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Would You Rather Be Lucky or Good? (1 Viewer)

How much of FF is luck and how much is skill?

  • 10% luck, 90% skill

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • 20% luck, 80% skill

    Votes: 2 2.3%
  • 30% luck, 70% skill

    Votes: 24 27.9%
  • 40% luck, 60% skill

    Votes: 15 17.4%
  • 50% luck, 50% skill

    Votes: 10 11.6%
  • 60% luck, 40% skill

    Votes: 8 9.3%
  • 70% luck, 30% skill

    Votes: 10 11.6%
  • 80% luck, 20% skill

    Votes: 8 9.3%
  • 90% luck, 10% skill

    Votes: 8 9.3%

  • Total voters
    86
One thing that is a skill that most people probably don't realize is actually knowing the rules of your league and how it affects players and their value.  This comes into huge play for IDP since IDP scoring is all over the place.  I play in an extremely big play scoring league which means guys like Von Miller and Z'Darius Smith are top 5-10 LB's every year but in almost every rankings I have ever seen they are after thoughts and down around 30 with some mention that they move up for "big play" scoring.  

Knowing the rule and how they apply is a skill not many people realize is very important.  

 
One thing that is a skill that most people probably don't realize is actually knowing the rules of your league and how it affects players and their value.  This comes into huge play for IDP since IDP scoring is all over the place.  I play in an extremely big play scoring league which means guys like Von Miller and Z'Darius Smith are top 5-10 LB's every year but in almost every rankings I have ever seen they are after thoughts and down around 30 with some mention that they move up for "big play" scoring.  

Knowing the rule and how they apply is a skill not many people realize is very important.  
Excellent point. IMO one of the most important things in FF. 

Every ranking/cheat sheet I do is league-format specific.  Also has to do with roster depth & starting positions.  For example, my priority on drafting WR (and value of WRs) will be different in a start-2 league to a start-3 league, or if it's a league with multiple flex positions. 

Little things that can definitely help you have an advantage. It's that extra step that's definitely gonna fall on the  "skill" side. But again - none of that is guaranteed to help. It just gives you a shot at better results. 

One can draft all the right players, and max out value for their scoring system & roster format. Still have to get lucky to win tho. ;)   

 
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A lot depends on how you are looking at it. If its today's game, luck will usually decide it, although skill will generally give one team an advantage going in. Over time, however, the players who win your league the most, those who make the finals often and quarter finals nearly every year are more skilled than the guys who seldom make the playoffs. Luck can conceivably impact this for stretches and can even create dramatic winning and losing streaks, but it is not hard to see what good moves a skilled player makes (great trades they make, waiver pickups, productive ends to drafts) when they are successful. Unfortunately, I too seldom see those moves BEFORE someone makes them, and so fail to gain the advantage they do. 

It is hard for me to believe that someone who is trying hard in a league can't see skill (which I use to include hard work) making a real difference over time. Does anyone think the repeat and 3-peat league champions aren't doing it better than the cellar dwellers? Do you think their year after year or two out of every three year dominance is just an endless run of blind luck?

 
Do you think their year after year or two out of every three year dominance is just an endless run of blind luck?


Of course not. But that’s an exaggeration. I played in a league with a dude who 3-peated. he drafted blind drunk one year, and forgot to set his lineup a bunch of times the next year. The 3rd year he was sober drafting & paid more attention & had his worst statistical season but won the championship anyway. It was incrediblY annoying. 

a 3-peat team in another league I was in is the most skilled FF player I know.  He plays in my IDP league & my dynasty league now. His last championship was like 6 years ago. He’s never made the playoffs in either. 

Which of their 6 combined championships were luck & which were skill? 

just sayin. It takes both. I agree that skill will often put one in the best position to have success, but no amount of skill will counter bad luck with schedule & injuries. And no amount of skill will save you from an opponent’s good luck in a given week. And if that’s a week you need to win to make the playoffs, all that skill might just go to waste. 

 
I voted 30% luck and 70% skill.

There are many layers to a FF season with varying degrees of luck and skill. 

The draft, sure we've all seen someone auto-draft and win the league, but I guarantee you we've all seen that auto-draft team in the bottom many more times than the top. Other than that, what is luck during an actual draft or auction? That guy passed on S Barkley at the 12/13 turn, so I got him @ 14. Is that luck? Or is that just how the cookie crumbled on this occasion? I don't see too much chance for a huge amount of luck during a draft. 

The regular season matchups is where the biggest luck happens, IMO. Playing that top scorer every week will likely lead to a bad season, but that is not a very likely scenario for most years.  A few unlucky weeks here and there sure, but not every week. With that said, most of the leagues I play, they reward a playoff spot or 2 to points leaders. It tends to stop and eliminate that kind of stuff. The head to head matchup is where the most luck can happen, I am not sure what the percentage of that would be. 

Weekly Lineup setting is another layer to the season that can have some luck components to it. Consistently benching the  wrong guys will quickly leave a salty taste in your mouth! But is that unlucky or just the wrong decision? 

Blind bidding is the best way to go, so I won't even talk any other FA possibilities. Bidding tends to eliminate some luck, but not always. A few years back, AP was on waivers around week 10 or so(the year he was suspended, I think?). So I put all my funds into trying to get him, it didn't happen for me as my bid included a defensive player drop that was deemed illegal due to roster requirements(a rule I was not aware of at the time). So I ended up with a 1$ CJ Anderson and I rode that SOB all the way to a championship! Now that was darn lucky on my part as I never would have picked up CJ was it not for my AP fumble. 

Playoffs, Some say it is all luck and in some ways it might be, but not really. I just try to put up a certain amount of points that week, if I do and lose, well that team had a better week than me, congrats! Is that lucky or unlucky? It does suck when your opponent's team goes off, yes it does! But is that due to being unlucky? Possibly. 

Injuries, well, they just happen and they are the biggest mind field of our favorite past time. Avoiding these injuries require a degree of luck for sure. 

Without a doubt, there is a luck factor to winning in FF. There is also very little doubt that skill will win out in the long run. 

Fun topic!
 

 
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Skill gets you to the playoffs between drafting, waivers, trades, etc… and great matchup lineup management. Then luck takes over in the offs, I believe. 

 
There’s obviously luck involved and the most egregious examples of getting lucky or unlucky make it easy to wanna say it’s all BS (and we’ve all seen em) but those are anecdotes and we remember em because they’re abnormal.

If your league has perennial contenders there’s skill involved. If an owner tends to hit on rookie sleepers or consistently farms a core asset or two off the wire every year or has a knack for selling before a guy craps the bed that makes a huge difference in their outcomes over a long period.

That doesn’t mean the most skilled owner wins every single year; of course there’s luck involved. One year all 5 of my teams lost in the semifinals. I’d like to think I was skilled to have all 5 teams in the semi’s; obviously luck intervened to take a bunch of money out of my pocket. But I remember that story because it’s uncommon.

I said 60/40 skill/luck

 
Voted 70% skill.  Over a long enough timeline the skilled players will win much more.  Similar to poker with the best cards, strategy, etc more often.  Of course, over a single 16-17 game season luck plays a huge factor in any one fantasy league.

 
There’s obviously luck involved and the most egregious examples of getting lucky or unlucky make it easy to wanna say it’s all BS (and we’ve all seen em) but those are anecdotes and we remember em because they’re abnormal.

If your league has perennial contenders there’s skill involved. If an owner tends to hit on rookie sleepers or consistently farms a core asset or two off the wire every year or has a knack for selling before a guy craps the bed that makes a huge difference in their outcomes over a long period.

That doesn’t mean the most skilled owner wins every single year; of course there’s luck involved. One year all 5 of my teams lost in the semifinals. I’d like to think I was skilled to have all 5 teams in the semi’s; obviously luck intervened to take a bunch of money out of my pocket. But I remember that story because it’s uncommon.

I said 60/40 skill/luck
Agree with much of your post except the bolded.

the thing is, it happens allllllll the time. The more memorable anecdotes are merely the most painful or the most celebrated ones, etched into our minds like the bad beats poker players experience.

take the Super Bowl, for example: I bet $100 on “over” 1.5 FG for TB.

1 FG made. They’re in 4th & 3 in FG range. A defender jumps offsides. 1st down ~> touchdown. 

You almost never see encroachment in that situation. 

That kind of stuff happens potentially every snap. One bad call by an ump, one unlucky tipped pass or a receiving dropping a ball that hits them on the hands - a catch they make 999/1000x. It just happens. Some games your top 10 WR will be seemingly covered with invisible juice & get 1-2 receptions instead of the 7-8 they’ve averaged. Your choosing him for your lineup may have been a skillful decision based on hours of pouring over matchups and research vs your other options - and it still might matter as much as a fart in the wind. 

Basically everything that happens on the field is out of your control, thus your “skill” has zero to do with the outcome of your fantasy matchup. 

You can draft well, set your lineup well, pick up the right FAs or make good trades - and none of it really matters once the ball is in play. 

Once the whistle blows, it’s all luck. It’s why I’m firmly “team 30/70”. 

 
Agree with much of your post except the bolded.

the thing is, it happens allllllll the time. The more memorable anecdotes are merely the most painful or the most celebrated ones, etched into our minds like the bad beats poker players experience.

take the Super Bowl, for example: I bet $100 on “over” 1.5 FG for TB.

1 FG made. They’re in 4th & 3 in FG range. A defender jumps offsides. 1st down ~> touchdown. 

You almost never see encroachment in that situation. 

That kind of stuff happens potentially every snap. One bad call by an ump, one unlucky tipped pass or a receiving dropping a ball that hits them on the hands - a catch they make 999/1000x. It just happens. Some games your top 10 WR will be seemingly covered with invisible juice & get 1-2 receptions instead of the 7-8 they’ve averaged. Your choosing him for your lineup may have been a skillful decision based on hours of pouring over matchups and research vs your other options - and it still might matter as much as a fart in the wind. 

Basically everything that happens on the field is out of your control, thus your “skill” has zero to do with the outcome of your fantasy matchup. 

You can draft well, set your lineup well, pick up the right FAs or make good trades - and none of it really matters once the ball is in play. 

Once the whistle blows, it’s all luck. It’s why I’m firmly “team 30/70”. 
I mean, sure, once the whistle blows luck is significantly involved. Is it *all* luck? Or even more than half?

Keeping in mind an injury or bad bounce can happen to the on-paper worse team just as easily as the better one? You just don’t notice because it didn’t alter the result from the expected one.

So how you answer the question depends how you’re defining it, as others are alluding to. Are we talking about winning the grand prize? Finishing in the money? Making the playoffs? Winning the specific week? Sustained profitability over several years/leagues? The breakdown varies for each. But I’d hazard a guess that for any of them, over a large sample size, it’s not a random distribution and the better team outperforms the worse team on average, so any response that’s more than half luck seems odd.

The poker analogy is a good one. You have to get a good hand, sure, but so does everyone else, so as the sample size increases and the statistical distributions even out the skilled pros are going to cook the noobs on aggregate, even though plenty of individual hands will go the other way

 
I mean, sure, once the whistle blows luck is significantly involved. Is it *all* luck? Or even more than half?

Keeping in mind an injury or bad bounce can happen to the on-paper worse team just as easily as the better one? You just don’t notice because it didn’t alter the result from the expected one.

So how you answer the question depends how you’re defining it, as others are alluding to. Are we talking about winning the grand prize? Finishing in the money? Making the playoffs? Winning the specific week? Sustained profitability over several years/leagues? The breakdown varies for each. But I’d hazard a guess that for any of them, over a large sample size, it’s not a random distribution and the better team outperforms the worse team on average, so any response that’s more than half luck seems odd.

The poker analogy is a good one. You have to get a good hand, sure, but so does everyone else, so as the sample size increases and the statistical distributions even out the skilled pros are going to cook the noobs on aggregate, even though plenty of individual hands will go the other way
I don’t disagree. That’s why I attribute 30% to skill. 

but you play….to win….the game. 
 

you play…to win….the game. 
/Herm

I consider myself a fairly skilled FF manager. I consistently draft well, I pour hours of research into matchups & meticulously set my lineup to put myself in a position of success. 

And most years I cash. I’ll get points total, make the playoffs 6/10 times over the course of a decade, win $ for 3rd or 4th place, maybe even pick up an in-season prize. One could call that “success”.

But like our good friend Herm says, winning is everything. And winning has a lot to do with how lucky anyone is in a given season for a given league. 

 
But how many people actually want to diminish or remove the luck factor?  There are things you can do to potentially swing it more to the skill side - auction draft, FAAB instead of waivers, all play instead of H2H schedule, doubleheader matchups, remove K or DST, I've even seen Team QB as a roster slot so if Rodgers breaks his collarbone in the first quarter of the first game after you traded for him (like I did), you're not completely sunk for the week.  PPR, 1/2 PPR, PPFD, TEP scoring, IDP's, superflexes.  Even best ball leagues (which may actually increase the luck factor?  I dunno, I don't play them...) 

Then you run into Kamara's 6 TD game in the finals, and it's all for naught lol.  I voted 40% luck but now I'm wishing I'd voted higher...

 
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But how many people actually want to diminish or remove the luck factor?  There are things you can do to potentially swing it more to the skill side - auction draft, FAAB instead of waivers, all play instead of H2H schedule, doubleheader matchups, remove K or DST, I've even seen Team QB as a roster slot so if Rodgers breaks his collarbone in the first quarter of the first game after you traded for him (like I did), you're not completely sunk for the week.  PPR, 1/2 PPR, PPFD, TEP scoring, IDP's, superflexes.  Even best ball leagues (which may actually increase the luck factor?  I dunno, I don't play them...) 

Then you run into Kamara's 6 TD game in the finals, and it's all for naught lol.  I voted 40% luck but now I'm wishing I'd voted higher...
This is an interesting question. I certainly wouldn't - it's what makes gambling in general, and FF specifically exciting & entertaining. When you're near the end of a game & your WR hauls in an 82 yard TD to give you the points and bonuses and the W and you're standing up shouting "go! go! go! YAAAAAASSS!" - isn't that why we play? It must be an incredibly boring game for anyone who doesn't get that excited about such things, but hey, I won't judge people for how they watch or root. 

I'm betting those who voted 80% or 90% skill would very much like to eliminate the luck factor.  To them, the luck is what interferes with their skillful approach. They would win the league every year if it weren't for their bad luck or their opponent's good luck (same thing?) 

I suspect there's a sentiment among a certain contingent of FF managers that they're playing chess. 

While it's not quite as luck-based as winning the lottery, it's certainty not as much about skill as chess is (or, IMO, as the 70/30 crowd here suggests). And by that I don't mean to say that skill doesn't matter, and hard work shouldn't be admired, But in the information age, as I and others like @Gally have suggested, an unskilled player is equally able to access the information provided by skilled players. The low-information/low-skill manager can easily access experts like Dodds or Waldman who have literally made careers out of being skilled in their evaluations. FF managers who play on Sportsline get spoon-fed updates by Richard, Eisenberg or Cummings. Then they can tune into 50 different podcasts, or just watch the FF segments on NFL.com or listen to FSR on the way to work.  An entire industry has emerged to share that expertise. A FF manager would almost have to be deliberately obtuse to not have their information elevated. They don't need to be skilled so long as they're following the advice of people who are skilled. 

So wouldn't that dramatically close the gap between the skilled and unskilled to the point where no one should be a Taco in your league? 

If that's true, then the entire construct of "a skilled manager" becomes a fiction to some degree. And if everyone is skilled, then the % of luck needed to succeed dramatically increases. 

More of a philosophical commentary I guess, but it's a fascinating subject, to me at least.  

 
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I answered 90/10 in favor of luck.  I was basing that on winning the Super Bowl any given year.  After all, that is what you play for so that is how I answered it.  I also agree that skill is a big factor in sustained success in getting to playoffs, top points, overall winning record, etc and that it is necessary to sustain an overall successful career in fantasy football.  So I guess the answer can really be the entire spectrum of choices based on how you are specifically looking at "success".  

Another factor I utilized in answering the pole was a progression from when I started (1985) until now.   Luck percentage has raised significantly from 1985 until now due to the boom of the industry and the sheer volume of information available at the click of a keyboard.  So that raised my luck percentage quite a bit in my answer.  The info is there.  There are no sleepers anymore.  Autodraft has drafted better than a human every time it has been used in my leagues mainly because the owner that utilized it wasn't a skilled player so the autodraft did better than him taking out his drafting of the 3rd TE off his favorite team in the 8th round because he just knows he is breaking out.  It was his only money placement ever in 10 years.

That shows me skill is necessary but you can minimize lack of skill by just going off the standardized rankings every year and be competitive.  

 
Luck percentage has raised significantly from 1985 until now due to the boom of the industry and the sheer volume of information available at the click of a keyboard.  So that raised my luck percentage quite a bit in my answer.  The info is there.  There are no sleepers anymore. 
IMO this is the single biggest factor in the evolution (or devolution, depending) of the game. 

And your comment about autodraft was spot on. AI won't factor in favorite teams or players, and AI won't miss a player who's statistically more likely to score more points. Sometimes you get all :wub:  over a player sliding to you & miss the better value at another position. AI will never do that. 

 
Just headed over here from the other thread. Amazingly I voted for the most common block. 30% luck 70% skill. I agree with comments on the other thread that the word "skill" gets used loosely. And there is a ton of truth to the idea that people (like me) are capitalizing on the laziness and/or lack of quality competition. It is certainly true that it doesn't make me smart or skilled to simply be in position to take advantage of bad play by my opponents. 

So what does make a FF player "skilled" or "better" than average? Well that's a big question that I don't wanna get into at the moment, but to piggyback off the train of thought in that other thread, I would offer this:

There are a lot of FF opponents that put a ton of work into this and suck at it. This isn't *just* about putting in work and being in a position to succeed where others are lazy. That is a thing that exists but many opponents are just really not that great at this and want to make the *lazy* argument that it is just about luck.

Would I rather be lucky than good? Yes and it isn't close.

 
There are a lot of FF opponents that put a ton of work into this and suck at it. This isn't *just* about putting in work and being in a position to succeed where others are lazy. That is a thing that exists but many opponents are just really not that great at this and want to make the *lazy* argument that it is just about luck.
This is a good observation. It's not just the quantity of work, but the quality. 

This year I made a concentrated effort to filter the noise & only dive deep to the FF writers I believe were above & beyond the others in approach & understanding. I started topics here to get the best of the best shark feedback (like the "TE4-6" topic) to help me understand why I should elevate or fade some targets. Prior to that, for example, I was pretty high on Higbee - on the surface everything seemed to add up to a very productive season. But as some contributed additional information, I started to fade him more. Likewise with Thomas (with Fitzmagic not really utilizing his TEs much) and others for various reasons. Once you get past the easy narratives and really dissect the players situations, you can divine much more useful information to aid in making projections for players. 

In years past I was a sponge - I would absorb every piece of analysis on players I was interested in, and often all that did was reinforce my bias. 

This year I started getting more into projecting targets & target share & it led me to players I'd sort of overlooked like DJ Moore - and while Moore isn't the breakout stud he started the season as, his floor has been pretty attractive. 

So yes - it's not just a matter of lazy vs industrious - it's the quality of effort.  

Would I rather be lucky than good? Yes and it isn't close.
100% of the time. 

 
I also voted for 30% luck and 70% skill.  I think that for the regular season, and then it's primarily luck the rest of the way.  Anyone who thinks it's just luck......in my main league (23 years), 3 guys in the league have won 13 of the 23 titles.  (I am one of those guys with 4 titles).   There is a reason for that.

There is a lot of information available.  The skill is how to use the information.  Players that suck at FF assume last year's stats will apply to this year, and good FF players can identify what has changed and adjust projections accordingly.  Good FF players can see a player breaking out before he does.....preemptively picks them up.  Good FF can make adjustments on the fly, understands trends, and makes key trades by selling high and buying low. 

So I agree with barackdhouse.  You can put in effort and suck because you're focusing on the wrong things.

But FF is a very volatile game, and luck will still be a material factor.

 
I also voted for 30% luck and 70% skill.  I think that for the regular season, and then it's primarily luck the rest of the way.  Anyone who thinks it's just luck......in my main league (23 years), 3 guys in the league have won 13 of the 23 titles.  (I am one of those guys with 4 titles).   There is a reason for that.

There is a lot of information available.  The skill is how to use the information.  Players that suck at FF assume last year's stats will apply to this year, and good FF players can identify what has changed and adjust projections accordingly.  Good FF players can see a player breaking out before he does.....preemptively picks them up.  Good FF can make adjustments on the fly, understands trends, and makes key trades by selling high and buying low. 

So I agree with barackdhouse.  You can put in effort and suck because you're focusing on the wrong things.

But FF is a very volatile game, and luck will still be a material factor.
I put luck higher simply because outcomes are entirely unpredictable, and player health falls squarely into the “luck” category.

Ridley got *crushed* on a play this week, and I gulped hard. He was back out there in a couple plays, but it had the look of a multi-game absence when it happened, 

no amount of skilled research can save you from one badly timed hit that KO’s a top asset.

Havung a roster stay healthy in a game of attrition is a huge luck factor. 

 
depending on league type, more than 50% of it is luck. I've had multiple seasons where I was the highest scoring team only to not make the playoffs. Being the second or third highest scoring team each week only to lose to the highest scoring team is what drives me crazy.

 
I went 50/50.  Your regular season record is more skill than luck but once you hit the playoffs, in a 1 and done situation, way more luck is involved 

 
depending on league type, more than 50% of it is luck. I've had multiple seasons where I was the highest scoring team only to not make the playoffs. Being the second or third highest scoring team each week only to lose to the highest scoring team is what drives me crazy.
There are a couple ways to combat that

1) play doubleheaders

2) Have a couple of wildcards based on points scored.  So say you have 6 teams make the playoffs.  4 make it by record and the 2 highest scorers of the rest make it as wildcards.

 
There are a couple ways to combat that

1) play doubleheaders

2) Have a couple of wildcards based on points scored.  So say you have 6 teams make the playoffs.  4 make it by record and the 2 highest scorers of the rest make it as wildcards.


I quit playing 5 years ago, but went with #2 for our solution.

 
A few of you know, I play a ton of poker. I have actually played "exclusively" instead of working since 1999.

 Several of of us have a saying, the age old question always was "Would you rather be lucky than good?" .

 I've always answered the same way.   "I'd rather be lucky TONIGHT, but for the year I'd rather be good". 

 Fantasy is no different.

We've always said "skill gets you to the playoffs, but a little luck once you get in certainly helps."

 TZM

 
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I think it’s more luck now than ever

It used to be that if you put your time in, worked the wire etc, you definitely had a leg up on a lot of your competitors

Now there is so much info out there, everyone has the internet in their pocket at all times…I mean, all the league hosting site spoon feed so much info now that it’s too easy

you HAVE TO get lucky to win now

 
I went 50/50.  Your regular season record is more skill than luck but once you hit the playoffs, in a 1 and done situation, way more luck is involved 


This is where I fall.  What happens in a given week is mostly luck.   But it's usually skill and attentiveness that wins out over the course of a 13-14 week regular season.   Outlier seasons where there's no regression to the mean is definitely a thing though.

One 53-47 decision is practically a coin flip.  Make a series of 53-47 decisions and you're generally going to finish with more wins than losses.

 
depending on league type, more than 50% of it is luck. I've had multiple seasons where I was the highest scoring team only to not make the playoffs. Being the second or third highest scoring team each week only to lose to the highest scoring team is what drives me crazy.
The 3rd highest scoring team in my 12-team IDP right now is 1-6; in dead last. Luck is huge. 

 
If you're "lucky" enough to be in a guppy league, then "good" works, but you may still need a little luck.

In a Shark Pool... all you got is luck. And the good and bad luck usually shows up in the form of "points against"... which annually decides our winners.

Not speaking to those that were "good" enough to grab Cooper Kupp 1st overall... you people really are GOOD! 😳

 
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Man, this is a long thread with very long posts. Opinions are like ### holes, everyone has one and they usually stink 😄. Mine is no better so take it for what its worth.

My biggest issue with all this is the high level of hubris / narcissism / false sense of superior that is inherent in fantasy football. Not everyone, but the FF community at large and in general think they are way better than they really are and try to make this into a skill game to enhance their sense of self. 

Not naming names... But everytime someone goes off they say "I KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN, 100% SKILL, FOLLOW ME I'M A GENIUS."

Everytime someone busts someone claims, "HAHA you didn't know that would happen? You lack skill, X, Y, and Z were present you just ignored it."

That's part of the fun and I get it, but it's just wrong. And anyone truly believes in skill should have the humility to understand this. If you truly want to be good, you need to acknowledge that you cannot evaluate whether a strategy or call is right based on its outcome. For every potential positive outcome, there was also a very real potential negative outcome.

People say Trey Sermon is skilled. Matt Waldman spends his life researching players and that is a real skill in understanding what talents a player needs to be successful. It's a skill that has a real job in the real world. But even with this skill, he makes so many mistakes on whether players are going to be a stud or bust. Because talent is only one part. You can impart lessons from this and say you can incorporate this into your strategy going forward but like no two scenarios are alike. You are just as likely to misapply this strategy as you are to apply it correctly. The guy had a chance to be great. Based on our knowledge in pre-season we had good reason to pick him on round 7. You can't really learn anything from this scenario except that you have to accept that there were multiple possibilities for this guy which was ALWAYS TRUE from the get go. Trying to assess probabilities for this is assinine because you don't know the true probabilities. 

Same thing with a guy like Henry. He did very well. People say in hindsight that you should ignore claims that people with his level of production will fall off a cliff. But you could apply this lesson next year and the opposite happens. Who was right? Were you only right this year but not next? Thats contradictory. All you know is that there are no rules and that both scenarios are possible.

That's where luck comes in. You need to humble yourself to not think you are smart enough to know all outcomes but accept that there are multiple possible outcomes for every player. People fall in love with Ty'sons, Allen Robinsons, and when they are right they will claim genius. When they are wrong they will say in the long run it will pay off. Or you could say the person is a bad manager because he picked wrong and people who picked Chase and Kupp were geniuses for seeing this all along.

Do you guys get what I'm saying? There is skill involved, but not people mistake luck for skill all the time. And that's okay, you should gets some wins and feel good about yourself. But be humble enough to understand that you aren't smarter than the rest of us, you're just a tad bit luckier.

 
Funny food for thought. In highly competitive leagues where everyone has similar skill, I'm told what you need to do is not make the same moves as everyone else and do the optimal draft VBD strategy. You have to reach, stack, and hope to get lucky. Encouraging randomness is the key because the only thing that differentiates you guys is luck. So if you pick 3 guys from the same team and you were lucky enough to pick the right team that goes off then you could be set.

How messed up is that, that the skilled play is to cede your own skill and bow down to luck? Is that skill or luck? 

Also, poker analogies, if you ever seen the movie rounders there's a scene where matt daemon says if you can't spot the fish you are the fish... Well, notice that the rounders don't go after each other with similar skill cause they can't win money that way. They go after the one person who is inferior. FF is similar.

Your advantage is to punish those who are weaker. When up against similar skills, you can't win by reading more articles or doing 10 page analysis and watching film. They see the value in the draft and go after same guys if given the chance. They go after same waiver wire pickups. They do same things you do. There is no higher level as the skill cap isn't that high. You just need to dominate weaker foes by picking up value draft guys they passed on, owning them in trades, and abusing the fact that they don't know who the WW pickup of the week is. Thats why people want to say its skill but they are really just big fish in small ponds.

 
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I've been playing FF since the 1990s, and IMHO, luck is a major factor in winning anything.

I'll use my current keeper season as an example. I dropped known injury carriers like Carson and Julio before the season began, and never looked back. I drafted Gus Edwards as my second RB, and the next morning after our draft he's out for the season. Jeudy was on his way to a big first game, and he's out until week 8. I've lost depth at certain points all season, including my starting kicker, (Blankenship, J Williams, Gallup, Sanders, and Penny). So I've picked up guys like Patterson, McKissic, Collins, Kirk, and Bullock to cover. During this season, I lead the league in points scored by 111 over the next guy, yet I sit in 3rd. I keep getting everyone's best games non-stop. We use standard scoring, and while the top two teams are 4-0 and 5-0 when scoring 100+, I'm 5-2. I've never scored less than 87, yet I'm 1-3 when scoring 87 to 99. Top team is 3-3 when scoring 68 to 87. Second place team has won scoring 54, LOL.

So now, another new speed bump emerges as I have lost the King, who has led me to two first place finishes in a row. No reason to moan because I signed up knowing the luck factor involved, and there will be seasons where it's an uphill climb, no matter what you do. I still have Mahomes, Evans, Hock, and an emerging Pittman, but the writing was on the wall when Gus went down the morning after, as it was a sign I've seen before. You draft the best you can, work that waiver, but the rest is lying in the hands of luck. There's no fighting it when it goes against you, and it's all roses when it works in your favor. Just ride the waves.

 
This is mostly lucky now...don't kid yourself

Unless you are playing absolute newbs there is no rhyme or reason to any of it

Not a single brilliant FF mind was telling you to pick up Elijah mitchell

 

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