TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Yeah I can't figure out why there's not more talk about this guy.
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WR Allen Robinson (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
I just traded for him in a contract league after keeping an eye on him for a few weeks and was surprised the other owner let him go.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
OK, what am I in for here?
The guy who offered me Evans for Gurley last week - my response "get back to me when you're ready to part with Julio" - just offered me Robinson for Justin Forsett.
Not making that up. He won the title last year riding his WW darling. Funny how people get hung up on a guy they loved/hated in the past.
Anyway, that schedule...omg omg omg. Plus I'm stacking him with Bortles.
I did good, right?
The guy who offered me Evans for Gurley last week - my response "get back to me when you're ready to part with Julio" - just offered me Robinson for Justin Forsett.
Not making that up. He won the title last year riding his WW darling. Funny how people get hung up on a guy they loved/hated in the past.
Anyway, that schedule...omg omg omg. Plus I'm stacking him with Bortles.
I did good, right?
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I'd say that's an even trade, value-wise. But I would definitely take the Robinson side because of the playoff schedule. Yep.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The FBGs 200 Forward Value (not projection but presumably same as VBD to compare across different positions, taking into account scarcity) has this +4 in my favor. Not lopsided but seems somewhat significant. Full PPR.
As it turns out it helps both of us - traded strength for strength to upgrade weakness.
Been following Robinson since he was at Orchard Lake St Marys. Had him last year as a WR3 & his injury weakened me going into the playoffs. Pretty stoked.
(Redraft)
Jack White
Footballguy
You did great, but not because you have Bortles.
I wish this "stacking" myth would die.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Considering offering Beckham for Robinson. Am I nuts?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Trying to not turn this into an AC question, but I would also be giving up McCoy for Murray. Im just high on Robinson and feel like his potential is huge for the playoffs. Picked up Bortles this week too after seeing him being more consistent and seeing the playoff scheduleMaybe I'm reading too much into it... I agreed with trading Julio because of his playoff schedule. At the end of the day stud players are stud players
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
On pace for like 80/1350/12. Has a very nice playoff fantasy schedule, too.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Not me. It creates all kinds of sell-high and buy-low opportunities to take advantage of.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Because owners arbitrarily assign more/less value to players based on if they can stack or not. I completed a trade last year for Manning that had been an open offer for about 3 weeks prior. The guys answer "He wasn't worth that, but now that I got Sanders I'm willing to pay more for Manning".
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
That is totally dependent on the owner though. In general, stacking or avoiding it isn't going to present better trade opportunities.
My leagues typically have very few trades anyhow (most redrafts dont), and maybe I get less offers because my team is usually up at the top, but I dont see people trying to stack or avoid doing so in my leagues.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
But we're not talking in general. We're talking about those that buy into the "myth" of stacking as you put it. That's why I don't want it to die. The longer it's perpetuated, the more people that buy into it, the more chances that will come along.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Anyone worried about a little rain tonight in Jacksonville or am I just overthinking?
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Strategy question - does anyone consider it even a slight advantage to start the QB of a WR who is on your opponent's team? For example, I am going against Robinson tonight and can use either Bortles or Matt Ryan this week. I know Ryan has been a disappointment this year, but leaving that aside, would anyone make the tie-breaker in a decision like that to go with the QB who is throwing to the WR you are facing? Not a WDIS question, more a question of neutralizing or attempting to neutralize one of my opponents best players.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Should be light & dissipating, likely stop around kickoff or during the first half, no or low wind. Should be fine weather wise, field drains well. I'm anticipating minimal impact from weather.
packer_junkie
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
It doesn't matter at all. A receiver can have an excellent fantasy week while the QB throwing to him might still just have a mediocre week.
Example: 100/1 is a great day for a WR, but the QB may have only thrown 150/1 and 3 INTs.
The opposite can happen too, if the QB only targets other receivers.
Bottom line is, don't take your opponent's roster into account at all. Choose who you think will score more for your team this week, Bortles or Ryan.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
No, actually, it does matter. Generally only in close cases, though.
And this is one of those. Bortles and Ryan are ranked back-to-back by experts on FP, so it's reasonable to expect them to put up similar performances.
In such a case, you want to minimize variance when you're the favorite in your H2H matchup, and maximize variance when your'e the underdog. That means start Bortles if you're the favorite - you want to hedge against AR having a monster night for your opponent, and the only real way to do that is to plug in his QB. But start Ryan if you're the underdog - since if he has a big game your opponent won't benefit, whereas it's difficult to see Bortles having a big night without Robinson getting at least a decent slice of that pie.
H2H fantasy is just that - head-to-head. The goal isn't to score the most possible points - it's to score more points than your opponent. Easy to forget sometimes.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Starting Bortles over Stafford because my opponent has Hurns.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Frank Black
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree. I think it comes down to playing your players who you believe will score the most points. This time of the season illustrates this the most, when team records are close, and it begins to sink in that overall points may be the difference between making the playoffs.That said, I have both Allen brothers and I sometimes play them both when I've benched Diggs during his slump. I'd rather diversify but I'm more compelled by the likelihood of higher points.
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LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I agree that statistics over the long haul will display covariance, but personally I believe it's overthinking it to take that into account in decisions for a Thursday game, or even early Sunday games. There are too many other variables (players) remaining for both H2H teams. The only exception for me is the rare occurrence when I can make a decision after most of the other variables have been removed, i.e. heading into Sunday Night or Monday Night games. Then I might make choices based on "safe" plays or "high reward/risk" guys depending on the score in my matchup. And even then it would be easy to screw yourself over.
10 times out of 10 the best way give yourself a shot at scoring more points than your opponent is to choose the QB on your team that scores the most points that week.
Dizzy
Footballguy
mr roboto
Footballguy
Flap #####es. A lot.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, he is impressive. I actually felt like he was overrated in the offseason based on what he showed as a rookie, but he has come through in a big way.
I took him in 5/9 rookie drafts last year and still have him in 4/9 leagues. I felt like that Matthews/Latimer/Adams/Lee cluster was a bit of a minefield and I'm glad that I made the right call by prioritizing Robinson over that group. 1.5+ years into their careers, he has already lapped some of those pretenders. I felt like he had the "it" factor at PSU and he looks even better today. He was so young when he came out for the draft that he may have had a little extra physical development in the tank. His size is an asset that he uses well. He still doesn't have burner speed, but he's a natural with the ball in the air and he can shake people in routes to find separation. Has to be settling in as a consensus top 10 dynasty WR right about now...
I took him in 5/9 rookie drafts last year and still have him in 4/9 leagues. I felt like that Matthews/Latimer/Adams/Lee cluster was a bit of a minefield and I'm glad that I made the right call by prioritizing Robinson over that group. 1.5+ years into their careers, he has already lapped some of those pretenders. I felt like he had the "it" factor at PSU and he looks even better today. He was so young when he came out for the draft that he may have had a little extra physical development in the tank. His size is an asset that he uses well. He still doesn't have burner speed, but he's a natural with the ball in the air and he can shake people in routes to find separation. Has to be settling in as a consensus top 10 dynasty WR right about now...
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
Love the guy but man there are some monsters up there. Julio, Dez, OBJ, Nuk, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Demaryius, Cooper, Evans, Watkins. Not saying he isn't top 5 but that's a tough group. I think he's definitely in the mix in there and definitely in my top 10.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Top 5 is a big stretch IMO.
Julio, Dez, OBJ, Nuk,, Antonio Brown (not to mention some others)
So you have all 5 of these guys on at least one of your dynasty rosters. Which one are you trading straight up for Robinson?
Julio, Dez, OBJ, Nuk,, Antonio Brown (not to mention some others)
So you have all 5 of these guys on at least one of your dynasty rosters. Which one are you trading straight up for Robinson?
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Impossible right now, WR is too talented, young, and productive at the top. Maybe in a few years when Green, Dez, DT, Julio hit that less sexy age Calvin hit a year or two ago. Owners just need to be glad they've got a great talent who can produce at the level that those guys can, and get over the fact that their player won't be recognized as a top-5 asset in such a deep field.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Yeah. I don't see top 5 either. I think he will be one that constantly stays around the 7-10 range, and will always provide a good ROI for fantasy drafts. The one thing he currently has going for him is that the Jags always play from behind. What he currently lacks though is that the Jags aren't refined enough yet to install the goal-line passing plays yet. As Bortles progresses, this should hopefully change.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I have to give big props to Matt Harmon. He was pimping for WR Allen Robison hard all offseason. I had him but was thinking about moving him but Harmon kept yammering on and on about him so I listened and held out. He was told by some media folks in Jacksonville that A-Rob was tearing it up in the offseason and was poised for a monster season.
Also if Bortles was a lil-better and could hit that corner fade then the 6'3 A-Rob would be a perfect RZ threat but it seems they don't use it. Not sure why but its maddening. I have to question the OC because that doesn't seem to be a staple of their RZ offense when it obviously should be. Instead they use the weak underneath stuff to Hurns or attempt to run it and we saw last night that strategy is limited.
I think Robinson has the talent to be a top-five WR but the situation is holding him back.
Also if Bortles was a lil-better and could hit that corner fade then the 6'3 A-Rob would be a perfect RZ threat but it seems they don't use it. Not sure why but its maddening. I have to question the OC because that doesn't seem to be a staple of their RZ offense when it obviously should be. Instead they use the weak underneath stuff to Hurns or attempt to run it and we saw last night that strategy is limited.
I think Robinson has the talent to be a top-five WR but the situation is holding him back.
petenice15
Footballguy
The knock on him if I remember correctly was that he was soft and wasn't aggressive enough. Last night on the long pass up the left side line, he out jumped 2 defenders and grabbed the ball out of the air. He is really developing into a weapon.
Ted Mullins
Footballguy
Same here, not sure if he posts on here but I ended up with A Rob on all three of my teams due entirely to Harmon's article. O/T but I remember him also being really high on Crabtree and Stevie Johnson (been at least decent when healthy) as well.
Don't think I could see him as top 5 but that's really just due to WR being so talented - assuming he's going a round or two later than the top end guys next year in redraft I will be very interested.
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