jacobo_moses
Footballguy
Different skillsets and stature. But the point is a top 15 WR in the league that has a high catch % and can be used multiple ways.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
WR Brandin Cooks, Free Agent (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter lardonastick
- Start date
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I've bought him in every league I can
Nero
Footballguy
2016 targets: Thomas, Cooks, Snead, Fleener, Ingram, Cadet
2017 targets: Thomas, Snead, Ginn, Kamara, Fleener, Ingram
So in essence, Cooks/Cadet will be replaced with Ginn/Kamara. I wouldn't call it just plugging in anyone. I'd expect Brees to keep humming along as usual.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ted Ginn's career has been much less efficient that Brandin Cooks.
Ted Ginn 51.7% career catch percentage 7.1 yards per target
Brandin Cooks 68.3% catch rate 9.0 yards per target
It will be interesting to see if Brees causes Ginn to be a more efficient player or not. He is 32 years old now. Pretty sure Ginn is who he is.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
Cooks will be awesome and is a buy now.... but there are a lot of mouths to feed in NE so expect the occasional quiet game where Gronk is featured, Hogan, Edelman etc.... the Pats coach too well to predictably focus on one guy all the time, every game. The main positive is that Brady and him seem to be jibing already. If Brady doesn't feel it Cooks makes too many mental errors, drops... he will be a bust but that would be the longshot.
Boston
Footballguy
For the most part you know right away whether a WR will boom or bust in New England...there isn't much of a middle ground with Brady's trust or the ability to pick-up this offense...the fact Cooks is looking good from the get-go is a very positive sign...
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As I mentioned in the Burkhead thread, reports from OTA's carry little weight with me. Between last year and this year, Foster has been exceptional both years and has made some incredible catch and runs. So far that hasn't translated into playing time. This year, all the RB's have been observed as looking greqat, having burst, having good vision, etc. It's pretty easy to look good when it's two hand touch and there's no tackling.
I supposed it's better to hear that Cooks and Brady have been clicking, but we are a long ways away from that carrying any weight.
Boston
Footballguy
Don't agree as far as WRs go...for the most part WRs that have busted with the Pats have looked lost right away...look at the history (and there's a long one) of new WRs be it rookies or free agents and if they were lost early it usually remained that way...now that doesn't mean Cooks is gonna go for 1,500 yards because there is a long way to go but it does mean a big hurdle has been jumped as far as him being a productive player for them...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Edelman signing an extension recently somewhat puts the kibosh on speculation about Cooks being used in a similar high volume possession receiver role.
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
What a weapon to have for quick screens, dumpoffs. I look forward to this season.
Boston
Footballguy
I never saw that role happening (i.e. like Edelman)...that role in the Patriot offense requires the WR to take a constant a**-kicking...both Welker and Edelman have taken more than their fair share of abuse...I don't see Cooks built for that it or it being a good use of his skills...when it comes to a player like Cooks with the Patriots you are betting on the skill and how much you think he has...for all the "mouths to feed" fear if you look at BB he always rides a very talented player...whether it is Dillon (yes, a RB), Moss, Welker or Gronk those guys always got their numbers...if Cooks is the real deal I see him getting his numbers regardless of who else is out there...so in the end it is up to each individual Owner to figure out how much skill they think he has...
Last edited by a moderator:
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I don't know what his roll is going to be but let's not overthink this like many people did when Dallas drafted Zeke. Cooks being traded to NE is HUGE!!!! It's a match made in Heaven! If you own Cooks enjoy the ride it will be fun.
This is the same offense that made Hogan look like a stud!
Cooks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hogan
Tex
This is the same offense that made Hogan look like a stud!
Cooks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hogan
Tex
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He was used in a similar way in college (not exclusively but he can do that too.) With Edelman previously being in the last year of his contract, I think it was fair to envision him possibly filling a similar role in the offense. That just seems less likely now is all.
Cooks a very talented player imo .He still likely commands 120 targets. There would be more upside for him to hit 150 targets with Edelman out of the picture, which previously could have been something to hope for in 2018 if Edelman had not been extended. It is a difference of about 20 receptions on the upside, which maybe was a pipe dream to begin with, but I have seen Cooks utilized in similar fashion. I think he could do it.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
While there is a chance that Cooks could explode, I would temper my enthusiasm some. Edelman is going to get a ton of targets. Gronk if playing will get his the games he suits up. White is going to get 5-6 receptions a week. IMO, Cooks will have to share a lot. I haven't put projections for the Pats offense together yet, but at first blush I don't see Cooks getting force fed the football.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Cooks is cut from that Hill (KC) mode he doesn't need too many passes. If (I believe in Brady) they get him the ball in a way that they can maximize his talent he just need 5-7 touches a game.
Tex
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Five touches a game is essentially what he got in NOS. Only slot receivers have averaged that in NE. In the Brady era, Moss had one year where he averaged 6 touches a game.
I would guess Cooks might do a little more with his touches than he did in NOS, but I am not so sure he gets 100 receptions or monster TDs. I still thdon't MJ too many mouths to feed if everyone is healthy (which admittedly isn't all that often).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Over the last 3 seasons the Patriots have averaged 587 passing attempts.
The last time Gronk and Edelman were both healthy for most of the games was 2014 so distribution might look something like that. I am assuming they will pass more without Blount and so many weapons in the passing game.
In 2014 Edelman had 134 targets in 14 games. Gronk had 131 targets in 15 games Lafell had 119 targets. Brady threw 582 times that year, so this leaves about 200 targets for other players.
It might be safer to project Cooks for 100 targets as the medium range, but if Lafell can get that many with both Edelman and Gronk mostly healthy, I think Cooks can get 120 as well.
The last time Gronk and Edelman were both healthy for most of the games was 2014 so distribution might look something like that. I am assuming they will pass more without Blount and so many weapons in the passing game.
In 2014 Edelman had 134 targets in 14 games. Gronk had 131 targets in 15 games Lafell had 119 targets. Brady threw 582 times that year, so this leaves about 200 targets for other players.
It might be safer to project Cooks for 100 targets as the medium range, but if Lafell can get that many with both Edelman and Gronk mostly healthy, I think Cooks can get 120 as well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Since you brought this up, I did a little research. OK, maybe a lot of research. Since Edelman took over for Welker, there were 37 games where Edelman, Gronk, and Brady all played together between the regular season and playoffs (and one of those guys didn't leave early with an injury). Here was the breakdown of how this played out on average:Biabreakable said:
Edelman: 6.6 receptions
Gronk: 5.7 receptions
All RB's combined: 5.5 receptions
All other WR's combined: 6.6 receptions
All other TE's combined: 1.8 receptions
Lots of things to review here. For starters, JE and RG only played together in half of the regular season games over the past 4 seasons, so there certainly could be a lot of opportunities for others if these guys get dinged. As far as the season LaFell did really well, NE didn't have much depth behind him. Amendola was hurt (I know, water is wet). The other options were Aaron Dobson (bust), Kenbrell Thompkins (UDFA), and Brian Tymes (another UDFA).
The depth this year includes Amendola (still Mr. Glass), Malcolm Mitchell (showed a lot of promise last year), Chris Hogan (did really well last year), and Andrew Hawkins (who I doubt sticks with the team). The RB corps also is a threat to get a ton of receptions. Allen isn't Bennett, but he is probably better than the guys that preceded Hernandez and before Bennett.
Maybe Cooks will take away some targets from Edelman and Gronk (if he does, I doubt it will be very many targets). I still think there are so many receiving options that Cooks' numbers probably will be similar to his numbers in NOS. For real football purposes, the Pats would be happy to take that. For fantasy purposes, I think people would be a little disappointed if that's all that got as a return.
And if people were curious, NE went 31-6 (.838) in games with TB, JE, and RG. That would be about a 13-2-1 record over a full season.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If the Patriots use him as much as he has been used in New Orleans the last two seasons Cools had 129 targets in 2015 117 in 2016 which is about 120 targets.
Not sure why people would be disappointed by this?
If he only got 100 or less targets (seems possible) then people will likely will.
I think Cooks is too good of a player for that to happen though. If Cooks is giving up significant snaps to Amendola, Hogan or Mitchell then I will be surprised and it was a waste to trade the 1st round pick for him. The argument that other WR were injured as applied to Lafell is fair but Cooks is a lot better receiver than Lafell. It should not be a situation where Cooks needs these guys to get injured to be featured enough in the offense imo.
120 targets seems reasonable to me and Cooks can do well with that level of opportunity.
Not sure why people would be disappointed by this?
If he only got 100 or less targets (seems possible) then people will likely will.
I think Cooks is too good of a player for that to happen though. If Cooks is giving up significant snaps to Amendola, Hogan or Mitchell then I will be surprised and it was a waste to trade the 1st round pick for him. The argument that other WR were injured as applied to Lafell is fair but Cooks is a lot better receiver than Lafell. It should not be a situation where Cooks needs these guys to get injured to be featured enough in the offense imo.
120 targets seems reasonable to me and Cooks can do well with that level of opportunity.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If the usage pattern stayed the same and Edelman and Gronk stayed healthy (neither of those would be good bets in my book), then the projection over a full season for all other WR in NE would be 105 receptions. If we wanted to give Cooks 80 of those, that would leave only 25 leftover for Hogan, Mitchell, and Amendola. IMO, there is no way those three guys only combine for 25 receptions. The likely outcome is guys will get hurt and miss some time and Cooks might be able to claim most of those receptions. And maybe NE does try to conserve Gronk and Edelman to get them through the season. But I have a hard time seeing Cooks with more than 80 receptions . . . and that would be with other guys missing time.
Last edited by a moderator:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
80 receptions would be pretty good and not that different than what he has done the last two seasons, 84 and 78 receptions.
The Saints do spread the ball around a lot too and Cooks was being targeted this much.
The Saints do spread the ball around a lot too and Cooks was being targeted this much.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The Saints had almost 125 more passing attempts than the Patriots did last year. Granted, NE will probably pass more with Brady not out on suspension, but New Orleans passes a ton.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
IMHO when it comes to the Patriots it's not solely about "how many" times they pass the ball or even if they pass as much or more than the Saints.
As you know, their styles are completely different. Brees and company are a "sling it around" offense. The Pats on the other hand will dissect your team systematically by allowing their playmakers do what they do best. Talent wise Cooks adds a talent at the position that they've been missing for some time.
Everyone seem to be make valid points and things to consider I'm just of the belief that Cooks is going to thrive in this offense who gave up much to get him.
Tex
Boston
Footballguy
We will have to agree to disagree about that specific role (your target logic makes sense)...I just don't see Cooks being brought in to take the punishment that those guys have taken...it doesn't mean there won't be some similarities on some stuff but Cooks is not going to make a living getting his butt kicked in by LBs and safeties...I just don't see that being a good use of his skills and the fact the Pats re-upped Edelman (while still having Gronk) says to me that's not how they plan to use him...Biabreakable said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
1. Peyton Manning 539
2. Brett Favre 508
3. Drew Brees 465
4. Tom Brady 456
1 Peyton Manning 71,940.
2 Brett Favre 71,838
3 Drew Brees 66,111
4 Tom Brady 61,582
1 Peyton Manning 5477
2 Drew Brees 5476
3 Tom Brady 5235
1 Peyton Manning 55
2 Tom Brady 50
Let's say Brady sets the single season passing yards and touchdowns records this year and plays one more year after that. He would be less than 5000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns from knocking manning off all 4 of those records.
Two years to walk out as the unquestionable best to ever play.
Two years... so they didn't trade Jimmy g.
They signed Gronk to a performance based extension out of the blue
They signed Edelman to a two year extension
They got mvp caliber numbers from Brady and saw Mitchell and Hogan improve more than anyone expected and they still uncharacteristically traded a first round pick for cooks
They let the NFL season leader in touchdowns walk with nothing but a minimum contract offer and brought in two receiving backs
They would never say this out loud but if you don't think that these guys want this you're not paying attention. Whether they succeed or not is another thing but this is the plan. They aren't going to force it to cooks, but i want a piece of this passing game this year. Owning Brady and cooks this year could be like owning Brady and moss in 2007 - you just win.
2. Brett Favre 508
3. Drew Brees 465
4. Tom Brady 456
1 Peyton Manning 71,940.
2 Brett Favre 71,838
3 Drew Brees 66,111
4 Tom Brady 61,582
1 Peyton Manning 5477
2 Drew Brees 5476
3 Tom Brady 5235
1 Peyton Manning 55
2 Tom Brady 50
Let's say Brady sets the single season passing yards and touchdowns records this year and plays one more year after that. He would be less than 5000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns from knocking manning off all 4 of those records.
Two years to walk out as the unquestionable best to ever play.
Two years... so they didn't trade Jimmy g.
They signed Gronk to a performance based extension out of the blue
They signed Edelman to a two year extension
They got mvp caliber numbers from Brady and saw Mitchell and Hogan improve more than anyone expected and they still uncharacteristically traded a first round pick for cooks
They let the NFL season leader in touchdowns walk with nothing but a minimum contract offer and brought in two receiving backs
They would never say this out loud but if you don't think that these guys want this you're not paying attention. Whether they succeed or not is another thing but this is the plan. They aren't going to force it to cooks, but i want a piece of this passing game this year. Owning Brady and cooks this year could be like owning Brady and moss in 2007 - you just win.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why can he only claim targets from those guys? Why not Edelman and even Gronk? Those target numbers we were using for Edelman and Gronk were when they didn't have a legitimate threat outside. Now that they do, I don't think it's a stretch to say they may end up throwing to those guys less, especially Edelman. I know he's a bit of a safety blanket for Brady but Brady will still sling it to other guys when it's open, which I expect Cooks to be a lot more often than Hogan or LaFell.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can also see them using Gronk a bit less in order to try and keep him healthy. He's not going to get more durable with age.
Dope
Footballguy
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
lol, "working hard to make it..." Bill's ready to cut him.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
For all the talk about the Pats being mad geniuses, they've sure had a lot of busts when it comes to free agents. Busts for our purposes. No need to list all the world beater receivers who came to NE destined for WR1 status who were droppable by week 8. And they also did amazing in training camp and OTAs.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Who were all the guys that they brought in as free agents as supposed WR1's that didn't pan out? They brought in Donte Stallworth who was decent for a year and left. They brought in Brandon Lloyd for a year who was decent and left. Brandon LaFell did well for a year, got hurt, and left. Ocho Cinco was past his prime and didn't work out.
Moss and Welker were added by trade and were exceptional. Do you mean other last legs players that tried to stick with the Pats? Holt? Wayne? Galloway?
What former first round pick did they add in his prime that didn't work out? Cooks is the most they ever invested in bringing in a WR. Not sure any of the other examples are remotely similar.
lmack
Footballguy
Was going to say this. Don't think it's really fair to compare 33 year old Ochocinco and 31 year old Brandon Lloyd free agent signings to trading for a high production high pedigree young WR.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They overpaid for Amendola money wise, but comparing him with Cooks:
Amendola:
- Undrafted
- Career best numbers at the time 689 yards and 3 TD
- Coming off back-to-back years with major injuries
- Turned 28 during the season
Cooks:
- Drafted as a 1st round pick (20th overall)
- Required a 1st round pick to acquire him
- Coming off back-to-back 1100 yard seasons
- Had seasons with 8 and 9 TD
- Coming off back-to-back seasons playing 16 games
- Turning 24 during the season
When NE added Amendola, some felt he would take over Welker's role, but that ultimately went to Edelman instead. At the time, I had mentioned that there was no way for Amendola to sustain the 9 targets a game he was getting with the Rams. He was the only guy they had worth noting in the passing game . . . and was going to a team with Gronk and Hernandez (little did we know . . .) and a propensity to have a lot of capable receiving options. Amendola turned out to be a decent NFL player for the Pats but clearly never panned out in fantasy circles.
I still think it is odd that a lot of folks are down on Cooks this year (see the FBG article on most overrated WR . . . Cooks leads the list). I don't think he does any worse this year than he did in NOS. The Pats didn't bring him him to be just another piece on offense, They brought him in because they want to use him as best as they can. If I had to guess, upside of 1200/10. If healthy, floor of probably 1000/7.
I don't see how he does worse than LaFell (950/7), Lloyd (900/4), or Branch (1000/5) did when they were around (again if he stays healthy).
I'll be passing on Cooks this year. Anarchy makes good points about targets being scarce when Gronk and Edelman are around, but more than anything, Cooks is a limited WR. He's good at what he does, but these are the routes that he does well on: post, nine, flat, screen. These are the routes he's worse than average on: corner, out, dig, comeback, curl, and slant. So I'm pretty confused by the Pats bringing him in. Everything always feels very calculated on their part, but did they really bring him in to run a bunch of flats and screens? For him to be a productive fantasy player, he needs to get utilized deep and I just don't have confidence in Brady going deep well enough and/or often enough for Cooks to justify his ADP... which is WR12, btw. I don't think he'll kill anyone's team by completely busting, but I can't see him being a fantasy WR1 in this offense.
Tau837
Footballguy
Would be interested to see your projected passing attempts and target breakdown. I don't doubt he will do well with his targets, but IMO many people are overestimating how many targets Cooks will get. I mean, if Gronk and/or Edelman were to miss several games and Cooks remains healthy, I'm sure his target share would be higher. But are people really expecting/counting on that with their expectations?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The back story on Cooks coming to NE is in 2015 and 2016, the Pats shared a week of practice with the Saints in training camp before meeting up in preseason games each year. In both the practices and in the games, Cooks made the Pats secondary look really bad. Basically, he abused them, They kept getting burned by Cooks. In the first preseason game, Cooks went 4-117-1. In his only series the next year, he had one catch for 37 yards.
BB commented at the time that Cooks' was the total package: great route running, ability to get separation and get open, and great YAC. They have tried acquiring him ever since. One could almost say BB has been obsessed in getting Cooks.
I don't see any way NE doesn't go out of their way to get Cooks the football. As I see thinks shaping up, Brady's reads will be Edelman / Gronk / Cooks all as primary targets . . . and everyone else gets the rest.
Off the top, assuming 630 passes on the season (which may be a little high, but let's just use that for now):
Edelman 130
Cooks 120
Gronk 100
White 80
Mitchell 50
Hogan 50
Lewis 30
Amendola 30
Others 40
630
I factored in Edelman missing a couple games and Gronk missing a couple games (and sitting out the last week due to clinching). The "others" category includes people like Develin, Burkhead, Clark, Hawkins, Foster, Lengel, etc.
Cooks caught 68% of his targets in NOS. At the same rate, based on 120 targets, that would work out to 82 receptions. At 14 yards a pop, that would work out to 1,148 yards. At 15 yards a catch, that would be 1,230 yards. Predicting TD's is always a fool's errand, but 6-7 seems low and 10-11 seems high. Split the difference on all fronts and call it 82-1190-9.
If he had those numbers last year, he would have ranked as WR7 in 0 PPR leagues and WR8 in 1 PPR leagues.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO you are 30-50 pass attempts too high to start with, which IMO means too high on targets for Cooks and Edelman (and possibly others to lesser extent).
Stealthycat
Footballguy
beautiful thing is ... Edelman and Gronk are injury prone and a bit older players and Brady is going to throw. Cooks upside looks very good IMO
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I guess it depends which version of NE we are going to see. I suspect they will go back to no huddle / hurry up a lot more than they did last year. Whatever they throw out there for personnel packages offensively is going to be real difficult to defend.
Here were the Pats passing attempts over the last 5 years. Last year is a bit of a mess as Brady didn't play the first 4 games. So I used an average of the 15 games that he played and projected another game's worth of attempts. Yes, I get the SB was an insane amount of passing attempts, but the Pats had a lot of games against significantly inferior opponents last year that they could have coasted from the opening kickoff (which they don't appear to have on the schedule this year).
2016 - 612
2015 - 629
2014 - 609
2013 - 628
2012 - 641
That's an average of 624 attempts per yer.
If you are more comfortable with 600 attempts than 630 . . .
Edelman 120
Cooks 115
Gronk 100
White 75
Mitchell 50
Hogan 50
Lewis 30
Amendola 30
Others 30
600
Last year the Pats had 30 targets go to players in the "other" category, so projecting 30 may not be out of line. NE has ALWAYS had guys miss time. Always. That could also impact Cooks if he is the one that gets dinged. Edelman has missed a year's worth of games. Gronk has missed a season and a half worth of games. Mitchell and Hogan each missed a game or two last year. Amendola is Amendola. Lewis has missed as many games as he's played in if not more. White struggled to get on the field as a rookie and only suited up for 3 games that year.
My point being, Cooks should be closer to the top of the "guys Brady will target" and "guys that should stay on the field a lot" category. Add in the injury factor to the rest of the crew, and I am not concerned about Cooks seeing the football. I would guess Cooks gets targeted 6-7 times a game when guys are healthy and 8-9 times a game if Edelman or Gronk is out (or if a couple of the other options are out). I'm still guessing the likely range for Cooks is 110-120 targets on the season. Higher would mean someone else got hurt for a long stretch. Lower would mean Cooks missed time or everyone was healthy. If it's the latter, than the rest of the league is going to get steamrolled.
Last edited by a moderator:
