definitely going to shoot up but man, Hogan is still such a solid pick.A lot if hes out for the season. Main question on Cooks was the target share. Well.....150 targets just became available.
Hogan a flex every week. Mitchell draftable now as depth. White and Lewis look a little more enticing.Patriots reporting Edelman done with an ACL. Cooks is a WR1 now.
Mitchell hasn't practiced in team activities in training camp yet and has his own knee issues. No timetable for his return.Hogan a flex every week. Mitchell draftable now as depth. White and Lewis look a little more enticing.
Anarchy, you're obviously dialed in on the Patriots and I was curious how you think the target distribution will work out. Do you think they will design more plays to get Cooks the ball instead of him just being a deep vertical threat?Mitchell hasn't practiced in team activities in training camp yet and has his own knee issues. No timetable for his return.
I am sure they had some shorter routes available to him even before the Edelman injury, Part of the plan is to have Cooks have some shorter routes run over and over again, and then when the defense adjusts or gets complacent, have him run a double move and go deep.Anarchy, you're obviously dialed in on the Patriots and I was curious how you think the target distribution will work out. Do you think they will design more plays to get Cooks the ball instead of him just being a deep vertical threat?
Lewis probably not the option. There was talk earlier this off season of limiting him to 15-20 snaps a came to keep him healthy and fresh.Gronk,Cooks, and the receiving backs get bumped up. I like Lewis and Burkhead to play the most snaps in the crowded backfield. Cooks was always the number 1 receiver. He is simply way better than Edelman. Let's see if the rookie Carr makes the team.
My guess is he gets drafted right around Michael Thomas now.Well, I thought I might have Cooks somewhere as my WR2. In fact I try to avoid certain situations, but it looked an awful lot like I was going to have him as my WR2 in some leagues.
Not any more. He will simply be too expensive. Any interest I had up until tonight, is now gone. He just made my list of "too expensive to own".
TZM
Updating my Patriots target projections to remove Edelman:Here is the target distribution that the Patriots have averaged over the past 5 seasons (starting with Gronk's second year):Here is a first pass at NE's target breakdown:
116 WR Edelman (In 13.5 games, on pace for 138 tar, 95/1035/6.4)
110 RBs (In 16 games, on pace for 110 tar, 75/687/3.1)
109 TE Gronkowski (In 14 games, on pace for 125 tar, 81/1194/13.8)
107 WR Cooks (In 14.5 games, on pace for 118 tar, 77/1062/7.1)
44 TE Allen (In 14 games, on pace for 50 tar, 34/365/3.4)
41 WR Mitchell (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
41 WR Hogan (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
16 WR Amendola (In 13 games, on pace for 20 tar, 14/144/0.6)
22 Other WR/TE/other (In 16 games, on pace for 22 tar, 13/145/0.9)
This adds up to 398/606 for 4842 yards and 35 TDs.
159 target pace for Edelman/Welker (range: 151-174. My projection for Edelman: 138)
+128 target pace for Gronk* (range: 106-151. My projection: 125)
+104 target pace for WR2 (range: 62-131. My projection for Cooks: 118)
+116 targets for RBs (range: 84-143. My projection: 110)
+165 targets for everyone else (range: 109-202. My projection: 164)
-67 missing targets from WR1/Gronk/WR2 due to missed games (range: 28-113. My projection: 49)
=605 targets total (range: 546-634. My projection: 606)
(*This is treating Gronk's 2016 season pace as 33 targets in 5 games, ignoring the 3 games where he didn't do much)
Looking this over, I think I'm going to add another 5 or so targets for Cooks and take them away from "everyone else".
My guess is he gets drafted right around Michael Thomas now.
Can you define this? Are you saying you now expect him to finish between WR5 and WR8?Cooks becomes a mid-level WR1
Not sure I like Joyner too much if he thought Edelman was only going to get 53-73 targets this season.TripItUp said:KC Joyner all over twitter regarding Edelmans target redistribution
20-30 to Gronk
20-30 to Cooks
13ish screen passes to rbs
not a huge joyner fan but these look reasonable
whats over drafted in your opinion? Start of the second? Before Thomas, Bryant?Cooks going to be overdrafted now.
Cooks targets will get a little bump, but Edelman's targets are going to be distributed evenly across many: Hogan, Amendola, Gronk, RBs.
Burkhead even has experience playing in the slot. Could see D. Lewis there as well.
If anything, I now want more shares of the NE backfield. Probably bump Hogan up a bunch.
Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...I think the RBs and TEs will benefit from this more than Cooks. I don't see Cooks catching a lot of balls a slot guy would normally catch. Cooks will still be really good this year.
I think Hogan was going to see targets anyway (even though he was off everyone's radar until last night).
Define overdrafted? Because he is going 12ish now. I would easily take a flyer on him in the 10thish.Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...
Re: Hogan, I probably agree. When I said he was going to get targets anyway, what I meant was that he should have a similar year to last. He won't be an every week guy, but he'll be a good bye week fill-in, with the hopes that that is one of the weeks he catches a bomb for a touchdown. I think he could easily be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD guy, but they have too many mouths to feed in NE.Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...
Yeah giving it a little more thought I was already high on Cooks with Edelman healthy.....I think its a small bump for Cooks and the big beneficiary maybe Burkhead and Hogan.........I think the RBs and TEs will benefit from this more than Cooks. I don't see Cooks catching a lot of balls a slot guy would normally catch. Cooks will still be really good this year.
I think Hogan was going to see targets anyway (even though he was off everyone's radar until last night).
yes, the edelman injury probably moves him from less than last year to more than last year, but now some will have the 1000/10 expectation.Re: Hogan, I probably agree. When I said he was going to get targets anyway, what I meant was that he should have a similar year to last. He won't be an every week guy, but he'll be a good bye week fill-in, with the hopes that that is one of the weeks he catches a bomb for a touchdown. I think he could easily be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD guy, but they have too many mouths to feed in NE.
They have plenty of other weapons to draw coverage away from Cooks. He's going to get some of these Edelman targets now giving him more chances of taking it to the house. There will be games where the defense has no answer for him and Brady will exploit them.I'm not sure this helps Cooks much. I was looking forward to seeing this offense intact. Edelman was part of the system that was going to open the field for Cooks.
Yeah I don't agree with this at allI'm not sure this helps Cooks much. I was looking forward to seeing this offense intact. Edelman was part of the system that was going to open the field for Cooks.
He's not exactly bad at scoring TD's but yeah it's def Gronk and the running game down there.....but they do some jet sweeps with him running towards Gronks side because Gronk is such a dominant blocker....I could see 2-3 rushing TD's for Cooks this year to go along with all the catches and receiving yards.....I think it is odd that so many people don't seem to think that Cooks is capable of playing the slot or working the middle of the field. Perhaps "capable" is not the right word but let's not get into semantics on this one. It seems that the consensus is that Cooks was brought in to bring deep speed and not work the middle, which may be the case, but make no mistake Cooks can play from the slot, on the outside and even out of the backfield (which is how N.O. deployed him often as a rookie). Cooks has a complete game and NE was going to maximize it before Edelman got hurt and this will only increase his usage. The only place where Cooks was, and still is going to suffer is near the goal line that territory belongs to Gronk and the running game but that was the case before the injury too.
I've seen people advocating for taking him near where Edelman was going.Define overdrafted? Because he is going 12ish now. I would easily take a flyer on him in the 10thish.
Yeswhats over drafted in your opinion? Start of the second? Before Thomas, Bryant?
He went in the 8th in my big money league draft last night? I was likeI've seen people advocating for taking him near where Edelman was going.
Went 2.12 in two PPR leagues this weekPeople who are drafting this weekend - where are you thinking of taking Cooks??
No way was that a dud. He went 3 for 88 and got wide open deep at least three times, catching one and drawing two PIs on others that were thirty-five plus. The problem is that you're getting no points for PIs. I own no shares of Cooks, and I'm pissed. He's going to be a deep threat for Brady all year and spread the field. Thank God for opponents that Edelman and Amendola are hurt or they'd operate underneath all year with impunity.WOW.
Complete silence on his performance last night. 3 receptions on 7 targets isn't exactly lighting it up.
Can anyone expand on the game and how he looked? I did not see the game, but judging from the boxscore, barring the one 54 yard catch, last night was a complete dud.
I would like to see them get him some underneath throws with the other guys out. I don't know if they feel they need to have him going deep all the time to spread the field.No way was that a dud. He went 3 for 88 and got wide open deep at least three times, catching one and drawing two PIs on others that were thirty-five plus. The problem is that you're getting no points for PIs. I own no shares of Cooks, and I'm pissed. He's going to be a deep threat for Brady all year and spread the field. Thank God for opponents that Edelman and Amendola are hurt or they'd operate underneath all year with impunity.
An impressive performance by Cooks, all said and done, especially if you're playing standard.
He looked completely uncoverable out there. Drew like 5 total flags for pi and holding.WOW.
Complete silence on his performance last night. 3 receptions on 7 targets isn't exactly lighting it up.
Can anyone expand on the game and how he looked? I did not see the game, but judging from the boxscore, barring the one 54 yard catch, last night was a complete dud.
I should get a chance in the next day or two to track down the game and have a look, but this doesn't exactly sound promising.
I think one good outlook is Malcolm Mitchell is now on IR, and Amendola in the concussion protocol, the targets should be coming hot and heavy in the coming weeks.
I know Cooks was going to be up and down a bit, but take away that one 50+ yard catch, and it was awful.
I hope to see the game in the next 24-48 hours, but was Tom Brady off? A buddy mentioned he noticed a few bad passes, one early on to Dwayne Allen. Just judging from the bits and pieces I have read, it might have just been a bad night for the Pats.
I'm surprised this thread isn't active after the game, but understandably all the bumps are in the Kareem Hunt and Gillislee threads.
Any input from the sharks who watched the game?
TZM