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WR Brandin Cooks, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

He's not exactly bad at scoring TD's. I don't get the hate. I think he blows up this year. BB is going to put him in a position to succeed......

 
Mitchell hasn't practiced in team activities in training camp yet and has his own knee issues. No timetable for his return.
Anarchy, you're obviously dialed in on the Patriots and I was curious how you think the target distribution will work out. Do you think they will design more plays to get Cooks the ball instead of him just being a deep vertical threat?

 
Anarchy, you're obviously dialed in on the Patriots and I was curious how you think the target distribution will work out. Do you think they will design more plays to get Cooks the ball instead of him just being a deep vertical threat?
I am sure they had some shorter routes available to him even before the Edelman injury, Part of the plan is to have Cooks have some shorter routes run over and over again, and then when the defense adjusts or gets complacent, have him run a double move and go deep. 

I will have to think about how they will adjust. At first blush, I would guess Hogan becomes a fantasy WR2/3, Cooks becomes a mid-level WR1, Amendola might actually become fantasy relevant as a flex (if they wrap him in bubble wrap), and the RB's get some more receptions. I haven't quite got a handle on the RB targets yet. NE has been practicing lining up RBs in the slot and in the backfield, so maybe they add in some more of that.

I think this also hurts Brady's value a little, as it may take some time for him to get used to not having his binky to throw to.

 
Gronk,Cooks, and the receiving backs get bumped up. I like Lewis and Burkhead to play the most snaps in the crowded backfield. Cooks was always the number 1 receiver. He is simply way better than Edelman. Let's see if the rookie Carr makes the team. 

 
Gronk,Cooks, and the receiving backs get bumped up. I like Lewis and Burkhead to play the most snaps in the crowded backfield. Cooks was always the number 1 receiver. He is simply way better than Edelman. Let's see if the rookie Carr makes the team. 
Lewis probably not the option. There was talk earlier this off season of limiting him to 15-20 snaps a came to keep him healthy and fresh.

Foster also now a possible roster option, as he has been practicing with RBs and WRs. A lot will depend when they think Mitchell can play.

 
 Well, I thought I might have Cooks somewhere as my WR2. In fact I try to avoid certain situations, but it looked an awful lot like I was going to have him as my WR2 in some leagues.

 Not any more. He will simply be too expensive.  Any interest I had up until tonight, is now gone. He just made my list of "too expensive to own".

 TZM

 
 Well, I thought I might have Cooks somewhere as my WR2. In fact I try to avoid certain situations, but it looked an awful lot like I was going to have him as my WR2 in some leagues.

 Not any more. He will simply be too expensive.  Any interest I had up until tonight, is now gone. He just made my list of "too expensive to own".

 TZM
My guess is he gets drafted right around Michael Thomas now.

 
Here is a first pass at NE's target breakdown:

116    WR Edelman    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 138 tar, 95/1035/6.4)
110    RBs    (In 16 games, on pace for 110 tar, 75/687/3.1)
109    TE Gronkowski    (In 14 games, on pace for 125 tar, 81/1194/13.8)
107    WR Cooks    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 118 tar, 77/1062/7.1)
44    TE Allen    (In 14 games, on pace for 50 tar, 34/365/3.4)
41    WR Mitchell    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
41    WR Hogan    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
16    WR Amendola    (In 13 games, on pace for 20 tar, 14/144/0.6)
22    Other WR/TE/other    (In 16 games, on pace for 22 tar, 13/145/0.9)

This adds up to 398/606 for 4842 yards and 35 TDs.
Here is the target distribution that the Patriots have averaged over the past 5 seasons (starting with Gronk's second year):

159 target pace for Edelman/Welker (range: 151-174. My projection for Edelman: 138)
+128 target pace for Gronk* (range: 106-151. My projection: 125)
+104 target pace for WR2 (range: 62-131. My projection for Cooks: 118)
+116 targets for RBs (range: 84-143. My projection: 110)
+165 targets for everyone else (range: 109-202. My projection: 164)
-67 missing targets from WR1/Gronk/WR2 due to missed games (range: 28-113. My projection: 49)
=605 targets total (range: 546-634. My projection: 606)

(*This is treating Gronk's 2016 season pace as 33 targets in 5 games, ignoring the 3 games where he didn't do much)

Looking this over, I think I'm going to add another 5 or so targets for Cooks and take them away from "everyone else".
Updating my Patriots target projections to remove Edelman:

131    WR Cooks    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 145 tar, 95/1276/8.7)
115    RBs    (In 16 games, on pace for 115 tar, 78/718/3.2)
108    TE Gronkowski    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 128 tar, 82/1222/13.8)
84    WR Hogan    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 93 tar, 56/744/4.4)
51    WR Amendola    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 60 tar, 41/432/1.8)
44    TE Allen    (In 14 games, on pace for 50 tar, 34/365/3.4)
41    WR Mitchell    (In 13 games, on pace for 50 tar, 30/415/2.3)
30    Other WR/TE/other    (In 16 games, on pace for 30 tar, 18/198/1.2)

This adds up to 392/604 for 4799 yards and 34 TDs.

 
My guess is he gets drafted right around Michael Thomas now.


 Yes, and on that note, I'll take Michael Thomas if I had to choose between the two.

I think they will both be fine, but I am betting on Cooks being more boom and bust.  In those scenarios, give me the more consistent guy.

In ANY CLOSE SCENARIO , give me the more consistent guy.  Thats exactly what I try and draft in the first few rounds of my draft, consistency.

  TZM

 
As a dynasty owner of Cooks in multiple leagues, a major stumbling block just got removed. Was hoping to get him in redraft too as a WR2 but his adp likely to really jump now. Cooks may flirt with top overall WR status this year if he stays healthy and has truly grasped the Pats playbook.

No worries about inconsistency anymore imo, Hogan and the RB's will definitely benefit but Cooks will too; evening out and providing a good floor instead of those possible multiple 1~3 catch games we were worried about with Edelman healthy. Edelman could have been an issue in 2018 as well with his guaranteed salary after the contract extension, but now he's gonna be 32 and coming off an ACL tear.

 
KC Joyner all over twitter regarding Edelmans target redistribution 

20-30 to Gronk

20-30 to Cooks

13ish screen passes to rbs 

not a huge joyner fan but these look reasonable 

 
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TripItUp said:
KC Joyner all over twitter regarding Edelmans target redistribution 

20-30 to Gronk

20-30 to Cooks

13ish screen passes to rbs 

not a huge joyner fan but these look reasonable 
Not sure I like Joyner too much if he thought Edelman was only going to get 53-73 targets this season.

 
Cooks going to be overdrafted now.

Cooks targets will get a little bump, but Edelman's targets are going to be distributed evenly across many: Hogan, Amendola, Gronk, RBs.

Burkhead even has experience playing in the slot. Could see D. Lewis there as well.

If anything, I now want more shares of the NE backfield. Probably bump Hogan up a bunch.

 
I think the RBs and TEs will benefit from this more than Cooks.  I don't see Cooks catching a lot of balls a slot guy would normally catch. Cooks will still be really good this year. 

I think Hogan was going to see targets anyway (even though he was off everyone's radar until last night). 

 
Cooks going to be overdrafted now.

Cooks targets will get a little bump, but Edelman's targets are going to be distributed evenly across many: Hogan, Amendola, Gronk, RBs.

Burkhead even has experience playing in the slot. Could see D. Lewis there as well.

If anything, I now want more shares of the NE backfield. Probably bump Hogan up a bunch.
whats over drafted in your opinion?  Start of the second?  Before Thomas, Bryant?

 
I think the RBs and TEs will benefit from this more than Cooks.  I don't see Cooks catching a lot of balls a slot guy would normally catch. Cooks will still be really good this year. 

I think Hogan was going to see targets anyway (even though he was off everyone's radar until last night). 
Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...

 
Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...
Define overdrafted?  Because he is going 12ish now.  I would easily take a flyer on him in the 10thish.

 
Hogan will be massively overdrafted now, as he will clearly get a good bump in the beginning of the season, but (a) Amendola and the other mouths will get a big share, and (b) the targets will re-distribute more to Cooks way as the season progresses...
Re: Hogan, I probably agree.  When I said he was going to get targets anyway, what I meant was that he should have a similar year to last.  He won't be an every week guy, but he'll be a good bye week fill-in, with the hopes that that is one of the weeks he catches a bomb for a touchdown.  I think he could easily be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD guy, but they have too many mouths to feed in NE. 

 
I think the RBs and TEs will benefit from this more than Cooks.  I don't see Cooks catching a lot of balls a slot guy would normally catch. Cooks will still be really good this year. 

I think Hogan was going to see targets anyway (even though he was off everyone's radar until last night). 
Yeah giving it a little more thought I was already high on Cooks with Edelman healthy.....I think its a small bump for Cooks and the big beneficiary maybe Burkhead and Hogan.........

Cooks still gets a bump though and he should see more targets than he ever has.....130+....... 

 
Re: Hogan, I probably agree.  When I said he was going to get targets anyway, what I meant was that he should have a similar year to last.  He won't be an every week guy, but he'll be a good bye week fill-in, with the hopes that that is one of the weeks he catches a bomb for a touchdown.  I think he could easily be a 1,000-yard, 10-TD guy, but they have too many mouths to feed in NE. 
yes, the edelman injury probably moves him from less than last year to more than last year, but now some will have the 1000/10 expectation.

 
Well, I have no problem with reaching for a guy in rounds 8-12 by taking him a few rounds too early, if I think he will be good, but Hogan is not the guy I would take that minor risk on this year. 

 
I think it is odd that so many people don't seem to think that Cooks is capable of playing the slot or working the middle of the field.  Perhaps "capable" is not the right word but let's not get into semantics on this one.  It seems that the consensus is that Cooks was brought in to bring deep speed and not work the middle, which may be the case, but make no mistake Cooks can play from the slot, on the outside and even out of the backfield (which is how N.O. deployed him often as a rookie).  Cooks has a complete game and NE was going to maximize it before Edelman got hurt and this will only increase his usage.  The only place where Cooks was, and still is going to suffer is near the goal line that territory belongs to Gronk and the running game but that was the case before the injury too.

 
 I'm not sure this helps Cooks much. I was looking forward to seeing this offense intact. Edelman was part of the system that was going to open the field for Cooks. 

 
 I'm not sure this helps Cooks much. I was looking forward to seeing this offense intact. Edelman was part of the system that was going to open the field for Cooks. 
They have plenty of other weapons to draw coverage away from Cooks. He's going to get some of these Edelman targets now giving him more chances of taking it to the house. There will be games where the defense has no answer for him and Brady will exploit them.

 
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I think it is odd that so many people don't seem to think that Cooks is capable of playing the slot or working the middle of the field.  Perhaps "capable" is not the right word but let's not get into semantics on this one.  It seems that the consensus is that Cooks was brought in to bring deep speed and not work the middle, which may be the case, but make no mistake Cooks can play from the slot, on the outside and even out of the backfield (which is how N.O. deployed him often as a rookie).  Cooks has a complete game and NE was going to maximize it before Edelman got hurt and this will only increase his usage.  The only place where Cooks was, and still is going to suffer is near the goal line that territory belongs to Gronk and the running game but that was the case before the injury too.
He's not exactly bad at scoring TD's but yeah it's def Gronk and the running game down there.....but they do some jet sweeps with him running towards Gronks side because Gronk is such a dominant blocker....I could see 2-3 rushing TD's for Cooks this year to go along with all the catches and receiving yards.....

 
 WOW.

Complete silence on his performance last night. 3 receptions on 7 targets isn't exactly lighting it up.

Can anyone expand on the game and how he looked? I did not see the game, but judging from the boxscore, barring the one 54 yard catch, last night was a complete dud.

 I should get a chance in the next day or two to track down the game and have a look, but this doesn't exactly sound promising.

I think one good outlook is Malcolm Mitchell is now on IR, and  Amendola in the concussion protocol, the targets should be coming hot and heavy in the coming weeks.

I know Cooks was going to be up and down a bit, but take away that one 50+ yard catch, and it was awful.

I hope to see the game in the next 24-48 hours, but was Tom Brady off?  A buddy mentioned he noticed a few bad passes, one early on to Dwayne Allen. Just judging from the bits and pieces I have read, it might have just been a bad night for the Pats.

 I'm surprised this thread isn't active after the game, but understandably all the bumps are in the Kareem Hunt and Gillislee threads.

 Any input from the sharks who watched the game?

TZM

 
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He drew three flags. Would have caught a TD if not for one of them. There were two other deep passes where they were close to connecting but the passes were a little underthrown and the defender was able to make a good play to get a hand in. Could have been a much bigger game. It seemed like he was Brady's No. 1 target. It was annoying when they got inside the 10 that they would take him out for their goal-line package with just the RBs and TEs. But I wouldn't be concerned about Cooks over this game.

 
 WOW.

Complete silence on his performance last night. 3 receptions on 7 targets isn't exactly lighting it up.

Can anyone expand on the game and how he looked? I did not see the game, but judging from the boxscore, barring the one 54 yard catch, last night was a complete dud.
No way was that a dud. He went 3 for 88 and got wide open deep at least three times, catching one and drawing two PIs on others that were thirty-five plus. The problem is that you're getting no points for PIs. I own no shares of Cooks, and I'm pissed. He's going to be a deep threat for Brady all year and spread the field. Thank God for opponents that Edelman and Amendola are hurt or they'd operate underneath all year with impunity.  

An impressive performance by Cooks, all said and done, especially if you're playing standard.  

 
No way was that a dud. He went 3 for 88 and got wide open deep at least three times, catching one and drawing two PIs on others that were thirty-five plus. The problem is that you're getting no points for PIs. I own no shares of Cooks, and I'm pissed. He's going to be a deep threat for Brady all year and spread the field. Thank God for opponents that Edelman and Amendola are hurt or they'd operate underneath all year with impunity.  

An impressive performance by Cooks, all said and done, especially if you're playing standard.  
I would like to see them get him some underneath throws with the other guys out. I don't know if they feel they need to have him going deep all the time to spread the field.

 
 WOW.

Complete silence on his performance last night. 3 receptions on 7 targets isn't exactly lighting it up.

Can anyone expand on the game and how he looked? I did not see the game, but judging from the boxscore, barring the one 54 yard catch, last night was a complete dud.

 I should get a chance in the next day or two to track down the game and have a look, but this doesn't exactly sound promising.

I think one good outlook is Malcolm Mitchell is now on IR, and  Amendola in the concussion protocol, the targets should be coming hot and heavy in the coming weeks.

I know Cooks was going to be up and down a bit, but take away that one 50+ yard catch, and it was awful.

I hope to see the game in the next 24-48 hours, but was Tom Brady off?  A buddy mentioned he noticed a few bad passes, one early on to Dwayne Allen. Just judging from the bits and pieces I have read, it might have just been a bad night for the Pats.

 I'm surprised this thread isn't active after the game, but understandably all the bumps are in the Kareem Hunt and Gillislee threads.

 Any input from the sharks who watched the game?

TZM
He looked completely uncoverable out there. Drew like 5 total flags for pi and holding. 

 

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