WR Brandin Cooks, Free Agent (5 Viewers)

[jurb26]

The effectiveness of how NO runs the ball is not what I'm talking about. It's how often they decide to run the ball. NO ranked 2nd in pass attempts last year, 19th in rushing.

They spent the off season letting go of their top 2 receiving options, resigning their top RB, signing Spiller and drafting heavy on the defensive side of the ball. They spent the 13 pick in a T, then 31 and 44 on LBs.

You assume the vacated targets of Graham and Stills just get distributed back and the most logical influx goes to Cooks. I don't think it's that simple. Cooks is certainly in line for a larger role but that doesn't have to mean NO remains pass happy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The effectiveness of how NO runs the ball is not what I'm talking about. It's how often they decide to run the ball. NO ranked 2nd in pass attempts last year, 19th in rushing.

They spent the off season letting go of their top 2 receiving options, resigning their top RB, signing Spiller and drafting heavy on the defensive side of the ball. They spent the 13 pick in a T, then 31 and 44 on LBs.

You assume the vacated targets of Graham and Stills just get distributed back and the most logical influx goes to Cooks. I don't think it's that simple. Cooks is certainly in line for a larger role but that doesn't have to mean NO remains pass happy.

I don't think Sean Payton would decide to dramatically increase the rushing attempts of his offense at the expense of his passing attack without looking into how effective the rushing attack was in comparison to the passing game. I'm sure he would go with what works best and if you look at the top rushing teams they have a durable big power RB in addition to a solid offensive lines along with a top defense.

I think anyone would take into consideration how effective the rushing attack was in comparison to the passing attack before looking at the Saints and the offensive history Sean Payton has adopted over his long career.

New Orleans let go of their top two targeted receiving threats and they must have some strategy. We know that last year they moved-up to draft a WR in the first round and this year made no attempts to add any major receiving threats. We know that Cooks is back healthy and all reports are positive and he is no longer a rookie and Payton has tried at least two roles for him and is sure to have plotted a strategy of how to use Cooks.

I do not assume the targets lost with Graham and Stills or the addition of CJ Spiller or drafted an OT in the first round indicate the offense will shift to emphasizing the backfield where you seem to see a heavy increase in production to the RBs. I don't assume that because the Saints rushing attack was targeted highly and was not as effective as their receivers with the ball.

I do like CJ Spiller, he is a great threat when healthy but he's only played all sixteen games in his second and third of his five seasons in the league. In those five years Spiller has been placed on the Injury list 19 times for various injuries to his, hamstring, shoulder, knee, quad, and ankle.

http://www.kffl.com/player/22484/nfl/injury_history/c.j.-spiller

CJ Spiller has missed 10 games in five years and parts of at least five other games due to injuries. Mark Ingram has played four years and missed 11 games. Kiry Robinson has only played two years and missed 10 games. I don't see a big durable back to build a power running game around. I don't see a huge increase in the 193 targets that the Saint RBs/FBs got last year.

I don't think its simple but I don't think its that complicated either. I think WR Brandin Cooks is poised for a huge increase in targets and production.

 

[jurb26]

I'm not sure why you keep talking about RB targets? I'm talking about rushing attempts and the distribution of plays. I refer to NO as pass happy because they have continually shown to pass the ball in the upper echelon of teams year after year for several years now. A team can be pass happy and run the ball well. NO has done that.

Maybe Peyton is who he is and nothing changes. I could be wrong. Like I said though, these off season moves appear to indicate a bit of a change in philosophy. Just a few months ago, prior to the draft, many slatted NO as a team likely to draft a WR early and listed it as a need. Not only did they not draft one early, they didn't draft one at all. They did nothing to address the position as a matter of fact. Maybe that's just confidence in the incumbent group. They did however address oline, RB and nearly every defensive position; LB and CB were all high value picks.

I definitely think the pass pie is smaller this year in NO. That in and of itself doesn't mean Cooks can't meet or exceed expectations. Much like last year though, I think the expectations are being set too high. Much like last year I think ghe RBs are being undervalued.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

They spent the off season letting go of their top 2 receiving options,

Stills wasn't one of their top two receiving options?

Stills finished third in targets and would have been fourth if Cooks didn't get hurt.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

From last night's FBG Audible podcast.

The guys were discussing the Saints offense. They began with Spiller but shifted to WR Toon when Waldman started to give his projections for the New Orleans passing game.

Go to the 10:30 mark where Matt Waldman gives a quick rundown of his projections for the Saints offense this year. He has New Orleans second year WR Brandin Cooks showing an increase in production over last year and where he is the big winner since he is the only one showing a huge increase in production over last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdKRQR7nW-o

7.16.15 Thursday Night Live

-------------------------------------

.... I have Brees at 4,370 yards

.... Spiller 450

.... Colston 800

.... Cooks 1,100

.... Toon 300

.... TEs Josh Hill and Ben Watson split 950 yards 10 TDs with the split going 60-40 in favor of Hill.

.... And after that then its just split up with guys in the 100 to 200 yard range with 1 or 2 TDs.

 

[jurb26]

From last night's FBG Audible podcast.

The guys were discussing the Saints offense. They began with Spiller but shifted to WR Toon when Waldman started to give his projections for the New Orleans passing game.

Go to the 10:30 mark where Matt Waldman gives a quick rundown of his projections for the Saints offense this year. He has New Orleans second year WR Brandin Cooks showing an increase in production over last year and where he is the big winner since he is the only one showing a huge increase in production over last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdKRQR7nW-o

7.16.15 Thursday Night Live

-------------------------------------

.... I have Brees at 4,370 yards

.... Spiller 450

.... Colston 800

.... Cooks 1,100

.... Toon 300

.... TEs Josh Hill and Ben Watson split 950 yards 10 TDs with the split going 60-40 in favor of Hill.

.... And after that then its just split up with guys in the 100 to 200 yard range with 1 or 2 TDs.

That would be Brees lowest yardage total in a Saint's uniform. It would be easily the lowest total in his last 5 years. That was kind of my point earlier.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

That would be Brees lowest yardage total in a Saint's uniform. It would be easily the lowest total in his last 5 years. That was kind of my point earlier.

Waldman's projections seem conservative but reasonable.

The lower expectations for Brees were figured in with the higher expectations for WR Brandin Cooks. Cooks is the only player outside of TEs Josh Hill and Ben Watson who show an increase in expected production.

The increase for Cooks is much higher than any other Saint player from Waldman's projections and that was the main point people were trying to get across. That WR Brandin Cooks would be the primary beneficiary of the lost targets of TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills.

 

[jurb26]

That would be Brees lowest yardage total in a Saint's uniform. It would be easily the lowest total in his last 5 years. That was kind of my point earlier.

Waldman's projections seem conservative but reasonable. The lower expectations for Brees were figured in with the higher expectations for WR Brandin Cooks. Cooks is the only player outside of TEs Josh Hill and Ben Watson who show an increase in expected production.

The increase for Cooks is much higher than any other Saint player from Waldman's projections and that was the main point people were trying to get across. That WR Brandin Cooks would be the primary beneficiary of the lost targets of TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills.

I find the yardage projection fair and it's around where I'd probably put it. I haven't done my NO team projections yet, personally. I fully expect a healthy Cooks to lead the team in targets and yards. Maybe not TDs, though. Still, I'm not sure I can project over 25% of the passing yards going to him. That seems too lopsided. Brees spreads the ball around well. At that yardage total for Brees, I'd probably have Cooks closer to 1,000 than 1,100.

 

[Milkman]

I can deal with 1000 yards receiving for Cooks. He should have 100-150 yards rushing too. 90 catches, 1200 total yards and 7-8 TD puts him as a solid WR2 maybe even WR1 territory.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I can deal with 1000 yards receiving for Cooks. He should have 100-150 yards rushing too. 90 catches, 1200 total yards and 7-8 TD puts him as a solid WR2 maybe even WR1 territory.

This is right in the ballpark of what I think Cooks will produce this year.

For the record Matt Waldman projected 'just under' 1,100 yards for Cooks which is reasonable but I think he'll go higher on yardage and lower on TDs than some others have projected. I think he goes high on receiving yards because I don't see anyone on the roster to threaten his targets and I think Payton will use him as his go-to guy between the 20s where he'll churn out big chunks of yards. I can see where Brandin and Drew click on three deep balls during the year that go for scores so he'd only have to execute three scores inside the 20. I think 3 scores deep bombs and 3 scores inside the 20 is reasonable.

I don't see ridiculous numbers but I think he will go over 1,200 receiving yards.

Cooks was on pace for 6 TDs last year receiving but I don't see an increase there however I give him the 1 rush TD he had last year so I see 7 total scores with over 1,300 total yards.

My projections for New Orleans Saints WR Brandin Cooks:

- 1,245 receiving yards

- 6 receiving touchdowns

- 65 rushing yards

- 1 rushing touchdown

Combined totals: 1,310 yards, 7 TDs

 

[Faust]

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2015: Can Brandin Cooks meet the hype?

 

[Milkman]

I'm not really disagreeing with you but NO lost their #1 red zone threat. That would suggest more looks inside the 20's for cooks not less.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Milkman:

I'm not really disagreeing with you but NO lost their #1 red zone threat. That would suggest more looks inside the 20's for cooks not less.

I think they will run more inside the redzone and that 6'4 Colston along with running more 2-tight sets with Benjamin/Hill, i.e., 'larger' targets will get most of the RZ targets over Cooks.

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2015: Can Brandin Cooks meet the hype?

The projections from that article for WR Brandin Cooks:

"CWi Projection: 90 receptions, 1,215 yards, 10 carries, 78 yards, 8 touchdowns"

Nearly identical total combined yardage and TD numbers to what I have: "Combined totals: 1,310 yards, 7 TDs"

 

[Sweetness_34]

Cooks is never going to be a red zone guy....just like Harvin when he was the only weapon in Minny, he may get a lot of targets and gadget plays and even runs but his TDs will never be high given he will not be a red zone guy, and that is why he will never be in that top tier. If the situation changes next year where they get a WR high in the draft, then his numbers will take a hit. Add to that the fact that his body is (like Harvin), very prone to injuries at this level, as evidenced last year.

 

[lardonastick]

Cooks is never going to be a red zone guy....just like Harvin when he was the only weapon in Minny, he may get a lot of targets and gadget plays and even runs but his TDs will never be high given he will not be a red zone guy, and that is why he will never be in that top tier. If the situation changes next year where they get a WR high in the draft, then his numbers will take a hit. Add to that the fact that his body is (like Harvin), very prone to injuries at this level, as evidenced last year.

He had a broken thumb.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah Cooks has been incredibly durable his entire football career.

I agree he won't be a huge red zone target but he may get a larger % of touches than last year. Ingram really isn't that good if a GL RB.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Cooks is never going to be a red zone guy....just like Harvin when he was the only weapon in Minny, he may get a lot of targets and gadget plays and even runs but his TDs will never be high given he will not be a red zone guy, and that is why he will never be in that top tier. If the situation changes next year where they get a WR high in the draft, then his numbers will take a hit. Add to that the fact that his body is (like Harvin), very prone to injuries at this level, as evidenced last year.

I agree but he was on pace for a combined 6 TDs last year.

From the article Faust just linked: "Cooks only played 10 games, but finished with 53 catches on 70 targets (76 percent) for 550 yards and three touchdowns. He added seven rushes for 73 yards and another score. Over a full season, Cooks likely would have finished in the neighborhood of an 85-882-5 line, perhaps with enough rushing yardage to get him 1,000 total yards."

And as noted his injury was a busted thumb nothing that would be nagging or suggest he's injury prone.

Also Percy never had much in terms of QBs and certainly he never had a QB on par with Drew Brees who is a legit HOF candidate when he hangs up his cleats. Also I have more faith in Sean Payton than any other offensive coaches Percy had. The Brees/Payton combo works in Cooks favor IMHO. I think that is the key advantage an undersized WR like Cooks has over other smaller/undersized first round WRs like Percy Harvin or Tavon Austin who didn't have similar QB play/production or a HC like Sean Payton.

In Pecy's best scoring years, his first three in the league, he had, 6 (8 if including KR TDs), 6 (7 if including KR TD), and 8 (9 if including KR TD), combined scores on, 60, 71, and 87 receptions. He had much worse QB plays, less receptions but had KR scores that won't come Cooks way so I think 6 TDs is reasonable especially since he was on pace for 5 TDs last year in his rookie season. I think he improves his second year in the league.

 

[DaveL]

Ingram really isn't that good if a GL RB.

No, but Khiry might be...

 

[Milkman]

Ingram really isn't that good if a GL RB.

No, but Khiry might be...

Ok? I still see increased usage in the red zone for Cooks. They just lost a monster in the red zone.

 

[JetMaxx]

Why can't he be Antonio Brown v2?

 

[jurb26]

Ingram really isn't that good if a GL RB.

No, but Khiry might be...

Ok? I still see increased usage in the red zone for Cooks. They just lost a monster in the red zone.

Right, they lost a monster in the red zone but why assume they will just transfer that role over to Cooks, who's game is nothing like Graham? If anything, this probably means good things for Colston. More than likely, it means good things for the RBs.

 

[msudaisy26]

Cooks is never going to be a red zone guy....just like Harvin when he was the only weapon in Minny, he may get a lot of targets and gadget plays and even runs but his TDs will never be high given he will not be a red zone guy, and that is why he will never be in that top tier. If the situation changes next year where they get a WR high in the draft, then his numbers will take a hit. Add to that the fact that his body is (like Harvin), very prone to injuries at this level, as evidenced last year.

You don't know if he will be a red zone guy or not. Harvin wasn't, but Cobb had well over half of his touchdowns come in the red zone last year.

 

[Milkman]

Ingram really isn't that good if a GL RB.

No, but Khiry might be...

Ok? I still see increased usage in the red zone for Cooks. They just lost a monster in the red zone.

Right, they lost a monster in the red zone but why assume they will just transfer that role over to Cooks, who's game is nothing like Graham? If anything, this probably means good things for Colston. More than likely, it means good things for the RBs.

I'm not projecting he is going to take over Graham's role. Just that he may be targeted more in the red zone because Graham is gone. I don't see Cooks getting over 10 TDs either way though.

 

[BoltBacker]

Why can't he be Antonio Brown v2?

Why do you have to be a hater? You implying he can't be Jerry Rice+?

 

[Ghost Rider]

Also Percy never had much in terms of QBs and certainly he never had a QB on par with Drew Brees who is a legit HOF candidate when he hangs up his cleats. Also I have more faith in Sean Payton than any other offensive coaches Percy had. The Brees/Payton combo works in Cooks favor IMHO. I think that is the key advantage an undersized WR like Cooks has over other smaller/undersized first round WRs like Percy Harvin or Tavon Austin who didn't have similar QB play/production or a HC like Sean Payton.

In Pecy's best scoring years, his first three in the league, he had, 6 (8 if including KR TDs), 6 (7 if including KR TD), and 8 (9 if including KR TD), combined scores on, 60, 71, and 87 receptions. He had much worse QB plays, less receptions but had KR scores that won't come Cooks way so I think 6 TDs is reasonable especially since he was on pace for 5 TDs last year in his rookie season. I think he improves his second year in the league.

Harvin has been in the league six seasons, and on four of his opening days, his QB was either Brett Favre (future HoFer and top 10 all-timer) or Russell Wilson (top young QB).

 

[jtd13]

Why can't he be Antonio Brown v2?

This. I don't get how people are suggesting he's getting drafted at his ceiling at WR16. His ceiling is Antonio Browns last couple seasons. Like Brown he was crazy productive in college, and could be a target hog from a future HOF QB. He also has draft pedigree and elite agility and speed measurables. He scored 17 TDs his junior year of college. What's not to like?

 

[DropKick]

The effectiveness of how NO runs the ball is not what I'm talking about. It's how often they decide to run the ball. NO ranked 2nd in pass attempts last year, 19th in rushing.

They spent the off season letting go of their top 2 receiving options, resigning their top RB, signing Spiller and drafting heavy on the defensive side of the ball. They spent the 13 pick in a T, then 31 and 44 on LBs.

You assume the vacated targets of Graham and Stills just get distributed back and the most logical influx goes to Cooks. I don't think it's that simple. Cooks is certainly in line for a larger role but that doesn't have to mean NO remains pass happy.

I don't think Sean Payton would decide to dramatically increase the rushing attempts of his offense at the expense of his passing attack without looking into how effective the rushing attack was in comparison to the passing game. I'm sure he would go with what works best and if you look at the top rushing teams they have a durable big power RB in addition to a solid offensive lines along with a top defense.

I think anyone would take into consideration how effective the rushing attack was in comparison to the passing attack before looking at the Saints and the offensive history Sean Payton has adopted over his long career.

New Orleans let go of their top two targeted receiving threats and they must have some strategy. We know that last year they moved-up to draft a WR in the first round and this year made no attempts to add any major receiving threats. We know that Cooks is back healthy and all reports are positive and he is no longer a rookie and Payton has tried at least two roles for him and is sure to have plotted a strategy of how to use Cooks.

I do not assume the targets lost with Graham and Stills or the addition of CJ Spiller or drafted an OT in the first round indicate the offense will shift to emphasizing the backfield where you seem to see a heavy increase in production to the RBs. I don't assume that because the Saints rushing attack was targeted highly and was not as effective as their receivers with the ball.

I do like CJ Spiller, he is a great threat when healthy but he's only played all sixteen games in his second and third of his five seasons in the league. In those five years Spiller has been placed on the Injury list 19 times for various injuries to his, hamstring, shoulder, knee, quad, and ankle.

http://www.kffl.com/player/22484/nfl/injury_history/c.j.-spiller

CJ Spiller has missed 10 games in five years and parts of at least five other games due to injuries. Mark Ingram has played four years and missed 11 games. Kiry Robinson has only played two years and missed 10 games. I don't see a big durable back to build a power running game around. I don't see a huge increase in the 193 targets that the Saint RBs/FBs got last year.

I don't think its simple but I don't think its that complicated either. I think WR Brandin Cooks is poised for a huge increase in targets and production.

I share your optimism about Cooks upside. But I wouldn't try to draw conclusions about roles or game plans based on the loss of Graham and Stills. Sometimes its just about the contracts or the personalities. As I recall, the Saints are/were in the worst cap position of any team.

Maybe its all rhetoric, but their coach and GM all talk about the offense being a strength and the defense a weakness. One quote I recall was "we don't want to have to score 35 points to win a game". I expect a decline as a Brees owner. Plus, for the past two seasons, he has shifted from a "must start" guy to play him when the Saints are at home.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Also Percy never had much in terms of QBs and certainly he never had a QB on par with Drew Brees who is a legit HOF candidate when he hangs up his cleats. Also I have more faith in Sean Payton than any other offensive coaches Percy had. The Brees/Payton combo works in Cooks favor IMHO. I think that is the key advantage an undersized WR like Cooks has over other smaller/undersized first round WRs like Percy Harvin or Tavon Austin who didn't have similar QB play/production or a HC like Sean Payton.

In Pecy's best scoring years, his first three in the league, he had, 6 (8 if including KR TDs), 6 (7 if including KR TD), and 8 (9 if including KR TD), combined scores on, 60, 71, and 87 receptions. He had much worse QB plays, less receptions but had KR scores that won't come Cooks way so I think 6 TDs is reasonable especially since he was on pace for 5 TDs last year in his rookie season. I think he improves his second year in the league.

Harvin has been in the league six seasons, and on four of his opening days, his QB was either Brett Favre (future HoFer and top 10 all-timer) or Russell Wilson (top young QB).

He did. He not only had Brett Farve and Russell Wilson he also had another HOF QB in Donovan McNabb under center but lets take a closer look and compare his QB production with Drew Brees over the same time frame to get a 'feel' for how much difference their is in quarterback play.

He had Brett Farve in Minnesota for his first two years and in the very first year 2009 Brett put up 4,202 yards with 33 TDs. HOF numbers at QB in his 'rookie' year. Next year when Percy wasn't a rookie and where he could make a leap in production did Brett Farve put up HOF numbers?

QBs WR Percy Havin had to play with over his career

2009 Brett Farve 4,202 yards 33 TDs (Farve started all 16 games) HOF numbers by HOF QB in Percy Havin's ROOKIE season (Percy 15 starts).

2010 Brett Farve 2,509 yards 11 TDs (Farve only had 13 starts)

Other QBs who played in 2010? Christian Ponder, Tavaris Jackson (1 start - stats for year 341 yards 3 TD) , Joe Webb (2 starts 477 yards 0 TDs)

Total QB production for 2010? 3,327 passing yards 14 TDs.

2011 his starting QBs? Christian Ponder (10 starts ) and another HOF QB at the end of his career in Donovan McNabb (6 starts ).

After this time Percy never played a full 16 game season.

2012 his starting QB, Christian Ponder (16 starts 2,935 yards 13 TDs) Percy only started 9 games

2013 Russell Wilson (Percy only started 1 game so the stats Russell posted don't mean much.

2014 Russell Wilson (played five games in Seattle before they traded him to NY Jets) Michael Vick/Geno Smith

You can break out the 8 games he played in Seattle, a team that didn't want him and then break out the Vick/Geno stats if you want but its pretty evident that the QB play that Percy Havin had over his career was not HOF caliber.

Lets look at the numbers posted by Drew Brees over the same time frame to compare and try to figure out if Percy Havin would have benefited by playing with Brees and I'll add Sean Payton since Brandin Cooks will be playing with Brees in Payton's offense.

2009 - 4,388 YDS 34 TDS

2010 - 4,620 YDS 33 TDS

2011 - 5,376 YDS 46 TDS

2012 - 5,177 YDS 43 TDS

2013 - 5,162 YDS 39 TDS

2014 - 4,952 YDS 33 TDS

HOF numbers posted by HOF QB in his prime.

I think its obvious that Percy Havin did not have the same QB or offense that Brandin Cooks will have even if Brees is nearing the end of his career Cooks is entering his second season and should benefit greatly by his opportunity that Percy never really had.

 

[jurb26]

Cooks isn't going to have the same offense Brees had in those years, either.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Cooks isn't going to have the same offense Brees had in those years, either.

OK, what do you think is going to happen with the New Orleans Saints offense since you have hinted at a big change?

 

[jurb26]

Cooks isn't going to have the same offense Brees had in those years, either.

OK, what do you think is going to happen with the New Orleans Saints offense since you have hinted at a big change?

I've said it pretty clearly already. They aren't going to throw the ball as much.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Cooks isn't going to have the same offense Brees had in those years, either.

OK, what do you think is going to happen with the New Orleans Saints offense since you have hinted at a big change?

I've said it pretty clearly already. They aren't going to throw the ball as much.

You've said they won't throw the ball as much and will go to more of a running game which isn't very valuable. Its like someone saying that Percy Harvin had a HOF QB in Brett Farve when the numbers show the reality.

You keep saying they won't throw as much but you haven't plugged in any numbers so their is no way to know your interpretation of the phrase 'they won't throw as much' when that is open to interpretation. Their is an old quote by the French philosopher Voltaire that goes something like "How many an argument would be reduced to a sentence if the participants had the courage to define their terms.

If you post your projections then we may agree but you haven't so I have no idea what you mean when you say 'they won't throw the ball as much' since that is wide open to interpretation.

 

[Slider]

Sean Payton is not going to change his style. They'll throw the heck out of the ball until they get a new coach.

 

[jurb26]

Cooks isn't going to have the same offense Brees had in those years, either.

OK, what do you think is going to happen with the New Orleans Saints offense since you have hinted at a big change?

I've said it pretty clearly already. They aren't going to throw the ball as much.

You've said they won't throw the ball as much and will go to more of a running game which isn't very valuable. Its like someone saying that Percy Harvin had a HOF QB in Brett Farve when the numbers show the reality.You keep saying they won't throw as much but you haven't plugged in any numbers so their is no way to know your interpretation of the phrase 'they won't throw as much' when that is open to interpretation. Their is an old quote by the French philosopher Voltaire that goes something like "How many an argument would be reduced to a sentence if the participants had the courage to define their terms.

If you post your projections then we may agree but you haven't so I have no idea what you mean when you say 'they won't throw the ball as much' since that is wide open to interpretation.

So the only way to add validity to a concept is to make projections? That's absurd. You could just as easily take or leave my projections. Waksman provided projections that allude to the same concept I'm referring too. I've posted background information as to why I feel they will be more conservative mothers have also added in to the banter that NO might be shoplifting to a more conservative offense. I plan on providing my projections when I'm done with them, but this seems like a silly thing to sway your opinion.

Here's are some simple question for you.

Do you think NO will be more conservative this year?

More or less than 659 passing attempts?

What run/pass ratio do you expect? Last year they where 59.1% pass.

 

[PhantomJB]

Sean Payton is not going to change his style. They'll throw the heck out of the ball until they get a new coach.

Agreed.

Last 5 years' pass attempts under Payton: 659, 651, 671, 662, 661

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Sorry but you have not projected anything and have only made vague references to lower passing numbers equating to lower numbers for Brandin Cooks.

The thread is about Cooks and since we are on the brink of TC people are trying to figure out, i.e., PROJECT what Brandin Cooks will do this year.

The arguments for an increase in production for WR Brandin Cooks

- Over 200 targets gone from Saints offense, WR Kenny Stills and TE Jimmy Graham

- Saints moved-up to draft WR Brandin Cooks last year so they value him highly and they didn't draft a single WR or TE this year meaning those targets will not vanish entirely and a large portion should go to Cooks

- Payton tried one role that wasn't working and then successfully changed role for Cooks last year increasing his yards per reception dramatically

- Cooks entering 2nd NFL season, no longer a rookie, WRs entering 2nd season trends show biggest production increase

- Drew Brees is a HOF QB and still posting HOF numbers and should continue

- Sean Payton's long history of successfully passing the football

Arguments against

- Saints signed RB C.J. Spiller and will run and/or throw to RBs more.

Saints threw 193 times to RB/FBs last year so I see no dramatic increase to an already highly targeted positional group that average less than 4 yards per reception which was about 10 yards less than Cooks after Payton changed his role and was about half of what he averaged when he was running shorter routes that the RB/FBs ran.

- The Saints signed a big FA OG last year and drafted an OT first round this year and will move to a run dominant offense.

The run game was successful last year (finished in the top half of the league 15th) and doesn't have a lot of room to improve and this is what I am most prepared to argue against because their are reasons why this argument is weak. If you think otherwise I can show the numbers do not make sense for the Saints to suddenly depart from a passing offense to smash mouth ball control offense. It really does not make sense.

- Cooks is small and injury prone

Busted thumb completely healthy with no long term hindrance. Other small highly touted WRs who have not been as successful didn't have a QB like Brees or an offense like Payton's

- Drew Brees is done or will be done during the season or some such nonsense.

He is nearing the end of his career but people had completely written off Peyton Manning after numerous neck surgeries and last year Bill Belichick nearly spat in the face of a reporter asking if Tom Brady would be replaced after a bad game. So no. Not buying this line of reasoning till dirt is being shoveled on the grave. If anyone wants to argue that then I have one thing to say. Prove it.

I posted my projection for Brandin Cooks and showed my work but you keep making a vague statement about less passing numbers but you won't post your projection. You do that work because I've made my projection and I've shown my work.

 

[jurb26]

You've left off some critical information in your post/analysis. That being the major attention to the NO defense. You say NO traded up for Cooks and that's a good sign. Sure, it means they like him as a player and felt worthy of moving up. You must also consider that NO essentially traded Graham, one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL, to draft a LB. Think about that for a minute.

Not only did NO draft a LB at 31, they also drafted another at 44. Then they picked a CB 78. This is on top of their offseason moves which included brining in Browner (CB), Ellerbe (LB) and another major Olinemen in Unger.

NO has been saying they want more balance and to not need to score so many points to win games. Rhetoric perhaps? I don't think so because they have made a clear indication of these intentions with their offseason moves as well. So we have a team saying they want to become more conservative. That same team trades away one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL. They also let their top WR (due to injury but still) walk. Then they also spend HEAVILY on improving their Oline and Defense.

Do I think they totally abandon their pass happy ways? No, not in the least. I'm still projecting over 600 attempts. I do however expect more balance. I also don't think their passing efficiency will be quite as good after losing a dominant player like Graham.

I'm flattered that my projections mean so much to you. Unfortunately, I don't do player projects... Per say. I do team projections and the players become a function of the overall team. I'm not going to abandon my process because others might get a little impatient. That said, I've completed my NO projections and below are the Cooks numbers.

My projections for Cooks;

Receiving; 115 targets, 80 receptions, 950 yds, 5 TDs

Rushing; 14 carries, 112 yds, 1 TD

Total; 1062 yds & 6 TDs

 

[Faust]

WR Consensus Projections

Current consensus projections for Cooks from Fantasy Pros (based on 4 sources):

82.6 Receptions for 1028.8 yards and 5.7 TDs

12.2 Rushes for 83.6 yards and 0.1 TDs

1112.4 total yards and 5.8 TDs

 

[jurb26]

WR Consensus Projections

Current consensus projections for Cooks from Fantasy Pros (based on 4 sources):

82.6 Receptions for 1028.8 yards and 5.7 TDs

12.2 Rushes for 83.6 yards and 0.1 TDs

1112.4 total yards and 5.8 TDs

So I'm in the ballpark but a bit more conservative. Pretty much what I expected.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

You want me to seriously address the argument that the New Orleans Saints are going to pound the rock and play ball control with their defense? Really? OK, why not look at the Saints draft class over the past seven years to see if they were drafting heavily on defense and how much impact that made?

2008

1st round 7th pick DEFENSE DT Sedrick Ellis

2nd round 40th pick DEFENSE DB Tracy Porter

3rd pick 5th round 144th pick DEFENSE DT DeMario Pressley

2009

1st round 14th pick DEFENSE DB Malcolm Jenkins

2nd pick 4th round DEFENSE DB Chip Vaughn

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Stanley Arnoux

2010

1st round 32nd pick DEFENSE DB Patrick Robinson

2nd round 64th pick OFFENSIVE LINE T Charles Brown

3rd round 95th pick TE JIMMY GRAHAM

2011

1st round DEFENSE DE Cameron Jordan

1st round RB MARK INGRAM

3rd round DEFENSE LB Martez Wilson

2012

1st pick 3rd round DEFENSE DE Akiem Hicks

2nd pick 4th round WR NICK TOON

3rd pick 5th round DEFENSE DB Corey White

2013

1st round DEFENSE DB Kenny Vaccaro

2nd pick 3rd round OFFENSIVE LINE T Terron Armstead

3rd pick 3rd round DEFENSE DT John Jenkins

2014

1st round WR BRANDIN COOKS

2nd round DEFENSE DB Stanley Jean-Baptiste

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Khairi Fortt

SEVENTEEN PICKS ON THE DEFENSE OR OFFENSIVE LINE over the 7 drafts were used on the top-three draft picks before this past May. Only four were made on other picks during that time frame.

QUESTION

Did making that investment make the New Orleans Saints a defensive team that ran a ball control offense?

 

[jurb26]

You want me to seriously address the argument that the New Orleans Saints are going to pound the rock and play ball control with their defense? Really? OK, why not look at the Saints draft class over the past seven years to see if they were drafting heavily on defense and how much impact that made?

2008

1st round 7th pick DEFENSE DT Sedrick Ellis

2nd round 40th pick DEFENSE DB Tracy Porter

3rd pick 5th round 144th pick DEFENSE DT DeMario Pressley

2009

1st round 14th pick DEFENSE DB Malcolm Jenkins

2nd pick 4th round DEFENSE DB Chip Vaughn

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Stanley Arnoux

2010

1st round 32nd pick DEFENSE DB Patrick Robinson

2nd round 64th pick OFFENSIVE LINE T Charles Brown

3rd round 95th pick TE JIMMY GRAHAM

2011

1st round DEFENSE DE Cameron Jordan

1st round RB MARK INGRAM

3rd round DEFENSE LB Martez Wilson

2012

1st pick 3rd round DEFENSE DE Akiem Hicks

2nd pick 4th round WR NICK TOON

3rd pick 5th round DEFENSE DB Corey White

2013

1st round DEFENSE DB Kenny Vaccaro

2nd pick 3rd round OFFENSIVE LINE T Terron Armstead

3rd pick 3rd round DEFENSE DT John Jenkins

2014

1st round WR BRANDIN COOKS

2nd round DEFENSE DB Stanley Jean-Baptiste

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Khairi Fortt

SEVENTEEN PICKS ON THE DEFENSE OR OFFENSIVE LINE over the 7 drafts were used on the top-three draft picks before this past May. Only four were made on other picks during that time frame.

QUESTION

Did making that investment make the New Orleans Saints a defensive team that ran a ball control offense?

Address whatever you want, which seems to be your intention. This isn't the first time you've ignored my actual stance to create an argument that doesn't exist. First making things about rushing efficiency. Now making it about "ground and pound." I'd love to know how projecting a team for over 600 passing attempts qualifies as ground and pound. 609 to be exacte. Here's is what I actually said in reference to your above post.

Do I think they totally abandon their pass happy ways? No, not in the least. I'm still projecting over 600 attempts. I do however expect more balance. I also don't think their passing efficiency will be quite as good after losing a dominant player like Graham.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Address whatever you want, which seems to be your intention. This isn't the first time you've ignored my actual stance to create an argument that doesn't exist.

That seems to be your MO because you said I didn't address the investment in the New Orleans defense and accused me of avoiding that because that apparently is what you do because you did the same thing above:

Posted Today, 11:18 AM

You've left off some critical information in your post/analysis. That being the major attention to the NO defense. You say NO traded up for Cooks and that's a good sign. Sure, it means they like him as a player and felt worthy of moving up. You must also consider that NO essentially traded Graham, one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL, to draft a LB. Think about that for a minute.Not only did NO draft a LB at 31, they also drafted another at 44. Then they picked a CB 78. This is on top of their offseason moves which included brining in Browner (CB), Ellerbe (LB) and another major Olinemen in Unger.

NO has been saying they want more balance and to not need to score so many points to win games. Rhetoric perhaps? I don't think so because they have made a clear indication of these intentions with their offseason moves as well. So we have a team saying they want to become more conservative. That same team trades away one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL. They also let their top WR (due to injury but still) walk. Then they also spend HEAVILY on improving their Oline and Defense.

I address it and you decide to make another attack. Why? Did I avoid or answer your argument that the Saints invested in their defense?

Best of luck to you.

 

[jurb26]

Address whatever you want, which seems to be your intention. This isn't the first time you've ignored my actual stance to create an argument that doesn't exist.

That seems to be your MO because you said I didn't address the investment in the New Orleans defense and accused me of avoiding that because that apparently is what you do because you did the same thing above:

Posted Today, 11:18 AM

You've left off some critical information in your post/analysis. That being the major attention to the NO defense. You say NO traded up for Cooks and that's a good sign. Sure, it means they like him as a player and felt worthy of moving up. You must also consider that NO essentially traded Graham, one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL, to draft a LB. Think about that for a minute.

Not only did NO draft a LB at 31, they also drafted another at 44. Then they picked a CB 78. This is on top of their offseason moves which included brining in Browner (CB), Ellerbe (LB) and another major Olinemen in Unger.

NO has been saying they want more balance and to not need to score so many points to win games. Rhetoric perhaps? I don't think so because they have made a clear indication of these intentions with their offseason moves as well. So we have a team saying they want to become more conservative. That same team trades away one of the most dominant pass catchers in the NFL. They also let their top WR (due to injury but still) walk. Then they also spend HEAVILY on improving their Oline and Defense.

I address it and you decide to make another attack. Why? Did I avoid or answer your argument that the Saints invested in their defense?Best of luck to you.

Attack you? I'm simply pointing out an observation. I'm not sure why you are so sensitive about it. Where in the below post did you address the defense? Heck, I don't even see you mention it.

Sorry but you have not projected anything and have only made vague references to lower passing numbers equating to lower numbers for Brandin Cooks.

The thread is about Cooks and since we are on the brink of TC people are trying to figure out, i.e., PROJECT what Brandin Cooks will do this year.

The arguments for an increase in production for WR Brandin Cooks

- Over 200 targets gone from Saints offense, WR Kenny Stills and TE Jimmy Graham

- Saints moved-up to draft WR Brandin Cooks last year so they value him highly and they didn't draft a single WR or TE this year meaning those targets will not vanish entirely and a large portion should go to Cooks

- Payton tried one role that wasn't working and then successfully changed role for Cooks last year increasing his yards per reception dramatically

- Cooks entering 2nd NFL season, no longer a rookie, WRs entering 2nd season trends show biggest production increase

- Drew Brees is a HOF QB and still posting HOF numbers and should continue

- Sean Payton's long history of successfully passing the football

Arguments against

- Saints signed RB C.J. Spiller and will run and/or throw to RBs more.

Saints threw 193 times to RB/FBs last year so I see no dramatic increase to an already highly targeted positional group that average less than 4 yards per reception which was about 10 yards less than Cooks after Payton changed his role and was about half of what he averaged when he was running shorter routes that the RB/FBs ran.

- The Saints signed a big FA OG last year and drafted an OT first round this year and will move to a run dominant offense.

The run game was successful last year (finished in the top half of the league 15th) and doesn't have a lot of room to improve and this is what I am most prepared to argue against because their are reasons why this argument is weak. If you think otherwise I can show the numbers do not make sense for the Saints to suddenly depart from a passing offense to smash mouth ball control offense. It really does not make sense.

- Cooks is small and injury prone

Busted thumb completely healthy with no long term hindrance. Other small highly touted WRs who have not been as successful didn't have a QB like Brees or an offense like Payton's

- Drew Brees is done or will be done during the season or some such nonsense.

He is nearing the end of his career but people had completely written off Peyton Manning after numerous neck surgeries and last year Bill Belichick nearly spat in the face of a reporter asking if Tom Brady would be replaced after a bad game. So no. Not buying this line of reasoning till dirt is being shoveled on the grave. If anyone wants to argue that then I have one thing to say. Prove it.

I posted my projection for Brandin Cooks and showed my work but you keep making a vague statement about less passing numbers but you won't post your projection. You do that work because I've made my projection and I've shown my work.

You have 2x now misrepresented my actual stance. I'm simply correcting you on it. That means I'm attacking you?

 

[msudaisy26]

Sean Payton is not going to change his style. They'll throw the heck out of the ball until they get a new coach.

Agreed.

Last 5 years' pass attempts under Payton: 659, 651, 671, 662, 661

I disagree with it, Payton knows he is on the hot seat and I think he is smart enough to change because they don't have the receiving weapons they had in the past. I see under 600 attempts this year, unless their defense is just god awful and they are always playing from behind.

 

[PhantomJB]

Sean Payton is not going to change his style. They'll throw the heck out of the ball until they get a new coach.

Agreed.

Last 5 years' pass attempts under Payton: 659, 651, 671, 662, 661

I disagree with it, Payton knows he is on the hot seat and I think he is smart enough to change because they don't have the receiving weapons they had in the past. I see under 600 attempts this year, unless their defense is just god awful and they are always playing from behind.

No worries disagreeing. But Brees/Payton have historically done more with fewer "receiving weapons."

In 2010 Brees put up 4,600 yds / 33 TD's with the following "receiving weapons:"

Colston

Meachem

L.Moore

D. Henderson

J.Shockey/D.Thomas

A.Arrington

My projections for Cooks are more in the 80 recpts / 1,200 total yds / 6-8 TD range.

Payton is who he is. Hot seat or not, IMO while he may tweak on the margins and/or seek to better execute, coaches won't suddenly philosophically become someone they aren't. Especially without wholesale changes to personnel.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Seems less like an attack, and more like poor logic

 

[buck naked]

Cooks is never going to be a red zone guy....just like Harvin when he was the only weapon in Minny, he may get a lot of targets and gadget plays and even runs but his TDs will never be high given he will not be a red zone guy, and that is why he will never be in that top tier. If the situation changes next year where they get a WR high in the draft, then his numbers will take a hit. Add to that the fact that his body is (like Harvin), very prone to injuries at this level, as evidenced last year.

He had a broken thumb.

How about it. Like that makes him injury-prone. EVERYBODY should be deemed injury-prone when 250 lb+ men fly around making inhumane collisions with one another.

 

[DropKick]

You want me to seriously address the argument that the New Orleans Saints are going to pound the rock and play ball control with their defense? Really? OK, why not look at the Saints draft class over the past seven years to see if they were drafting heavily on defense and how much impact that made?

2008

1st round 7th pick DEFENSE DT Sedrick Ellis

2nd round 40th pick DEFENSE DB Tracy Porter

3rd pick 5th round 144th pick DEFENSE DT DeMario Pressley

2009

1st round 14th pick DEFENSE DB Malcolm Jenkins

2nd pick 4th round DEFENSE DB Chip Vaughn

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Stanley Arnoux

2010

1st round 32nd pick DEFENSE DB Patrick Robinson

2nd round 64th pick OFFENSIVE LINE T Charles Brown

3rd round 95th pick TE JIMMY GRAHAM

2011

1st round DEFENSE DE Cameron Jordan

1st round RB MARK INGRAM

3rd round DEFENSE LB Martez Wilson

2012

1st pick 3rd round DEFENSE DE Akiem Hicks

2nd pick 4th round WR NICK TOON

3rd pick 5th round DEFENSE DB Corey White

2013

1st round DEFENSE DB Kenny Vaccaro

2nd pick 3rd round OFFENSIVE LINE T Terron Armstead

3rd pick 3rd round DEFENSE DT John Jenkins

2014

1st round WR BRANDIN COOKS

2nd round DEFENSE DB Stanley Jean-Baptiste

3rd pick 4th round DEFENSE LB Khairi Fortt

SEVENTEEN PICKS ON THE DEFENSE OR OFFENSIVE LINE over the 7 drafts were used on the top-three draft picks before this past May. Only four were made on other picks during that time frame.

QUESTION

Did making that investment make the New Orleans Saints a defensive team that ran a ball control offense?

You need to take it down a few notches. People have suggested the Saints may throw less and try to be more balanced. That isn't the same as "pounding the rock and playing ball control with their defense". There is middle ground; it isn't one extreme or another.

ETA: Even with less reliance on the the passing game, there is still a big opportunity for Cooks.

 

[Slider]

No coach can just become more balanced. They do what they do and they'll get fired doing it. They've done it one way all their life and it's what they know. I can't believe people think Payton has Brees and he's going to run it more. Seems to me if he's on the hot seat he's going to use his best weapons to win.

Becoming more balanced is much easier said than done. He may well want to but when the game's on the line he's going to what he knows best and throwing it.

I think Cooks beats those projections handily.

 

[Jack White]

No coach can just become more balanced. They do what they do and they'll get fired doing it. They've done it one way all their life and it's what they know. I can't believe people think Payton has Brees and he's going to run it more. Seems to me if he's on the hot seat he's going to use his best weapons to win.

Becoming more balanced is much easier said than done. He may well want to but when the game's on the line he's going to what he knows best and throwing it.

I think Cooks beats those projections handily.

Would you take him at Pick 25 (PPR) over the likes of Sanders, Kelvin, TY, Hopkins and Evans?