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WR Chris Olave, NO (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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titusbramble
Footballguy
Think it's a perfect spot to try to flip him plus another player/draft pick from somewhere you have value that's expendable- Olave still clearly holds a decent chunk of value, but is volatile, there's usually going to be someone with a better player but lack of WR depth/quality who'd look to a deal that would give them a small hit at one starting spot but a bigger bump elsewhere. Granted, this is exactly what I did with my Olave share a couple of months ago, but I'd do the same thing again today
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
How is Olave looking for 2025? I find the FBG dynasty rankings encouraging and he’s WR23 for my SF scoring system. Any takes out there on if he’s on the rise or not?
A lot probably depends on the draft, as far as what happens at QB for NO. I think low-end WR2 is probably fair right now. I think bringing in Kellen Moore can only be a positive.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
With the Carr news, he has to be closer to a riser than a faller
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Is it the Spencer Rattler era now?
eighsse2
Footballguy
This is where I'm at, as an owner since last offseason. The probability that he ends up a career bust are significant, but I'm not just totally dismissing his potential either.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Got Olave, and hope NOLA drafts Dart, a slinger of the rock. Sanders wouldnt be bad there either, although I think Rattler would start the season for them regardless.
I remember reading how Carr was the cause of his concussions with bad throws, if true, maybe a new QB helps his head.
I remember reading how Carr was the cause of his concussions with bad throws, if true, maybe a new QB helps his head.
He's had 5 concussions and Carr was the QB on just 2 of them.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Do they count if he can't remember the other 3?
steelcityman
Footballguy
Thanks. I’m not that much of a nerd to know that. Just recall hearing how Carr hung him out often.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I was higher than most on him last year then dealt with all of the missed games. I’m not doing that again
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Did they exercise the 5th year option?
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eighsse2
Footballguy
Last I heard was that they plan to do so.
They did do it.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Talent is definitely there, but concussions and questions at QB with or without Carr have knocked him down to a flyer pick later in drafts for me.
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
The extension is a promising sign.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I love his skill set. Speed. Route running. Hands. Just a good playmaker. The problem is, altbough Carr targeted him, they just never seems to clicked. His throws always seemed off to him. The other problem is that the QB is prolly gonna be even worse this year. Smh.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I love how the Steelers are linked to trading for all these receivers yet do not have a quarterback to throw to them.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Rudolph is a great deep thrower of the ball. Its the 5-10 yard stuff he struggles with. We saw what Howard can do with those WRs at OSU. Rodgers, can still sling it. If the Steelers could get a ready to go, focused Rodgers, and Olave before mini camp, they might be AFC North champions in 2025. Defense is set. OL set, RBs set. Need a WR2 and QB. Its 2 phone calls and a couple draft picks away. But I think the Steelers consider those three 3s next year like 3 gold bricks.
I don't think you should be either and I don't say that to say he's bad but more to the point to say he is what he is. Which is good, he's not an average talent, he's a good but not great real life NFL WR2 and will likely usually fall somewhere in the low end WR2/WR3 range in fantasy. Health provided of course.
I just don't think you should expect tangible improvement from him, though of course there is always a chance he could be paired with a different QB or scheme that could lead to massive uptick in stats. I just don't think he'll have much internal improvement.
I don't think I said it in this thread but some other threads during or after his rookie season that I think people were making the mistake of seeing his productive season in year one and concluding his statistical growth would continue to climb, possibly immensely. This of course makes sense because it's normally how it goes.
But he actually entered the league so polished, so NFL ready, I just don't think he had a whole lot of room to grow and improve. Would not say a totally finished product, but not far off.
They were unlucky, but one more and who knows......
dipandglide
Footballguy
This man needs Kirk Cousins!
One thing I'll say for Olave, is Kellen Moore offenses have been very #1 WR friendly, and Olave is almost certainly going to be that guy, on a team that seems likely to be trailing a lot, and in garbage time. I wouldn't assume we've seen Olave's best yet, and I do think he has #1 WR talent. For a guy going as a middling WR3, if he stays healthy, he's all upside. He's being drafted near his floor.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Four concussions with 2 last year puts him as too risky for me. Will go earlier than I’m comfortable taking him. Contextualizing it as being unlucky downplays the health risk. Hopefully nothing comes of it but I think retirement should be more on the table.
dipandglide
Footballguy
The concussions aren't good, but guys like Olave and Tua will be on my rosters at their prices if their NFL teams plan to roll them out there. NFL teams know more about their medicals than we do. Every player carries injury risk.
While it's true that every player carries injury risk, the issue w/ Olave (and Tua), is most players will miss 1 or 2 games but if either of these guys gets a concussion it's going to likely be closer to 6 or possibly more. If Olave makes it through the season healthy he will probably easily outperform his ADP but can't deny the risk and the wide range of outcomes.
jm192
Footballguy
I'm concerned Olave is 1 concussion away from retirement. And while anyone can have a season ending injury, Olave has less room for error here.
If he or the team decide to call it after a concussion: Then it's really not the same as someone else tearing an achilles or an ACL. Typically, a guy with a concussion is back in a week or 2, in some cases a little longer. But it's certainly not season ending in most cases. For Olave, it could be.
I'll add: The QB situation scares me as well. The cost certainly isn't bad. Rattler threw for less than 200 yards per game last year and 4 TD's in 7 games. Shough is an unproven rookie that they spent a 2nd round pick on.
He's certainly cheap enough, it's not going to hurt you to miss on him. I don't know that I see a high ceiling for him like I have in year's past.
If he or the team decide to call it after a concussion: Then it's really not the same as someone else tearing an achilles or an ACL. Typically, a guy with a concussion is back in a week or 2, in some cases a little longer. But it's certainly not season ending in most cases. For Olave, it could be.
I'll add: The QB situation scares me as well. The cost certainly isn't bad. Rattler threw for less than 200 yards per game last year and 4 TD's in 7 games. Shough is an unproven rookie that they spent a 2nd round pick on.
He's certainly cheap enough, it's not going to hurt you to miss on him. I don't know that I see a high ceiling for him like I have in year's past.
There is a concern of that, but man, Olave is a rare WR who wins at every level, and I think the Rattler (who in his defense had almost no Olave/Shaheed) stat is somewhat irrelevant. I mean, Olave had 1 healthy game with Rattler and went 8-107 against the Chargers. Olave had 81+ yards in 4 of his 6 healthy games last season.
I'm not as sure on that with Moore. Was not last year and we can cite some valid reasons but was not a great AJB season and Lamb went to another level after Moore left.
On the other part I think it's valid to point out that in their 5 fully healthy games together last year Shaheed was ahead of Olave on targets, receptions, receiving yards and TD's.
Now I think both of those things are more or less beside the point or secondary to him being able to stay healthy. If he can do that it's hard to see him not at least living up to his current ADP but I will say I've never thought he has the upside others do.
I don't think I really agree with the bolded.
Lamb's 2023 is arguable if it had anything to do with Moore leaving, his 2024 was very similar to his 2022 with Moore, only a little less efficient, but 2023 was the only season Lamb had where Dak stayed healthy, and that's likely the bigger deal than anything else. AJ Brown was his normal self last season, he just missed a month. He was on an 88-1411-9 pace (on a team with a 2,000-yard rusher and league best defense) and had career best efficiency. Keenan Allen had the best year of his career in his 1 season with Moore.
I will agree that Shaheed showed some real ability in his own right but is coming off a major knee injury, and I think is more big play dependent than Olave. Good chance he's being undervalued too though.
Even if you remove Lamb's firs two years when we can say he was still developing and isolate just the Dak games he still took a decent sized leap without Moore. Close to 3.5 PPR PPG game in Dak games in 23 and 24 vs Dak games in 2022.
AJB had his worst PPR PPG season since joining the Eagles. That's probably as much to do with Barkley so a valid reason but just the same nothing in his short stay in Philly to suggest he was a plus for his WR1.
I did not mention Keenan Allen but he'd be you have correctly cited to try and support the notion that Moore is a plus for WR's but when looking at context of Allens' season is was mainly volume driven on team that needed to throw and had lost their #2WR early and Allen had a few more efficient seasons. Just the same he's best example because volume is part of fantasy success that I think anyone can hold up as Moore elevating his #1WR and that's not much to go on for me. Not trying to say Moore is a negative, at all, just not seeing him as someone I would expect to take a WR to another level.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
These aren’t random injuries though. These are concussions and the damage gets worse each time.
Olave is an elite talent but watching some of those hits last year… I hope he finds a new profession.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Who knows how many concussions ALL NFL players have. Tua and Olave have been the most public which is why a lot of people are over reacting to specifically them. Football at that level is brutal. All of these guys carry risk each time they step on the field.
darksideofoz
Footballguy
it isn't an overreaction. it is paying attention to the current climate of the league and how many times those guys seriously cave their heads in.
Cooks had 5 concussions in his first 6 years when he came into the league including 2 in less than a month and is still playing in year 12. It may not be the best thing for his health long-term but I fully expect Olave to keep playing even if he does suffer another concussion.
jm192
Footballguy
Given the revamping of the concussion protocols and the threat of fines and such--I don't believe there are a bunch of secret/hidden concussions these days.
I certainly don't want to have some prolonged argument about "You can't prove these guys didn't have a bunch of concussions!!!" I guess I can't prove Olave didn't tear an ACL last year. But I don't have proof that he did, either.
What I do know: Olave was shut down for the season after his most recent concussion.
Tua missed 6 games with a concussion last year.
I think another concussion almost certainly means another extended absence. I also think in 2025, with all of the emphasis on player safety and CTE, there's a real chance the teams, the league, and the players have to have some difficult conversations if concussions continue to pile up.
Of course the NFL is a brutal game. And if you have your ACL torn, your year is done. But for 99% of the league, a concussion means a 1-2 week absence. 3 in rare cases. For guys like Tua and Olave--it likely means an extended absence. Maybe season/career ending. A concussion should be closer to a sprain in terms of fantasy football. But for a few guys, it's closer to an ACL tear.
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dipandglide
Footballguy
No one is going to watch flag football
I forgot about Cooks history. That's a great example of recency bias and how much it affects things in the short term.
jm192
Footballguy
I didn't say anything about flag football or suggest they change the game. Usually these kinds of replies don't lead to productive/serious conversation. So we'll leave it at that
