I think this is good news for everyone other than Palmer.
Chark plays outside 50+% the time in 3 WR sets. Ladd is all over the place and will eventually be a 95% snap guy. And they can deploy QJ in the slot or in motion, manufacture touches for him. Palmer splits outside reps and helps get Ladd some slot looks.
I have zero investment in QJ but if the new coaches are smart, they will read a minimum of one scouting report on QJ. Chark signing I take as a sign of that.
Agreed. It’s a sneaky good landing spot, and makes me feel slightly better about my recent acquisition of a Herbert share.
I'm sorry, but Herbert's rushing stats may not be enough to keep him in the fantasy QB1 mix. He's only finished once inside the QB top 10 (overall or PPG), and that was when he threw over 5K with 38 TD's. Under Harbaugh, Herbert is going to be a fine game manager, but a lousy fantasy QB. The Chargers are my favorite team, but the only guy that will likely be on my fantasy roster is Dicker the Kicker.
Sorry to derail the Chark thread.
It’s possible. I dunno - Kaepernick had some pretty good passing seasons under Harbaugh, and he was nowhere near the arm talent Herbert is. I guess time will tell on this one.
Harbaugh was the Niners HC from 2011 thru 2014
2011 - Alex Smith started every game and finished QB15 (QB22 in PPG). The Niners were 3rd in rushing attempts and 31st in passing attempts. Not a recipe for QB fantasy success.
2012 - Alex Smith starts the first 9 games and gets a concussion, leading to Kaepernick taking over the rest of the season. The Niners were 7th in rushing attempts and 31st in passing attempts. Prior to Smith's concussion, he was QB22 (QB21 in PPG). Kaepernick played the last 7 games and was QB7 during this time. But he wasn't QB7 because of his arm - only Cam Newton had more rushing attempts. Colin was 20th in pass attempts, and 14th in both passing yards and passing TD's. Only a very mobile QB can be fantasy relevant in this scheme, and only Colin was.
2013 - Kaepernick plays the entire season and finishes QB9 (QB13 in PPG). The Niners were 3rd in rushing attempts and dead last in pass attempts. He is QB3 in both rush attempts and rush TD's. Without his legs, Colin would be lucky to be QB20 in 2013.
2014 - Kaepernick again plays the entire season and finishes QB14 (QB17 in PPG). The Niners were 9th in rushing attempts and 29th in passing attempts. Colin rushes for an amazing 641 yards, but still can't break into QB1 territory, because he has only 1 rushing TD.
All this to say, Colin did NOT have any good passing seasons under Harbaugh - it was his legs. And therein lies the problem with Justin Herbert as it pertains to FF.
Roman's most recent season as a NFL OC was for the 2022 Ravens. Primary QB Lamar Jackson played 11 full games before getting hurt in the 12th game. In those 11 games, he averaged 29.3 pass attempts, 2.2 scrambles, and 2.3 sacks per game. He also had 5.5 designed runs per game. That is 39.3 plays per game for Jackson.
If they give Herbert 39.3 plays per game, it probably looks different, something like 2.3 runs (combined scrambles, sneaks), 2 sacks, and 35 pass attempts per game. But comparing the 2024 Chargers to the 2022 Ravens, Baltimore had a stronger defense and running game, which presumably enabled them to be more conservative on offense than the Chargers may be able to be this season. So maybe bump that to 36-37 pass attempts per game.
For context, Herbert has averaged 39.1 passing attempts per game for his career. Last season, excluding his last game when he got hurt, he averaged 36.6 passing attempts per game, which was his career low for a season. That was through week 13. Up to that point, Herbert was QB8 in total points and QB9 in ppg. That was in an offense with a weaker OL and running game than the Chargers will likely have this season, but with stronger targets (Allen, Williams for a few games, Ekeler, Everett vs. McConkey, Chark, Edwards/Dobbins/Vidal, Dissly/Hurst)... so maybe those factors wash out.
It's challenging to predict due to the significant amount of changes between the 2023 and 2024 Chargers, but I think Herbert will likely finish somewhere in the QB8 to QB10 range if he stays healthy.
As for Chark, I agree with
@travdogg. He is most likely WR4 right now, and one or more of the top 3 (Johnston, McConkey, Palmer) would have to get hurt or play really poorly to move him up the pecking order. Another issue for him with this coaching staff is run blocking. His PFF run blocking grades have been poor for most of his career. He probably has to be better in that area to have a chance at significant playing time. I also don't think it is out of the question that Rice or Johnson passes him for WR4 with a strong training camp.
If I was a Chark dynasty owner, I'd be trying to see if signing with LA bumped his value enough to get something useful for him in a trade.
