darksideofoz
Footballguy
Last year in CHI, their 3 top WR's had catch rates of 70.0% (Moore), 57.9% (Allen), and 53.5% (Odunze). Using your logic that Johnson wants Caleb to be at 70% completion rate, which one above looks likeliest to get the lion's share of the targets?Johnson pushing for the QB to get 70% completions this year. I think that is going to change the target distribution a ton.When you say team goals, what does that mean?I guess that's a way to look at it.Or is the new coaching staff looking for ways to get him the ball because they know he’ll be getting less targets in the receiving game?Bingo.That would mostly affect Odunze at the X, no? I see DJM as the multi-tool here getting touches all over the field because he's a YAC master and you need to give him touches to make things happen.I think I'm preferring Burden and even Loveland at value. Caleb Williams really needed more easy outs last year and Burden in the slot especially offers that. Williams really struggled with deeper balls.
We overcomplicate fantasy football sometimes. DJ Moore is coming off of a 98 reception season. New coaching staff is looking at new ways to get him the football. He's going to get the football. A lot.
I think he's undervalued
"We want this guy to get the ball so badly, we're going to hand it to him" doesn't really send the message "We're not going to throw this guy the ball" IMO. He's 28. It's not like he's "old" even by NFL standards. I feel like we're really forgetting how good the guy is.
I assume/think that people are viewing this as a Deebo Samuel situation and mentally viewing it the same. But keep in mind, Deebo isn't a great route runner or traditional receiver. DJ is far better at those things. So I don't know that "being used like Deebo out of the backfield" means Deebo volume in the passing game.
Also, just because he's lined up in the backfield doesn't mean they won't throw him the ball out of the backfield.
Furthermore, I'm not convinced that because the've lined him up in the backfield some of the time in camp, that he's going to see 50+ rushes this year. I'm sure it's something they'll use. But, we may spend a lot of time talking about "DJ Moore lining up in the backfield" and this time next year forget that it ever happened.
I take it as his targets could go/stay down not because he runs routes like Deebo, but because of the system, team goals and total number of legit pass catching options on the team.
I think they want to win football games. I think they want to throw the football a lot and score a lot of points. I think DJ Moore is their best WR. I think getting DJ Moore the football lines up really well with "team goals."
I think Caleb showed that he leans on him a lot last season. Certainly if Ben Johnson wants to use a guy like ARSB--Moore is much closer than the others.
This time last year, it was "Keenan Allen is really going to hurt DJ Moore's volume. DJ Moore had 4 more targets than the season before.
Now, sure, I think Rome takes a leap this year. But Rome had 101 targets last year. Keenan Allen vacated 121 targets.
I'm optomistic long term on Burden, but I think as of today DJ Moore is leaps and bounds better.
I just think people are doing calculus when you just need simple math.
Many very smart people and people that are at practices are saying Rome is in the process of taking the X/#1 this year. Moore is a great receiver and can play all over, but he wasn't being used to his strengths last year.
I laughed whenever anyone floated Kennan Allen being all that successful on that team last year.
calculus is simple math.
I am not looking at last year's stats to come up with what I think is going to happen this year. too much has and is changing. I don't play copy pasta last year's stats for this year's projections. never have. I know that is industry standard, but not how I learned to play decades ago.