WR Davante Adams, LAR (2 Viewers)

[LittlePhatty]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

 

[tangfoot]

so Adams doesn't become a WR1 automatically with Cobb getting all the Defense attention and GB TE's invisible on most weekends?

Automatically? No.

Both his ceiling and his floor have increased though... It was previously WR2 ceiling with WR3 floor, now he's WR1 ceiling with WR2 floor IMO.

I think it's way too early to say that he's got a WR1 ceiling this year. I'm cautiously optimistic and I think he has moved up into the mid-WR2 ceiling range.

Somewhere around WR18-20 if everything falls in place.

 

[werdnoynek]

so Adams doesn't become a WR1 automatically with Cobb getting all the Defense attention and GB TE's invisible on most weekends?

Automatically? No.

Both his ceiling and his floor have increased though... It was previously WR2 ceiling with WR3 floor, now he's WR1 ceiling with WR2 floor IMO.

I think it's way too early to say that he's got a WR1 ceiling this year. I'm cautiously optimistic and I think he has moved up into the mid-WR2 ceiling range.

Somewhere around WR18-20 if everything falls in place.

This offense supported two WR1's last year - both Cobb and Jordy were top 10 in most PPR formats. Why wouldn't his ceiling be that high??

As I said, Adams isn't a lock for a WR1, but given the situation - that is most definitely his ceiling IMO.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

 

[Sabertooth]

Was just offered Michael Floyd for Adams.

From a FF 'expert' no less.

Adams way more valuable than Floyd now, wouldn't even think of doing that.

Me neither.

This guy habitually makes lowball offers, tagging them with: 'it's fair by FF industry standards.'

Lol. What a jagoff.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

James Jones

2012 98 targets 64/784/14

2013 93 targets 59/817/3

average 96 targets 62/800/9

If you think Davante Adams = James Jones than 70/900/9 is probably a reasonable projection.

 

[tangfoot]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

James Jones

2012 98 targets 64/784/14

2013 93 targets 59/817/3

average 96 targets 62/800/9

If you think Davante Adams = James Jones than 70/900/9 is probably a reasonable projection.

I don't think you understand what an equal sign means. The stat line you just projected for Adams is 10% higher than Jones' average.

 

[tangfoot]

so Adams doesn't become a WR1 automatically with Cobb getting all the Defense attention and GB TE's invisible on most weekends?

Automatically? No.

Both his ceiling and his floor have increased though... It was previously WR2 ceiling with WR3 floor, now he's WR1 ceiling with WR2 floor IMO.

I think it's way too early to say that he's got a WR1 ceiling this year. I'm cautiously optimistic and I think he has moved up into the mid-WR2 ceiling range.

Somewhere around WR18-20 if everything falls in place.

This offense supported two WR1's last year - both Cobb and Jordy were top 10 in most PPR formats. Why wouldn't his ceiling be that high??

As I said, Adams isn't a lock for a WR1, but given the situation - that is most definitely his ceiling IMO.

I'm sorry, but I just don't see it happening like that. This isn't a "just replace Nelson with Cobb and Cobb with Adams" situation, as I see it. Especially when you consider that the TE targets have been falling (drastically) for the past two years and there appears to be some run on the story that TE Rodgers will be getting a significant uptick.

Hell, just based on the stories coming out of this summer, I was hearing that they wanted to lean more heavily on Lacy which means less plays and pass attempts overall. That puts total pass attempts under 500 without a lot of other changes.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

James Jones 2012 98 targets 64/784/14

2013 93 targets 59/817/3

average 96 targets 62/800/9

If you think Davante Adams = James Jones than 70/900/9 is probably a reasonable projection.

His skill set is definitely closer to Jones' than Nelson's IMO. And he is closer in size to Jones. Maybe he is a little more talented. I just don't see him coming in and dominating like many people believe. Being covered by a #1 or #2 corner is worlds different than being covered by a 3, 4, or safety.

 

[jtd13]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

James Jones

2012 98 targets 64/784/14

2013 93 targets 59/817/3

average 96 targets 62/800/9

If you think Davante Adams = James Jones than 70/900/9 is probably a reasonable projection.

I don't think you understand what an equal sign means. The stat line you just projected for Adams is 10% higher than Jones' average.

...And the targets he projected are 25% higher, so yeah the stats should be higher

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

I think its reasonable to project Aaron Rodgers to sling it 550 times this year. Thats a bit high for him, but I don't think you'll see quite as many 80 yard TDs without Jordy. (longer drives, more throws). Adams is clearly 2nd in the pecking order of the WRs right now. As such, he's very likely to get in excess of 100 targets. Probably more like 125. With Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball 100-125 times, what do you think he'll do?

70-900-9

James Jones

2012 98 targets 64/784/14

2013 93 targets 59/817/3

average 96 targets 62/800/9

If you think Davante Adams = James Jones than 70/900/9 is probably a reasonable projection.

I don't think you understand what an equal sign means. The stat line you just projected for Adams is 10% higher than Jones' average.

I sincerely thank you for this post. I've largely stayed away from posting in the SP so far this summer and this just reminds me why. Enjoy!

 

[LittlePhatty]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

"Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons." Wow, that makes it sound hard to break 1,200/10 with Rodgers at QB.

He came close to a third time in 2013 with 1,300 yards but only 8 TDs.

In 2012 he was injured half the season.

His first three seasons, Greg Jennings was the man and Jordy didn't see much playing time (lack of opportunity won't be a problem for Adams this season).

 

[Shutout]

so Adams doesn't become a WR1 automatically with Cobb getting all the Defense attention and GB TE's invisible on most weekends?

Automatically? No.

Both his ceiling and his floor have increased though... It was previously WR2 ceiling with WR3 floor, now he's WR1 ceiling with WR2 floor IMO.

Perhaps I am reading this too literally but when you say WR1 ceiling, are you saying top 12 WR? I think that is a bit too ambitious considering Jordy, himself, was on the back side of that label.

I get the idea of when a player going down, the thought that player X will absorb the void but I don't see the Packers as this type of team. I think the benefactors are that everyone just got a little stronger, the upside guys just got a secure hold on the map, the irrelevant becomes situational relevant, etc. More of a "high tide raises all boats" more than a "copy and paste".

 

[cstu]

These are the WR's who have caught 10+ TD's with Rodgers:

Rk 		        Year 	Age 	Draft 	Tm 	Lg 	G 	GS 	Tgt 	Rec 	Yds 	Y/R 	TD 	Y/G 	Ctch%1 	Jordy Nelson 	2011 	26 	2-36 	GNB 	NFL 	16 	9 	96 	68 	1263 	18.57 	15 	78.9 	70.82 	James Jones 	2012 	28 	3-78 	GNB 	NFL 	16 	16 	98 	64 	784 	12.25 	14 	49.0 	65.33 	Jordy Nelson 	2014 	29 	2-36 	GNB 	NFL 	16 	16 	151 	98 	1519 	15.50 	13 	94.9 	64.94 	Randall Cobb 	2014 	24 	2-64 	GNB 	NFL 	16 	16 	127 	91 	1287 	14.14 	12 	80.4 	71.75 	Greg Jennings 	2010 	27 	2-52 	GNB 	NFL 	16 	16 	125 	76 	1265 	16.64 	12 	79.1 	60.8

Last year was the first time two WR's caught 10+ TD's.

 

[plastik]

Was just offered Michael Floyd for Adams.

From a FF 'expert' no less.

Adams way more valuable than Floyd now, wouldn't even think of doing that.

Me neither.

This guy habitually makes lowball offers, tagging them with: 'it's fair by FF industry standards.'

Lol. What a jagoff.

I'm in that league with you and I know EXACTLY who you're talking about without even looking to check his roster. Same guy offered me Antonio Gates and a late 3rd for my 1.10 during the rookie draft.

 

[cstu]

Adams has to be around WR20 now in dynasty, right? Obviously he takes a hit after this year if Nelson comes back 100% but I like him better than a lot of WR in the low 20's.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

"Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons." Wow, that makes it sound hard to break 1,200/10 with Rodgers at QB. He came close to a third time in 2013 with 1,300 yards but only 8 TDs.

In 2012 he was injured half the season.

His first three seasons, Greg Jennings was the man and Jordy didn't see much playing time (lack of opportunity won't be a problem for Adams this season).

Nice cherry pick. I'll ask you this: is he as good as Nelson? Better yet, is he as good as Nelson or Cobb going into year 2?If your answers aren't "yes" and "he's better than they were", asking for 1200 and 10 is way too much IMO.

 

[LittlePhatty]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

"Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons." Wow, that makes it sound hard to break 1,200/10 with Rodgers at QB. He came close to a third time in 2013 with 1,300 yards but only 8 TDs.

In 2012 he was injured half the season.

His first three seasons, Greg Jennings was the man and Jordy didn't see much playing time (lack of opportunity won't be a problem for Adams this season).

Nice cherry pick. I'll ask you this: is he as good as Nelson? Better yet, is he as good as Nelson or Cobb going into year 2?If your answers aren't "yes" and "he's better than they were", asking for 1200 and 10 is way too much IMO.

More cherries for ya:

Jordy's rookie year: 33/366/2

Davante's rookie year: 38/446/3

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

"Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons." Wow, that makes it sound hard to break 1,200/10 with Rodgers at QB. He came close to a third time in 2013 with 1,300 yards but only 8 TDs.

In 2012 he was injured half the season.

His first three seasons, Greg Jennings was the man and Jordy didn't see much playing time (lack of opportunity won't be a problem for Adams this season).

Nice cherry pick. I'll ask you this: is he as good as Nelson? Better yet, is he as good as Nelson or Cobb going into year 2?If your answers aren't "yes" and "he's better than they were", asking for 1200 and 10 is way too much IMO.

More cherries for ya:Jordy's rookie year: 33/366/2

Davante's rookie year: 38/446/3

And in year 2 for Nelson?

Doesn't change the fact Adams doesn't possess Nelson's size or ability.

Answers to those earlier questions?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

"Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons." Wow, that makes it sound hard to break 1,200/10 with Rodgers at QB. He came close to a third time in 2013 with 1,300 yards but only 8 TDs.

In 2012 he was injured half the season.

His first three seasons, Greg Jennings was the man and Jordy didn't see much playing time (lack of opportunity won't be a problem for Adams this season).

Nice cherry pick. I'll ask you this: is he as good as Nelson? Better yet, is he as good as Nelson or Cobb going into year 2?If your answers aren't "yes" and "he's better than they were", asking for 1200 and 10 is way too much IMO.

More cherries for ya:Jordy's rookie year: 33/366/2

Davante's rookie year: 38/446/3

And in year 2 for Nelson?Doesn't change the fact Adams doesn't possess Nelson's size or ability.

Answers to those earlier questions?

Jordy's year 2 was 22 catches, 320 yds, 2 TDs. In 13 games. He didn't break out until year 4.

 

[[icon]]

1050/8 IMO.

 

[Tau837]

If you take Aaron Rodger's 2014 passing stats and divide them exactly equally among 5 receivers, that's still almost 900 yards and 8 TDs per receiver.

I'm willing to bet that Adams gets at least a little more, and the newer receivers get a little less.

1,200 and 10 TDs seems easily obtainable for Green Bay's second WR, with room for even more upside if Adams proves he can truly fill the Jordy role.

1200 and 10 is easily obtainable? Jordy did it twice in 7 seasons. Cobb did it once in 4 seasons. Neither did it, or came close, in their second year. You are elevating him to Nelson and Cobb top-of-their-games status based on what? Opportunity?

But you aren't accounting for Jordy, Cobb, and Rodgers missing games.

Jordy first became a regular starter in 2011. From 2011-2014, he averaged 81 receiving yards and 0.72 TDs per game. Over 16 games, that projects to 1290 receiving yards and 11.5 TDs.

Cobb first became a regular starter in 2012. From 2012-2014, he averaged 72 receiving yards and 0.65 TDs per game. Over 16 games, that projects to 1156 receiving yards and 10.4 TDs.

And Rodgers missed multiple games over that span, so it could have been better.

If Rodgers and Adams stay healthy, 1200 and 10 is indeed easily within reach.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I'll present this like I did in the Patterson thread last year. People are WAY overrating him based on opportunity and how he looked against nickel corners, dime corners, safeties, and the occasional #2 corner. There is no way IMO he reaches 1200 yards. No way.

He's not fast. He's not big. He doesn't do anything particularly well except catch jump balls. If anything is within reach, it's the 10 TD. 1200? No way

 

[Stealthycat]

isn't that an exact description of Kelvin Bengamin ? not fast, jump baller, 55% catch % ...... but he has opportunity, right ?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

70/900/6.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

isn't that an exact description of Kelvin Bengamin ? not fast, jump baller, 55% catch % ...... but he has opportunity, right ?

Well no. Benji is a giant. Adams is not

 

[spider321]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

 

[mr roboto]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

Yep.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

Not really. Some are saying he's a WR1 (1200 and 10), and some are saying he's a WR3 (900 and 9). That makes a big difference in ADP and in dynasty value.

 

[spider321]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

Not really. Some are saying he's a WR1 (1200 and 10), and some are saying he's a WR3 (900 and 9). That makes a big difference in ADP and in dynasty value.

900 and 9 is a WR3 now?

 

[LittlePhatty]

You're all probably right, it's very unlikely he'll be elite. I'm not a Green Bay homer, just an optimistic dynasty owner.

If the Packers WR2 only gets 60/850/6 then you have to be seriously downgrading Rodgers this year too though. Which I can completely understand.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

Not really. Some are saying he's a WR1 (1200 and 10), and some are saying he's a WR3 (900 and 9). That makes a big difference in ADP and in dynasty value.

900 and 9 is a WR3 now?

Low 2/high3. But I think my projection is on optimistic end.

 

[Tau837]

Green Bay attempted 536 passes last year. Per PFF, the targets broke down as follows:

151 targets for Jordy

127 targets for Cobb

66 targets for Adams

16 targets for other WRs

90 targets for the RBs

80 targets for the TEs

In two years with Lacy, the Packers have attempted 570 and then 536 passes. With Jordy's injury and Lacy in his prime, it seems possible the passing attempts could be reduced. On the other hand, Rodgers is the best offensive player in the NFL, so I can't see much of a drop. I think 520 attempts is a floor.

So let's say the RBs bump to 100 targets.

And the TEs bump to 100 targets.

And Cobb jumps to 150 targets.

That still leaves another 170 targets to be distributed. Now consider the snaps breakdown from GB WRs last season:

980 Jordy

943 Cobb

756 Adams

227 Boykin

15 Janis

12 Dorsey

It seems very likely that Adams will get a lot more snaps and a lot more targets. IMO it is hard to see him with fewer than 120 targets.

Last year, Adams caught 38 of 66 targets (57.5%), averaged 11.7 ypr, and had 3 TDs on those 66 targets. Given he was a rookie, IMO it seems reasonable that his performance will improve.

IMO his floor (remember, assuming health for all players) is something like 120 targets, 72 receptions (60%), 900 receiving yards (12.5 ypr), 6 TDs.

Last year, Adams had 5 games in which he was targeted more than 4 times. In those games, he totaled 31/440/1 on 43 targets. That illustrates that he has a high ceiling in this offense.

Most of the people saying that the optimistic posters are going overboard are projecting him at his floor IMO. The truth probably lies somewhere between 72/900/6 and 1200/10. Maybe 80/1000/8.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

HE'S GONNA BE GOOD!!!

NO! HE'S GONNA BE REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU'RE WRONG! HE'S GONNA BE GOOD, NOT REALLY GOOD!!!

YOU KNOW NOTHING! HE IS GONNA BE REALLY, REALLY GOOD!!

Does that about sum up the last 20 posts or so?

Nice!

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9RmL1KMlXTE/UfNfh-Lwl9I/AAAAAAAACK0/dEsxDmBHq_I/s1600/someone+wrong+on+internet.png

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

72/900/6 is reasonabl, but not as a floor. 52/650/4 is a reasonable floor.

 

[Tau837]

72/900/6 is reasonabl, but not as a floor. 52/650/4 is a reasonable floor.

Adams had 38/446/3 last year as a rookie. Now he is more experienced, will have a significant role improvement, and has been the subject of positive reports throughout training camp and preseason, from well before Jordy went down.

My premise was that all players stay healthy. If that happens and Adams only has 52/650/4, where does the production go?

I guess we can agree to disagree on this.

 

[Faust]

Packers' Aaron Rodgers confident Davante Adams will step up:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13519495/aaron-rodgers-green-bay-packers-says-players-step-jordy-nelson-out

 

[Dr. Octopus]

My premise was that all players stay healthy. If that happens and Adams only has 52/650/4, where does the production go?

This is the biggest question for the Adams doubters, because the guy that started the "Don't Draft Aaron Rodgers" thread was mocked excessively?

If no one is expecting any huge drop-off from Aaron Rodgers (and I'm certainly not) who is making up for the loss of Nelson, if Adams is not getting a big slice of that production?

 

[Fantasysports1]

You have to spend up to get him. Either you go take him in the late 4th, early 5th or he probably won't be there. I am not targeting him over proven WRs but you have to consider him at a certain point in the WR 2 run.

 

[MattFancy]

You have to spend up to get him. Either you go take him in the late 4th, early 5th or he probably won't be there. I am not targeting him over proven WRs but you have to consider him at a certain point in the WR 2 run.

I'd gladly take him around the 4th/5th.

 

[LittlePhatty]

My premise was that all players stay healthy. If that happens and Adams only has 52/650/4, where does the production go?

This is the biggest question for the Adams doubters, because the guy that started the "Don't Draft Aaron Rodgers" thread was mocked excessively?

If no one is expecting any huge drop-off from Aaron Rodgers (and I'm certainly not) who is making up for the loss of Nelson, if Adams is not getting a big slice of that production?

I think a lot of people here are talking Adams down because their leagues haven't drafted yet.

It's entirely possible that Rodgers has a down year missing Jordy. But I don't think Adams is "just another guy", I think he can fill the Green Bay WR2 role very well and will get considerably more targets than the other receivers behind him on the depth chart.

 

[Jack White]

72/900/6 is reasonabl, but not as a floor. 52/650/4 is a reasonable floor.

3 grabs for 40 yards is a reasonable floor for the WR2 in Rodgers offense?

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

http://mobile.sportingnews.com/article/4653582-davante-adams-packers-fresno-state-jordy-nelson-acl-analysis-adp-fantasy-football-stock-watch

 

[ericttspikes]

I like Adams a lot. He isn't the same kind of receiver as Jordy or Cobb for that matter. He does remind me of Sterling Sharpe; big body, does dirty work over the middle, game fast, good hands, physical. I like his chances to be a great player in this offense.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I like Adams a lot. He isn't the same kind of receiver as Jordy or Cobb for that matter. He does remind me of Sterling Sharpe; big body, does dirty work over the middle, game fast, good hands, physical. I like his chances to be a great player in this offense.

I have yet to see him "do dirty work over the middle". He was strictly outside the hashes in year one and in college. Good jump ball guy though.

 

[ericttspikes]

I like Adams a lot. He isn't the same kind of receiver as Jordy or Cobb for that matter. He does remind me of Sterling Sharpe; big body, does dirty work over the middle, game fast, good hands, physical. I like his chances to be a great player in this offense.

I have yet to see him "do dirty work over the middle". He was strictly outside the hashes in year one and in college. Good jump ball guy though.

? He ran a ton of slants last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kGymW5Qcug

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Too many folks assuming can win against #1 and 2 corners at only a tiny discount to the cobb nelson level.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

At least in terms of floor. The floor assumes he is not ready to be a strong wr2.