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WR Deebo Samuel, WAS (2 Viewers)

hard. I'd personally move him if I owned him . Although someone mentioned him as a wr4. That would be nice and maybe I'd hold hoping for one more payout.
he’s my WR4 in a win-now lineup for me in a 16-teamer.

I don’t mind looking to trade him, but I’d wait for a couple of games - they’re going to use him a lot in WAS, and his value can only go up from here.

Selling now feels like it would be at his floor value.
 
I think he’s washed. Will have a couple monster games but will mostly be disappointing
Lot of Niner fans I know feel the same. I think he was disgruntled, and that the 2024 49ers weren’t a very effective offense.

Without CMC, playcalling became more vanilla, and Deebo’s runs were entirely predictable. Basically if he was in the backfield he got the ball & ran into a wall.

You might be right. I’m definitely not in agreement.
I’m fine agreeing to disagree. But he doesn’t run well enough to be a wide back anymore and he’s incapable of getting of getting any separation any longer (and it was never a strong suit). He’ll probably have some nice games against zones where he can get some steam and run over a small CB or two.
 
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I’m fine agreeing to disagree. But he doesn’t run well enough to be a wide back anymore and he’s incapable of getting of getting any separation any longer (and it was never a strong suit). He’ll probably have some nice games against zones where he can get some stream and run over a small CB or two.
I guess we’ll find out when we see how WAS deploys him and what the results are.
 
Or a league winner, like he was in 2021 and 2023.
Yep. I’ve had several league-mates try to buy low on him. Nope. I don’t have the depth to lose him.
What were their offers if you remember?

I sold shortly after he was moved to Washington on what I considered a lil hype bump in his value. I moved him and Evan Engram for 2027 2nd, 4th, and C. Tillman. For context I'm one year into a rebuild and still prioritizing future, so didn't want Deebo blowing up and carrying an extra WR1/2 season on my roster this year that I can't also depend on having there for 2026 and beyond. It's not bc I don't like Deebo. This league is also savvy so I probably could have gotten more in 2026 picks, but I already carry a few extras and am really not loving the early outlook of that class, esp. compared to 2027. Most of my leaguemates agree and are already valuing '27 picks at or above '26 picks.
 
What were their offers if you remember?
1. 2025 2nd &Mike Williams
2. 2026 2nd & 5th

Nope and nope.

I’d rather hang onto Deebo and see what I get out of him
Hmm.. yeah, and I'd imagine those are both mid 2nds at best. Don't see any bottom of the league teams wanting to take on Deebo.

As much as his RP profile the past two seasons has been pretty dreadful; I do think Washington was practically best case scenario for him and do think there's a great chance he's at least a WR3/flex but with the upside for quite a bit more. Especially with some of the faint McClurin trade rumors. If that trade happens it would make me regret not waiting another month to trade him for sure haha.
 
@NFLFrascella
Deebo Samuel… no comment… because I don’t wanna be mean
Out of shape and slow? It appears to be the perfect time for Scary Terry to ask for some cash.
Being slow is what jumped out at me there. Looks like he's huffing and puffing from the first step on.
At least he has 3 months to get in football shape. If he's serious about it (and he should be playing on a 1 year deal) he has time to shed 10-15 pounds.
 
He'll be fine. And yeah it's just a little slower speed drill. And he is also fat. Honestly don't know how much I like any of the Commander receivers at ADP. I might start targeting the rookie but when I say I don't know how much I like them I don't mean I'm down on them. McLaurin and Deebo are both two of my favorite WRs to watch and root for and I think the sky is the limit in 2025 for the offense but I just don't know how much I really want McLaurin in mid 3rd of redrafts/bb or Deebo later. I don't see Deebo commanding targets though I know he'll have his big games. I said 'commanding' hehe. I think Daniels and Robinson are the ones to own there maybe even Ekeler and Ertz if he still keeps the #1 role. Just hard to get a sense of this squad with Deebo there. Hard for me not to take a much longer look at the rookie or whoever else is presumably 3rd WR.
 
The problem isn't the weight per se. It's the combination of weight + age + injury risk. Age and weight combine to sap explosive athletic ability. Age and weight exacerbate injury concerns. Just seems like it could be "drops off a cliff" kinda moment for a guy.
 
The problem isn't the weight per se. It's the combination of weight + age + injury risk. Age and weight combine to sap explosive athletic ability. Age and weight exacerbate injury concerns. Just seems like it could be "drops off a cliff" kinda moment for a guy.

When you say "drops off a cliff", I think for Deebo it's more like a low ledge. Dude is living off his 2021 season.
 
I’m not seeing what y’all are seeing here.
@NFLFrascella
Deebo Samuel… no comment… because I don’t wanna be mean
Out of shape and slow? It appears to be the perfect time for Scary Terry to ask for some cash.
Being slow is what jumped out at me there. Looks like he's huffing and puffing from the first step on.
its June 11th. If there’s one player in the NFL I’m not concerned with physical shape it’s Deebo. Let’s see what he looks like in August.
 
He really does not look fat or heavy to me.....at all. That big caboose is just throwing people off.

Anyway to the he's old, beat down, toast crowd. Saw this the other day.

Yards per target in 5 games before getting hospitalized with pneumonia vs 9 games after: 10.5 to 6.8

Yards per route run run in 5 games before pneumonia vs 9 games after: 2.19 to 1.26
Man’s always had a big caboose. People seem to forget that Deebo is built like a linebacker, not like Davonte Smith. He’s a big thick dude.

This video is a lot of hullabaloo about nothing.
 
HSG is still driving the "caboose" in 2025. I respect your conviction!

If I remember correctly, EBF compared Deebo to Juju. That's a great career arc comparison. Elite one moment, and a massive fall off the cliff in the blink of an eye. Deebo was one of my favorite players when healthy and in his prime.
 
The problem isn't the weight per se. It's the combination of weight + age + injury risk. Age and weight combine to sap explosive athletic ability. Age and weight exacerbate injury concerns. Just seems like it could be "drops off a cliff" kinda moment for a guy.

When you say "drops off a cliff", I think for Deebo it's more like a low ledge. Dude is living off his 2021 season.
His 2021 sticks out like a very large, very sore thumb. Nevermind the fact that he had 60 carries and 8 rushing tds that season(good luck sniffing even half of those numbers with Daniels), even his next biggest season receiving he doesn’t even eclipse 900 yards. What are people expecting him to put up in Washington? Accounting for him likely missing a game or two, as well.
 
I think those of us that are hopeful for a bounce back year point to 3 main things. 1st, He was NOT healthy last year. He is now and just needs to get in game shape. 2nd, he's got the best and most accurate QB he's ever played with. 3rd, I believe Washington will utilize him better than the 49ers did (as they had a LOT of other weapons to utilize between CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle, Pearsall, and Juan Jennings) where I think Deebo will be much higher in the pecking order in Washington (unless Luke McCaffrey has a huge jump this year) so yeah, I'm hopeful he has a BIG bounce back season.
 
I think those of us that are hopeful for a bounce back year point to 3 main things. 1st, He was NOT healthy last year. He is now and just needs to get in game shape. 2nd, he's got the best and most accurate QB he's ever played with. 3rd, I believe Washington will utilize him better than the 49ers did (as they had a LOT of other weapons to utilize between CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle, Pearsall, and Juan Jennings) where I think Deebo will be much higher in the pecking order in Washington (unless Luke McCaffrey has a huge jump this year) so yeah, I'm hopeful he has a BIG bounce back season.
I know for fantasy there’s a massive chasm between Daniels and Purdy because of the rushing, but for real life I would beg to differ. Set the franchise record for franchise passing yards in 2023(4,280) and passer rating(113). He owns multiple NFL passer rating records. From a strictly passer perspective, I don’t believe Daniels is tiers above Purdy, and personally I’d say they’re even.

What would you project Deebo for this season? Receiving and rushing yards?
 
I agree you can't draw too many conclusions from those pictures. But the Niners had to attempt to manage his weight from the day they drafted him so it's not like this isn't a real concern.
 
The problem isn't the weight per se. It's the combination of weight + age + injury risk. Age and weight combine to sap explosive athletic ability. Age and weight exacerbate injury concerns. Just seems like it could be "drops off a cliff" kinda moment for a guy.

When you say "drops off a cliff", I think for Deebo it's more like a low ledge. Dude is living off his 2021 season.
His 2021 sticks out like a very large, very sore thumb. Nevermind the fact that he had 60 carries and 8 rushing tds that season(good luck sniffing even half of those numbers with Daniels), even his next biggest season receiving he doesn’t even eclipse 900 yards. What are people expecting him to put up in Washington? Accounting for him likely missing a game or two, as well.
His 2021 sticks out for his receiving yardage but in fantasy he was 11th and 22nd in PPG 2 of his other 3 seasons since. That third season being last year when he started off great and then as often discussed was not the same guy after pneumonia.

In terms of his carries and TD's not being half of that they were I'd say two things. In 2021, the year had the most carries, that was often in place of receiving and not in addition to and I found it to be a drain on his fantasy production instead of a help, at least in PPR.

After 2021 he's only averaged 2.8 carries a game for about 2.6 fantasy points a game as a rusher. It helps but I view more as a compliment to his game then then a major part or fantasy production(about 20%) and again I know it cost him receiving work in 2021, might have the other years as well and he's not going to go to zero as a runner.
 
The problem isn't the weight per se. It's the combination of weight + age + injury risk. Age and weight combine to sap explosive athletic ability. Age and weight exacerbate injury concerns. Just seems like it could be "drops off a cliff" kinda moment for a guy.

When you say "drops off a cliff", I think for Deebo it's more like a low ledge. Dude is living off his 2021 season.
His 2021 sticks out like a very large, very sore thumb. Nevermind the fact that he had 60 carries and 8 rushing tds that season(good luck sniffing even half of those numbers with Daniels), even his next biggest season receiving he doesn’t even eclipse 900 yards. What are people expecting him to put up in Washington? Accounting for him likely missing a game or two, as well.
His 2021 sticks out for his receiving yardage but in fantasy he was 11th and 22nd in PPG 2 of his other 3 seasons since. That third season being last year when he started off great and then as often discussed was not the same guy after pneumonia.

In terms of his carries and TD's not being half of that they were I'd say two things. In 2021, the year had the most carries, that was often in place of receiving and not in addition to and I found it to be a drain on his fantasy production instead of a help, at least in PPR.

After 2021 he's only averaged 2.8 carries a game for about 2.6 fantasy points a game as a rusher. It helps but I view more as a compliment to his game then then a major part or fantasy production(about 20%) and again I know it cost him receiving work in 2021, might have the other years as well and he's not going to go to zero as a runner.
But doesn’t that also beg the question of why a team would make him a lesser part of the passing offense intentionally in the first place? I guess that’s my main concern with Deebo, particularly at this stage of his career. He’s never been a great route runner or separator. I actually felt like SF as a whole did a great job of utilizing him as an all-purpose weapon by incorporating him so heavily in the rushing attack because I’m not sure they were ever confident just lining him up on the outside and asking him beat a corner in man coverage. How will Washington use him? He’s a guy I think you have to scheme things up for more so than other WR’s. At 29 years old and in a brand new scheme I guess I’m having a hard time seeing a renaissance happening, but I could be wrong.

I will concede watching him in that 2021 season was a thing of beauty as he routinely broke off 50+ yard plays to the house. It just feels like so, so long ago.
 
But doesn’t that also beg the question of why a team would make him a lesser part of the passing offense intentionally in the first place?
Because the Shanahan offensive scheme moved players around in the formation a ton to keep defenses off balance. With Deebo & CMC in the backfield or one in the backfield & the other in motion, it opened ip huge holes. And it was wildly successful when CMC & Deebo were both healthy.

I thought this was a widely/well-understood aspect of Deebo in the 49ers offense.

Besides the pneumonia last year, part of the reason Deebo struggled last year on the ground was because defenses weren’t concerned with Mason as a receiver, and the 49ers didn’t successfully confuse anyone - if Deebo was in the backfield it was a Deebo run, and the defenses keyed in on him.

They were predictable, and the results were poor.
 
But doesn’t that also beg the question of why a team would make him a lesser part of the passing offense intentionally in the first place?
Because the Shanahan offensive scheme moved players around in the formation a ton to keep defenses off balance. With Deebo & CMC in the backfield or one in the backfield & the other in motion, it opened ip huge holes. And it was wildly successful when CMC & Deebo were both healthy.

I thought this was a widely/well-understood aspect of Deebo in the 49ers offense.

Besides the pneumonia last year, part of the reason Deebo struggled last year on the ground was because defenses weren’t concerned with Mason as a receiver, and the 49ers didn’t successfully confuse anyone - if Deebo was in the backfield it was a Deebo run, and the defenses keyed in on him.

They were predictable, and the results were poor.
CMC wasn’t there in 2021 when Deebo had 60 rushing attempts. Also in 2023, with a healthy CMC, he was only averaging a little over 2 rushes per game.

That’s kinda what I was saying above. Some have expressed optimism for Deebo going into a new offense, but I’d argue he left the most optimal situation for him in the league already. He has severe limitations as a route runner and separator. SF masked that with their scheme-not sure another OC will be able to replicate that.
 
He’s talented for what he is, no doubt. I do think he has probably lost some juice, though. I expect he’ll have some spike weeks this season, but I think he’ll be very volatile. A WR3 for fantasy. That’s why I was asking what do folks realistically project for him this year.
 
But doesn’t that also beg the question of why a team would make him a lesser part of the passing offense intentionally in the first place?
No, they had injuries at RB in 2021 and needed what he offered as a receiver. The other years as I'm trying to point out it's not been a major part of his usage but targets in this offense has never been easy to obtain in high volume and I think they just wanted to find ways to get the ball in his hands past just receiving.

He’s never been a great route runner or separator. I actually felt like SF as a whole did a great job of utilizing him as an all-purpose weapon by incorporating him so heavily in the rushing attack because I’m not sure they were ever confident just lining him up on the outside and asking him beat a corner in man coverage.
I agree but you are talking about the weakest part of his game. He's never been good against man coverage but is against zone. I've only felt he needed help getting schemed against man, but a lot of WR's need that help.

At 29 years old and in a brand new scheme I guess I’m having a hard time seeing a renaissance happening, but I could be wrong.
I think central to where we may not align in our thinking is I don't view him as needing a renaissance. I just need the guy to not play like he did after the pneumonia sidelined him and led to weight and conditioning issues. That's really been the only time of his career since 2021 he did not live up to where his ADP is right now, which is around WR40, has generally blown that away in games played.

How will Washington use him?

Can't say I know for sure, will be interesting,but when I look at the Washington offense I don't see a whole lot of weapons in general of high caliber other then Terry(who I view as more of a WR2 in real life terms) and specifically not a lot of high caliber options working the short to middle part of the field. For as great as Daniels was last year it's more impressive when you look at the really subpar on the whole group of pass catchers he had so I think there is a big role for Deebo in store, they need him.

For me I'll just say I like that he's coming off a year where things went south for him and the hunger and motivation that brings to show he's not over the hill. Keep in mind unless we are getting lied to he's the one that asked for a trade. I don't think he was thrilled with his usage in SF and wanted a fresh start. He's got it, via a GM who knows him, they paid him nicely for the season and I think all in all he's highly motivated in a contract year(which is a bigger deal with him then most due to his struggle to keep the weight down). I'm not expecting 2021 but I like his price, and not trying for a hot take but I think in games played he's 50/50 to outscore Terry and his price is not even close to Terry's. Of course he'll carry a little more injury risk for missed games.

If he costs what he did since 2021 I'd never draft him and would be trying to cash out in the two dynasty teams I have him(where I have him as my WR4 and WR5). But I love his redraft cost and overall value right now, feel like I'm getting a guy with rock solid WR2 potenial who I'm drafting as a WR4.
 
where his ADP is right now, which is around WR40,
This is certainly a fair range. I didn’t realize his ADP was quite so low. Worth the plunge there.
I am in a startup best ball SF PPR dynasty league right now and got him in the 13th round and he was WR #58. That my friends is a STEAL IMO. And best ball is the perfect format for him, don't have to worry about weeks he goes off, he'll be in my lineup :drive:
 
But doesn’t that also beg the question of why a team would make him a lesser part of the passing offense intentionally in the first place?
Because the Shanahan offensive scheme moved players around in the formation a ton to keep defenses off balance. With Deebo & CMC in the backfield or one in the backfield & the other in motion, it opened ip huge holes. And it was wildly successful when CMC & Deebo were both healthy.

I thought this was a widely/well-understood aspect of Deebo in the 49ers offense.

Besides the pneumonia last year, part of the reason Deebo struggled last year on the ground was because defenses weren’t concerned with Mason as a receiver, and the 49ers didn’t successfully confuse anyone - if Deebo was in the backfield it was a Deebo run, and the defenses keyed in on him.

They were predictable, and the results were poor.
CMC wasn’t there in 2021 when Deebo had 60 rushing attempts. Also in 2023, with a healthy CMC, he was only averaging a little over 2 rushes per game.

That’s kinda what I was saying above. Some have expressed optimism for Deebo going into a new offense, but I’d argue he left the most optimal situation for him in the league already. He has severe limitations as a route runner and separator. SF masked that with their scheme-not sure another OC will be able to replicate that.
I thought the 49ers situation without a quality receiving back wasn’t ideal. That, combined with the OL being somewhat sub-par, (especially run-blocking) contributed to his poor season.

WAS desperately needed an underneath option & gadget guy - I think he’s a much better fit in that offense. And with a mobile QB, it’s going to be very difficult to key in on Deebo.
 
I'll always love Deebo. The guy is ferocious when healthy, but his play style was unlikely to lead to a long, productive career. I'm happy I hopped off the train last year. He's not someone I'd buy low on unless you're paying a late 2nd (superflex).
Love him in redraft though, as a WR4 in an ascendent offense.
IDK..seems like a fools errand. We will soon see. he's always hurt or limited.
When I owned Deebo I would always assume that he would be out a few games with a soft tissue injury. Idk about last year. He's got too much explosive upside to ignore him, and it's possible he'll be better served by being the wr2 than the main focus.

Buy in redraft and hold in dynasty until he blows up and you can sell before his three week hamstring.
 
I'll always love Deebo. The guy is ferocious when healthy, but his play style was unlikely to lead to a long, productive career. I'm happy I hopped off the train last year. He's not someone I'd buy low on unless you're paying a late 2nd (superflex).
Love him in redraft though, as a WR4 in an ascendent offense.
IDK..seems like a fools errand. We will soon see. he's always hurt or limited.
When I owned Deebo I would always assume that he would be out a few games with a soft tissue injury. Idk about last year. He's got too much explosive upside to ignore him, and it's possible he'll be better served by being the wr2 than the main focus.

Buy in redraft and hold in dynasty until he blows up and you can sell before his three week hamstring.
Buy in redraft @ the right price. Those owners in dynasty may have to wait the whole year to know wth he's worth. That vid did owners no favors for sure. Kittle mitigated some of that loss but not all.
 

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