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WR DeVante Parker, Retired (2 Viewers)

So is Parker a buy low? 
Yes, although I am not certain his owners will sell low, for despite being a disappointing year, the talent and upside still seems to be there - at least enough to justify selling him at a discount.

And I have gotten a couple of lowball offers for him in the last few days from the usual suspects in my leagues, which indicates that at least they think he is undervalued.

 
I vote no. He's still ranked pretty high in some dynasty rankings. I'd try to cash in on that ASAP if I owned him.
I'm inclined to agree. I don't like the outlook for him next year in Miami. Maybe his situation changes with Landry's contract up next year but I somehow doubt it.

 
Stills is UFA this year, Landry next.  How those two resolve will have a huge impact on Parker.  If they re-sign Stills that's pretty much a death knell as the ball will continue to be spread around too much.  Hopefully Stills gets a Marvin Jones/Sanu type offer somewhere and wants to go find a bigger role.

 
Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen expects DeVante Parker to have a "gigantic year."
Christensen added the team is "seeing what we were hoping to see" out of Parker, who is "healthy" and "hungry." The offseason is new, but the refrain remains the same. To be fair, Parker is clearly talented and had spurts of great play last season, but he has struggled both to stay healthy and to consistently perform when on the field. He will remain a risk-reward proposition in fantasy this season.

 
 
Source: Armando Salguero on Twitter 
May 6 - 12:17 PM

 
Ugh, I saw those tidbits on Joe's daily email. Miami's OC just gushing about all his players. Ajayi is going to catch way more balls, Julius Thomas is going to catch way more balls and DeVante Parker is going to catch way more balls. In fact, based on his tidbits, I am pretty certain the Dolphins will win the Super Bowl and Tannehill will be the MVP while throwing for 5000 yards.

 
DeVante Parker said he expects to have a "big season" in 2017.
This comes two weeks after OC Clyde Christensen said he's expecting a "gigantic year" out of Parker. Entering his third season, Parker has missed just three total games in two years, but hamstring and foot issues haven't allowed him to practice much at times, which then limited him in games. Parker has focused on leg work this offseason in hopes to get his muscles to cooperate for a full 16-game season. Parkers remains a high-risk, high-upside WR3.

 
Source: Miami Herald

 
"Multiple sources" told the Miami Herald that DeVante Parker "has been so impressive this offseason" that Dolphins coaches are now hopeful he can "finally develop" into a "dominant threat."
Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen has said the same publicly. Per the Herald's Armando Salguero, during the offseason program Parker has "come to understand that staying healthy is key to his success," which means "eating right," no longer skipping meals, and taking the team nutritionist's advice. Parker is also showing up on time after tardiness was a recurring early-career theme. In the past, Parker didn't always get enough sleep or work hard in practice. He is apparently doing those things now. If Parker has indeed matured, he has the god-given ability to take a third-year fantasy leap.

 
 
Source: Miami Herald 
May 22 - 1:21 PM

 
Ugh, I saw those tidbits on Joe's daily email. Miami's OC just gushing about all his players. Ajayi is going to catch way more balls, Julius Thomas is going to catch way more balls and DeVante Parker is going to catch way more balls. In fact, based on his tidbits, I am pretty certain the Dolphins will win the Super Bowl and Tannehill will be the MVP while throwing for 5000 yards.
I think you make a good point that everything is pretty positive as far as what coaches are going to say about players. Every team is undefeated right now and all of their players having the best offseason of their careers and all of that. 

At the same time the Dolphins ran the fewest number of offensive plays in 2016. The OC specifically points this out and states that they want to run more plays than this. He mentions adding 200 plays to their total last season as a goal. This would be a huge leap from 913 plays to 1113 plays. However he specifically states that due to up tempo, reducing penalties and turnovers being ways to add more plays. That is their goal. The offense wants to stay on the field longer. 

What the OC doesn't talk about is that if the defense can improve in some areas, that would give the offense more opportunities as well. 

In 2016 the Dolphins was 18th is points allowed and second worst in number of offensive plays allowed (1088) to SF who gave up 1102 plays. Miami gave up the 3rd most rushing yards in 2016. They allowed the 7th most 1st downs.

The Dolphins have added to their defense in free agency and the draft. If the defense could reduce points allowed and 1st downs allowed, that could lead to the team running more offensive plays.

If they only achieve half of their stated goal (adding 100 offensive plays) then the pie for all offensive players would be more. 1013 plays would still be below the average of 1023 in 2016. If things go well (or maybe because they don't) I can see Miami running 1040 to 1050 plays. I think there is some reason to expect some things to improve for players in their second season in the system as well. Gase was trying to do some thing early on in the season that got scuttled somewhat and the offense scaled down to help them win games. Then also with Tannehill injured and starting their back up, game plan modified a bit more. I would expect them to open up the offense again now that the players have more experience.in the system. It is up to Parker how big of a piece of this will be.

 
I'm not buying the off season puff. I wish I had waited to move him until now though. Believe what you hear from coaches this time of year at your own risk. Pay attention to the negative stuff though. Coaches are going to be optimistic right now unless they are calling out a guy for being out of shape or not working hard. 

 
Ugh, I saw those tidbits on Joe's daily email. Miami's OC just gushing about all his players. Ajayi is going to catch way more balls, Julius Thomas is going to catch way more balls and DeVante Parker is going to catch way more balls. In fact, based on his tidbits, I am pretty certain the Dolphins will win the Super Bowl and Tannehill will be the MVP while throwing for 5000 yards.
Exactly what I thought when I heard his comments a few weeks ago.  Coach speak definitely has to be taken with a grain of salt.  I'm sure their offense will improve, but they won't instantly have a team full of pro bowlers and fantasy studs

 
I'll take any glimmer of hope I can get. It certainly is possible that a light has finally gone on that he actually has to work hard year around to be successful.

This from the article: 

Parker has apparently come to understand that staying healthy is key to his success and that entails much more than simply stretching before workouts and cooling down afterward. Parker is eating right -- exactly what the team nutritionist has recommended. He’s not skipping meals.

He is apparently getting enough sleep. This is what coaches are thinking because when he tells people he’s going to be somewhere at a certain time of the morning, he’s been on time. That wasn’t always the case in the past.

Most importantly, Parker is going hard during his workouts.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article151925887.html

Seems so simple, but he was very young when he came out, and he is just 24 years old now. 

 
Dolphins OC Clyde Christensen expects DeVante Parker to have a "gigantic year."

Parker puff pieces have become a daily staple of the Dolphins' 2017 offseason program, but it's not just the media. Coaches will rarely gush as openly as the Dolphins have about their third-year receiver. For better or worse, they're significantly increasing Parker's expectations. Perhaps it's a motivational tactic. Parker is a WR3/4 with the upside for more.

Source: Miami Herald

 
I'll take any glimmer of hope I can get. It certainly is possible that a light has finally gone on that he actually has to work hard year around to be successful.

This from the article: 

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article151925887.html

Seems so simple, but he was very young when he came out, and he is just 24 years old now. 
What? He was 22 as a rookie which is pretty normal. Are you thinking of Cooper? They were in the same draft class and Cooper is over a year younger than Parker. Diggs is another guy in his class that is over a year younger.

 
I dont know..potential , capped by  Tannehill = underwhelmed.

I think many of the WRs in his ADP range will outperform him...

lots of Ifs with this guy.not worth the time or investment..

 
What? He was 22 as a rookie which is pretty normal. Are you thinking of Cooper? They were in the same draft class and Cooper is over a year younger than Parker. Diggs is another guy in his class that is over a year younger.
C'mon, don't be a Debbie Downer!  The regular season will be here soon enough to rain on this parade.  Let us Parker owners rejoice together and find any glimmer of hope while we bask in the offseason coachspeak!

Parker was a young 18 year old true freshman when he made a highlight-reel 39-yard touchdown reception in the season-opening win versus Murray State.

In all seriousness, it was not long ago that we looked upon a receiver's 3rd year as the year he was likely to breakout.  I still believe the best of DeVante Parker is yet to come.

Now, can we get a camp update praising Parker's offseason conditioning and predicting a 1,000- yard, 10-TD season?!

 
Davante Parker checks all the boxes on why he won't be on my team this year:

  • Overvalued due to draft pedigree
  • Unreliable Fantasy QB
  • Entrenched underrated WR1 ahead of him (fuels the hype, but ruins value see: Moncrief)  
  • Hamstring issues
 
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C'mon, don't be a Debbie Downer!  The regular season will be here soon enough to rain on this parade.  Let us Parker owners rejoice together and find any glimmer of hope while we bask in the offseason coachspeak!

Parker was a young 18 year old true freshman when he made a highlight-reel 39-yard touchdown reception in the season-opening win versus Murray State.

In all seriousness, it was not long ago that we looked upon a receiver's 3rd year as the year he was likely to breakout.  I still believe the best of DeVante Parker is yet to come.

Now, can we get a camp update praising Parker's offseason conditioning and predicting a 1,000- yard, 10-TD season?!
Haha, sorry. It's the offseason and I thought I'd chime in since there weren't many other threads I felt like popping in on...

It feels like it has been pretty long since the 3rd year breakout was thought to be a thing. But even then, that was largely based on the way NFL coaches handled rookie WRs. They were phased in slowly. The fantasy breakout year wasn't so much about talent and growth, but more that it wasn't until the 3rd year that a guy got his chance to be the top target. These days, even second round WRs are running with the 1s in minicamp. Parker has been a starter for two years. Injuries definitely held him back his first year, but getting outplayed by Kenny Stills in year 2 was all I needed to see. At that point, the odds got really long (to me anyway). I'm not saying it's impossible he turns it around, but we have to make decisions before all the data is in and using what I've got, I'd say there are a lot better bets out there.

 
C'mon, don't be a Debbie Downer!  The regular season will be here soon enough to rain on this parade.  Let us Parker owners rejoice together and find any glimmer of hope while we bask in the offseason coachspeak!

Parker was a young 18 year old true freshman when he made a highlight-reel 39-yard touchdown reception in the season-opening win versus Murray State.

In all seriousness, it was not long ago that we looked upon a receiver's 3rd year as the year he was likely to breakout.  I still believe the best of DeVante Parker is yet to come.

Now, can we get a camp update praising Parker's offseason conditioning and predicting a 1,000- yard, 10-TD season?!
This.  We have all gotten too impatient.  If you watch the Dolphins a lot, you have seen glimpses of this guy's talent and potential. I don't own a single share of him, but if I did I would not sell cheap. 

 
This.  We have all gotten too impatient.  If you watch the Dolphins a lot, you have seen glimpses of this guy's talent and potential. I don't own a single share of him, but if I did I would not sell cheap. 
The 3rd year breakout has been disproven many times. It's really all about opportunity. Some guys got it immediately (Moss) some guys didn't get to start until year 3 (Moulds). Parker has had his opportunity. He just hasn't done anything with it.

P.S. Yes, out of curiosity sake, I'm looking through old drafts at 1st round WRs and the only guys who waited until year 3 to break out were the guys who didn't get playing time until the 3rd year. Man, there were a LOT of 1st round WR busts back in the 90s. But really, there is no pattern. It seems if you have a good player and you let him play, he produces rather quickly. Teams were just shooting themselves in the foot by holding back guys like Moulds and I think teams figured that out which is why you see guys getting starts as rookies. But most commonly it seems 1st round WRs got their shot in year 2 and they produced well.

 
The 3rd year breakout has been disproven many times. It's really all about opportunity. Some guys got it immediately (Moss) some guys didn't get to start until year 3 (Moulds). Parker has had his opportunity. He just hasn't done anything with it.

P.S. Yes, out of curiosity sake, I'm looking through old drafts at 1st round WRs and the only guys who waited until year 3 to break out were the guys who didn't get playing time until the 3rd year. Man, there were a LOT of 1st round WR busts back in the 90s. But really, there is no pattern. It seems if you have a good player and you let him play, he produces rather quickly. Teams were just shooting themselves in the foot by holding back guys like Moulds and I think teams figured that out which is why you see guys getting starts as rookies. But most commonly it seems 1st round WRs got their shot in year 2 and they produced well.
Good info.  He didn't suck last year, he just didn't produce to expectations for a top 15 pick.  It was the team's first year in a new offense/new coaching staff though, so I am not even close to writing him off yet.  In fact, I am still holding out hope for Tannehill to have a Matt Ryan-like discovery of the talent within once he has some time to actually work in the same offense for a few years in a row.  I see the arrow pointing up for that entire offense personally.  Yes, I am a fan, but I have also always been very realistic about the team, which has consistently let me down for decades now.  I am bullish right now on Tannehill, Parker, Landry, and Ajayi.  Even Stills to a degree, especially in leagues that reward for long TDs.  I think Gase is the real deal...first legit coach we have had since Jimmy Johnson.

 
Good info.  He didn't suck last year, he just didn't produce to expectations for a top 15 pick.  It was the team's first year in a new offense/new coaching staff though, so I am not even close to writing him off yet.  In fact, I am still holding out hope for Tannehill to have a Matt Ryan-like discovery of the talent within once he has some time to actually work in the same offense for a few years in a row.  I see the arrow pointing up for that entire offense personally.  Yes, I am a fan, but I have also always been very realistic about the team, which has consistently let me down for decades now.  I am bullish right now on Tannehill, Parker, Landry, and Ajayi.  Even Stills to a degree, especially in leagues that reward for long TDs.  I think Gase is the real deal...first legit coach we have had since Jimmy Johnson.
I also see the offense improving in year 2 of Gase. I'm a big believer in Gase, though. The fact he brought Stills back at a pretty hefty rate AND traded for Julius Thomas (a former player of his) should temper expectations for Parker and Carroo. The only player I think that will actually prove to be a value play (relative to ADP/AAV) is Tannehill. Too many mouths to feed is bad for all players except the QB.

 
I also see the offense improving in year 2 of Gase. I'm a big believer in Gase, though. The fact he brought Stills back at a pretty hefty rate AND traded for Julius Thomas (a former player of his) should temper expectations for Parker and Carroo. The only player I think that will actually prove to be a value play (relative to ADP/AAV) is Tannehill. Too many mouths to feed is bad for all players except the QB.
More good points.  I think Stills has a pretty defined role as the speed/stretch the field guy, and he is good at that.  Thomas will steal some RZ work that would have gone to Parker, but also may help open him up at times if he re-establishes himself as a threat.  They wont all stay healthy in all likelihood.  The ones that do should benefit from good coaching, an improving QB, and solid talent around them. 

 
What? He was 22 as a rookie which is pretty normal. Are you thinking of Cooper? They were in the same draft class and Cooper is over a year younger than Parker. Diggs is another guy in his class that is over a year younger.
Ok, so he wasn't "very" young. Still, I think 24 is pretty young to write someone off that has shown as much talent and potential as Parker has. Time will tell. For me, he is still worth a hold in Dynasty. The potential ROI is likely far better than anything you can get for him now. As someone else said above...he didn't suck. He has just under-performed compared to our expectations. If he was a 3rd round draft pick people would probably be looking at him as someone ascending. 

 
Some guys need to learn how to be pros. From reading the Dolphins beat writers like Omar Kelly, it's clear that DeVante Parker is starting to "get it".  Adam Gase said he is practicing as if he were playing in games. Whether that translates to increased fantasy production is yet to be seen, but it's clear that he is showing than he had before. And from a pure talent perspective, he is the best receiver on the team.

My projection: 71 rec, 965 yards, 8 TD's. 

 
Some guys need to learn how to be pros. From reading the Dolphins beat writers like Omar Kelly, it's clear that DeVante Parker is starting to "get it".  Adam Gase said he is practicing as if he were playing in games. Whether that translates to increased fantasy production is yet to be seen, but it's clear that he is showing than he had before. And from a pure talent perspective, he is the best receiver on the team.

My projection: 71 rec, 965 yards, 8 TD's. 
All of this is big.  Both coaches and the writers are singing from the same song sheet on this.  It has been his biggest weakness in never being healthy enough to play at top speed.  Still, he caught more passes and gained more yards than Stills last year.  He needs to be more efficient in the red zone, several close chances for TDs. 

 
The 3rd year breakout has been disproven many times. It's really all about opportunity. Some guys got it immediately (Moss) some guys didn't get to start until year 3 (Moulds). Parker has had his opportunity. He just hasn't done anything with it.

P.S. Yes, out of curiosity sake, I'm looking through old drafts at 1st round WRs and the only guys who waited until year 3 to break out were the guys who didn't get playing time until the 3rd year. Man, there were a LOT of 1st round WR busts back in the 90s. But really, there is no pattern. It seems if you have a good player and you let him play, he produces rather quickly. Teams were just shooting themselves in the foot by holding back guys like Moulds and I think teams figured that out which is why you see guys getting starts as rookies. But most commonly it seems 1st round WRs got their shot in year 2 and they produced well.
Just a point on this, if you expanded into the 2nd round, Marquise Lee and Davante Adams are a couple recent examples of high picks who received playing time in the first couple years but didn't produce well until year 3. 

In general, it does seem like WRs are more ready to produce coming into the NFL recently. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the approach that they will sell guys if they don't produce in the first 2 years, but I am willing to wait on certain guys if they at least flash and show steady improvement in the first couple years. I think Parker has done exactly that.

 
Just a point on this, if you expanded into the 2nd round, Marquise Lee and Davante Adams are a couple recent examples of high picks who received playing time in the first couple years but didn't produce well until year 3. 

In general, it does seem like WRs are more ready to produce coming into the NFL recently. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the approach that they will sell guys if they don't produce in the first 2 years, but I am willing to wait on certain guys if they at least flash and show steady improvement in the first couple years. I think Parker has done exactly that.
That's how it works when "there is no pattern." However, Lee struggled with injuries and only started one game in his second year. His 3rd year wasn't even very impressive. And I'm going to need to see another year or two out of Adams before I believe in him (well, the real test will be when he's not catching passes from Rodgers). So far he hasn't done anything others before him haven't done just as well. Adams got 121 Rodgers targets and put up 997/12. Keep in mind Cobb, now an afterthought, once put up 1287/12 on 127 targets. James Jones once put up 784/14 on 108 targets and later 890/8 on 99 targets. So I need to see some productive 4th and 5th years out of these guys before they factor into the equation. 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying everybody is NFL ready as a rookie. I'm just saying that if a guy is thrust into a prime spot his first two years and fails to take the opportunity and run with it, the odds of long term success go way down - and we're playing a game of probability. Personally, I didn't like Parker as a prospect so it's easier for me to put him on my "let somebody else draft him" list or my dynasty "do no want" list, but those that own him should consider recouping some costs while beat writers are still writing offseason fluff pieces. 

I'd challenge the thought about his "flash" and steady improvement. Everybody is going to make a catch now and then - is that really a flash? And his career arc is currently behind where Michael Floyd was after 2 years. If you look hard enough you can probably see what you want to see, but if you take a step back you see an organization that could've rolled with him as their go to guy this year, but instead decided to piecemeal the equation by re-signing Stills (not cheap) to be the deep threat and trading for Julius Thomas to be the red zone threat. Both are roles that Parker's fans would've assumed he'd be dominating by his third year, but instead people are just hoping for an incremental improvement from year 2...

 
All of this is big.  Both coaches and the writers are singing from the same song sheet on this.  It has been his biggest weakness in never being healthy enough to play at top speed.  Still, he caught more passes and gained more yards than Stills last year.  He needs to be more efficient in the red zone, several close chances for TDs. 
For those of us who have been listening to the coaches pretty consistently, the narrative has been very consistent. 

Last year Gase was talking about Parker needing to practice at game speed, consistently, all the time. He also said that Parker needs to do a better job of taking care of his body, by eating properly and resting consistently, as part of what will enable him to practice at game speed all the time.

Now fast forward to this year they are talking about the same exact things and that Parker is doing those things now, when last year he was not.

 
It really is a nice offense and Gase did things with Cutler that no one else came close to. I still don't trust Ryan Tannehill. It's really my biggest concern with Miami and their players being any sort of consistent.

 
FF Ninja said:
That's how it works when "there is no pattern."
My mistake, I thought you were saying the pattern was guys who play early and don't produce usually aren't going to improve to fantasy worthy stats in their 3rd year.

FF Ninja said:
I'd challenge the thought about his "flash" and steady improvement. Everybody is going to make a catch now and then - is that really a flash? And his career arc is currently behind where Michael Floyd was after 2 years. If you look hard enough you can probably see what you want to see, but if you take a step back you see an organization that could've rolled with him as their go to guy this year, but instead decided to piecemeal the equation by re-signing Stills (not cheap) to be the deep threat and trading for Julius Thomas to be the red zone threat.




1
Well, "Flash" is subjective, so I won't argue with you about it, but I have watched basically every game of Parker and the Dolphins over the past few years. That certainly doesn't make me an expert on him, and I am sure I see things biasedly at times. But, watching dolphins games, I see Parker make one or two catches or a plays on the ball a game that, IMO, Landry, Rishard Mathews, Stills, etc. couldn't make. On the flip side, I rarely saw a play from Landry, Mathews, etc. that made me think "Parker could not have made that play". So, that is what I meant by flash. Obviously, he hasn't made those plays consistently enough to warrant his 1st round pick status thus far, but like Bia pointed out, the coaches and media's comments from the last offseason vs. this offseason are reasons for optimism if you think consistency has been the biggest problem for him.

regarding consistent improvement, 494 yards year 1, 744 yards year 2 seems like consistent improvement. I would be alright with an incremental improvement to around 1000 yards year 3 :shrug:

Also, the Still and Thomas points are overblown, IMO. Everyone posting in the Julius Thomas thread says he sucks, but you come in here and he is Orange Julius the TD king again. On Stills, speed sells right now. It is why Will Fuller was a 1st round pick and John Ross was a top 10 pick, and why the Saints guaranteed $6m this year to 31-year-old Ted Ginn when he can only run 1 route. What is essentially a 2 year $17m deal for 24 year old Stills seems like a bargain compared to those guys.

 
Kenny Stills is a good player. He isn't one dimensional like Ginn either, he is just very good at winning deep. He can win other ways as well though.

I have some reservations about Tannehill taking the next step to really unlock this offenses potential. In his first year with Gase his interception percentage increased to the highest rate it has been so far in his career (3.1%) His passing attempts were about 30 per game compared to 37 per game the previous 3 seasons. At the same time he had his highest completion percentage thus far (67.1%) and higher yards per attempt as well (7.7 compared to career average of 7.0) so some things got better, others got worse. The volume was reduced (less opportunity for receivers relative to years before Gase).

The main issue, volume could be something that changes due to up tempo offense as stated by the OC they have a goal to run 200 more offensive plays. The Dolphins ran the fewest number of plays in the NFL 2016. If they progress towards the mean that should add more passing attempts, perhaps some reduction of efficiency, such as completion percentage. RT has thrown for around 4000 yards in his 3 seasons prior to 2016, so I can easily see him getting back to that level. I think he has better weapons to work with than he did in 2014 for example. RT was on pace for 479 passing attempts last season. I could easily see this going up to 550 passing attempts in 2017.

I think the offensive line isn't quite there yet either although I do like the guard they drafted this year, they still need some upgrades there I think. That is something which could still hold the offense back.

As far as Parker so far, he did improve in areas such as cartch rate, targets and starts from year one to year two. It is still somewhat of a disappointment considering his potential, but he did improve and could (should) improve again going into his 3rd season.

 
My mistake, I thought you were saying the pattern was guys who play early and don't produce usually aren't going to improve to fantasy worthy stats in their 3rd year.

Well, "Flash" is subjective, so I won't argue with you about it, but I have watched basically every game of Parker and the Dolphins over the past few years. That certainly doesn't make me an expert on him, and I am sure I see things biasedly at times. But, watching dolphins games, I see Parker make one or two catches or a plays on the ball a game that, IMO, Landry, Rishard Mathews, Stills, etc. couldn't make. On the flip side, I rarely saw a play from Landry, Mathews, etc. that made me think "Parker could not have made that play". So, that is what I meant by flash. Obviously, he hasn't made those plays consistently enough to warrant his 1st round pick status thus far, but like Bia pointed out, the coaches and media's comments from the last offseason vs. this offseason are reasons for optimism if you think consistency has been the biggest problem for him.

regarding consistent improvement, 494 yards year 1, 744 yards year 2 seems like consistent improvement. I would be alright with an incremental improvement to around 1000 yards year 3 :shrug:

Also, the Still and Thomas points are overblown, IMO. Everyone posting in the Julius Thomas thread says he sucks, but you come in here and he is Orange Julius the TD king again. On Stills, speed sells right now. It is why Will Fuller was a 1st round pick and John Ross was a top 10 pick, and why the Saints guaranteed $6m this year to 31-year-old Ted Ginn when he can only run 1 route. What is essentially a 2 year $17m deal for 24 year old Stills seems like a bargain compared to those guys.
Nah, I didn't do that kind of full research. I was just putzing around pro football reference looking at 1st round WRs who succeeded (based on name recognition) and there was definitely no pattern to when their success started such as in the 3rd year. I wasn't looking at 1st round busts because there were a lot more of those than there were successes (ominous? ;) ). I did notice that most of the guys that were deemed 3rd year breakouts simply didn't get to start until their 3rd year and the guys who did succeed who started prior to their 3rd year did breakout earlier. So that's why I'm inferring that Parker's odds of success are lower than that of an average 1st round WR. He's had two chances and zero breakouts... not good.

As for Parker making plays that Landry can't, well, I'm not going to argue with you there. Landry profiles as one of the least athletic players in the NFL. Granted there is no correlation between the combine and WR success, but I'm still not expecting Landry to make any eye popping, athletic catches. You might not be giving Stills enough credit, but you watch them closer than I do.

I think we both know these performance curves are curves and not straight lines. He'll need more than an incremental improvement to reach 1000 yards. 

Stills was once a hot name due to his efficiency metrics in New Orleans. There was some curiosity over how tied to Brees that was, but I recall people thinking he could break out and then boom he got traded to the train wreck that was Miami. Keep in mind he's only 9 months older than Parker, so he could still be improving as well. They were neck and neck last year, IMO, so he could easily turn out to be the better player. Again, he was in New Orleans, but as a 5th rounder his first two years are actually substantially better than Parker's. Their target loads were eerily similar, 50 & 83 vs. 50 & 88, but Stills' totals were 133-95/1572/8 vs. Parker's 138-82/1238/7. But to be fair, Tannehill's avg comp % was 64.6% vs. Brees' 68.9%, so that somewhat explains their 71.4% vs. 59.4% catch rates during their first two years. 

And I'm not implying Julius Thomas is great. For this purpose it doesn't actually matter. All that matters is that Gase traded for him and he's going to use him. Whether he actually catches 50% of his red zone targets or 70% makes no difference for Parker unless Gase gives up on JT in less than a year. If Gase doesn't give up on him then he'll still be getting red zone targets that Parker owners were hoping Parker would get. Same thing with Stills. He'll be getting deep targets that Parker owners would've liked Parker to have gotten. Whether you are right or not about those guys' talent, the coach bringing them into (or back into) the fold says something about his perception of Parker as a player. At a minimum, Miami is hedging their bets. At worst, they have no faith in the previous regime's 1st round pick.

 
ESPN Dolphins reporter James Walker projected DeVante Parker to catch 70 passes for 980 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

All would be new career bests, and literally everyone around the Dolphins is expecting a big year out of Parker. The entire Dolphins' offense may be the most talked up of the offseason. One, or some, of these guys simply aren't going to live up to expectations. Walker projects Jarvis Landry at 90-1,110-5, with Kenny Stills taking the biggest hit to his 2016 stats. Parker has immense upside, but the hype is getting a bit out of control. He remains a WR3.

Source: ESPN.com

Jun 23 - 9:18 AM

 
It's hard to believe how much I vacillate on this guy.  One day I just gotta go get him, one day I can't wait to figure out how to get value out of an exit strategy.  I drafted him in all three leagues I was in at the time and if I didn't have confirmation bias I would probably love to hate this guy. 

Here's the thing - this is the type of player that everyone is just waiting to be right about.  He's the Christine Michael of WR's.  If he goes for 1200 yards this year it'll be like the second coming of ARob.  And I want to capitalize on that wave when it hits.  I am down to only having him in one league, and if I can get him at the right price I'll add him in more, but I haven't see anyone willing to exit yet.

 
Davante Parker checks all the boxes on why he won't be on my team this year:

  • Overvalued due to draft pedigree
  • Unreliable Fantasy QB
  • Entrenched underrated WR1 ahead of him (fuels the hype, but ruins value see: Moncrief)  
  • Hamstring issues
This makes a lot of sense. 

 
The Miami Herald reports DeVante Parker "(blew) up" the first day of Dolphins training camp.

"I think he was looking to not ease into camp," coach Adam Gase said afterward. "When I saw him (Wednesday) night, I could tell he was ready to get after it." Parker was an offseason puff piece fixture, perhaps setting a record. Both the Dolphins and media alike have been hyping his improvement since the first pad-less practice. According to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP, Parker is currently the No. 92 player off the board. Jul 27 - 1:51 PM

Source: Miami Herald

 
As a Dolphins fan....my best advice is let someone else own him this year.  If he blows up, so be it but he's been in the league long enough now where I'm skeptical of him being able to do it over the course of a season.  I know he's capable of good moments in stretches, but that won't help win your league.

I'm the same guy who tried to tell everyone on this board to stay away from another local product, Lamar Miller, last year, so do with this what you will.  I can already see from reading the boards and the fantasy news clips that DP is being overhyped to high hell.

 
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The Fantasy Football Calculator as cited by Rotoworld above lists Parkers ADP as 92 overall.

That is mid 7th round.

Is this really over-hyped or a price point that is unreasonable?

I think he offers value to outperform that ADP easily.

 
As a Dolphins fan....my best advice is let someone else own him this year.  If he blows up, so be it but he's been in the league long enough now where I'm skeptical of him being able to do it over the course of a season.  I know he's capable of good moments in stretches, but that won't help win your league.

I'm the same guy who tried to tell everyone on this board to stay away from another local product, Lamar Miller, last year, so do with this what you will.  I can already see from reading the boards and the fantasy news clips that DP is being overhyped to high hell.
He has been in the league 2 years.  He is 24 years old. 

I don't own him in a single league, but I too am a Fins fan.  I would personally be into buying him right now from anyone who feels this way.  I see it totally differently.  Here is what I see:

1st round talent/measurables

Has shown some big time flashes, despite playing for 2 different coaching staffs.  That fact is magnified when you are 22/23 years old.

All kinds of positive vibes about him this season

Landry has not been re-signed - to me this is a huge indicator of how the staff feels about Parker taking over.  Stills is not a 1.

Adam Gase looks like the real deal as both a HC and a bright offensive mind.  Its only year 2.

I am not looking to trade Mike Evans for him, but if I could get him from someone who feels that his 2 years of mediocre production while playing in 2 completely different offenses and battling nagging injuries to start his career are a positive indicator of his future value, then I will find a way to get him and be pretty psyched about it.  As an aside, I also like Tannehill as a buy-low for many of the same reasons with regard to the HC, and the offense.

 
He has been in the league 2 years.  He is 24 years old. 

I don't own him in a single league, but I too am a Fins fan.  I would personally be into buying him right now from anyone who feels this way.  I see it totally differently.  Here is what I see:

1st round talent/measurables

Has shown some big time flashes, despite playing for 2 different coaching staffs.  That fact is magnified when you are 22/23 years old.

All kinds of positive vibes about him this season

Landry has not been re-signed - to me this is a huge indicator of how the staff feels about Parker taking over.  Stills is not a 1.

Adam Gase looks like the real deal as both a HC and a bright offensive mind.  Its only year 2.

I am not looking to trade Mike Evans for him, but if I could get him from someone who feels that his 2 years of mediocre production while playing in 2 completely different offenses and battling nagging injuries to start his career are a positive indicator of his future value, then I will find a way to get him and be pretty psyched about it.  As an aside, I also like Tannehill as a buy-low for many of the same reasons with regard to the HC, and the offense.
Maybe, maybe not.  Point is I need to SEE it first.  Guy has been up and down since he got here.  As a fan I hope I'm wrong and he blows up but I wouldn't invest anything more than a 8th or 9th rounder for him in fantasy and with the way the hype is building he'll be long gone in my local drafts before that.  I won't be owning him in any leagues this year.

That's not even getting to the real underlying problem...which is that our QB is hot overrated garbage, but that's a topic for another conversation.  I see the converted WR spreading the ball around alot this year with no pure fantasy stud emerging from our skill position players.  Only player on the Phins I'd buy this year is Ajayi at the end of the first or top of the 2nd round.

 
Ace08 said:
Maybe, maybe not.  Point is I need to SEE it first.  Guy has been up and down since he got here.  As a fan I hope I'm wrong and he blows up but I wouldn't invest anything more than a 8th or 9th rounder for him in fantasy and with the way the hype is building he'll be long gone in my local drafts before that.  I won't be owning him in any leagues this year.

That's not even getting to the real underlying problem...which is that our QB is hot overrated garbage, but that's a topic for another conversation.  I see the converted WR spreading the ball around alot this year with no pure fantasy stud emerging from our skill position players.  Only player on the Phins I'd buy this year is Ajayi at the end of the first or top of the 2nd round.
Based on my projections I think Parker starts providing value around pick 60 overall.

I share your concerns about Tannehill. That is the main thing I can see holding Parker back at this point. He needs to see the field better and throw less interceptions. I am not sure if he can take that next step or not.

The offensive line is also a concern and could be a contributing factor to RT not playing good enough.

I do think Gase will open up the offense however and they will pass a lot more. The main question is if Tannehill is up to it or not. If there are a lot of interceptions still, then perhaps Gase needs to scale back the passing attempts again, and my projections will be too high if that happens.

 
Based on my projections I think Parker starts providing value around pick 60 overall.

I share your concerns about Tannehill. That is the main thing I can see holding Parker back at this point. He needs to see the field better and throw less interceptions. I am not sure if he can take that next step or not.

The offensive line is also a concern and could be a contributing factor to RT not playing good enough.

I do think Gase will open up the offense however and they will pass a lot more. The main question is if Tannehill is up to it or not. If there are a lot of interceptions still, then perhaps Gase needs to scale back the passing attempts again, and my projections will be too high if that happens.
I love Gase and I honestly feel bad for him.  He inherited Tannehill and got the job while being tasked to turn him into something he's not....a great QB.

Been watching football over 35.  I coached it for several years.  If I've learned anything about the QB position over that time is that there's one disease QB's share that typically cannot be cured....and that's "hold the ball too long" disease.  There is no none cure and Tannehill has a nasty case of it.  At times he plays so scared to throw interceptions that he won't throw into any window that isn't clearly uncontested.  That sounds great on paper but in the NFL all windows are contested and the ability to be a good QB is the knack for throwing accurately into those windows.  He takes more unnecessary sacks than any QB I've ever seen at any level.

The O-line is actually "ok" and if Pouncey completes his comeback it has the potential to be an above average line.  We have good skill position talent.....there are no excuses for Tannehill this year.

Again...I hope I'm wrong but in Tannehill I just see a guy who's upside is completely capped because he lacks the natural instincts to play the position.  He's got prototype size and all that....but he lacks the ability to make quick decisions under pressure, which is usually the kiss of death for a QB's upside.

 
I appreciate what you saying and for the most part I agree with you about Tannehill.

I guess we will see how much Gase can actualy coax out of him. I may be a bit more optimistic about that than you are, but I wasn't necessarily thinking it was going to be good football either. I think the Dolphins find themselves in some chase situations that forces the issue and more prolific passing game may not result in more wins.

Maybe I am wrong about that and Gase stays the course with slow tempo offense, because Tannehill cannot process things fast enough to get that to where he would like it to be.

 

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