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WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (2 Viewers)

If he didn’t weigh in and stated he is 170 it most likely means he is less than that. I can’t think of too many sub-170 receivers that dominated in the NFL. I will be avoiding and sure hope my Lion’s do the same. Great college receiver and certainly has enough skill to make plays at the next level, but I don’t trust that he will break what history has presented us in regards to someone that light playing that position. I thought Jeudy was thin and he has 25 or so pounds on him.

 
Per Pro Football Focus, Alabama WR DeVonta Smith's 6.65 yards per route versus man coverage was the best in the country in 2020. 

It's not just that Smith was the best versus man coverage. That much is hardly a surprise given his Heisman campaign. It's the margin at which Smith (6'1/175) leads that is fascinating. The next-best receiver in yards per route run versus man coverage was Florida's Kadarius Toney at just 3.64. Smith was almost twice as good as the next-best receiver in the nation against man coverage, which feels almost inconceivable. It's no wonder Smith is about to go top-15 in the NFL Draft. 

SOURCE: PFF College on Twitter

Feb 27, 2021, 1:32 PM ET


PFF Draft @PFF_College

Highest passer rating when targeted by season (FBS only)

2020 DeVonta Smith - 152.6
2019 DeVonta Smith - 152.5
2018 CeeDee Lamb - 145.2
2017 AJ Brown - 143.9

https://twitter.com/pff_college/status/1365784020919836673?s=21
These two posts by Faust are probably the best data you can have on Smith. Comparing him to Isaac Bruce and Marvin Harrison is the cherry on top.

 
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King of the Jungle said:
If he didn’t weigh in and stated he is 170 it most likely means he is less than that. I can’t think of too many sub-170 receivers that dominated in the NFL. I will be avoiding and sure hope my Lion’s do the same. Great college receiver and certainly has enough skill to make plays at the next level, but I don’t trust that he will break what history has presented us in regards to someone that light playing that position. I thought Jeudy was thin and he has 25 or so pounds on him.
I agree.  If he didn't actually weigh in there is no way he is 170. 

Such a tough evaluation.  If you bank on him being successful you are really expecting a legit trailblazer.  Never been done with that body type.  Jackson is the closest,  but Smith doesn't have Jackson's speed. 

On the other hand...if ever there was a chance for someone so small to break through it would probably be now.  The league has done what they can to take out the big hits to those WR. I just can't buy though.  College competition is just not the same. NFL guys have to go against physical corners play after play. I just don't see how his tiny frame will hold up. 

 
I am just learning this guy exists. He's the 1.01 in Dynasty. He's a professional football player. He is everything you want in a WR1.

 
Why small stature is not an issue for Alabama WR and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith's weight is a mystery no more.

Smith, the Heisman Trophy-winning Alabama receiver who could be in the mix for the Detroit Lions with the No. 7 pick in next month's 2021 NFL draft, said Monday he weighs the "same thing I’ve been weighing," 170 pounds.

Smith's thin frame and light weight are the biggest questions evaluators have about whether his college dominance will transition to the NFL.

He declined to weigh in at the Senior Bowl, but downplayed his size as an issue Monday.

“I feel like it’s not going to be no different than college," Smith said. "I mean, I played against some of the best in college. I played in the SEC. I feel like it’s the toughest conference there is, so I know a lot of people that’s bigger than me that have more problems than me so I’m not worried about it at all."

At 170 pounds, Smith stands to be the second-lightest receiver ever drafted in the first round, according to ESPN. The Baltimore Ravens took Marquise Brown, who weighed 166 pounds, with the 25th pick of the 2019 draft.

Brown has 104 catches for 1,353 yards the past two seasons, but was a less accomplished player than Smith coming out of college.

Smith had an electric 2020 season, when he helped Alabama win the national championship with 117 catches, 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. He also led the Tide with 1,200 yards receiving and had 14 touchdowns in 2019, when he played alongside two other first-round receivers, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, and a third (Jaylen Waddle) who is expected to be a top-15 pick this spring.

Other lightweight receivers who have had illustrious NFL careers include Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce, who were both listed in the 180-pound range during their playing careers.

NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said earlier this month the Lions could not go wrong taking any of the top three receivers in the draft, Smith, Waddle or LSU's Ja'Marr Chase.

"I think it’s kind of a flavor thing with Waddle and DeVonta Smith," Jeremiah said. "Waddle gives you a little bit more juice, but DeVonta Smith plays plenty fast as well. DeVonta Smith is a pristine route runner. He’s obviously, everybody knows, is real thin, but man he’s really long-armed, he can go up and get it as well."

Smith said he sees himself as both an inside and outside receiver in the NFL.

"I feel like I’m a receiver that can play anywhere, so really just putting me anywhere and just buying into whatever the team needs me to do," he said.

And he said he will not do anything but weigh in for teams at Alabama's pro day Tuesday. 

"I feel like there’s expectations with everybody that wins the Heisman," he said. "Everybody expects you to do this and that. I have my individual goals and things like that I expect myself to accomplish, so really just doing the things that I know I’m capable of doing, and just letting everything else just work out for itself."

 
DeVonta Smith's size won't impact his success in the NFL, says NFL Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah

The only flicker of uncertainty surrounding Alabama standout DeVonta Smith remains his size, and while it may have a minor say in where the wide receiver gets selected, NFL Network Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has no concerns that it will hinder him upon stepping up to the pros. 

The 6ft 1in Smith didn't participate in drills at Alabama's Pro Day on Tuesday, but did address a burning question as he revealed he currently weighs in at 170 pounds.

The Heisman Trophy winner looks set to become the second-lightest first-round receiver since 1999 behind the Baltimore Ravens' Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown, who came in at 166 pounds out of Oklahoma in 2019.

"I think it could impact a little bit of how high he goes," Jeremiah told media. "You have a certain checklist teams like to have if you're going to take a wideout in the top 10 just because there are always so many of them.

"For the fact he comes in a little underweight or what-have-you might have some impact on where he goes. I don't think it's going to have any impact on what he's going to do at the next level. I think he's going to be outstanding."

While he may lack the stature of others in his position class, Smith is an artist when it comes to route-running and pure playmaking ability, with the safe hands to make difficult catches in traffic and underrated speed to take the top off a defense.

Jeremiah's colleague Bucky Brooks has Smith going to Washington at 19th overall in his latest mock draft, while their fellow Draft analyst Lance Zierlein has him heading to the Detroit Lions with the No 7 pick. There are many who meanwhile consider him the lead receiver in the class ahead of LSU's Ja'Marr Chase and Alabama team-mate Jaylen Waddle.

The 22-year-old led the nation in 2020 with 117 catches for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns, averaging a second-most 142.8 receiving yards per game behind only Ole Miss' Elijah Moore, notably in five games fewer.

https://twitter.com/nflnetwork/status/1374438429258252295?s=21

"Every year I go back and you try and learn from mistakes and find trends and every year when you look at the production of these receivers as they come into the NFL, the pure route-runners are the guys that hit," continued Jeremiah.

"You get in trouble when you kind of get away from that and guys that aren't polished or savvy as a route-runner don't tend to have as much success, particularly immediately.

"I think he's ready. You look at Justin Jefferson and how he came into the league last year as such a polished player, I think DeVonta gives you a lot of those similarities.

"Because he doesn't really fit the mould in terms of the bulk he possesses, could he fall outside the top 10? Yeah sure, that wouldn't shock me. But I don't think it's going to have an impact on what type of player he's going to be."

 
It's VERY HARD to win the Heisman as a WR, lol.

This guy is 2 inches short of being the consensus 1.01. Don't be dumb, he's 3 inches taller than Antonio Brown and the exact same height as Amari Cooper.

 
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That he likely weighs less than 170 pounds.

And at 6'1" that's...scrawny.
Yeah, if he was 5'9", 170, that's a problem.

6'1", 170, I don't even know what you call that.  A guy that size will face CB that are 40 pounds heavier than him.  Think about what someone does on a basketball court to someone 40 pounds lighter.  

 
Yeah, if he was 5'9", 170, that's a problem.

6'1", 170, I don't even know what you call that.  A guy that size will face CB that are 40 pounds heavier than him.  Think about what someone does on a basketball court to someone 40 pounds lighter.  
Whiffs as the guy blows by him?

 
Yeah, if he was 5'9", 170, that's a problem.

6'1", 170, I don't even know what you call that.  A guy that size will face CB that are 40 pounds heavier than him.  Think about what someone does on a basketball court to someone 40 pounds lighter.  
Funny to me you invoke basketball because one of my comps for Smith is Iverson.

 
Funny to me you invoke basketball because one of my comps for Smith is Iverson.
That works better than Marvin Harrison.

Harrison was an inch shorter and 15 flipping pounds heavier, coming out of college.  The fact that we gotta go back to Marvin Harrison also tells you a ton.  We gotta go back 15 years to find a guy same size (they aren't)??

Alarming.  

 
Wow, size wise that's pretty great. Remember he had a very okay career. Dunno how this make me feel about Smith who I really really really want to love but am just so nervous about 170. 
The only thing that weight does for me, it makes the Smith/Chase argument brief.  

Otherwise, he's so good, I'm willing to take the chance as an outlier.  But where in the rookie draft?  

 
IHEARTFF said:
this is an excellent comp for Smith
Thanks! I don't mean it as a diss either. Richardson was phenomenal at Colorado as a senior. He had something like 48% of their receiving yards and half their receiving TDs. 

 
I am just learning this guy exists. He's the 1.01 in Dynasty. He's a professional football player. He is everything you want in a WR1.
If you're just learning this guy exists, trust those of us who have been watching him. GREAT talent. But the concerns are legit.

What is the concern? He broke the Alabama school record for touchdowns scored.
The dude's BMI is like 12.

Yeah, if he was 5'9", 170, that's a problem.

6'1", 170, I don't even know what you call that.  A guy that size will face CB that are 40 pounds heavier than him.  Think about what someone does on a basketball court to someone 40 pounds lighter.  
I like Smith, a lot. But I think you call a guy with these tangibles a return specialist.  It's way to easy to assume he'll be great when on the field but injuries are a concern when the guy tackling him weighs 50-100 lbs more

 
Yeah, if he was 5'9", 170, that's a problem.

6'1", 170, I don't even know what you call that.  A guy that size will face CB that are 40 pounds heavier than him.  Think about what someone does on a basketball court to someone 40 pounds lighter.  
They get beat off the dribble by the lighter quicker guy and probably pretty badly.

But I don't know what to do with him either. Is he a guy that will mean more to an NFL offense than to a fantasy team? Perhaps. Will he break the mold and be an exception to the rule? Perhaps. 

I think I can buy into the idea that he is elite enough athletically and skill wise to beat corners off the line or in route, even much bigger ones. But can he handle the punishment of the grind? That is why the size question matters so much. To me. Not that he can't play but can he last?

Enigma.

 
The League has adjusted the rules so that guys like this can thrive.

Smaller running backs exit the league quickly through attrition but it doesn't really seem to happen at the WR position. 

 
The League has adjusted the rules so that guys like this can thrive.

Smaller running backs exit the league quickly through attrition but it doesn't really seem to happen at the WR position. 
Defenders are getting smaller too which seems to play a role. RB is a lot more physical but I do think we will see a shift where smaller backs are able to become the lead backs where as of 5-10 years ago they were more complementary. 

 
I've never bought into the whole size/speed outlier thing. This whole outlier fallacy can apply any to metric you want it to and we've seen it in the past. A couple years ago remember the stuff about how no other wr ever did anything with a slower 3 cone than DJ Metcalf. I sort of bought that argument at the time because he fell to the end of 2nd round; where there's smoke there's fire kind of thing. To me it all depends on where Smith falls in the draft. A team using an early 1st is a much bigger investment than my rookie pick 1.04. If the NFL is willing to put up, I'm not even slightly concerned.

 
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I've never bought into the whole size/speed outlier thing. This whole outlier fallacy can apply any to metric you want it to and we've seen it in the past. A couple years ago remember the stuff about how no other wr ever did anything with a slower 3 cone than DJ Metcalf. I sort of bought that argument at the time because he fell to the end of 2nd round; where there's smoke there's fire kind of thing. To me it all depends on where Smith falls in the draft. A team using an early 1st is a much bigger investment than my rookie pick 1.04. If the NFL is willing to put up, I'm not even slightly concerned.
What outlier fallacy?

 
What outlier fallacy?
The fallacy that there's any significance for a player being an outlier in a metric like size, bmi, 40 time, or whatever (there's millions of them). All these metrics matter, but they are already incorporated into the value of draft capital. You can say, 'well, no wr has ever been any good with a bmi like Smith', but you are ignoring the fact no wr with a bmi like Smith has been selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Like I said in my first post, I will be concerned if/when he falls significantly in the draft.

 
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I've never bought into the whole size/speed outlier thing. This whole outlier fallacy can apply any to metric you want it to and we've seen it in the past. A couple years ago remember the stuff about how no other wr ever did anything with a slower 3 cone than DJ Metcalf. I sort of bought that argument at the time because he fell to the end of 2nd round; where there's smoke there's fire kind of thing. To me it all depends on where Smith falls in the draft. A team using an early 1st is a much bigger investment than my rookie pick 1.04. If the NFL is willing to put up, I'm not even slightly concerned.
I'm optimistic about Devonta and draft capital matters, but given recent history I'd be careful with this dismissive of an approach. There were reasons to be skeptical of Heyward-Bey, Tavon Austin, John Ross, among others for outlier purposes and we all know how they turned out. 

 
The fallacy that there's any significance for a player being an outlier in a metric like size, bmi, 40 time, or whatever (there's millions of them). All these metrics matter, but they are already incorporated into the value of draft capital. You can say, 'well, no wr has ever been any good with a bmi like Smith', but you are ignoring the fact no wr with a bmi like Smith has been selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Like I said in my first post, I will be concerned if/when he falls significantly in the draft.
Frankly, there hasn't been many WRs considered prospects at all with a BMI like that.  It's just that unusual.  You have to go back years and years to find more than two.  It's easier finding guys that are 6'4'', 225 lbs.  

Your position is there is no significance that no player has succeeded at that height/weight?  That seems to be what your first statement is saying.  And that draft position alone cancels that out?  

Draft position clearly matters.  And fantasy owners are factoring that in as well.  I have real concerns about Smith because of the metrics, but I'm not letting him fall out of the 1st round, because he's that good, because he might be an outlier, and because draft position.  If someone is dismissing Smith completely because of his weight, that's a mistake.  My position is probably more, 'Someone is going to take him before I am comfortable.'

But completely dismissing the size concern because 'draft position' doesn't seem logical, we have many examples of teams drafting outliers in the 1st round, and it not working.  

 
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My position is probably more, 'Someone is going to take him before I am comfortable.'
I think this is probably where I will end up. My prelim board has him clearly behind Chase and Pitts and somewhere on the messy tier comprised of Waddle, Bateman, Marshall, and the 3 RB's. I also don't pick earlier than 7th and don't have intentions on moving up. If he were to fall I'd think about it, but I suspect he goes somewhere in the top 6.

 
Frankly, there hasn't been many WRs considered prospects at all with a BMI like that.  It's just that unusual.  You have to go back years and years to find more than two.  It's easier finding guys that are 6'4'', 225 lbs.  

Your position is there is no significance that no player has succeeded at that height/weight?  That seems to be what your first statement is saying.  And that draft position alone cancels that out?  

Draft position clearly matters.  And fantasy owners are factoring that in as well.  I have real concerns about Smith because of the metrics, but I'm not letting him fall out of the 1st round, because he's that good, because he might be an outlier, and because draft position.  If someone is dismissing Smith completely because of his weight, that's a mistake.  My position is probably more, 'Someone is going to take him before I am comfortable.'

But completely dismissing the size concern because 'draft position' doesn't seem logical, we have many examples of teams drafting outliers in the 1st round, and it not working.
How many different metrics are you considering for outlier status? Because everybody is an outlier in some form or another. What you're doing here, essentially choosing a measurement you seem to notice a person has an extreme value compared to their peers and then placing more emphasis on it than normal. 

I'm not saying bmi doesn't matter, but a wide receiver is not just this number. How fast is he? How much separation does he get? How many Heisman's has he won? Don't place more emphasis on one of these numbers just because there is an extreme value.

 
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I'm optimistic about Devonta and draft capital matters, but given recent history I'd be careful with this dismissive of an approach. There were reasons to be skeptical of Heyward-Bey, Tavon Austin, John Ross, among others for outlier purposes and we all know how they turned out. 
Two can play this game: Russell Wilson was too short, DK Metcalf's 3 cone drill was too slow, Christian McCaffrey was white.

 
I'm optimistic about Devonta and draft capital matters, but given recent history I'd be careful with this dismissive of an approach. There were reasons to be skeptical of Heyward-Bey, Tavon Austin, John Ross, among others for outlier purposes and we all know how they turned out. 
None of those guys produced like Smith did, though.

 
How many different metrics are you considering for outlier status? Because everybody is an outlier in some form or another. What you're doing here, essentially choosing a measurement you seem to notice a person has an extreme value compared to their peers and then placing more emphasis on it than normal. 
That's not remotely what's happening. I seem to notice?  

I'm not pulling this weight thing out of thin air.  This isn't my concept.  There's a reason people look at arm length for OT, and 3 cone for EDGE, and breakout age for WR and on and on.  You only need to look at the fantasy rankings in your league.  Go 30 deep.  There's no one lighter than 185.  And those guys are 3 inches shorter than Devonta.  

If and when Devonta succeeds, he WILL be an outlier.  He becomes a top 12 fantasy WR, he'd be the first, since we all started playing this game.  It's more than fair to bring this up.  

I'm not saying bmi doesn't matter, but a wide receiver is not just this number. 
Is this the problem? Are you under the impression that someone believes this is the be-all and end-all of Devonta Smith evaluation?

 

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