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WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (2 Viewers)

cloppbeast said:
Seems his weight is intentional on his part.
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Some guys cannot put on weight no matter how hard they try. Don't forget, their bodies are still not fully mature at 22. Not that they're still growing in height, but everything is still firing rapidly at that age, including most likely one's metabolic rate, or whatever science they're attributing weight and weight gain to these days.

Ask my sad, fossilized ### about twenty-two and the springtime of one's life. :cry:

 
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he's going to look mean in a Giants uniform starting next week.no way they let him slip past them at #11.

new rumors and rumblings from Pete Schrager have NE jumping up to nab Smith before the Gmen pick.

why would Smith's size suddenly become an issue when the players he's facing on a daily/weekly basis in college are/were exactly the same size as the NFL counterparts?? DBs in college weight what DB's in the NFL do. at least the ones playing for the top NCAA programs - like Fla, Auburn, Ga., i'e., the SEC.  Sewell is the same weight as 99.9% of the NFLs offensive linemen. I dont ever recall Marvin Harrison getting the snot knocked out of him that guy dodged/weaved ,flat-out ran out of bounds more than any player in NFL history. By far. that guy ran to the sidelines faster than his shadow could follow. I don't think it's hard to avoid contact.

let's not overthink this, Smith is going to be electric, a multi-Pro Bowl participant

 
ffmail4me said:
Steve Smith weighed 184 at the combine. Tyreek Hill weighted 185. I'm trying to think of a receiver anywhere remotely close to his weight that made an impact in the league...anyone? Gary Clark from Washington is the closest I can think of, he weighed 175 and was 5-9...
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Will DeVonta Smith slide after true height, weight unveiled?

Excerpt:

Smith had an exceptional season in 2020 with Alabama, catching 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns en route to the Heisman. Completely insane numbers, often just running away from defenders. The question, of course, is whether Smith can do that at the next level, where defenders are much better at keeping contact and bumping smaller wide receivers off their routes.

NBC Sports Philadelphia's Reuben Frank examined the size question earlier this week:

"Really, the only question about DeVonta Smith is whether he’s too small. At 6-1, 170 pounds, it’s fair to ask.

"No wide receiver that size has ever been drafted in the first half of the first round.

"Mel Kiper, who has called Smith one of the five-best players in the draft, also acknowledged that the Alabama star “could drop a bit” because of his size."

To be fair, we have seen some receivers at this size have success in the league. Eagles fans in particular will remember a skinny dude named DeSean Jackson, who stood 5-9 3/4 and weighed 169 pounds at the 2008 NFL Draft Combine, doing just fine in the pros.

But Jackson is clearly an exception to the rule rather than a blueprint, and you probably don't want to make a habit of picking undersized players.
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or you could listen to pat mcafee and realize he's 99% right... he'll near always be in motion, thus "untouchable"

 
Tanner9919 said:
he's going to look mean in a Giants uniform starting next week.no way they let him slip past them at #11.

new rumors and rumblings from Pete Schrager have NE jumping up to nab Smith before the Gmen pick.

why would Smith's size suddenly become an issue when the players he's facing on a daily/weekly basis in college are/were exactly the same size as the NFL counterparts?? DBs in college weight what DB's in the NFL do. at least the ones playing for the top NCAA programs - like Fla, Auburn, Ga., i'e., the SEC.  Sewell is the same weight as 99.9% of the NFLs offensive linemen. I dont ever recall Marvin Harrison getting the snot knocked out of him that guy dodged/weaved ,flat-out ran out of bounds more than any player in NFL history. By far. that guy ran to the sidelines faster than his shadow could follow. I don't think it's hard to avoid contact.

let's not overthink this, Smith is going to be electric, a multi-Pro Bowl participant
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Why would ne trade up for smith with no qb on the roster

 
I suspect Smith's will succeed in the NFL - provided he can go to a team with a QB that can throw him open and let him run with the ball.  If he goes somewhere he has to make contested catches, or the QB leads him into getting hit in the middle of the field?  Dunno...

Kind of why I don't want the Eagles to draft him (at least not if they can take Horn or Waddle)..  You put Smith on a team with an accurate QB tho, he should do very well.

 
cloppbeast said:
Seems his weight is intentional on his part. After four years at Alabama he put on basically no muscle mass. But the guy is not lazy, right? It appears to me he works hard at his craft. So why did he not build muscle in his time at a major college program?

It's been mentioned on this thread how unprecedented is Smith's proportions. A sizeable majority of receivers, I'd argue nearly all, have deformed their bodies to play wide receiver. My theory is Smith disagrees with the conventional wisdom on this. 
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From what I learned during his time at Bama your theory is correct. He embraced his body and decided to win with it rather than transform into something he's not. There is absolutely nothing lazy about this guy. What he is now was done with a purpose.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Isn't that one of Kevin Durant's many nicknames?
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He rejected the nickname.
 

Kevin Durant Addresses His Internet-Born Nickname 'Slim Reaper'

Excerpts:

Kevin Durant's nicknames of "KD" and "Durantula" have left a lot to be desired for some NBA fans, so redditor Ebonicz94 came up with the nickname of "The Slim Reaper," which many on the Internet felt was an improvement.
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While there are a lot of fans of this nickname, Durant is not one of them:

UPDATE: Wednesday, Jan. 29 at 2:45 p.m. ET

Durant provided more detail as to why he doesn't like the nickname
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Dr. Octopus said:
I think he was talking about if they put Smith in motion it will be far tougher for a CB to jam him on the line - not that he'll never get touched.
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Smith is so good at releasing off the line of scrimmage and getting open.  Best in the class and his biggest attribute IMO. That plays no matter how skinny you are.  I still rank him 3rd in the WRs, but that is not to take away from Smith in any way.  Just because he prefers to play at that weight and doesn't want to transform his body, doesn't mean he won't have durability issues at the next level.  However, I'm starting to think if anyone can do it, it is Smith.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I think he was talking about if they put Smith in motion it will be far tougher for a CB to jam him on the line - not that he'll never get touched.
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That sort of feeds into where I am coming from on Smith.  

He's a top 6 fantasy pick, probably?  You're looking for a WR1, and that's a guy that's a target hog.  That's a guy that can line up on the outside, in 2WR sets, and beat his guy. Not  guy that needs to be in motion all the time.  This isn't the CFL, at some point, actually at many points, he's going to bang into CBs.  Along the sideline, off the line.  

I am incredulous at the idea that some team will just keep him in motion most of the time, so his weight has suddenly ceased to be a problem.  

I think he could be an NFL hit, but maybe a bit of a fantasy disappointment. I am willing to believe he's an outlier, but when he hits, it's not as a WR1, but maybe a nice WR2.  

 
massraider said:
That sort of feeds into where I am coming from on Smith.  

He's a top 6 fantasy pick, probably?  You're looking for a WR1, and that's a guy that's a target hog.  That's a guy that can line up on the outside, in 2WR sets, and beat his guy. Not  guy that needs to be in motion all the time.  This isn't the CFL, at some point, actually at many points, he's going to bang into CBs.  Along the sideline, off the line.  

I am incredulous at the idea that some team will just keep him in motion most of the time, so his weight has suddenly ceased to be a problem.  

I think he could be an NFL hit, but maybe a bit of a fantasy disappointment. I am willing to believe he's an outlier, but when he hits, it's not as a WR1, but maybe a nice WR2.  
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I don't think he needs to be in motion all the time - I was just clarifying what was being said by Soulfly. 

 
massraider said:
I think he could be an NFL hit, but maybe a bit of a fantasy disappointment. I am willing to believe he's an outlier, but when he hits, it's not as a WR1, but maybe a nice WR2.  
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I wouldn't be so quick to say that.  If he can get open "at will", and I think he can, I see no reason why he can't be a WR1.  Like I said, his ability at the LOS to get open is elite.  He doesn't need to be motion to accomplish that.

 
For FFB drafting purposes, it's really doesn't have to be this hard.

It's really just a matter of where you draft him, IOW who should get drafted before him? 

I'm an advocate of the guy - but I still wouldn't take him ahead of Chase, Harris, or Etienne for sure. And I most likely wouldn't take him over Williams, Pitts, or Waddle. 

So really I'm saying there's a red (1-3), yellow (4-6), and green (7+) zone for picking him. Considering what you could get from him IF he hits, there's no reason to not consider him at picks 4-6.

And if he's there at pick 7, you really should select him.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
For FFB drafting purposes, it's really doesn't have to be this hard.

It's really just a matter of where you draft him, IOW who should get drafted before him? 

I'm an advocate of the guy - but I still wouldn't take him ahead of Chase, Harris, or Etienne for sure. And I most likely wouldn't take him over Williams, Pitts, or Waddle. 

So really I'm saying there's a red (1-3), yellow (4-6), and green (7+) zone for picking him. Considering what you could get from him IF he hits, there's no reason to not consider him at picks 4-6.

And if he's there at pick 7, you really should select him.
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Pre-draft I'm leaning him over Williams, but I like the way you put this.

 
MAC_32 said:
From what I learned during his time at Bama your theory is correct. He embraced his body and decided to win with it rather than transform into something he's not. There is absolutely nothing lazy about this guy. What he is now was done with a purpose.
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Well I respect the guy for using his brain and thinking for himself. I happen think he's on to something. I can't understand how putting 40 lbs of muscle will help a receiver get open and catch a football.

He's already managed one hurdle in this experiment. It will be interesting to watch how the next one goes.

 
cloppbeast said:
Well I respect the guy for using his brain and thinking for himself. I happen think he's on to something. I can't understand how putting 40 lbs of muscle will help a receiver get open and catch a football.

He's already managed one hurdle in this experiment. It will be interesting to watch how the next one goes.
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It will be fun to watch him turn sideways and disappear from view.  We can nickname him Flat Stanley.

 
I agree with the take that he has already shown his ability to compete with NFL sized corners. And largely against guys that will be, or already are, actual NFL corners. 

I really don't know what to do with him. The size is the *only* red flag and it is a big one. The green flags are incredible though. He destroys press coverage. Not "he does surprisingly well for his size", but he destroys it. Or so say the metrics I have seen. He has done it from lining up outside. 

 
Don't forget age (23 at season's start), breakout age (21), and senior status as red flags.

Too many flags. There are other guys behind him I'd rather draft in conventional rankings unless he seriously falls and I can jump into the very late first round to grab him. Which I probably wouldn't feel impelled to do. I know the narrative of "too small" has gotten pushback and gained traction in the past few weeks, but I'm where I was at a few weeks ago, still wondering about all those flags for such a high pick.

It's not for me to wonder so much yet. I'm not in a position to take him if he falls. Right now, his mock ADP is behind my picks and I'm certainly not reaching for him. That's my two cents.

 
Jim Nagy @JimNagy_SB

While working for Chiefs nine years ago, our college director posed this question about Russell Wilson in final draft meetings, “What don’t we like about this guy besides his height?”. Guessing same question being posed in draft rooms right now about Devonta Smith’s weight. 🤔
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https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1385191388443205636?s=21
 

Jim Nagy @JimNagy_SB

Yeah, the room was crickets to the Wilson question, as I’m sure it is with the Smith question.
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https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1385194316105228288?s=21

 
Faust said:
https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1385191388443205636?s=21
 

https://twitter.com/jimnagy_sb/status/1385194316105228288?s=21
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Pushback snark looming larger. Wonder what he'll tweet out to fantasy supporters if he's carted off the field after a big hit or is injured in the course of a normal NFL tackle. He's forgetting people played at Wilson's height before. He's also not mentioning that nobody that has had Smith's BMI has gone in the first. I mean, it's not even close.

 
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Yeah it's not just about "who has succeeded at his size?" It can also be asked "who has failed at this size?" How big is the list of *anyone* that size even getting drafted? It has been asked and answered upthread and for me it is rhetorical but still.

I really think that context is necessary with *many* of the players coming out of programs like Ohio St and Alabama as it relates to playing time rotations and how that impacts breakout age and such. I also agree the senior status is a red flag. But I think I have to agree with the take in this link, that it may not matter much for Smith. I'm *still* likely fading him regardless but this is a very interesting dive into the senior WR flag. The author is a strong advocate of avoiding WRs who stayed 4 years and yet he wrote this article.

https://www.rotoviz.com/2021/04/devonta-smith-the-importance-of-declaring-early-and-the-reasons-it-sometimes-doesnt-matter/

"As a true junior, DeVonta Smith was the best WR on an Alabama team that included four first rounders. He had few question marks following his third year in which he outproduced three other (likely) top-15 reality picks. His senior year was excellent, but it was also unnecessary. Although he did give his resume a massive boost with a Heisman trophy, he didn’t need to. So why did Smith choose to stay? We won’t know for sure, but in this case, we can almost certainly rule out the reasons that are most troublesome.

I always prefer receivers who broke out early and declared early. But that doesn’t mean we can’t consider the possibility of exceptions. Smith may be the exact type of player for whom declaring early (or not) doesn’t really matter that much."

 
So, just throw out everything one is normally faithful to assuage those that don't like statistical determinism? Look, I get it. I don't like Dostoevsky's 2+2=4 postulation, either (that's Dostoevsky first before Orwell, and it's about the irrational vs. statistical certainty vis a vis humanity and dignity -- it's fairly abstract so I won't go into it here) but there's a degree of foolishness in tossing out some of the biggest measurement screens we have for players. Why this time, specifically? He even looks average in highlights. Not great speed. And way underweight. Everyone is a worthy exception until they fall victim to the stats and measures that catch up with them. It's a very relentless thing, the likelihood of the inevitability of the statistical outlier to come back to earth. Draft at your own peril, in my opinion. 

I find that even the analytics guys are making exceptions to their own stats. There was a long 23 minute segment on DLF about BMI outliers and barack's point specifically about draft capital and BMI. They essentially argued, "if pro teams don't mind, why should you?" but we've seen how well first-round outliers have done. If they don't check certain boxes, they likely fail. That's it. I'm personally not spending a first-round pick on a guy that seems, by all accounts, destined to fail in fantasy at the next level. Saddens me that he's underweight, but I have no problem writing it off and taking my lumps if he pans out.

 
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rockaction said:
I find that even the analytics guys are making exceptions to their own stats. There was a long 23 minute segment on DLF about BMI outliers and barack's point specifically about draft capital and BMI. They essentially argued, "if pro teams don't mind, why should you?" but we've seen how well first-round outliers have done.
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The issue with that of course, is that on draft day, we will only know ONE pro team that doesn't mind.  It's not like the NFL collectively decided he was worth the risk, and they voted the Eagles to take him.  

It's also a weak argument.  Every time you draft, you are making a call on a NFL team's decision.  

When I pass on AJ Dillon or Jordan Love, it's because I think the Packers effed up.  Every owner does that during a draft.  

 
DeVonta Smith is 170 pounds: Do you see Marvin Harrison? How does Jaylen Waddle hold up with the top of the receiving corps?

WR Coach No. 1: DeVonta has unbelievable hand-eye coordination and body control with elite ball skills. It’s so natural. He’s instinctual as ####. He feels it and he knows where the spots are. He’s gonna be a good player and be solid and will play every position. He studies; he loves it. I am concerned about him only being 170 pounds, though. It’s the world we live in, man. Big guys beat up little guys. When you take a shot from the side from these monsters, that’s when you get AC issues and collarbone issues. He’s tough as ####. He will bite your face off. He’s gonna try. He won’t back down, but is he gonna win the battle? 

Waddle is a game-changer. He’s way rawer than DeVonta. He’s absolutely explosive and elite with the ball in his hands. 

WR Coach No. 4: DeVonta’s faster than you think and he’s quicker than you think and he can really catch. With smaller guys you worry about how they’ll adjust to guys getting pushed off their spot and can they make a tough grab. If they do, then it lightens your concern about their size. He’s learned a lot of concepts because they’ve taught him a lot. He’s the best route runner in the draft. Sark had those guys running pro stuff. 

Waddle has similar burst to Tyreek Hill. He has that same type of explosion and movement. 

WR Coach No. 3: I love Smith, but he is so skinny — if you can get past the skinny, he’s a legit No. 1 receiver. This kid … whatever he wants to do, he does. They had him jump in at cornerback and they said he knew the defense as good as anybody on the team. 

I think Waddle is a faster version of Peter Warrick. He is so dynamic with the ball in his hands and is such a dangerous returner. I think he could be Devin Hester as a return guy. But he’s a better receiver than Hester. He was awesome in his interview. He really has an infectious personality.

WR Coach No. 2: Waddle is different now. He’s like Tyreek Hill in a lot of ways. He’s so fast — he’s different fast. Henry Ruggs is really fast, but he was more of a straight-line guy. I think (Waddle) could play really any spot; he can play X, Z, slot, in the backfield.”

 
foxco said:
You really think so? When I watch him I think absolute master technician. 

No idea if he'll translate at the NFL level with his weight concerns but watching him in college was a joy.
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I'm talking about explosiveness, especially after the catch. I can't tell you about beating press coverage with a release or knowing WR concepts. I probably wouldn't know that in an all-22 film room, so I'm not going to pretend to know it from highlights. That's why I leave that work to the experts and why I have to partially defer to consensus about where a player should go. I'm not writing so much to denigrate Smith as I am asking the people who use numbers-based analytics and screens and flags why, all of the sudden -- it seems year after year -- they abandon the data they pump so hard?

Of course there are outliers. That's why they're called "outliers." Just say that. They should say, "Yes, I think Smith is an outlier given all the data we have because some things that you need in the profession aren't quantifiable." That would put it all in the open, that there are limits to everything, from what data can ascertain at the macro level to what the eye can see and comprehend on a micro level. That's my main beef with Smith and the rotisserie world that talks about him. Those swings are sort of annoying. Get a narrative, and stick with it. It seems to me that calling him a potential outlier is the most honest way to go about it. 

 
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rockaction said:
Of course there are outliers. That's why they're called "outliers." Just say that. Say, yes, I think Smith is an outlier given all the data we have because some things that you need in the profession aren't quantifiable. That would put it all in the open, that there are limits to everything, from what data can ascertain at the macro level to what the eye can see and comprehend on a micro level. 
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Makes sense. For me, I'd say I think he'll be an outlier and overcome the weight shortcoming, but that's just a semi-educated guess. I'd take him 1.05-1.07 and feel pretty good about it.

 
Pro Football Network's Tony Pauline relayed that Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier could be hesitant to draft Alabama WR Devonta Smith due to size concerns.

"Somebody said to me, someone close to the organization, they said when push comes to shove, they don’t know if [Dolphins GM] Chris Grier is going to draft a receiver that’s under 170 pounds," Pauline explained on the latest episode of the 'Draft Insiders' podcast. Alabama could only cloud the picture on Smith's size -- they had him listed at 175 pounds in 2020 -- for so long before the actual measurement came out, which it did when the Heisman winner had his medical checks earlier this month. The Dolphins sit at the No. 6 pick after swinging a pair of equity trades this spring. Best-case scenario: First four picks spent on quarterbacks, with the Bengals then drafting Oregon T Penei Sewell in the No. 5 slot. Perhaps the stickiest scenario would come if Atlanta drafted Kyle Pitts at No. 4 and Cincinnati drafted Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5 (or vice versa). That would take the two biggest skill-position cogs off the board before Miami has a chance to run their card to the front.

SOURCE: Pro Football Network

Apr 22, 2021, 1:31 PM ET
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rockaction said:
Pushback snark looming larger. Wonder what he'll tweet out to fantasy supporters if he's carted off the field after a big hit or is injured in the course of a normal NFL tackle. He's forgetting people played at Wilson's height before. He's also not mentioning that nobody that has had Smith's BMI has gone in the first. I mean, it's not even close.
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Smith could weigh 190 or 200 if he wanted. He chooses to play at 170, just going off what @MAC_32 said. All other wide receivers ever have put on significant muscle. This is why such bmi hasnt happened before in the NFL. 

 
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rockaction said:
I'm not writing so much to denigrate Smith as I am asking the people who use numbers-based analytics and screens and flags why, all of the sudden -- it seems year after year -- they abandon the data they pump so hard?
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I think those that make decisions solely based on what data models tell them are wrong. There is value in quantifiable data, but each element is just one piece of information. All relevant information matters, whether quantifiable or not. 

 
cloppbeast said:
Smith could weigh 190 or 200 if he wanted. He chooses to play at 170, just going off what @MAC_32 said. All other wide receivers ever have put on significant muscle. This is why such bmi hasnt happened before in the NFL. 
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Could he though? How do you know that? Some people (especially at his age) struggle to add mass. Don't you think he and Alabama tried to add some muscle mass? 

Dr. Octopus said:
Does getting speared in the ribs or taking a shot to the head really feel better at 190 pounds v. 170 pounds?
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Yes, it does IMO. It is a very big difference. The mass helps absorb contact and protein bones, organs, etc. Also it changes the physics of how the force in a collision is distributed. Would you rather get hit by a 190 pound man or a 170 pound man? 

 
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