What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (2 Viewers)

Ilov80s said:
Could he though? How do you know that? Some people (especially at his age) struggle to add mass. Don't you think he and Alabama tried to add some muscle mass? 
Click to expand...


MAC_32 said:
From what I learned during his time at Bama your theory is correct. He embraced his body and decided to win with it rather than transform into something he's not. There is absolutely nothing lazy about this guy. What he is now was done with a purpose.
Click to expand...

 
MAC_32 said:
He said it in multiple interviews throughout college. I'm sure someone with better internet skills than I can find some samples.
Click to expand...
Ok, well of course he is going to say that. He is selling himself right now. He wouldn't ever say, "yes I would be better if I was stronger but I've tried and haven't been able to add muscle mass". 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Serious answer: It depends. I’d rather get punched by Donald Trump than Manny Pacquioa despite the size difference. 
 
Click to expand...
Well I assume in the NFL we are all talking about top end athletes. Also I don't think the weight is just injury risk but also ability to box out, shield defenders for better position, absorbing contact to stay on his feet, etc. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Well I assume in the NFL we are all talking about top end athletes. Also I don't think the weight is just injury risk but also ability to box out, shield defenders for better position, absorbing contact to stay on his feet, etc. 
Click to expand...
I agree with what you’re saying - it’s physics. I just don’t think WRs get hit hard that often or that it will matter much the few times he does.

He has risk, obviously, but I’m willing to gamble on him depending on where in the draft I am.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I agree with what you’re saying - it’s physics. I just don’t think WRs get hit hard that often or that it will matter much the few times he does.

He has risk, obviously, but I’m willing to gamble on him depending on where in the draft I am.
Click to expand...
Yes, I am not saying he is a sure bust or I would never draft him. Not at all, I just have him a bit lower for NFL and fantasy than his consensus. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
An outlier is a data point you remove from your training data set because it might scew the model. For example, if you're wanting to find the average income in America you might remove Bill Gates and Donald Trump types in your calculation.

Only in fantasy football 'analytics' do people use being an outlier as part of their prediction model. This is some nonsense you will never learn in school. In fact, your professor would tell you Smith falls out of the scope of your model, therefore you cannot make an accurate prediction.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s said:
Ok, well of course he is going to say that. He is selling himself right now. He wouldn't ever say, "yes I would be better if I was stronger but I've tried and haven't been able to add muscle mass". 
Click to expand...
I dont recall specifically when he gave them, but they were not 'right now.' This was (probably) during 2019 and 2020. 

 
rockaction said:
It's a very relentless thing, the likelihood of the inevitability of the statistical outlier to come back to earth. Draft at your own peril, in my opinion. 

I find that even the analytics guys are making exceptions to their own stats. There was a long 23 minute segment on DLF about BMI outliers and barack's point specifically about draft capital and BMI. They essentially argued, "if pro teams don't mind, why should you?" but we've seen how well first-round outliers have done. If they don't check certain boxes, they likely fail. That's it. I'm personally not spending a first-round pick on a guy that seems, by all accounts, destined to fail in fantasy at the next level. Saddens me that he's underweight, but I have no problem writing it off and taking my lumps if he pans out.
Click to expand...
Yeah I pretty much agree. I'm not sure if I was even making an argument about draft capital and BMI, for what it's worth. I mentioned something about E Moore has a higher BMI than Bateman and I've brought it up in regard to RB before. I have zero inclination whatsoever that it has anything to do with WRs or not. His size is an outlier among outliers and I have heard zero people try to refute that. My comments and that article were mostly directed at the concept of breakout age and early declare status. Anyway I'm not fighting this one I'm fading him. If he blows up he blows up. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Yes, it does IMO. It is a very big difference. The mass helps absorb contact and protein bones, organs, etc. Also it changes the physics of how the force in a collision is distributed. Would you rather get hit by a 190 pound man or a 170 pound man? 
Click to expand...
So if he had a fatter fingers he might have avoided his most serious injury in 4 years of SEC play?

 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah I pretty much agree. I'm not sure if I was even making an argument about draft capital and BMI, for what it's worth. I mentioned something about E Moore has a higher BMI than Bateman and I've brought it up in regard to RB before. I have zero inclination whatsoever that it has anything to do with WRs or not. His size is an outlier among outliers and I have heard zero people try to refute that. My comments and that article were mostly directed at the concept of breakout age and early declare status. Anyway I'm not fighting this one I'm fading him. If he blows up he blows up. 
Click to expand...
Yeah, I wasn't criticizing your take and I appreciate the information and link. Makes it tougher to fade, but that's where I stand right now. I was more commenting on guys who preach to everyone and then make exceptions. I understand in one sense, but it makes it difficult to follow them in the future.

 
I'm all for the discussion that he's too good, and the lack of weight won't hinder him.  It's like Lockett or Smitty being so good height didn't matter, or Russell Wilson for that matter.  

You start talking about how bigger and stronger really doesn't matter in the NFL, and you've lost me.  

 
menobrown said:
So if he had a fatter fingers he might have avoided his most serious injury in 4 years of SEC play?
Click to expand...
That's a really simplistic view

1. I never said he is going to get hurt because is 170 or that being 190 would make him less injury prone. It's a basic scientific fact that more weight is going to allow one to absorb contact better. We know bigger guys get hurt all the time, it was only mentioned in regards to the ability to handle contact. 

2. There are lots of different reasons we could consider for why he was never hurt at Alabama. Maybe he's really tough and can take hits like a beast. Maybe he got lucky since we know injuries are often random. Maybe he was so smart and quick players never got good hits on him. Probably a little bit of all that. 

3. How does that age though? Will he be quick enough to avoid hits in the NFL? What happens after a few years of NFL play, will he still be as tough? What about as he ages, how does his body hold up?  Impossible questions to answer, but this isn't as simple as "he's never been hurt before" so the weight doesn't matter. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ilov80s said:
That's a really simplistic view

1. I never said he is going to get hurt because is 170 or that being 190 would make him less injury prone. It's a basic scientific fact that more weight is going to allow one to absorb contact better. We know bigger guys get hurt all the time, it's a mention of ability to handle contact. 

2. There are lots of different reasons we could consider for why he was never hurt at Alabama. Maybe he's really tough and can take hits like a beast. Maybe he got lucky since we know injuries are often random. Maybe he was so smart and quick players never got good hits on him. Probably a little bit of all that. 

3. How does that age though? Will he be quick enough to avoid hits in the NFL? What happens after a few years of NFL play, will he still be as tough? What about his he ages, how does his body hold up?  Impossible questions to answer, but this isn't as simple as "he's never been hurt before" so the weight doesn't matter. 
Click to expand...
It was said half jokingly but intended to be simple to cut through the fog of over analysis which is gripping people right now.

I just truly don't put any weight at all on his size leading to injuries. There are so many types of injuries and I'd argue some are more prone if you are bigger. I just see nothing here evidentiary to think this is a thing based on studies or Devonta himself.

His leanness as it relates to performance is something else however and that's a much bigger concern to me. That's were I'm going back to essentially different era's to fantasy "success" stories that merit were Devonta will be picked. That does give me some concern for sure, but not for his injury rating.

 
ESPN's Todd McShay compared Alabama WR Devonta Smith to former Indianapolis Colts WR Marvin Harrison.

"I really like this comp because of their savvy route running. Alabama's Smith knows how to get off press coverage, he's smooth in and out of his breaks, and he can find the soft spots in coverage," McShay writes. There is.also the obvious size comparison, here, as Harrison topped out at 185 pounds in the NFL. Smith, meanwhile, will enter the pros at 166 pounds. McShay is all-in on Smith's game IQ and intelligence, noting that he might as well be a second quarterback pre-snap, just because he is so skilled at reading coverages and assessing situations. For as good as Smith was in college and might be in the NFL, this is obviously a very, very lofty comparison from McShay. 

SOURCE: ESPN.com

Apr 23, 2021, 12:15 PM ET
Click to expand...

 
Nothing really to add here... Very curious to see where he goes... Very excited to see how he does in the NFL... I just wish he had some freakish jumping ability to go with his awesome play, so the nickname would be the Slim Leaper.

 
Booger McFarland Reacts To DeVonta Smith’s Reported Weight

In the wake of the report that Alabama star wide receiver DeVonta Smith weighs just 166 pounds, many people are wondering whether his smaller frame will translate to the NFL. But ESPN’s Booger McFarland has a different perspective.

On Thursday’s edition of Get Up, the ESPN NFL analyst said that there’s nothing to indicate Smith will struggle at the next level. HE also pointed out that DeVonta Smith never struggled in practice despite going up against NFL-sized cornerbacks.

“Here’s the thing I’ll say Greeny: Size is not a skill, it’s just a feature,” McFarland said. “If you go back and watch this young man play in the SEC… better yet, just watch him in practice against (top CB prospect) Patrick Surtain… I don’t hear anything about DeVonta Smith not being able to get off the line in practice.”

McFarland closed his argument stating that the weight issue argument is overblown. He also joked that players can heavier with age anyway.

DeVonta Smith is coming off one of the greatest seasons for a wide receiver in college football history. He had 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in 13 games for the Crimson Tide.

But despite his prolific season and the Heisman and national title honors, he isn’t considered by most as the top wide receiver in this draft. That honor goes to LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, who didn’t play in 2020.

Maybe the size has something to do with it. Or maybe people just believe that Chase has more traits that the majority of teams want.

Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see if and how DeVonta Smith might fall in the 2021 NFL Draft next week.
Click to expand...

 
knwo what I really notice about Smith that is a HUGE deal in the NFL...?

How often he gets BOTH feet down on sideline catches.

 
cloppbeast said:
Smith could weigh 190 or 200 if he wanted. He chooses to play at 170, just going off what @MAC_32 said. All other wide receivers ever have put on significant muscle. This is why such bmi hasnt happened before in the NFL. 
Click to expand...
I respectfully disagree with you. Smith has an ecto/meso-morphic bodytype. Meaning he is naturally lean and quite muscular for his lean size. He can't simply take a bunch of protein shakes or drink wine and eat Cheez-Its (like I do) and add 20 lbs like a typical endomorphic white European-lineage genetic type. The book The Sports Gene, describes this in detail. 

 
Rich Eisen @richeisen

Steve Smith started his Hall of Fame trajectory from 177-pounds. What does he think of all the question marks surrounding the @HeismanTrophy winner @DeVontaSmith_6?
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/richeisen/status/1387506410745995264?s=21

Rich Eisen Show @RichEisenShow

It's very possible @SteveSmithFDN gave us the perfect fantasy team name when breaking down @DeVontaSmith_6 size and how that might affect his #NFLDraft  slot:

#NFL #RollTide 
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/richeisenshow/status/1387104501916606464?s=21

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anyone worried that Devonta Smith might be the next Dede Westbrook? Amazing college production and great route runners, but thin frames/injury proclivity and lack of truly game-breaking athletic ability holds them back from being truly productive NFL receivers. 

 
dewaser said:
Anyone worried that Devonta Smith might be the next Dede Westbrook? Amazing college production and great route runners, but thin frames/injury proclivity and lack of truly game-breaking athletic ability holds them back from being truly productive NFL receivers. 
Click to expand...
4th Round pick to the Jags? Quite a reach in my humble opinion and I do think Smith is a little overhyped but Dede is a far stretch, not sure why you make that analogy or comparison. 

Factor in the Bama WRs who seem to do pretty well in the NFL, seems like way more positives for Smith than trying to needle or pick apart based on Dede Westbrook. The Jags didn't get burned in the 4th, did you grab him early in dynasty or own him for too long on your roster? Seems like a personal analogy but maybe others see it your way. 👍 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
4th Round pick to the Jags? Quite a reach in my humble opinion and I do think Smith is a little overhyped but Dede is a far stretch, not sure why you make that analogy or comparison. 

Factor in the Bama WRs who seem to do pretty well in the NFL, seems like way more positives for Smith than trying to needle or pick apart based on Dede Westbrook. The Jags didn't get burned in the 4th, did you grab him early in dynasty or own him for too long on your roster? Seems like a personal analogy but maybe others see it your way. 👍 
Click to expand...
It's just a comparison that popped in my head based on their body types/college production. I was trying to think of players in the NFL that match Smith's body comp and Westbrook came to mind. The fact that they had tremendous college production in their senior years is another parallel.

Granted, you're completely right that Westbrook was a 4th rounder to the Jags. I expect Smith to be taken no later than the mid to late first. And yes, there have been some great Alabama receivers (Jones, Ridley, Cooper), but I don't know if we can attribute their success to Alabama. Bama is going to churn out quality players at all positions based on the nature of their recruiting. Ask yourself this: if Smith lands in a similarly bad situation, would you feel comfortable taking him early in a rookie draft? 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

JohnnyU
WR Tory Horton, SEA
2
Replies
67
Views
5K
sushinsky4tsar
S
B
Arthur Smith money daydream thread
Replies
15
Views
598
Bri
B
JohnnyU
WR Jaylin Lane, Washington Commanders
Replies
13
Views
1K
Harjiran
Harjiran

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Back
Top