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WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (1 Viewer)

Garrett Wilson is undervalued this season. Most sites have him WR17 to WR19. I think there are 3 main reasons for his ranking:

1) Low TD totals
2) Justin Fields as his QB
3) He was WR22 from weeks 7-18 last year, was WR25 in 2023, and WR21 in 2022

3 reasons I like him this year:
1) Davante Adams left for LAR. He has averaged 9.5 targets per game in his 40 games without Davante, and that dropped to 7.9 with him from weeks 7-18. Conklin also left, freeing up even more targets. Wilson is going to be in the top 3 in targets this year.
2) The Jets suck. And sucky teams have to pass. And when your WR2 is Allen Lazard, your WR1 is a god!
3) He was WR9 last year, but is being discounted because his stats dropped when Davante came to town. He was WR7 through the first 6 games.
 
I'm the opposite of the thinking on Wilson apparently. He put up great numbers with fricken Mike White at QB, image how he could do with just a low end starter throwing him the ball.

I think Fields locks onto him and Wilson finally breaks into the elites
That feels like revisionist history. Wilson had one bomb game (8-162-0 on 15 targets) in White's first start against a bottom three Minnesota defense. It was a mixed bag of mostly nothing in White's other three starts. Zero TDs during that span.

Fields>>>...<<<...???>\<][✓=÷????White???
 
I'm the opposite of the thinking on Wilson apparently. He put up great numbers with fricken Mike White at QB, image how he could do with just a low end starter throwing him the ball.

I think Fields locks onto him and Wilson finally breaks into the elites
That feels like revisionist history. Wilson had one bomb game (8-162-0 on 15 targets) in White's first start against a bottom three Minnesota defense. It was a mixed bag of mostly nothing in White's other three starts. Zero TDs during that span.

Fields>>>...<<<...???>\<][✓=÷????White???
Let's just post stats for all of his QB's
with Zach Wilson - 102/1235/2 in 21 games = per game average of 4.9 catches, 58.8 yards, .1 TD
with Aaron Rodgers - 101/1104/7 in 17 games = per game average of 5.9 catches, 64.9 yards, .4 TD
with Joe Flacco - 27/303/2 in 4 games = per game average of 6.8 catches, 75.8 yards, .5 TD
with Mike White - 22/353/2 in 4 games = per game average of 5.5 catches, 88.3 yards, .5 TD
with Trevor Siemian - 16/160/0 in 3 games = per game average of 5.3 catches, 53.3 yards, 0 TD
with Tim Boyle - 10/94/1 in 2 games = per game average of 5.0 catches, 47 yards, .5 TD
 
Wow. Got paid like JJ/JC. Good for him.
Its a bit less than those guys, but its top-5 money. Its more akin to DK Metcalf (probably a comparable WR) or AJ Brown (A FAR superior WR)

Not a big fan of the move by the Jets really. Maybe I'm being unfair holding his QB play against him, but I still wonder if Wilson isn't more, good than great, ala DJ Moore.
 
Wow. Got paid like JJ/JC. Good for him.
Its a bit less than those guys, but its top-5 money. Its more akin to DK Metcalf (probably a comparable WR) or AJ Brown (A FAR superior WR)

Not a big fan of the move by the Jets really. Maybe I'm being unfair holding his QB play against him, but I still wonder if Wilson isn't more, good than great, ala DJ Moore.
by the time the extension kicks in it will be around #10 in WR salary - regardless had to lock him up. He's produced with absolute trash at QB and being ignored by Rodgers for Devante. GW has earned his Jet stripes and hoping Fields can develop and they turn into a solid connection.
 
Early to mid 3rd round pick, ~WR15. I dunno, honestly the price feels about right on Wilson to me. Could he exceed his ADP, for sure. I can also see just about as many scenarios where he fails to meet it.

From a draft philosophy standpoint, gun to my head, I would actually say I personally think he's a little rich for a guy with such a wide range of outcomes. By the third round I am willing to take a little more risk with my picks, but I think I'd still lean towards what appears to be a safer floor with a guy like Davante Adams in that range. Or move off WR completely and snag a top 3 QB or a top 3 TE there instead.
 

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