WR Jameson Williams, DET (9 Viewers)

[eighsse2]

Kind of a tangent, but I feel like projections are so hard to do, because it depends massively on usage. You give Laquon Treadwell 180 targets in 2024, he will probably be the WR1, I don't care if he's last in the league in catch%. You give Justin Jefferson 50 targets over a full season, he would barely be worth having. Projections are basically usage projections. I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

 

[barackdhouse]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

 

[eighsse2]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

 

[barackdhouse]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Well, I'm all in. In my 12-team PPR redraft with 3 WR and 2 flex starters, I took him in the mid 7th. He's my fourth WR behind Jefferson, D. Moore and Dell. I took high floor/safer players in rounds 1-4 and riskier/potential breakout players in rounds 5-8.

 

[BobbyLayne]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

edit typo

 

[FarFromHome]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Arguably the best and most persuasive post I've seen on these boards. It's simply math. Well done sir.

 

[Deamon]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

if he is the clear #2 and is on the field in almost every set....I think he produces....and he doesn't need a ton of touches to post a very usable score....perfect example of a super high ceiling guy you take a chance on....things are lined up for him NOW....

 

[BobbyLayne]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

I do that for ~ 584 players. I haven’t looked at positional counts but I think it’s roughly

• 57 QBs
• 201 WRs
• 177 RBs
• 79 TEs
• 38 Ks
• 32 DSTs

Basically anyone who is likely to see a touch this year.

 

[Chaka]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

I do that for ~ 584 players. I haven’t looked at positional counts but I think it’s roughly

• 57 QBs
• 201 WRs
• 177 RBs
• 79 TEs
• 38 Ks
• 32 DSTs

Basically anyone who is likely to see a touch this year.

Wow.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Dan Brugler writes 400 player profiles & has 2000 players in The Beast every year.

 

[Deamon]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

I do that for ~ 584 players. I haven’t looked at positional counts but I think it’s roughly

• 57 QBs
• 201 WRs
• 177 RBs
• 79 TEs
• 38 Ks
• 32 DSTs

Basically anyone who is likely to see a touch this year.

Wow.

 

[Chaka]

Dan Bugler writes 400 player profiles & has 2000 players in The Beast every year.

Nope.

Still, wow.

In a good way.

 

[eighsse2]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

I do that for ~ 584 players. I haven’t looked at positional counts but I think it’s roughly

• 57 QBs
• 201 WRs
• 177 RBs
• 79 TEs
• 38 Ks
• 32 DSTs

Basically anyone who is likely to see a touch this year.

Leave it to a programmer to say "roughly [list of exact numerical breakdown]". (You are/were a programmer, I think, right? Or something very dataful at least.)

Pretty impressive work.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I doubt there is much of a spread in fantasy points per opportunity from the best to the worst in the league, given a sufficient sample size.

No. There is a giant spread. And fantasy writers and analysts have been pumping out material on this for years. There are dozens and dozens of stats that look at this.

Some are even useful. Not all players excel despite opportunities. And if course not all opportunities are created equal and there are reams and reams of material that talk about how to smooth that stuff out. Like "catchable" targets.

You're right that opportunity is the main driver of success when it comes to what we should be looking at as fantasy managers. But sometimes guys get opportunities simply because they're on the field. These kinds of stats are exactly how guys lose jobs. Or keep them. But the season moves so fast I don't think NFL teams do a great job of changing personnel but they do know who is doing the most with their chances. And it is a wide AF spread.

Interesting. I suppose touchdowns probably play a big role in that spread.

I think the solid analysts that look at this stuff try to parse that out because TDs are known to be so fluky.

But are they? Ok yes they are but the RZ might be an exception. And it's often stuff like how did player x y z do when it was 3rd or 4th and less than 4 yards. For example. Or differentiating between targets that are between the 20s vs RZ. Snap shares. Tons of nuance to it. Some players become obvious targets in fantasy because of these stats but the market doesn't necessarily see that. That's how I feel about Jamo. His efficiency stats are elite. His explosiveness is elite. His teammates draw attention. Mouths to feed will indeed be a problem.

But if even *one* of LaPorta or AmonRa misses even a single game and Jamo is a must start. And if I'm right his value is going to explode regardless and I think LaPorta is the victim (relative to his ADP anyway he still probably finishes top 8 TE)

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 4)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

Great info. Did you do all that yourself?! Wild if so.

Where does that floor put him in terms of wr#

Your post definitely shows his upside is capped, I'd love to see your predicted numbers as well and what wr that puts him at.

I do that for ~ 584 players. I haven’t looked at positional counts but I think it’s roughly

• 57 QBs
• 201 WRs
• 177 RBs
• 79 TEs
• 38 Ks
• 32 DSTs

Basically anyone who is likely to see a touch this year.

Leave it to a programmer to say "roughly [list of exact numerical breakdown]". (You are/were a programmer, I think, right? Or something very dataful at least.)

Pretty impressive work.

CPA>Finance Director>CFO> bum

too much time on my hands lol

(also you remember the specific numbers when you are sorting looking at the same data; one of my columns is positional rank so as I add players to the bottom I kind of always know I’ve projected xx QB xx WR et al)

 

[ffmail4me]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

 

[BobbyLayne]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Best ball - sure (not sure if you're still OTC, hopefully it's a slow draft)

season long PPR I would probably rank them:

• Brown, Addison, McConkey
  
  
• Coleman, Thomas, Jr, Jamo

Jamo has tremendous upside ( ) but if you're taking as your WR4 or whatever in the 10th then def favor your upside guys, if you want a Flex starter maybe take them in order I have them.

Hope that makes sense....I def want Jamo but still not sure if I am willing to reach beyond the 9th for him.

 

[Deamon]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Absolutely. I'm quite surprised he is still there at pick 110. In Bestball he has crept into going around picks 85-95

 

[Deamon]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Best ball - sure (not sure if you're still OTC, hopefully it's a slow draft)

season long PPR I would probably rank them:

• Brown, Addison, McConkey
  
  
• Coleman, Thomas, Jr, Jamo

Jamo has tremendous upside ( ) but if you're taking as your WR4 or whatever in the 10th then def favor your upside guys, if you want a Flex starter maybe take them in order I have them.

Hope that makes sense....I def want Jamo but still not sure if I am willing to reach beyond the 9th for him.

Bobby, what are your projections for him? (not floor or ceiling, but if you had to predict his line and where he finishes as WR_? what would it be?)

 

[BobbyLayne]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Best ball - sure (not sure if you're still OTC, hopefully it's a slow draft)

season long PPR I would probably rank them:

• Brown, Addison, McConkey
  
  
• Coleman, Thomas, Jr, Jamo

Jamo has tremendous upside ( ) but if you're taking as your WR4 or whatever in the 10th then def favor your upside guys, if you want a Flex starter maybe take them in order I have them.

Hope that makes sense....I def want Jamo but still not sure if I am willing to reach beyond the 9th for him.

Bobby, what are your projections for him? (not floor or ceiling, but if you had to predict his line and where he finishes as WR_? what would it be?)

62​

855​

6​

10​

62​

0​

189.7​

think that's in the WR 34-36 neighborhood

my range upthread is where I see the outliers being, but gun to my head, I think he comes in as a decent fantasy WR, solid NFL starter, but not at a Pro Bowl level for another year.

would be over the moon if I'm wrong (in the good way) but I'm trying to strike a balance here.

 

[Deamon]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Best ball - sure (not sure if you're still OTC, hopefully it's a slow draft)

season long PPR I would probably rank them:

• Brown, Addison, McConkey
  
  
• Coleman, Thomas, Jr, Jamo

Jamo has tremendous upside ( ) but if you're taking as your WR4 or whatever in the 10th then def favor your upside guys, if you want a Flex starter maybe take them in order I have them.

Hope that makes sense....I def want Jamo but still not sure if I am willing to reach beyond the 9th for him.

Bobby, what are your projections for him? (not floor or ceiling, but if you had to predict his line and where he finishes as WR_? what would it be?)

62​

855​

6​

10​

62​

0​

189.7​

think that's in the WR 34-36 neighborhood

my range upthread is where I see the outliers being, but gun to my head, I think he comes in as a decent fantasy WR, solid NFL starter, but not at a Pro Bowl level for another year.

would be over the moon if I'm wrong (in the good way) but I'm trying to strike a balance here.

This seems about right to me too.

I actually have him a touch higher at around 63-900-7 and 100 rushing.

205 points and right about WR30, which would be a tremendous bargain as FBG still has him ranked WR53.

 

[barackdhouse]

Well, I'm all in. In my 12-team PPR redraft with 3 WR and 2 flex starters, I took him in the mid 7th. He's my fourth WR behind Jefferson, D. Moore and Dell. I took high floor/safer players in rounds 1-4 and riskier/potential breakout players in rounds 5-8.

that is the other thing - we can afford to be speculative with him right now

 

[BassNBrew]

You guys are getting me pumped about him. I'm OTC in the 10th round of a 12 team PPR best ball redraft, would you take Jameson over Coleman, McConkey, Thomas Jr, Addison, and Hollywood Brown? In this format I'm thinking he is worth it right?

Hollywood, no way unless Mahomes retired and I missed it.

 

[BassNBrew]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

edit typo

@Joe Bryant

Do you pay cash referrals to people who recommend new hires? If so, I recommend @BobbyLayne As a side note, if you're considering expanding into Europe with Cyclingguys, Bobby knows that spot inside an out.

 

[barackdhouse]

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share

Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)

TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)

That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.

That’s an NFL record for total yardage.

TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)

Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.

The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0

Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16

LEAGUE WINNER

Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.

Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)

90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0

That’s not helping anyone.

edit typo

Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.

Let's assume for a second that the Lions as a whole do just a bit less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO respectfully your projection of a floor is much more unlikely than your projection of a ceiling and the entire construct has your bias in it - while I'm acknowledging this is good work and a great place to start). Let's be just a skosh more realistic with the ceiling and say it's lower. Even though I think it is *very* plausible I'd agree it isn't very probable. The floor is absurd to me though. He will be getting more than 5 rushes and that projection is not defendable. 90 targets is probably more than fair though but there is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.

As for TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season. But even in my range where I'm saying the Lions have something a little less than that, there is a major factor in your projections that do not speak whatsoever to what Jameson might do if addressed:

What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more? In your projections you have LaPorta going from 120 targets last year to 133 this year. Now, again, that could very well end up true, but if we're testing the ranges of outcomes we *have* to look at these other player position breakdowns. And again I'd reiterate you did solid work, but there is room to see plausible pathways to fantasy success. So, let's look at same idea just slightly tweaked:

600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:

• ARSB 163| 27.3%
• LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
• Jamo 118 | 19.7%
• Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
• All RBs 112 | 18.7%

Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo

Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. Like you said - league winner, but with less than a historic offense requirement (because that parameter isn't necessary)

My floor is going to be like this and lets say they have 570 targets to go around now:

• ARSB 156| 27.3%
• LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
• Jamo 100 | 17.5%
• Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
• All RBs 107 | 18.7%

65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1

212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think the default position should be that his share is going to double and that it should be more difficult to make the argument that it won't. People really expect the same usage as before? Not a chance.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Not sure what the speculation is here. People act like it's not possible for a team to have two 1,000 yard WR. God forbid Laporta or Brown miss a game or two. Because football players never get hurt, right?

The guy played at Alabama was the #12 overall pick and is a year 3 WR breakout candidate who is getting rave reviews in camp. Don't overthink it, you could do a lot worse with your 9th round pick...

 

[psychobillies]

I love the Shark Pool in August. Great thread, guys.

 

[BobbyLayne]

this kid brings so much joy - hoping he crushes whatever his ADP ends up being

loves to block, throws his skinny butt into the mix whenever there’s a scrum, has that happy-go-lucky class clown vibe

teammates love him & he is genuine - he’s always around town, engaging fans, you can tell he loves mentoring teens because he had good role models that kept him on the right path

+ he’s grown up a lot the last 12 months; Teddy Bridgewater spent a lot of time with him, teaching him what it means to be a pro, telling him to thin the posse & get his priorities right

he admits he wasn’t as focused as he needed to be his first 12-15 months in the league, but he’s really turned into a grinder - love the work ethic, want to see him get rewarded

hype video

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.

His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%

Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.

Jamo missed games and Jamo is going from WR4 to WR2. Goff and Jamo were never on the same page until very late. Jamo's target share is absolutely going to more than double in 2024.

Jamo has worked hard with Goff and Goff is focusing on throwing better deep balls. Reynold's is not even remotely the weapon Jamo is and could never generate the separation that Jamo can. You can't use Reynolds as a yardstick for Jamo, they are not in the same league.

Jamo's catch rate for the last 6 games was already 68% (17 of 25) counting the playoff games. The early season was weighted down by the pathetic blowout game the Lions had against the Ravens when he was 0 for 6 on targets. There is no reason to believe Jamo's catch rate will not be in the 70's this season.

The projections you think are unrealistic are in fact extremely realistic and are probably closer to the floor than the ceiling.

Many players in the NFL take time before they take off and teach their potential. We had Alim McNeil come out of nowhere and became a stud. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything, is indicating Jamo is in for a major step up towards stardom this season. His work ethic. His coaches excitement about his development. The QB and other WR talking him up and praising his work and progress. His performance in camp. There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

Speaking of absurd projections... 76 catches for 1400 yards and 12 tds is even more absurd than WR50.

 

[Deamon]

Don't overthink it, you could do a lot worse with your 9th round pick...

I haven't seen one person here say he isn't a great value this year. It's the guy projecting him as a top10 WR this year that is what is being argued against. I think all of us would grab him in R9 if he was sitting there. I certainly would. Round 3-5 is absurd.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

Speaking of absurd projections... 76 catches for 1400 yards and 12 tds is even more absurd than WR50.

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

Speaking of absurd projections... 76 catches for 1400 yards and 12 tds is even more absurd than WR50.

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I've never seen someone straw man more than you have in my life.

I literally projected him at WR30, why would I bet that he's closer to 20 than 50? JFC man.

 

[Deamon]

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I'll bet you $1000 that my projections for him are closer than your projections are for him.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

Speaking of absurd projections... 76 catches for 1400 yards and 12 tds is even more absurd than WR50.

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I've never seen someone straw man more than you have in my life.

I literally projected him at WR30, why would I bet that he's closer to 20 than 50? JFC man.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs. It was 76-1140-9. And if you are so convinced he is WR30, why are you so offended by my projections? It is absurd the likes if WR that Jamo is being ranked with. That is what us absurd.

 

[Ray_T]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

There is no chance a healthy Jamo is WR50. It is an absurd projection.

Speaking of absurd projections... 76 catches for 1400 yards and 12 tds is even more absurd than WR50.

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I've never seen someone straw man more than you have in my life.

I literally projected him at WR30, why would I bet that he's closer to 20 than 50? JFC man.

hes a homer...


and I guess he wants some easy money. without making any prediction on who is right or wrong, his bet actually validates your prediction.

think about that one. either way, it will be fun to see who is right on this at the end of the year.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

 

[jon_mx]

$1000 says Jamo is closer to WR20 than WR50.

I'll bet you $1000 that my projections for him are closer than your projections are for him.

I don't think WR30 is an absurd projection, i see that as about his floor. I have no beef with that projection. What I do have a beef with is making my projection to be more absurd than WR50. Do you want to put money on that?

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

You are combining rushing and recieving into just recieving stats making it look worse. That is not the same.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.- 280 PPR Points

I actually have him a touch higher at around 63-900-7 and 100 rushing. - 205 PPR Points

either way, it will be fun to see who is right on this at the end of the year.

I'm confident Jamo will be closer to 205 than 280 this year. So we will see who is 'right' on that, and I'm willing to basically put anything down on that. 280 puts him at WR 8, 7, and 9 over the last 3 years.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

You are combining rushing and recieving into just recieving stats making it look worse. That is not the same.

I'm talking about All purpose yards.... you predict 1400 all purpose yards, and 12 tds, and 76 catches. 280 fantasy points. This would be a top 10 WR in every NFL season in history.

 

[Deamon]

I don't think WR30 is an absurd projection, i see that as about his floor. I have no beef with that projection. What I do have a beef with is making my projection to be more absurd than WR50. Do you want to put money on that?

You do realize that if my projection hit perfectly, you would win that bet right? LOL.

I think WR7 is more absurd than WR50, yes. But I think he finishes around WR30. There is no possible way I see him cracking the top 10 WR's in the NFL this year, on a team with Gibbs, Laporta, ARSB, etc on the team.

Your 280 points projection is insane, and I'm willing to bet you anything you want that my projection is closer than your projection is.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

You are combining rushing and recieving into just recieving stats making it look worse. That is not the same.

I'm talking about All purpose yards.... you predict 1400 all purpose yards, and 12 tds, and 76 catches. 280 fantasy points. This would be a top 10 WR in every NFL season in history.

I put lots of numbers out, the one you quote was not my prediction, but were a calculation i put out if Jamo got 6 targets a game and made 4.5 catches at 15 ypc. That calculation was to show my projections were within the realm of possibilities. I believe my actual projections were more like 70-1040. I would put his range somewhere between 940 and 1200.

 

[Deamon]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

You are combining rushing and recieving into just recieving stats making it look worse. That is not the same.

I'm talking about All purpose yards.... you predict 1400 all purpose yards, and 12 tds, and 76 catches. 280 fantasy points. This would be a top 10 WR in every NFL season in history.

I put lots of numbers out, the one you quote was not my prediction, but were a calculation i put out if Jamo got 6 targets a game and made 4.5 catches at 15 ypc. That calculation was to show my projections were within the realm of possibilities. I believe my actual projections were more like 70-1040. I would put his range somewhere between 940 and 1200.

Can you show me a single person in here who said he would be closer to WR50 than to WR20? That's the argument you keep yelling about... is there a SINGLE post on that?

 

[jon_mx]

I don't think WR30 is an absurd projection, i see that as about his floor. I have no beef with that projection. What I do have a beef with is making my projection to be more absurd than WR50. Do you want to put money on that?

You do realize that if my projection hit perfectly, you would win that bet right? LOL.

I think WR7 is more absurd than WR50, yes. But I think he finishes around WR30. There is no possible way I see him cracking the top 10 WR's in the NFL this year, on a team with Gibbs, Laporta, ARSB, etc on the team.

Your 280 points projection is insane, and I'm willing to bet you anything you want that my projection is closer than your projection is.

You have not accurately captured what I have been saying. If you want to bet my projections are more absurd than WR50 (which you have now said twice), I will take that. But seeing I really don't disagree with your projection, I have no reason to bet against that.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs.

Speaking of strawman, I never said 76-1400-12 TDs

You are combining rushing and recieving into just recieving stats making it look worse. That is not the same.

I'm talking about All purpose yards.... you predict 1400 all purpose yards, and 12 tds, and 76 catches. 280 fantasy points. This would be a top 10 WR in every NFL season in history.

I put lots of numbers out, the one you quote was not my prediction, but were a calculation i put out if Jamo got 6 targets a game and made 4.5 catches at 15 ypc. That calculation was to show my projections were within the realm of possibilities. I believe my actual projections were more like 70-1040. I would put his range somewhere between 940 and 1200.

Can you show me a single person in here who said he would be closer to WR50 than to WR20? That's the argument you keep yelling about... is there a SINGLE post on that?

You did, when you stated my projections were more absurd than the WR50 projections.

 

[Deamon]

You have not accurately captured what I have been saying. If you want to bet my projections are more absurd than WR50 (which you have now said twice), I will take that. But seeing I really don't disagree with your projection, I have no reason to bet against that.

Saying WR7 is more absurd than WR50 does not mean that I think he finishes closer to WR50 than to WR7. That's not how it works. I think his upside is capped at WR15, I think WR7 is almost impossible, where I think WR50 is slightly less impossible. So yes, your projections are more absurd, but also yes, I think he finishes closer to WR20 than WR50

 

[Deamon]

You did, when you stated my projections were more absurd than the WR50 projections.

That's not the same thing. At all.

For example:

People think a guy will run 100 Meters in 15 seconds.
You think he will run 100 Meters in 5 seconds.

Even if I think he will run it in 10 seconds (closer to 6 than to 15), the 6 second prediction is far more absurd.

Understanding?