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WR Jameson Williams, DET (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
College and pro years.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Looks like he got better every year in college and every year in the pros.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Context matters…
2019: true freshman in a run-heavy offense led by Justin Fields (Ohio State as a team had
647 rush attempts versus 404 pass attempts)
2020: COVID shortened season, team only 8 played games, still good for third on the team in receiving yards with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave ahead of him, in an offense, yes, still led by Justin Fields (337 rush attempts as a team versus only 225 pass attempts)
2021: Jameson Williams joins a much more balanced offense in Alabama led by Heisman winner that year Bryce Young (571 pass attempts as a team versus 542 rush attempts), is their starter and leads in receiving yards by far despite trailing in receptions behind John Metchie, becomes first team All-American and first team All-SEC
2022: injury-shortened rookie season, recovering from torn ACL he suffered in the national championship game that January, didn’t play until December after missing all of rookie camp, training camp, and preseason recovering from said injury
(Also correction needed from your stat line there: Williams only had one catch that year, but that catch went for a touchdown, so that should read 1 / 41 / 1)
2023: struggled to put up numbers in what for all intents and purposes was his actual rookie season with a full offseason of practice, was suspended the first month for placing a bet on a college football game while at the team hotel during a road trip, flashed at times and showed his big play potential
Patience was always going to be needed with Williams going into the NFL, especially for dynasty owners. The drum beat has been loud this offseason, especially by his head coach who doesn’t pull punches with his words. I still don’t think Goff is a great fit for what Williams does best, as Goff lives in the short to intermediate range where ARSB and LaPorta will feast. But Williams can still put up big numbers despite less volume. For now I would look at Rashid Shaheed’s 2023 as a benchmark for what can be expected out of Williams this season (Shaheed had a 46/719/5 line on 75 targets, good for WR40 in fantasy). Not earth shattering but useful, with potential for more based on his talent and the Lions offense.
Here’s more food for thought:
Last season Williams had 24/354/2 on 42 targets. Not much to write home about. But keep in mind there are now 64 vacated targets from Josh Reynolds, who left this offseason for the Broncos. Now of course those targets are likely to be distributed to more than just Williams (DPJ may take a chunk for all we know). But those were the targets of the Lions’ WR2 in Reynolds, so for this exercise let’s give those to their current WR2 Williams.
Based on his output last year, if you extrapolate those targets (now at 106) with Williams’ 2023 averages, you’re now looking at a line of 61/896/5. That puts him somewhere in the higher end range of the fantasy WR4 types (Shaheed, Doubs, etc.). That’s just from last year, and I’m willing to assume he’ll be an improved player this year with health permitting. But again that’s all hypothetical, as 100+ targets may still be on the optimistic side. Have to expect Gibbs will be more involved this year than he was last year. But for now I’ll say 800 receiving yards is the over/under for him.
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bluemanfoo
Footballguy
As a Lions' homer, Campbell has made glowing remarks about Jameson having a great offseason, which is in stark contrast to last year when he said Jameson did not have great hands. Williams was already a physical specimen but came into camp in even better shape, more mentally focused, and "looks like a totally different receiver". IMO Jameson is exactly the type of young, talented WR to take a "swing on" that you can get for relatively cheap.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think Rashid Shaheed is the most likely successful season for Jamo. 700-850 total yards, 4-7 TDs.
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
Yes that's the obvious opinion based on previous stats. My offseason research is about identifying possible breakouts that go against the stats, which is one key to winning leagues.
Basing Jamo on his previous years is pointless, he was WR4 and had little chemistry with Goff, which with Goff chemistry is vital. Goff and Jamo are cooking already in camp and Goff is focused hard on improving his deep ball this year.
Jamo is clear WR2 and the way the Lions spread the ball that will translate into 5 to 7 targets a game, which should result in about 4.5 catches a game. Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs. That is Jamos upside. This kid has a gear and allusiveness which only Tyrek Hill has.
Maybe there aren't enough balls to go around to produce that, but I would bet Ben Johnson finds a way to utilize that kind of tool. Jamo's career rushing stats are an absurd 5-111-2. Jamo is ready.
Jamo is clear WR2 and the way the Lions spread the ball that will translate into 5 to 7 targets a game, which should result in about 4.5 catches a game. Jamo is looking at a stat line of 76-1140-9. Throw on a dozen rushes for 12-180-3 into the mix and you are looking at about 1400 yards and 12 TDs. That is Jamos upside. This kid has a gear and allusiveness which only Tyrek Hill has.
Maybe there aren't enough balls to go around to produce that, but I would bet Ben Johnson finds a way to utilize that kind of tool. Jamo's career rushing stats are an absurd 5-111-2. Jamo is ready.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He definitely has upside. He was a highly dratfed player. That said, basucally doubling his career yards in year 3 is a pretty big hit at this point. I thought I was being pretty aggresive in my outlook.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is a massive upside. If he hits that there are some other Lions who disappoint for fantasyl.
The Lions offense has not peaked yet. They were a top tier offense last year with SF and Miami, and this year they could be in a tier by themselves. This team is capable of an offensively historical year. Last year I thought they would get close to 7000 yards and they got 6712. This year I expect them to exceed 7000 yards, probably close to 7200 yards and 30 points a game. That is my crazy take, which in hindsight have been proven not crazy at all. See my early hot takes on ARSB, LaPorta and Gibbs. There will be a ton of yards to feed a lot of players.
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Deamon
Footballguy
shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh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Sorry to break this to you, but Jamo is going to continue to create buzz in camp. Jamo will touch the ball maybe three times in preseason and have at least one Wamo. Jamo will be on the biggest hype train going into the season. Super early drafts he will still be an awesome bargain you can get in the 7th to 9th rounds. As you get close to week one, I could see him going in the 3rd. His floor is 800 yards, his ceiling is twice that.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I do enjoy your Lion’s optimism!
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I know you're the resident fan, but I don't think that's the way floors work. It seems wild to claim he has a floor of 800 yards when we have last season to use as a barometer. It's seems very clear his FLOOR would be what he did last year. Maybe being very generous we could take his YPG average of 29 and the fact he didn't play 5 games and tack ~150 yards onto last years totals and say his floor is ~500 yards. You can project him for more than that, and it's probably true he "should" get more than that. But that is not what his floor would be, at least as I've understood floor and ceiling to be for the past 20 years.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Love his speed. Love his talent. Love that Lions offense. At best he is is Desean Jackson. At worst he is Mecole Hardman. Hard to say. Is he a heavily targeted part of the offense or a couple times a game gadget guy. I have a 50/50 wrong or right hit rate. I'm saying gadget guy who is much better real life player rather then fantasy contributor. Imo
Using last year as a barometer is why he is undervalued severely. Jamo was WR4, snap count was low, and had no chemistry with Goff. Jamo missed 4 games and played horrible his first games back. This year Jamo is locked into the WR2 position and will be on the field most every play, everyone is raving a out him, and Goff is focused on i.priving his long ball to incorporate Goff. Jamo will have his first camp where he is healthy and is not on IR or have a suspension hanging over his head. Use last year as a gage at your own peril. 800 is his floor. A extremely talented play who is a WR2 on the best offense in the NFL is not a gadget player.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
The term floor is always used. I just can't see his floor, at even 600 yards, after a 24 reception, 354 yard, 12 game season. Maybe im missing something. Isn't his floor what he just did last season? Or do we move his floor up with what we expect? All my opinion so please don't be mean to me.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I get all that, and even agree with some of it. But that's not what floor means to the majority of people lol. Nearly everything you pointed out is a projection that you hope will get better. Again, I even agree with some of it. But what his floor would be is what would be the case if a lot of that stuff doesn't happen. If he doesn't improve his hands, his chemistry with Goff doesn't improve, if basically not much changes from last season aside from playing a full slate of games his floor would be about 500 yards. You're just using the word wrong bud, sorry.
If you were to say you project him at around 800 yards with the potential to far exceed that; that I can get on board with. Hell, I'd probably put my money on it as well (the 800 yards part, probably not far exceeding it haha). I get it's semantics, but words do matter so people actually understand what you're talking about. And I think that's why it's especially important with a guy like Jamo because of his first two years basically being busts.
Floor and ceiling are important not just for projecting outcomes, but noting the stability of those outcomes. Consistent/"safe" players will have a floor and a ceiling that are relatively close. A guy like Jameson is considered a risky or volatile player because his floor and ceiling are pretty darn far apart. I can see where you can build a case for him having a very high ceiling pending a lot of positive regression and projecting a lot of positive growth for him on the team. But it doesn't negate what he did the first two years, which leave him with a much lower floor. The entire point of the analytical side of fantasy is removing all the specific details that impact players and just looking at pure percentages based on historical trends and data. Anyone can make excuses for any individual player not performing year over year. But when you look at WRs who come into the league and put up the numbers that Jamo did his first two years, he's a very low percentage to hit at this point. He could undoubtedly be an outlier and be part of that small percentage. But coming full circle, that's where strong analysis shows you need to recognize the low floor, and ultimately low odds, of that happening.
What you are really betting on, and where I can agree with you, is that that risk is baked into his ADP of WR50. Then his potential ceiling looks a lot more attractive, and his low floor is more bearable as you don't need to pay the price of a WR3 for him. You're more or less paying for his floor right now, and anything you get above that is sugar on top. That's a good buy. But when his ADP starts creeping up, the value proposition gets a worse. Again, why it's important to acknowledge what his actual floor is rather than projecting a lot of positivity into it. It skews the actual valuation.
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Projections of floors are expectations for this season. What he did last season is a data point. But why would you use last season when the role is going to increase three-fold? When you account for Goff tendencies, the coaching staff raving about him, his increase role, Jamo finally understanding the routes and running them precisely, the potent offense he is in, and his speed and elusiveness....barring some kind of injury to him or Goff, Jamo is not going under 800 yards.
I am not one who ever goes along with the herd mentality of the consensus. You win leagues by finding those players who the 'experts' are wrong about. IMO, the current consensus on Jamo has him grossly too low.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
We definitely can all agree he is gonna be a fun guy to watch how this season plays out. I love his current ADP. How much draft capital am I willing to invest? I could prolly attempt to justify wr30 and maybe get a good night sleep. Maybe. Ha ha
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I hear ya, just disagree on the term floor, but outside of that on a similar page. I still maintain floor is basically the "worst case scenario" or the least amount of production you can reasonably predict for a player. It feels like your definition of floor is more what you are projecting to be the more likely outcome, or what I'd consider to be the middle ground between a players floor and ceiling.
Regardless I do think WR50/round 10 is too low for him, and I'm not even a Jamo guy. But considering my personal biggest red flags for him aside from his bad hands were all mental. I don't give a ton of weight to camp blurbs as far as actual production, but I do think they speak to where a guy is at mentally and with his effort. If a guy is bumming around or being a head case, I've found they just won't talk about him. Or the blurbs will be a bit more vague. His have certainly been glowing. If he's focused on the field and dedicated to improving like it sounds he has been through this offseason, I'd be comfortable taking him a couple rounds higher than he is going; cut off for me would probably be a low end WR3 in the 35-40 range and around late round 6 into round 8. If he's still there at the end of round 8 I've been snagging him a lot in mocks. He's feeling like a great upside play if you're taking him as your WR4/Flex.
I bet he’s also in the best shape of his career.
The news is great about him this offseason, no doubt. I truly expect a greatly improved player this year, when it comes to helping the Lions. For fantasy however... I just don't see where the volume is going to come from. ARSB seems a safe bet to continue to dominate targets, so I would expect another 150+ for him. Laporta had 120, not sure why that would change much. Just giving Jamo the 64 vacated by Reynolds seems like bad process, someone is going to be replacing Reynolds at the X in 11 personnel. Whoever that is will get some targets, maybe not the 64 Reynolds got, but some. Gibbs seems likely to see an increase also, even if it's slight (had 71 last year).
This becomes one of those exercises Bloom always preaches about... if you really like a guy to break out, look at what everyone else on the team should reasonably expect to get for volume, and see if there is enough left for your breakout. I think if you do that, you end up with Jamo just not having the volume available to be much more than a high variance WR3/4 as far as fantasy. Great for the Lions, probably a good value if the ADP stays where it is, but a true "breakout" seems tough. I think the folks calling for 800ish yards are probably in the right neighborhood. 80/90 targets, 50-60 catches, 700-900 yards, 6-8 TDs? Probably love it in best ball, frustrating in weekly lineups, and again... great for the Lions.
This becomes one of those exercises Bloom always preaches about... if you really like a guy to break out, look at what everyone else on the team should reasonably expect to get for volume, and see if there is enough left for your breakout. I think if you do that, you end up with Jamo just not having the volume available to be much more than a high variance WR3/4 as far as fantasy. Great for the Lions, probably a good value if the ADP stays where it is, but a true "breakout" seems tough. I think the folks calling for 800ish yards are probably in the right neighborhood. 80/90 targets, 50-60 catches, 700-900 yards, 6-8 TDs? Probably love it in best ball, frustrating in weekly lineups, and again... great for the Lions.
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
The Lions have expressed the one thing they've been missing is a deep threat that can take the top off of defenses. If Jamo truly is a "totally different receiver", then he'll get Josh Reynolds' previous targets and should eat into some of opportunities for ARSB, LaPorta, and the running backs.
I have the Lions breaking the 7000 yard mark this year. This offense is better than last years, mainly with the emergence of Jamo but also a bump for Gibbs. This is how Jamo gets 1300 total yards.
ARSB....1300
Jamo.....1300
Gibbs....1300
LaPorta...1000
Monty....800
DPJ....500
Raymond....400
Others....400
There is no way the Lions are not giving Jamo 5-7 targets a game and an occasional carry. Jamo is the most dangerous man in the entire NFL with the ball in his hands. He touches the ball 5 times a game gets 15 yards per touch, that is 1275 yards. There is zero chance a healthy Jamo gets under 800 yards. Zero.
Jamo slices up the entire SF Defense.
Jamo leading the way fo Monty
ARSB....1300
Jamo.....1300
Gibbs....1300
LaPorta...1000
Monty....800
DPJ....500
Raymond....400
Others....400
There is no way the Lions are not giving Jamo 5-7 targets a game and an occasional carry. Jamo is the most dangerous man in the entire NFL with the ball in his hands. He touches the ball 5 times a game gets 15 yards per touch, that is 1275 yards. There is zero chance a healthy Jamo gets under 800 yards. Zero.
Jamo slices up the entire SF Defense.
Jamo leading the way fo Monty
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eighsse2
Footballguy
"Zero chance" is quite a hyperbole, I mean even if you say that is rounding down from 0.49% or something, that's 200:1 odds ...? But I love the confidence. Matching St. Brown's total yards feels far-fetched. But as an owner I totally am rooting for the kid, and hope you're right.
Deamon
Footballguy
damn, you have him and amonra having the same yardage this year?
Its a stretch for sure but I assume he is talking combined yards and Jamo has proven he is a handful as runner so there may be a hundred or two of rushing yards in that total. (Just my assumption on the number).
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
That highlight of him against SF showcases his athleticism. And now that he doesn't have to worry about rehabbing the ACL, he reportedly spent the offseason getting in even better shape. He reportedly is stronger and faster (if you can believe he can get any faster).
Deamon
Footballguy
I feel like every player is always reportedly this way. Where's all the coach interviews saying "he seems to be a touch slower this year"
Deamon
Footballguy
Just took him 99th overall today, basically because of this thread lol
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
Dan Campbell doesn't mince words. He said Jamo had bad hands around this time last year, which Jamo did. Now Campbell is raving about him.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
coachspeakindex.com rates him as the straightest shooter in the league
transparency is kind of a big deal around Allen Park
Jam Session
Footballguy
One of my takeaways from watching Receiver was that ARSB is a good thing for Jamo. Just having an example of what a true pro looks like. Should help him get closer to reaching his potential.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My highest rostered receiver in best ball. Fairly overweight really around 50% through ~130 drafts. He's too deadly of a weapon on a team full of weapons to not be featured. Anon-Ra isn't losing any piece of his pie but the others will IMO. I also agree the Jamo will be a bit of a up/down choice from week to week. But for where he is going if he is like your 4th or 5th WR you can afford to draft him and see what happens. In the big contests, where you need to unlock the code to win the million in weeks 15-17, so to speak, this is the kind of explosive player you want on your roster(s).
When I say you can afford to wait and see, I'm talking about redraft, in best balls I'm more or less planting my flag. He has been too cheap all offseason.
When I say you can afford to wait and see, I'm talking about redraft, in best balls I'm more or less planting my flag. He has been too cheap all offseason.
kutta
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Damn, I've only done 30 of them and I thought that was a lot. I have him rostered in about 60% of these bestball drafts.... about what pick are you taking him at? His ADP is around 15, I'm pulling the trigger anywhere between pick 95 and 110.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
confident and mature
Such an easy guy to root for; you can tell he loves ball & is a great teammate.
He’s on another level this year. So awesome to see how much he has grown.
Everyone questions if the volume will be there, but he’s the kind of playmaker who can a lot with just an average workload.
Just listen to MCDC, Ben Johnson, Goff, ARSB, Lions defensive players - all the people who are around him know what’s coming. Big breakout.
Such an easy guy to root for; you can tell he loves ball & is a great teammate.
He’s on another level this year. So awesome to see how much he has grown.
Everyone questions if the volume will be there, but he’s the kind of playmaker who can a lot with just an average workload.
Just listen to MCDC, Ben Johnson, Goff, ARSB, Lions defensive players - all the people who are around him know what’s coming. Big breakout.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Really hoping Jamo gets let go by the owner in my 10 team/10 player keeper league. I would love to grab him early in my draft. I already have Amon Ra and LaPorta, so I do fear being Lion heavy, but like the thought of it.
