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WR Josh Gordon, KC (6 Viewers)

gianmarco said:
Josh Gordon = Bitcoin

Sell or hold.... The massive dilemma.
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If I can sell for second round ADP I think I would sell if strong at WR. We are still hoping an addict with no history of sobriety stays sober. But I like the reward to risk in and wouldn’t trade him for a really good player back

 
I love josh as well.  Those of us that still have him either bought him cheap or are holding forever.  I sold one of my shares for Thielen and Burton.  I got flash for a mid 3rd last season.  What do you think soulfly?

 
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The Josh Gordon thread is the Punxsutawney Phil of the Shark Pool.

If Josh Gordon pokes out his head and sees @Soulfly3 WINTER IS OVER!!!!

 
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jadensdad said:
I love josh as well.  Those of us that still have him either bought him cheap or are holding forever.  I sold one of my shares for Thielen and Burton.  I got flash for a mid 3rd last season.  What do you think soulfly?
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I think you're playing with a bunch of nincompoops. Lucky you.

Chaka said:
The Josh Gordon thread is the Punxsutawney Phil of the Shark Pool.

If Josh Gordon pokes out his head and sees @Soulfly3 WINTER IS OVER!!!!
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Winter is over, and so is the 18/19 season for anyone who doesn't own gordon.

 
SayWhat? said:
Your post is spot on as to how I feel.  Can’t understand how this isn’t more of issue for even the most optimistic Gordon owners.  There’s upside there for sure, but it’s been five years since his one notable season.  He’s flashed a few times since then, but largely been pretty invisible.

He’s definitely one of the story lines I’m most eager to follow this season.





3
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2013 was sheer magic. Can't take it away and wouldn't try to. But the otherworldly efficiency of that season was something we'd have been silly to project the next year, let alone five mostly-suspended years later.

I know it's hard to lean on the 10 games since 2013 as a sample size. The circumstances were clearly against him in every sense. Still, the circumstances aren't much better now. QBs have posted ANY/As of 4.64 and 3.63 over Hue's CLE tenure, and Haley has a somewhat overstated resume. Tygod and Mayfield aren't big demonstrable upgrades; at the very least, we have to proceed here in June as though they aren't. Projecting intergalactic, 2013-esque efficiency would be deeply wishful, IMO, so I do think we need to trim the ceiling we collectively give him. 118 yd/gm isn't his ceiling; it's not happening again. Again, it wasn't projectably in the cards four years ago.

The good news is that Gordon doesn't need that kind of efficiency to justify a 4.03 PPR ADP. He actually checks in among my projections as PPR WR21, behind Cooper but ahead of Crabtree/Fuller. That'd be a stout return from your fourth-rounder. @Matt Waldman recently mentioned in an FBG discussion that he makes for a fine WR3 if you're drafting Upside Down, which I agree with wholeheartedly, or as Zero-RB meat. If you can open, say, Julio-Beckham-Mixon-Gordon-DLewis, or Julio-Beckham-Hilton-Gordon-DLewis, then based strictly on projections you're  looking like fried gold. But there's a demonstrable downside to Gordon that other sky's-the-limit guys in that range (Hilton, Diggs, JuJu) don't quite sink to. His likelihood of posting 0-0-0-0 is notably higher, which always matters at least a little, and the peripherals in the CLE offense are troubling. Even if he's truly still a man among boys, he's a shakier stab than most at ADP equity.

 
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Justin Howe said:
2013 was sheer magic. Can't take it away and wouldn't try to. But the otherworldly efficiency of that season was something we'd have been silly to project the next year, let alone five mostly-suspended years later.

I know it's hard to lean on the 10 games since 2013 as a sample size. The circumstances were clearly against him in every sense. Still, the circumstances aren't much better now. QBs have posted ANY/As of 4.64 and 3.63 over Hue's CLE tenure, and Haley has a somewhat overstated resume. Tygod and Mayfield aren't big demonstrable upgrades; at the very least, we have to proceed here in June as though they aren't. Projecting intergalactic, 2013-esque efficiency would be deeply wishful, IMO, so I do think we need to trim the ceiling we collectively give him. 118 yd/gm isn't his ceiling; it's not happening again. Again, it wasn't projectably in the cards four years ago.

The good news is that Gordon doesn't need that kind of efficiency to justify a 4.03 PPR ADP. He actually checks in among my projections as PPR WR21, behind Cooper but ahead of Crabtree/Fuller. That'd be a stout return from your fourth-rounder. @Matt Waldman recently mentioned in an FBG discussion that he makes for a fine WR3 if you're drafting Upside Down, which I agree with wholeheartedly, or as Zero-RB meat. If you can open, say, Julio-Beckham-Mixon-Gordon-DLewis, or Julio-Beckham-Hilton-Gordon-DLewis, then based strictly on projections you're  looking like fried gold. But there's a demonstrable downside to Gordon that other sky's-the-limit guys in that range (Hilton, Diggs, JuJu) don't quite sink to. His likelihood of posting 0-0-0-0 is notably higher, which always matters at least a little, and the peripherals in the CLE offense are troubling. Even if he's truly still a man among boys, he's a shakier stab than most at ADP equity.
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Lots of good stuff here. I would have no problem declaring Tyrod a huge upgrade from Kizer. And Baker as well if he beats out Tyrod to start. This more speaks to how awful Kizer was though. I’ve seen it posted somewhere maybe even on this board that Tyrod got Sammy Wat 60/1050/9 in just 13 games and 96 targets. He can support a Wr1 even in a conservative offense.

 
Cobbler1 said:
Impossibly ripped. I posted this in the Edelman roid thread when someone asked if anyone was not cheating. Gordon still would be getting tested regularly right so should be clean muscle?
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He is subject to up to 10 drug tests per month but those do not include PED testing.  From the PED policy:

Testing Schedules

Like the other substance abuse policy, this one requires testing on a predetermined schedule. Players are tested at least once per year. Ten players per team are randomly selected each week to be tested during both the preseason and regular season. This continues in the postseason for teams who have made the playoffs.

In the offseason, only players under contract are subject to testing. They may be tested up to six times.

 
Justin Howe said:
.

Speaking from my own projections: even if I'm generous with his efficiency marks and award him a few long scores, I can't get him higher than 62-1079-7.
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FWIW read something from Browns beat writer a few days ago where he put his totals at 65/1,267/8 so not that far off from you. Personally I think you both low balled him.

 
Hankmoody said:
He is subject to up to 10 drug tests per month but those do not include PED testing.  From the PED policy:

Testing Schedules

Like the other substance abuse policy, this one requires testing on a predetermined schedule. Players are tested at least once per year. Ten players per team are randomly selected each week to be tested during both the preseason and regular season. This continues in the postseason for teams who have made the playoffs.

In the offseason, only players under contract are subject to testing. They may be tested up to six times.
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Ah good info. Thanks. So he could be roiding out of his mind but that wouldn’t pop up on his drug tests from the substance abuse program.

 
Cobbler1 said:
Impossibly ripped. I posted this in the Edelman roid thread when someone asked if anyone was not cheating. Gordon still would be getting tested regularly right so should be clean muscle?
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I dunno but its never been an issue in terms of the league that I am aware of.

  • Trivia tidbits
Did you know that the Cleveland Browns still hold the most salary cap of any NFL team with over $68 million over the salary cap?

Also, did you know that fifth round pick, rookie WR Antonio Callaway is making more money than Josh Gordon?

That trivia tidbit about Josh Gordon making less than a rookie 5th round pick along with the fact that JG is ranked the 133rd WR in terms of pay leads to reasonable speculation that ....

Flash is next in line for a contract extension.

Who's next to receive a new contract from the Browns?

Now that Duke Johnson just got paid, who is the next Browns draft pick for us to watch out for?

-- Aaron, New Philadelphia, OH

Hey Aaron: I’ve answered variations of this question the same – Josh Gordon. As things stand, Gordon’s compensation for 2018 is $790,001, putting him behind teammates Jarvis Landry, Corey Coleman, Jeff Janis and Antonio Callaway. The figure ranks him 133rd among all NFL wide receivers, according to overthecap.com, making him quite possibly the best bargain in the entire league. We all know Gordon’s history. Because of substance abuse suspensions, he hasn’t appeared in more than five games in a season since 2013. He has cost himself untold millions of dollars. He is due to become a restricted free agent in 2019. If Gordon can stay eligible this year and produces anything close to his freakish ability, I can see the Browns rewarding him with a multi-year deal to head off a possible huge payday in unrestricted free agency in 2020. But Gordon would have to win the trust of GM John Dorsey by staying clean and productive through the first half of the 2018 season.
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The man wants to get paid.

He's scheduled to be a RFA next year.

All he's gotta do is stay clean and his ability should allow him to produce.

I wouldn't put a low ceiling on what he might do this year.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Ive said it many times in the past, but it's never been truer.

Those who sold, will go down as HoF Fantasy Dimwits.
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If by HoF Fantasy Dimwits you mean guys that won fantasy titles over the last few years then you are correct.

 
I've held Josh since drafting him in the second round. I'm his second biggest fan but I also have about an 80% confidence rate of him staying clean. 

Man, if he stays clean, he's going to cash and win championships for us trusting owners. Easily worth the gamble.

 
Slider said:
I've held Josh since drafting him in the second round. I'm his second biggest fan but I also have about an 80% confidence rate of him staying clean. 

Man, if he stays clean, he's going to cash and win championships for us trusting owners. Easily worth the gamble.
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Love josh as well, but at what point are you comfortable to sell.  I sold one share for Thielen and Burton.

 
I get the love for his talent but the concern I have is at QB and competition for targets. Tyrod historically is not a yardage monster and Baker is a rookie that will most likely experience growing pains. They have a much improved running back stable to feed with Hyde, Chubb, and Duke. They have a target monster in Landry, Duke out the backfield, a healthy for now Coleman, a talented Njoku at TE, Devalve at TE who earned 60 targets last year, and numerous #4 WRs that have potential (Janis, Higgins, Callaway, Louis) who will probably have a few targets. I just am having a hard time seeing how he receives enough looks to sniff a high ceiling. I see a low floor, low ceiling situation which bums me out as I have him in dynasty. Hope I am wrong.

 
King of the Jungle said:
I get the love for his talent but the concern I have is at QB and competition for targets. Tyrod historically is not a yardage monster and Baker is a rookie that will most likely experience growing pains. They have a much improved running back stable to feed with Hyde, Chubb, and Duke. They have a target monster in Landry, Duke out the backfield, a healthy for now Coleman, a talented Njoku at TE, Devalve at TE who earned 60 targets last year, and numerous #4 WRs that have potential (Janis, Higgins, Callaway, Louis) who will probably have a few targets. I just am having a hard time seeing how he receives enough looks to sniff a high ceiling. I see a low floor, low ceiling situation which bums me out as I have him in dynasty. Hope I am wrong.
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Being the best WR on the team will generate looks.

Everyone else is fighting for 2nd place.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
:shock: . Pieces? I'm curious what those pieces are and how you could think that you could have lost that trade labeling them as pieces.
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First round rookie pick number 10 overall. I didn’t see anything there dropping to me at 10 so when that offer came to me I took it mainly because no matter how much I like JG as a player I just don’t trust him long term 

 
finfansteve said:
First round rookie pick number 10 overall. I didn’t see anything there dropping to me at 10 so when that offer came to me I took it mainly because no matter how much I like JG as a player I just don’t trust him long term 
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Yeah, you won. Not sure how you could be unsure about winning a trade like that.

 
finfansteve said:
I guess maybe I just like JG a lot and think he can bounce back but in a dynasty league I took the surer thing (and younger) IMO
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I own Josh Gordon and have since his sophomore year.  I love the idea of what he could do on the field, but you traded for a sure fire WR1 and as recently as last year was ranked as a top 3 dynasty asset.

 
smbkrypt24 said:
I own Josh Gordon and have since his sophomore year.  I love the idea of what he could do on the field, but you traded for a sure fire WR1 and as recently as last year was ranked as a top 3 dynasty asset.
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I’m happy I made the trade I’m just wondering how it’s all gonna play out in this and coming years

 
Chaka said:
Being the best WR on the team will generate looks.

Everyone else is fighting for 2nd place.
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BTW this was not a facetious comment by me. I sincerely believe he is the clear #1 WR in this offense. I will not argue with those that want to tag it a 1A/1B situation with Landry (even if I don't necessarily agree). But by my estimation everyone is getting in line behind Gordon when looking at target distribution.

 
Chaka said:
BTW this was not a facetious comment by me. I sincerely believe he is the clear #1 WR in this offense. I will not argue with those that want to tag it a 1A/1B situation with Landry (even if I don't necessarily agree). But by my estimation everyone is getting in line behind Gordon when looking at target distribution.
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If I was a betting man I would say Landry receives more targets than Gordon. Tyrod is not someone who great field vision and will prefer the shorter routes that Landry is running. I am not buying that CLE puts Landry downfield much more especially when he is such a technician underneath. I would feel comfortable estimating that Landry ends up with at least 10% more targets over Gordon.

 
At this point, I personally think JG has turned it around.  Just my opinion, but it would surprise me to see him fail.  Funny that I feel just the opposite about Manziel.  It would surprise me to see Johnny succeed.  Hearing them talk, Johnny still seems to be saying the things people want to hear.  Gordon seems more clear on the reality of it all.  

 
daveR said:
At this point, I personally think JG has turned it around.  Just my opinion, but it would surprise me to see him fail.  Funny that I feel just the opposite about Manziel.  It would surprise me to see Johnny succeed.  Hearing them talk, Johnny still seems to be saying the things people want to hear.  Gordon seems more clear on the reality of it all.  
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I just chose to build around ab and Gordon in a dyno league I joined.  All in. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
If I was a betting man I would say Landry receives more targets than Gordon. Tyrod is not someone who great field vision and will prefer the shorter routes that Landry is running. I am not buying that CLE puts Landry downfield much more especially when he is such a technician underneath. I would feel comfortable estimating that Landry ends up with at least 10% more targets over Gordon.
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Landry will need every one of those targets to justify his inflated ADP.

 
King of the Jungle said:
If I was a betting man I would say Landry receives more targets than Gordon. Tyrod is not someone who great field vision and will prefer the shorter routes that Landry is running. I am not buying that CLE puts Landry downfield much more especially when he is such a technician underneath. I would feel comfortable estimating that Landry ends up with at least 10% more targets over Gordon.
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I think Tyrod will have no problem seeing Gordon running past people. Landry could be lost in the linebackers. I see one opening up the other depending on the defense. It should be pretty even target wise with Gordon having the TD edge.

 
To my Cleveland Browns and NFL family, I am reaching out to you all personally and letting you know that I am not only doing great physically but mentally as well. You will notice that I will not be in Cleveland for the start of training camp. Rest assured this too is a part of my overall health and treatment plan. I appreciate the awesome support I have received from teammates, friends, fans, and the Brown's organization. Just like you, I am excited to start the season and I have every intention of being ready and available to join my teammates soon to help bring winning football to our fans. With the help of the NFL, NFLPA, and the Browns’ organization, I have been able to utilize the resources available to me that will ensure my well-being on and off the field. By continuing to follow the plan set up by our medical director and his team and taking this time before this season starts, we believe it will help me maintain the progress I’ve made for not only today but for many years to come. Thank you all for your patience, love, and support! Go Browns!

Sincerely, Josh Gordon

 
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In a series of tweets, Josh Gordon said he will miss the start of training camp but has "every intention of being ready and available to join my teammates soon."

Gordon says the absence is "part of my overall health and treatment plan," suggesting this was always the plan. "By continuing to follow the plan set up by our medical director and his team and taking this time before this season starts," Gordon writes, "we believe it will help me maintain the progress I’ve made for not only today but for many years to come." While any absence is notable for a player with Gordon's history, there does not appear to be any reason for concern at this point.

 
Soulfly3 said:
In a series of tweets, Josh Gordon said he will miss the start of training camp but has "every intention of being ready and available to join my teammates soon."

Gordon says the absence is "part of my overall health and treatment plan," suggesting this was always the plan. "By continuing to follow the plan set up by our medical director and his team and taking this time before this season starts," Gordon writes, "we believe it will help me maintain the progress I’ve made for not only today but for many years to come." While any absence is notable for a player with Gordon's history, there does not appear to be any reason for concern at this point.
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Does anyone believe that there was a plan for him to be in treatment instead of training camp? If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you...

 
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