WR Julio Jones, Retired (2 Viewers)

[Fever in the Funkhouse]

I want to be on record as saying its absurd to be benching Julio, unless you have two top ten Wrs and Gordon.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I want to be on record as saying its absurd to be benching Julio, unless you have two top ten Wrs and Gordon.

Gordon, Hilton, Evans, ODB and Julio. Believe it or not. Think I'm gonna roll with the first three I mentioned.

Or not...

 

[althepostman]

What I'm seeing is the volatility and unpredictability of td's. Yes, the offense is bad, but we've seen good fantasy recievers come out of bad offenses all the time. If you knew at the beginning of the year that julio would have 1500 yards with an unknown number of td's, he would be a first round lock.... If he has two long td's tomorrow everyone will forget about this "down" stretch. Its called recency bias.

 

[sho nuff]

I want to be on record as saying its absurd to be benching Julio, unless you have two top ten Wrs and Gordon.

Gronk and Evans in a TD heavy league and TEs not required.

Though, the weather in Chicago has me worried.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

What I'm seeing is the volatility and unpredictability of td's. Yes, the offense is bad, but we've seen good fantasy recievers come out of bad offenses all the time. If you knew at the beginning of the year that julio would have 1500 yards with an unknown number of td's, he would be a first round lock.... If he has two long td's tomorrow everyone will forget about this "down" stretch. Its called recency bias.

It's also about lack of red zone opportunity. Julio has 8 red zone targets on the year. Roddy has 9. That's about 1/3 the opportunities the top WRs are getting.

If you mean like 80% of the season in your recency bias statement, I'm on board.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Hmmmm...

 

[Andrew74]

There's #1

 

[PhantomJB]

Now we can put this debate to bed.

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Finally!

 

[shader]

You guys are benching Julio? Good luck with that.

Considering things, yes. As of now I have Hopkins in over him. His #s have been better the past few weeks.Plus, I'm sure Haden will shadow him.

Good call

 

[VaTerp]

Matt Ryan really isnt that good.

 

[bigmarc27]

Matt Ryan really isnt that good.

He's got zero time to throw and SJax is garbage... all things considered, I think Matt Ryan is doing pretty well. He's not going to be an elite fantasy asset right now, but he's pretty good.

 

[VaTerp]

Matt Ryan really isnt that good.

He's got zero time to throw and SJax is garbage... all things considered, I think Matt Ryan is doing pretty well. He's not going to be an elite fantasy asset right now, but he's pretty good.

The line sucks but there have been plenty of times this season, and today specifically, where Ryan has had time and he's just been inaccurate with the football.

I've watched Ryan a lot the last three years for FF purposes. I purposely didnt say he sucks. He doesn't. But he's not that good either.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Matt Ryan really isnt that good.

He's got zero time to throw and SJax is garbage... all things considered, I think Matt Ryan is doing pretty well. He's not going to be an elite fantasy asset right now, but he's pretty good.

The line sucks but there have been plenty of times this season, and today specifically, where Ryan has had time and he's just been inaccurate with the football.

I've watched Ryan a lot the last three years for FF purposes. I purposely didnt say he sucks. He doesn't. But he's not that good either.

I would agree with this. He's a borderline top-10 NFL QB.

 

[steelers1080]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

 

[meatwad1]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

 

[steelers1080]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Gets a tough draw coming up against Arizona.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

You're probably right, but having Dez, julio, Gordon and ODB is not that unrealistic.

 

[lod01]

Matt Ryan really isnt that good.

He's got zero time to throw and SJax is garbage... all things considered, I think Matt Ryan is doing pretty well. He's not going to be an elite fantasy asset right now, but he's pretty good.

The line sucks but there have been plenty of times this season, and today specifically, where Ryan has had time and he's just been inaccurate with the football.

I've watched Ryan a lot the last three years for FF purposes. I purposely didnt say he sucks. He doesn't. But he's not that good either.

I would agree with this. He's a borderline top-10 NFL QB.

Part of the problem is that they are being handcuffed by some really stupid coaching. Like bigmarc27 said. SJackson sucks. He is now just a huge slow guy that is easily brought down. There is no chance for a 15 yard gain out of him barring a massive hole to run through. This team needs to wake up and start using Freeman the way Crowell is used, the way McKinnon is used, the way Bernard is used, the way Ellington is used. They sit their most explosive back on the bench.

 

[C & C]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

You're probably right, but having Dez, julio, Gordon and ODB is not that unrealistic.

Nope, I have the same set. Sat ODB yesterday. Can't see myself doing that going forward. No easy decision here in the next few weeks, but it's a good problem to have.

 

[shader]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

 

[JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

You're probably right, but having Dez, julio, Gordon and ODB is not that unrealistic.

Nope, I have the same set. Sat ODB yesterday. Can't see myself doing that going forward. No easy decision here in the next few weeks, but it's a good problem to have.

I can see having 3 out of the 4 but damn! Is your team very light on the RBs or what?

I'm a Jones owner; TY Hilton is my WR2, then I have a bunch of middling WRs fighting it out for WR3. Jones is a must-start for me...unfortunately.

I agree with the comment up-thread about bad coaching contributing.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

You're probably right, but having Dez, julio, Gordon and ODB is not that unrealistic.

Nope, I have the same set. Sat ODB yesterday. Can't see myself doing that going forward. No easy decision here in the next few weeks, but it's a good problem to have.

I can see having 3 out of the 4 but damn! Is your team very light on the RBs or what?

I'm a Jones owner; TY Hilton is my WR2, then I have a bunch of middling WRs fighting it out for WR3. Jones is a must-start for me...unfortunately.

I agree with the comment up-thread about bad coaching contributing.

Dez/Julio in rounds 1 and 2 and getting Gordon at the end of the draft and ODB at the end or on waivers seems perfectly realistic to me.

I am in a 12-team auction league where one owner has Demaryius, Dez, Jeffrey, and ODB.

 

[JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo]

Dez/Julio in rounds 1 and 2 and getting Gordon at the end of the draft and ODB at the end or on waivers seems perfectly realistic to me.

I am in a 12-team auction league where one owner has Demaryius, Dez, Jeffrey, and ODB.

I see. Gordon was scooped up relatively early in all my leagues

Anyway, yay Julio Jones, finally another TD. Shall I expected the next one on week 5 of 2015?

 

[Chaka]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

One of the worst types of comments leveled all too frequently on these boards.

 

[steelers1080]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

Haha, maybe. Drafted Dez in the first and Julio in the 2nd. Draft Gordon late. Picked up Bryant, Evans and OBJ on the Waiver Wire since people don't expect rookies to play that awesome in their first year.

And yes, light on RB. Got Ellington in the 3rd and starting a combo of Crowell/Hill/Mason. Playing Walker at TE. Went all in on WR.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

Haha, maybe. Drafted Dez in the first and Julio in the 2nd. Draft Gordon late. Picked up Bryant, Evans and OBJ on the Waiver Wire since people don't expect rookies to play that awesome in their first year.And yes, light on RB. Got Ellington in the 3rd and starting a combo of Crowell/Hill/Mason. Playing Walker at TE. Went all in on WR.

Drafted Julio, traded McCoy for Megatron, stashed Gordon and got ODB off waivers. Guys are a bit conservative in my main league and Julio dropped to bottom of round. Nelson was taken ahead for example.

 

[Dondante]

Julio - Draft

Sanders - Draft

Marshall - Trade

V Jackson - Trade

Beckham - Waivers

Sanu - Waivers

 

[lazyike]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

One of the worst types of comments leveled all too frequently on these boards.

No reason in any 12 team league you couldn't have these WRs on one team if you went WR/ WR the first 2 rounds. Gordon and Evans could be had in rounds 5-9 and M Bryant was on waivers in most leagues.

 

[steelers1080]

It's now official!!!

Matthew Berry has said he would take Odell Beckham over Julio Jones the rest of the way. Time to drop Julio people.

But seriously, now Julio is going to do amazing for the rest of the year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dez/Julio in rounds 1 and 2 and getting Gordon at the end of the draft and ODB at the end or on waivers seems perfectly realistic to me.

I am in a 12-team auction league where one owner has Demaryius, Dez, Jeffrey, and ODB.

I see. Gordon was scooped up relatively early in all my leagues

Anyway, yay Julio Jones, finally another TD. Shall I expected the next one on week 5 of 2015?

Based on his historical comps, you should expect another 2.4 touchdowns the rest of the way.

 

[cvnpoka]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

gordons snaps were not limited lol.

 

[steelers1080]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

gordons snaps were not limited lol.

He was in on fewer than 70%! That's gotta be limited compared to what he'll see the rest of the way.

Julio was in on 87%.

Mainly was jokingly refering to Schefter's report saying he'd be in on 20-30 snaps his first week back.

 

[Dondante]

What are we thinking at home vs Arizona?

 

[PhantomJB]

What are we thinking at home vs Arizona?

Megatron was only 5/58/0 against Peterson so my expectations are fairly low but I do think he will get targets.

 

[Sabertooth]

Going to be tough sledding for him. Not an ideal matchup.

 

[Dondante]

What are we thinking at home vs Arizona?

Megatron was only 5/58/0 against Peterson so my expectations are fairly low but I do think he will get targets.

That's a fair point. All these middling "studs" are driving me nuts down the stretch.

 

[Dondante]

Going to be tough sledding for him. Not an ideal matchup.

I agree. ARI has been averaging 26.3 FP against the past 5 weeks (PPR) - that's nearly 10 points lower than their season average (35.4). After a tough loss, on turf, with a weak opponent, I think the ARI defense struts a little bit this week and ATL gets blasted. Of course, I don't have much confidence in Stanton - even against ATL - so the game might not necessarily get out of hand. Either way I see Julio as a somewhat risky start this week. It's NEVER easy to bench guys like Julio, but this might be one of those weeks.

 

[Dizzy]

Going to be tough sledding for him. Not an ideal matchup.

I agree. ARI has been averaging 26.3 FP against the past 5 weeks (PPR) - that's nearly 10 points lower than their season average (35.4). After a tough loss, on turf, with a weak opponent, I think the ARI defense struts a little bit this week and ATL gets blasted. Of course, I don't have much confidence in Stanton - even against ATL - so the game might not necessarily get out of hand. Either way I see Julio as a somewhat risky start this week. It's NEVER easy to bench guys like Julio, but this might be one of those weeks.

Crazy right? That's 2014 in a nutshell... rookie WR's are scoring fantasy points at will, but Julio and Calvin are situational match-ups?

 

[mnmplayer]

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.


Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

This is just so bizarre to me. Before the season, all anyone can ever talk about is how consistency is king. Consistency consistency consistency, gotta go get yourself a consistent WR. And now we have a top-12 fantasy WR who is pretty much as consistent as is humanly possible, topping 9.8 fantasy points in every single contest in PPR scoring and exceeding 50 receiving yards in 21 straight games, (the second-longest streak in NFL history), and the talk is all about how "sure, but he's not going to blow up and win you any weeks, so he's barely any better than a WR3". Huh?

It seems that what guys really want is someone who will consistently blow up every week and win you games. That's awesome! But there are only a tiny handful of Antonio Browns or Demaryius Thomases or Jordy Nelsons to go around. As a Julio owner, I would rather he be performing like Antonio Brown, just like the owner of every single WR in fantasy football wishes that WR was performing like Antonio Brown. But at the end of the day, Julio Jones is a top-12 fantasy receiver and has been as consistent as they come, and from the way his owners talk about him, he might as well be a fantasy WR3.

I'd like more out of Julio Jones, and that's especially true in standard scoring leagues (where you're always going to be more at the mercy of weekly touchdown fluctuations). But he's been a top-12 WR in every scoring system. Why aren't we seeing 10-page threads filled with dire concern over Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, both of whom were drafted in a similar range and have underperformed by a greater amount, even in standard scoring? It just strikes me as weird how the tone in here has gotten so dire and negative over what really amounts to a slight underperformance that many indicators suggest is highly likely to regress over the final six weeks.

The gap in standard scoring between Dez and Julio has been decent (20 points, WR7 vs. WR12), but in other scoring systems they've been pretty neck-and-neck. In PPR, Dez has been WR7 to this point and Julio has been WR9. FBGs' staff leagues use a performance scoring that gives bonuses for 100-yard games, and Dez and Julio check in at WR8 and WR9. I play in a yardage-heavy scoring system that has Dez at 10th and Julio at 12th, about the equivalent of 4 points apart. FBGs' rest-of-year projections have Dez at WR10 and Julio at WR11 in all four scoring formats (standard, PPR, performance, yardage-heavy). Dez has a marginal edge in all scoring systems, but he was expected to- his ADP put him at the end of the first and Julio in the middle of the second. Yet everything in DezLand is all smiles and sunshine and everything in JulioWorld is all gloom and rain. It's just... I don't know. I don't really have a better word for it than "weird".

I guess maybe it's because Julio's big games came earlier in the year, and so we've sort of forgotten about them, or worse, we feel like he's trending downwards? Or maybe because Julio has a teammate who has done pretty well over the last four weeks, so it feels like someone is "stealing" his stats? I don't know. Weird.

What people want is a high floor with numerous blowup games mixed in.

ETA: I owned Julio last season for the first 6-7 games before his foot blew out. He was the #1 WR in the league so I think people wanted/expected more than just a low end WR1. I steered clear after the 2nd foot issue especially since he plays on artificial turf.

 

[Andrew74]

Two weeks in a row...

 

[cvnpoka]

the fbg insider "reception perception" article ripped on this guy pretty mercilessly. made him seem like a 2nd rate receiver that could only run some routes, and not even precisely. its plays like that which show why hes so worthwhile.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Julio Jones has 67/912/3 through 10 games. I wanted to put that into some sort of context, so I searched for every player since 1978 (i.e. "the 16-game era") who, through 10 games, (a) had at least 800 receiving yards, and (b) had at least 300 yards for every touchdown. I then excluded anyone who got injured in the final six games of the season. This left me with 8 names who, collectively, averaged 65/950/2.6 through 10 games- strikingly similar to Jones' own numbers to this point.
Over the final 6 games of the season, those 8 players averaged 37.1 receptions, 506 yards, and 3.4 touchdowns. If Julio matches that production the rest of the way, he'll finish with 104/1418/6.4 receiving. Not a shabby season by any stretch of the imagination. That would have been good for an 8th-place fantasy finish last year, just ahead of Alshon Jeffery. Which isn't really that surprising, given that Julio Jones has already been the #9 fantasy receiver so far this year in PPR leagues, (technically he ranks 10th, but Benjamin is just fractions of a point ahead of him and has played in one more game).

How does that finish compare to, say, a Brandon Marshall-type? Marshall has just 586 yards through 10 games, but he has a whopping 8 touchdowns. To find comparable players, I searched for guys since 1978 who, through 10 games, had at least 500 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, but were averaging 75 yards or fewer per touchdown scored. Once again, I trimmed everyone who missed time in the final six games. The list was also dominated by tight ends, so I removed them to get a better apples-to-apples comparison.

That left me with 9 names. These 9 players averaged 52/741/11.3 over the first 10 games of the season. Basically, they lagged behind the Julio comps in receptions and yards, but absolutely dominated them in touchdowns scored (nearly 9 more touchdowns per player). How did this group of players do over the final 6 games of the season? Well, they averaged 27/394/3.6 receiving the rest of the way.

Let's highlight that one more time just for emphasis. The "touchdown heavy" receivers outscored the "yardage heavy" receivers with 11.3 touchdowns vs. 2.6 touchdowns over the first 10 games of the season, but over the final six games of the season both groups scored a nearly identical number of touchdowns (3.4 vs. 3.6). Over the first 10 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 193.9 fantasy points in PPR and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 175.6 fantasy points in PPR- an 18 point advantage for the touchdown guys. Over the final 6 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 88.0 fantasy points and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 107.9 fantasy points- a 20 point advantage for the yardage guys. And I didn't even mention the fact that the only reason the TD-heavy group even did as well as they did is because their ranks included 2007 Randy Moss and 1984 Mark Clayton, both of whom set the NFL receiving TD record while playing for a QB who was busy setting the NFL passing TD record.

In other words- oh hey, it turns out that "regression to the mean" is a real thing after all! Who knew? It sucks that Julio Jones hasn't scored many TDs so far, but we shouldn't take that as evidence that he's likely to continue struggling to score TDs going forward.

At the time of this post:

Brandon Marshall- 8 touchdowns

Julio Jones- 3 touchdowns

Since this post:

Brandon Marshall- 0 touchdowns

Julio Jones- 2 touchdowns and counting

#RegressionIsReal #TouchdownsFollowYards

 

[slackjawedyokel]

Julio Jones has 67/912/3 through 10 games. I wanted to put that into some sort of context, so I searched for every player since 1978 (i.e. "the 16-game era") who, through 10 games, (a) had at least 800 receiving yards, and (b) had at least 300 yards for every touchdown. I then excluded anyone who got injured in the final six games of the season. This left me with 8 names who, collectively, averaged 65/950/2.6 through 10 games- strikingly similar to Jones' own numbers to this point.

Over the final 6 games of the season, those 8 players averaged 37.1 receptions, 506 yards, and 3.4 touchdowns. If Julio matches that production the rest of the way, he'll finish with 104/1418/6.4 receiving. Not a shabby season by any stretch of the imagination. That would have been good for an 8th-place fantasy finish last year, just ahead of Alshon Jeffery. Which isn't really that surprising, given that Julio Jones has already been the #9 fantasy receiver so far this year in PPR leagues, (technically he ranks 10th, but Benjamin is just fractions of a point ahead of him and has played in one more game).

How does that finish compare to, say, a Brandon Marshall-type? Marshall has just 586 yards through 10 games, but he has a whopping 8 touchdowns. To find comparable players, I searched for guys since 1978 who, through 10 games, had at least 500 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, but were averaging 75 yards or fewer per touchdown scored. Once again, I trimmed everyone who missed time in the final six games. The list was also dominated by tight ends, so I removed them to get a better apples-to-apples comparison.

That left me with 9 names. These 9 players averaged 52/741/11.3 over the first 10 games of the season. Basically, they lagged behind the Julio comps in receptions and yards, but absolutely dominated them in touchdowns scored (nearly 9 more touchdowns per player). How did this group of players do over the final 6 games of the season? Well, they averaged 27/394/3.6 receiving the rest of the way.

Let's highlight that one more time just for emphasis. The "touchdown heavy" receivers outscored the "yardage heavy" receivers with 11.3 touchdowns vs. 2.6 touchdowns over the first 10 games of the season, but over the final six games of the season both groups scored a nearly identical number of touchdowns (3.4 vs. 3.6). Over the first 10 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 193.9 fantasy points in PPR and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 175.6 fantasy points in PPR- an 18 point advantage for the touchdown guys. Over the final 6 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 88.0 fantasy points and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 107.9 fantasy points- a 20 point advantage for the yardage guys. And I didn't even mention the fact that the only reason the TD-heavy group even did as well as they did is because their ranks included 2007 Randy Moss and 1984 Mark Clayton, both of whom set the NFL receiving TD record while playing for a QB who was busy setting the NFL passing TD record.

In other words- oh hey, it turns out that "regression to the mean" is a real thing after all! Who knew? It sucks that Julio Jones hasn't scored many TDs so far, but we shouldn't take that as evidence that he's likely to continue struggling to score TDs going forward.

At the time of this post:

Brandon Marshall- 8 touchdowns

Julio Jones- 3 touchdowns

Since this post:

Brandon Marshall- 0 touchdowns

Julio Jones- 2 touchdowns and counting

#RegressionIsReal #TouchdownsFollowYards

Absolutely. It comes around in time.

 

[Fever in the Funkhouse]

I heart julio

 

[shader]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

One of the worst types of comments leveled all too frequently on these boards.

evans, Beckham, Bryant, Gordon, Dez and Julio on one team? That league obviously stinks.

 

[shader]

Hopefully you guys didn't bench Julio today. This thread another reason to always buy studs low. When people start talking about benching proven studs, it's time to buy.

 

[RBM]

Shader, you were right and I was wrong. Julio scored more fantasy points than Gordon in standard scoring. He scored 0.8 more points. In PPR he scored 17.8 and Gordon scored 20, but in standard scoring Julio outscored him.

In Gordon's limited snaps he got 17 targets to Jones' 13. I have no qualms about starting Gordon going forward.

Also started Dez and Odell Beckham over Julio. He's still good, but he's not a must start with how the rookies have been playing this year.

Oh...you are going to start ODB, Gordon, and Dez ahead of Julio? What a tough call that is!!! What other rookies and all pros are you starting over him?

Most people do not have the option to have Julio, Dez, Gordon, and ODB on one squad. What you are highlighting has nothing to do with Julio's value relative to the rest of the league, rather it has more to do with your own specific situation regarding your team.

Going forward, Julio is a must start for almost everybody.,.I highly doubt most folks are wringing their hands over 16 points in ppr.

I've also started Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans over him, and more times than not that worked out great as well...

Sounds like you are in a cupcake fantasy league

One of the worst types of comments leveled all too frequently on these boards.

evans, Beckham, Bryant, Gordon, Dez and Julio on one team? That league obviously stinks.

What if it's a 20 yr dynasty where he focused on building a monster WR corps?

 

[steelers1080]

Now if only Roddy would get traded to another team or let go. The last 2 games he missed Julio got 26 and 28 points!