Adam Harstad
Moderator
Julio Jones had 12 consecutive games of 4 receptions and 60 yards, which was two shy of the NFL record. He finished today with 5/56. So close...
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WR Julio Jones, Retired (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Team Smokin'
- Start date
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
shader
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Matt Ryan has 1 second to throw before a minimum of one defender is on him. The OL is awful. Possibly the worst ever. The Falcons HQ has a sign out front, 'help wanted, big fat guys to protect Matt Ryan, no experience necessary'.
If Konz is lost for the season, he would join Sam Baker (knee), Mike Johnson (foot), Lamar Holmes (foot), and Hawley (ACL) as offensive linemen on injured reserve.
Julio won't be doing much this year.
If Konz is lost for the season, he would join Sam Baker (knee), Mike Johnson (foot), Lamar Holmes (foot), and Hawley (ACL) as offensive linemen on injured reserve.
Julio won't be doing much this year.
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ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
It will get better. Cake schedule upcoming.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm ready to watch Julio roast secondaries the rest of the year.
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
just offered julio and taliafero for shady
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
You realize McCoy has ONE single TD this year right? And they also are now using Polk as a shirt yard hammer.
Why the hell does Julio only have 5 red zone targets this year? they are having julio setting picks to get harry douglass open... if julio is one on one can the falcons not treat him like the cowboys do with dez bryant and ditch the play at the line and throw him the ball? given his size, athletic ability you'd think he'd be a redzone monster.
and yes, i can complain after a 120 yard receiving effort, because the TD's have not been there... but its criminal that he only has 5 red zone targets... yet stevan jackson has 18 red zone touches/targets (with only 4 of those turning in to TD's)
/rant
and yes, i can complain after a 120 yard receiving effort, because the TD's have not been there... but its criminal that he only has 5 red zone targets... yet stevan jackson has 18 red zone touches/targets (with only 4 of those turning in to TD's)
/rant
shader
Footballguy
Atlanta has terrible offensive coaching. Always have. Hopefully that changes this offseason.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Alonzo Mosely
Footballguy
I am stacked at WR (Calvin-Julio-Sanders-Bryant-Sanu-Gordon) and thin at RB (vereen-Joique-jennings-mason)
Was rejected in any case
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Traded him for Lamar Miller. How the mighty have fallen.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
tunamelt warrior
Footballguy
Not a fan of this trade either. I think the next few weeks will show it. If you held this long, why bail now?
Tanner9919
Footballguy
getting cold feet myself..Jones hasn't shown much the last 5-6 weeks, since the Giants game, really....I mean he's been decent, but not top 5-like..
takes intestinal fortitude to sit him, can't blame other people for wanting to do it..
takes intestinal fortitude to sit him, can't blame other people for wanting to do it..
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I'm in a league where I just have an embarrassment of riches at WR. I won't lay out whole roster but it includes three of the killer rookies producing and I'm getting Gordon back. Seriously considering sitting him but his pedigree gives me pause...
Courtweeks87
Footballguy
I'm in the same boat I have dez, odb, and him with gordon coming back looking to move one before the deadline try to get a top rb
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah redraft. I got Josh Gordon back and Antonio Brown too. Sjax just wasn't cutting it.
Fever in the Funkhouse
Footballguy
I agree he's not doing what we hoped he'd be doing, but he's still got a high weekly floor for a WR and that's not at all td dependent. He's 12th in ff points at the WR position in my league. He's a must start for all of us owners that don't have multiple other top ten Wrs rostered.
steelers1080
Footballguy
He was my first pick in our Dynasty startup this year and this coming week he'll be on my bench. He's not even in my top 5 of WRs at the moment.
Starting Dez, Evans, and Gordon over him and it seems like Martavis Bryant, OBJ, and Jordan Matthews have more upside at this time. Seems like Ryan doesn't like him/he looks short to Roddy all the time. Unless Julio is hurt and we don't know about it I don't know why they don't give him more jump ball opportunities in single coverage.
Starting Dez, Evans, and Gordon over him and it seems like Martavis Bryant, OBJ, and Jordan Matthews have more upside at this time. Seems like Ryan doesn't like him/he looks short to Roddy all the time. Unless Julio is hurt and we don't know about it I don't know why they don't give him more jump ball opportunities in single coverage.
steelers1080
Footballguy
In his last 5 games he has 1 over 7 pts...You guys are benching Julio?Good luck with that.
Dez has 4, Mike Evans has 5, OBJ has 4, Jordan Matthews has 3, Martavis Bryant has 4, I don't think it's that crazy to bench him especially with so many rookie WRs blowing up. He could have a monster game this week, but considering he has 1 game over 15 points all season, I don't feel that worried he'll do great.
I called it on here several weeks ago and haven't regretted it at all. Sure he's got the potential to explode one game, and then people will jump in and make fun of those who sat him. But with as poorly as he's played (he has a lot of drops), the crappiness of Ryan and the Falcons, etc. I don't think there's any problem at all with sitting him if you have other options. He'll have to pick it up and show consistency to get back into my lineup, unless the match up is good.In his last 5 games he has 1 over 7 pts...You guys are benching Julio?
Dez has 4, Mike Evans has 5, OBJ has 4, Jordan Matthews has 3, Martavis Bryant has 4, I don't think it's that crazy to bench him especially with so many rookie WRs blowing up. He could have a monster game this week, but considering he has 1 game over 15 points all season, I don't feel that worried he'll do great.
shader
Footballguy
In his last 5 games he has 1 over 7 pts...You guys are benching Julio?
Dez has 4, Mike Evans has 5, OBJ has 4, Jordan Matthews has 3, Martavis Bryant has 4, I don't think it's that crazy to bench him especially with so many rookie WRs blowing up. He could have a monster game this week, but considering he has 1 game over 15 points all season, I don't feel that worried he'll do great.
shader
Footballguy
Td's follow yards. Julio is on pace for a big year in receptions/yards. I'm sure the TD's will follow.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
In standard leagues the elite WRs are averaging about 14PPG. I've always used 10 points as a baseline for a quality start.
Here is Julio's breakdown this year.
Games less than 10 points: 6
Games 10-14 points: 3
Games 15 or more points: 1
He most definitely hasn't been a difference maker, and most weeks you have been losing to your opponents WR1 by starting him. As a point of reference the top 4 WRs (Brown, Nelson, Thomas, Maclin) average 5 games of 15 or more points each.
Here is Julio's breakdown this year.
Games less than 10 points: 6
Games 10-14 points: 3
Games 15 or more points: 1
He most definitely hasn't been a difference maker, and most weeks you have been losing to your opponents WR1 by starting him. As a point of reference the top 4 WRs (Brown, Nelson, Thomas, Maclin) average 5 games of 15 or more points each.
shader
Footballguy
You are looking at it all wrong. You are obviously in a standard scoring league. As such, your receivers are defined by TD's. You just can't predict TD's.
You need to look at overall yards and targets. The TD's will follow. TD's are quite fluky. I remember a year where Calvin was having a horrible time getting TD's. Would you bench him?
Julio could easily surpass 1500 yards this year. I'm sure TD's will follow.
Fever in the Funkhouse
Footballguy
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm not looking at it all wrong. I'm not benching him. I'm just stating the fact that he's largely been a disappointment in standard scoring leagues. I'm hoping the TDs start coming for him, but honestly it may just be a down year for Julio's TDs. Teams a doubling him in the red zone, and Ryan is looking elsewhere because of it.
thekidd2009
Footballguy
It's like Julio is the new Andre Johnson...he's racking up yards and targets but just can't find the endzone.
Dondante
Footballguy
Good post. It's actually a great comparison. I wouldn't bench Andre in his prime either (well there was that one time when he went against Revis in his prime, but I digress).
shader
Footballguy
It's very difficult to put up 1400 yards and only get 3-5 TD's. It's incredibly abnormal.
So when evaluating Julio, I'd completely erase the first 10 games of this season from your memory in terms of TD's. That part of the season is over.
Ask yourself:
Is Julio getting enough targets? Yes
Is Julio getting enough yards? Yes
Is the offense historically bad or does the offense have severe trouble scoring? No
As such, I'd view the first 10 games as an aberration and expect Julio to score TD's that are more in line with what a guy that gets 1400-1600 yards would normally achieve.
At this point, on Nov 19, what Julio has done (in terms of td's) to this point is not relevant at all. What is relevant is whether he will score more in the future?
I'd rather bank on him getting TD's, than Martavis, who had like 5 TD's in 3 weeks on about 15 total targets...which is clearly a major aberration.
So when evaluating Julio, I'd completely erase the first 10 games of this season from your memory in terms of TD's. That part of the season is over.
Ask yourself:
Is Julio getting enough targets? Yes
Is Julio getting enough yards? Yes
Is the offense historically bad or does the offense have severe trouble scoring? No
As such, I'd view the first 10 games as an aberration and expect Julio to score TD's that are more in line with what a guy that gets 1400-1600 yards would normally achieve.
At this point, on Nov 19, what Julio has done (in terms of td's) to this point is not relevant at all. What is relevant is whether he will score more in the future?
I'd rather bank on him getting TD's, than Martavis, who had like 5 TD's in 3 weeks on about 15 total targets...which is clearly a major aberration.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
Julio Jones has 67/912/3 through 10 games. I wanted to put that into some sort of context, so I searched for every player since 1978 (i.e. "the 16-game era") who, through 10 games, (a) had at least 800 receiving yards, and (b) had at least 300 yards for every touchdown. I then excluded anyone who got injured in the final six games of the season. This left me with 8 names who, collectively, averaged 65/950/2.6 through 10 games- strikingly similar to Jones' own numbers to this point.
Over the final 6 games of the season, those 8 players averaged 37.1 receptions, 506 yards, and 3.4 touchdowns. If Julio matches that production the rest of the way, he'll finish with 104/1418/6.4 receiving. Not a shabby season by any stretch of the imagination. That would have been good for an 8th-place fantasy finish last year, just ahead of Alshon Jeffery. Which isn't really that surprising, given that Julio Jones has already been the #9 fantasy receiver so far this year in PPR leagues, (technically he ranks 10th, but Benjamin is just fractions of a point ahead of him and has played in one more game).
How does that finish compare to, say, a Brandon Marshall-type? Marshall has just 586 yards through 10 games, but he has a whopping 8 touchdowns. To find comparable players, I searched for guys since 1978 who, through 10 games, had at least 500 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, but were averaging 75 yards or fewer per touchdown scored. Once again, I trimmed everyone who missed time in the final six games. The list was also dominated by tight ends, so I removed them to get a better apples-to-apples comparison.
That left me with 9 names. These 9 players averaged 52/741/11.3 over the first 10 games of the season. Basically, they lagged behind the Julio comps in receptions and yards, but absolutely dominated them in touchdowns scored (nearly 9 more touchdowns per player). How did this group of players do over the final 6 games of the season? Well, they averaged 27/394/3.6 receiving the rest of the way.
Let's highlight that one more time just for emphasis. The "touchdown heavy" receivers outscored the "yardage heavy" receivers with 11.3 touchdowns vs. 2.6 touchdowns over the first 10 games of the season, but over the final six games of the season both groups scored a nearly identical number of touchdowns (3.4 vs. 3.6). Over the first 10 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 193.9 fantasy points in PPR and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 175.6 fantasy points in PPR- an 18 point advantage for the touchdown guys. Over the final 6 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 88.0 fantasy points and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 107.9 fantasy points- a 20 point advantage for the yardage guys. And I didn't even mention the fact that the only reason the TD-heavy group even did as well as they did is because their ranks included 2007 Randy Moss and 1984 Mark Clayton, both of whom set the NFL receiving TD record while playing for a QB who was busy setting the NFL passing TD record.
In other words- oh hey, it turns out that "regression to the mean" is a real thing after all! Who knew? It sucks that Julio Jones hasn't scored many TDs so far, but we shouldn't take that as evidence that he's likely to continue struggling to score TDs going forward.
shader
Footballguy
You totally missed the point. The TD's that have already been scored are in the past and are a poor indicator of future TD's.
There's no value in rostering a guy who did well 3 weeks ago. You are looking for who will do well in weeks 12-17
