WR Julio Jones, Retired (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

Or we could decide to just keep in the guys we know have been scoring TD's, right?

You totally missed the point. The TD's that have already been scored are in the past and are a poor indicator of future TD's.

There's no value in rostering a guy who did well 3 weeks ago. You are looking for who will do well in weeks 12-17

Agree.

Shader, refer to it as the "Brandon oliver synopsis". It may hit home with people a bit better.

The past is the past. What happened, happened. But just like Hurns big Week 1, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

TDs are the most movable and unpredictable blips on any fantasy radar so even if a guy like Calvin only has 5 one year (that's happened, hasn't it?) or a guy like Andre Johnson routinely has few, it's still better to work off the "known". By doing that you see the targets, you see the yards that are piled up, you see the numbers of catches that are caught, and, like Calvin and Andre, you end up with top 10 years sometimes that turn into runaway top 2-3 years when the TDs come.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Or we could decide to just keep in the guys we know have been scoring TD's, right?

The guys who we know have been scoring TDs averaged fewer fantasy points going forward than the guys who were getting lots of yards but were not scoring TDs.

So while we could, in fact, decide to just keep them in... historically it hasn't paid off very well.

Nut graf:

Over the first 10 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 193.9 fantasy points in PPR and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 175.6 fantasy points in PPR- an 18 point advantage for the touchdown guys. Over the final 6 games of the season, the "touchdown-heavy" comps averaged 88.0 fantasy points and the "yardage-heavy" comps averaged 107.9 fantasy points- a 20 point advantage for the yardage guys.

 

[shader]

Or we could decide to just keep in the guys we know have been scoring TD's, right?

You totally missed the point. The TD's that have already been scored are in the past and are a poor indicator of future TD's.

There's no value in rostering a guy who did well 3 weeks ago. You are looking for who will do well in weeks 12-17

Agree.

Shader, refer to it as the "Brandon oliver synopsis". It may hit home with people a bit better.

The past is the past. What happened, happened. But just like Hurns big Week 1, it doesn't necessarily mean anything.

TDs are the most movable and unpredictable blips on any fantasy radar so even if a guy like Calvin only has 5 one year (that's happened, hasn't it?) or a guy like Andre Johnson routinely has few, it's still better to work off the "known". By doing that you see the targets, you see the yards that are piled up, you see the numbers of catches that are caught, and, like Calvin and Andre, you end up with top 10 years sometimes that turn into runaway top 2-3 years when the TDs come.

Andre is a unique case. Here is a guy that has always had the talent and the targets. But he's never consistently scored TD's. In fact, he's always been pretty poor at it. He had a four year stretch where he had 8,8,9,8 but aside from that, he's struggled to get TD's.

I'd claim that's due to a poor offense and an exceptionally poor QB situation for most of his career.

I'd like to come up with some type of system that ranks WR's on the following:

Talent

Targets

Overall Offense

Talent: How talented is the particular WR. Talent is obviously huge

Targets: All WR's need targets. Targets are the lifeblood of a WR that puts up huge stats. When Josh Gordon went off last year, his targets spiked to huge levels.

Overall Offense: Jeremy Maclin has a great offensive situation, and he's getting targets. His talent isn't top 5, but he is talented, and the other two categories are allowing him to have a huge year.

If I use the above three categories, I'd be really high on Julio right now, and I'd be extremely low on someone like Martavis Bryant...who isn't proven to be super talented, and who frankly isn't getting a lot of targets. Yeah he's on a good offensive team, but he just won't keep up his production unless his targets increase. With Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, there is little reason to think his targets will increase.

 

[steelers1080]

My main point is, there are people producing better than Julio right now. The team is afraid to get him the ball in the red zone whenever he's double covered. http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/58605/dirk-koetter-defenses-keep-julio-jones-from-fade-routes-in-red-zone

Their offensive coordinator is basically using Julio as a double coverage decoy and going to Roddy and now possibly to the TE instead of giving Julio a shot.

This weekend I'm playing Gordon over Julio and I don't think I'll regret it. If Julio outscores Gordon I'll come back and eat some crow. Also playing Mike Evans and Dez over him since they've been much more consistent producers over the last couple weeks. Yes it has been due to TDs, but they're getting more targets in the red zone and have more deep ball opportunities. The longest pass Julio caught last week was 11 yards.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Yeah I'd almost never bench a stud like Julio but I'm really struggling with Julio vs. Evans this week.

 

[shader]

My main point is, there are people producing better than Julio right now. The team is afraid to get him the ball in the red zone whenever he's double covered. http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/58605/dirk-koetter-defenses-keep-julio-jones-from-fade-routes-in-red-zone

Their offensive coordinator is basically using Julio as a double coverage decoy and going to Roddy and now possibly to the TE instead of giving Julio a shot.

This weekend I'm playing Gordon over Julio and I don't think I'll regret it. If Julio outscores Gordon I'll come back and eat some crow. Also playing Mike Evans and Dez over him since they've been much more consistent producers over the last couple weeks. Yes it has been due to TDs, but they're getting more targets in the red zone and have more deep ball opportunities. The longest pass Julio caught last week was 11 yards.

This always happens. I guarantee Mike Evans will start seeing an extremely high amount of attention from defenses in the next 2-3 weeks. That will open up things for Vincent Jackson.

If Julio starts getting doubled and Roddy steps up, defenses will adjust. That's the natural ebb and flow of a season.

I do agree there are certain scenarios where teams are more likely to go to certain guys in the endzone. But I don't see Julio being an outlier either way. I think he's in an offense/situation where he shoudl be about a 10TD guy for the year. That kind of average is what I'd predict for him the rest of the way.

 

[shader]

Yeah I'd almost never bench a stud like Julio but I'm really struggling with Julio vs. Evans this week.

Evans is ripe for a down game. BUT, isn't there a way you can start both?? If your league is that shallow, get in some deeper leagues. That's rough.

 

[dcgangstas]

Yeah I'd almost never bench a stud like Julio but I'm really struggling with Julio vs. Evans this week.

You shouldn't.

Julio will draw Joe Haden in Week 12, while a red-hot MIke Evans should savage a suspect Bear secondary.

Seems like a no-brainer to me.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Yeah I'd almost never bench a stud like Julio but I'm really struggling with Julio vs. Evans this week.

Evans is ripe for a down game. BUT, isn't there a way you can start both?? If your league is that shallow, get in some deeper leagues. That's rough.

It's a 14 team dynasty league where we can start 4 WR's and I have three other stud WR's plus these two. It's just how I've built my team over the years. My best RB is FJax, for instance.

 

[Bolebuns]

Yeah I'd almost never bench a stud like Julio but I'm really struggling with Julio vs. Evans this week.

Who will Haden cover? Julio or Roddy?

 

[AB in DC]

I wouldn't worry about Joe Haden. Cleveland has not been especially strong against #1 WRs this year.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

[shader]

I wouldn't worry about Joe Haden. Cleveland has not been especially strong against #1 WRs this year.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

Yeah I'm not getting the worry over Haden. He's not a lockdown corner. Ryan Mallett just had a very good game against the Brownies.

 

[iamkoza]

hopefully this illness is minor

 

[steelers1080]

Andre Johnson and Hopkins got 7 and 8 pts respectively, they didn't really blow it up against the Browns last week.

Whereas, K. Benjamin got 109 and a TD vs the falcons last week. Gordon seems to be in a similar situation, IE the only receiving option. Again, I'll come admit I was wrong if I am, but I think Gordon outplays Julio this week in Fantasy.

 

[chad in Indy]

My disappointment has been his lack of use in the redzone.

 

[zed2283]

I didn't really miss the point. The conclusion was 3.4 touchdowns vs. 3.6. So no difference. Slightly higher for the TD guys. And the yardage guys averaged less than 1 ppg more by yardage in standard scoring leagues. Not much.

 

[SproutDaddy]

You guys are benching Julio? Good luck with that.

Considering things, yes. As of now I have Hopkins in over him. His #s have been better the past few weeks.Plus, I'm sure Haden will shadow him.

 

[GreenBaySnackers]

Emmanuel Sanders had 0 touchdowns his first 5 weeks this year, followed by 7 his next 5 weeks. If you have another WR1 like Evans on your bench then pick whichever you want, but no one should be benching him for a mediocre tallent.

 

[althepostman]

I don't have the stats but it seems like he's been tackled inside the 5 a few times.... Calvin Johnson 2012-esque

 

[Adam Harstad]

I didn't really miss the point. The conclusion was 3.4 touchdowns vs. 3.6. So no difference. Slightly higher for the TD guys. And the yardage guys averaged less than 1 ppg more by yardage in standard scoring leagues. Not much.

Not much, but not nothing. By my math, it's the difference between 10.2 ppg and 11.8 ppg, which this year would be the difference between a T.Y. Hilton or Mike Evans and a Mohammad Sanu or Alshon Jeffery. It's not an insignificant difference. Especially considering that the "yardage-heavy" guys, as a group, were outproduced quite handily by the "touchdown-heavy" guys, as a group, through ten games. If we identified a group of WR1s who were going to start scoring like WR2s down the stretch, and another group of WR2s that were going to start scoring like WR1s down the stretch, you would think that would be actionable intelligence.

 

[C & C]

My concern is he's only gone over 70 yards once in the last 5 games, yet he was never under 80 in the first 5 games. He's also averaging 2 less targets a game in the last 5 compared to the first 5 (to be fair he has 11 targets the last 2 weeks).

I haven't watched the Falcons enough to know, but I'm concerned they are not using him the same as they have been. I think he's a nervous start, but you have to put him out there unless you are lucky enough to have some great options. I have to sit one of Julio/Gordon/Beckham. I've changed my mind every day this week.

 

[steelers1080]

Is he possibly hurt and we don't know about it?

Could his foot injury from last year be bothering him, or perhaps something with his hands/wrists? Trying to figure out why he has a ton of drops/isn't making the catches he did in previous years.

 

[zed2283]

I didn't really miss the point. The conclusion was 3.4 touchdowns vs. 3.6. So no difference. Slightly higher for the TD guys. And the yardage guys averaged less than 1 ppg more by yardage in standard scoring leagues. Not much.

Not much, but not nothing. By my math, it's the difference between 10.2 ppg and 11.8 ppg, which this year would be the difference between a T.Y. Hilton or Mike Evans and a Mohammad Sanu or Alshon Jeffery. It's not an insignificant difference. Especially considering that the "yardage-heavy" guys, as a group, were outproduced quite handily by the "touchdown-heavy" guys, as a group, through ten games. If we identified a group of WR1s who were going to start scoring like WR2s down the stretch, and another group of WR2s that were going to start scoring like WR1s down the stretch, you would think that would be actionable intelligence.

I didn't run the numbers, but I think the TD guys were 3.6 touchdowns vs. the yardage guys at 3.4. So the difference should be less than 1 ppg (not 1.6). Well, I guess that depends on how many yards/point. I was assuming 20 yd/pt.

 

[iamkoza]

My concern is he's only gone over 70 yards once in the last 5 games, yet he was never under 80 in the first 5 games. He's also averaging 2 less targets a game in the last 5 compared to the first 5 (to be fair he has 11 targets the last 2 weeks).

I haven't watched the Falcons enough to know, but I'm concerned they are not using him the same as they have been. I think he's a nervous start, but you have to put him out there unless you are lucky enough to have some great options. I have to sit one of Julio/Gordon/Beckham. I've changed my mind every day this week.

game #4 against Minn is where the entire Falcons o-line got hurt.... His o-line is still pretty bad and ryan has zero pocket mobility.... So once the d-line moves ryan off his spot int he pocket i dont think he has the arm strength nor is he willing to chuck it deep while on the move.

another alarming item of concern is Julio only has 6 red zone targets on the season.... for reference chicago's top 2 WR's have a total of 30 on the year.

I have no choice but to play Julio... but i'm not overly optimistic he hits pay dirt this game either.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I didn't really miss the point. The conclusion was 3.4 touchdowns vs. 3.6. So no difference. Slightly higher for the TD guys. And the yardage guys averaged less than 1 ppg more by yardage in standard scoring leagues. Not much.

Not much, but not nothing. By my math, it's the difference between 10.2 ppg and 11.8 ppg, which this year would be the difference between a T.Y. Hilton or Mike Evans and a Mohammad Sanu or Alshon Jeffery. It's not an insignificant difference. Especially considering that the "yardage-heavy" guys, as a group, were outproduced quite handily by the "touchdown-heavy" guys, as a group, through ten games. If we identified a group of WR1s who were going to start scoring like WR2s down the stretch, and another group of WR2s that were going to start scoring like WR1s down the stretch, you would think that would be actionable intelligence.

I didn't run the numbers, but I think the TD guys were 3.6 touchdowns vs. the yardage guys at 3.4. So the difference should be less than 1 ppg (not 1.6). Well, I guess that depends on how many yards/point. I was assuming 20 yd/pt.

"Standard scoring" = 1 point per 10 yards.

 

[Dizzy]

another alarming item of concern is Julio only has 6 red zone targets on the season.... for reference chicago's top 2 WR's have a total of 30 on the year.

HOLY



And then he's had the "drops" on top of that!

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Any word on his illness?

 

[Dondante]

Any word on his illness?

Apparently it's a severe case of the dropsies.

 

[Courtweeks87]

Traded him and gray for cobb. Ppr league I'm tired of waiting for this guy to show up. 10 points a week isn't cutting it from my top wr

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four]

Traded him and gray for cobb. Ppr league I'm tired of waiting for this guy to show up. 10 points a week isn't cutting it from my top wr

I'm currently trying to trade him for Cobb so I'm glad someone was successful.

 

[RBM]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

 

[zed2283]

I didn't really miss the point. The conclusion was 3.4 touchdowns vs. 3.6. So no difference. Slightly higher for the TD guys. And the yardage guys averaged less than 1 ppg more by yardage in standard scoring leagues. Not much.

Not much, but not nothing. By my math, it's the difference between 10.2 ppg and 11.8 ppg, which this year would be the difference between a T.Y. Hilton or Mike Evans and a Mohammad Sanu or Alshon Jeffery. It's not an insignificant difference. Especially considering that the "yardage-heavy" guys, as a group, were outproduced quite handily by the "touchdown-heavy" guys, as a group, through ten games. If we identified a group of WR1s who were going to start scoring like WR2s down the stretch, and another group of WR2s that were going to start scoring like WR1s down the stretch, you would think that would be actionable intelligence.

I didn't run the numbers, but I think the TD guys were 3.6 touchdowns vs. the yardage guys at 3.4. So the difference should be less than 1 ppg (not 1.6). Well, I guess that depends on how many yards/point. I was assuming 20 yd/pt.

"Standard scoring" = 1 point per 10 yards.

That used to be "performance scoring."

 

[Adam Harstad]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

 

[PhantomJB]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens yet many people can't comprehend/accept the randomness element.

 

[RBM]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

We definitely do. I don't see those guys ever going 10 weeks between 100 yard games. Green has played 6 games, probably not 100% in all of them. He has 100 yards in 3 of them and has scored in 4 of them. Thomas has 7 straight 100 yard games, and as many tds as Julio has rz targets. Dez only has 3 100 yard games out of 10, but he's scored in 7 of them. 8 tds this year. These guys are treated as studs and can win you weeks like studs. Julio, for this year, is not on these guys level. He's consistently average.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens.

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.

Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

 

[Alonzo Mosely]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens.

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.

Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

I drafted him at 2.08 (with Calvin at 1.05). I wouldn't say he is killing me. He is still WR10 (ppr/.1ppy), 41 points behind WR5(Sanders), 41 points of WR23 (Wallace).

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

The guys that he's often grouped with, like DT and Dez and Green always get theirs. Opposing Ds know it, but their teams make it a point of emphasis to get these guys fed. Ryan is no worse than Romo or Dalton.

I'm putting the problem on two things and *maybe* a third:

- Falcons line has been horrible, obviously.

- Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter could very well be the worst coach/OC combo in the entire league.

*-* Maybe Julio is not as aggressive as Dez and DT, and just not as good downfield as Green.

The last time Julio Jones was held below 50 receiving yards, Twinkie was still financially solvent. So far this season Julio ranks 4th in receptions and 8th in receiving yards. He ranks 12th in standard scoring and 9th in PPR. In his last 16 games, Julio has 119/1674/7 receiving. He's produced fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points just one time during that span, which came earlier this season when he faced the #1 passing defense in the NFL and put up... 9.8 points.

I think you and I have a pretty different vision of what "always get[ting] theirs" looks like. Because it sure looks to me like, low touchdown total or not, Julio Jones is always getting his. Sure, he may not have had any huge blowup games in a while, and the TDs are low (though as I keep pointing out, TDs are streaky and unpredictable). On the other hand, pretty sure Julio Jones isn't going to give you any games where he puts up 3 receptions for 23 yards on 10 targets, like Green just had against Cleveland two weeks ago. Or 4 receptions for 31 yards on 9 targets, like Demaryius had against Seattle. And while the touchdown was nice, Dez Bryant's 2/15/1 game against Arizona (on 10 targets) still produced fewer PPR points than any game Julio Jones has produced since a 3/56/0 game back in December of 2012.

Yes, he drops a lot of passes. PFF ranks him 33rd out of 44 WRs in drop rate. Let's put that into context, though. The following WRs currently have a worse drop rate than Julio Jones: Reggie Wayne, Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, and teammate Roddy White. Jordy Nelson ranks 31st. Demaryius, Dez, and Andre Johnson rank 26th, 27th, and 28th. Drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I've never before seen so much handwringing about a guy who is 3rd in targets, 4th in receptions, 8th in yards, 9th in fantasy points, and on a near-record streak of consistent performance. From the tone of this thread you'd think he'd been a borderline WR3 to this point of the season and not a solid fantasy WR1

Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens.

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.

Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

I drafted him at 2.08 (with Calvin at 1.05). I wouldn't say he is killing me. He is still WR10 (ppr/.1ppy), 41 points behind WR5(Sanders), 41 points of WR23 (Wallace).

He's been much better in PPR. No doubt.

 

[PhantomJB]

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.


Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens.

Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

Maybe I'm not understanding the general issue some people seem to have with Julio but the bolded parts are where I both agree and disagree.

I definitely agree that Julio has been a big disappointment to date (and I am one of those that drafted him in the second round).

However, I would disagree with your statement that a typical WR3 that your opponent trots out there is likely to outscore Julio in any given week going forward.

That's because IMO the conditions that make Julio a WR1 for a full season have not changed, in fact, those conditions have actually improved since he is on pace for a career year both in terms of recpts and yardage (107/1,459 and Ryan on pace for 27 TD's).

I agree that "the TD's will correct themselves over time," however, IMO "over time" could just as easily be inclusive of the ROS as not.

 

[Adam Harstad]

We definitely do. I don't see those guys ever going 10 weeks between 100 yard games. Green has played 6 games, probably not 100% in all of them. He has 100 yards in 3 of them and has scored in 4 of them. Thomas has 7 straight 100 yard games, and as many tds as Julio has rz targets. Dez only has 3 100 yard games out of 10, but he's scored in 7 of them. 8 tds this year. These guys are treated as studs and can win you weeks like studs. Julio, for this year, is not on these guys level. He's consistently average.

Huh? Where's this "10 weeks between 100 yard games" thing coming from? The longest Julio has gone without topping 100 yards this year was three games. In fact, getting yards is sort of Julio Jones' thing.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.


Dude, you're just going to bloody your forehead trying to convince people that Julio's lack of TD's has a large component of randomness to it. This situation is very similar to Calvin Johnson having 16 TD's in 2011 on 96 catches and then only 5 TD's on 122 catches in 2012. Sometimes it just happens.

Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

Maybe I'm not understanding the general issue some people seem to have with Julio but the bolded parts are where I both agree and disagree.

I definitely agree that Julio has been a big disappointment to date (and I am one of those that drafted him in the second round).

However, I would disagree with your statement that a typical WR3 that your opponent trots out there is likely to outscore Julio in any given week going forward.

That's because IMO the conditions that make Julio a WR1 for a full season have not changed, in fact, those conditions have actually improved since he is on pace for a career year both in terms of recpts and yardage (107/1,459 and Ryan on pace for 27 TD's).

I agree that "the TD's will correct themselves over time," however, IMO "over time" could just as easily be inclusive of the ROS as not.

You are speaking of the future, and I don't disagree. Julio Jones is still an elite WR, and going forward is likely to score more like one. However, for those of us in STANDARD leagues, despite his WR13 total on the season, he's been largely a disappointment for the reasons I outlined above.

 

[RBM]

We definitely do. I don't see those guys ever going 10 weeks between 100 yard games. Green has played 6 games, probably not 100% in all of them. He has 100 yards in 3 of them and has scored in 4 of them. Thomas has 7 straight 100 yard games, and as many tds as Julio has rz targets. Dez only has 3 100 yard games out of 10, but he's scored in 7 of them. 8 tds this year. These guys are treated as studs and can win you weeks like studs. Julio, for this year, is not on these guys level. He's consistently average.

Huh? Where's this "10 weeks between 100 yard games" thing coming from? The longest Julio has gone without topping 100 yards this year was three games. In fact, getting yards is sort of Julio Jones' thing.

Jeez...I posted without looking and figured the last one was the Tampa Thursday night game. Totally forgot the other 2. The guy has really annoyed me this year and that's what matters most, am I right??

 

[Adam Harstad]

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.


Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

This is just so bizarre to me. Before the season, all anyone can ever talk about is how consistency is king. Consistency consistency consistency, gotta go get yourself a consistent WR. And now we have a top-12 fantasy WR who is pretty much as consistent as is humanly possible, topping 9.8 fantasy points in every single contest in PPR scoring and exceeding 50 receiving yards in 21 straight games, (the second-longest streak in NFL history), and the talk is all about how "sure, but he's not going to blow up and win you any weeks, so he's barely any better than a WR3". Huh?

It seems that what guys really want is someone who will consistently blow up every week and win you games. That's awesome! But there are only a tiny handful of Antonio Browns or Demaryius Thomases or Jordy Nelsons to go around. As a Julio owner, I would rather he be performing like Antonio Brown, just like the owner of every single WR in fantasy football wishes that WR was performing like Antonio Brown. But at the end of the day, Julio Jones is a top-12 fantasy receiver and has been as consistent as they come, and from the way his owners talk about him, he might as well be a fantasy WR3.

I'd like more out of Julio Jones, and that's especially true in standard scoring leagues (where you're always going to be more at the mercy of weekly touchdown fluctuations). But he's been a top-12 WR in every scoring system. Why aren't we seeing 10-page threads filled with dire concern over Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, both of whom were drafted in a similar range and have underperformed by a greater amount, even in standard scoring? It just strikes me as weird how the tone in here has gotten so dire and negative over what really amounts to a slight underperformance that many indicators suggest is highly likely to regress over the final six weeks.

The gap in standard scoring between Dez and Julio has been decent (20 points, WR7 vs. WR12), but in other scoring systems they've been pretty neck-and-neck. In PPR, Dez has been WR7 to this point and Julio has been WR9. FBGs' staff leagues use a performance scoring that gives bonuses for 100-yard games, and Dez and Julio check in at WR8 and WR9. I play in a yardage-heavy scoring system that has Dez at 10th and Julio at 12th, about the equivalent of 4 points apart. FBGs' rest-of-year projections have Dez at WR10 and Julio at WR11 in all four scoring formats (standard, PPR, performance, yardage-heavy). Dez has a marginal edge in all scoring systems, but he was expected to- his ADP put him at the end of the first and Julio in the middle of the second. Yet everything in DezLand is all smiles and sunshine and everything in JulioWorld is all gloom and rain. It's just... I don't know. I don't really have a better word for it than "weird".

I guess maybe it's because Julio's big games came earlier in the year, and so we've sort of forgotten about them, or worse, we feel like he's trending downwards? Or maybe because Julio has a teammate who has done pretty well over the last four weeks, so it feels like someone is "stealing" his stats? I don't know. Weird.

 

[meatwad1]

I am pretty happy with Julio this year. As noted, he is a player who always scores some points. That is nice to have. I can easily think of many, many highly rated players this year who have flat out bombed. I also believe at least a few tds are coming, the best time for those will be in weeks 14 - 16. I have a feeling this thread will get bumped sometime in that time frame because he will be helping dudes win leagues.

 

[Dizzy]

I am pretty happy with Julio this year. As noted, he is a player who always scores some points. That is nice to have. I can easily think of many, many highly rated players this year who have flat out bombed. I also believe at least a few tds are coming, the best time for those will be in weeks 14 - 16. I have a feeling this thread will get bumped sometime in that time frame because he will be helping dudes win leagues.

Happy yes, but we could all be happier at this point. I think Julio was one of those WR's that was expected to challenge for WR #1 back in August... and to see him drifting around that WR #10-15 area is kind of deflating.

He hasn't hung a goose egg out there though... that's a good point.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I don't think anybody is saying there isn't some randomness to Julio's lack of TDs. I'm confident as a dynasty owner that he'll do fine over the long haul in the TD department.


Imagine yourself as somebody that plays standard scoring in a redraft league. Julio has scored between 5-11 points in 8 out of 10 weeks. The reality is that whatever guy your opponent is likely throwing out there as his WR3 is likely to match that or come close enough to not make much of a difference. As an example, Julio (13th in standard) has 14 more points on the season than Mike Wallace (22nd). Julio outscored Wallace 28-8 in week 3. Outside of that single week, Wallace has outscored Julio by 6 points. Most people spent a 2nd round pick on Julio. Wallace has just slightly over performed his 7th round ADP.

To put it another way, the difference between Julio and the average of the top 5 WRs is 46.5 points on the season. Guys scoring about 46 points less on the season that Julio? WR53 Taylor Gabriel, WR54 Markus Wheaton, WR55 Greg Jennings.

Julio has been a pretty big disappointment on the season in standard scoring leagues. The TDs will likely correct themselves over time. But to the guy that drafted him in RD2 this year that's not really helping.

This is just so bizarre to me. Before the season, all anyone can ever talk about is how consistency is king. Consistency consistency consistency, gotta go get yourself a consistent WR. And now we have a top-12 fantasy WR who is pretty much as consistent as is humanly possible, topping 9.8 fantasy points in every single contest in PPR scoring and exceeding 50 receiving yards in 21 straight games, (the second-longest streak in NFL history), and the talk is all about how "sure, but he's not going to blow up and win you any weeks, so he's barely any better than a WR3". Huh?

It seems that what guys really want is someone who will consistently blow up every week and win you games. That's awesome! But there are only a tiny handful of Antonio Browns or Demaryius Thomases or Jordy Nelsons to go around. As a Julio owner, I would rather he be performing like Antonio Brown, just like the owner of every single WR in fantasy football wishes that WR was performing like Antonio Brown. But at the end of the day, Julio Jones is a top-12 fantasy receiver and has been as consistent as they come, and from the way his owners talk about him, he might as well be a fantasy WR3.

I'd like more out of Julio Jones, and that's especially true in standard scoring leagues (where you're always going to be more at the mercy of weekly touchdown fluctuations). But he's been a top-12 WR in every scoring system. Why aren't we seeing 10-page threads filled with dire concern over Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, both of whom were drafted in a similar range and have underperformed by a greater amount, even in standard scoring? It just strikes me as weird how the tone in here has gotten so dire and negative over what really amounts to a slight underperformance that many indicators suggest is highly likely to regress over the final six weeks.

The gap in standard scoring between Dez and Julio has been decent (20 points, WR7 vs. WR12), but in other scoring systems they've been pretty neck-and-neck. In PPR, Dez has been WR7 to this point and Julio has been WR9. FBGs' staff leagues use a performance scoring that gives bonuses for 100-yard games, and Dez and Julio check in at WR8 and WR9. I play in a yardage-heavy scoring system that has Dez at 10th and Julio at 12th, about the equivalent of 4 points apart. FBGs' rest-of-year projections have Dez at WR10 and Julio at WR11 in all four scoring formats (standard, PPR, performance, yardage-heavy). Dez has a marginal edge in all scoring systems, but he was expected to- his ADP put him at the end of the first and Julio in the middle of the second. Yet everything in DezLand is all smiles and sunshine and everything in JulioWorld is all gloom and rain. It's just... I don't know. I don't really have a better word for it than "weird".

I guess maybe it's because Julio's big games came earlier in the year, and so we've sort of forgotten about them, or worse, we feel like he's trending downwards? Or maybe because Julio has a teammate who has done pretty well over the last four weeks, so it feels like someone is "stealing" his stats? I don't know. Weird.

I've always respected your opinion Adam. As I've mentioned numerous times here, I expect the TDs to Julio to normalize going forward. However, I think you are missing the point here that those of us in STANDARD leagues are trying to make.

Here is Julio's week by week finish.

Week 1 WR31

Week 2 WR9

Week 3 WR1

Week 4 WR36

Week 5 WR18

Week 6 WR49

Week 7 WR50

Week 8 WR43

Week 10 WR19

Week 11 WR45


Four out of ten weeks he's finished inside the top 30 WRs. I don't find that to be consistently an advantage in my lineup.

Look at the difference in the first three games versus the last seven.

Weeks 1-3. FF WR1 with 23/365/3

Weeks 4-11 FF WR34 with 44/547/0

Weeks 1-3 he averaged 8/122/1

Weeks 4-11 he averaged 6/78/0

So over the last couple of months he hasn't scored a TD, and he's averaging scoring me 7.8 points/game.

 

[althepostman]

He's on pace for 1500 yards...

 

[althepostman]

Weeks 4-11 he was tackled twice inside the 5 and once more inside the 10. There's your missing td's.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Julio's "pace" on the season isn't really that relevant. Atlanta was a totally different offense before the rash of O-line injuries they faced, and Julio's numbers have fallen accordingly. His pace over the last 5 games is pretty sobering, and considering his season long pace which includes the games where the Atlanta offense was strong is a bit like saying that Matt Ryan should be considered a top 5 QB going forward because he's "on pace" to throw for 4500 yards and 30 TDs.

The TDs will come, I'm sure. At least some of them will. But people acting like this is just some flukey thing where he's not catching the TD passes that Matt Ryan is throwing. Rather, the problem is that there just aren't as many TD passes to go around with the whole Atlanta offense struggling. Matt Ryan threw 10 TD passes in the first month of the season and has thrown only 7 since then. The whole Atlanta offense has struggled and I don't think most people are expecting a sudden turnaround on that. It could happen, sure, but as far as I know they're not getting any of those injured linemen back this year. Remember, this falloff is something that people foresaw coming (hence the "sell Matt Ryan" thread). It wasn't just random happenstance.

I'm lucky enough to own pretty much all of the tier 1 WRs across my four leagues. I'm significantly more confident headed into this week (and every week going forward) with Dez, Demaryius, and Green than I am in the league where I own Julio (who I wouldn't even consider the WR1 for my team currently with Emmanuel Sanders).

I'm also not sure how important it is that Julio's bad weeks are 4-58 instead of 3-23 or 3-48 when he has those bad weeks twice as often (or more, since he's trending heavily in that direction).

 

[Tanner9919]

I dont know, Browns coming off a BEATDOWN at the hands of the Texans, screams bounce back game for Cleveland..Atl is in disarray..