WR Julio Jones, Retired (2 Viewers)

[ConnSKINS26]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

 

[iamkoza]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

 

[humpback]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

 

[Chaka]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

 

[humpback]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

We already had this conversation last page so I won't rehash it all again, but this really isn't accurate. In any event, Shanny could be the 2nd worst in the league at utilizing a talent like Julio in the red zone and it would still be an upgrade over the 7 receptions he had there last season.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Put me down in the excited camp. I tend to view Julio's production being dragged down by a poor oline. The Falcons should be improved this year (not saying much, but at least allow Ryan a look downfield). Julio will also be a year removed from his injury. Great ADP right now.

 

[Chaka]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

We already had this conversation last page so I won't rehash it all again, but this really isn't accurate. In any event, Shanny could be the 2nd worst in the league at utilizing a talent like Julio in the red zone and it would still be an upgrade over the 7 receptions he had there last season.

Julio is going to get a ton of targets (we also know from Shanny Jr's history...and Shanny Sr. and Kubs) and for that reason alone he should be drafted as a top 5 WR (the argument could be made for top 3) but the fact remains that the Shanny coaching tree rarely produces double digit TDs for WRs. All too often you see the #2 or #3 TE or the FB sneaking out into the flat while the #1 WR is a decoy dragging double coverage over the middle of the end zone.

It's completely accurate (the numbers don't lie) but the important part is that it is not a 100% lock prediction of future returns. Mike McCarthy also has a history of criminally underutilizing his RBs in goal line situations but that didn't stop Lacy from scoring 13 TDs last year. It would be foolish to drop Julio out of the top 5 based upon one historical trend (throw in his injury history and maybe you could make a better argument) but that doesn't mean you shouldn't use that info to make your decision between him and, say, Dez or Antonio. It's more of a push between Julio and Demaryius for me because of Kubs and the fact that it seems like they are going to try and run a lot more in Denver this year (although I could easily see Manning audible to whatever the hell he wants to do near the goal line). I probably lean towards Julio over Demaryius right now but it's close.

 

[humpback]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

We already had this conversation last page so I won't rehash it all again, but this really isn't accurate. In any event, Shanny could be the 2nd worst in the league at utilizing a talent like Julio in the red zone and it would still be an upgrade over the 7 receptions he had there last season.

Julio is going to get a ton of targets (we also know from Shanny Jr's history...and Shanny Sr. and Kubs) and for that reason alone he should be drafted as a top 5 WR (the argument could be made for top 3) but the fact remains that the Shanny coaching tree rarely produces double digit TDs for WRs. All too often you see the #2 or #3 TE or the FB sneaking out into the flat while the #1 WR is a decoy dragging double coverage over the middle of the end zone.

It's completely accurate (the numbers don't lie) but the important part is that it is not a 100% lock prediction of future returns. Mike McCarthy also has a history of criminally underutilizing his RBs in goal line situations but that didn't stop Lacy from scoring 13 TDs last year. It would be foolish to drop Julio out of the top 5 based upon one historical trend (throw in his injury history and maybe you could make a better argument) but that doesn't mean you shouldn't use that info to make your decision between him and, say, Dez or Antonio. It's more of a push between Julio and Demaryius for me because of Kubs and the fact that it seems like they are going to try and run a lot more in Denver this year (although I could easily see Manning audible to whatever the hell he wants to do near the goal line). I probably lean towards Julio over Demaryius right now but it's close.

Andre Johnson has been in the NFL for 12 seasons. In the 2 seasons where he had Kyle Shanahan as his OC, 14.3% of his targets, 14.8% of his receptions, and 76.5% of his TDs came in the red zone. In the 10 seasons with anyone else as his OC, 10.1% of his targets, 8.5% of his receptions, and 61.7% of his TDs came in the red zone. As a comparison, Julio Jones last year had 6.7% of both his targets and receptions in the red zone to go along with 33.33% of his TDs.

You're right that the numbers don't lie, they just happen to say the polar opposite of what you're claiming.

 

[Chaka]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

We already had this conversation last page so I won't rehash it all again, but this really isn't accurate. In any event, Shanny could be the 2nd worst in the league at utilizing a talent like Julio in the red zone and it would still be an upgrade over the 7 receptions he had there last season.

Julio is going to get a ton of targets (we also know from Shanny Jr's history...and Shanny Sr. and Kubs) and for that reason alone he should be drafted as a top 5 WR (the argument could be made for top 3) but the fact remains that the Shanny coaching tree rarely produces double digit TDs for WRs. All too often you see the #2 or #3 TE or the FB sneaking out into the flat while the #1 WR is a decoy dragging double coverage over the middle of the end zone.

It's completely accurate (the numbers don't lie) but the important part is that it is not a 100% lock prediction of future returns. Mike McCarthy also has a history of criminally underutilizing his RBs in goal line situations but that didn't stop Lacy from scoring 13 TDs last year. It would be foolish to drop Julio out of the top 5 based upon one historical trend (throw in his injury history and maybe you could make a better argument) but that doesn't mean you shouldn't use that info to make your decision between him and, say, Dez or Antonio. It's more of a push between Julio and Demaryius for me because of Kubs and the fact that it seems like they are going to try and run a lot more in Denver this year (although I could easily see Manning audible to whatever the hell he wants to do near the goal line). I probably lean towards Julio over Demaryius right now but it's close.

Andre Johnson has been in the NFL for 12 seasons. In the 2 seasons where he had Kyle Shanahan as his OC, 14.3% of his targets, 14.8% of his receptions, and 76.5% of his TDs came in the red zone. In the 10 seasons with anyone else as his OC, 10.1% of his targets, 8.5% of his receptions, and 61.7% of his TDs came in the red zone. As a comparison, Julio Jones last year had 6.7% of both his targets and receptions in the red zone to go along with 33.33% of his TDs.

You're right that the numbers don't lie, they just happen to say the polar opposite of what you're claiming.

I really think you are splitting hairs here. I am calling Julio a top 5 WR at the minimum and am making an argument for him as #3. Everyone has their guy but to me Dez absolutely has to be the #1 WR off the board. He is a proven TD maker and Scott Linehan is his OC (check his coaching history because that guy forces the ball to his #1 WR in all situations). I personally have Antonio Brown as #2 because he has the proven production, it seems like Big Ben is radar locked onto him and he has Todd Haley as his OC (another guy with a strong history feeding his #1 WR in all situations). I guess if you are not completely sold on Antonio then I could see putting Julio over him but when I line up production + opportunity + history it all points to Antonio for me. The one area where Julio clearly has the advantage is physical measurables and that is not insignificant but, for me, it isn't enough to vault him over Antonio.

But if we are going to look at Andre Johnson in a vacuum the numbers also say 32 games & 17 TDs (8 & 9). Redzone <> goal line. My point has consistently been TD production not targets. I am completely confident Kyle will feed Julio early and often, I just worry that he gets cute around the goal line (which he does...early and often). Again that isn't to say that Julio won't get 10+ TDs, he very well might...heck his physical measurables are so dominant he should do that every year regardless of scheme. But it hasn't happened yet and it has never happened on a Kyle Shanahan coached (coordinated) team either.

 

[humpback]

Very excited about Julio this year. He needs to stay healthy so we can actually witness him reach these "on pace for" stat lines we've salivated about in recent years.

i read somewhere about julio's production during the middle of the season when white was limping around/out of the lineup is reason for concern.... that combined with no red zone usage as reasons he wont make the jump to the top 2/3 WR's. every year i expect him to make the jump to elite status but he hasnt made it there yet (who knows if not for the hip pointer last year he could have stayed hot and made it to WR2..

Not sure about "limping around", but in the two games that White missed, Julio went for 9/161/2 and 10/189/1.

His red zone usage was bizarre to say the least, but that's highly likely to improve with the new OC Shanahan.

You would think that but Shanny Jr (and Sr & Kubiak for that matter) likes to get cute around the endzone. They all have a long history of madly feeding their #1 WRs between the 20s and then using them as decoys when they get close to the end zone.

We already had this conversation last page so I won't rehash it all again, but this really isn't accurate. In any event, Shanny could be the 2nd worst in the league at utilizing a talent like Julio in the red zone and it would still be an upgrade over the 7 receptions he had there last season.

Julio is going to get a ton of targets (we also know from Shanny Jr's history...and Shanny Sr. and Kubs) and for that reason alone he should be drafted as a top 5 WR (the argument could be made for top 3) but the fact remains that the Shanny coaching tree rarely produces double digit TDs for WRs. All too often you see the #2 or #3 TE or the FB sneaking out into the flat while the #1 WR is a decoy dragging double coverage over the middle of the end zone.

It's completely accurate (the numbers don't lie) but the important part is that it is not a 100% lock prediction of future returns. Mike McCarthy also has a history of criminally underutilizing his RBs in goal line situations but that didn't stop Lacy from scoring 13 TDs last year. It would be foolish to drop Julio out of the top 5 based upon one historical trend (throw in his injury history and maybe you could make a better argument) but that doesn't mean you shouldn't use that info to make your decision between him and, say, Dez or Antonio. It's more of a push between Julio and Demaryius for me because of Kubs and the fact that it seems like they are going to try and run a lot more in Denver this year (although I could easily see Manning audible to whatever the hell he wants to do near the goal line). I probably lean towards Julio over Demaryius right now but it's close.

Andre Johnson has been in the NFL for 12 seasons. In the 2 seasons where he had Kyle Shanahan as his OC, 14.3% of his targets, 14.8% of his receptions, and 76.5% of his TDs came in the red zone. In the 10 seasons with anyone else as his OC, 10.1% of his targets, 8.5% of his receptions, and 61.7% of his TDs came in the red zone. As a comparison, Julio Jones last year had 6.7% of both his targets and receptions in the red zone to go along with 33.33% of his TDs.

You're right that the numbers don't lie, they just happen to say the polar opposite of what you're claiming.

I really think you are splitting hairs here. I am calling Julio a top 5 WR at the minimum and am making an argument for him as #3. Everyone has their guy but to me Dez absolutely has to be the #1 WR off the board. He is a proven TD maker and Scott Linehan is his OC (check his coaching history because that guy forces the ball to his #1 WR in all situations). I personally have Antonio Brown as #2 because he has the proven production, it seems like Big Ben is radar locked onto him and he has Todd Haley as his OC (another guy with a strong history feeding his #1 WR in all situations). I guess if you are not completely sold on Antonio then I could see putting Julio over him but when I line up production + opportunity + history it all points to Antonio for me. The one area where Julio clearly has the advantage is physical measurables and that is not insignificant but, for me, it isn't enough to vault him over Antonio.

But if we are going to look at Andre Johnson in a vacuum the numbers also say 32 games & 17 TDs (8 & 9). Redzone <> goal line. My point has consistently been TD production not targets. I am completely confident Kyle will feed Julio early and often, I just worry that he gets cute around the goal line (which he does...early and often). Again that isn't to say that Julio won't get 10+ TDs, he very well might...heck his physical measurables are so dominant he should do that every year regardless of scheme. But it hasn't happened yet and it has never happened on a Kyle Shanahan coached (coordinated) team either.

It isn't splitting hairs, I'm saying the polar opposite of what your are claiming about Shanahan is true. I suppose you're now changing from inside the red zone to "down by the goal line" because that data isn't readily available to refute it, but even if it was true, who cares? That's such a small percentage of plays and all that matters is the end results, which have been great under Kyle- he has a history of giving his #1 WRs their best fantasy seasons of their careers, and he leans on them more in the red zone than most other coordinators. While it's true that AJ didn't reach double digit TDs under him, he did set a career high in TDs and averaged .53 TDs/game under him vs. .34 TDs/game under everyone else.

Kyle Shanahan is clearly a positive for Julio in pretty much every way imaginable, but for some reason you are trying to throw cold water on it. If he's healthy, he's going to dominate. That doesn't mean everyone should take him over Bryant, but that isn't what this conversation is about.

 

[Chaka]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

You are very adept at ignoring his point.

 

[humpback]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

Again, AJ set his career high for TDs and averaged over 50% more TDs per game under Shanahan than he did under everyone else he's ever played for. How that is not a positive?

 

[Chaka]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

Again, AJ set his career high for TDs and averaged over 50% more TDs per game under Shanahan than he did under everyone else he's ever played for. How that is not a positive?

JFC IT IS A POSITIVE! My goodness what part about me ranking him as the #3 WR on the board has you so rankled?

And again AJ had 8 & 9 TDs on back-to-back seasons of 171 targets. Why does it bother you that I point out that despite high volume historically the WR#1 on teams that Shanny coordinates don't score double digit TDs? It's true for Shanny Jr., it's true for Kubiak and it's true for Shanny Sr. Who cares? Julio is going to be awesome I acknowledge that with my #3 WR ranking, what more do you want? Must I rank him as the mortal lock 1.1 player across all formats for you to let it go?

You don't need to agree but for goodness sake accept it and move on.

 

[Chaka]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

You are very adept at ignoring his point.

I am not ignoring anything. Expect high volume for Julio in Shanny's scheme. I get it and I agree (we disagree with how that usage will translate to TDs). Of course last year he had 163 targets with a 15.3 ypc. That's pretty heavy usage and pretty effective too.

Let's turn this towards projections instead of hump's disagreement with me. How many targets what kind of YPC and how many TDs do you expect for Julio this year?

I say 175 @ 15 YPC, which at his catch rate over the past 3 years (64%) should get him 1,680 yards on that volume and 10 TDs (double digit TDs just for you humpback).

 

[humpback]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

Again, AJ set his career high for TDs and averaged over 50% more TDs per game under Shanahan than he did under everyone else he's ever played for. How that is not a positive?

JFC IT IS A POSITIVE! My goodness what part about me ranking him as the #3 WR on the board has you so rankled?

And again AJ had 8 & 9 TDs on back-to-back seasons of 171 targets. Why does it bother you that I point out that despite high volume historically the WR#1 on teams that Shanny coordinates don't score double digit TDs? It's true for Shanny Jr., it's true for Kubiak and it's true for Shanny Sr. Who cares? Julio is going to be awesome I acknowledge that with my #3 WR ranking, what more do you want? Must I rank him as the mortal lock 1.1 player across all formats for you to let it go?

You don't need to agree but for goodness sake accept it and move on.

OMG, CAN'T YOU SEE THAT MY (ERRONEOUS) CRITICISMS OF HIM WERE MEANT TO BE A POSITIVE?!?!

I know you realize this and you're just going down with the ship at this point, but it isn't about an absolute number. AJ had his best two seasons under Kyle (overall and in terms of TDs). That's a very good thing, regardless of whether or not he hit your magical "double digit" TD mark, which Julio has already done. If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

 

[RBM]

My position always has been and always will be TDs. Nothing has changed about that.

And calling him the #3 WR out there is not throwing cold water on anything.

Again, AJ set his career high for TDs and averaged over 50% more TDs per game under Shanahan than he did under everyone else he's ever played for. How that is not a positive?

JFC IT IS A POSITIVE! My goodness what part about me ranking him as the #3 WR on the board has you so rankled?And again AJ had 8 & 9 TDs on back-to-back seasons of 171 targets. Why does it bother you that I point out that despite high volume historically the WR#1 on teams that Shanny coordinates don't score double digit TDs? It's true for Shanny Jr., it's true for Kubiak and it's true for Shanny Sr. Who cares? Julio is going to be awesome I acknowledge that with my #3 WR ranking, what more do you want? Must I rank him as the mortal lock 1.1 player across all formats for you to let it go?

You don't need to agree but for goodness sake accept it and move on.

Lol

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Julio Jones is practicing all over the formation at Falcons camp.

Whereas old Falcons OC Dirk Koetter aligned Julio almost strictly on the left side of the formation at X receiver, the X receiver position in new OC Kyle Shanahan typically moves around a ton in an effort to create favorable matchups. It's a position manned by Andre Johnson and Pierre Garcon on Shanahan's past teams. Without question, Julio will be a target vacuum this year.

Source: Vaughn McClure on Twitter
Aug 5 - 1:14 PM

 

[Chaka]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.

Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

 

[Faust]

Kyle Shanahan now even more impressed with Julio Jones:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/173682/kyle-shanahan-now-even-more-impressed-with-julio-jones

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Julio Jones - WR - Falcons

Owner Arthur Blank said he expects Julio Jones to be a Falcons "lifer."

Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant set the bar high for next year's crop of free agent receivers by agreeing to matching five-year, $70 million contracts last month. Jones set a new Falcons single-season record for yards last season and should be just as dominant in 2015. The Falcons can franchise tag Jones next offseason if a long-term deal isn't reached. It's hard to picture him leaving Atlanta.

Source: Vaughn McClure on Twitter

Aug 9 - 12:03 PM

 

[Faust]

Roddy White: 'Sky's the limit' for Julio Jones

http://espn.go.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/14862/roddy-white-i-just-want-to-be-healthy-for-16-games

 

[TripItUp]

I have Julio ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

total value at end of 2nd/early 3rd.

 

[jurb26]

I have Roddy ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

What!?!?Get outa this thread with this blasphemy.

 

[TripItUp]

I have Roddy ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

What!?!?Get outa this thread with this blasphemy.

corrected above, Julio, not roddy obviously.

 

[Sebowski]

This Antonio Bryant guy sounds like the real deal

 

[Arodin]

This Antonio Bryant guy sounds like the real deal

Had a ton of potential, but I don't really see him realizing it at this stage in his career:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BryaAn00.htm

 

[Jed]

I have Julio ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

total value at end of 2nd/early 3rd.

End of 2nd/early 3rd? Julio won't last that long in 99% of leagues.

 

[eoMMan]

I like him but don't love him. I think he has a greater chance of injury than the other elite receivers and his TD total isn't as great (I do acknowledge that his yardarge is better though).

He's probably in my top 5 but below Brown, Dez, and honestly....below Beckham for me.

 

[fightingillini]

Right now it's not likely Julio will last past pick 12, let alone get to the end of 2nd round. He's a late 1st early 2nd rounder.

 

[Shutout]

There is probably no WR I like more for this season.

What separates him from Brown this particular year, in my opinion, is that they both look so similar in use (hard for me to imagine Julio not locking down 6/60 at a minimum any week of the season) but The Falcons are still bad enough on defense and have enough questions in the running game that the Falcons look like they will NEED to use Julio more/score more than the Steelers will.

The Steelers will inevitably find themselves in some games with the Ravens or Bengals or a team here or there that ends up 24-17, slow it down, use Bell, etc. But the Falcons, even against the Bucs, might be a 42-38 game.

I just think Julio will be called upon early and often all year long.

 

[Raider Nation]

Roddy White: 'Sky's the limit' for Julio Jones

http://espn.go.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/14862/roddy-white-i-just-want-to-be-healthy-for-16-games

That's a pretty great answer to the question he was asked!

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I have Julio ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

total value at end of 2nd/early 3rd.

End of 2nd/early 3rd? Julio won't last that long in 99% of leagues.

Yeah this tripitup guy seems to be a noob

 

[Chaka]

I have Julio ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

total value at end of 2nd/early 3rd.

End of 2nd/early 3rd? Julio won't last that long in 99% of leagues.

Yeah this tripitup guy seems to be a noob

Unless he plays in a league that is *gasp* different than yours.

 

[TripItUp]

I have Julio ranked #2 overall and not very far behind Antonio Bryant whom I believe will regress some.

total value at end of 2nd/early 3rd.

End of 2nd/early 3rd? Julio won't last that long in 99% of leagues.

Yeah this tripitup guy seems to be a noob

Some nice, stinky bait there.

He goes higher in FFPC because it's a WR friendly format.

ESPN has him late second in their ADP, CBS is a little higher.

 

[Ilov80s]

I have the 6th pick in 12 team non ppr and have done mocks at all the different sites to see how different scenarios play out. Never is Julio there for me in the middle 2nd round

 

[TripItUp]

I have the 6th pick in 12 team non ppr and have done mocks at all the different sites to see how different scenarios play out. Never is Julio there for me in the middle 2nd round

It's a moot point for me as I have him ranked #8 overall in standard formats.

 

[Ilov80s]

I have the 6th pick in 12 team non ppr and have done mocks at all the different sites to see how different scenarios play out. Never is Julio there for me in the middle 2nd round

It's a moot point for me as I have him ranked #8 overall in standard formats.

Yeah, just saying he isn't a guy you can wait on and hope he comes back unless you are real early in the 2nd round.

 

[humpback]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.

Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

 

[tangfoot]

I'd put him at 12 TDs

Probably not the best place for this question, but since TDs for WRs are so variable year to year (and partially based on luck), how do you go about setting your projections for WR touchdowns?

Is it something like the following?

95% chance he gets 5 TDs

50% chance he gets 8 TDs

33% chance he gets 10 TDs

25% chance he gets 11 TDs

And then just add it all up?

 

[iamkoza]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.

Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

the question with julio is will he get red zone looks or not under the new offense coaching staff? in the past he was invisible in the red zone and i blame that for his relatively low TD numbers (8, 10, 2 (injury), 6). can you imagine if julio got the dez treatment in the red zone... where if only 1 CB is covering him at the line you know with 100% certainty the QB is going to kill whatever play was called and give him a chance to win that one on one battle like romo does with dez?

 

[Chaka]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.

Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

 

[eoMMan]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

The likelihood of him scoring double digit TDs is definitely lower than him scoring single digit and therefore, penciling him in for 12 TDs is way too optimistic. I agree he has the talent and a better situation now to get there, but it's not as reliable as say double digit TDs from a guy like Dez....who has done it multiple times.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

The likelihood of him scoring double digit TDs is definitely lower than him scoring single digit and therefore, penciling him in for 12 TDs is way too optimistic. I agree he has the talent and a better situation now to get there, but it's not as reliable as say double digit TDs from a guy like Dez....who has done it multiple times.

Julio stays healthy and 12 is the floor. Zero chance he doesn't surpass double digits if he plays 16games. He's much better than Dez IMO and I really like Dez. Julio is on Calvin prime level.

 

[tangfoot]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

The likelihood of him scoring double digit TDs is definitely lower than him scoring single digit and therefore, penciling him in for 12 TDs is way too optimistic. I agree he has the talent and a better situation now to get there, but it's not as reliable as say double digit TDs from a guy like Dez....who has done it multiple times.

Julio stays healthy and 12 is the floor. Zero chance he doesn't surpass double digits if he plays 16games. He's much better than Dez IMO and I really like Dez. Julio is on Calvin prime level.

I like the optimism, but I think you would get about 95% of the people on this board to take the under.

 

[Ilov80s]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

The likelihood of him scoring double digit TDs is definitely lower than him scoring single digit and therefore, penciling him in for 12 TDs is way too optimistic. I agree he has the talent and a better situation now to get there, but it's not as reliable as say double digit TDs from a guy like Dez....who has done it multiple times.

Julio stays healthy and 12 is the floor. Zero chance he doesn't surpass double digits if he plays 16games. He's much better than Dez IMO and I really like Dez. Julio is on Calvin prime level.

And Calvin scored 4 TDs a couple years ago in a full season. Even Lynch and Dez, the NFL leaders in TDs scored over the last 4 years, have a floor below 12.

 

[humpback]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

The likelihood of him scoring double digit TDs is definitely lower than him scoring single digit and therefore, penciling him in for 12 TDs is way too optimistic. I agree he has the talent and a better situation now to get there, but it's not as reliable as say double digit TDs from a guy like Dez....who has done it multiple times.

There's nothing definite about it, but you're entitled to your opinion.

 

[humpback]

If Kyle improves on his numbers the same way he did for AJ, well, you do the math...

Actually I would like to see your math. What kind of target-rec-yard-td #s are you projecting for Julio this year.

Last year he was at 163-104-1,593-6

Where do you think he ends up this year? I posted my thoughts above 175-112-1,680-10 (just for you). So how far apart are we really?

Missed this earlier. I don't really do projections, but those numbers seem reasonable. I'd put him at 12 TDs (and I think that's conservative, if everyone stays healthy).

Talent wise his ceiling is 18-20 TDs but scheme wise I feel 12 is the ceiling. But, no doubt, he has the ability to make it happen.

Yes, that's where our disagreement has been the entire time. I think the scheme is great, you don't.

 

[TripItUp]

I have Julio projected at 10 TDs but I see 14 as his ceiling...he's just not a great redzone receiver.

On the other hand, he is a thoroughbred in space and arguably the most explosive receiver after the catch in the game, could easily get to 2000 yards.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I have Julio projected at 10 TDs but I see 14 as his ceiling...he's just not a great redzone receiver.

On the other hand, he is a thoroughbred in space and arguably the most explosive receiver after the catch in the game, could easily get to 2000 yards.

He has no ceiling if he plays 16 games... If I wasn't concerned about injury, I'd take him 1.03 in my PPR draft over Antonio Brown.