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WR Keenan Allen, LAC (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
Not worried at all. Keenan Allen is about to have one of those Antonio Brown Big Ben make up games. Expect KA13 to receive a ton of looks next week and beyond. The explosion he had yesterday needed to happen. Rivers will respond. One day just turned into Day 1. Save this post. You're welcome.
Yeah its not like he’s been terrible. He hasn’t gotten as many targets as last year but rivers hasn’t really had to turn to Allen to make plays so once he does he will start getting those 10 catch games. Then I just don’t think they have really ran a play to get him in the end zone, guess when Gordon literally scores every time he touches the ball in the red zone it’s hard to get anyone else involved but hopefully with his little meltdown it gets them too
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I had that feeling as well - he’s due for a few huge games. His floor has been fine in PPR.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Buy low during the bye if you can imo
zamboni
Footballguy
I agree that his outburst will probably garner more targets going forward. That said, I just don't think that he's going to emerge into the target monster that most people expected. When Henry went down in pre-season, it was assumed that he would get the lion's share of those targets and we might be looking at a 120 catch season. However, the passing game has gone through the RBs quite a bit, while an ever-improving Mike Williams and the solid Tyrell Williams have played well enough to siphon off several targets as well.
Rivers is spreading the ball around nicely and there are just more pieces in the pie than we thought back in August.
Rivers is spreading the ball around nicely and there are just more pieces in the pie than we thought back in August.
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Tau837
Footballguy
All true.
However, it is worth noting that Allen is getting 25.3% of team targets so far, compared to 27.3% last season. Using last season's 583 pass attempts, had Allen gotten 25.3% of team targets instead of 27.3%, it would have cost him 12 total targets on the season... not that impactful.
But the Chargers are just 24th in the league in pass attempts so far, compared to 8th last season, and they are averaging about 5 fewer pass attempts per game. That is where his real reduction in opportunity compared to last season has come from.
Last season, their running game was among the worst in the league, whereas this year it is top 10. That has made a big difference in playcalling.
This is the key - he's only on pace for 128, but the good news is that he's been very efficient, catching an amazing 73% of his targets. So he's still on pace for 94 receptions.
And it's not so much that Rivers hasn't been looking his way as often, it's that Rivers is only on pace for 503 passing attempts. Rivers has only thrown more than 30 passes in a game twice this year. That's pretty crazy. He averaged 36 attempts last year. So really this is something that nobody could have predicted and is totally out of Keenan's control. It's not like he's dropping passes or running the wrong routes. 73% is an elite catch rate. He's playing good football. Like @georg013 said, the big games are coming.
I'm not so sure Rivers is going to feed Allen due to the minor outburst, but the fact that the ball went through Mike Williams' hands when Keenan was open probably speaks louder to Rivers than the outburst.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't think that mattered at all, as was explained by Trent Green during the game. The pre-snap coverage dictated that Rivers go away from Allen; the fact that he beat the coverage is irrelevant. It was apparent that Rivers was explaining that to him on the sideline afterwards.
Allen's outburst is not going to cause Rivers to force it to Allen when coverage dictates otherwise. It just made Allen look like a typical diva WR1.
You quoted me saying the drop would impact Rivers more than the outburst, yet you implied I was saying the outburst would make a difference. I specifically said "I'm not so sure Rivers is going to feed Allen due to the minor outburst." Maybe you missed that?
And yes, Green's explanation was spot on. It was a quick play, so it's not like Rivers had time to make progressions. I'm sure Green is correct that once Rivers saw the coverage, he made the decision not to throw the ball to Allen. Still impressive that Allen was able to get so open and is a testament to his route running.
Tau837
Footballguy
I didn't miss it. You said you weren't so sure, leaving open the possibility that it could go either way. I *am* sure Allen's outburst is not going to cause Rivers to force it to Allen when coverage dictates otherwise. That was my point.FF Ninja said:You quoted me saying the drop would impact Rivers more than the outburst, yet you implied I was saying the outburst would make a difference. I specifically said "I'm not so sure Rivers is going to feed Allen due to the minor outburst." Maybe you missed that?
And yes, Green's explanation was spot on. It was a quick play, so it's not like Rivers had time to make progressions. I'm sure Green is correct that once Rivers saw the coverage, he made the decision not to throw the ball to Allen. Still impressive that Allen was able to get so open and is a testament to his route running.
I suppose that was poor phrasing on my part. My point was that Keenan remains the most sure handed receiver of the bunch, so when possible (i.e. not double covered), Allen will get his. The Williams WRs have their moments, but they also have had some unfortunate drops.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
The Chargers give up what it seems many third down conversions, they seem to be on the field often. The Chargers score quick (never Allen as he's more of a possession WR) Playoff schedule
14 - Cinci at home*
15 - @ KC - Nice
16 - Baltimore at home*
Tyrell is something like 11 catches on 12 targets his last 3 games. That includes 4 bombs and 1 nice sideline catch. Has he turned the corner?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Interesting statistic... curious what people closer to the situation have to say. I pretty much wrote off Tyrell this year in favor of the other Williams. I think most people did as well. He could be a sneaky pick up if still available
I like Tyrell. I don't think a small sample like 12 targets really moves the needle on him either way. He had some bad drops early in the season and he had some bad drops last year. I'm pretty sure he didn't cure this overnight. He'll continue to be a nice option, but not the most reliable.
Tau837
Footballguy
Actually, that is not true for Mike Williams, at least not for this season. Both player profiler and PFF have him with 0 drops on the season. Player profiler also has MW ranked #24 at contested catches so far this season. All of this is consistent with his reputation coming out of college, so I see no reason to disbelieve it.
No doubt Tyrell has had some ugly drops, including 1 easy TD and another that was contested but should have been a TD.
(The ball you referenced from Sunday that Williams didn't catch in the end zone was not an easy catch, hence not a drop.)
Tau837
Footballguy
Agree. His long TD on Sunday was because his defender bit on a shoulder fake from Rivers while Tyrell ran past him on a go route. If the defender did his job, it is hard to say if Tyrell would have been open, Rivers would have targeted him, and/or whether or not he would have caught it and scored. Kudos to Tyrell for making the play, but it was largely due to blown coverage. That sort of thing can skew a small sample size.
He got lit up after the fact, but it went straight through his hands. No idea how that's not a drop.
Tau837
Footballguy
The NFL standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."
The play was well contested by the defender, Williams was leaping and extended, and he was trying to catch the ball over his shoulder. Certainly a play that he could have made, but not a drop by that definition IMO.
Fair enough. While the defender was close, he was behind him so not like he was in his face, between him and the ball, or making a play on the ball. But he did have to feel that pressure. If I was Rivers I'd still expect him to catch it when I hit him in the hands.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
thoughts on ROS?
second half resurgence like last year -or- more of the same?
second half resurgence like last year -or- more of the same?
TripleThreat
Footballguy
There's no telling. Schedule looks pretty average. Will mostly depend on game flow which will impact pass attempts which will impact his targets. His target share is still solid, so if Rivers is passing, Keenan is likely to get his. The rest is just about catching a break here or there. Personally, I think Keenan is as likely as anyone to have a nice second half.
He's healthy coming out of the bye week. They have a good schedule moving forward (weather and opponents). It comes down to game script because he will get targets. It's now a matter of turning some of these targets/catches into TDs!
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
My hope is Chargers' bye week last week gave a chance between Rivers and Allen to clear up the air after Allen's outburst on week 7 vs. Jaguars. I think Allen will get his high target opportunities once defense starts keying on Gordon and others. Allen's exceptional route-running will always get him open looks.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Great start to the FF playoffs
zamboni
Footballguy
The fantasy gods can be cruel. Keenan finally starts scoring TDs (5 straight games prior to last night) in addition to all those catches and is set up for a shootout against KC. And then puts up his worst game ever, even including those in the past when he got hurt.
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zamboni
Footballguy
He did almost make it through two full years without getting hurt. But he does get hurt more than most other top WRs, perhaps with the exception of AJ Green.
A few missed quarters in one game in two years and this starts back up again.
A non-contact ACL tear and a lacerated kidney do not an injury prone player make.
zamboni
Footballguy
Broken collarbone, too.A few missed quarters in one game in two years and this starts back up again.
A non-contact ACL tear and a lacerated kidney do not an injury prone player make.
