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WR Keenan Allen, LAC (1 Viewer)

Is Tyrod Taylor bad news for the fantasy outlooks of Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, and Keenan Allen?

Excerpt:

Keenan Allen has been a PPR darling throughout his career, with catch volume bolstering his bottom line. But now, he’ll be without Philip Rivers — does this change your trust in him, or do you expect his skill set to translate smoothly to Tyrod Taylor?

Scott: Allen’s posted modest touchdown counts over the last three years, despite heavy volume. Check Allen’s cumulative ranks over the last three years: Fifth in targets, third in catches, fourth in yards — but just 19th in receiving touchdowns.

And now Allen starts all over again, with Tyrod Taylor (and perhaps rookie Justin Herbert) at quarterback. Departed starter Philip Rivers peppered Allen to a fault, and believed in a narrow usage tree. It’s unlikely Taylor will utilize the same strategy. Allen is still a Top 20 wideout in early Yahoo draft results, but a number of receiving options in the 21-27 range look like much stronger values.

Dalton: It’s an atypical preseason, but I’d still bet on a team starting a player sooner rather than later after spending the No. 6 pick on him. Either way, I view both QBs as major downgrades from Rivers, whose biggest problem was interceptions last year, not an inability to move the ball. Even with Rivers, Allen’s TD production was capped, and he’s now fighting targets with Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Ekeler to go along with the shaky QB situation, so I have Allen ranked much lower than the market. Don’t forget he was also once viewed as a huge injury risk, and he’ll see a dramatic decrease in accuracy from Rivers to Herbert.

Liz: Allen has gone over 1,000 yards and managed at least a WR12 FF finish for three consecutive seasons. Per PFF he’s also posted the fourth-best receiving grade in the NFL (91.2) since 2017. This year, he’ll obviously be without Philip Rivers for the first time in his career. Like Dalton, I agree that both Taylor and Herbert are downgrades. I don’t think anyone is expecting a career season from Allen, but that’s also why his ADP is depressed. A player with his elite route-running ability and obvious talent reflects a high floor ... and is worth an investment in the fourth to sixth rounds of 12-team exercises. He’s the Yahoo consensus WR21. 
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Chargers signed WR Keenan Allen to a four-year extension through 2024. 

Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the deal is worth "more than" $80 million. That probably means something like $80.125 million, but Rapsheet informs that Allen is now the second highest-paid receiver in the NFL. That would not normally be recommended with a 28-year-old slot man, but Allen is one of the league's most consistent producers and top route runners. At one point considered "injury prone," Allen has not missed a game since 2016. The Chargers can afford the extravagance with Justin Herbert on his rookie contract, while locking in a top weapon for a young quarterback is never bad. Allen is a high-floor WR2 in 2020 re-draft. 

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter 

Sep 5, 2020, 2:25 PM ET
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I love Keenan as an NFL player, and he's been a solid FF player, but the obvious question is how will he fare without Rivers?  I suppose if he drops far enough, I'd grab him, but I just don't like the QB sitch.

 
I like Keenan Allen and have probably watched 95% of his career snaps....but $80M?

I bet no more than 30 is guaranteed.  

 
Yes Sirrrskiiii!!! Keenan is cool as hell...everyone out here loves him dude...he's humble... kicks it with all the locals...Hoops with us... its been awesome since he moved to OC... He said all off season he wanted Julio money.... he said back in March he wanted 20 million per season... He knew what he was talking about obviously...  

 
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JoeSteeler said:
tommyGunZ said:
I like Keenan Allen and have probably watched 95% of his career snaps....but $80M?

I bet no more than 30 is guaranteed.  
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Reportedly $50 million
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I like Allen, and he earned a big contract... his current contract has been a pretty good bargain for the Chargers.

But I agree this feels like they overpaid. 

The Chargers are set to have an awful lot of cap space tied up at WR in a down cap year.

They picked up Mike Williams' 5th year option already, and he is set to have a cap hit of $15.68M in 2021. 2021 is the first year of Allen's extension, which is reported at 4 years, $80M. It's hard to see his 2021 cap hit being less than $15M.

Add the contracts of Reed, Hill, and any other WRs on the 2021 roster, and they will have at least $31M in cap space dedicated to the WR position in a year when the cap may be as low as $175M - 17.7%. Before this extension, they were set to have about $21M tied to the position in 2020, with the cap at $198M - 10.6%.

That is a challenge that will have to be dealt with. Note, I'm in favor of Allen getting an extension, but not necessarily at this price, and I was not in favor of committing almost $16M to Williams in 2021.

 
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Keenan Allen caught 4-of-8 targets for 37 yards in the Chargers' Week 1 win over the Bengals.

The target tree for the Chargers was condensed between Allen, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams, who surprisingly played through a shoulder injury. Allen's production was inconsistent in the season opener with him and Tyrod Taylor simply misconnecting. Still, Allen's 27% target share is good news for his WR3 appeal in season-long leagues. Expect a better day out of the elite route runner with the high-scoring Chiefs visiting Los Angeles for Week 2.

- Rotoworld
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Keenan Allen caught 7-of-10 targets for 96 yards in the Chargers' Week 2 overtime loss to the Chiefs.

Allen looked sharp, working underneath and between zones versus the Chiefs, who he's had success against in previous contests. The Week 2 stat line is good, but the story is the Chargers' improved offense under surprise starter Justin Herbert. Tyrod Taylor and Chargers offense looked like one of the worst in the league in Week 1, but Herbert provided more of a threat through the air immediately. Allen has a chance to operate as a top-24 receiver moving forward, especially in plus matchups. Week 3's contest against the Panthers certainly counts as one. Allen is a borderline WR2
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Keenan Allen caught 11-of-19 targets for 136 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' Week 3 loss to the Panthers. 

Allen commanded an outstanding 41.3 percent of LA's targets. Just Herbert threw to Allen no matter the coverage. Allen's all-world route running got him just open enough for the rookie to connect on a few critical second half passes. Allen, with 29 targets in two Herbert starts, could find himself in the WR1 conversation next week against the Bucs. 

Sep 27, 2020, 9:38 PM ET
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Keenan Allen caught 8-of-11 targets for 62 yards in the Chargers' Week 4 loss to the Bucs.

There's love in the air between rookie Justin Herbert and Keenan. In his three starts, Herbert has targeted Allen 10, 19, and 11 times. That equated to an elite 44% target share this week. With Austin Ekeler (hamstring) likely missing the next few weeks, Allen can be projected for 8-12 targets as long as Herbert stays under center, something that absolutely should happen if coach Anthony Lynn is thinking straight. Allen will be a sure-fire WR1 against the Saints next Monday night. We'll see if CBs Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins will be active then. They missed Week 4. Through four games, Allen is on pace for a 128-1,302-4 receiving line. PPR gold.

- Rotoworld
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Kennan Allen exited Week 5 against the Saints with a back injury Monday night and is questionable to return.

Allen remains on the sideline and is trying to get stretched out by the training staff. Prior to leaving, Allen caught both of his targets for 29 yards and a touchdown on an incredible on-the-run throw by Justin Herbert to avoid the rush. Allen has been lights out with Herbert at quarterback. The injury doesn't appear to be too serious.

Oct 12, 2020, 8:59 PM ET
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Keenan Allen (back) has been ruled out for the remainder of Week 5 against the Saints.

Allen went down in the second quarter and was never able to get stretched out enough to make a return to Monday night's affair. Jalen Guyton and Mike Williams are soaking up the receiver snaps in Allen's absence. Before leaving, Allen caught both of his targets for 29 yards and a touchdown. Allen now has a short week to get ready for Week 6 against the Jets.

Oct 12, 2020, 10:09 PM ET
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Assuming the injury is fine this guy might still be a great buy.

His value hasn't bounced back that much but the big concern for him was the offense losing a TON of passing production/volume.  Herbert in 4 games is on a 4800 yard 36 TD passing pace.  Obviously he won't keep that up but it looks like there will be PLENTY of yards/TDs to go around in LA with Herbert at the helm.

 
Coach Anthony Lynn said Keenan Allen was dealing with back spasms Monday night against the Saints and "will be fine."

Allen has the bye week to rest up before Week 7 against the Jaguars. The injury didn't look to be anything serious when he was knocked out of the second quarter, but Allen just couldn't get stretched out on the trainer's table after going 2-29-1 on two targets. Allen managers can breathe a sigh of relief and expect him to play in two weeks.

SOURCE: Gilbert Manzano on Twitter

Oct 14, 2020, 4:54 PM ET
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The Rodney Dangerfield of Wrs. He’s been in my top 5 since he came out of Cal. Truly, truly the most underrated WR we have today in the NFL. Runs the crispiest routes of any WR in the league (even better than AB when he was still in Pittsburgh) and runs circles around anybody talking about a route tree. The most important trait for a WR imo is your ability to get open. The position is about dominating in spurts, the burst in short areas (think shuttle cone at the Combine) and having the instinct to separate when being blanketed. The best receiver is the open receiver and all he does is get open. Plus he’s a dog and will go up the middle. Now he has Rainbow Sherbert throwing to him to complete his path to the HOF eventually..

 
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Keenan Allen has been added to the Chargers' Week 9 injury report with an illness and is questionable for Sunday's game against the Raiders.

Typically, we wouldn't bat an eye at "questionable/illness," but that was before COVID-19. Hopefully Allen is not dealing with a coronavirus-related situation. If he's not, it is difficult to envision him sitting out tomorrow afternoon. If Allen can't go against the Raiders, Hunter Henry's targets floor would increase while Mike Williams' ceiling would make him more of a WR2 than WR3. Hopefully we can some clarity on this situation with a late Saturday night update. 

SOURCE: Daniel Popper on Twitter 

Nov 7, 2020, 4:06 PM ET
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Helaire-ious said:
Anyone sitting him with the news of sore throat?
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NFL players routinely play through very bad ailments such as the flu or bouts of food poisoning. In normal times a sore throat designation wouldn’t even make the injury report but it takes on greater significance in the era of COVID. That said a sore throat seems unlikely to hold Keenan back too much, NFL players are tough dudes 

 
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Chargers WR Keenan Allen has tested negative for COVID-19 and is eligible to play in Week 9 against the Raiders.

Allen is still listed as questionable but previous reports only mentioned him having a sore throat so he appears on track to play. Allen is averaging 12.8 targets per game with Justin Herbert under center after removing the game he missed most of with back spasms. The Chargers are top-10 in passing yards and passing touchdown per game this year and Allen is the favorite receiver of his team's rookie passer. He remains a WR1 despite the sore throat.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Nov 8, 2020, 9:02 AM ET
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I just traded a 1st (likely 1.09 or lower) and Marquise Brown for him in a dynasty PPR league. Feeling pretty good about it, his targets are so high he should have no issue remaining a low-end WR1 this season and next, as Herbert also emerges as a QB1. Ironically I have Mike Williams in that league too, who has consistently been boom-bust but tends to boom when Allen is out. So nice to have the hand-cuff there.

 
kerpow said:
I just traded a 1st (likely 1.09 or lower) and Marquise Brown for him in a dynasty PPR league. Feeling pretty good about it, his targets are so high he should have no issue remaining a low-end WR1 this season and next, as Herbert also emerges as a QB1. Ironically I have Mike Williams in that league too, who has consistently been boom-bust but tends to boom when Allen is out. So nice to have the hand-cuff there.
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Feeling very good about this trade 😀

 
Totally whiffed on Keenan this year.
Passed over him in a few rounds thinking his production would drop without Rivers locking into him. 

So basically whiffed on both him and Herbert.

 
zamboni said:
Totally whiffed on Keenan this year.
Passed over him in a few rounds thinking his production would drop without Rivers locking into him. 

So basically whiffed on both him and Herbert.
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i thought herbert would suck.  boy was i wrong.  still drafted allen kinda late.  hes my third wr!   big part of the reason i am in first with most points

 
Keenan Allen caught 4-of-10 targets for 40 yards and one score in Los Angeles' Week 12 loss to Buffalo.

Allen's touchdown catch was a well-designed play that put him in motion pre-snap and aligned him across from LB Tremaine Edmunds in zone coverage. Sunday was also Allen's eighth performance with double-digit targets from Justin Herbert as he's now recorded as many looks in 8-of-9 full games with the standout rookie this year. Allen has proven to be matchup-proof despite coach Anthony Lynn's horrendous play-calling and should continue to be treated as such in Week 13 against the Patriots.

- Rotoworld
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osubuckeyeman said:
It's a bit concerning  that he was not in the game with the game on the line. I suppose they were being careful with him and their record being what it is. 

But still. I'm a bit concerned with being sore and tightness in his back.
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Main issue is they play Thursday night so not a lot of time to recover. Wouldnt be concerned if he had the full week. 

 
osubuckeyeman said:
It's a bit concerning  that he was not in the game with the game on the line. I suppose they were being careful with him and their record being what it is. 

But still. I'm a bit concerned with being sore and tightness in his back.
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He was in on that int Herbert tried to force to him on the 2nd to last drive. May not be that bad.

 
Keenan Allen (hamstring) returned to Chargers practice Tuesday, getting in a "limited" session. 

As did Austin Ekeler (quad). You never like to see the hamstring designation for a wideout, especially on a short week, but it certainly appears as if Allen is on track to suit up against the Raiders on Thursday. Although his yardage has fallen off in recent weeks, Allen continues to receive voluminous usage. He will remain locked in as a WR1 for the fantasy semifinals. 

Dec 15, 2020, 4:16 PM ET
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dont know how you can sit him.  i could for mclaurin but hes been terrible.  Im going to play allen unless we hear something negative before gametime

 
need2know said:
dont know how you can sit him.  i could for mclaurin but hes been terrible.  Im going to play allen unless we hear something negative before gametime
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See how today’s practice goes. Agreed, Keenans usage/targets is hard to sit. A poor mans Davante Adams. 

 
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