WR Kevin White, NO (2 Viewers)

[socrates]

Kevin White is a bit of a mystery to me.  Although in retrospect I should have, I did not discount him coming into the 2015 NFL Draft based on the fact he only had the one big season (I had him as the clear #2 WR behind Cooper).  Put on the tape of his 2014 senior season, and you quickly realize his big numbers that season were no fluke; he was physically dominant, albeit raw.  He followed up his senior campaign with elite measurables at the Combine.  He ran a 4.35 second 40 and checked in at 6'3".  Injuries have no doubt wreaked havoc upon his progress, and now he has reportedly lost his confidence.  We have seen plenty of physically gifted players fizzle out in the NFL, so it will not come as a major surprise if he follows that pattern.  Heck, we all sorta expect that now.

It was always known that White was a project.  He ran a limited route tree at West Virginia.  He basically did one thing in West Virginia's wide-open offense: line up on the right side of the offense and beat defenders.  But he did that one thing really well, at least for one season, to the tune of 109 receptions for 1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns.  He not only outran defenders, he fought (almost savagely) for yardage once he got the ball in his hands.  White displayed good hands, excellent leaping ability and an ability to out-battle defenders for contested passes.  Rewind to his junior season, however, and his flaws are on display.  He looked lost at times, had trouble with drops and didn't show much suddenness out of his breaks.

There is still a chance White rediscovers the athletic tools that catapulted him into a top 10 draft pick, if injuries haven't sapped him of his abilities or confidence.  However, even if he recovers physically and mentally, he remains a project.  We always knew he would have to refine his route running.  Kevin White's fantasy value is rapidly descending, and he could end up as the next Cordarrelle Patterson: a one-trick pony who fails to make his mark as a receiver in the NFL.  Still, at the right price, I am buying dynasty shares of Kevin White.  His floor is the basement, but at his current price, I will chase his ceiling and be ready to cut my losses if he fails.

 

[Ilov80s]

Does Randy Moss count?  He only had one year at Marshall but I think he was at some smaller school before that because he had some issues.

Kevin White started two years at WVU in his JR and Sr year.  Just because only one year was really good doesn't mean he doesn't have any experience.  There are some great WRs that only played two years.  The difference is that these other guys started their FR and SO years before entering the draft so obviously it's a pretty big difference.  I haven't been able to find enough data yet to see how many WRs only had a good SR season and went on to be a good NFL WR.

Moss fits into the Cam outlier box. Only 1 season, but it was maybe the best WR season in college football history: 1800 yards, 20 yards per catch and 26 TDs. White played his junior year, but at 21 years old and being an athletic freak, he should have been able to do more at WVU. To me a 21 athletic monster, playing without much positional competition should have been dominating. 

 

[flapgreen]

How many WRs in NFL history can you remember having good careers after missing most of their first two years? The odds are he'll wash out and never do anything. 

 

[Zyphros]

Is it possible he just doesn't get along with the coaches?  With him disputing what he and the coach did for getting his "confidence" back or whatever could it be he just doesn't like playing for that organization?  Totally on board that he has to prove he's worthy of someone else's time though.  He's probalby a tough sell at this point for anyone. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

How many WRs in NFL history can you remember having good careers after missing most of their first two years? The odds are he'll wash out and never do anything. 

Is there really a big enough sample size to even make that assumption?  How many players at any position missed their first two years due to two different, fluke injuries?

 

[Ilov80s]

Is there really a big enough sample size to even make that assumption?  How many players at any position missed their first two years due to two different, fluke injuries?

Likely there isn't. Charles Rogers is the only close comp coming to mind. The difference is Rogers was outstanding in the limited time he played. White was really really bad. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

Likely there isn't. Charles Rogers is the only close comp coming to mind. The difference is Rogers was outstanding in the limited time he played. White was really really bad. 

White played 4 games, I don't think that's enough to determine that he was really, really bad.

 

[Faust]

Bears Camp Digest: Mike Glennon-to-Kevin White connection growing 

 

[Faust]

WR Kevin White disputes Bears coach's take on film session 

 

[Biabreakable]

White played 4 games, I don't think that's enough to determine that he was really, really bad.

I agree thats not enough time, but he wasn't doing anything during the preseason that year either. I drafted White so I was watching him intently. He seemed pretty lost and was not running good routes. He did not look good. From my hopeful perspective I thought he was getting a bit better before he got injured, but that is pretty relative as improving from not getting open at all to get open a couple of times is what I mean by improvement.

If he had looked a bit better than what I saw I would be more on board with the idea that injuries held him back. He didn't look very good and I thought Merrideth showed a better understanding of running routes than White did.

 

[Hawkeye21]

I just really want to see him on the field for an entire season so we can get a better idea what he is.

 

[Ilov80s]

White played 4 games, I don't think that's enough to determine that he was really, really bad.

Sure, but it was enough time to tell that this guy wasn't ready to do much. Charles Rogers played 5 games as a 22 year old rookie before his series of injuries. He had 243 yards and 3 TDs. White played 4 games as a 24 year old and had 187 yards, 0 TDs. Just comparing the 2, you can see sometimes players pop and sometimes players flop. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

Sure, but it was enough time to tell that this guy wasn't ready to do much. Charles Rogers played 5 games as a 22 year old rookie before his series of injuries. He had 243 yards and 3 TDs. White played 4 games as a 24 year old and had 187 yards, 0 TDs. Just comparing the 2, you can see sometimes players pop and sometimes players flop. 

I wonder if White would have looked better as a true rookie coming in with some confidence instead of coming into the season a year older off of an injury and possibly lacking confidence.  Just a theory.

 

[DocHolliday]

I wonder if White would have looked better as a true rookie coming in with some confidence instead of coming into the season a year older off of an injury and possibly lacking confidence.  Just a theory.

White would likely have looked better not coming off of the injuries but not sure any of that matters at this point.  He has been injured and has done very little two years into his NFL career.   If he can stay healthy for the next month, we will have something to talk about after we get a chance to see him in the exhibition games.  I am not going to make any decisions on White now.   

 

[flapgreen]

Is there really a big enough sample size to even make that assumption?  How many players at any position missed their first two years due to two different, fluke injuries?

Plenty of examples of players hurt during their first two years. Probably just as many players hurt in their first two years as not. 

 

[flapgreen]

I just really want to see him on the field for an entire season so we can get a better idea what he is.

Me too

 

[Catbird]

A whole lot of extremely good WRs did nothing in their first year, let alone their first 4 games. White was only a JC player for 2 years and looked lost in his first year at WVU before breaking out to be one of the top 3-4 WRs in college football once he got the hang of the game and skill level in his senior year. I'm not going to write him off for looking lost in his first 4 games as a pro, which is all he's played to date, but to each his own.  I understand and share the 2 years of frustration, but I'm glad to wait and see, and to buy where I can from people who've given up him for doing nothing for 4 games and 2 serious injuries. Even if the odds are less than 50/50 of him being a stud, this is the kind of lottery ticket that can reshape a whole receiving corps.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Plenty of examples of players hurt during their first two years. Probably just as many players hurt in their first two years as not. 

Lol. You're telling me that there are just as many players that missed their first two seasons due injury as there are players that were healthy?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

At his current adp he is a great dart throw imo.....

 

[Ilov80s]

At his current adp he is a great dart throw imo.....

Well yeah, his adp has with guys that likely aren't even playing this year (Gordon, Fuller and Mike Williams)

 

[ZWK]

A lot of great NFL receivers only had 1 big season in college. Brandon Marshall, Odell Beckham (though he left school after his junior year), Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant (though he broke out as a sophomore, missed most of his junior year, and then entered the NFL), Calvin Johnson to some extent (though he also left school after his junior year).

I'd say that "one year wonder" is not much of a concern, but "not doing much before his senior season" is more of a concern (or perhaps "not doing much before age X").

 

[flapgreen]

Lol. You're telling me that there are just as many players that missed their first two seasons due injury as there are players that were healthy?

I wouldn't say players who missed their entire first two seasons but there are tons who have missed a lot of time during their first two years and more.  Some bodies just aren't cut out for the NFL. See RG3. It still doesn't change my point. The odds of succeeding after missing most of your first two seasons is very low, especially compared to guys who are on the field more coming out. That's just reality.  He was raw coming out. Now hes two years older coming off injuries that have wiped out his first two years, not to mention he didn't have a ton of college experience. I'm not guaranteeing he will fail. I'm saying the odds of him being a number one receiver like he was drafted to be is low. It has to be after going through the last two years. I'm sure the Bears are just hoping he can be a contributor at this point, as am I.  Anything extra is a bonus. 

 

[Hawkeye21]

I wouldn't say players who missed their entire first two seasons but there are tons who have missed a lot of time during their first two years and more.  Some bodies just aren't cut out for the NFL. See RG3. It still doesn't change my point. The odds of succeeding after missing most of your first two seasons is very low, especially compared to guys who are on the field more coming out. That's just reality.  He was raw coming out. Now hes two years older coming off injuries that have wiped out his first two years, not to mention he didn't have a ton of college experience. I'm not guaranteeing he will fail. I'm saying the odds of him being a number one receiver like he was drafted to be is low. It has to be after going through the last two years. I'm sure the Bears are just hoping he can be a contributor at this point, as am I.  Anything extra is a bonus. 

Ok, so you're just guessing. I agree that what you said is most likely but I was actually curious about real numbers. What are the actual odds?  What players have overcome a similar situation? Not just our own speculation. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ok, so you're just guessing. I agree that what you said is most likely but I was actually curious about real numbers. What are the actual odds?  What players have overcome a similar situation? Not just our own speculation. 

There are almost no comps that I can think of.  Yatil Green and Charles Rogers are the only two and I can think of offhand.  Obviously it didn't work out very well for either of them but 2 isn't much of a sample size.

 

[Chef Boyardee]

Jimmy Smith had the same injury his first year (broken fibula, played seven games on ST's with no receptions), had an emergency appendectomy with a severe infection his second year that caused him to miss the entire year.  He was released by the Eagles in his third year and didn't play at all.  He then had 22 receptions in his fourth year before finally having a great year with 83 receptions for 1244 yards and 7 TD's in his fifth year.  He was also on the old side as he was 23 his first year too.

 

[flapgreen]

Invisible last night. No catches. Not a great camp. Confidence shot

 

[DropKick]

Invisible last night. No catches. Not a great camp. Confidence shot

Trade him to the Jets?

 

[flapgreen]

Trade him to the Jets?

Now that's not bad idea. Wonder if it's in the works already... 

 

[Hawkeye21]

Invisible last night. No catches. Not a great camp. Confidence shot

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Jimmy Smith had the same injury his first year (broken fibula, played seven games on ST's with no receptions), had an emergency appendectomy with a severe infection his second year that caused him to miss the entire year.  He was released by the Eagles in his third year and didn't play at all.  He then had 22 receptions in his fourth year before finally having a great year with 83 receptions for 1244 yards and 7 TD's in his fifth year.  He was also on the old side as he was 23 his first year too.

cocaine is a hell of a drug.....

 

[flapgreen]

Will be lucky if he ever catches 30 balls in a season. 

 

[flapgreen]

Kevin White's stat line through 2 preseason games:

2 catches, 2 yards, 3 targets.

 

[tombonneau]

Kevin White's stat line through 2 preseason games:

2 catches, 2 yards, 3 targets.

Only good thing about owning him is it caused me to pick up Cam Meredith who could be a solid WR2. 

 

[flapgreen]

Cam is going to be an excellent receiver 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Look forward to being able to cut him next offseason. Gonna be great.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Look forward to being able to cut him next offseason   him by Halloween. Gonna be great.

 

[Tau837]

The main axoim that has been reinforced for me by Whites college and pro career thus far is to be cautious of college players with only one good season.

Nothing wrong with being cautious but some take it too far.  Cam Newton and Russell Wilson only had one good year in college.  There are plenty more over the years as well.

I know this exchange is a couple weeks old, but this is wrong about Russell Wilson. Facts:

• Wilson was 1st team All ACC QB in 2008, the first time in ACC history a freshman QB was 1st team All ACC.
  
• Wilson led the ACC in TD passes in all 3 of his seasons at NC State, and he is #5 all time in the ACC in TD passes and total TDs. Of the players with more TDs in ACC history, all played 4 seasons in the ACC except Deshaun Watson.
  
• Wilson led the ACC in passing yards in 2010, was #4 in 2009, and was #7 in 2008 as a freshman.
  
• Wilson led the ACC in total offense in 2010, was #2 in 2009, and was #5 in 2008 as a freshman.
  
• In 2008-2009, Wilson broke Andre Woodson's all-time NCAA record of 325 consecutive pass attempts without an interception and reset that record at 379 attempts.
  

 

[Biabreakable]

I liked ZWK's response above and he provided some examples of college WR who didn't have more than one good year at that level who went on to become good NFL WR. He had some exceptions about those examples, and pointed out that a good college season at a younger age, more predictive of successful NFL WR than one who has a good college season as a senior and at a bit older age.

This is something about White that always bothered me, even before he was drafted as high as he was by the Bears. How things have not progressed for White gives some credence to this perspective against one year wonders, but it certainly isn't a hard fast rule. Each player is different.

Just trying to learn what can be learned from the evaluation of college prospects and college career profiles similar to Whites are ones to be cautious with in the future, unless more evidence is provided to debunk this point of view than what I have seen.

 

[flapgreen]

I liked ZWK's response above and he provided some examples of college WR who didn't have more than one good year at that level who went on to become good NFL WR. He had some exceptions about those examples, and pointed out that a good college season at a younger age, more predictive of successful NFL WR than one who has a good college season as a senior and at a bit older age.

This is something about White that always bothered me, even before he was drafted as high as he was by the Bears. How things have not progressed for White gives some credence to this perspective against one year wonders, but it certainly isn't a hard fast rule. Each player is different.

Just trying to learn what can be learned from the evaluation of college prospects and college career profiles similar to Whites are ones to be cautious with in the future, unless more evidence is provided to debunk this point of view than what I have seen.

He's barely played at all because of injuries. How can you make an evaluation? Any receiver coming out of college wouldn't show any progression after missing their first two years in the NFL. 

 

[Deamon]

How high does he go now?

 

[Ilov80s]

How high does he go now?

I wouldn't move him up at all.

 

[Deamon]

I wouldn't move him up at all.

How come?  Will clearly get more targets now with CM out, no?

 

[Ilov80s]

How come?  Will clearly get more targets now with CM out, no?

I don't think he is getting more targets necessarily It's a bad offense and a totally unproven often injured guy. 

 

[Deamon]

I don't think he is getting more targets necessarily It's a bad offense and a totally unproven often injured guy. 

I agree the offense is bad, I just don't see how you can divy up CM's 96 targets from last year and not give any to White.

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree the offense is bad, I just don't see how you can divy up CM's 96 targets from last year and not give any to White.

I think White was already locked into a lot of targets with the role he had. 

 

[Deamon]

I think White was already locked into a lot of targets with the role he had. 

Fair, just wondering how you would divy up the 96 CM targets.

 

[Ilov80s]

Fair, just wondering how you would divy up the 96 CM targets.

Kendall Wright or whatever receivers are next up there. I also think Kevin White is a bad player too so I am biased. 

 

[BoulderBob]

Well, it's make or break now. He's either going to emerge as a legit number one or he's going to be a free agent come February. 

 

[OC Zed]

How did he look today?

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Dude is garbage