WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (2 Viewers)

[rockaction]

I don't think the ESPN people (Bowen?) are putting a lot of critical thought into what they are writing her

I am not a fan of ESPN at all, but I also will say that their fantasy writers are 200% (specifically!) better than their other sensationalist coverage.

Just as a data point, PFF shows that Johnston had 3 targets in Surtain's coverage and 6 targets in the coverage of other Broncos defenders. I don't know of a source that identifies how many snaps a given defender covered a given offensive player, but this shows that Surtain was on others a decent amount of the time in that game.

I actually said I did, posted it in this thread (I think), and reiterated it again in the post you're quoting. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this. I can tell you that their fact-counting stuff is pretty darn good.

"Even more concerning, McConkey ranks third in aerial opportunities with 21 looks as opposed to Allen's 26 and Johnston's 24. Lest one was to believe that Pat Surtain II negatively impacted McConkey's production in Week 3; per NFL Next Gen Stats, McConkey lined up against the Broncos' star CB on only five of his 52 routes. Instead, Surtain largely covered Johnston, trailing the WR on 42 of his routes.

It's troublesome that on such a pass-happy offense, McConkey has logged just 154 receiving yards (WR31). In fact, Los Angeles has registered the eighth-highest designed pass rate (66%) in the NFL with 75% of the squad's yards coming through the air (fourth most). Najee Harris' absence (Achilles) could open up more opportunities for the second-year receiver, but with his team as 6.5-point favorites at New York, it's unlikely he'll garner a massive boost. As such, he figures to languish on the WR2/flex bubble, offering investors WR30(ish) value in Week 4." - Liz Loza, "Facts vs. Feelings" 9/25/05

An example of a source in whom I put a lot of credence is Matt Harmon, and I look forward to him commenting on Ladd's performance, but haven't seen that yet. Harmon did comment on 9/26 within commentary about Johnston that he expected McConkey to end up as the Chargers' #1 WR for the season. FWIW that was before Sunday's game.

I do too, and I cite Matt Harmon frequently on the boards and also subscribe to his website. I also know that he is fallible and will advocate for his guys. I know who those guys are (Curtis Samuel, Nico Collins, and a few others) and I'm even able to discount the analysis of those guys, but I do not discount it a ton. Just FYI. He was really pumping Samuel one year, and I got totally burned in a dispersal draft.

I also listen to JJ Zachariason, Jacob Gibbs, and Scott Barrett, Ryan Heath, Ben Cummings, and others. I will do a Twitter/X dive and re-post anything I come across. My goal is not to be right, but to present good info.

From Jacob Gibbs via Fantasy Points data:

Ladd's first read percentage is dropping every week while QJ's has ascended

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1972752162020380728

Pat Fitzmaurice on how K. Allen impacts Ladd McConkey (this is less of a dynasty question, but relevant):

https://x.com/rotounderworld/status/1958650320063799321

Fantasy Points data with an opinion from an uncredited author, saying he refuses to believe McConkey's TPRR/separation ratio will stay the way it is, so he believes in McConkey (I lost the link):

https://x.com/FantasyPtsData/status/1970587536839065670

Matt Harmon still likes McConkey but says the following on Monday during a show on Yahoo with Chris Allen:

Allen points out that Herbert has been under a lot of pressure this year and Johnston's game might suit that scramble reaction better than Ladd's route-running technician skills.

Matt Harmon then says

"I don't think we're . . . I don't think we're quite there (in something they call the "coping corner," which is where things are permanent and true) because
like you said, I think there will be bigger days and bigger games because he's just a good player in a pass heavy offense.
There will be big games and big days. I don't think Ladd McConkey just forgot how to play football. Sometimes these things just happen. But it's past time for like a
dramatic reconfiguration of what you thought his performance and output would be this year because the the picture has
just dramatically changed from what it was last year because QJ has emerged and Keenan Allen is back and that just kind
of is what it is. Not to mention also Chris, we we talk about the offensive line and the injuries there. Omarion Hampton is really involved as like kind
of a layup target for this team as well just to check the ball down and keep Herbert out of those pressure
situations. So that's just another guy who's going to be commanding volume in the receiving game. So not great if you
took Ladd McConkey in the late second round this year. It is just not I don't think he . . . I don't think that's going to work
out. I think he will have bigger games, better days than one catch for 11 damn yards, but it's just it's not going to
happen for him as like a second round value player. At least that's what the evidence has shown us so far. All right,
with that, let's get into the games that we care about most. Starting with something that I thought would be a bit"

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[Ray_T]

I think you gotta hold unless you are super desperate. Nobody is going to give you squat for him though, IMO.

Just gotta do what I did and make a last minute decision to bench him for Pickens

agreed. hold is the best option. he has been a bit dinged up last couple games, so maybe thats whats behind the recent poor production.

its possible that hes better once he gets healthy. and given the price you would have paid for him, you need to give him that chance unless you are already at a point where you need to make a desperation play.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Ladd McConkey caught 1-of-6 targets for 11 yards in the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Giants.

The good news is, by definition it can’t get any worse unless McConkey somehow goes catch-less in Week 5 against the Commanders. We suppose it can’t be ruled out after McConkey’s receptions fell for the third straight game this afternoon. Yet to spike a week, McConkey is currently a decisive third behind Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston in the Bolts’ targets pecking order. Today was particularly disappointing since the Chargers never led and attempted 41 passes. It’s getting harder and harder to write off McConkey’s slow start as a fluke even if we know he is going to spike a week at some point. He should be considered a low-floor WR3 for next week’s Commanders home date.
- Rotoworld

I said it in the game thread; people vastly underestimated Keenan Allen's ability in this offense. Him not actually being cooked was huge; remember, he was Herbert's favorite target before Ladd was. Also, Quentin Johnson not actually being a bust and playing like a legit threat means Ladd has a lot more competition for targets; that's not factoring in the poor O-line not allowing him to go through progressions OR the presence of Hampton and the TEs (Conklin/Gadsen II).

I dont know why everyone felt he was cooked. Last season he was in an poorly designed offense with a rookie QB, spent some time hurt and never made a real connection with his QB.
the year prior he set career highs in all categories. Now back with the same QB he lit it up with. I figured it was at least 60-75% that he returns and is productive.

and I was able to get him very late in all drafts. given the upside I was happy to take him at a price thats so cheap its nearly free.

i think the fact that Father Time being undefeated weighed heavily on the opinion that Allen was slowing down.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

Ladd McConkey caught 1-of-6 targets for 11 yards in the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Giants.

The good news is, by definition it can’t get any worse unless McConkey somehow goes catch-less in Week 5 against the Commanders. We suppose it can’t be ruled out after McConkey’s receptions fell for the third straight game this afternoon. Yet to spike a week, McConkey is currently a decisive third behind Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston in the Bolts’ targets pecking order. Today was particularly disappointing since the Chargers never led and attempted 41 passes. It’s getting harder and harder to write off McConkey’s slow start as a fluke even if we know he is going to spike a week at some point. He should be considered a low-floor WR3 for next week’s Commanders home date.
- Rotoworld

I said it in the game thread; people vastly underestimated Keenan Allen's ability in this offense. Him not actually being cooked was huge; remember, he was Herbert's favorite target before Ladd was. Also, Quentin Johnson not actually being a bust and playing like a legit threat means Ladd has a lot more competition for targets; that's not factoring in the poor O-line not allowing him to go through progressions OR the presence of Hampton and the TEs (Conklin/Gadsen II).

I dont know why everyone felt he was cooked. Last season he was in an poorly designed offense with a rookie QB, spent some time hurt and never made a real connection with his QB.
the year prior he set career highs in all categories. Now back with the same QB he lit it up with. I figured it was at least 60-75% that he returns and is productive.

and I was able to get him very late in all drafts. given the upside I was happy to take him at a price thats so cheap its nearly free.

Once the Bears changed play callers last year, Keenan averaged 16.7 PPR the last 7 weeks of the season.

 

[Ray_T]

Ladd McConkey caught 1-of-6 targets for 11 yards in the Chargers’ Week 4 loss to the Giants.

The good news is, by definition it can’t get any worse unless McConkey somehow goes catch-less in Week 5 against the Commanders. We suppose it can’t be ruled out after McConkey’s receptions fell for the third straight game this afternoon. Yet to spike a week, McConkey is currently a decisive third behind Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston in the Bolts’ targets pecking order. Today was particularly disappointing since the Chargers never led and attempted 41 passes. It’s getting harder and harder to write off McConkey’s slow start as a fluke even if we know he is going to spike a week at some point. He should be considered a low-floor WR3 for next week’s Commanders home date.
- Rotoworld

I said it in the game thread; people vastly underestimated Keenan Allen's ability in this offense. Him not actually being cooked was huge; remember, he was Herbert's favorite target before Ladd was. Also, Quentin Johnson not actually being a bust and playing like a legit threat means Ladd has a lot more competition for targets; that's not factoring in the poor O-line not allowing him to go through progressions OR the presence of Hampton and the TEs (Conklin/Gadsen II).that

I dont know why everyone felt he was cooked. Last season he was in an poorly designed offense with a rookie QB, spent some time hurt and never made a real connection with his QB.
the year prior he set career highs in all categories. Now back with the same QB he lit it up with. I figured it was at least 60-75% that he returns and is productive.

and I was able to get him very late in all drafts. given the upside I was happy to take him at a price thats so cheap its nearly free.

Once the Bears changed play callers last year, Keenan averaged 16.7 PPR the last 7 weeks of the season.

that too. he was pretty decent down the stretch last year

 

[rockaction]

Interesting observations from Dwain McFarland

https://x.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1973962920112632315

"Ladd McConkey is still a bad MOFO. Watched every route. Dude is open open open open.

Sets up extra space so well. Very sudden. Man. Man press. Zone. Doesn't matter.

Not elite after catch. Deep routes can be hit/miss. Has dropped some balls with contact this year.

Subtle but sudden. That is my description. Does all the little things to set up defenders and maximize the coverage. Then snaps it off when he needs the separation for Herbert." - McFarland on X/Twitter

So he's pretty much saying (or I'm inferring) that Ladd is excellent at getting open but lacks elite yards after the catch ability and his deep routes aren't consistent. Sounds like he's saying (or I'm connecting the dots here) that Ladd is more of a slot/intermediate guy, and not your traditional alpha.

 

[Chaos34]

Interesting observations from Dwain McFarland

https://x.com/dwainmcfarland/status/1973962920112632315

Ladd McConkey is still a bad MOFO.Watched every route. Dude is open open open open.

Sets up extra space so well. Very sudden. Man. Man press. Zone. Doesn't matter.

Not elite after catch. Deep routes can be hit/miss. Has dropped some balls with contact this year.

Subtle but sudden. That is my description. Does all the little things to set up defenders and maximize the coverage. Then snaps it off when he needs the separation for Herbert. - McFarland on X/Twitter

So he's pretty much saying (or I'm inferring) that Ladd is excellent at getting open but lacks elite yards after the catch ability and his deep routes aren't consistent. Sounds like he's saying (or I'm connecting the dots here) that Ladd is more of a slot/intermediate guy, and not your traditional alpha.

I'm in the part of my week where I watch all the condensed versions of the games. I had KC BAL going when I read this. I decided to check out the all22, which is generally too time consuming. Ladd's 1st route, 2nd play of the game, he's completely blanketed by a linebacker, Okereke. He ran a crossing pattern on a route likely designed to clear space in the zone for Allen, who made the catch several yards deeper downfield than was Ladd, who again, was blanketed, no space, not an inch. I'll keep going and report back, but it's 4am and I have a busy morning.

 

[Chaos34]

I broke the all22 hitting the pause button. 18 min into it, he's run one super wicked route and that's the drop being talked about. He looks good. Herbert is looking elsewhere. The other receivers look better. The play designs are sometimes clearly for another receiver. Sometimes Herbert is going through progressions. Sometimes Ladd is 1st, sometimes he's not. I pause at the snap on every play and several times both QJ and Keenan are just quicker off the line, by a yard on the pause. Odd. Dru Phillips has blanketed him 3 times. I have seen one play where Herbert probably should have hit him, but again, QJ was open deeper and made the play. Ladd has another "drop". Quotes because Phillips was all over him, Herbert just dropped it in the bucket. Ladd should have made that play in these days of awesome catches. I'm certainly not seeing what McFarland reported, Rock. But he looks good. Quick, sharp routes, wusses out run blocking, but he's small. The two drops are fantasy difference makers so far. He'll be better.

 

[Chaos34]

So his run blocking is really bad. Could have sprung Hampton just by getting in the way but chose to get out of the way. Keenan is running the wicked routes. Questioning Herbert some too. Twice he's made bad decisions. Had QJ for an easy catch and run TD. Looked elsewhere. Keenan runs an up deep, Ladd breaks under it wide open pretty deep too and wide open as they doubled Keenan and left Ladd uncovered. Herbert stares it down, pats the ball goes another way. That was 30 yards for Ladd and yup he was wide open, but not because of his route. More because both defenders ran with Allen. Fun game. Burns, Thibodeaux, Carter are a problem. I'm dropping Nubin from my idp team. Not in the box enough. /ramble

 

[rockaction]

I broke the all22 hitting the pause button. 18 min into it, he's run one super wicked route and that's the drop being talked about. He looks good. Herbert is looking elsewhere. The other receivers look better. The play designs are sometimes clearly for another receiver. Sometimes Herbert is going through progressions. Sometimes Ladd is 1st, sometimes he's not. I pause at the snap on every play and several times both QJ and Keenan are just quicker off the line, by a yard on the pause. Odd. Dru Phillips has blanketed him 3 times. I have seen one play where Herbert probably should have hit him, but again, QJ was open deeper and made the play. Ladd has another "drop". Quotes because Phillips was all over him, Herbert just dropped it in the bucket. Ladd should have made that play in these days of awesome catches. I'm certainly not seeing what McFarland reported, Rock. But he looks good. Quick, sharp routes, wusses out run blocking, but he's small. The two drops are fantasy difference makers so far. He'll be better.

Heh, yeah, he might not have been open on a couple of plays, but the guys at PFF, the guys at Fantasy Points, and other guys like Matt Harmon that chart it up say he's open all the time. I can only go on what they tell me.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is what Harmon said about his 2024 year:

"Otherwise, everything that was fantastic about his collegiate profile translated beautifully to the pros. His 75.8% success rate vs. man coverage is an excellent mark and leads all 2024 rookie wideouts, narrowly besting Malik Nabers. His 81.8% success rate vs. zone coverage is exactly what you want to see from a slot-leaning receiver and is pretty close to his 83.3% success rate vs. zone from his prospect profile. Simply put, McConkey has all the makings of a player who is going to develop into an elite route runner. And I don’t use the word “elite” lightly when it comes to route runners but McConkey deserves the designation.

His overall success rates are even more impressive because McConkey is the furthest thing from a bunny-hop or popgun slot receiver. He runs big boy routes in the intermediate and deep portions of the field. The only route where McConkey fell below the NFL average was 74.4% and he was just narrowly south of it. You’ll also note that at 16.9% of his chartered routes, he didn’t run slants all that often relative to other players. He was pristine on every other tree branch and was particularly adept at separating on the curl, dig, out and comeback. No coincidence that that’s where the meat of his route tree lies from a usage standpoint. He’s one of the best intermediate wideouts already. You see so many advanced reps from McConkey where he works back to the quarterback to present a reliable target on these intermediate routes, where young receivers usually drift or make throws harder." - Matt Harmon, Reception Perception

Now Harmon has just said in a Yahoo! video that they are running clear-outs for Keenan and QJ, like you were getting at in your comment. But Fantasy Points, as of a week ago, had his separation score as pretty much one of the tops in the league, ESPN Analytics had him at 4th in getting open before the Giants game you're watching and now they have him as ranked 14th, so maybe what you're seeing is very accurate. ESPN considers him the 26th overall receiver by their analytical measures. Last week he was number four or five, so you're likely catching a bad game. And they did play awfully because I watched it.

So hopefully he turns this around, but I think my initial assertion that we should downgrade him in dynasty was really sort of correct. I don't see anything changing so drastically that it elevates him back up to WR11 overall.

 

[Chaos34]

Heh, yeah, he might not have been open on a couple of plays, but the guys at PFF, the guys at Fantasy Points, and other guys like Matt Harmon that chart it up say he's open all the time. I can only go on what they tell me.

Screw those guys. Grifters after likes. I AM WATCHING IT. Every play. Every route. Twice. That's how all22 works. Brothu, they're seeing him wide open on running plays, duh. He did just get open for a long td. Cool play design. Side by side up the field deeeep crossing pattern, and again he's free deep. The design, not the route. The defenders doubled QJ. That's a TD, but Brian Burns is a bad man. Didn't have time.

 

[Chaos34]

Heh, yeah, he might not have been open on a couple of plays, but

But nothing. I'm telling you he's smothered more than he's been open, but he does get open sometimes. That's a more realistic watch of this game. Remember these guys you follow also pimped that adp. They're potentially biased, but I would agree better games are coming. The bad mofo talk is hooey. Keenan is the freak at finding space. Onward.

 

[rockaction]

Screw those guys. Grifters after likes

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Screw those guys. Grifters after likes

Yes

 

[Chaos34]

Okay so in a perfect world through rose colored glasses, he shouldn't have had two drops. He should have had a 45 yard td and a 30 yard deep out. One of those drops was a really tough catch, but all things perfect... 4 more catches for another 120+ yards and a td. Better games coming for sure but unless injured this is a pretty even mix of 3 wrs, one's been red hot, one's been pretty good, one's been left behind. A regression to the mean makes sense for all of them.

 

[rockaction]

Okay so in a perfect world through rose colored glasses, he shouldn't have had two drops. He should have had a 45 yard td and a 30 yard deep out. One of those drops was a really tough catch, but all things perfect... 4 more catches for another 120+ yards and a td. Better games coming for sure but unless injured this is a pretty even mix of 3 wrs, one's been red hot, one's been pretty good, one's been left behind. A regression to the mean makes sense for all of them.

I'm about where you are. I think QJ is now the guy they're looking for and that third down, as Matt Harmon quipped, is "third and Keenan," Gadsden (if they can suffer blocking that is merely adequate) is muscling in there to become another target, and McConkey is left to fend for whatever he can get. Everybody is looking at the Commanders' suspect pass defense and thinking this is the week. I don't know. I don't like the offensive line and its protection, and it was brought up that when Ladd and Herbert were doing really well last year that it was a precision passing game and that busted plays are different. I can see that being a part of it, but the simple facts at hand are that he's not really getting the ball, and if he is, he's not catching it.

 

[IHEARTFF]

good stuff, guys

 

[tricky92]

Been offered Michael Pittman straight up… and can’t make up my mind on what to do.

 

[Doubles]

Been offered Michael Pittman straight up… and can’t make up my mind on what to do.

Didn’t he just get an injury designation for a hamstring mid week?

 

[rockaction]

Well.

2 targets
I catch for 2 yards

1 TD

First of the year. A little excitement

 

[Uncle Leo]

Well.

2 targets
I catch for 2 yards

1 TD

First of the year. A little excitement

I’m ok with a 2 yard TD as long as Badd knows QJ is the new #1.

 

[Mitchie]

Punt return TD called back for roughing the punter

 

[King of the Jungle]

Punt return TD called back for roughing the punter

Did not need to know that.

 

[gbill2004]

He had 112 targets last season. He's on pace for 116 targets this season. Odd start to the season but he'll be fine.

 

[JohnnyU]

He had 112 targets last season. He's on pace for 116 targets this season. Odd start to the season but he'll be fine.

I still feel good enough about McConkey that yesterday I gave up Luther Burden and a 2026 1st for him in one of my dynasty leagues.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think it's worth noting that since that great Week 1 win against KC that seemed to announce a pretty prolific offense...LAC has averaged 17.75 PPG with very pedestrian YPT numbers between QJ/Keenan.

This may be wish casting, but whatever part of their offense they had when McConkey's YPT was above 12 (Week 8 & after)...they probably need to be getting back to that.

 

[Tau837]

I think it's worth noting that since that great Week 1 win against KC that seemed to announce a pretty prolific offense...LAC has averaged 17.75 PPG with very pedestrian YPT numbers between QJ/Keenan.

This may be wish casting, but whatever part of their offense they had when McConkey's YPT was above 12 (Week 8 & after)...they probably need to be getting back to that.

Yeah, tough to do that with:

• All Pro caliber LT Slater out
• All Pro caliber RT now LT Alt out - he played 10 snaps in week 4 and 0 in week 5
• Top free agency signing and 3rd best OL Becton in and out of the lineup, mostly out - he has played 174 of 339 offensive snaps on the season, and 125 of 274 offensive snaps in weeks 2-4
• TE1 Dissly out
• Next highest free agency signing and RB1a/b Harris out
• And now first round draft pick RB1a/b Hampton out

When Alt, Becton, and Hampton are back, they should be able to get back to their week 1 caliber offense. I'm skeptical they will get back to it without them.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think it's worth noting that since that great Week 1 win against KC that seemed to announce a pretty prolific offense...LAC has averaged 17.75 PPG with very pedestrian YPT numbers between QJ/Keenan.

This may be wish casting, but whatever part of their offense they had when McConkey's YPT was above 12 (Week 8 & after)...they probably need to be getting back to that.

Got offered Brian Thomas for him straight up in non-PPR. I guess it comes down to which disappointing second-rounder is more likely to turn it around. With Ladd the question is the OL injuries and the competition for targets, but there's also the fact that, as you say, what they're currently doing isn't working, so they may switch things up. Whereas Jags are winning without major contributions from Thomas

 

[wgoldsph]

I think it's worth noting that since that great Week 1 win against KC that seemed to announce a pretty prolific offense...LAC has averaged 17.75 PPG with very pedestrian YPT numbers between QJ/Keenan.

This may be wish casting, but whatever part of their offense they had when McConkey's YPT was above 12 (Week 8 & after)...they probably need to be getting back to that.

Got offered Brian Thomas for him straight up in non-PPR. I guess it comes down to which disappointing second-rounder is more likely to turn it around. With Ladd the question is the OL injuries and the competition for targets, but there's also the fact that, as you say, what they're currently doing isn't working, so they may switch things up. Whereas Jags are winning without major contributions from Thomas

Non ppr is Thomas without a doubt

McConkey's rise will come with a bunch of short catch and fall type plays. Great for ppr, doesn't do jack in others.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think it's worth noting that since that great Week 1 win against KC that seemed to announce a pretty prolific offense...LAC has averaged 17.75 PPG with very pedestrian YPT numbers between QJ/Keenan.

This may be wish casting, but whatever part of their offense they had when McConkey's YPT was above 12 (Week 8 & after)...they probably need to be getting back to that.

Got offered Brian Thomas for him straight up in non-PPR. I guess it comes down to which disappointing second-rounder is more likely to turn it around. With Ladd the question is the OL injuries and the competition for targets, but there's also the fact that, as you say, what they're currently doing isn't working, so they may switch things up. Whereas Jags are winning without major contributions from Thomas

Non ppr is Thomas without a doubt

McConkey's rise will come with a bunch of short catch and fall type plays. Great for ppr, doesn't do jack in others.

Generally I like McConkey YAC, not just fall down type of guy. At least he did that last year if I’m not mistaken.

 

[wgoldsph]

5’11”, 185 lbs.

Wes Welker - 5'9" 185lbs
Danny Amandola 5'11" 185lbs
Steve Smith - 5'9" 185 lbs
Desean Jackson - 5'10" 175lbs
Zay Flowers 5'9" 180lbs

Welker/Amandola has always been my comp for Ladd. Imagine if he put on a ton of muscle and became Steve Smith though.