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WR Mike Evans, TB (2 Viewers)

Watkins and evans looking like julio and AJG. Kelvin, cooks, obj etc are awesome but these two are long term super studs IMO

 
Rotoworld:

Mike Evans caught seven passes for 125 yards and one touchdown in the Bucs' 27-17, Week 10 loss to the Falcons.

A week after going 7-124-2 against Cleveland, Evans was targeted nine times while working mostly against RCB Robert Alford. He out-leaped the cornerback for a 22-yard touchdown in the side of the end zone in the second quarter before later reeling in a 34-yard grab on the sideline, doing an excellent job of getting both feet in bounds. He does such a great job of winning by using his 6-foot-5, 231-pound frame. With five touchdowns in his last five games, Evans is in the WR2 conversation with the Panthers up next.

Nov 9 - 5:19 PM
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Bronco Billy said:
Some people really outthink themselves in evaluating players. It's almost as if they are trying to create a foolproof formula for quantifying risk, and IMO it can't be done. The unknown variable of the human factor is simply too great.

As such, I try to simply my evaluationing process. In WRs I don't worry so much about measurables as I do about 3 things at the NFL level - 1) can they get separation? 2) Are their hands reliable? And 3) are they intelligent enough to think beyond the assigned route?

2 things create reliable separation in pro WRs - suddenness and fear. Pro CBs know the tricks of the trade when it comes to reading body movement and fakes, and know how to be physical enough to take guys off their routes - either pressing at the line, a subtle tug or hip as the WR slows, or putting their body where the WR wants to go before he gets there. Sudden ability means a WR can get into the CB and then get away from him before he can recover - and recovery for pro CBs is everything. If a WR doesn't have suddenness, then he has to create fear in the CB - that if the CB misses him he can't recover. That comes in two forms: raw speed or YAC. Either one makes a pro CB adjust their coverage to avoid big plays, and consequently creates separation. Without separation, a WR can be the biggest and most athletic guy in the world, but his catch window for the QB is only what the CB can't get to - meaning predominantly high throws to the far shoulder. That's too small for a QB to throw to often and be able to rely on.

Once a guy creates the window that a QB wants to throw into often, he has to be able to reliably hand catch the ball. Pro CBs are masters at getting a hand on an arm or tip the ball just after it arrives. A reliable target catches the ball away from his body, secures it quickly, and has good enough hands to hang onto the ball when conditions aren't perfect - the ball flutters or is tipped, someone is tugging at one arm, vision get screened for an instant, etc.

Then the WR has to be able to get on the same page as the QB. When to break off a route because the CB overplays or overcommits to the designed catch area, when to break off for the back shoulder throw, how to get past the down marker and still create room in order to get the first down. It's not necessarily high IQ as much as it is street smarts - football IQ if you will - and willingness to communicate with the QB.

Give me a WR with those three qualities and the rest is all gravy. It's why I was high on Keenan Allen last year and Lee this year. Take all your combine BS and use it as you will, I'll take the guy who knows how to get open, catches the football when he does, and is on the same page as the QB. That's the guy the QB wants to target a lot. After that, I'll look for all the shiny baubles that might make him special.

With Evans, I see a real problem with his separation ability. He definitely does not have suddenness, and he doesn't have the deep speed or YAC ability that creates fear. Because he can beat a real fast college CB doesn't mean that he'll reliably beat pro CBs who have technique, knowledge, experience, and catch up speed. So I worry about his ability to be a top pro WR. It doesn't mean with his great hands and his size that he won't have value. I just don't see where he is going to excel as a WR1 in the NFL.
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Nice call.

 
Just changed my mind on Evans. No way I'd trade him for Sammy anymore. Thought he was clearly the 2nd best in this class but still a top 15 type dynasty WR. He's just outside the top 5 for me now. Definitely ahead of Watkins.

 
Listen, I'm fully on board the Evans train, and I'm an owner.

But don't go switching your rankings all around based on one game against Jim Haslett's "defense". Make sure your decision is based on everything he's done so far and that this game is just bonus points.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Listen, I'm fully on board the Evans train, and I'm an owner.

But don't go switching your rankings all around based on one game against Jim Haslett's "defense". Make sure your decision is based on everything he's done so far and that this game is just bonus points.
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I agree if it was just 1 game. He's been good all year but a monster the past 3 games. 3 games is a trend.

 
Good lord.

I own Evans, Gordon and Julio in a keeper league and will only be able to keep 2 of 3. Evans is suddenly going to make this very hard.

 
Evans was the Bucs entire pass game, with Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins combining for just 50 yards.

Evans will be a WR1 in Week 12 against the Bears.(Rotoworld.com)

Its almost shocking..(Or is it?)

 
Thought i heard that he only had one year (or very limited) experience in college football. Can anyone confirm that? I wonder how far he can keep developing

 
Xue said:
Bronco Billy said:
Some people really outthink themselves in evaluating players. It's almost as if they are trying to create a foolproof formula for quantifying risk, and IMO it can't be done. The unknown variable of the human factor is simply too great.

As such, I try to simply my evaluationing process. In WRs I don't worry so much about measurables as I do about 3 things at the NFL level - 1) can they get separation? 2) Are their hands reliable? And 3) are they intelligent enough to think beyond the assigned route?

2 things create reliable separation in pro WRs - suddenness and fear. Pro CBs know the tricks of the trade when it comes to reading body movement and fakes, and know how to be physical enough to take guys off their routes - either pressing at the line, a subtle tug or hip as the WR slows, or putting their body where the WR wants to go before he gets there. Sudden ability means a WR can get into the CB and then get away from him before he can recover - and recovery for pro CBs is everything. If a WR doesn't have suddenness, then he has to create fear in the CB - that if the CB misses him he can't recover. That comes in two forms: raw speed or YAC. Either one makes a pro CB adjust their coverage to avoid big plays, and consequently creates separation. Without separation, a WR can be the biggest and most athletic guy in the world, but his catch window for the QB is only what the CB can't get to - meaning predominantly high throws to the far shoulder. That's too small for a QB to throw to often and be able to rely on.

Once a guy creates the window that a QB wants to throw into often, he has to be able to reliably hand catch the ball. Pro CBs are masters at getting a hand on an arm or tip the ball just after it arrives. A reliable target catches the ball away from his body, secures it quickly, and has good enough hands to hang onto the ball when conditions aren't perfect - the ball flutters or is tipped, someone is tugging at one arm, vision get screened for an instant, etc.

Then the WR has to be able to get on the same page as the QB. When to break off a route because the CB overplays or overcommits to the designed catch area, when to break off for the back shoulder throw, how to get past the down marker and still create room in order to get the first down. It's not necessarily high IQ as much as it is street smarts - football IQ if you will - and willingness to communicate with the QB.

Give me a WR with those three qualities and the rest is all gravy. It's why I was high on Keenan Allen last year and Lee this year. Take all your combine BS and use it as you will, I'll take the guy who knows how to get open, catches the football when he does, and is on the same page as the QB. That's the guy the QB wants to target a lot. After that, I'll look for all the shiny baubles that might make him special.

With Evans, I see a real problem with his separation ability. He definitely does not have suddenness, and he doesn't have the deep speed or YAC ability that creates fear. Because he can beat a real fast college CB doesn't mean that he'll reliably beat pro CBs who have technique, knowledge, experience, and catch up speed. So I worry about his ability to be a top pro WR. It doesn't mean with his great hands and his size that he won't have value. I just don't see where he is going to excel as a WR1 in the NFL.
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Nice call.
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Oh yeah - epic call...

This guy really knows what he is talking about - he laid it out so eloquently too...

 
Sarlakticacid said:
Thought i heard that he only had one year (or very limited) experience in college football. Can anyone confirm that? I wonder how far he can keep developing
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He only played football during his senior year, earning second-team District 24-4A honors after making 25 receptions for 648 yards and 7 touchdowns.

fwiw: Evans redshirted his 1st yr in College, but played the next two Seasons..

Im pretty sure you might have Evans confused with another player, but it is interesting to have only one yr in HS (and figure the odds to get a "Division 1" scholarship )

 
Dismattle said:
Sarlakticacid said:
Thought i heard that he only had one year (or very limited) experience in college football. Can anyone confirm that? I wonder how far he can keep developing
Click to expand...
He only played football during his senior year, earning second-team District 24-4A honors after making 25 receptions for 648 yards and 7 touchdowns.

fwiw: Evans redshirted his 1st yr in College, but played the next two Seasons..

Im pretty sure you might have Evans confused with another player, but it is interesting to have only one yr in HS (and figure the odds to get a "Division 1" scholarship )
Click to expand...
So this is still only his 4th year of football which can only be viewed as a positive for him.

 
Love Evans but having a LB covering him on a deep route shouldn't happen again. He's a very good WR, but I'm not sure I would make him a top 3 dynasty play just yet.

 
Ilov80s said:
Love Evans but having a LB covering him on a deep route shouldn't happen again. He's a very good WR, but I'm not sure I would make him a top 3 dynasty play just yet.
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Agree with the TD on the LB. He really should have only had 6/150/1 yesterday. Also agree that he's not in the top tier of dynasty WR's yet, but he's firmly planted in the 2nd tier and wouldn't blink twice if someone took him as the 6th WR in a startup.

 
Ilov80s said:
Love Evans but having a LB covering him on a deep route shouldn't happen again. He's a very good WR, but I'm not sure I would make him a top 3 dynasty play just yet.
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Ok so take that play away (you can't take that play away) and he still had 6-150-1.
 
He's firmly in the top 15 WR in dynasty.

Id personally put him top 10, but top 15, as of today, is a very safe projection.

Top of this class, fimly, imo.

 
Seriously needs to be reposted:

THE FIRST WR SINCE RANDY MOSS TO POST 3 CONSECUTIVE 100YD GAMES, AS A ROOKIE.

 
As a top 5 draft pick he is doing exactly what he is supposed to be doing vs single coverage. I still want to see what he can do when the defenses wake up and start bringing a safety his way.

 
Tron

AJG

Dez

Julio

This is the point where I start thinking of this year's rookie class. I'd take Evans over Jordy Nelson, for instance, because he's 9 years younger and appears to have superior physical tools. You may even prefer Evans to Julio because ATL's line is awful and he gets dinged pretty regularly. I don't know if I would trade Evans for Julio, and I have him barely ahead of Alshon also.

Top 5 dynasty WR to me. Could be overreaction, I don't think so though since it's been 3 weeks with pretty poor QB play and still :drive:

 
Dynasty wise I like him better than Alshon or Floyd, but I have the same questions about being a true #1.

 
fredsavage said:
Tron

AJG

Dez

Julio

This is the point where I start thinking of this year's rookie class. I'd take Evans over Jordy Nelson, for instance, because he's 9 years younger and appears to have superior physical tools. You may even prefer Evans to Julio because ATL's line is awful and he gets dinged pretty regularly. I don't know if I would trade Evans for Julio, and I have him barely ahead of Alshon also.

Top 5 dynasty WR to me. Could be overreaction, I don't think so though since it's been 3 weeks with pretty poor QB play and still :drive:
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Antonio Brown is out there, too.

 
Xue said:
Soulfly3 said:
Seriously needs to be reposted:

THE FIRST WR SINCE RANDY MOSS TO POST 3 CONSECUTIVE 100YD GAMES, AS A ROOKIE.
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Not 100 yards. 100 yards AND a TD.
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even better.

FWIW -

Moss's numbers over those 3 games were:

153/1

163/3

106/3

Evans:

124/2

125/1

209/2

......... Just imagine. He does it again this week (against a very soft defense), and he breaks Randy Moss's record.

WOOF!

 
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