Reception Perception
“What Reception Perception can confirm now is that he’s plainly graduated into the elite tier of NFL receivers and is, at worst, among the five best wideouts in the sport.” - @MattHarmon_BYB
Read the full 2024 Profile and the rest of the WR’s that dropped today in the link below
Love Harmon, but not sure I can get on board with this. The biggest glaring issue is almost any conversation we have with Nico includes the phrase "when he's healthy". He hasn't played a full season yet, and has missed 17 games in just 4 seasons. The Texans also did just about nothing to address the fact they had one of, if not thee, worst offensive line in the league last year. I'd argue they actually got worse, as Tomlinson is just... bad... He grades out average, but looking at how many sacks he gave up/his single block win rate/and the amount of penalties he commits I say put him firmly below average.
I'm not saying Nico is bad, he's obviously a very good WR. But trying to tuck him in the top 5 seems like a gross stretch. Assuming those top 4 are Chase, JJ, Lamb, and Nabers; we are saying Nico is beating out Puka, ARSB, BTJ, London, and Ladd. For my money, I wouldn't have him ahead of any of them. I could see arguments for being ahead of Ladd, but that's it. Aside from the by far worst injury history, and what looks like the worst offense IMO, he's also the oldest. 3.5 older than BTJ and 2.5+ older than Puka, London, and Ladd. Top 10 WR? Sure. But I think anyone drafting him as a top 5 WR will be sorely disappointed. Not just for this year, but especially so in the next 3+ years.
In a 10-12 team Redraft with normal scoring, PPR and you start 3-WR plus maybe 1-2 Flex spots...where would you rank him? I agree Top 5 is a stretch
But Top 10-12 which in this style makes him an easy WR1, a lot of teams would like to have him in the top spot on their WR depth chart
Ever watch him for a whole game and what he does once the ball is in his hands, very difficult to get him on the ground, he's massive
And you are way overlooking his QB as is most of the fantasy community due to his poor OL last season that was largely dismantled
I'd caution you because you won't find many on his level
An AJB/Nico Collins WR/WR on the 1/2 turn seems like a nice way to start if you want to pair two strong WRs that aren't likely to be Top5 but could easily hit Top 10-15 overall on the season
And he's a threat for 1,500+ yds, you do understand that, right? You can't say that about a lot of WRs
Your injury concerns are well documented, you're not off base in discussing them, I just see a lot of talent oozing off Nico and i still think best days are ahead of him.
I would encourage you to watch him more this season when you have the opportunity, I always come away impressed