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WR Nico Collins, HOU (1 Viewer)

17 game pace was:

140 targets, 96 receptions, 1425 yards, 10 TD's.

The year before, he was on pace for 91 receptions, 1469 yards, and 9 TD's.

Houston added a lot of pass catches, but they lost Dell and Diggs. I would expect a bounce back of some degree for Stroud. Expect another top 10 season. I've currently got him at WR7 and that feels too low sometimes.

I am hopeful. I picked him up as one of my foundational pieces to rebuild an orphaned dynasty team. the things I'm concerned about, for this season anyway, is if the line play improves and if they can design a reasonable running game to keep defenses honest. If both of those work out, then I think Nico has a top 3 finish.
 
I'm really pouring over the Nico/St Brown/Puka tier as those are likely going to be my best options in the 1st round this year (keeper league with restrictions) . He's currently my pick in my mind right now.
 
17 game pace was:

140 targets, 96 receptions, 1425 yards, 10 TD's.

The year before, he was on pace for 91 receptions, 1469 yards, and 9 TD's.

Houston added a lot of pass catches, but they lost Dell and Diggs. I would expect a bounce back of some degree for Stroud. Expect another top 10 season. I've currently got him at WR7 and that feels too low sometimes.

I am hopeful. I picked him up as one of my foundational pieces to rebuild an orphaned dynasty team. the things I'm concerned about, for this season anyway, is if the line play improves and if they can design a reasonable running game to keep defenses honest. If both of those work out, then I think Nico has a top 3 finish.
The thing with Nico is he's come off the field a lot the last 2 seasons. If that was a Slowik thing (rotating WRs heavily) then Collins numbers should bump up just from running more routes, and if Stroud's play is closer to (or exceeds) his rookie season, there is absolutely a scenario Nico is WR1 overall.

I'm really pouring over the Nico/St Brown/Puka tier as those are likely going to be my best options in the 1st round this year (keeper league with restrictions) . He's currently my pick in my mind right now.
I like Nico the most of that trio, and I kinda wonder if Amon-Ra is still on that level without Ben Johnson, and with Williams emerging.
 
17 game pace was:

140 targets, 96 receptions, 1425 yards, 10 TD's.

The year before, he was on pace for 91 receptions, 1469 yards, and 9 TD's.

Houston added a lot of pass catches, but they lost Dell and Diggs. I would expect a bounce back of some degree for Stroud. Expect another top 10 season. I've currently got him at WR7 and that feels too low sometimes.

I am hopeful. I picked him up as one of my foundational pieces to rebuild an orphaned dynasty team. the things I'm concerned about, for this season anyway, is if the line play improves and if they can design a reasonable running game to keep defenses honest. If both of those work out, then I think Nico has a top 3 finish.
The thing with Nico is he's come off the field a lot the last 2 seasons. If that was a Slowik thing (rotating WRs heavily) then Collins numbers should bump up just from running more routes, and if Stroud's play is closer to (or exceeds) his rookie season, there is absolutely a scenario Nico is WR1 overall.

I'm really pouring over the Nico/St Brown/Puka tier as those are likely going to be my best options in the 1st round this year (keeper league with restrictions) . He's currently my pick in my mind right now.
I like Nico the most of that trio, and I kinda wonder if Amon-Ra is still on that level without Ben Johnson, and with Williams emerging.
St Brown is the safest imo, I think the offense is good Ben Johnson or not. I'm not sure he has any upside though. I believe Nico could be WR 1, I'm not sure St Brown can.
 
Any new thoughts on Collins? Where has he been going in 12 team per drafts?
ive seen everything from 7 to 16.

I took him 8th overall in my half PPR draft. I like everything I’ve read about him this year. If he stays healthy, it should be a mercurial year for Nico.
Me too. I like his chances a lot this year.

Has he ever stayed healthy though?
 
not what you asked for, but I took him at 1.16 in our 18 team guillotine draft last night.

there were quite a few players taken before him that I wouldn't have taken over him, but Nabers went 1.14 and he is higher on my list than Nico.

Depending on format I have him 6-8 on my list for WR.
 
Reception Perception
“What Reception Perception can confirm now is that he’s plainly graduated into the elite tier of NFL receivers and is, at worst, among the five best wideouts in the sport.” - @MattHarmon_BYB

Read the full 2024 Profile and the rest of the WR’s that dropped today in the link below
Love Harmon, but not sure I can get on board with this. The biggest glaring issue is almost any conversation we have with Nico includes the phrase "when he's healthy". He hasn't played a full season yet, and has missed 17 games in just 4 seasons. The Texans also did just about nothing to address the fact they had one of, if not thee, worst offensive line in the league last year. I'd argue they actually got worse, as Tomlinson is just... bad... He grades out average, but looking at how many sacks he gave up/his single block win rate/and the amount of penalties he commits I say put him firmly below average.

I'm not saying Nico is bad, he's obviously a very good WR. But trying to tuck him in the top 5 seems like a gross stretch. Assuming those top 4 are Chase, JJ, Lamb, and Nabers; we are saying Nico is beating out Puka, ARSB, BTJ, London, and Ladd. For my money, I wouldn't have him ahead of any of them. I could see arguments for being ahead of Ladd, but that's it. Aside from the by far worst injury history, and what looks like the worst offense IMO, he's also the oldest. 3.5 older than BTJ and 2.5+ older than Puka, London, and Ladd. Top 10 WR? Sure. But I think anyone drafting him as a top 5 WR will be sorely disappointed. Not just for this year, but especially so in the next 3+ years.
In a 10-12 team Redraft with normal scoring, PPR and you start 3-WR plus maybe 1-2 Flex spots...where would you rank him? I agree Top 5 is a stretch
But Top 10-12 which in this style makes him an easy WR1, a lot of teams would like to have him in the top spot on their WR depth chart
Ever watch him for a whole game and what he does once the ball is in his hands, very difficult to get him on the ground, he's massive

And you are way overlooking his QB as is most of the fantasy community due to his poor OL last season that was largely dismantled
I'd caution you because you won't find many on his level

An AJB/Nico Collins WR/WR on the 1/2 turn seems like a nice way to start if you want to pair two strong WRs that aren't likely to be Top5 but could easily hit Top 10-15 overall on the season
And he's a threat for 1,500+ yds, you do understand that, right? You can't say that about a lot of WRs
Your injury concerns are well documented, you're not off base in discussing them, I just see a lot of talent oozing off Nico and i still think best days are ahead of him.
I would encourage you to watch him more this season when you have the opportunity, I always come away impressed


As I addressed in my post, I know his line was dismantled. They removed the far and away best piece of that line in Tunsil. And the pieces they added are garbage, to be quite frank. But I'll let the team speak for me when we all see them play this season. Not to say the Texans as a whole won't improve, but there is absolutely 0 indication that the line will improve. I'm a firm believer in two things with OL; 1. Don't need 5 elite players, but 1 very poor one is enough to spoil the soup and 2. Familiarity and cohesion is vastly underrated. Point 2 leading me to believe they almost would have been better off keeping the below average lineman they had than swapping them out for new below average lineman because at least that way would have given another year of consistency and familiarity between the lineman themselves. Being able to group think/predict what the guy next to you will do before he does it helps bump up below average individual skills IMO.
CJ can't throw to these guys if he's not upright
100% this. I'll throw it in the Higgins thread but really it applies to everyone on this team not named Nico.... I would not feel warm and fuzzy about this line. There was a point in the 2000s where I kept saying as a Steelers fan "well, it's not like our line could get worse". Spoiler alert, it could and it did. It was their number one draft need coming in, and with their 9 picks they took ONE, an OT, who Zierline graded out as "will eventually become an average starter". And this is after trading away their only highly graded lineman of the bunch Tunsil.

I'm avoiding this entire team in redraft. And again, outside Nico who should be able to survive on talent and a high target share, I wouldn't feel great about any of these guys doing much in dynasty for at least a year or two. It feels like their gameplan will be to have a top 6 defense again, control the clock, and keep games close and low scoring.
 
Well that was a disaster. Rams took care of them
They made the Rams defense look like a top 5 unit, which maybe they will be, but it wasn't on my bingo card. If you got Nico where his ADP was falling to the turn, early 2nd round I think you'll be fine (if he also stays healthy), but man... I would not be expecting miracles. I think if he squeezes into the bottom end of the WR1s it would be a win. OLs don't just magically get better in the middle of the year. Think their schedule is sneaky bad defensively too. Like I said a couple months ago, I expect low scoring run out the clock type games.
 
Man, does he need Kirk back. Or somebody. Is he just tripled constantly, Stroud barely looks to him.
He has 8 targets with 11 minutes left in the fourth.
yeah he just had 3 on that drive
I know. They just gave him three cracks at a TD. Targets are seldom evenly distributed over four quarters. It only matters how many they end up with. Down four, I expect he'll see a few more on their next drive.
 
Man, does he need Kirk back. Or somebody. Is he just tripled constantly, Stroud barely looks to him.
He has 8 targets with 11 minutes left in the fourth.
yeah he just had 3 on that drive
I know. They just gave him three cracks at a TD. Targets are seldom evenly distributed over four quarters. It only matters how many they end up with. Down four, I expect he'll see a few more on their next drive.
And this is somewhat an extension of last week, Stroud so throughly distributed the ball, without sitting through an all 22 , I would assume Collins is, rightly, blanketed.

Hence needing Kirk or some kind of alternate threat.
 
Man, does he need Kirk back. Or somebody. Is he just tripled constantly, Stroud barely looks to him.
He has 8 targets with 11 minutes left in the fourth.
yeah he just had 3 on that drive
I know. They just gave him three cracks at a TD. Targets are seldom evenly distributed over four quarters. It only matters how many they end up with. Down four, I expect he'll see a few more on their next drive.
And this is somewhat an extension of last week, Stroud so throughly distributed the ball, without sitting through an all 22 , I would assume Collins is, rightly, blanketed.

Hence needing Kirk or some kind of alternate threat.
I did not watch last week but Nico has 9 targets on 24 attempts. That's a massive share

My concern would be how inaccurate Stroud has been. He seems to have no touch on the ball tonight. I hope that's an aberration.
 
Man, does he need Kirk back. Or somebody. Is he just tripled constantly, Stroud barely looks to him.
He has 8 targets with 11 minutes left in the fourth.
yeah he just had 3 on that drive
I know. They just gave him three cracks at a TD. Targets are seldom evenly distributed over four quarters. It only matters how many they end up with. Down four, I expect he'll see a few more on their next drive.
And this is somewhat an extension of last week, Stroud so throughly distributed the ball, without sitting through an all 22 , I would assume Collins is, rightly, blanketed.

Hence needing Kirk or some kind of alternate threat.
I did not watch last week but Nico has 9 targets on 24 attempts. That's a massive share

My concern would be how inaccurate Stroud has been. He seems to have no touch on the ball tonight. I hope that's an aberration.
September football in the modern day NFL... Stroud missed Nico on that 1 yd TD pass... probably a perfect throw in Oct. As Aikman pointed out, Collins takes that route at more of an angle he scores (instead of tackled at the 1).

It's messy first couple of weeks. More live action reps needed.
 
Man, does he need Kirk back. Or somebody. Is he just tripled constantly, Stroud barely looks to him.
He has 8 targets with 11 minutes left in the fourth.
yeah he just had 3 on that drive
I know. They just gave him three cracks at a TD. Targets are seldom evenly distributed over four quarters. It only matters how many they end up with. Down four, I expect he'll see a few more on their next drive.
And this is somewhat an extension of last week, Stroud so throughly distributed the ball, without sitting through an all 22 , I would assume Collins is, rightly, blanketed.

Hence needing Kirk or some kind of alternate threat.
I did not watch last week but Nico has 9 targets on 24 attempts. That's a massive share

My concern would be how inaccurate Stroud has been. He seems to have no touch on the ball tonight. I hope that's an aberration.
September football in the modern day NFL... Stroud missed Nico on that 1 yd TD pass... probably a perfect throw in Oct. As Aikman pointed out, Collins takes that route at more of an angle he scores (instead of tackled at the 1).

It's messy first couple of weeks. More live action reps needed.
Definitely had this in mind as an overall note to slumping studs, fair point.
 
I really wanted to buy Collins "low" but after last week I am not entirely sure I'd be able to get him. How does he project ROS? Are you trusting Stroud and this passing attack enough to spend big on Collins if you have a need at WR?
 
I really wanted to buy Collins "low" but after last week I am not entirely sure I'd be able to get him. How does he project ROS? Are you trusting Stroud and this passing attack enough to spend big on Collins if you have a need at WR?

I wouldn't spend big. I thought he was a dark horse for being wr1 overall and would be a consistent scorer week in and out. Now he feels like Garrett Wilson from last year. Still has value, but you feel more comfortable if he is your wr2 or 3 and not your best fantasy wr.
 

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