WR Nico Collins, HOU (1 Viewer)

[top dog]

He should also be in the early conversation for non-injury (before last night) bust of the year. He's got 3 TDs, which has propped up his fantasy stats, but he has only one game of more than 4 receptions and only one game over 79 receiving yards. Granted, Stroud and the offensive ecosystem aren't doing him any favors, but I would say many equal (or lesser) WRs have their own QB issues and are producing just as much.

Welllllll... As a Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. holder in the same league, I gotta say it's been a pretty tough start of the year.

 

[Dizzy]

Weird thing... it felt like Nico Collins was the hottest WR in the league in 2023 on an up-and-coming AFC power in the Texans. Started out great in 2024, then had the hamstring injury on that long bomb TD... and he hasn't been the same guy ever since coming back later in 2024 season.

 

[Houston turmOiler]

The biggest non-injury, first round bust I've ever had in redraft. Unless the Texans address that offensive line in the off-season I'll be staying away in the future.

Tunsil has the 3rd best pass blocking grade among OT. Run blocking is top 30%. Only 5 penalties per this source: https://www.nflpenalties.com/player/l-tunsil-houston-texans?year=2025

Hmmmm....well everyone is saying the O Line is to blame. If that's not the case, then it's on Stroud? Or something else?

It's not just one thing but CJ is shook and often not throwing catchable balls. It starts at the top with a poorly structured team by Caserio and Demeco's inability to be a HEAD Coach (not a player's coach i.e. no discipline) and not a DC (clueless in regards to the Offensive game). And of course, Caley is in over his head. Dude looks like a JV football coach stuck on his iPad trying to make sense of what's going on. It's frustrating to watch. This team should be much better than the Jets with all their talent and expectations.

This. As much as I hated Slowik, he at least knew how to use Nico. But Caley is worse. It feels like watching the expansion season Texans offense and seeing another quarterback get ruined. The whole thing is a disaster.

 

[Jewell]

HOU should move on from him, he's a clown.

How is Nico Collins a clown? I’ve never got that vibe from him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

HOU should move on from him, he's a clown.

How is Nico Collins a clown? I’ve never got that vibe from him.

Same - seems like one of the more modest / subdued top WR in the game. Never caught a diva vibe from him. Seems like a great guy.

 

[GroveDiesel]

He should also be in the early conversation for non-injury (before last night) bust of the year. He's got 3 TDs, which has propped up his fantasy stats, but he has only one game of more than 4 receptions and only one game over 79 receiving yards. Granted, Stroud and the offensive ecosystem aren't doing him any favors, but I would say many equal (or lesser) WRs have their own QB issues and are producing just as much.

Welllllll... As a Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. holder in the same league, I gotta say it's been a pretty tough start of the year.

Hahaha, what a loser you are. Not like me who made sure to offset any risk of those guys regressing by also adding up and coming stud Ladd McConkey. Pair those 3 studs up with top 3 projected QB Jayden Daniels and clearly I am dominating my league.

The regression from Nico I honestly just didn’t see coming. What’s most concerning is that it hasn’t JUST been that Stroud and the O-line has been bad. Nico has also dropped some huge passes that would have went for big plays. When the opportunities are rare and you don’t cash them, things get real bad.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He should also be in the early conversation for non-injury (before last night) bust of the year. He's got 3 TDs, which has propped up his fantasy stats, but he has only one game of more than 4 receptions and only one game over 79 receiving yards. Granted, Stroud and the offensive ecosystem aren't doing him any favors, but I would say many equal (or lesser) WRs have their own QB issues and are producing just as much.

Welllllll... As a Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. holder in the same league, I gotta say it's been a pretty tough start of the year.

Hahaha, what a loser you are. Not like me who made sure to offset any risk of those guys regressing by also adding up and coming stud Ladd McConkey. Pair those 3 studs up with top 3 projected QB Jayden Daniels and clearly I am dominating my league.

The regression from Nico I honestly just didn’t see coming. What’s most concerning is that it hasn’t JUST been that Stroud and the O-line has been bad. Nico has also dropped some huge passes that would have went for big plays. When the opportunities are rare and you don’t cash them, things get real bad.

First, he dropped what should have been a long TD last night. No excusing that.

But a thing I’ve noticed, even with top guys like Chase, JJ, Lamb, etc is that when their usage is so infrequent, when they do have opportunities they make dumb mistakes like that drop. That SEA game had so much riding on every touch, every possession, they just never got into any sort of rhythm.

Againx not making an excuse for that drop. Just saying I kinda understand why they happen to ordinarily reliable dudes.

 

[rockaction]

He should also be in the early conversation for non-injury (before last night) bust of the year. He's got 3 TDs, which has propped up his fantasy stats, but he has only one game of more than 4 receptions and only one game over 79 receiving yards. Granted, Stroud and the offensive ecosystem aren't doing him any favors, but I would say many equal (or lesser) WRs have their own QB issues and are producing just as much.

Welllllll... As a Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. holder in the same league, I gotta say it's been a pretty tough start of the year.

Hahaha, what a loser you are. Not like me who made sure to offset any risk of those guys regressing by also adding up and coming stud Ladd McConkey. Pair those 3 studs up with top 3 projected QB Jayden Daniels and clearly I am dominating my league.

The regression from Nico I honestly just didn’t see coming. What’s most concerning is that it hasn’t JUST been that Stroud and the O-line has been bad. Nico has also dropped some huge passes that would have went for big plays. When the opportunities are rare and you don’t cash them, things get real bad.

You guys are all losers because I have the trifecta of Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Nico Collins.

I am not making that up. They have started every week for me except for Nico’s bye week.

Is this why I am so grumpy all the time? Well, that team (they have started literally every week they can) is somehow 7-0 and leads the league in points. That is not a humblebrag—it’s an amazeballs brag.

I have no idea how it is happening. My top RB in a start 1QB, 1RB, 1TE, 2WR, 1RB/TE Flex, 3RB/WR/TE Flex is Breece Hall. He is not in the top 24 RBs, I think.

It also requires 9 IDP starters, and none of mine crack the top 50 dynasty IDP overall.

Yep. This is all true.

eta* Breece Hall is #19 in our league, which is PPR with everything else standard besides points for tackles due to IDP scoring.

eta2* Derrick Brown might crack the top 50 overall in DT-required leagues like ours

 

[mjb03003]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

 

[msudaisy26]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

Put him on the trade block in my dynasty league and nothing.

 

[Major]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

Put him on the trade block in my dynasty league and nothing.

Think he's probably out against SF as well

 

[rockaction]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't think the process is great, but I can see it if I squint. I'd almost rather sit on an asset that doesn't seem too steady right now. I think you don't like Nico and you like Justin Fields. I was going to be snarky but you seem like an okay dude. I think your judgment is way off on these two guys, but I can see evidence of the possibility of this in trends that aren't going Nico's way.

I see absolutely nothing, ever, for Justin. I haven’t ever seen it, and I don't think we ever will; and at some point you need evidence for your beliefs or thoughts or those thoughts and beliefs are just wishcasting. There is more evidence that God and angels actually exist than there is for Justin Fields as a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.

So then when I see this about Nico and then I see your listed reason is his age—and that age is way too young for the claim against him, I wonder if you're just wishcasting a lot and lacking in reasoned judgments writ large.

I should qualify that. I think your reasoning is there, if flawed a bit in its specifics. I shouldn’t say “way too young” when it is 27.5. I get it, maybe. If you do every day all day leagues with buy-ins against dumb money that is learning on the job, you might get a 25 year-old surefire stud that scores close to as many points and is in a better situation for the extra two years. But is that a reality with people who do this every day and all day?

So I think your broad concerns are correct, but the finer details might be missing either accuracy or not counterweighted with other legitimate concerns. I also don't think you're exercising empirical wisdom to go along with the reasoning in these cases. Some guys are all theory and no game, some edges cannot be exploited forever, xFP unrealized doesn’t always regress to a mean—it sits its *** on the bench, and there are a whole ton of other things to learn about theory and practice.

I think this is one of those times.

eta* for clarity and not content nor analysis

 

[rockaction]

That is completely my first blush opinion and you could be a heck of a fantasy player/GM for all I truly know.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't think the process is great, but I can see it if I squint. I'd almost rather sit on an asset that doesn't seem too steady right now. I think you don't like Nico and you like Justin Fields. I was going to be snarky but you seem like an okay dude. I think your judgment is way off on these two guys, but I can see evidence of the possibility of this in trends that aren't going Nico's way.

I see absolutely nothing, ever, for Justin. I haven’t ever seen it, and I don't think we ever will; and at some point you need evidence for your beliefs or thoughts or those thoughts and beliefs are just wishcasting. There is more evidence for God and angels actually existing than there is for Justin Fields as a quarterback in the NFL.

So then when I see this about Nico and your listed reason of his age is way too young for the claim against him, I wonder if you're just wishcasting a lot and lacking in reasoned judgments writ large.

I should qualify that. I think your reasoning is there, if flawed a bit in its specifics. I shouldn’t say “way too young.” 27.5. I get it, maybe. If you do every day all day leagues with buy-ins against dumb money that is learning on the job, you might get a 25 year-old surefire stud that scores close to as many points and is in a better situation for the extra two years. But is that a reality with people who do this every day and all day?

So I think your broad concerns are correct, but the finer details might be missing either accuracy or not counterweighted with other legitimate concerns. I also don't think you're exercising empirical wisdom to go along with the reasoning in these cases. Some guys are all theory and no game, some edges cannot be exploited forever, XFP unrealized doesn’t always regress to a mean—it sits its *** on the bench, and there is a whole ton of other **** to learn about theory and practice.

I think this is one of those times

I think bringing up his age is somewhat fair. This time next year he'll be roughly the same age as AJ Brown is now. I don't know if you've tried to trade AJB lately but he may as well be 35 years old on the trade market because he's treated like a geriatric.

When you're that age if you're not performing top tier the value just disappears.

One of the interesting things about fantasy cliches is that when most people say "I'd rather sell a year too early than a year too late", they're already selling a year too late.

 

[rockaction]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't think the process is great, but I can see it if I squint. I'd almost rather sit on an asset that doesn't seem too steady right now. I think you don't like Nico and you like Justin Fields. I was going to be snarky but you seem like an okay dude. I think your judgment is way off on these two guys, but I can see evidence of the possibility of this in trends that aren't going Nico's way.

I see absolutely nothing, ever, for Justin. I haven’t ever seen it, and I don't think we ever will; and at some point you need evidence for your beliefs or thoughts or those thoughts and beliefs are just wishcasting. There is more evidence for God and angels actually existing than there is for Justin Fields as a quarterback in the NFL.

So then when I see this about Nico and your listed reason of his age is way too young for the claim against him, I wonder if you're just wishcasting a lot and lacking in reasoned judgments writ large.

I should qualify that. I think your reasoning is there, if flawed a bit in its specifics. I shouldn’t say “way too young.” 27.5. I get it, maybe. If you do every day all day leagues with buy-ins against dumb money that is learning on the job, you might get a 25 year-old surefire stud that scores close to as many points and is in a better situation for the extra two years. But is that a reality with people who do this every day and all day?

So I think your broad concerns are correct, but the finer details might be missing either accuracy or not counterweighted with other legitimate concerns. I also don't think you're exercising empirical wisdom to go along with the reasoning in these cases. Some guys are all theory and no game, some edges cannot be exploited forever, XFP unrealized doesn’t always regress to a mean—it sits its *** on the bench, and there is a whole ton of other **** to learn about theory and practice.

I think this is one of those times

I think bringing up his age is somewhat fair. This time next year he'll be roughly the same age as AJ Brown is now. I don't know if you've tried to trade AJB lately but he may as well be 35 years old on the trade market because he's treated like a geriatric.

When you're that age if you're not performing top tier the value just disappears.

One of the interesting things about fantasy cliches is that when most people say "I'd rather sell a year too early than a year too late", they're already selling a year too late.

I agree with you. My post is heavily qualified. I would start by asserting that the maxims pertaining to the dynasty value market for football players are pretty much already baked into the market and that renders any fantasy maxim conditional at best. That's the abstract part, but it's not really being intentionally obtuse. I'm saying most people are already factoring in all these things in really good leagues.

There is one assumption I'm making here and that is this: people just don't make glaringly irrational choices. They don't trade an object valued solely for its luster for another object valued solely for its luster if their object has more luster than the object they could acquire. They won't even trade it for even luster due to familiarity and transaction cost. Given that, there has to be another form of value, and that value must be different than the one sought for acquisition. Basically, there have to be different ways for each person to value a thing, and then there has to be a trade-off somewhere.

So with fantasy football and the age valuation conundrum, the qualifications that I would give about the OP's use of age are:

a) In fantasy football, there is usually a definite trade-off with points scored that comes with youth. Nobody is selling you a 24 year-old scoring the same amount of points (all other things constant) as Nico is or could in exchange for Nico. One of those trade-offs is likely the points scored by the player, likely in the current year and the next year. Nobody projects a guy to score 150 points this year and then 200 points next year and trades him for an older guy who is likely to score 175 for each year. It doesn't happen very often.

b) he did say that Nico would be 27.5 years old "going into next season." That's sort of a huge, enormous, significant qualification to a category that he brings up and it's an assumption he's making there. Do you know what I mean? I'm not trying to be caustic; I'm trying to ascertain if that phrase has the same effect on you that it does on me. I would like to know his current age, please. If we're urgently trading him, that's a half of a season you're losing Nico's points for (as I pointed out in "a") in exchange for probably fewer points this year and next.

c) what is your team like and are you winning now? How does Nico and his concussion fit into your plans, etc. etc.?

These are a few quick counterweighted concerns I'm talking about. I'm also not assuming a casual league or a league where richer folks spend money and learn as they go along, or as in I think a lot of cases, are brimming with dollars and ego and not a lot of football knowledge.

That's what I'm saying. You're going to trade a universally ranked top 10 receiver (that's where I'm really backpedaling with our poster because I roster Nico and I think he's more top fifteen-twenty and maybe sliding—but if we're writing it, it's already most likely baked into his value) for which player or what draft capital? How is the player? What is the draft class like and the pick likely to be? And are you sure you're dialed into it enough to make that prediction, be able to acquire the player you think might fit the bill, have that player in the right situation, etc. etc.?

It's easy to say "move a top-ten receiver. He's going to be 27.5 to start the year next year." I want to know whether you've thought about many, many more things than I'm listing here (this is just the beginning of it) and if you are, whether you think it's still prudent to shop him.

 

[zamboni]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't disagree that he's a sell, as we may have seen the peak of Nico already. But I don't think it's age-related, as that's not old at all for a WR if you think he has 3 good years left. RB is obviously a different story if you're not named Derrick Henry.

 

[mjb03003]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't think the process is great, but I can see it if I squint. I'd almost rather sit on an asset that doesn't seem too steady right now. I think you don't like Nico and you like Justin Fields. I was going to be snarky but you seem like an okay dude. I think your judgment is way off on these two guys, but I can see evidence of the possibility of this in trends that aren't going Nico's way.

I see absolutely nothing, ever, for Justin. I haven’t ever seen it, and I don't think we ever will; and at some point you need evidence for your beliefs or thoughts or those thoughts and beliefs are just wishcasting. There is more evidence that God and angels actually exist than there is for Justin Fields as a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.

So then when I see this about Nico and then I see your listed reason is his age—and that age is way too young for the claim against him, I wonder if you're just wishcasting a lot and lacking in reasoned judgments writ large.

I should qualify that. I think your reasoning is there, if flawed a bit in its specifics. I shouldn’t say “way too young” when it is 27.5. I get it, maybe. If you do every day all day leagues with buy-ins against dumb money that is learning on the job, you might get a 25 year-old surefire stud that scores close to as many points and is in a better situation for the extra two years. But is that a reality with people who do this every day and all day?

So I think your broad concerns are correct, but the finer details might be missing either accuracy or not counterweighted with other legitimate concerns. I also don't think you're exercising empirical wisdom to go along with the reasoning in these cases. Some guys are all theory and no game, some edges cannot be exploited forever, xFP unrealized doesn’t always regress to a mean—it sits its *** on the bench, and there are a whole ton of other things to learn about theory and practice.

I think this is one of those times.

eta* for clarity and not content nor analysis

I'm trying to be respectful here but multiple mentions of my lack of "reasoned judgements" and not exercising "empirical wisdom" feels more than a little personal and unnecessary.

I really see no need for my previous posts about Justin Fields to come into the conversation here. That's purely you trying to denigrate my knowledge because I have a completely unrelated position you disagree with. I've been pretty clear in the Fields thread that I'm a Fields "apologist" but I don't disagree that the results on the field (real life football) speak for themselves at this point. All that said, for fantasy he will always be intriguing whenever (if ever) he's starting. I also mentioned that I hate watching the games or the box score when he's playing and prefer to just look at the final line because usually it's a horror show for 3.5 quarters but he ends up with top-12 QB numbers when all is said and done. I know you're a Jets fan and you're not happy with what he's done for your franchise this season and the mess it's created. I understand that. You watch the games from start to finish (I assume) and are disgusted with his play and feel very confident he's not a legitimate NFL QB and I respect your analysis there. Happy to leave that there if you are.

Back to Nico Collins. I think I've laid this out as well as I can earlier in this thread. I'll have to link back to it at some point, but I wasn't looking to start a whole "I told you so" vibe with my posting. First and foremost, his age and injury history are major concerns, for me, and I think will become a larger issue with the fantasy community in general if/when he misses time with this concussion and then continues to struggle to produce WR1 numbers when he's back on the field. It seems, for whatever, reason, people are treating him like a younger/healthier player than he is because he was a late bloomer and his first two years in the league he was not even on the fantasy radar. He's not "old" by any means but I've seen it time and time again that a ~27-year-old WR who is still producing at an elite level is simply not valued on the dynasty trade market. AJ Brown is the best example I can think of. He's had a longer run of elite production than Collins (by about 4 years) and had just turned 28 before this season and yet he was impossible to get good value for in dynasty. Depending on how your dynasty team is built, it may not matter to you if Nico's market value is declining. You may be content, and it may be the correct move, to sit on him and hope he stays healthy and the Texans offense gets fixed and he can produce at a high level for many more years for you. That's exactly what I'm doing with AJ Brown in many leagues, but I think it's worth discussing in this forum that if/when Nico owners want or need to sell, he looks likely to follow a similar path to AJB, and may already be trending that way. He's the WR13 in dynasty according to KTC, after being safely in the top 10 and commanding 1st round redraft draft capital this offseason/preseason. Before anyone jumps on me for citing KTC, I consider it a useful tool to gauge how the masses feel about players - nothing more, nothing less. AJ Brown is WR19 on there currently, and yeah, he's had some ups and downs this season but as I said he was already very difficult to get good value for BEFORE the season. From my experience in real dynasty leagues, Brown fetches more like WR25 prices in trades. People just don't want to get stuck holding a guy when the situation around him isn't great AND the player is approaching the age apex.

Part of my concern for Collins is the Texans offensive system. The O-line still looks bad. Stroud is under constant pressure. I don't know if it's coaching, playcalling, some combination of the two, or maybe Stroud is just playing scared, whatever it is, maybe someone like yourself with a trained eye can watch all the games and report back on what exactly isn't working there, but it feels like they aren't going to have a strong enough passing game for Nico Collins to get back to elite WR1 production, and him dealing with a concussion and potentially missing game(s) isn't going to help.

 

[mjb03003]

a) In fantasy football, there is usually a definite trade-off with points scored that comes with youth. Nobody is selling you a 24 year-old scoring the same amount of points (all other things constant) as Nico is or could in exchange for Nico. One of those trade-offs is likely the points scored by the player, likely in the current year and the next year. Nobody projects a guy to score 150 points this year and then 200 points next year and trades him for an older guy who is likely to score 175 for each year. It doesn't happen very often.

b) he did say that Nico would be 27.5 years old "going into next season." That's sort of a huge, enormous, significant qualification to a category that he brings up and it's an assumption he's making there. Do you know what I mean? I'm not trying to be caustic; I'm trying to ascertain if that phrase has the same effect on you that it does on me. I would like to know his current age, please. If we're urgently trading him, that's a half of a season you're losing Nico's points for (as I pointed out in "a") in exchange for probably fewer points this year and next.

c) what is your team like and are you winning now? How does Nico and his concussion fit into your plans, etc. etc.?

Point A I would disagree with. Nico is averaging 12.78 ppg this season and there are any number of 24 year-old (or younger) WRs scoring more who could likely be had in a 1:1 trade or more likely you could get more on top for Collins, and my point is you may very well be smart to do so (especially if you can get the + on top).

Point B okay yes, he's 26 years and 7 months old right now. In dynasty buyers are often looking ahead and considering a players trajectory over the next 1, 2, 3 years. Most sharp dynasty owners don't look beyond 2 or 3 years from my experience, but they do look ahead and consider whether a player is likely to gain, hold, or lose value in the short and intermediate term. It's sort of baked into the market as you pointed out so eloquently, but I wasn't trying to deceive people here by citing his age next year, I was re-framing it because that's the specific age we typically see players value decline REGARDLESS of their production.

Point C - yes, of course... team and league context is always important. It's difficult to post about a player and cover every possible scenario where you could see value in buying or selling. Anytime someone is labeled a "sell" of course there has to be a buyer on the other side...

It's easy to say "move a top-ten receiver. He's going to be 27.5 to start the year next year." I want to know whether you've thought about many, many more things than I'm listing here (this is just the beginning of it) and if you are, whether you think it's still prudent to shop him.

I think this is where you're penalizing me for my posts about Justin Fields that you don't agree with. Of course I've thought about many more things. Apologies for not citing the type of reasoning and empirical wisdom you desire in my initial post. I don't always have time to get into the weeds like that and thought the age and injury history was the most obvious concern for his value moving forward.

 

[Smack Tripper]

He’ll be 27.5 going into next season. He’s been a sell for me in dynasty and I think the window to cash out at good value is closing fast.

I don't think the process is great, but I can see it if I squint. I'd almost rather sit on an asset that doesn't seem too steady right now. I think you don't like Nico and you like Justin Fields. I was going to be snarky but you seem like an okay dude. I think your judgment is way off on these two guys, but I can see evidence of the possibility of this in trends that aren't going Nico's way.

I see absolutely nothing, ever, for Justin. I haven’t ever seen it, and I don't think we ever will; and at some point you need evidence for your beliefs or thoughts or those thoughts and beliefs are just wishcasting. There is more evidence that God and angels actually exist than there is for Justin Fields as a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.

So then when I see this about Nico and then I see your listed reason is his age—and that age is way too young for the claim against him, I wonder if you're just wishcasting a lot and lacking in reasoned judgments writ large.

I should qualify that. I think your reasoning is there, if flawed a bit in its specifics. I shouldn’t say “way too young” when it is 27.5. I get it, maybe. If you do every day all day leagues with buy-ins against dumb money that is learning on the job, you might get a 25 year-old surefire stud that scores close to as many points and is in a better situation for the extra two years. But is that a reality with people who do this every day and all day?

So I think your broad concerns are correct, but the finer details might be missing either accuracy or not counterweighted with other legitimate concerns. I also don't think you're exercising empirical wisdom to go along with the reasoning in these cases. Some guys are all theory and no game, some edges cannot be exploited forever, xFP unrealized doesn’t always regress to a mean—it sits its *** on the bench, and there are a whole ton of other things to learn about theory and practice.

I think this is one of those times.

eta* for clarity and not content nor analysis

I'm trying to be respectful here but multiple mentions of my lack of "reasoned judgements" and not exercising "empirical wisdom" feels more than a little personal and unnecessary.

I really see no need for my previous posts about Justin Fields to come into the conversation here. That's purely you trying to denigrate my knowledge because I have a completely unrelated position you disagree with. I've been pretty clear in the Fields thread that I'm a Fields "apologist" but I don't disagree that the results on the field (real life football) speak for themselves at this point. All that said, for fantasy he will always be intriguing whenever (if ever) he's starting. I also mentioned that I hate watching the games or the box score when he's playing and prefer to just look at the final line because usually it's a horror show for 3.5 quarters but he ends up with top-12 QB numbers when all is said and done. I know you're a Jets fan and you're not happy with what he's done for your franchise this season and the mess it's created. I understand that. You watch the games from start to finish (I assume) and are disgusted with his play and feel very confident he's not a legitimate NFL QB and I respect your analysis there. Happy to leave that there if you are.

Back to Nico Collins. I think I've laid this out as well as I can earlier in this thread. I'll have to link back to it at some point, but I wasn't looking to start a whole "I told you so" vibe with my posting. First and foremost, his age and injury history are major concerns, for me, and I think will become a larger issue with the fantasy community in general if/when he misses time with this concussion and then continues to struggle to produce WR1 numbers when he's back on the field. It seems, for whatever, reason, people are treating him like a younger/healthier player than he is because he was a late bloomer and his first two years in the league he was not even on the fantasy radar. He's not "old" by any means but I've seen it time and time again that a ~27-year-old WR who is still producing at an elite level is simply not valued on the dynasty trade market. AJ Brown is the best example I can think of. He's had a longer run of elite production than Collins (by about 4 years) and had just turned 28 before this season and yet he was impossible to get good value for in dynasty. Depending on how your dynasty team is built, it may not matter to you if Nico's market value is declining. You may be content, and it may be the correct move, to sit on him and hope he stays healthy and the Texans offense gets fixed and he can produce at a high level for many more years for you. That's exactly what I'm doing with AJ Brown in many leagues, but I think it's worth discussing in this forum that if/when Nico owners want or need to sell, he looks likely to follow a similar path to AJB, and may already be trending that way. He's the WR13 in dynasty according to KTC, after being safely in the top 10 and commanding 1st round redraft draft capital this offseason/preseason. Before anyone jumps on me for citing KTC, I consider it a useful tool to gauge how the masses feel about players - nothing more, nothing less. AJ Brown is WR19 on there currently, and yeah, he's had some ups and downs this season but as I said he was already very difficult to get good value for BEFORE the season. From my experience in real dynasty leagues, Brown fetches more like WR25 prices in trades. People just don't want to get stuck holding a guy when the situation around him isn't great AND the player is approaching the age apex.

Part of my concern for Collins is the Texans offensive system. The O-line still looks bad. Stroud is under constant pressure. I don't know if it's coaching, playcalling, some combination of the two, or maybe Stroud is just playing scared, whatever it is, maybe someone like yourself with a trained eye can watch all the games and report back on what exactly isn't working there, but it feels like they aren't going to have a strong enough passing game for Nico Collins to get back to elite WR1 production, and him dealing with a concussion and potentially missing game(s) isn't going to help.

The age is a viable concern, both these guys have a lot of mileage injury wise. I recall AJ's knee being managed back in Tennessee where he wasn't practicing.

But that said, in terms of Nico (and AJ) its not Age and injuries, its Age, injuries with a big focus on on Situation/Environment.

Nico seems to get doubled and taken out of the game, the line hasn't been good enough to let those downfield routes we got 2 years ago develop and Stroud so often did... the smart thing.. throw to the open guy. Nico did get 9 targets before he got hurt. But if your'e covered they're hard to convert.

AJ is downgraded for a team that doesn't pass.

Nico or AJ on the Rams, on the Niners, their shares vault through the moon.

Hell, get Nico to the Giants, see what Dart can do with him and I think he'd be an in demand guy again.

 

[Timmay]

Any hope of him playing this week?

 

[Drake Hater]

Not practicing today.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Any hope of him playing this week?

I’d put it at like a 5% chance.

 

[jobarules]

Any hope of him playing this week?

The fact the concussion happened on a Monday makes it tougher IMO

 

[rockaction]

I really see no need for my previous posts about Justin Fields to come into the conversation here. That's purely you trying to denigrate my knowledge because I have a completely unrelated position you disagree with. I've been pretty clear in the Fields thread that I'm a Fields "apologist" but I don't disagree that the results on the field (real life football) speak for themselves at this point.

I'll get to this. Even though I started a thread today, it was a pretty easy one, and I'm not feeling well. Probably tomorrow. I wasn't taking a shot at you for the sake of doing that. I had a point that I will try to explain in more detail. I actually wasn't getting on you at all; I saw something worth commenting on and your thought process is actually pretty good, IMO. That's why I spent so much time on it. If I thought it was garbage or that Nico is locked in as a top-ten or fifteen dynasty guy then I wouldn't have given it a second thought, so bear with me please.