WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Free Agent (3 Viewers)

[Wise Old Owl]

I'm relatively risk adverse in the first two rounds so I wouldn't take him ahead of Calvin, Dez, DT, AJG or Brown but he's right after that for me. Which is disappointing because I know someone is going to reach and take him ahead of at least a few of those and it won't be me. I'm enjoying him winning me two championships this year though.

You could even pass on all those guys and end up Jordy or Julio. WR is going to be deep next year, reaching on Beckham is already looking like the wrong move.

 

[Black]

Are we sure he's not just a product of Eli?

 

[Spike]

He single handedly won the team tha had him in my longtime Fantasy League the championship this year.

Fantasy Football MVP of 2014. And he missed the first half of the season.

Maybe because he missed the first half of the season. The fact that a serious percentage (especially for redraft leagues) of people picked him up at midseason and he went off like he did made him a huge difference.

 

[Dismattle]

I'm relatively risk adverse in the first two rounds so I wouldn't take him ahead of Calvin, Dez, DT, AJG or Brown but he's right after that for me. Which is disappointing because I know someone is going to reach and take him ahead of at least a few of those and it won't be me. I'm enjoying him winning me two championships this year though.

You could even pass on all those guys and end up Jordy or Julio. WR is going to be deep next year, reaching on Beckham is already looking like the wrong move.

Calvin is another yr older, and injurys may hurt more and last longer..

Dez "could" encounter some sort of team violation..

DT could encounter issues w/ his team at QB, by the end of a long Season.

(etc.)

Personally Id suggest taking the best player available, and/or trade down in the draft.

Lets not forget Beckham was dealing w/ a hamstring issue, that may have put some WR's on IR. Im just saying that lets not forget all the missed time and opportunities.

Personally, I still like Evans w/ the right OC/QB for the future, but next Season Beckham should probably be quite awesome...

 

[Spin]

October 1st will be ODB day for me, as that is the day I picked him up in every one of my retdraft leagues. Thank you ODB for heloing me sweep my leagues this year (barring Sanders outscoring Green tonight by 27)

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

9 of my 10 starters had average or poor days in the FF SB. I won my first ever title in 15 years.

 

[Banger]

let's not forget this was a dominant Rams defense at home that hasn't given up an offensive TD in 3 games and prior to this. They had been very playing well and the Giants scored more than any team on them the entire year. Beckham also had the best game of any receiver against them the entire season. They were also CLEARLY targetting him the entire game and like Beckham said from the very first play it felt as if there were a bunch of hawks and were all eyeing you.

While not funny but kind of ironic is that they were trying to cheap shot him again later in the game (at least the 3rd time) and he saw it coming, moved to the side and I seriously thought the St. Louis defender broke the neck of the other defender when he launched himself and they hit head on head.

 

[jimmykick]

This guy is so good he's just flat out fun to watch on every play. I watch his highlights every week. Bonus that he's on my fantasy team

 

[BigBlue_RI]

This guy is going to save Gomer's career.

Unfortunately Jerry Reese's as well.

 

[Sabertooth]

Wish I had him.

 

[msudaisy26]

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs.

That's about where I have him next year, barring injury. Probably more TDs than that though.

No, what he is saying is he could drop his production rate by 25 percent and still be a top 5 receiver. CHAMPIONSHIP!!!

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

ODB week 16 highlights from NFL.com

 

[Meatwad Reloaded]

1.1 for me next year. This kid is only scratching the surface. To have 4 30 point games out of 5 the last few weeks is incredible and I am not sure whether or not that has even ever happened with the greats of fantasy football.

 

[Yenrub]

He a top 5 pick next year and not too far a stretch to say the #1 pick . Dude puts up 30 points a week. The way I got burned the last 2 few years by running backs like McCoy etc maybe its a safe play.

You guys are nuts. We see this every year. An unknown or young guy comes out of nowhere and impresses big. But this league adapts quickly. He may be a legit top 20 wr in the league going forward but you guys are piling up the hype way too far.

6 months ago, we would say the same about Gordon. A couple of years ago it was Cruz and nicks.

It's been a great run and he's good, maybe great, but you are setting yourself up for nothing but a letdown if you keep up with all this talk at this level

WTF are you talking about? Do you watch him play or just look at his stats? He's uncoverable on short, intermediate, and deep routes. He has sprinter speed, leaps out of the building, and he catches everything thrown in his vicinity. The reason everyone is convinced he's an elite NFL player going forward is because he's the rare combo of great route runner with the catch radius of a WR a half foot taller. Add in his speed and hands and what you have is a more athletic Antonio Brown.

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

No one thinks he is going to go for 138-2028 and 16 TD’s

Let’s cut all those numbers in half.

Where would 69-1014 and 8 TD’s rank him as a WR in PPR?

 

[Banger]

ODB week 16 highlights from NFL.com

that 1st catch in that clip is a play that most players may make once in their career, if at all, and that's probably about the 10th best catch I've seen him make in his 11 game career.

 

[fred_1_15301]

Yeah I've seen enough out of him where I probably take him first overall in PPR. I'll take my chances with the rest of the draft.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I'm relatively risk adverse in the first two rounds so I wouldn't take him ahead of Calvin, Dez, DT, AJG or Brown but he's right after that for me. Which is disappointing because I know someone is going to reach and take him ahead of at least a few of those and it won't be me. I'm enjoying him winning me two championships this year though.

You could even pass on all those guys and end up Jordy or Julio. WR is going to be deep next year, reaching on Beckham is already looking like the wrong move.

To each their own. This is football. No RB/WR/TE is a safe bet. I took Calvin this year in the first. Thought it was a slam dunk at 1.07 in a PPR. I got 2 weeks of WR1 production out of him in the first 12 weeks of the season. I also got 2 weeks where I had to start him because he's Calvin, and got 3.2 and 1.7 points. There is risk in every player that you draft.

 

[shadyridr]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

 

[Banger]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I don't know...what is he about 10th right now amongst all TE/WR/RB's in PPR while missing 4 games?

 

[fred_1_15301]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

ODB week 16 highlights from NFL.com

that 1st catch in that clip is a play that most players may make once in their career, if at all, and that's probably about the 10th best catch I've seen him make in his 11 game career.

I loved seeing the Rams, who have been just dominant on D for the last month and a half, get all salty over not being able to stop him. Guy just kept eating their lunch all day long and they couldn't handle it.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him top 5 next year overall. Same consideration that was given to Calvin and Graham this past year.

 

[CR69]

Keep seeing people say that he's only scoring because of busted coverage. Why do you think the coverage was blown? Couldn't have anything to do with his route running ability or speed, right? Look at the 2nd TD from yesterday. Yes, the coverage was blown, but only because he killed the safety who didn't have a chance at guessing which way he was going to go.

 

[SCT]

Some people saw this coming. I've posted this a couple times over this run, but subscribers can check out this article from October 24, as the Giants headed into their bye and Matt Harmon TOTALLY called for this break out to start when he came out of the bye. I was on the fence on a trade where I gave KB and Sproles for OBJ and Stills. Sounds crazy now, but that was perception at the time...this article totally pushed me off the fence, thank God. League mates texted me asking why I would give up the proven KB for the rookie who had done nothing yet. Thank you Matt Harmon and OBJ!

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=harmon_receptionperception_odellbeckhamjr14

 

[Banger]

Keep seeing people say that he's only scoring because of busted coverage. Why do you think the coverage was blown? Couldn't have anything to do with his route running ability or speed, right? Look at the 2nd TD from yesterday. Yes, the coverage was blown, but only because he killed the safety who didn't have a chance at guessing which way he was going to go.

that wasn't a blown coverage..that was a great route and he creates instant separation. If they can get some lineman to give Eli some time next year it could get silly.

 

[shadyridr]

Keep seeing people say that he's only scoring because of busted coverage. Why do you think the coverage was blown? Couldn't have anything to do with his route running ability or speed, right? Look at the 2nd TD from yesterday. Yes, the coverage was blown, but only because he killed the safety who didn't have a chance at guessing which way he was going to go.

I havent seen a single person say that. Where?

 

[IheartGuinness]

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

This is such a great post. Some people need to relax a bit.

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What a complete and utter beast."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He's unstoppable."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He was absolutely the difference for me in my matchup this week. Single handedly won it for me."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"A man amongst boys"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"Thoroughbred"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"HOLY #### IN LOVE"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"My goodness...what a badass"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]":boner:"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What the hell else can we even say in here? Speechless"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

 

[Bayhawks]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

 

[Banger]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

who's the last rookie to do something like this?

 

[xenith]

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

This is such a great post. Some people need to relax a bit.

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What a complete and utter beast."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He's unstoppable."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He was absolutely the difference for me in my matchup this week. Single handedly won it for me."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"A man amongst boys"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"Thoroughbred"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"HOLY #### IN LOVE"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"My goodness...what a badass"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]":boner:"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What the hell else can we even say in here? Speechless"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

Who, exactly? Elaborate...

For me i've seen enough I buy in as 1st rounder in PPR. My league saw Calvin, Demaryius and Dez in later half of 1st (12 team ppr). ODB absolutely justified in that range, with Brown deserving as well, especially with the multiple RB and QB dissappointments early in drafts. One player keeper league, i've got ODB and Demarco, or I can keep none and fill in among those not protected, i'm keeping ODB. Already know I'll be selecting late in 1st based on this year's order of finish reversal for next year. Barring something significant in offseason, my choice is easy.

 

[Banger]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

who knows where his ADP will be? It's rising a half a round each game. With the way he's performed this year I can't see any scenario that he'll be available in the 3rd round. As people comb through the metrics of what he's done this year his value is going to rise all offseason.

Also, ADP is good as a guide but I've seen people jump ADP for guys they like and have tremendous success. So many of the players that we have slotted all over the board don't work out and I can give you a hundred examples from this year. The important thing is to get the players that produce...I saw guys jumping multiple rounds to get Kelvin Benjamin and while I scoffed in a couple drafts they got the last laugh.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

All the

 

[xenith]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

who's the last rookie to do something like this?

only i can recall is randy moss (no do not say anquan boldin), which was pretty spectacular

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

This is such a great post. Some people need to relax a bit.

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What a complete and utter beast."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He's unstoppable."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He was absolutely the difference for me in my matchup this week. Single handedly won it for me."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"A man amongst boys"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"Thoroughbred"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"HOLY #### IN LOVE"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"My goodness...what a badass"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]":boner:"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What the hell else can we even say in here? Speechless"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

There are 13 guys in the history of the NFL that averaged 100+ yards per game. (none of them in their rookie year btw). As one would expect, the list is littered with HOFers or soon to be HOFers.

So have we seen this before? I guess we've seen it out of some of the best to ever play the position in their career best years.

 

[IheartGuinness]

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

This is such a great post. Some people need to relax a bit.

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What a complete and utter beast."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He's unstoppable."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He was absolutely the difference for me in my matchup this week. Single handedly won it for me."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"A man amongst boys"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"Thoroughbred"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"HOLY #### IN LOVE"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"My goodness...what a badass"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]":boner:"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What the hell else can we even say in here? Speechless"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

Who, exactly? Elaborate...

For me i've seen enough I buy in as 1st rounder in PPR. My league saw Calvin, Demaryius and Dez in later half of 1st (12 team ppr). ODB absolutely justified in that range, with Brown deserving as well, especially with the multiple RB and QB dissappointments early in drafts. One player keeper league, i've got ODB and Demarco, or I can keep none and fill in among those not protected, i'm keeping ODB. Already know I'll be selecting late in 1st based on this year's order of finish reversal for next year. Barring something significant in offseason, my choice is easy.

Several players have exhibited similar abilities. For example, take a look at the quotes I posted. None of them are from this thread. They are all direct quotes from the Josh Gordon thread last year. And they are similarly sycophantic and fawning. My point was to illustrate that it can be all too easy to get caught up in the hype of the moment. Randy Moss, Calvin, and Josh Gordon all generated a litany of hyperbole when they burst on the scene (Gordon's coming out party was his second season). And they are all great players. But they, like Beckham, aren't perfect. They aren't superhuman. Do I think Beckham's a hell of a player? Absolutely. Do I think he's better than any of them? No way. I could see him as a top five receiver going into next season, sure. But to anoint this guy as the second coming of Jerry Rice at this stage of his career is absolutely ridiculous.

 

[msudaisy26]

I will do at least 1 start up next year and I will be taking him if he is available at my pick and I will let everyone know it before hand. It would take a lot to get me off the pick, but not impossible.

 

[msudaisy26]

Who is the talent we have seen like this before ?

 

[Shutout]

Are we sure he's not just a product of Eli?

You laugh at that but there is a trend:

Steve Smith (the other one) was a top 7 Wr that ONE year.

Then came Nicks who was 23 and untouchable in dynasty after what he showed us.

Then came Cruz who came from nowhere and did the same thing.

Even last year, something named Jerrell Jernigan went on a rampage the last month with Eli.

So, is it possible that a one trick pony team who nobody takes too seriously at this point can just keep force feeding the ball to one guy over and over and over again? Yeah.

Like I said, I'm not saying Beckham isn't a BRIGHT future in the league, but the lauding going on here and the words being used by people clearly say he is going to be OVER REACHED by far. If people are thinking of him as a top 5 guy (and ignoring a host of players like DT, Dez, Calvin, Julio, Green, Jordy, Antonio, Hilton, Cobb, Jeffrey, Marshal, Benjamin, etc), then its not that people aren't right and he will be great, its that they will be thinking "ZOMG! This guy is going to go for 2000 yards and 16 TD every Year and everyone knows that so I gotta get him earlier!" And its that hype that, once it's spinning, you see a guy go WAY too early and at the end of the year, he can't justify the price.

We do it all the time. We thought TRICH was the next coming. We thought Watkins was going to take the world by storm. KAEP, RG III and Newton were the new weapon nobody could match. Jimmy Graham couldn't do anything BUT dominate and lap the field. Gordon was going to be unstoppable and carry people to championships once he returned (R.I.P. Soulfly).

THe NFL is smarter than people give credit. They figure these things out and have 9 months between now and when it matters again to do it. In a league where significant changes are made week to week, 9 months is an eternity to plan to reduce players from gods to merely great superstars.

Beckham is great. He is a blast to watch. That catch he made a few weeks ago is likely the greatest I have seen. But if you get blindsided by all that buzz, you won't see that you are falling into a trap. If nothing else, you just have to look at the Giants and KNOW that when this team resets next year, the mindset of Caughlin is not to play like this (and lose 7-8 games a year). That guy wants multiple people involved and he wants to run and play defense because he KNOWS that one trick ponies get shut down in the NFL at the time it matters (just like the Seahawks with the Broncos last year) and the ONLY thing that matters to a 63 year old coach in this league is winning a SB.

 

[Banger]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

who's the last rookie to do something like this?

only i can recall is randy moss (no do not say anquan boldin), which was pretty spectacular

which is the only player I can think of as well.

The Giants know what they have and are going to do everything they can to build the offense around this kid.

 

[fred_1_15301]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

If you really believe that this guy is going to be a beast, it is not outrageous. Who cares about ADP? All that matters is how people in my league will perceive his value. I can't predict what others in my league are thinking. If I think that somebody else in my league would snag him in the first round, I don't need to take a risk on missing out on him. I would like to find a league next year where this guy is taken in the 3rd round.

 

[Nugget]

I'd love to have him next season, but I am terrified what his auction value is going to be. I expect 2 out of the 12 guys to drive him 20% above a Calvin/DT level.

 

[Shutout]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

who's the last rookie to do something like this?

only i can recall is randy moss (no do not say anquan boldin), which was pretty spectacular

Don't forget those Wrs from different years in Tampa that blew up big and were never seen again. Or Germane Crowell or Charles Rogers.

We're getting into apples and oranges though. It's not BECAUSE HE IS A ROOKIE. It is about any player, at any time, who makes us take notice. You have to look at the situation. THis is not the same league it was 10 years ago. Half the guys putting up these numbers today wouldn't survive half a season 15 years ago because they would have had their head separated from their body on the routes they run to get free and you can't touch these guys these days. That takes nothing away from the today players in what they achieve now but it underlines the point that you can't look at past players and compare them in the same way.

Had Jerry Rice and even Randy Moss played in today's rules, they would be demi-gods in football terms. It's apples to oranges.

Beckham might end up being Welker or DJAX or Wallace. A specific skill that pops out and does a lot but teams will adjust.

I must be getting old. I'm tired of debating this already. This will be the off season of Bell and Beckham and the 2015 in-season of "what happened?" Like Shady and Charles and Lacy, a month into next season, people will be griping about their #10 RB or Wr because they bought him at #1 overall prices. the players can still have great seasons but will never live up to the over-inflated price.

 

[Bayhawks]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

All the

Really? There will be AT LEAST 15 RBs drafted in the first 2 rounds (although 5 of those will be reaches due to positional scarcity). There will be 2-4 QBs (Rodgers, Luck, 1-2 of Peyton, Brees, Brady, Wilson, etc), 1-2 TEs (Gronk, MAYBE Graham), and A Brown, Calvin, D. Thomas, Jordy, Dez (maybe AJ Green & Julio) will all have higher ADPs than ODB. That's 23 players, maybe 28 who will be likely to have higher ADPs.

He's a rookie, but RBs are still going to dominate the 1st few rounds, and a few QBs are going to get picked, and Gronkowski and/or Graham are going to get picked early, and those other WRs have more proven track records. Those are just the facts.

Are some leagues going to see ODB go earlier? Sure, but his ADP is going to be much closer to end of the 2nd/early 3rd than 1.1.

 

[Faust]

Coughlin tells Beckham to tone down TD celebrations

 

[Shutout]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

who's the last rookie to do something like this?

only i can recall is randy moss (no do not say anquan boldin), which was pretty spectacular

which is the only player I can think of as well.

The Giants know what they have and are going to do everything they can to build the offense around this kid.

The ONLY chance that happens is if Coughlin leaves and McAdoo is the HC. It is NOT IN THE DNA of Caughlin to play this way. Too many variables, subject to weather, all eggs in one basket. NOT Caughlin at all.

 

[msudaisy26]

Does Charles Rodgers have 1k career yards even? He was a top pick, but never even came close to showing this kind of talent.

Mike Williams and Michael Clayton put up numbers, but again never showed this kind of dominance.

Same with Crowell.

I agree that Moss and Rice would have been unstoppable in the NFL today.

This kid isn't a one trick pony. He isn't a slot machine, he doesn't just run deep routes. He run some of the best routes in the NFL.

 

[Banger]

Are we sure he's not just a product of Eli?

You laugh at that but there is a trend:

Steve Smith (the other one) was a top 7 Wr that ONE year.

Then came Nicks who was 23 and untouchable in dynasty after what he showed us.

Then came Cruz who came from nowhere and did the same thing.

Even last year, something named Jerrell Jernigan went on a rampage the last month with Eli.

So, is it possible that a one trick pony team who nobody takes too seriously at this point can just keep force feeding the ball to one guy over and over and over again? Yeah.

Like I said, I'm not saying Beckham isn't a BRIGHT future in the league, but the lauding going on here and the words being used by people clearly say he is going to be OVER REACHED by far. If people are thinking of him as a top 5 guy (and ignoring a host of players like DT, Dez, Calvin, Julio, Green, Jordy, Antonio, Hilton, Cobb, Jeffrey, Marshal, Benjamin, etc), then its not that people aren't right and he will be great, its that they will be thinking "ZOMG! This guy is going to go for 2000 yards and 16 TD every Year and everyone knows that so I gotta get him earlier!" And its that hype that, once it's spinning, you see a guy go WAY too early and at the end of the year, he can't justify the price.

We do it all the time. We thought TRICH was the next coming. We thought Watkins was going to take the world by storm. KAEP, RG III and Newton were the new weapon nobody could match. Jimmy Graham couldn't do anything BUT dominate and lap the field. Gordon was going to be unstoppable and carry people to championships once he returned (R.I.P. Soulfly).

THe NFL is smarter than people give credit. They figure these things out and have 9 months between now and when it matters again to do it. In a league where significant changes are made week to week, 9 months is an eternity to plan to reduce players from gods to merely great superstars.

Beckham is great. He is a blast to watch. That catch he made a few weeks ago is likely the greatest I have seen. But if you get blindsided by all that buzz, you won't see that you are falling into a trap. If nothing else, you just have to look at the Giants and KNOW that when this team resets next year, the mindset of Caughlin is not to play like this (and lose 7-8 games a year). That guy wants multiple people involved and he wants to run and play defense because he KNOWS that one trick ponies get shut down in the NFL at the time it matters (just like the Seahawks with the Broncos last year) and the ONLY thing that matters to a 63 year old coach in this league is winning a SB.

you don't think the Rams with probably the best 2nd half defense in the league were trying to stop him? they weren't gameplanning for him? You can gameplan all you want but they play the game on the field and his talent is >>>>> most other guys he's matching up against. I've had Gordon, AJ Green, Dez and many other game breaking wr's and have loved them but I see things in this kid that are equal to and greater than all of them. Hell, I still own AJ Green in my dynasty that I own Beckham in but given the choice I'd rather have Beckham without a 2nd thought. I just traded Gordon a few weeks back in the same league after his big game to make room for Beckham.

I'm asking a serious question that I asked you before....how are defenses going to "stop him"? What is his weakness that teams are going to exploit? Teams can't stop Calvin, Dez and others and they aren't going to be able to stop him. Just because he doesn't 24 games of history to prove he has the track record doesn't mean you should discount what he's done. Hell, everyone is now using A. Brown as a measuring stick but let's not forget that he was about the 10th ranked wr last year...now fast forward a year, he's the #1 scoring wr and it's "of course A. Brown is ahead of him". Things change quickly.

 

[Bayhawks]

And last year we said the same thing about Gordon and in the last couple of seasons we said the same thing about Cruz, about Hakeem Nicks, and about 10 other guys. It is simply not sustainable because the NFL DOES adjust. Two years ago, QBs like Kaep and Newton and RG III looked like they were going to rule the NFL for a dozen years and now what?

Some of you guys look at these short runs and extrapolate the numbers and say things like you're saying but the simple truth is it NEVER holds up. They can be great and they can be one of the best in the league. But they can't live up to the hype of these short runs.

Let me explain it to you this way: By the numbers, since he became a starter, he is on pace that would be 188 targets per season, 138 catches, 2028 yards and 16 TDs. Sorry, call me crazy but I don't see this holding up. I just can't come around to your way of thinking that he will maintain a pace that will shatter Jerry Rice's records in about 10 seasons.

Like I said, I get it that people are excited he will be really good, maybe one of the best. But when you loosely toss out absolutely unstoppable and dominant and instant top WR in dynasty, etc, etc, it tells me you are buying high. He played like Gordon did last year. How did that work out this year? We see this all the time. Even if he becomes that version of Wes Welker that was a PPR god for a handful of years, ok, maybe you can get that...and that's great. But to think he is going to come out and become a tier unto himself like some of you guys are talking is just setting you up for disappointment.

This is such a great post. Some people need to relax a bit.

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What a complete and utter beast."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He's unstoppable."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"He was absolutely the difference for me in my matchup this week. Single handedly won it for me."[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"A man amongst boys"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"Thoroughbred"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"HOLY #### IN LOVE"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"My goodness...what a badass"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]":boner:"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]"What the hell else can we even say in here? Speechless"[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think he's having a great season. But we've seen talent like this before. [/SIZE]

There are 13 guys in the history of the NFL that averaged 100+ yards per game. (none of them in their rookie year btw). As one would expect, the list is littered with HOFers or soon to be HOFers.

So have we seen this before? I guess we've seen it out of some of the best to ever play the position in their career best years.

I counted 18, but I stopped at 1960. Also, I didn't go back through individual seasons to see if guys who got 1300 yards in a 14 game season missed a game, which would change the numbers.

Of those 18, only 4 did it more than once. So, if you are going to use the rarity of ODB's performance as a measuring stick, you should be equally as willing to account for the rarity of the feat to mean he is unlikely to do it again.

The fact of the matter is that ODB is having a great run. But until he is able to sustain that success over a longer time span, there are going to be doubts. More proven WRs (even those who had bad years), will be more highly valued next season.

 

[Jed]

1st overall in PPR? come on thats ridiculous. That being said, Im happier than a pig in sheet that I can keep him at 9th round, 6th round, and 3rd round value the next 3 years.

I say it now and I'm not sure I'd have the balls to do it on draft day but is it so outrageous? As MSU said, even if his production drops 25%, he's a first rounder. Based on everything I've seen over the past 7-8 weeks, his floor is extremely high and he has no ceiling.

Absolutely it is so outrageous.

Even if you feel he is going to finish as the best player in a particular scoring format, selecting him at 1.1 when his ADP is going to be lower (probably much lower) than that is outrageous. If you feel he won't be there at the end of the 2nd, then trade down to get him, but selecting him at 1.1 won't be wise (unless his ADP is 1.1, which I can't believe it will be; more likely somewhere in the 3rd round, possibly 2nd).

3rd round? Pass the crack pipe.

 

[msudaisy26]

What 15 running backs would be taken in the first 2 rounds? You realize that leaves 9 spots for everything else? So Gronk, Graham, Dez, Brown, Calvin, Jordy, Julio, Green, Cobb, Jeffery, DT, Sanders, and maybe Luck and Rodgers.