WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Free Agent (2 Viewers)

[cstu]

Hope he doesnt get injured, or Eli injured.

this is exactly what I meant by fluky.

Or Eli simply not playing well (not fluky).

 

[fredsavage]

Hope he doesnt get injured, or Eli injured.

this is exactly what I meant by fluky.

Waste of time trying to predict fluke injuries.

 

[amicsta]

I know he should regress slightly next year, but I'm not believing it. I honestly think he is the clearcut #1 WR in the NFL - for next year and probably many years thereafter. I haven't seen talent like this that is so clearly visibly better than everyone else since Michael Jordan. I know I'll get flamed for this but I do intend on putting my money where my mouth is next season during FFL drafts.

I agree with this 100%! I'm protecting him in my main league as my lone keeper. In MFL drafts I've grabbed him as high as 3 overall. I did take Brown once over him just to "diversify" since I'll likely do 10-20 of these this year but in all h2h leagues I'll take him first especially in ppr and maybe in standard as well.

The thing about ODB regressing is that he could stand to regress some and still end up a top 3, or even number 1, WR. He was an absolute target monster last season.

 

[Soulfly3]

Hope he doesnt get injured, or Eli injured.

this is exactly what I meant by fluky.

Waste of time trying to predict fluke injuries.

Who's trying to predict?

I just said i have a gut feeling. I own him in dynasty and that's just how i feel it's gonna happen this season

 

[cstu]

I know he should regress slightly next year, but I'm not believing it. I honestly think he is the clearcut #1 WR in the NFL - for next year and probably many years thereafter. I haven't seen talent like this that is so clearly visibly better than everyone else since Michael Jordan. I know I'll get flamed for this but I do intend on putting my money where my mouth is next season during FFL drafts.

I agree with this 100%! I'm protecting him in my main league as my lone keeper. In MFL drafts I've grabbed him as high as 3 overall. I did take Brown once over him just to "diversify" since I'll likely do 10-20 of these this year but in all h2h leagues I'll take him first especially in ppr and maybe in standard as well.

The thing about ODB regressing is that he could stand to regress some and still end up a top 3, or even number 1, WR. He was an absolute target monster last season.

He was on pace for 252 targets the last 4 games last year. Since week 8 he was on pace for 204.

The record for targets (since 1998 when they started keeping them) is 205 by Harrison, who had 143/1722/12 that year.

 

[ghostguy123]

I know he should regress slightly next year, but I'm not believing it. I honestly think he is the clearcut #1 WR in the NFL - for next year and probably many years thereafter. I haven't seen talent like this that is so clearly visibly better than everyone else since Michael Jordan. I know I'll get flamed for this but I do intend on putting my money where my mouth is next season during FFL drafts.

I agree with this 100%! I'm protecting him in my main league as my lone keeper. In MFL drafts I've grabbed him as high as 3 overall. I did take Brown once over him just to "diversify" since I'll likely do 10-20 of these this year but in all h2h leagues I'll take him first especially in ppr and maybe in standard as well.

The thing about ODB regressing is that he could stand to regress some and still end up a top 3, or even number 1, WR. He was an absolute target monster last season.

He was on pace for 252 targets the last 4 games last year. Since week 8 he was on pace for 204.

The record for targets (since 1998 when they started keeping them) is 205 by Harrison, who had 143/1722/12 that year.

He isn't going to score 400 in PPR this year, or ever. Let's clear that up.

He won't get 252 targets either.

However, he is a super talent, already showing he can dominate on an actual NFL field. He is 22 (I think). For me, it is impossible to fault anyone who has him as their #1 dynasty WR, or even as their #1 overall dynasty player.

 

[BoltBacker]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

 

[FUBAR]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

Larry is an interesting case and although there are significant differences (LJ was at least partly due to the system and surrounding talent and followed a great back while OBJ seems to be doing it more through his own talent), your point is spot on.

Happens more than we'd like to believe, even among those players who still are good but don't quite reach the potential apparent their rookie year. Another example is cam Newton, still a very good qb (esp for ff) but hasn't quite lived up to the potential we saw his rookie year.

That said, he's still my top receiver.

 

[ghostguy123]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

 

[Banger]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

but you had Priest Holmes running like a madman there too...their line was so ridiculous it made it easy. The Giants were in an opposite situation...team was falling apart and he was the only good thing on it...everyone knew it and they still couldn't stop it all while being a rookie. Yes, he's being hyped but for completely different reasons. Each player and their is situation is unique and Larry Johnson and his success and failures has zero impact on ODB and how he will succeed or fail.

 

[ghostguy123]

Weren't people in that other Calvin thread still saying as of a couple months ago that they would take Calvin straight up over Beckham??

I wonder if any of them changed their views on that yet.

Ya know what though, ya, Beckham is most certainly overhyped. But that doesn't mean that he isn't deserving of being the #1 dynasty WR. Not saying I have him at #1 but he is real damn close, and if anyone has him at #1 I wouldn't blink at that at all.

 

[FUBAR]

the more pressing question is whether his nickname is ODB or OBJ.

It has to be OBJ, doesn't it? But people refer to him as ODB for some reason.

 

[ghostguy123]

the more pressing question is whether his nickname is ODB or OBJ.

It has to be OBJ, doesn't it? But people refer to him as ODB for some reason.

O....Dell.....Beckham

Not saying it's right, but at least it sorta makes sense. PLus the obvious rapper ODB rocked the name, so, F it.

OB??

O??

Beck??

I dunnu

 

[Soulfly3]

the more pressing question is whether his nickname is ODB or OBJ.

It has to be OBJ, doesn't it? But people refer to him as ODB for some reason.

because ODB sounds better, the other ODB is dead, and beckham is dirty as hell

 

[FUBAR]

the more pressing question is whether his nickname is ODB or OBJ.

It has to be OBJ, doesn't it? But people refer to him as ODB for some reason.

O....Dell.....Beckham

Not saying it's right, but at least it sorta makes sense. PLus the obvious rapper ODB rocked the name, so, F it.

OB??

O??

Beck??

I dunnu

So we should start calling calvin Johnson CVJ?

 

[Soulfly3]

So we should start calling calvin Johnson CVJ?

he's always referred to as megatron... so I dont get your point. lol

a nickname is a nickname.

 

[DaveL]

Odell Beckham Jr (@OBJ_3) | Twitterper his own twitter account, it's OBJ

 

[Soulfly3]

Odell Beckham Jr (@OBJ_3) | Twitter

per his own twitter account, it's OBJ

yes, those are his initials.

his nickname will forever be ODB

the rule in life is your not allowed to refer to yourself by your nickname. you lose all cred

 

[Shutout]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

 

[Soulfly3]

When it comes to dynasty, I have to have one of these WRs on my roster

Odell Beckham
Antonio Brown
Deymarius Thomas
Julio Jones
Mike Evans
Dez Bryant
AJ Green

Past those names, they're not a MUST HAVE. I can place any of those guys in any order... all depends on taste.

I can see anyone placing any of those guys #1 and any of those guys #7...

 

[cstu]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

Reminds me of Randy Moss after his rookie year - everyone KNEW he was going to get 20 TD's his second year...instead he only had 11.

He was the #2 WR though.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

I'll be pretty happy if ol' dirty beckham puts up 1800/17 next year

 

[FUBAR]

his nickname will forever be ODB

Or Not

https://www.google.com/search?site=&source=hp&ei=KeErVZjnNLDmsATHkoAw&q=what+is+odell+beckham+jr+nickname&oq=what+is+Odell&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.1.3.0l5.1908.14499.0.17910.8.8.0.3.3.1.379.1348.0j1j2j2.5.0.msedr...0...1c.1.64.mobile-gws-hp..2.6.863.3.5bj7UBbwiHw

 

[Soulfly3]

his nickname will forever be ODB

Or Not

https://www.google.com/search?site=&source=hp&ei=KeErVZjnNLDmsATHkoAw&q=what+is+odell+beckham+jr+nickname&oq=what+is+Odell&gs_l=mobile-gws-hp.1.3.0l5.1908.14499.0.17910.8.8.0.3.3.1.379.1348.0j1j2j2.5.0.msedr...0...1c.1.64.mobile-gws-hp..2.6.863.3.5bj7UBbwiHw

does anything outside of FBG matter?

 

[cstu]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

I'll be pretty happy if ol' dirty beckham puts up 1800/17 next year

Calvin Johnson has never had 17 TD's...think about that.

 

[Soulfly3]

Exactly, I feel like we have been through all this before with Larry Johnson. In 9 starts he had 1800/20 rushing. The next year if you projected 2000/20 rushing you were labeled a "hater". Think about that a second. People acted as if 2200/26 was his absolute floor. The next season he had another great year(1800/17) but a lot of people thought that it was impossible for those numbers to be that low if he was started all 16 games.

Of course he never reached 1000 rushing yards again after that. It's funny, a lot of things can go wrong on your way to Canton after a great PART of ONE season. People tend to forget that.

I'll be pretty happy if ol' dirty beckham puts up 1800/17 next year

Calvin Johnson has never had 17 TD's...think about that.

Jerry Rice only hit it twice.

 

[LawFitz]

Best player in the NFL last year on a per game basis. Extrapolate that how you want.

 

[Shutout]

Best player in the NFL last year on a per game basis. Extrapolate that how you want.

JJ watt and about 10-20 others were better players. He was the most valuable FANTASY player, though. Its rare you get that perfect fire-feeding combo of young/hype/unrealistic production over the perfect span of time. It always leads us to think nothing can go wrong.

 

[Soulfly3]

Best player in the NFL last year on a per game basis. Extrapolate that how you want.

1.58 points per target last season

1.44 for Evans

 

[Shutout]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

Reminds me of Randy Moss after his rookie year - everyone KNEW he was going to get 20 TD's his second year...instead he only had 11.

He was the #2 WR though.

And that's the thing. Nobody (not many) are saying he won't be a top Wr, but its crazy to pay the A1 price expecting/hoping for some clearly unsustainable number when you could pay the A9 price and "settle" for Antonio Brown or Julio or Dez, where the production is absolutely proven.

I'm just saying that I grant that he might be great, one of the greats, or THE greatest, but if I was sitting in a draft with the 8th pick, I would be sitting up nights losing sleep trying to figure out how to trade up to get this guy (or using time trying to figure it out when I could be studying other draft strategies). I would just "settle" for the Dez, Brown, Julio types and be very happy with it.

Scenarios like these almost have nowhere to go but to disappoint. Guys will spend the bulk of their time in the offseason justifying this and extrapolating numbers and getting worked up over justifying how this guy can go 1800/20 next year, etc and, for what? If you use one of the top handful of picks (or trade the farm in dynasty) to get him and he does it, then big deal. Isn't that exactly what people at the top of the draft hope for each year? Isn't that why there were reasons you took Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes 1st back in the day and just kicked your feet back? So, the only good result is the expected one.

But somewhere in all that mess of wasted time and ad naseum debates are the dozen of other scenarios that can unfold where he becomes a 2nd year player who has a nice season...a REALLY nice season perhaps, and he ends up with 1300/14. That's great. But it won't keep the people who spent that top $ on him from griping all year how it was a disappointment.

 

[minister]

I'm totally sold on Beckham. My 2 cents ...

I've been watching football (and playing FF in the same keeper league) since 1993, and owe much of my success in this league to a WR-heavy strategy.

During those 20+ years, I've come to trust my "once every handful of years spidey-sense" at WR.

My exuberance for 5 receivers stands clearly above the rest after one NFL season.

In order: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julio Jones.

My personal dynasty/keeper ranking for this league (10teams, 1/2/3/1/1 lineups, non-ppr, 6 pts all TDs) has Beckham at WR1, and 2nd overall. FWIW, 1st tier of my ranking goes 11 deep:

1. Andrew Luck

2. Odell Beckham

3. Le'Veon Bell

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Julio Jones

6. Dez Bryant

7. Antonio Brown

8. Demaryius Thomas

9. AJ Green

10. Eddie Lacy

11. Rob Gronkowski

Bell moves up and down this tier often, but the rest have been fairly static through 2015 with Luck and Beckham locked at 1/2.

 

[fredsavage]

I'm totally sold on Beckham. My 2 cents ...

I've been watching football (and playing FF in the same keeper league) since 1993, and owe much of my success in this league to a WR-heavy strategy.

During those 20+ years, I've come to trust my "once every handful of years spidey-sense" at WR.

My exuberance for 5 receivers stands clearly above the rest after one NFL season.

In order: Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, and Julio Jones.

My personal dynasty/keeper ranking for this league (10teams, 1/2/3/1/1 lineups, non-ppr, 6 pts all TDs) has Beckham at WR1, and 2nd overall. FWIW, 1st tier of my ranking goes 11 deep:

1. Andrew Luck

2. Odell Beckham

3. Le'Veon Bell

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Julio Jones

6. Dez Bryant

7. Antonio Brown

8. Demaryius Thomas

9. AJ Green

10. Eddie Lacy

11. Rob Gronkowski

Bell moves up and down this tier often, but the rest have been fairly static through 2015 with Luck and Beckham at 1/2.

Solid tier one. I'd have Evans somewhere in there.

Re:ODB Seemingly high character guy aces every statistical and logical measure of talent and Eli should have many years of solid play left. Few reasons for pessimism

 

[BoltBacker]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

Yeah, the people mentioning you can't really compare a RB to a WR are right in terms of elite WR's continuing to be elite longer but imo they are also subject to more things out of their control. If Adrian Peterson is healthy all year next year he will have a monster year for instance. So you have the injury risk of Peterson getting hurt. If Beckham gets hurt OR Manning gets hurt(Nassib?) OR even if Beatty gets injured at LT that reduces Beckham's route tree. To me a WR is a much bigger injury risk than a RB because so much has to happen just for them to touch the ball.

The biggest one you mention is the running game improves. The Giants gave up 6000+ yards last season. Will they pass as much if they don't give up all those yards? Again, so much out of control of even the best WR.

 

[ghostguy123]

So we should start calling calvin Johnson CVJ?

Call him whatever you want. I wont complain about it

 

[ghostguy123]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

Every reason you gave applies to every other player in the NFL

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, the people mentioning you can't really compare a RB to a WR are right in terms of elite WR's continuing to be elite longer but imo they are also subject to more things out of their control.

RBs have quite a bit out of their control also. A bad QB hurts. A poor line hurts. A poor defense hurts. A stupid coach hurts.........

 

[BoltBacker]

Yeah, the people mentioning you can't really compare a RB to a WR are right in terms of elite WR's continuing to be elite longer but imo they are also subject to more things out of their control.

RBs have quite a bit out of their control also. A bad QB hurts. A poor line hurts. A poor defense hurts. A stupid coach hurts.........

Going back to Adrian Peterson... I don't think a bad QB hurt him nearly as much as it would hurt Beckham playing with Nassib(or Ponder or whatever backup quality QB you want to name).

Same goes with the rest. A poor defense actually helped Beckham. If it comes back to anywhere close to average and the running game returns to average I just don't think Coughlin is the type of coach that wants to approach the game in a pass-happy shoot-out sort of way.

 

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, the people mentioning you can't really compare a RB to a WR are right in terms of elite WR's continuing to be elite longer but imo they are also subject to more things out of their control.

RBs have quite a bit out of their control also. A bad QB hurts. A poor line hurts. A poor defense hurts. A stupid coach hurts.........

Going back to Adrian Peterson... I don't think a bad QB hurt him nearly as much as it would hurt Beckham playing with Nassib(or Ponder or whatever backup quality QB you want to name).

Same goes with the rest. A poor defense actually helped Beckham. If it comes back to anywhere close to average and the running game returns to average I just don't think Coughlin is the type of coach that wants to approach the game in a pass-happy shoot-out sort of way.

I'll just say I dont think RB or WR have more/less outside factors affecting them compared to each other. There are quite a few for both.

Great talent WRs do well with crap QBs (see Green, Gordon..........)

Top talent RBs do well in bad spots (see Peterson)

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Just made a.....large offer to overpay for OBJ in a league where I'm totally stacked and deep at WR. I'll post what the offer was once it's been accepted or rejected, I don't want to be influenced by any reactions in here. I'm prepared to be told I'm crazy, since the last OBJ trade I can find here in the Shark Pool was OBJ for Benjamin/1.4/1.9 and most preferred the Benjamin side and called it an overpay...

 

[Ernol]

Just made a.....large offer to overpay for OBJ in a league where I'm totally stacked and deep at WR. I'll post what the offer was once it's been accepted or rejected, I don't want to be influenced by any reactions in here. I'm prepared to be told I'm crazy, since the last OBJ trade I can find here in the Shark Pool was OBJ for Benjamin/1.4/1.9 and most preferred the Benjamin side and called it an overpay...

It would be hard to come up with an overpay for OBJ in my estimation. In most of my leagues, it would take a Dez Bryant or Julio Jones plus some for even a glimmer of hope to get him.

 

[FUBAR]

Just made a.....large offer to overpay for OBJ in a league where I'm totally stacked and deep at WR. I'll post what the offer was once it's been accepted or rejected, I don't want to be influenced by any reactions in here. I'm prepared to be told I'm crazy, since the last OBJ trade I can find here in the Shark Pool was OBJ for Benjamin/1.4/1.9 and most preferred the Benjamin side and called it an overpay...

It would be hard to come up with an overpay for OBJ in my estimation. In most of my leagues, it would take a Dez Bryant or Julio Jones plus some for even a glimmer of hope to get him.

Fwiw, deal in one of my leagues Yesterday:

beckham, 1.12

for

Jeffery, 1.02, 4th round pick

not an overpay but seems fair imo

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Fwiw, deal in one of my leagues Yesterday:

beckham, 1.12

for

Jeffery, 1.02, 4th round pick

not an overpay but seems fair imo

 

[cstu]

Fwiw, deal in one of my leagues Yesterday:

beckham, 1.12

for

Jeffery, 1.02, 4th round pick

not an overpay but seems fair imo

Fair but I prefer Jeffery/1.2.

Jeffery should approach 200 targets himself this year and my choice of Cooper or White?

 

[amicsta]

In response to the whole "Eli could be bad" type of logic with regards to ODB: I'm not sure how much Giants football yall watched, but Eli wasn't that great in 2014. His numbers were good for fantasy bc of Odell, but its not like Eli had this great year and thats why Beck was awesome. There is just as good (maybe better) a chance that Eli is markedly better in 2015 as there is that he's worse

 

[petenice15]

Not to derail this thread, but Eli actually had one of his best seasons last year. He had a 63% completion %, his second most TDs in his career, and 4400 yards. His season started off a little inconsistent under a new offense, but outside the SF game where he looked lost, he was pretty good. Beckham and the McAdoo system are definitely the reasons for it and I would expect his numbers to be similar if not better this year.

 

[Banger]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

Reminds me of Randy Moss after his rookie year - everyone KNEW he was going to get 20 TD's his second year...instead he only had 11.

He was the #2 WR though.

And that's the thing. Nobody (not many) are saying he won't be a top Wr, but its crazy to pay the A1 price expecting/hoping for some clearly unsustainable number when you could pay the A9 price and "settle" for Antonio Brown or Julio or Dez, where the production is absolutely proven.

I'm just saying that I grant that he might be great, one of the greats, or THE greatest, but if I was sitting in a draft with the 8th pick, I would be sitting up nights losing sleep trying to figure out how to trade up to get this guy (or using time trying to figure it out when I could be studying other draft strategies). I would just "settle" for the Dez, Brown, Julio types and be very happy with it.

Scenarios like these almost have nowhere to go but to disappoint. Guys will spend the bulk of their time in the offseason justifying this and extrapolating numbers and getting worked up over justifying how this guy can go 1800/20 next year, etc and, for what? If you use one of the top handful of picks (or trade the farm in dynasty) to get him and he does it, then big deal. Isn't that exactly what people at the top of the draft hope for each year? Isn't that why there were reasons you took Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes 1st back in the day and just kicked your feet back? So, the only good result is the expected one.

But somewhere in all that mess of wasted time and ad naseum debates are the dozen of other scenarios that can unfold where he becomes a 2nd year player who has a nice season...a REALLY nice season perhaps, and he ends up with 1300/14. That's great. But it won't keep the people who spent that top $ on him from griping all year how it was a disappointment.

when you are talking about grabbing ODB over Dez/Antonio...how many picks are going to seperate those guys? 4-6? not a big deal at the end of the day.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

In response to the whole "Eli could be bad" type of logic with regards to ODB: I'm not sure how much Giants football yall watched, but Eli wasn't that great in 2014. His numbers were good for fantasy bc of Odell, but its not like Eli had this great year and thats why Beck was awesome. There is just as good (maybe better) a chance that Eli is markedly better in 2015 as there is that he's worse

I actually think Eli is a nice QB target this season BECAUSE of Beckham.

 

[Banger]

Not to derail this thread, but Eli actually had one of his best seasons last year. He had a 63% completion %, his second most TDs in his career, and 4400 yards. His season started off a little inconsistent under a new offense, but outside the SF game where he looked lost, he was pretty good. Beckham and the McAdoo system are definitely the reasons for it and I would expect his numbers to be similar if not better this year.

Over the past 6 years his completion % was 60.6 and it went up 2.5% while Beckham had nearly 25% of Eli's receptions and had a 70% catch %. Seems pretty clear that perhaps the guy with the best hands in the NFL (perhaps ever) caused his completion % to rise.

 

[Ernol]

Also WR can't be compared to RB, so let's keep that in mind.

Look how drastically the top 5 RBs change every couple years or so, while WR seems to be way way longer before a shift occurs at the top.

The only thing stopping this guy would be injury or if he just all of a sudden decided to not give a damn about football anymore. Good luck predicting that for OBJ, or anyone for that matter.

...Or Eli having an "Eli" year where one years he's awesome in fantasy, the next he looks like he would struggle to place both thumbs up his butt.

...Or the Giants decide its not in their best interest to continue to try to make one player the sole point of their team (is it possible that, with an offseason, other NFL teams might take notice of the opponent who was on track for 200+ targets and adjust?)

...OR the Giants running game improves

...or the Giants o-line improves

...or, in general, as we see time and time and time in the NFL, that teams are very good at adjusting to what other teams do and, generally speaking, a non-QB player, despite their talent level, can't just be a man among boys at this level. We see it sometimes. JJ Watt is living in that area now. But as a WR, TE, or RB, its harder. Not impossible, but more unlikely than likely.

He is SO hyped up right now that the issue is becoming whether people can identify that line between making the mistake of paying too much for him Vs. not understanding what he is truly worth. Ok, maybe he's not Jesus, but at any price, might he not still be worth the #1 WR price?

There are probably 8 or so WRs I would be just as happy to have without overcommitting on price or spending the time all offseason trying to figure out the price.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if he is WR1 or WR18 or anywhere in between.

Reminds me of Randy Moss after his rookie year - everyone KNEW he was going to get 20 TD's his second year...instead he only had 11.

He was the #2 WR though.

And that's the thing. Nobody (not many) are saying he won't be a top Wr, but its crazy to pay the A1 price expecting/hoping for some clearly unsustainable number when you could pay the A9 price and "settle" for Antonio Brown or Julio or Dez, where the production is absolutely proven.

I'm just saying that I grant that he might be great, one of the greats, or THE greatest, but if I was sitting in a draft with the 8th pick, I would be sitting up nights losing sleep trying to figure out how to trade up to get this guy (or using time trying to figure it out when I could be studying other draft strategies). I would just "settle" for the Dez, Brown, Julio types and be very happy with it.

Scenarios like these almost have nowhere to go but to disappoint. Guys will spend the bulk of their time in the offseason justifying this and extrapolating numbers and getting worked up over justifying how this guy can go 1800/20 next year, etc and, for what? If you use one of the top handful of picks (or trade the farm in dynasty) to get him and he does it, then big deal. Isn't that exactly what people at the top of the draft hope for each year? Isn't that why there were reasons you took Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes 1st back in the day and just kicked your feet back? So, the only good result is the expected one.

But somewhere in all that mess of wasted time and ad naseum debates are the dozen of other scenarios that can unfold where he becomes a 2nd year player who has a nice season...a REALLY nice season perhaps, and he ends up with 1300/14. That's great. But it won't keep the people who spent that top $ on him from griping all year how it was a disappointment.

I don't see anyone arguing to pay a ransom over a Julio/Dez/Brown/AJ Green either. Someone has to be number one, and the difference right now between Odell and the "older" favorites like Julio/AJ/Dez is very small (if anything). If there is an opportunity to pay something small to go from Julio/AJ/Dez (and that is a big if), some may take it. I haven't heard of anyone trying to trade something more than that. In other words, the definition of your A1 price vs A9 price is nominal.

What is amazing is that he is already considered by many to be the #1 overall, even if the difference between 1 and 9 (if at 9, AJ Green is still available, Dez/Julio should be long gone by then) may be small.

 

[12punch]

Fwiw, deal in one of my leagues Yesterday:beckham, 1.12

for

Jeffery, 1.02, 4th round pick

not an overpay but seems fair imo

Fair but I prefer Jeffery/1.2.

Jeffery should approach 200 targets himself this year

Wat