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WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Free Agent (3 Viewers)

Lackluster rookie season and then hurt last year.
Which makes him the Best Buy-low WR in FF right now.

Buy shares now and thank me after 2023. He had a strained abdomen his rookie year, and performed well when he played.

He had plantar surgery last year.

Pretty low risk on both looking ahead:

Go watch some of his college game clips. You’ll come away impressed. He was a 1st round pick for a reason.
Pretty much all WRs taken in the first round have excellent college tape. A lot of them bust or are meh players for FF. Other than a flash or 2 (75 yard catch and run last year was pretty), Bateman hasn’t done much to impress so far. Plus being injured parts of both seasons doesn’t exactly scream “Best Buy low in FF” to me, especially if they do sign Lamar. Lamar will benefit Andrews but I see a lot of mediocrity from the WRs. As far as a passer, Lamar is below average. 3500 passing yards top if he manages to stay healthy. Plus Harbaugh has said he wants to run the ball more. Will be interesting to see if they draft another RB.

Maybe you’re right about Bateman but I just don’t see it.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
The only thing that makes sense to me is if Lamar is going to play on the one year tag and this was what it took to get it done and feeling good about it.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
 
Mike Clay
@MikeClayNFL
Surprising but true:
Odell Beckham Jr. last scored more than six TDs in a single regular season way back in 2016.
TDs obviously aren't the only measuring stick of a WR's success, but it does sure seem like the Ravens are paying for past performance not what OBJ is now. Perhaps they're desperate because there are no more valuable FAs left and the rookie draft is not very robust for WRs.
 
Matt Harmon
@MattHarmon_BYB

Once a truly legendary #ReceptionPerception performer, Odell Beckham isn’t ever going to get back to that level but last time we saw him he was still damn good.
- 72.3% success rate vs man coverage
- 81.5% vs zone
- 76.4% vs press (81st percentile)

Last time we saw OBJ was with Cooper Kupp as the #1WR with him as the second banana 🍌 instead of Rashad Bateman :sadbanana:
Jes say'n.
 
Ben Standig
@BenStandig
Texted a few NFL execs/sources about the Odell terms. Some acknowledged Ravens' WR need/Lamar factors. Still, most stunned.
"That number is wild. Sounds like they just gave whatever the agent wanted. ...Extreme is a great description. Not even sure overpay is the right word."

-Any *overpay* might be worth it this satisfies Lamar and gets a deal one. But as a standalone deal and even with some of the Lamar factor, Baltimore appears to have paid well, well over market value.
With Odell, a 2023 1st round/ay 2 WR an Mark Andrews, that's nice group.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
Absolutely crazy money for OBJ. Oh well, good for him.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
That is fair but it is also the market right now and the situation the Ravens are in. They have to do something and WR contracts have been taking off. Odell isn't taking a discount and we have seen that the Ravens have had trouble signing FA WRs.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
That is fair but it is also the market right now and the situation the Ravens are in. They have to do something and WR contracts have been taking off. Odell isn't taking a discount and we have seen that the Ravens have had trouble signing FA WRs.
Not so much this year. After last year's FA spending frenzy on WRs, the market has been more rational this year (likely in no small part due to lower quality). Either the Jets did a good job at driving up OBJ's price or OBJ's agent should get a plaque in the agent hall of fame.
 
Since OBJ left the Giants, he’s ranked 59th / 52nd / 41st in receptions, yardage, and TD per game. That’s when he’s actually played (so ignoring how much he’s been injured).
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
That is fair but it is also the market right now and the situation the Ravens are in. They have to do something and WR contracts have been taking off. Odell isn't taking a discount and we have seen that the Ravens have had trouble signing FA WRs.
Not so much this year. After last year's FA spending frenzy on WRs, the market has been more rational this year (likely in no small part due to lower quality). Either the Jets did a good job at driving up OBJ's price or OBJ's agent should get a plaque in the agent hall of fame.
He got him what, ~$5 mil more than "expected"? That would be like the difference between Lamar getting $240mil and $245mil guaranteed, I'm sure we'd be putting his mom in the agent hall of fame for the latter but not the former...

The money makes sense from the standpoint that Baltimore isn't a highly sought after destination for WRs so they have to overpay. This is what it takes to get it done, at least it isn't a multi-year deal and it doesn't preclude them from drafting a WR (who would very likely take time to develop). It changes absolutely nothing long term other than seemingly helping to smooth over the QB situation.
 
Best cap source is Jack Duffin. He put OBJ's value at $5 million.
Ravens look quite desperate to mollify their quarterback.
------------------------------------------
Jack Duffin
@JackDuffin
That’s insane money
Tom Pelissero@TomPelissero
More details on Odell Beckham Jr.‘s one-year deal with the #Ravens: $13.835 million signing bonus $1.165 million base salary $3M in reachable incentives So OBJ will make at least $15 million and as much as $18M on the deal negotiated by agent Zeke Sandhu. twitter.com/rapsheet/statu…

Replying to@JackDuffin
What was that about $5 million you were saying?
Jack Duffin
@JackDuffin
That’s what he’s worth
Ravens are panicking big time here
 
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
I question their methodology, but it appears they look at a player’s total numbers to date, compare that to other players that age, and what their current contracts are. In OBJ’s case, he looks like he is getting a huge boost based on his Giants days. But they don’t exactly spell out what is in their secret sauce.

LINK
 
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
I question their methodology, but it appears they look at a player’s total numbers to date, compare that to other players that age, and what their current contracts are. In OBJ’s case, he looks like he is getting a huge boost based on his Giants days. But they don’t exactly spell out what is in their secret sauce.

LINK
Their model indeed seems to be based a lot on backwards looking data.
 
Ok never mind production - let’s talk O/U on number of games played at 30 by an oft injured OBJ:

Setting the line at 11 games started, 3 questionable.

Over or under, go!
 
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
Well, they're no Jack Duffin, that's for sure.
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
I question their methodology, but it appears they look at a player’s total numbers to date, compare that to other players that age, and what their current contracts are. In OBJ’s case, he looks like he is getting a huge boost based on his Giants days. But they don’t exactly spell out what is in their secret sauce.

LINK
Their model indeed seems to be based a lot on backwards looking data.
Yeah, I don't know why they don't just use their crystal ball instead. :lol:
 
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
Well, they're no Jack Duffin, that's for sure.
Spotrac calculated OBJ’s market value as 4 years / $51M. That slots him as WR24 based on their numbers. That seems a bit crazy to me (number of years) given his age, injury history, and decrease in production.
If this is true then Spotrac has absolutely no credibility.
I question their methodology, but it appears they look at a player’s total numbers to date, compare that to other players that age, and what their current contracts are. In OBJ’s case, he looks like he is getting a huge boost based on his Giants days. But they don’t exactly spell out what is in their secret sauce.

LINK
Their model indeed seems to be based a lot on backwards looking data.
Yeah, I don't know why they don't just use their crystal ball instead. :lol:
Any good model should incorporate forecasts/projections rather than relying predominantly on backwards looking data.
 
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It would be pretty great if he was back to full speed.

No long term damage to the cap, it's not really about money, but if he can still be any good. I don't know myself, but he used to be special, if he just turns out to be good that would be an upgrade. He's replacing Devin Duvernay, ya know?
 
It would be pretty great if he was back to full speed.

No long term damage to the cap, it's not really about money, but if he can still be any good. I don't know myself, but he used to be special, if he just turns out to be good that would be an upgrade. He's replacing Devin Duvernay, ya know?
Right.

It’s really just the overpay. If it was 2/20 with 10 guaranteed, ok. If it was 1/14 with 6 guaranteed, ok.

13.75 guaranteed with 4.25 in incentives is a bit rich for a 30 y’/o who hasn’t been great or healthy in a while.

That said he did briefly provide a spark for the Rams.

Edited: maf
 
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It would be pretty great if he was back to full speed.

No long term damage to the cap, it's not really about money, but if he can still be any good. I don't know myself, but he used to be special, if he just turns out to be good that would be an upgrade. He's replacing Devin Duvernay, ya know?
Right.

It’s really just the overpay. If it was 2/20 with 10 guaranteed, ok. If it was 1/14 with 6 guaranteed, ok.

13.75 guaranteed with 3.25 in incentives is a bit rich for a 30 y’/o who hasn’t been great or healthy in a while.

That said he did briefly provide a spark for the Rams.
I would very much like to see what healthy OBJ, Dobbins, and Bateman with Lamar would look like under Monken. I hope we see it.

Maybe they'll be able to stay healthy with the old strength coach fired.
 
I would very much like to see what healthy OBJ, Dobbins, and Bateman with Lamar would look like under Monken. I hope we see it.

Maybe they'll be able to stay healthy with the old strength coach fired.
I’m not worried about Bateman at all. He’s 23. He had an groin issue his rookie year, and plantar surgery last year.

Both have very low rates of recurrence.

As mentioned: He profiles as an alpha - 6’1/196 with 4.39 speed

All they need is a QB.
 
I may be looking at this as glass half full, but I actually think this is good for Bateman. I don't think OBJ is a threat to Bateman as the WR 1 (well 2 behind Andrews). Plus, and more importantly, Bal is very unlikely to spend high draft capital on a WR now.
Agree with this 100%

They needed another WR. I do still expect them to draft one, because they don’t have much behind these guys.

And yeah - Andrews will always been the #1 target while healthy.
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
Move makes sense to me. Seems like a classic Ravens play. They clearly can't go into this season with Bateman and no one. They might take a WR in the first but now they dont "have" to. The Ravens are all about these kind of skill position short-term vet signings when they don't have depth or lack confidence in the younger players in their position group. It's why I will be annoyed when they sign someone like Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon in a few months just like they did with Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Desean Jackson, Dez Bryant, Latavius Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The move itself makes sense, it's the amount they paid that doesn't. (all those other players you mentioned were inexpensive contracts)
That is fair but it is also the market right now and the situation the Ravens are in. They have to do something and WR contracts have been taking off. Odell isn't taking a discount and we have seen that the Ravens have had trouble signing FA WRs.
Not so much this year. After last year's FA spending frenzy on WRs, the market has been more rational this year (likely in no small part due to lower quality). Either the Jets did a good job at driving up OBJ's price or OBJ's agent should get a plaque in the agent hall of fame.
He got him what, ~$5 mil more than "expected"? That would be like the difference between Lamar getting $240mil and $245mil guaranteed, I'm sure we'd be putting his mom in the agent hall of fame for the latter but not the former...

The money makes sense from the standpoint that Baltimore isn't a highly sought after destination for WRs so they have to overpay. This is what it takes to get it done, at least it isn't a multi-year deal and it doesn't preclude them from drafting a WR (who would very likely take time to develop). It changes absolutely nothing long term other than seemingly helping to smooth over the QB situation.
He's not worth 1/2 that on his own but if it gets Lamar and they want to try to get Lamar back then it makes sense.
 
Any good model should incorporate forecasts/projections rather than relying predominantly on backwards looking data.
I don't necessarily disagree, but you have to acknowledge that forecasts/projections have a TON of uncertainty/unpredictability, and they will be based primarily on the same "backwards looking data". Would it be any better if they projected him to have a big season instead?

The bottom line is there really is no "good" model, there are tons of unknown variables and the market will ultimately dictate what someone's value is.
 
Any good model should incorporate forecasts/projections rather than relying predominantly on backwards looking data.
I don't necessarily disagree, but you have to acknowledge that forecasts/projections have a TON of uncertainty/unpredictability, and they will be based primarily on the same "backwards looking data". Would it be any better if they projected him to have a big season instead?

The bottom line is there really is no "good" model, there are tons of unknown variables and the market will ultimately dictate what someone's value is.
Agreed - I think we are saying the same thing. If Spotrac values OBJ at 4 years/$51 million, they must know something that we don't. Or they're just incorporating his early year production as the primary factor in their model.
 
Maybe you’re right about Bateman but I just don’t see it.
You will.
Very doubtful
It’s a bizarre indictment of a still-23 year old 1st round pick who’s issues were (correctable) injury-related and not performance-related.

The kid is a future star. I’m amazed by the number of people writing him off entirely when he has all the tools to be among the best WR in the NFL.

He’s the same size as JSN, and quite a bit faster. And IIRC lined up all over the field in college with great hands and route running.

I very distinctly recall that a team traded up to take him in my 12 team dynasty, and most of the FF community was enamored with his talent in that draft class as arguably the top WR.

Yet here you are willing to bet on a 30 y/o has been who can’t stay healthy outperforming him? Remarkable.
 
Maybe you’re right about Bateman but I just don’t see it.
You will.
Very doubtful
It’s a bizarre indictment of a still-23 year old 1st round pick who’s issues were (correctable) injury-related and not performance-related.

The kid is a future star. I’m amazed by the number of people writing him off entirely when he has all the tools to be among the best WR in the NFL.

He’s the same size as JSN, and quite a bit faster. And IIRC lined up all over the field in college with great hands and route running.

I very distinctly recall that a team traded up to take him in my 12 team dynasty, and most of the FF community was enamored with his talent in that draft class as arguably the top WR.

Yet here you are willing to bet on a 30 y/o has been who can’t stay healthy outperforming him? Remarkable.
Well, I said I didn't like the OBJ signing so not betting on him at all. Just saying that he will outperform a 3rd year receiver who hasn't shown anything yet other than a couple flashes and has missed significant time both seasons in the league. I also said I didn't like anyone in the Ravens passing game other than Andrews because Lamar is a below average passer and will probably peak at around 3500 yards. Assuming Andrews gets his at around 1200 yards, not much pie left to divide. If OBJ gets hurt, which is quite possible based on his history over the last few seasons, Batemans piece of the pie goes up. You can also go the other way with that since Bateman has missed a lot of time as well. If they both play a full season, I just expect low end #3 at best type WR production out of both. Not horrible, but nothing to get excited about.

Calling Bateman a future star and potentially one of the best WRs in the NFL is a real stretch based on his first two seasons and his situation with the Ravens passing game. Sounds a bit like the Gabe Davis hype last year except Davis plays in an offense with a QB where that kind of breakout potential was valid. Bateman doesn't have the same situation. Very limited pie in the passing game.

But hey, knock yourself out with Bateman.
 
Any good model should incorporate forecasts/projections rather than relying predominantly on backwards looking data.
Any good model should incorporate data and prior results to create an expectation or a projection for future results or forecasts. Using OBJ as an example, this will be his age 31 season. Do you know how many WR age 31 or older had a season with 1,000 receiving yards in the past 5 years? The answer is one. Julian Edelman. The game has changed. Rolling out receivers in their 30s is generally not a good thing. All that extra experience used to be considered a plus. Now the league has moved on to younger, quicker, faster.

In 2012, there were 5 guys just that season that were 31 or older and had 1,000+ receiving yards (Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, and Wes Welker). There have been other seasons by guys 31+ where those players had 1,000+ receiving yards. But none of those players that I have looked at so far missed nearly 30 games in the 3 seasons prior to that season.

The closest player comp I have found that is most similar to OBJ is Dez Bryant. He had early career success with the Cowboys then got hurt and his numbers dropped for three years. Then he got hurt and missed two seasons. He game back at 32 and put up 6-47-2 in 6 games . . . also for the Ravens.

I would never say there is no chance OBJ has a strong season this year (and plays a lot more than he has in recent seasons). But of the range of outcomes, that one would only get allocated a small percentage of things that could happen. If I were making a projection for OBJ, I would probably start with a mix of 50% of outcomes with a lot of missed playing time, another 40-45% of outcomes with some missed time but reduced production compared to his time in NYG, and maybe 5% of him playing most of the season with top tier production. But averaging all that together, OBJ would rank as a JAG in my overall rankings / projections. I don't do projections anymore, but he would likely end up close to where his level of production the past few years has guided us. Probably in the WR48-55 range.
 
Mike Clay
@MikeClayNFL
Surprising but true:
Odell Beckham Jr. last scored more than six TDs in a single regular season way back in 2016.
TDs obviously aren't the only measuring stick of a WR's success, but it does sure seem like the Ravens are paying for past performance not what OBJ is now. Perhaps they're desperate because there are no more valuable FAs left and the rookie draft is not very robust for WRs.
I wonder if they shopped around for a trade. At one point there were rumors of Mike Evans being traded which I think would have made a lot of sense.
 
Calling Bateman a future star and potentially one of the best WRs in the NFL is a real stretch based on his first two seasons and his situation with the Ravens passing game. Sounds a bit like the Gabe Davis hype last year except Davis plays in an offense with a QB where that kind of breakout potential was valid. Bateman doesn't have the same situation. Very limited pie in the passing game.
I don’t se the Bateman to Gabe Davis comp at all.

Not remotely.

Bateman profiled better, was the 27th overall pick in the 1st, so draft capital is a major factor.

Davis was drafted in the 4th at pick 128

Bateman ran a 4.39, Davis a 4.54

It’s just a bizarre comparison.
 
Just saw that OBJ’s contract has 4 dummy years on it to get him a $3.9M cap hit for 2023. BAL will have to eat the remaining $11.1M next year.
 
Calling Bateman a future star and potentially one of the best WRs in the NFL is a real stretch based on his first two seasons and his situation with the Ravens passing game. Sounds a bit like the Gabe Davis hype last year except Davis plays in an offense with a QB where that kind of breakout potential was valid. Bateman doesn't have the same situation. Very limited pie in the passing game.
I don’t se the Bateman to Gabe Davis comp at all.

Not remotely.

Bateman profiled better, was the 27th overall pick in the 1st, so draft capital is a major factor.

Davis was drafted in the 4th at pick 128

Bateman ran a 4.39, Davis a 4.54

It’s just a bizarre comparison.
Not a bizarre comparison at all. Last season, Davis was being hyped as a break out star by many, often going in the late 3rd round of drafts. Same thing you are doing with Bateman now. Except Bateman isn't nearly in as good of a situation as Davis was.

Based on your draft capital stance, I guess Kardaius Toney is going to be even better than Bateman this year. After all, he was drafted 7 spots higher in the same draft. About the same size and speed as Bateman and plays with a better QB. Maybe trade Amon-Ra St. Brown for Bateman because St. Brown was taken in the 4th round in the same draft and his measurables aren't nearly as good?

Draft capital isn't the end all be all and neither are measurables. Teams make draft day mistakes every year based on measurables. Doubt the Vikings would trade Justin Jefferson for any of the 4 WRs taken before him in the 2020 draft.

But again, knock yourself out with Bateman
 
Calling Bateman a future star and potentially one of the best WRs in the NFL is a real stretch based on his first two seasons and his situation with the Ravens passing game. Sounds a bit like the Gabe Davis hype last year except Davis plays in an offense with a QB where that kind of breakout potential was valid. Bateman doesn't have the same situation. Very limited pie in the passing game.
I don’t se the Bateman to Gabe Davis comp at all.

Not remotely.

Bateman profiled better, was the 27th overall pick in the 1st, so draft capital is a major factor.

Davis was drafted in the 4th at pick 128

Bateman ran a 4.39, Davis a 4.54

It’s just a bizarre comparison.
Not a bizarre comparison at all. Last season, Davis was being hyped as a break out star by many, often going in the late 3rd round of drafts. Same thing you are doing with Bateman now. Except Bateman isn't nearly in as good of a situation as Davis was.

Yes, people were hyping Davis.

I see a world of difference. For one, very little hype on Bateman right now. One person talking him up as a buy-low isn’t remotely the same as every FF writer hyping up Davis as a breakout.

Also, Davis had a true alpha ahead of him in Diggs, whereas Bateman was drafted to BE the Ravens alpha WR.

Not remotely the same.

When I acquired Davis as a toss-in in 2021 dynasty, he wasn’t being drafted anywhere near the 4th, or even 5th, 6th or 7th round pick in FF redraft.

i have no idea where Bateman profiles for 2023 redraft, nor have I suggested any prospective FF draft capital for him.

I merely pointed out the talent, profile, and draft capital the Ravens have invested in him.

It matters.
Based on your draft capital stance, I guess Kardaius Toney is going to be even better than Bateman this year. After all, he was drafted 7 spots higher in the same draft. About the same size and speed as Bateman and plays with a better QB. Maybe trade Amon-Ra St. Brown for Bateman because St. Brown was taken in the 4th round in the same draft and his measurables aren't nearly as good?

Respectfully, these are all strange comparisons and suggestions, not worthy of addressing. They have nothing to do with my suggestion that Bateman is a great buy-low off 2 injury seasons (I recently bought in both of my dynasty leagues for full disclosure/money where my mouth is)

There’s zero similarity between my suggesting Bateman as a rebound buy-low, and the *entire FF ecosystem going gaga over Davis*. None.

Hey, maybe, just maybe the hype machine will start building up prior to fantasy football draft season… And maybe people will jump on the bandwagon and start pushing Bateman up the board.

For now, I seem to be one of the only people diving in on him. I did some research and looked for potential by low wide receivers, and Rashod Bateman stood out to me as a glaring example of a great buy low. Obviously, anyone is welcome to agree or disagree with that sentiment. no judgment.

I think it is woefully premature and remarkably shortsighted to write him off as a bust after two injury plagued seasons.

Draft capital isn't the end all be all and neither are measurables. Teams make draft day mistakes every year based on measurables. Doubt the Vikings would trade Justin Jefferson for any of the 4 WRs taken before him in the 2020 draft.

But again, knock yourself out with Bateman
I don’t think there’s any evidence that Bateman was a “mistake” by the Ravens. 2 injuries doesn’t make him a bust.

That’s where I entirely disagree with your rather hasty dismissal of Bateman as a (apparently) a bust.

But hey, to each their own. Thanks for the well wishes about him - the dude is a great player. A little more luck with health and I see a legitimate FF WR1. A little more passing by LJax and he’s gonna be an NFL WR1 as well.

And relevant to the topic at hand, I still believe he’s the Ravens WR1 despite what OBJ was paid. At least until I see OBJ stay healthy & perform in his age 30 season.
 
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Didn't say Bateman is a bust.

I just don't like his situation as what I think will be the #3 option in a low volume passing game. Even if he ends up as the #2 option, I'm still not excited about him in that offense.

Also think you are overestimating him based on his draft profile. Hasn't translated so far. Plus, needs to stay healthy
 
Unless this is tied to Jackson coming back, this is a really weird move. It is a lot if money and hurts the ability to match an offer for Jackson. I am skeptical he still can be worth 15 million, but I can see the risk if you are in win now mode. Without Jackson, the Ravens aren't winning anything
The only thing that makes sense to me is if Lamar is going to play on the one year tag and this was what it took to get it done and feeling good about it.

It actually makes more sense to me as a short term commitment that gets Jackson to sign a 4-5 year contract.

Per an earlier post, there are dummy years in OBJ's contract, meaning his cap hit is spread over 2023 and 2024 if he isn't back, or they could choose to extend him next offseason if he plays well in 2023. But the key here is not OBJ, it is a multi-year extension for Jackson.
 
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Didn't say Bateman is a bust.
You absolutely did in everything but a direct quote. You said he was a "mistake" as a 1st round pick (he 1000% was not, and even a cursory glance at his college film shows that).

Even if he ends up as the #2 option, I'm still not excited about him in that offense.
This is where I don't entirely disagree - he will likely be at best the 1B option, but more likely the 2nd option behind Andrews. I don't see a realistic scenario where OBJ is the WR1, but will certainly eat crow if I'm wrong about that.

That said, it is worth noting that Greg Roman is no longer the OC, so we really have no idea who the #1 receiving target on the Ravens will be for 2023 or beyond. It very well could be Bateman in a more traditional X WR role.

Also think you are overestimating him based on his draft profile. Hasn't translated so far. Plus, needs to stay healthy
His profile is of a phenomenal athlete who has remarkable speed for his size/build. He was also productive in college, particularly his sophomore year breakout at age 19, of 60 catches for 1219 yards & 11 TDs in 13 games,

Also, Profootball Reference has him at 6'2, 210, FWIW

If Bateman were in the 2023 NFL draft he'd fairly easily be the WR1 on the board, ahead of JSN, Addison, QJ, etc.

Anyway, this is the OBJ topic, and I don't see any reason to go deeper on Bateman in here.
 
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there are dummy years in OBJ's contract, meaning his cap hit is spread over 2023 and 2024 if he isn't back, or they could choose to extend him next offseason if he plays well in 2023. But the key here is not OBJ, it is a multi-year extension for Jackson
It basically a one-year deal.
$15 million for 2023 ranks as the 12 highest paid NFL WR for 2023 and ties the 6th highest % of team payroll of WRs for 2023.
Is OBJ worth 7% of Baltimore's payroll?
What justifies this high one-year signing?
Have to ask the bigger question; how can this signing affect Baltimore's quarterback before justifying the high one-year deal because it makes no sense to sign OBJ to that contract for one-year based on his production.
I would imagine we all know why the Ravens got bent over a railing on this deal.
CONTRACT TERMS:1 yr(s) / $15,000,000SIGNING BONUS$13,835,000AVERAGE SALARY$15,000,000GTD AT SIGN:$13,835,000TOTAL GTD:$13,835,000FREE AGENT:2024 / UFA
BONUS BREAKDOWNCAP DETAILSCASH DETAILS
YEAR AGEBASE SALARYSIGNINGCAP HITDEAD CAPYEARLY CASH
2023bal.png31$1,165,000$2,767,000$3,932,000$15,000,000$15,000,000($15,000,000)
2024bal.png32-$2,767,000$11,068,000$11,068,000-
2025bal.png33-$2,767,000$2,767,000--
2026bal.png34-$2,767,000$2,767,000--
2027bal.png35-$2,767,000$2,767,000
 
Didn't say Bateman is a bust.
You absolutely did in everything but a direct quote. You said he was a "mistake" as a 1st round pick (he 1000% was not, and even a cursory glance at his college film shows that).
Now you're just making stuff up. I said teams make mistakes all the time based on measurables, which is correct. I did not say Bateman was a mistake at 27. Too early to tell. More a response to you incorrectly insisting where someone is drafted plays into performance. Some players who are great athletes just aren't good football players. And no, Bateman would not be the top ranked WR in this class. JSN in a landslide
 

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