WR: Seperating the really great from solid (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

So there is a lot of banter going back and forth about WRs...and with good reason. WR is ine of the few positions where almost anyone can be had with a pick in the draft...you can't say that about RB. Steve Smith is your man and you know he is going to rack up 1800 yds and 18 TD, then you can grab him with almost any pick.

But there seems to be a logjam of WR near the top. Some like Smith, some Chad Johnson, others Owens...I thought we should take a peek and see who really garners consideration at the top. I'll start in order and work down.

Steve Smith:

ADP 2.01

Smith is off to a rough start this season. He has tweaked a hammy and that could have lingering effects for the 2006 season. He did miss most of 2004 with a broken leg. Even at 100% I think he will be hard pressed to duplicate a 1,500/12TD perfromance of a year ago.

1st off the running game will be much improved. DeAngelo Williams is there to take over if/when Foster is injured. Foster and Williams may provide a very nice 1-2 punch on the ground. Add in Keyshawn and I doubt Smith will need to catch 100 balls thiss eason...80 seems more likely and if you dip his number by about 20% from last season, I think 1200/10TD is a bit more realistic this year. Will people be disappointed that take him so high and get that type of production? Owners want a duplication of last season and I don't see that as a likely scenario.

Chad Johnson:

ADP 2.05

Chad now has 3 straight seasons of 1,275+/9-10TDs...that is consistentcy. He is maybe the safest pick as #1WR in the 2nd round. Whoever gets him can almost write in 1,200 yds and 8-10TD without worry. He is clearly the #1 option but has a great running game and decent supporting WR2 and WR3 to keep him open.

There does seem to be ceiling to Chad...but maybe the best is yet to come. he has never had a Moss/owens season of 1,500+/15TD which is really what owners would like to find at this stage of the draft...however his risk factor at this point has to be extremely low.

Larry Fitzgerald:

ADP 2.08

Fitz has really asserted himself to be this young and posting 1,400/10TD in only his 2nd season. His rookie year was pretty good too. He doesn't have the track history of other WR but I really have maintained that despite targets, data, whatnot...he appears to be the #1WR in terms of FF in Arizona. In fact I think Boldin will come down to earth a bit this year as Edge picks up the slack they were missing in the running game. Fitz should still be thought of 1st in the Arizona passing game and I think the best is yet to come from him.

I remeber watching Fitz repeatedly burn everyone in college and he is now catching the ball especially in the end zone in the NFL. I think he will see quite a few TDs when Arizona gets inside the 5 and 10 yard line...Moss like tosses to the corner of the enz zones. Think of how many times the Cardinals had to settle for FGs last season...Fitz could see his TDs increase to 12-15 even if his catches were to drop from 100+ down to maybe 80-85. He's an exciting pick because of the upside but he does come with a little risk...that could easily diminish if he comes out and continues to build on what he did last season. 6 games against SF, StLouis, and yes Seattle do not hurt either. Oak, GB, and Detroit to boot as well.

Torry Holt:

ADP 2.05

This guy doesn't get anough respect. 6 straight seasons of 1,300+ yds, 2 of them were 1,600+. He has crossed 10TD in a couple of those years too. I think we all like Holt, but you have to wonder what the new offense is going to be like.

I will tell you that the Rams have one of if not the worst defenses on paper this season. I can't figure out how they will stop anyone. Haslett is taking over the controls on defense. Either he will make them better against the run, or pass but not both. I'm thinking he can whip the front 7 into mediocrity but their secondary is piss poor IMO. What does this have to do with Holt? Whatever their strategy on offense, when they get down 10-14 points they have to pass the ball.

SJax owners are giddy as they feel the Rams will run more to control the clock better and take pressure of the defense...that sounds good but their OL is nothing to write home about. And even when they can do this, their defense IMO will not stop anyone. Holt will have to produce one way or the other...and it's not like he has to work with a new QB. Good solid safe pick with some upside for a 1,300+/10-12TD year...you can make an arguement he should go 1st.

Terrell Owens:

ADP 2.01...just a hair under Smith

One of only 3 WR to produce 1,000+yds/10+ TD in 5 of the last 8 seasons...they are mighty rare. he had a run in last season or he would have made the feat for a 6th season in all likelihood. Is age a concern at 33? Have you seen the kind of shape he keeps himself in?

Yes he's a hothead. But name another WR that can put up 1,200+yds and 12-15TD? There are only a couple really. Parcells says Owens will not catch 100 balls. He's only reached the feat 1 time so I don't think it's an issue. Owens needs 5 catches a week to make an impact...that's 80 catches and Parcells will get him the ball. he certainly is a target in the redzone.

Owens may or may not be worth the 1st pick of the WR off the board but it's hard to argue with people that feel he is. I can't see how off field issues will hurt him this season. The Cowboys are trying to get into and travel deep into the playoffs...Owens is a big piece of that puzzle.

Randy Moss:

ADP 2.09

People grabbing Portis in the 1st round with the #4 pick can look at Moss as a strong possibility on the board at this spot...times have changed a bit. moss has also put up 1,000+ yds and 10+TD in 5 of the past 8 seasons. but he does not seem like he is on the same destiny as TO right now. Moss takes plays off and I think even with all his talent it affects him on plays where he is actually the prime target.

Moss has not made the splash many though he would in Oakland. I am leery of him. He does have thre ability to explode but injuries have hampered him. I hope Brooks and Moss can get on the same page. To me, Moss is one of the riskiest picks in this top5-8 WR group. I would look at another WR before going to Moss.

Marvin Harrison

ADP: 2.10

1,663/12 TD

1,413/14 TD

1,524/15 TD

1,722/11 TD

1,272/10 TD

1,113/15 TD

1,146/12 TD

7 straight seasons of 1,100+ yds and 10+TD...no other WR can boast this type of production. Throw in the best QB in the league, a WR2 that is also really talented...and now they may have to pass more as Addai will be a rookie and taking over...(Sorry "TD Vulture" Rhodes owners)...why is Harrison going this late? SOme feel he is on the downside of his career.

OK, I can see where he may not be a real legitimate shot at 1,500 yds and 15 TD at this point but you know he's good for at least 1,100 yds and 10-12 TD...the last 2 seasons he has had 15 and 12. This is really a nice consolation prize for those that already have 1 of the top4 RB on their team. A top3-5 WR that you don't have to worry about getting because he is not a sexy pick anymore...YIPPEE!!!

Those are really the top7 WR that many are contemplating getting somewhere in the 2nd round. What say you? Chime in and discuss.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

 

[Marc Levin]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

in PPR leagues, but I see the argument for why his TD production might remain kinda low - and his yardage might take a hit since he is the underneath receiver, and the team has Edge as an excellent receiver out of the backfield.Still, I see the argument - I'd personally keep him under all those guys, though . . .

MoP - one heckofa

great job!

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I don't see any basis for your statements MoP. Unless you're in the business of predicting injuries for WRs, what makes you think Boldin's not on the same level as those other guys?Here's how Boldin and Fitz did when the two were on the field last year.

Boldin: 102-1402-7

Fitz: 86-1266-9

Fitz was great, but Boldin was better last year. I'm not sure what would make you think Boldin would drop off the map this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

in PPR leagues, but I see the argument for why his TD production might remain kinda low - and his yardage might take a hit since he is the underneath receiver, and the team has Edge as an excellent receiver out of the backfield.Still, I see the argument - I'd personally keep him under all those guys, though . . .

MoP - one heckofa

great job!

Thank you Marc. People were buggin for a WR article to mirror the RB thread and I just think you have to rate them in different styles. I have done it in previous seasons, it makes for good banter, but I think fundamentally it's wrong because of the major differences between the positions.I plan on doing the next 20 picks in another thread and going from there. I found Lhucks thread to be very useful. People do need to think about the WR and this is where Dodds and I might disagree. I can't see taking Reuben and Willie Parker when there are some real all stars at WR on the board. And now with some later round gems at RB or RB combos like a Foster WIlliams that you can lock up with a 3rd/4th and a 5/th/6th depending on your league...you need some real firepower. Also the name recognition with these guys and leveraging them for possible upgrades at other positions like RB cannot be understated.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin broke the 100-yard mark in 8 of 14 games last year. :wow:

Fitz: 7/16

Owens: 4/7

Moss: 4/16

Harrison: 6/16

Holt: 6/16

CJ: 4/16

SSmith: 9/16

So Boldin had the best percentage of 100-yard games/games played last year...but you don't think he's in the same tier as those guys??

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I don't see any basis for your statements MoP. Unless you're in the business of predicting injuries for WRs, what makes you think Boldin's not on the same level as those other guys?Here's how Boldin and Fitz did when the two were on the field last year.

Boldin: 102-1402-7

Fitz: 86-1266-9

Fitz was great, but Boldin was better last year. I'm not sure what would make you think Boldin would drop off the map this year.

Let see....EDGE!Fitz was all world in college and has made the transition to the NFL look rather easy. Boldin is good but he simply does not have the pedigree or liking of the HC like Fitz does. Fitz actually knew Denny Green when he was in HIGH SCHOOL!

Let me simply put it this way. You will not find it in the stats...but I truly think Fitz has a lot more upside with his 6-3 225 pound frame in and around the end zone than Boldin does. I realize there will be a ton of people that see it otherwise and that's fine. We debated this last season and Fitz outgained Boldin 205 vs 187...those are the raw numbers. I see Fitz getting more opps as Arizona pushes the ball further this season with Edge...remember that they settled for a record number of FG from Rackers...that will not happen this season. Denny is uinder the gun to make the playoffs, new stadium, I'm not saying they make the playoffs, but Edge is a major major major piece of the puzzle for them. Don't tell me OL...I know they have a mediocre at best OL...but we said the same of LT a few years ago too...and he never had a Fitz/Boldin combo to open the lanes up. Teams cannot commit 7 or 8 in the box t stop Edge lest they be burned on the outside. Eventually they have to sneak in to stop Edge and then it's up over the top time.

My .02 and I realize it's just an opinion.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

I agree, Boldin should be in this tier too. MOP is making good arguments, I however think his arguments are wrong.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I don't see any basis for your statements MoP. Unless you're in the business of predicting injuries for WRs, what makes you think Boldin's not on the same level as those other guys?Here's how Boldin and Fitz did when the two were on the field last year.

Boldin: 102-1402-7

Fitz: 86-1266-9

Fitz was great, but Boldin was better last year. I'm not sure what would make you think Boldin would drop off the map this year.

Let see....EDGE!Fitz was all world in college and has made the transition to the NFL look rather easy. Boldin is good but he simply does not have the pedigree or liking of the HC like Fitz does. Fitz actually knew Denny Green when he was in HIGH SCHOOL!

Let me simply put it this way. You will not find it in the stats...but I truly think Fitz has a lot more upside with his 6-3 225 pound frame in and around the end zone than Boldin does. I realize there will be a ton of people that see it otherwise and that's fine. We debated this last season and Fitz outgained Boldin 205 vs 187...those are the raw numbers. I see Fitz getting more opps as Arizona pushes the ball further this season with Edge...remember that they settled for a record number of FG from Rackers...that will not happen this season. Denny is uinder the gun to make the playoffs, new stadium, I'm not saying they make the playoffs, but Edge is a major major major piece of the puzzle for them. Don't tell me OL...I know they have a mediocre at best OL...but we said the same of LT a few years ago too...and he never had a Fitz/Boldin combo to open the lanes up. Teams cannot commit 7 or 8 in the box t stop Edge lest they be burned on the outside. Eventually they have to sneak in to stop Edge and then it's up over the top time.

My .02 and I realize it's just an opinion.

That's all well and good but it makes no sense IMO to downgrade Boldin because of Edge and not Fitzgerald. Both Fitz and Boldin should be downgraded because the Cardinals will probably pass about 100 times fewer in 2006 than in 2005. But I don't think it matters who knew who in high school, when Boldin's been the better player whenever they're both on the field. They're really like 1 and 1A though, so it doesn't matter much. Easily two of the top 10 WRs in the NFL, and a joy for Cardinals fans for years to come.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin broke the 100-yard mark in 8 of 14 games last year. :wow:

Fitz: 7/16

Owens: 4/7

Moss: 4/16

Harrison: 6/16

Holt: 6/16

CJ: 4/16

SSmith: 9/16

So Boldin had the best percentage of 100-yard games/games played last year...but you don't think he's in the same tier as those guys??

Chase...if you want to chase last years stats then I would love to invite you into my leagues...all of them. I am writing this based on what I expect this year. Too many people simply load in the stats from the year before, make a couple of adjustments and hope for the best. If I am wrong on Boldin, fine, but I have to look at what is on tap for this season...last season the Cardinals had no running game and a lest than average defense...Bomb Away! This season they will retool the defense a bit, the secondary should improve, and with a steady of diet of Edge on the ground someone has to take a step back...that guy will be boldin and many owners will not be happy when he simply put up average numbers that they could have gotten many rounds later in the draft.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I agree, Boldin should be in this tier too. MOP is making good arguments, I however think his arguments are wrong.

And I certainly don't mind the disagreement, it makes for a better thread than if we all agree that both WR will put up 1,200 and 12 TDs...that aint gonna happen I promise.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

Don't forget Boldin had 1400 yards and 7 TD's in only 14 games. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, your saying that he'll drop from #4 in ppg in a non-ppr (TO, Holt, SSmith) and #3 in a ppr (TO, SSmith) all the way down to appx. 19-20 (Jimmy Smith was 19 last year with appx. 1000 and 6).

In other words, his stats in healthy years are going to go from a consistent top line WR1 (better half of the top 12):

101-1400-8 <-- as a ROOKIE!

102-1400-7 <-- new coach, with Fitz

to a poor WR2 (bottom half of the second 12):

73-1000-6 (# of catches based on ypc and 1000 total yards, approximated)

I don't see how this could happen. This would give him 4.5 catches per game. In his healthy years (last year and rookie year), he had only 4 games (out of 30) where he had less than 4 catches, and now he's going to average only 4.5? You're predicting quite a severe dropoff here. I can't argue with your TD prediction, but he is the same talent, and there is not a new coach. This guy produced as a rookie, with and without a stud next to him, and with 2 different coaches. Situations change around him, and he keeps putting up numbers.

Futhermore, why can't Arizona just produce more offense because of Edge instead of him "gobbling WR points?" And if Edge does take some of the overall pie, why does 30 catches and 400 yards of it come from Boldin, and judging by your wording, none of it from Fitz?

I could see knocking Boldin down slightly, I could settle on something like 95-1300-6, but you're overstating things a great deal.

I look forward to a logical response. I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Routilla]

Great thread. Now compare these WRs with the RBs that will likely be available in the same range of picks:McGahee, Parker, Davis, JJones, KJones, Lewis, Dunn in some order depending on what list you are looking at. I think the value is clearly at WR this year after the top 5-6 RBs are gone. Don't reach, grab 2 WRs from this bunch and then you have the rest of your draft to find the gems at RB. There will be atleast 3-4 very good RBs out of Dillon/Maroney, Rhodes/Addai, Bell/Dayne, Jones/Benson etc. Atleast that's my take.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin broke the 100-yard mark in 8 of 14 games last year. :wow:

Fitz: 7/16

Owens: 4/7

Moss: 4/16

Harrison: 6/16

Holt: 6/16

CJ: 4/16

SSmith: 9/16

So Boldin had the best percentage of 100-yard games/games played last year...but you don't think he's in the same tier as those guys??

Boldin went from 8 TDs in 2003 to 7 TDs in 2005...a decrease of about 12.5%Fitz went from 8 TDs in 2004 to 10 TDs in 2005...an increase of 25%

This is a total swing of about 37.5% in a couple of seasons. We can twist stats as we like...you and I have been good at it for a long long time Stu..you know I think your one of the best on FBG, we used to have some great debates when you went under another name...

10 TD vs 7 TD...difference of about 43% it seems.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Great thread. Now compare these WRs with the RBs that will likely be available in the same range of picks:McGahee, Parker, Davis, JJones, KJones, Lewis, Dunn in some order depending on what list you are looking at. I think the value is clearly at WR this year after the top 5-6 RBs are gone. Don't reach, grab 2 WRs from this bunch and then you have the rest of your draft to find the gems at RB. There will be atleast 3-4 very good RBs out of Dillon/Maroney, Rhodes/Addai, Bell/Dayne, Jones/Benson etc. Atleast that's my take.

Exactly my thoughts. I think this year, the shark that gets a decent pick in the draft would do very well to come back in the 2nd and 3rd grabbing a combo like a Harrison/DJax while others take their picks form the mason/Bennett/Housh/Branches of the world. You can use those rounds to go and grab a Tatum maybe or the NE/Car/Indy backfield as they have a lot fo upside if you can grab both. I also like LenDale White and the Gore/Barlow combo which can be had later in the draft. SanFran is going to absolutely suck on defense and their OL is actually decent. Not sure of their WR but with Davis at TE and Turner calling the pays...some RB there is going to tally 1,200 yds and 8 TDs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

Don't forget Boldin had 1400 yards and 7 TD's in only 14 games. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, your saying that he'll drop from #4 in ppg in a non-ppr (TO, Holt, SSmith) and #3 in a ppr (TO, SSmith) all the way down to appx. 19-20 (Jimmy Smith was 19 last year with appx. 1000 and 6).

In other words, his stats in healthy years are going to go from a consistent top line WR1 (better half of the top 12):

101-1400-8 <-- as a ROOKIE!

102-1400-7 <-- new coach, with Fitz

to a poor WR2 (bottom half of the second 12):

73-1000-6 (# of catches based on ypc and 1000 total yards, approximated)

I don't see how this could happen. This would give him 4.5 catches per game. In his healthy years (last year and rookie year), he had only 4 games (out of 30) where he had less than 4 catches, and now he's going to average only 4.5? You're predicting quite a severe dropoff here. I can't argue with your TD prediction, but he is the same talent, and there is not a new coach. This guy produced as a rookie, with and without a stud next to him, and with 2 different coaches. Situations change around him, and he keeps putting up numbers.

Futhermore, why can't Arizona just produce more offense because of Edge instead of him "gobbling WR points?" And if Edge does take some of the overall pie, why does 30 catches and 400 yards of it come from Boldin, and judging by your wording, none of it from Fitz?

I could see knocking Boldin down slightly, I could settle on something like 95-1300-6, but you're overstating things a great deal.

I look forward to a logical response. I'll hang up and listen.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats. Edge will not only do well running the ball but he will eat up probably 40-50 catches out of the backfield. There just will not a be a reason to throw the ball every down. Let's assume Boldin does get more receptions...85/1,200/5-6TD

I still think Fitz will do more with less...72/1,100/13-14 TD...I think Fitz will pay big big big dividends in and around the red zone. He is a big target and has a real knack for coming down with the ball in close quarters...he has done it all throughout college and pro...he has n't come close to peaking yet.

 

[Marc Levin]

great thread guys.

so, besides the Boldin argument, do folks agree with MoP's analysis of the other top-tier WRs?

 

[Guru]

Great thread.  Now compare these WRs with the RBs that will likely be available in the same range of picks:McGahee, Parker, Davis, JJones, KJones, Lewis, Dunn in some order depending on what list you are looking at.  I think the value is clearly at WR this year after the top 5-6 RBs are gone.  Don't reach, grab 2 WRs from this bunch and then you have the rest of your draft to find the gems at RB.  There will be atleast 3-4 very good RBs out of Dillon/Maroney, Rhodes/Addai, Bell/Dayne, Jones/Benson etc.  Atleast that's my take.

Exactly my thoughts. I think this year, the shark that gets a decent pick in the draft would do very well to come back in the 2nd and 3rd grabbing a combo like a Harrison/DJax while others take their picks form the mason/Bennett/Housh/Branches of the world. You can use those rounds to go and grab a Tatum maybe or the NE/Car/Indy backfield as they have a lot fo upside if you can grab both. I also like LenDale White and the Gore/Barlow combo which can be had later in the draft. SanFran is going to absolutely suck on defense and their OL is actually decent. Not sure of their WR but with Davis at TE and Turner calling the pays...some RB there is going to tally 1,200 yds and 8 TDs.

Ditto

 

[MLBrandow]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I'll take that bet. Terms?Oh, and Boldin is going to outproduce Fitz with Warner under center. You can write that down.

edit: solid analysis otherwise. Don't agree with Moss, and also should potentially include Reggie Wayne.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I'll take that bet. Terms?Oh, and Boldin is going to outproduce Fitz with Warner under center. You can write that down.

And that's what makes this a great thread. The ability to debate and disagree. I am going to pull one form the almighty and use an Indiana Jones Leap of Faith when it comes to these 2 WR.As I said, I cannot truly back up all of this with simple stats...205 vs 187 but Boldin did miss time last season and the year before...maybe something to that. But it really goes on what I see...and I feel strongly based on off season acquisitions that Arizona will run the ball more and not settle for as many FGs...and those opps in and around the goal line in my mind will go more towards Fitzgerald.

I could also use this arguement. OK, Boldin is the better WR, and D/C around the league know that and will double team him so Fitz will see more 1 on 1 coverage and be open more...we can slice it however we like.

There is no right/wrong answer but I am sure the Boldin owners will sqirm a bit.

What combos does this tandem remind you of?

Holt/Bruce? I know they didn't finish neck and neck every season

Carter/Reed? Carter/Moss? Both could flourish but 1 always did more than the other.

Duper/Clayton? Sorry but I had to throw in an old Miami reference...What up Fishfans!? Looks like CPepp is ahead of schedule!!! "With the last pick in the 1st round of the 2007 NFL draft...the Miami Dolphins select..." we can dream can't we?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

Don't forget Boldin had 1400 yards and 7 TD's in only 14 games. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, your saying that he'll drop from #4 in ppg in a non-ppr (TO, Holt, SSmith) and #3 in a ppr (TO, SSmith) all the way down to appx. 19-20 (Jimmy Smith was 19 last year with appx. 1000 and 6).

In other words, his stats in healthy years are going to go from a consistent top line WR1 (better half of the top 12):

101-1400-8 <-- as a ROOKIE!

102-1400-7 <-- new coach, with Fitz

to a poor WR2 (bottom half of the second 12):

73-1000-6 (# of catches based on ypc and 1000 total yards, approximated)

I don't see how this could happen. This would give him 4.5 catches per game. In his healthy years (last year and rookie year), he had only 4 games (out of 30) where he had less than 4 catches, and now he's going to average only 4.5? You're predicting quite a severe dropoff here. I can't argue with your TD prediction, but he is the same talent, and there is not a new coach. This guy produced as a rookie, with and without a stud next to him, and with 2 different coaches. Situations change around him, and he keeps putting up numbers.

Futhermore, why can't Arizona just produce more offense because of Edge instead of him "gobbling WR points?" And if Edge does take some of the overall pie, why does 30 catches and 400 yards of it come from Boldin, and judging by your wording, none of it from Fitz?

I could see knocking Boldin down slightly, I could settle on something like 95-1300-6, but you're overstating things a great deal.

I look forward to a logical response. I'll hang up and listen.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats. Edge will not only do well running the ball but he will eat up probably 40-50 catches out of the backfield. There just will not a be a reason to throw the ball every down. Let's assume Boldin does get more receptions...85/1,200/5-6TD

I still think Fitz will do more with less...72/1,100/13-14 TD...I think Fitz will pay big big big dividends in and around the red zone. He is a big target and has a real knack for coming down with the ball in close quarters...he has done it all throughout college and pro...he has n't come close to peaking yet.

Arizona backs caught 86 passes last year out of the backfield. Edge may do more with the catches (keeping the offense on the field more and helping everyone on the offense, including Boldin), but it's not like they didn't use their backs. That argument doesn't hold any water. Edge may steal TDs, but not catches.Also, I never said Bodlin > Fitz. I have them relatively close to equal, and could easily agree to disagree with someone over who will produce more (unless one of the arguments has anything to do with high school). If you're saying Fitz will score more TDs, I think that's very logical. If you're saying he'll have a significantly higher ypc, I strongly disagree, but since I'm not supposed to use numbers to discuss this, I can't provide any evidence. However, the point is that Boldin belongs in the group that you first listed. Period.

Finally, can we do this without your insinuations that anyone not agreeing with you is a mindless follower of last year's stats? TIA.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

Don't forget Boldin had 1400 yards and 7 TD's in only 14 games. Unless you are in the business of predicting injuries, your saying that he'll drop from #4 in ppg in a non-ppr (TO, Holt, SSmith) and #3 in a ppr (TO, SSmith) all the way down to appx. 19-20 (Jimmy Smith was 19 last year with appx. 1000 and 6).

In other words, his stats in healthy years are going to go from a consistent top line WR1 (better half of the top 12):

101-1400-8 <-- as a ROOKIE!

102-1400-7 <-- new coach, with Fitz

to a poor WR2 (bottom half of the second 12):

73-1000-6 (# of catches based on ypc and 1000 total yards, approximated)

I don't see how this could happen. This would give him 4.5 catches per game. In his healthy years (last year and rookie year), he had only 4 games (out of 30) where he had less than 4 catches, and now he's going to average only 4.5? You're predicting quite a severe dropoff here. I can't argue with your TD prediction, but he is the same talent, and there is not a new coach. This guy produced as a rookie, with and without a stud next to him, and with 2 different coaches. Situations change around him, and he keeps putting up numbers.

Futhermore, why can't Arizona just produce more offense because of Edge instead of him "gobbling WR points?" And if Edge does take some of the overall pie, why does 30 catches and 400 yards of it come from Boldin, and judging by your wording, none of it from Fitz?

I could see knocking Boldin down slightly, I could settle on something like 95-1300-6, but you're overstating things a great deal.

I look forward to a logical response. I'll hang up and listen.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats. Edge will not only do well running the ball but he will eat up probably 40-50 catches out of the backfield. There just will not a be a reason to throw the ball every down. Let's assume Boldin does get more receptions...85/1,200/5-6TD

I still think Fitz will do more with less...72/1,100/13-14 TD...I think Fitz will pay big big big dividends in and around the red zone. He is a big target and has a real knack for coming down with the ball in close quarters...he has done it all throughout college and pro...he has n't come close to peaking yet.

Arizona backs caught 86 passes last year out of the backfield. Edge may do more with the catches (keeping the offense on the field more and helping everyone on the offense, including Boldin), but it's not like they didn't use their backs. That argument doesn't hold any water. Edge may steal TDs, but not catches.Also, I never said Bodlin > Fitz. I have them relatively close to equal, and could easily agree to disagree with someone over who will produce more (unless one of the arguments has anything to do with high school). If you're saying Fitz will score more TDs, I think that's very logical. If you're saying he'll have a significantly higher ypc, I strongly disagree, but since I'm not supposed to use numbers to discuss this, I can't provide any evidence. However, the point is that Boldin belongs in the group that you first listed. Period.

Finally, can we do this without your insinuations that anyone not agreeing with you is a mindless follower of last year's stats? TIA.

Glad we agree on that.And I never said that people are mindless followers...not at all.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

And I never said that people are mindless followers...not at all.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats

That didn't sit well with me. Neither did your invitation to Chase to join all of your leagues if he was going to chase last year's stats. No reason to make it personal. Anyways, let's get off of the Fitz comparisons... explain to me why R. Moss is in that group and Boldin isn't. You're saying that you'd draft Randy well before Boldin? If so, why? I'll give you that Randy has a higher upside, but wouldn't you agree that Boldin is much less risky?

 

[joffer]

great thread guys.

so, besides the Boldin argument, do folks agree with MoP's analysis of the other top-tier WRs?

based on mocks that i've done and rankings that i've seen, there does seem to be somewhat of a consensus on the following 8-man tiers:Smith, Holt, Owens, CJ, RMoss, Harrison, Fitz, Boldin

Wayne, Chambers, SMoss, Driver, RWilliams, Jackson, Ward, Burress

Andre Johnson or Javon Walker sometimes sneak into that 2nd tier, but not too often.

personally i've got Wayne sneaking into the bottom of the 1st tier and RMoss falling into the 2nd, but that's just personal preference.

interesting thing is depending on draft position, you can get good value out of both tiers. an early pick usually means that two of the 1st tier will be there for you on the 2nd/3rd round comeback. on the other hand, a late pick (assuming you start RB/RB), means you get what's left of the 2nd tier on the 3/4 swing.

either way, some nice value getting the "end of the tier"

 

[PACKER 7]

Depends on what scoring system you adhere to, I happen to play in both ppr and std scoring leagues.

Based on either, the usual suspects show up, but in my rankings their positions differ quite a bit. I view it from a ppr view just b/c.

WR1 Owens,Terrell DAL

TO is just plain good. I have him down for 95/1362/12. I see no reason he wont be WR1 this season. He just takes over games. Overvalued at pick 10, but if he performs he'll be worth it.

WR2 Holt,Torry STL

Holt is as MOP has stated Mr. Consistent. He was banged up a few games last year so I think most people overlook this guy. I have him 94/1377/10. He will be taken after guys like CJ, RM, SS, but he's just as good and imo better in '06 than these guys, but only slightly. Good value at pick 15

WR3 Johnson,Chad CIN

I have him down for 95/1354/9. I think he'll be asked to do more this season in the way of Ds will focus more on him. I think TJ Hous, will have a big season as well. CJ doesn't get respect he deserves. IMO he works very hard to get open and get Palmer out of trouble. Even though he's a loud guy, he seems very team oriented to me. He'll also get drafted behind RM, SS, even LF I've seen, but he'll be 3 if not better by the end of '06. Good value at pick 16.

WR4 Moss,Randy OAK

I have him 85/1296/12. I don't care what people say Brooks is good for Moss. Also if he can stay healthy he'll eat it up. Oak has potential to be in many high scoring games playing in the West. As MOP said he comes with a little risk, but the rewards can be very high. I don't see taking him b4 17th pick however.

WR5 Smith,Steve CAR

90/1336/10. If his hammy persists these numbers will fall. He hit the top in '05 and will be overvalued in '06, but still merits a low 2nd round pick at 18. KJ will take slightly away from him and no way are teams going to let SS beat them like they did in '05. Down slightly, but still very good.

WR6 Fitzgerald,Larry ARI

90/1360/9. He wont catch 100 balls in '06, but he'll come close. I think he and Boldin are about =. Fitzgerald and Boldin will be asked to do more I think in the way of blocking for Edge. We'll see how that turns out, but at pick 20 a great WR.

WR7 Harrison,Marvin IND

85/1168/12. People are backing way off MH this season as they anticipate a drop in production b/c Wayne has "unseated" him. BS I say. Harrision is still great and he knows how to get open. Also the Colts schedule gets easier this season and he'll repeat '05 numbers. I think he'll be most consistent game to game this year and not have the sluggish start he had in '05. I have him at 22nd pick, but he'll slide lower in most ppr league drafts. Get him mid 3rd and you are golden.

As FYI I included 8,9,10 in my ppr league. I really like Chambers. He has done nothing, but produce under pitiful QBs. Chambers will greatly benefit from DC and an improved Ronnie B. Chambers will set careers high numbers this year in recs and yards IMO.

WR8 Boldin,Anquan ARI

WR9 Chambers,Chris MIA

WR10 Wayne,Reggie IND

About Boldin, I have to disagree with MOP. He'll still be awesome in '06 and if you can get him in the 3rd round late it's a steal.

 

[The Jerk]

And I never said that people are mindless followers...not at all.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats

That didn't sit well with me. Neither did your invitation to Chase to join all of your leagues if he was going to chase last year's stats. No reason to make it personal. Anyways, let's get off of the Fitz comparisons... explain to me why R. Moss is in that group and Boldin isn't. You're saying that you'd draft Randy well before Boldin? If so, why? I'll give you that Randy has a higher upside, but wouldn't you agree that Boldin is much less risky?

I'm with MoP on this one. As I see it...From a statistical argument, career TDs per game:

Fitz 18/32 (.56)

Boldin 16/40 (.40)

(Boldin does have a 10 or so ypg edge for his career.)

From a growth/potential standpoint, keep in mind that this Fitz's thrid season, yet he would be a rookie if he had completed his college eligibility. Boldin is 35 months older. So Fitz has both the "3rd year WR" and the youth factor going for him.

From the intangibles side, Fitz has the temperament, the desire and the dedication to be the best WR in the game. He is as humble as they come, and he has that X factor otherwise known as "it" -- he simply makes plays time after time. I watched his entire career at Pitt and it was an absolute crime that he did not win the Heisman.

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

 

[joffer]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

 

[wannabee]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

 

[mlball77]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

Thats a great question! I think both Fitz and Boldin will take a hit, but if ARI is going to punch more TDs in on the ground, this seems to hurt Fitz more really; as he is more reliant on TDs for his fantasy points and Boldin is more of a PPR threat.Good discussion here, and I like the fact that people are defending their opinions (and thats all they are when it comes to projections... some are more reasonable of course).

 

[The Jerk]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

Good post. To directly answer you, I believe that Arizona will not duplicate their stats last year that saw them finish 128th out of 128 teams from 2002-2005 in rushing yards. That's right, their 2005 total was the lowest since at least 2002. I expect more controlled drives with less long passing TDs. More importantly, what is more repeatable anyway? A season with mostly long TDs or a season with mostly shorter TDs. Besides, if you break down the numbers and count the 20 as being in the red zone, then Fitz led Boldin in both areas: 4-3 outside the 20's, and 6-4 from the 20 and in.Everything doesn't rely on mathematical proof. I'm suggesting that Fitz is going to continue to emerge as the top dog in Arizona. Please understand that this is not to diminish Boldin. He's good; it's just that I believe Fitz is better.

Here's my final thought: You've seen my entire thought process and how I project the season unfolds, but I could be wrong. I'm more than willing to admit that I'm not always right! (Besides, it would be exceedingly boring if all posters thought the same way.)

 

[Marc Levin]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

I don't think Edge is a better RZ target - my argument is that fewer opps will go to Boldin underneath b/c of Edge, esp. from field goal range. As you can see, Boldin's TDs were mostly from FG range (3 from the 20, 1 from the 27, one from the 13). I believe Edge gets a lot of those calls.Three of those seven TDs were on 2nd or 3rd and long - fewer 2nd and 3rd and long, fewer opps to Boldin.

Not disagreeing with Boldin as a top-tier WR, esp. in PPR leagues, just clarifying my belief in why Edge negatively affects Boldin's numbers, and specifically Boldin's numbers.

Fitz's targets are a bit more evenly distributed, IMO.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I don't see any basis for your statements MoP. Unless you're in the business of predicting injuries for WRs, what makes you think Boldin's not on the same level as those other guys?Here's how Boldin and Fitz did when the two were on the field last year.

Boldin: 102-1402-7

Fitz: 86-1266-9

Fitz was great, but Boldin was better last year. I'm not sure what would make you think Boldin would drop off the map this year.

Let see....EDGE!Fitz was all world in college and has made the transition to the NFL look rather easy. Boldin is good but he simply does not have the pedigree or liking of the HC like Fitz does. Fitz actually knew Denny Green when he was in HIGH SCHOOL!

Let me simply put it this way. You will not find it in the stats...but I truly think Fitz has a lot more upside with his 6-3 225 pound frame in and around the end zone than Boldin does. I realize there will be a ton of people that see it otherwise and that's fine. We debated this last season and Fitz outgained Boldin 205 vs 187...those are the raw numbers. I see Fitz getting more opps as Arizona pushes the ball further this season with Edge...remember that they settled for a record number of FG from Rackers...that will not happen this season. Denny is uinder the gun to make the playoffs, new stadium, I'm not saying they make the playoffs, but Edge is a major major major piece of the puzzle for them. Don't tell me OL...I know they have a mediocre at best OL...but we said the same of LT a few years ago too...and he never had a Fitz/Boldin combo to open the lanes up. Teams cannot commit 7 or 8 in the box t stop Edge lest they be burned on the outside. Eventually they have to sneak in to stop Edge and then it's up over the top time.

My .02 and I realize it's just an opinion.

Predicting Fitz and Boldin may be tough, but if I had to take a guy to be better it would be Fitz because I think he is in line for more TD's. TD's, as we know, can be hard to predict year to year, but Fitz's size and hands make him an excellent end zone target, especially after a play action fake to Edge. That being said, MoP's reasons for why Fitz over Boldin really don't have any substance IMO. They are really just opinion without backing (and that is OK, but not persuasive at all)Boldin is much better at YAC, but Fitz's end zone ability should give him some more fantasy points; saying that Edge effects Boldin more than Fitz is kind of silly to me.

I would have Boldin in the 2nd tier, but not for the reasons MoP stated.

Very good post MoP and I agree with the other choices. The one guy who I have a though time rating is Santana Moss. It is possible that now that he has a QB who can throw the ball down field he has taken the next step (Pennington's rag arm), but I am not that convinced with Brunell. I would put Santana in the 2nd group tier.

 

[joey]

great thread guys.

so, besides the Boldin argument, do folks agree with MoP's analysis of the other top-tier WRs?

based on mocks that i've done and rankings that i've seen, there does seem to be somewhat of a consensus on the following 8-man tiers:Smith, Holt, Owens, CJ, RMoss, Harrison, Fitz, Boldin

Wayne, Chambers, SMoss, Driver, RWilliams, Jackson, Ward, Burress

Andre Johnson or Javon Walker sometimes sneak into that 2nd tier, but not too often.

personally i've got Wayne sneaking into the bottom of the 1st tier and RMoss falling into the 2nd, but that's just personal preference.

interesting thing is depending on draft position, you can get good value out of both tiers. an early pick usually means that two of the 1st tier will be there for you on the 2nd/3rd round comeback. on the other hand, a late pick (assuming you start RB/RB), means you get what's left of the 2nd tier on the 3/4 swing.

either way, some nice value getting the "end of the tier"

I'm drafting from the 12 slot in my main money league and I'm going back and forthbetween draft RB/RB or RB/WR at the 1/2 turn. But, as you say above, I can

grab two 2nd tier WRs at the 3/4 turn and I think any of those guys could end

up in the top 10 when the year ends. I can't see how going RB/WR at the 1st turn

is going to put me in a better position overall when I'll have to either do a Foster/Williams

combo and wait til the 5/6 for my 2nd WR (start 3 WRs in the league I'm talking about).

Slight hijack there. Sorry. But back to the point, I'm liking the value of the 2nd tier WRs

so I'm leaning towards RB/RB/WR/WR from the 12 slot.

 

[joffer]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

I don't think Edge is a better RZ target - my argument is that fewer opps will go to Boldin underneath b/c of Edge, esp. from field goal range. As you can see, Boldin's TDs were mostly from FG range (3 from the 20, 1 from the 27, one from the 13). I believe Edge gets a lot of those calls.Three of those seven TDs were on 2nd or 3rd and long - fewer 2nd and 3rd and long, fewer opps to Boldin.

Not disagreeing with Boldin as a top-tier WR, esp. in PPR leagues, just clarifying my belief in why Edge negatively affects Boldin's numbers, and specifically Boldin's numbers.

Fitz's targets are a bit more evenly distributed, IMO.

fair point, but looking at those TD distances, how could you not conclude that Fitz is the better red zone target?what i love about Boldin is how good after the catch he is, i'm wondering how many of the yards on those TDs are YAC.

 

[mike303]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

I'll take that bet. Terms?Oh, and Boldin is going to outproduce Fitz with Warner under center. You can write that down.

Duper/Clayton? Sorry but I had to throw in an old Miami reference...What up Fishfans!? Looks like CPepp is ahead of schedule!!! "With the last pick in the 1st round of the 2007 NFL draft...the Miami Dolphins select..." we can dream can't we?

You must be predicting a Philadelphia/Miami trade following the season...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

Thank you Joffer, this is terrific. Fitz had 4 TD from inside the 10 yard line on a team that kicked more FG than anyone else ever, right? All of Boldin's come from outside the 20 basically...and I think with a more consistent running game the Cardinals will not have to drop bombs from the 30 and 40 all season...therefore I see more opps down around the goal line and Fitz will be the man inside the 10 and 20.

 

[Sweetness_34]

And I never said that people are mindless followers...not at all.

Right, but I do and it has nothing to do with fondling last year's stats

That didn't sit well with me. Neither did your invitation to Chase to join all of your leagues if he was going to chase last year's stats. No reason to make it personal. Anyways, let's get off of the Fitz comparisons... explain to me why R. Moss is in that group and Boldin isn't. You're saying that you'd draft Randy well before Boldin? If so, why? I'll give you that Randy has a higher upside, but wouldn't you agree that Boldin is much less risky?

I'm with MoP on this one. As I see it...From a statistical argument, career TDs per game:

Fitz 18/32 (.56)

Boldin 16/40 (.40)

(Boldin does have a 10 or so ypg edge for his career.)

From a growth/potential standpoint, keep in mind that this Fitz's thrid season, yet he would be a rookie if he had completed his college eligibility. Boldin is 35 months older. So Fitz has both the "3rd year WR" and the youth factor going for him.

From the intangibles side, Fitz has the temperament, the desire and the dedication to be the best WR in the game. He is as humble as they come, and he has that X factor otherwise known as "it" -- he simply makes plays time after time. I watched his entire career at Pitt and it was an absolute crime that he did not win the Heisman.

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

Gotta love the choice of (bolded) words in there.......super

 

[Sweetness_34]

Loving the Boldin vs Fitz debate. Two things I would like to add:

a) Surprisingly no one has mentioned Leonard Pope here in this thread. One thing that folks do not talk a lot about when they mention the Cards is how they do not really have a #3 WR or a #1 TE (Bryant Johnson does not count as a WR ). So, with Pope in there, I think he will take away some of the redzone chances too, especially in the latter half of the year, and in the FF playoffs.

b) In dynasty or keeper leagues, do not forget that both of these WRs will take a hit next year and maybe the year after too. Matt Leinart will have his share of rokkie issues and both will suffer. So, in those leagues, is it a good idea to draft them as high as they are going?? Something to consider....

Good debate none the less....keep it going folks.

 

[Shiver44]

Fitzgerald

+ Touchdowns

+ Durability

Boldin

+ Targets

+ Thus Yards and Catches

Last year, Boldin was the "Number 1" guy last year, and I don't think anything is going to change. With two fewer games, he still had 6 more Targets than Fitzgerald did.

 

[junk17]

great thread!!!

what about when Warner gets hurt for his yearly run on the IR? a rookie QB in the line up does not help either wr imo!

 

[MLBrandow]

great thread!!!

what about when Warner gets hurt for his yearly run on the IR? a rookie QB in the line up does not help either wr imo!

Fitz did better with McCown. And it won't be hard to beat Warner's .9TD per game ratio.In fact, I'm pretty sure just about every QB in the league beat that.

Carr, Vick, Orton, A.Smith are the only four that popped off in my head as worse.

While the yards will go down for sure, I'm not so sure that Navarre at QB will be any worse for TDs.

 

[sjdogs]

agree 100% with the top 7 and agree that boldin will not have a big impact season. i read a great article on when two receivers produce well in a year what happens the following year. Look at wayne and harrison last year. boldin will have 1000 yds and 6-7 tds this year . Fitz is a stud. wayne gets 10+ tds this year IMO

 

[Jason Wood]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

 

[The Jerk]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

But unless Tom Moore and Tony Dungy are headed out into the desert, there's no guarantee Edge maintains his frequency in the red zone. Besides, as I pointed out earlier in this thread, Fitz actually had 4 TDs greater than 20 yards to Boldin's 3.The truth is that none of us knows for sure what's going to happen. Some people are stating that Fitz and Boldin should have identical projections, while I and others suggest Fitz is at the lower end of tier 1 while Boldin is at the upper end of tier 2. There's really not that much of a difference between the two perspectives.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Marvin Harrison

7 straight seasons of 1,100+ yds and 10+TD...no other WR can boast this type of production. Throw in the best QB in the league, a WR2 that is also really talented...and now they may have to pass more as Addai will be a rookie and taking over...(Sorry "TD Vulture" Rhodes owners)...why is Harrison going this late? SOme feel he is on the downside of his career.

Since when does Harrison play with Tom Brady?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

But unless Tom Moore and Tony Dungy are headed out into the desert, there's no guarantee Edge maintains his frequency in the red zone. Besides, as I pointed out earlier in this thread, Fitz actually had 4 TDs greater than 20 yards to Boldin's 3.The truth is that none of us knows for sure what's going to happen. Some people are stating that Fitz and Boldin should have identical projections, while I and others suggest Fitz is at the lower end of tier 1 while Boldin is at the upper end of tier 2. There's really not that much of a difference between the two perspectives.

Boldin actually had 3 more that were exactly 20 yards, so your stat here is a little misleading. He had none inside of 20. Fitz, however, had TDs of 1, 5, 7, and 8. I would think that Edge is much more likely to vulture those TDs than he is Boldins from 20+.

 

[The Jerk]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

But unless Tom Moore and Tony Dungy are headed out into the desert, there's no guarantee Edge maintains his frequency in the red zone. Besides, as I pointed out earlier in this thread, Fitz actually had 4 TDs greater than 20 yards to Boldin's 3.The truth is that none of us knows for sure what's going to happen. Some people are stating that Fitz and Boldin should have identical projections, while I and others suggest Fitz is at the lower end of tier 1 while Boldin is at the upper end of tier 2. There's really not that much of a difference between the two perspectives.

Boldin actually had 3 more that were exactly 20 yards, so your stat here is a little misleading. He had none inside of 20. Fitz, however, had TDs of 1, 5, 7, and 8. I would think that Edge is much more likely to vulture those TDs than he is Boldins from 20+.

Agreed. However, instinctually I expect shorter TDs to be more repeatable in the following season. It's not like Arizona will never try to complete a TD inside the 10 this season. Again, if you want to draft Boldin, go for it. To me, Fitz is the better option.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Marvin Harrison

7 straight seasons of 1,100+ yds and 10+TD...no other WR can boast this type of production. Throw in the best QB in the league, a WR2 that is also really talented...and now they may have to pass more as Addai will be a rookie and taking over...(Sorry "TD Vulture" Rhodes owners)...why is Harrison going this late?  SOme feel he is on the downside of his career.

Since when does Harrison play with Tom Brady?

I bet you think Aikman was better then Dan Marino too. Start anew thread, please don't make this a big issue in this thread...but please start a new one and I'll join in.