To me, Diggs is maybe the toughest guy to value in dynasty. As an owner it feels like a decent time to cash out, as there is a fair bit of hype surrounding him this offseason, but he's just so tantalising. I'd be pretty deflated if I traded him and he did have that WR1 season that many are expecting. I guess he's a hold then.
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WR Stefon Diggs, NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Gawain
Footballguy
Cousins is pretty accurate. I see 350 completions on 530 attempts. Thielen getting 140 targets (8.75 a game) and 91 receptions (65% clip). 1201 yards (13.2 Y/R, a .8 decrease from 16&17).
i have Diggs with 128 targets (8 per game). 79 receptions (62% catch rate). 1098 yards (13.9 Y/R, .6 increase from last year).
That leaves 262 targets and 180 completions for other WR/TE/RB.
Of those, I'd see 95 targets and 60 completions to the rest of the WRs, 82 targets and 55 receptions to the TE and 85 targets and 65 receptions for the RB group.
Gives final lines of:
Cousins: 530 attempts, 350 completions, 4,200 yards, 30TDs (7.9 Y/A touch lhigher than 2017, but lower than '14 and '16)
Diggs: 128 targets, 79 receptions, 1098 yards, 10 TD
Thielen: 140 targets, 91 receptions, 1201 yards, 7TDs
Other WRs: 95 targets, 60 completions, 675 yards, 3TDs
Tight Ends: 82 targets, 55 receptions, 585 yards, 5TDs
Running Backs: 85 targets, 65 receptions, 641 yards 5TDs
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I feel you ambivalence about Diggs, but I am holding because I think his value still has room grow. The biggest issue with Diggs isn't talent but rather durability. His PPG average is top 12 the past two years. I am betting he has figured out how to manage his groin issues and play 16 games this year.
The main issue is probably just that people aren’t sure which of Diggs or Thielen are going to command the larger target share. Most ADP and rankings are based on the “upside” projection in which either player commands the lion’s share. It is highly unlikely that both players live up to their current projections, but very likely that one of them will.
Is it OK to talk about the “Lion’s share” of Cousins’ targets? That sounds like an INT issue to me...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well the thing with Diggs is that he has missed games every year and played decoy in some games that he likely should not have played.
On the surface level of raw stats Adam Thielen has outperformed Stefon Diggs, which is why many vikings reporters were talking about how Thielens contract compares to the contract that Diggs got. Thielen deserves to be paid more.
Over the last 2 seasons Adam Thielen 32 games 234 targets 160 receptions 2243 yards 9 TD.
This is 7.3 targets 5 receptions 70 yards .28 TD on a per game basis.
68.4% catch rate which is above average and 9.6 yards per target has to be the top 10 percentile for all receivers over the last two seasons, I know Thielen was up there when I looked at this last season. He is remarkably efficient based on this metric.
Over the last 2 seasons Stefon Diggs 27 games 207 targets 148 receptions 1752 yards 11 TD
This is 7.7 targets 5.5 receptions 65 yards .4 TD on a per game basis.
71.5% catch rate which is above average and 8.5 yards per target is good but not amazing like Thielen.
If I were to project both out for what their per game averages have been for a full season.
Adam Thielen 16 games 117 targets 80 receptions 1120 yards 4.5 TD = 139 points standard 219 points PPR
Stefon Diggs 16 games 123 targets 88 receptions 1040 yards 6.4 TD = 142 points standard 230 points PPR
This shows that they are very close to the same productivity if you give Diggs the benefit of the doubt that he plays all 16 games which is something he hasn't done yet.
On that note Diggs said he changed his diet and offseason training to help him stay healthy before the 2017 season. He still had a groin injury which cost his games and caused him to be limited in others.
If you are looking for a safer more consistent player its Thielen. If you are looking for a player with more upside, its Diggs.
Adam Thielen greatly benefits from the times that Diggs is injured. His targets go up under that circumstance to more like 10 targets per game. On the flip side of that, Diggs scored a TD 4 games in a row at the end of last season including the Saints game. I don't think Diggs has reached his full potential yet, while I think Thielen has.
As far as trying to figure out how targets may be distributed now with the change in offensive coordinator and Kirk Cousins. I don't really see things changing too much. Diggs and Thielen are still the best two options in the passing game. I do not see Rudolph being used more because of DeFlippo. When you look at Deflippo with the Browns and Barnage, you have to understand that the Browns didn't have anything else. It was an abberation and not very instructive to what the coach might do under these circumstances with the Vikings. Now if Rudolph were as good as Ertz? And the receivers a bit worse than Thielen and Diggs? Sure then maybe the Eagles distribution might make sense. I still think the talent of the players dictates this and that Diggs and Thielen will be the most highly targeted players of the Vikings.
How many targets is that?
I am expecting Cousins to throw the ball 550 times as a median range projection for him. We can slice and dice the past examples but I have done that before and I still arrived at this average number of passing attempts (actualy that is 560 pass attempts so a bit less) pretty much every time I did it. Maybe 540 some times.
123 targets for Diggs would be 22% market share of the pass attempts. This might seem a bit high compared to past numbers because Diggs has missed games.
117 targets for Thielen would be 21% market share of the pass attempts.
I think both rates can coexist and this leaves 57% of the pass attempts left for Rudolph, Cook and whoever becomes the 3rd WR.
They are trying to pump up Treadwell, but I dunno about that. I'm skeptical of him doing much more than last year. No one else is really standing out though. I kind of like Bebe's kid but he has been playing with the 3rd string.
Truebluey
Footballguy
Agreed. But if they use him as they did today, it doesn't matter.
Love that he got both the deep 75-yard bomb, but also the little pass right at the goal line for the walk-in TD. With his speed and agility, they should keep using him the way KC uses Hill.
Truebluey
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Why don't teams put their top corner on Thielen? ADAM THIELEN....COVER ADAM THIELEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
steelers1080
Footballguy
Just traded for him in Dynasty, hoping that teams start to double cover Thielen and that Diggs is the beneficiary.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
That is more like it.
boilerdave
Footballguy
I see it noted that Diggs might see a lot of coverage from Darius Slay. Is that a cause for concern?
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Possibly, it might knock him down a few notches, but he's at 85 targets 1/2 way through the season. Hard to sit a guy like that against any DB matchup.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Agree with Buttonhook's answer and will add that Diggs should get targets but keep your expectations in check. Slay is a very good CB.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Diggs did not practice today or any time this week, however he is listed as questionable on the injury report, so he might play.
Will he play like his normal self? Or will he be a decoy? He has played through injuries before and does not put up very good numbers when he has.
As noted above Diggs will often draw Darius Slay who is a good corner who matches up well with Diggs, if Diggs is also not 100% it makes this match up more challenging for him.
In Diggs 4 games vs the Lions in his career thus far, the worst he has done is 7 targets 5 receptions 66 yards 1 rushing attempt 9 yards.
Currently Diggs has the 4th most targets in the league (after Thielen, Landry, Beckham) with 85 targets (10.6 targets per game) and 5th in receptions (after Thielen, Beckham, Ertz, Barkley) with 58 (7.25 receptions per game) so as he is going to play seems unlikely anyone would bench him, for who?
But yes this may be a down game for Diggs. I think Diggs wins with how sharply he cuts when route running, and if the ribs are bothering him, he likely isn't going to be doing that as well as he usually does.
Will he play like his normal self? Or will he be a decoy? He has played through injuries before and does not put up very good numbers when he has.
As noted above Diggs will often draw Darius Slay who is a good corner who matches up well with Diggs, if Diggs is also not 100% it makes this match up more challenging for him.
In Diggs 4 games vs the Lions in his career thus far, the worst he has done is 7 targets 5 receptions 66 yards 1 rushing attempt 9 yards.
Currently Diggs has the 4th most targets in the league (after Thielen, Landry, Beckham) with 85 targets (10.6 targets per game) and 5th in receptions (after Thielen, Beckham, Ertz, Barkley) with 58 (7.25 receptions per game) so as he is going to play seems unlikely anyone would bench him, for who?
But yes this may be a down game for Diggs. I think Diggs wins with how sharply he cuts when route running, and if the ribs are bothering him, he likely isn't going to be doing that as well as he usually does.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was just reading that Slay is listed questionable with a knee injury, so DIggs being gimpy and questionable might be cancelled out by Slay also being questionable.boilerdave said:
As far as looking at tie breakers and whatnot in trying to decide who to start.
It looks like DIggs will play, so you would need to have a lot of very good WR alternatives to consider benching him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He hasn't put up good numbers playing injured in the past thats true.
This injury may be different and so the outcome may be different. However rib injury should limit his ability to cut as suddenly as he usually does. In my view it is those violent cuts he makes that contribute to him being injured at times, he hurts himself playing so hard. He has taken a few big hits along the way this year as well, which may contribute to this injury.
Crowell has been very inconsistent. He has had two good games and six bad games out of the 8 they have played so far this year. One out of four games he is worth starting. He does have a juicy match up this week against the Dolphins though who have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to RB over the first half of the season so far, 24.8 points per game in standard scoring.
Its a tough call, I would normally say Diggs over Crowell pretty easily, but Crowell does have a juicy match up ahead of him.
boilerdave
Footballguy
Dacomish
Footballguy
I'm waiting on Sunday inactives which may make my decision alot easier but I'm leaning towards starting Aaron Jones in the flex. If he is active it's real hard not to plug him in there.....especially with Slay popping up now as questionable after a limited practice Friday.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/10380/stefon-diggs
ESPN's Courtney Cronin reports Stefon Diggs's (questionable, ribs) status is in doubt for Sunday's game with Detroit.
The Vikings promoted Chad Beebe from the practice squad, a sign they don't expect Diggs to be active. Diggs played through his injury Sunday night but was always on the wrong side of questionable after not practicing all week. The Vikings have incentive not to push Diggs with an upcoming bye. Kyle Rudolph and Laquon Treadwell will see increased targets if Diggs sits. Nov 3 - 11:02 AM
Source: ESPN
ESPN's Courtney Cronin reports Stefon Diggs's (questionable, ribs) status is in doubt for Sunday's game with Detroit.
The Vikings promoted Chad Beebe from the practice squad, a sign they don't expect Diggs to be active. Diggs played through his injury Sunday night but was always on the wrong side of questionable after not practicing all week. The Vikings have incentive not to push Diggs with an upcoming bye. Kyle Rudolph and Laquon Treadwell will see increased targets if Diggs sits. Nov 3 - 11:02 AM
Source: ESPN
Franknbeans
Footballguy
between Ingram, Coutee or Rudolph now
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Get healthy Mr Diggs.
TartanLion
Footballguy
That’s who I’m going with. Either that or I can grab DJ Moore off the wire. Not sure between those two
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
Why not? Bears defense has been very generous to opposing WRs this season. Nowhere near a Top 10 defense against WRs. Yes they get a lot of sacks and they can disrupt the O-line
and make life uncomfortable for Cousins, but he's one of the best at giving his WRs a 50/50 chance at the ball.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Diggs practiced all week prior to the Packers game and was not listed on the injury report as he had fully recovered from his rib injury.
This week he has a knee injury which must have occurred during the game against the Packers, so this is new.
There have been times in the past where Diggs did not practice all week but still played. I do not think he has done well in that situation, as the Vikings mostly used Diggs as a decoy in games where he was hurt and didn't practice before the game.
Maybe this is different and Diggs will be fine. I am not sure how serious his knee injury is. Zimmer did mention giving players more rest during the week following the bye, so it might just be that.
I need more information and I doubt there is going to be any in regards to if Diggs knee injury is serious or not.
its his birthday today too. maybe they gave him a day off considering that too. but if he doesn't practice tomorrow then i bet he doesn't play.
Dizzy
Footballguy
Kind of the way I remember it too over the past couple of seasons... when he's a full go (full practice), he looks like a world beater. Really drops below average when fighting through something though.
Thielen banged up as well (calf).
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah. He always says that.
I do tend to believe him in this case. He said the same thing though earlier this year and didn't play.
So hard to say.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
wait..Diggs is hurt, again?! say it isn't so..
it's becoming so routine for this guy. he's on 2019's do not draft list, along with Fournette. and Cooper Kupp-cake.
it's becoming so routine for this guy. he's on 2019's do not draft list, along with Fournette. and Cooper Kupp-cake.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Curious why Cooper Kupp is on your DND list? You just mad he ruined your season this year? I don't see a logical reason for grouping him in with Diggs and Fournette.wait..Diggs is hurt, again?! say it isn't so..
it's becoming so routine for this guy. he's on 2019's do not draft list, along with Fournette. and Cooper Kupp-cake.
