WR Tyler Lockett, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

[Faust]

Rookie Tyler Lockett continues to give Seahawks boost

 

[Tau837]

Sure, but you are overstating it by referencing the two edge points (Seattle with Lynch vs. Dan Marino). The truth will almost certainly lie in the middle.

True. Extreme hyperbole on my part.

Seattle's pass attempts have gone up in each season with Wilson at QB, from 405 to 420 to 454. I expect that trend to continue this year with Lynch still the primary RB.

Not sure I agree here. For me I expect about the same. I see more random variation here as opposed to a trend. Here's a thought: Instead of looking at seasons as only three data points, wouldn't it be better to view individual games as data points (about 50 now)? This wouldn't be hard to analyze from a purely statistical approach. I could conduct a hypothesis test to see how well the data creates a slope greater than zero. Will only take me a few minutes when I get back to my classroom on Monday.

Look at it this way. How many games with 30+ passing attempts has Wilson had per season?

2012: 3 of 16 games

2013: 4 of 16 games

2014: 7 of 16 games

2015: 2 of 2 games

Could be either random variation or trend, but that would be quite a coincidence if the random variation just happened to go up as Wilson has progressively gained experience, confidence, and the trust of the coaching staff.

I dumped his first 50 games passing attempts into Excel. Plotted the data and found a trend-line including the R^2 value. Was a bit surprised at looking at some of the data. Will share when I have time later.

The trend line has a positive slope.

y = .117 x + 23.475

x is the number of games started

y is the predicted number of passing attempts

When I perform a t-test against the null hypothesis that slope = 0 I get a t value of about 2.01. That's two standard deviations above the mean yielding a p-value of about 0.03. This means that a positive slope could have occurred by random chance about 3 percent of the time. That's very rare in my opinion indicating the upward trend. However, with a prediction slope of only 0.117 were talking about 1 extra passing attempt every 9 games, and that will have to level off at some point.

Other thoughts about this data:

• The year two numbers were very similar to year one. When I conduct a test using only year 2 and 3 there's a greater slope yielding an extra passing attempt every 6 games.
• The more I ponder the team situation, the less I think any of this data analysis is worth the time. I believe the team success is the better indicator for predicting Wilson passing attempts. If they were winning, he had fewer passing attempts.
• Passing attempts per game in a win: 25.2
• Passing attempts per game in a loss: 29.9

Just more food/data for thought. If I were in a dynasty situation I wouldn't value Lockett that much because I don't believe in his situation. That said, I'm glad he's in Seattle. I think he'll be a great asset in the team's future success. Who knows how long Carroll and company will remain in Seattle? But as long as Pete and company are calling the shots I don't think anyone will be consistently happy with any Seattle receiving targets on their fantasy roster other than maybe Graham. Time will tell.

EDIT: Had the win/loss prediction numbers backwards.

Interesting data here: Is The Beast Yet To Come, Or What?

How will Pete and the staff manage Lynch's re-integration into the offense and manage his touches? Will Lynch even be effective? Will he return at all, for that matter? And when, exactly? The eventual decision is made more complex by the on-field performance of the two men.

2015 Rawls: 150 touches for 862 yards and five scores

2015 Lynch: 124 touches for 497 yards and three scores

Oh yes there is plenty more. Without going into each runner's style and skillset, one important number leaps out:

2015 Rawls: 5.6 YPC

2015 Lynch: 3.8 YPC (his lowest since joining the Hawks full time)

And then, one of my favorites, success rate. Is the play a success (earning at least half the distance to a first down, or converting a third down) when you hand it off to one of these guys?

2015 Rawls: 61 percent

2015 Lynch: 50 percent

In the previous two seasons, Lynch had accumulated 654 touches, scoring 31 times. A touchdown for every 21 times you got him the ball. Those aren't just monster fantasy stats -- they're Cantonesque.

Yet with him on the bench this season, the Seahawks have scored more frequently, more consistently, just more more.

With Lynch: 31, 17, 26, 13, 23, 20, 13. Average of 21.9 points.

Without Lynch: 24, 29, 39, 38 points. Average of 32.5 points.

When Lynch and Rawls share duties: 32 points.

The sample size is small and the opposition faced plays a part, no doubt. But when combined with the other stats listed above, it becomes really hard to say the 2015 offense has functioned better with Lynch.

Wilson is currently on pace for 470 passing attempts on the season, continuing the upward trend throughout his career, and he has 30+ attempts in 7 of 12 games this season.

Wilson is on fire, and the offense is excelling without Lynch. This just further bolsters my opinion that the team is going to rely on Wilson more going forward, and the passing attempts will continue to go up. From a fantasy perspective, Lockett should definitely benefit.

 

[In The Zone]

I'm really debating putting Lockett in my lineup this week in place of either TY or Gurley. I love the matchup but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

 

[Phantom Knight]

I'm really debating putting Lockett in my lineup this week in place of either TY or Gurley. I love the matchup but don't know if I can pull the trigger.

In the same boat. The ceiling with Locket is high, but the floor is scary. This week, I gulped and put Lockett in the lineup in lieu of Amari Cooper.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

BOOM!

 

[ShaHBucks]

I thought Lockett would take longer, but he's just in time

 

[Van Dyman]

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I thought Lockett would take longer, but he's just in time

Yeah but you're wrong about everything, so there is that.

 

[packersfan]

Missed out on Edelman in Waivers last night and got Lockett. Sure hope this is for real. He definitely has looked real good the past month or so.

 

[MattFancy]

Thinking about trotting him out this week. Cleveland secondary has been awful and Lockett has been red hot since Graham went down: 13/194/2 the last 2 weeks.

 

[Gottabesweet]

I get one point per 25 return yards... Thinking about playing him over Cooks?

Anyone else?

 

[packersfan]

I get one point per 25 return yards... Thinking about playing him over Cooks?

Anyone else?

If I had Cooks I don't think I'd ever sit him in the dome.

 

[Alexanderson]

Lockett over Crabtree this week? What say you? HAAAALLLPP!

 

[thehoch]

If it works, keep doing it right. I think Pete would want to keep dialing him up and get him primed for a playoff run. I just picked him up and I'll probably start him. My only fear is the Hawks get a big early lead and dial it down.

 

[Thunderlips]

I'm starting him over Dez. Yeah...I know..."cool story, Bro"......but I think he has enough upside against a CLE team than an established elite WR playing against Revis Island.

 

[mr roboto]

If it works, keep doing it right. I think Pete would want to keep dialing him up and get him primed for a playoff run. I just picked him up and I'll probably start him. My only fear is the Hawks get a big early lead and dial it down.

This exact thing happened the last 2 weeks and Wilson kept throwing.

 

[packersfan]

I'm starting him over Dez. Yeah...I know..."cool story, Bro"......but I think he has enough upside against a CLE team than an established elite WR playing against Revis Island.

Says a lot about where things are at with Dez right now but I think that's a slam dunk. You have one WR who's rolling with a red-hot QB vs. another who isn't producing with a QB who sucks.

 

[Menace]

Starting him over Dez (and LaFell ) too

 

[AcerFC]

Lockett over Crabtree this week? What say you? HAAAALLLPP!

I actually dropped Crabtree for Lockett this week.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Have a waiver claim in for him. if I get him, i would be starting him over Sanders and Snead.

 

[Alexanderson]

Lockett over Crabtree this week? What say you? HAAAALLLPP!

I actually dropped Crabtree for Lockett this week.

Damn. Leaning toward it for sure. Did it last week (because Denver) and it paid off big time. I'm in a situation where pretty much my entire team is playable. I'm good a depth but I always end up not having too many elite dudes. These decisions kill me.

 

[AcerFC]

Lockett over Crabtree this week? What say you? HAAAALLLPP!

I actually dropped Crabtree for Lockett this week.

Damn. Leaning toward it for sure. Did it last week (because Denver) and it paid off big time. I'm in a situation where pretty much my entire team is playable. I'm good a depth but I always end up not having too many elite dudes. These decisions kill me.

I should have said this before, my bad

Lockett is currently not in my starting lineup. Im going with Hopkins, A Robinson and Landry right now. Although, I could swap Lockett or Hightower for Landry.

 

[MattFancy]

Right now I have Lockett in over Dez/Draughn in a PPR

 

[Los Gigantes]

I just got Lockett to keep him away from my opponent. Not starting him. Rolling with ODB, Julio Jones, ARob, and AJ Green instead.

 

[LawFitz]

If Lockett finishes the season on the pace he's on now, any chance left for OROY honors?

 

[red]

If it works, keep doing it right. I think Pete would want to keep dialing him up and get him primed for a playoff run. I just picked him up and I'll probably start him. My only fear is the Hawks get a big early lead and dial it down.

This exact thing happened the last 2 weeks and Wilson kept throwing.

no Lynch...no Rawls...Bryce Brown and CMike (and FJax) may be too much for Pete to trust if wanting to run out the game

 

[Los Gigantes]

If Lockett finishes the season on the pace he's on now, any chance left for OROY honors?

Depends on how gurley finishes.

 

[gagull]

I'll probably regret it, but he's on my bench behind Fitz, Alshon, and Hightower at flex. AP and DeAngelo starting RBs

PPR.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Weather in Seattle, Sunday late afternoon (from what I have read) is expected to be 40s, rain or "rain to showers" (80-90% chance of rain), and winds in the 15-20 mph range. Just something to consider.

 

[ourmanflint]

Weather in Seattle, Sunday late afternoon (from what I have read) is expected to be 40s, rain or "rain to showers" (80-90% chance of rain), and winds in the 15-20 mph range. Just something to consider.

Spotty showers is what I'm reading. It's Seattle. Always a chance of rain but they aren't calling for a continuous sustained downpour.

 

[Biabreakable]

I was looking at WR catch rate statistics earlier and I was impressed to find out that Tyler Lockett leads all WR with 50 or more targets in catch rate with 80%

Here are the top 12 in the league thus far this season:

T.Lockett 51 540 5 80%

D.Amendola 81 628 3 77%

D.Baldwin 80 860 11 76%

K.Allen 89 725 4 75%

J.Crowder 65 461 1 75%

L.Fitzgerald 129 1,088 7 74%

C.Beasley 59 417 3 71%

Jo.Brown 77 895 5 71%

R.Matthews 61 662 4 70%

J.Maclin 103 937 5 70%

J.Edelman 88 692 7 69%

J.Kearse 52 508 3 69%

Three of these WR are all Seahawks. That is an amazing credit to how well Wilson is playing right now.

 

[ourmanflint]

I was looking at WR catch rate statistics earlier and I was impressed to find out that Tyler Lockett leads all WR with 50 or more targets in catch rate with 80%

Here are the top 12 in the league thus far this season:

T.Lockett 51 540 5 80%

D.Amendola 81 628 3 77%

D.Baldwin 80 860 11 76%

K.Allen 89 725 4 75%

J.Crowder 65 461 1 75%

L.Fitzgerald 129 1,088 7 74%

C.Beasley 59 417 3 71%

Jo.Brown 77 895 5 71%

R.Matthews 61 662 4 70%

J.Maclin 103 937 5 70%

J.Edelman 88 692 7 69%

J.Kearse 52 508 3 69%

Three of these WR are all Seahawks. That is an amazing credit to how well Wilson is playing right now.

Nice post. Even before seeing this I was leaning towards starting Lockett on 2 teams this week over Martavis Bryant and Randall Cobb.

 

[White Lightning]

I'm debating between Lockett and J Brown as my WR3. Phili has one of the worst FF pass defenses in the league, but I need at least 15pts from this spot due to Martins clunker last night.

 

[John Paul]

Amendola or Lockett? PPR.

 

[Thunderlips]

Amendola or Lockett? PPR.

Amendola - higher floor - lower ceiling. Lockett.....not exactly a Hail Mary.....but if I'm needing a Christmas Miracle.....I'd go with him.

 

[The Claymaker]

This Lockett kid appears to have a great future in real football, fast and good hands and with Wilson throwing more has great FF potential as well. Looks to be another really good pick by the Hawks. B^%+^{ds!!

 

[Hooper31]

... but they aren't calling for a continuous sustained downpour.

"continuous sustained downpours" show up in Seattle about as often as Bigfoot.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Bloom has him as the 6th best RB/WR/TE flex play this week in PPR leagues.

Now I'm thinking him or Cooks, as I get return points.

 

[Chickenwang]

I can see a 6 for 60 line with 0TD.

 

[MG345]

... but they aren't calling for a continuous sustained downpour.

"continuous sustained downpours" show up in Seattle about as often as Bigfoot.

Uh...guess you haven't been around the past month.

 

[ourmanflint]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

 

[MNTom]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

National Weather Service has winds up to 26 mph and some rain

 

[avina1]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

80% chance of rain now

 

[packersfan]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

80% chance of rain now

I'm not concerned about the passing game right now due to weather although I am looking at it more in terms of starting Hauschka. I was kind of hoping this would be a game where he kicked some FGs again. But if we're looking at 30 mph winds I may re-think that one.

 

[MNTom]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

80% chance of rain now

I'm not concerned about the passing game right now due to weather although I am looking at it more in terms of starting Hauschka. I was kind of hoping this would be a game where he kicked some FGs again. But if we're looking at 30 mph winds I may re-think that one.

Latest forecast has lessened the rain chances during the game and the winds are now looking to be under 20

 

[packersfan]

All snarkiness aside, locals....what are you hearing about the weather Sunday? Everything I am reading gives me no pause in starting anyone in the Seahawks passing game.

80% chance of rain now

I'm not concerned about the passing game right now due to weather although I am looking at it more in terms of starting Hauschka. I was kind of hoping this would be a game where he kicked some FGs again. But if we're looking at 30 mph winds I may re-think that one.

Latest forecast has lessened the rain chances during the game and the winds are now looking to be under 20

Thanks. If that holds up there's nothing to worry about in my opinion.

 

[Faust]

Tyler Lockett's speed, versatilely taking center stage in Seattle

 

[Biabreakable]

Lockett since the Seahawks have returned from their bye week

46 75.4% 1 target 1 reception 7 yards

54 69.2% 5 targets 4 receptions 48 yards 2 TD 1 rushing attempt 5 yards 53 total yards

48 77.4% 3 targets 3 receptions 38 yards

38 55.9% 7 targets 7 receptions 90 yards 1 rushing attempt 7 yards 97 total yards

46 65.7% 7 targets 6 receptions 104 yards 2TD

55 77.5% 7 targets 5 receptions 55 yards 1TD

Total

287 30 targets 26 receptions 342 yards 5TD 2 rushing attempts 12 yards 354 total yards

Per game average since the bye 48 snaps 5 targets 4.3 receptions 57 yards .83 D 59 total yards

The last 3 games Locket has averaged 7 targets 6 receptions 85 total yards 1TD per game.

 

[Tau837]

He can score on any play from anywhere on the field, which is rare. His college career shows that he is a complete WR, not just a deep threat.

IMO he is the best WR on the team right now, and is a top 30 dynasty WR without having played a regular season snap.

 

[mr roboto]

He can score on any play from anywhere on the field, which is rare. His college career shows that he is a complete WR, not just a deep threat.

IMO he is the best WR on the team right now, and is a top 30 dynasty WR without having played a regular season snap.

Good call but one problem - SEA still spreads targets around a ton. Baldwin, Kearse, Lockett... And TDs are variable. If Lockett and Baldwin can clearly separate themselves long term in this offense they could both be top 20 WRs. But a lot of the recent production for both is in conjunction with Lynch then Rawls going down and Graham out.