Tau837
Footballguy
It is the Pete Carroll philosophy, and he doesn't change it unless forced to by injuries. I mean, Pete hired Brian Schottenheimer as his OC to follow Bevell. That sums it up right there.
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WR Tyler Lockett, TEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LawFitz
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Apple Juice
Footballguy
It's hard to argue with their success. Seattle always seems to have a respectable defense and is able to churn out first downs by pounding it between the tackles. If their defense or run blocking falters, like any team they'll have no choice but to throw the ball more.
Lockett was on fire last year until he got dinged up. I get why there isn't a groundswell of hype around him but he absolutely has WR1 potential. He was one for the first half of the year last year. One of the better high upside, high floor options out there based on how he's currently valued.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah through the first 10 weeks prior to the injury he was on pace for 99-1268-11. WR3 or something like that at the time of the injury.
Tau837
Footballguy
It's easy to argue it. Schottenheimer has been the OC for 2 seasons. In those 2 seasons:
- They are 22-13. Of those 22 wins, 9 of them came on game winning drives led by Wilson. It doesn't seem reasonable to count on this as an element for sustained success. Without looking, I assume that there are several games within the 13 losses that the late game comeback just fell short.
- They have won one playoff game and have not played a home playoff game.
- They have had one of the top few QBs in the NFL, in his prime, yet have been #32 and #23 in passing attempts.
As for Lockett, I don't think he will get enough targets to be a WR1, thanks in part to the offensive philosophy.
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Apple Juice
Footballguy
Fair. I'm using the term success loosely, in that they're typically always in the playoff hunt. It's been a few years now since their superbowl runs.
But I'm guessing that's why it's tough for Carroll to abandon what has worked for him in the past. Most would agree he's not taking maximizing Wilson's value and it has hurt them in the playoffs.
leave a whisper
Footballguy
we still view him as a rock solid WR 2 ??...... DK cut too much into him? are they going to end up signing A Brown? ....... any updated info from Seahawks off season ?
Truebluey
Footballguy
Current ADP ppr is 50 (WR 21). So round 5.
Wrs ahead of him, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley. I might take him over Allen.
Right after him, DK Metcalf, DJ Chark, Devante Parker. Just shows how deep the position is this year. After those guys, you are drafting a WR3.
Wrs ahead of him, Keenan Allen, Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley. I might take him over Allen.
Right after him, DK Metcalf, DJ Chark, Devante Parker. Just shows how deep the position is this year. After those guys, you are drafting a WR3.
leave a whisper
Footballguy
my personal ranks I have him as WR 12 in standard ....... I keep looking for reasons to lower him -- thinking I just like him more than most
I've got him as WR10. He was tearing up before his injury, and has a very high floor, with a much higher ceiling than he is being drafted at. Guys like Allen, Woods, Chark, and Parker aren't in his league at all in my opinion.
There is absolutely room for both of them to be top-15 WR's. Seattle doesn't really use their ancillary options that much. They don't don't have a heavily used pass catcher at RB, or a #3 WR, or a major TE.
Also Wilson did not only have eyes for Metcalf after Lockett's injury, in fact, Lockett actually outproduced Metcalf over the last 6 games. More catches, more yards, and equal TD's.
I'd be pretty ok ending up with both Lockett and Metcalf, as my 2/3 WR's.
Tau837
Footballguy
Disagree.
They haven't used their TEs much recently primarily due to injuries. They are going to have a really strong TE group this year if they remain healthy (Olsen, Dissly, Hollister), and I expect their TE targets to go up quite a bit.
I also expect they will sign Gordon as their WR3, pushing Dorsett to WR4. That is much stronger WR 3-4 depth than last season. That implies more WR 3-4 targets.
Combine that stuff with the low volume passing attempts, and I think there is very little chance that Lockett finishes as a top 20 WR.
Yeah, we disagree on this. I think Hollister is a JAG that Wilson basically willed some production out of, Dissly is coming off a major injury(again) so who knows if he's anything, and Olsen is 35, though if anyone does anything it'll likely be him. I'm not sure Dorsett is any better than Moore, Brown, or whomever else they had a year ago, Dorsett was hardly relevant with Tom Brady, and less target competition. Gordon is a bit of a wildcard, but I think he'll exist more as a clear out guy, than anything else(assuming he even signs) much like he did last year.
Maybe we have different opinions on Wilson too, and that is some of the issue. I have Wilson as QB3, and that is without a rushing spike. I think 35+ TD's is realistic.
I'm pretty all in on Seattle's offense this year. If I end up with Wilson, Carson(RB2), Lockett(WR2) and Metcalf(WR3) I'd be pretty excited about it. I just think the offense goes threw them, and everyone else is competing for scraps.
Tau837
Footballguy
Nope, I have Wilson as a top 3 QB. That's a nobrainer.
I definitely expect more from the TEs than you do. I'm also expecting more 12 personnel, barring major injuries.
I definitely expect more from Gordon and Dorsett than you do. Last season, Seattle's #3 and #4 targeted WRs were Moore and Brown, who combined for 62 targets while each playing 14 games. I'll take the over on targets for Gordon and Dorsett if they each play 14 games.
Referencing last year in Seattle for Gordon as if it is predictive seemingly ignores that he joined the Seahawks midseason with no prep. They claimed him on November 1, and he played his first game for Seattle on November 11. Perhaps you don't agree, but I expect he will be a bigger part of the offense if re-signed, given he will actually have some experience and preseason time in the offense in 2020.
Finally, since you characterized Lockett as a WR2 and Metcalf as a WR3, it seems that I also expect more out of Metcalf than you do. Metcalf had 69/1119/8 on 114 targets in 18 games. Compare that to Lockett's 95/1255/9 on 128 targets in 18 games. Probably a smaller margin than some realize. Metcalf was a rookie; Lockett was in his 5th season in the NFL. IMO Metcalf will surpass Lockett this season.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If Dissly somehow comes back at 100% I agree he will get a fair share of targets. Not too worried about Oldsen or Hollister or Dissly at 70%.
I may be misremembering but didn't we have this exact same discussion speculating Seattle's WR3/WR4 getting a bunch of additional targets last year too? I could be thinking about another player/poster but it sounds very familiar.
I could see some 12 personnel, if they don't sigh Gordon. If they sign Gordon, I expect him to probably cannibalize the Moore/Brown targets. I think Dorsett sucks. He'll be hard pressed to top 25 catches regardless of Gordon or the TE's. I wouldn't be shocked if Dorsett was beaten out for a role by Moore or some unknown.
I was speaking more to where you can draft Lockett/Metcalf then where I value them. I have them both as top-15 WR's, but Metcalf seems to go at least a round later. I think what they did in 18 games a year ago, is very much what they can do in 16 games this year, as Lockett got banged up, and Metcalf was a rookie. So I was saying I like the idea of drafting Lockett as a WR2 and Metcalf as a WR3 together. I could live with either as my #2 and would be thrilled with either as a #3, which seems pretty doable by their ADP's.
Faust
MVP
With all of the early press clippings coming out with glowing news on D.K. Metcalf, Lockett is flying a little under the radar right now:
Gallant’s Seahawks mock game takeaways: Lockett is still Wilson’s favorite
Excerpt:
Gallant’s Seahawks mock game takeaways: Lockett is still Wilson’s favorite
Excerpt:
MAC_32
Footballguy
There's just so many WR's available with a comparable range of potential outcomes I can't justify him at his current price point. His last two years have been by far his best and he's still just around WR20-25 on per game rates. His efficiency is an indicator that they should consider using him more, but we're 5 years deep into his career and they still haven't. And volume matters.
I don't think he's a bad 4th round pick, but I want more upside at WR in that round..
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Agreed. Either more upside or more value. That is the beauty of tier-based drafting.
There are at least 10-12 guys you can lump in with similar range of projected stats as Lockett (Sutton, Chark, Woods, etc). Just wait and grab the last one 1-2 rounds after the first one goes.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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zamboni
Footballguy
It's amazing that this guy still isn't talked about very much when the discussion of top WRs come up. Maybe it's because he doesn't put up gawdy numbers due to the run-first offense (which seems to be changing a bit) , or because Metcalf is stealing a lot of the attention, but IMO he still doesn't get his just due.
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Manster
Footballguy
It's really splitting hairs at this point I think. DK is only in his second season after a really good rookie campaign. He got the better of Gilmore (DPOY).....I'd say the fact that Gilmore was on him in first place, shows you how opposing teams view him.....Lockett has been fantastic as well. He's the polished vet, and he has years of experience with Russ.....the article says Lockett makes it all go. I say Russ makes it all go.
In PPR I'd be all over Lockett. In more TD heavy formats its DK. Long-term, DK's trajectory is dominant, #1 WR. How can it not be?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not that it makes a major difference in the larger point but I believe they mentioned in the broadcast that Gilmore typically covers the larger, more prototypical WRs and not the small shifty guys. For instance he did not cover Tyreek Hill in the 2019 AFC Championship game against the Chiefs.
If you know the Pats then you know that usually makes him the #2. They tend to put Gilmore on the #2 and double the #1/offer safety help on the #1
Manster
Footballguy
Didn't know that......he is the reigning DPOY though.....so no matter what, DK was impressive
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This guy is a potential league winner and his value likely still hasn't caught up to how good he actually is. He was WR3 before the injury last year and is right back on that pace again this year.
Lockett is the most efficient WR in the NFL in the last decade and he not only leads most efficiency categories, he DOMINATES them. For instance his yards per target is a full two yards ahead of the next closest guy some years.
All he's been missing was volume and now he's getting that, and the efficiency hasn't suffered alongside it. He is the most underrated NFL skill position player in the league and one of the most underrated fantasy players as well.
Lockett is the most efficient WR in the NFL in the last decade and he not only leads most efficiency categories, he DOMINATES them. For instance his yards per target is a full two yards ahead of the next closest guy some years.
All he's been missing was volume and now he's getting that, and the efficiency hasn't suffered alongside it. He is the most underrated NFL skill position player in the league and one of the most underrated fantasy players as well.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was just looking at this and in total points through week 1-6 Tyler Lockett was WR 16. After week 7 now he is WR 2.
He finished WR 13 last year and WR 16 the year before. I wonder if he ends up finishing closer to WR 16 or WR 2 by the end of the year.
He finished WR 13 last year and WR 16 the year before. I wonder if he ends up finishing closer to WR 16 or WR 2 by the end of the year.
The Frankman
Footballguy
As long as Russ is allwed to cook, there's enough passing to have Metcalf AND Locket be Top 12 WRs IMHO. The passing tree just needs to stay really narrow (no chucking 20+ targets a game to RBs/TEs/other WRs) if we assume both see 8+ targets a game ROS. Likely? ehhh... but a theory.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I suppose the easiest answer to my question would be that Lockett continues to be what he has been in most recent seasons. You have this huge outlier game for him and that won't happen every week.
If I take the 6 game sample for Lockett this season its 9.7 targets 7.5 receptions 77.7% catch rate 9.3 yards per target its not that different than what his career numbers have been except for the targets which have been 4.9 targets per game instead of 9.7
As far as I can see the efficiency is sustainable with twice the volume here.
If he maintains this pace and doesn't miss games he could end up with 155 targets 120 receptions 1442 yards 18 TD
That likely isn't going to happen, especially the TDs but I could see him end up with 130 or so targets and over 100 receptions pretty easily.
If I take the 6 game sample for Lockett this season its 9.7 targets 7.5 receptions 77.7% catch rate 9.3 yards per target its not that different than what his career numbers have been except for the targets which have been 4.9 targets per game instead of 9.7
As far as I can see the efficiency is sustainable with twice the volume here.
If he maintains this pace and doesn't miss games he could end up with 155 targets 120 receptions 1442 yards 18 TD
That likely isn't going to happen, especially the TDs but I could see him end up with 130 or so targets and over 100 receptions pretty easily.
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
plays the Cardinals again wk 11.....
The Frankman
Footballguy
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He played the whole game and seemed fine, but if he doesn’t get in a limited practice tomorrow I’ll be worried.
https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1328457553211174912?s=21
https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1328457553211174912?s=21
