WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (5 Viewers)

[Moonshine]

I’ve had Green 3 straight years & while I love the dude, and love his game, I hate his OL & QB, Dalton seems to be regressing. Last year was pretty hard to watch. I don’t see the Bengals as being much improved from then. I know it’s just preseason, but Mixon looks like hot garbage. A few weeks back I was sayin he could have a top 5 season. After seeing his preseason work, I’m wondering if any Bengal is worth taking in the 1-2 rounds. 

Green should be a solid lower tier WR1, but I’ve got him below all the guys I listed. Call him tier 4. 

Thomas as well. He’s been in decline 3 straight years, and the Broncos seem like they want to pound the rock more. - I see Thomas as an upside voice-back candidate but nowhere near as reliable as alll the dudes I listed + AJ. I might even put Diggs ahead of Thomas if I knew Diggs would play 16. Certainly the potential to return to form, but that’s no lock. Which is probably why his ADP is where it is. 

The only difference with Evans the last 4 seasons are his TDs. I know 12, 4, 12, 3 are huge swings, but his receptions & yardage is pretty similar year to year and he has age on his side.  The only reason I’ve got Evans behind Adams is Winston’s suspension. But fitzmagic might be able to get him the rock - we’ll see. 

So for me at least Thomas & Green are tick below. I may be underrating both - I concede they both have ceilings good enough to make me regret this ranking in redraft.  By big picture I think they have enough red flags to drop them down a tick. 

I think he meant Michael Thomas of the Saints, just a heads up. Great analysis otherwise!

 

[DarkKnightsGuru]

Nah Thomas is definitely ahead of Hill come on now ..Easy Money his first 2 years most catches of any wr his first 2 years let's not go nuts now Hill is top 10 with potential to be to 8 or 7 .... Odel , Ab,Thomas ,Julio and Adams u have to draft ahead of him ..

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think he meant Michael Thomas of the Saints, just a heads up. Great analysis otherwise!

Aha! 

In that case I agree 100%!  I knew I was forgetting someone. I absolutely have Michael Thomas ahead of Adams.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Nah Thomas is definitely ahead of Hill come on now ..Easy Money his first 2 years most catches of any wr his first 2 years let's not go nuts now Hill is top 10 with potential to be to 8 or 7 .... Odel , Ab,Thomas ,Julio and Adams u have to draft ahead of him ..

Demarius, no.

Michael, yes. 

I was responding from my farmers market booth & I get sleepy since I’m up at 4:45 AM.  

 

[SameSongNDance]

The only difference with Evans the last 4 seasons are his TDs. I know 12, 4, 12, 3 are huge swings, but his receptions & yardage is pretty similar year to year and he has age on his side. The only reason I’ve got Evans behind Adams is Winston’s suspension. But fitzmagic might be able to get him the rock - we’ll see.

The problem with Evans (and possibly Winston) is that he's super inefficient (catch percentage is consistently ####) and he needs volume to reach his upside. I think there will be TD regression to the mean for him but I don't think the volume will be there at all. I personally have it Green > Thomas > Hill > Evans. But Evans is my WR17 so I really don't like him this year. 

 

[Soulfly3]

 But Evans is my WR17 so I really don't like him this year. 

That's just ignorant.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

The problem with Evans (and possibly Winston) is that he's super inefficient (catch percentage is consistently ####) and he needs volume to reach his upside. I think there will be TD regression to the mean for him but I don't think the volume will be there at all. I personally have it Green > Thomas > Hill > Evans. But Evans is my WR17 so I really don't like him this year. 

17? sheesh

 

[SoBeDad]

The problem with Evans (and possibly Winston) is that he's super inefficient (catch percentage is consistently ####) and he needs volume to reach his upside. I think there will be TD regression to the mean for him but I don't think the volume will be there at all. I personally have it Green > Thomas > Hill > Evans. But Evans is my WR17 so I really don't like him this year. 

Good points. But the offense should be improved which may also lead to more overall TDs. On the other hand, NO and CAR will be 4 tough defensive match-ups. 

 

[SameSongNDance]

That's just ignorant.

Evans was the WR20 on a ppg basis last year. He's had one 100+ yard game since week 12 of 2016. He actually went cold towards the end of 2016 (I remember it all too well) and he really hasn't done much since. And since his cold streak begun, TB has only added more weapons (DJax, Howard, Godwin) that leech off of his target share. He's one of the least efficient fantasy players of the last decade. To return high-end WR1 numbers, he needs ~180 targets because he can't catch. It's really not even remotely crazy to be honest. 

 

[Soulfly3]

it is a slanderous attack having evans ranked at 17

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The problem with Evans (and possibly Winston) is that he's super inefficient (catch percentage is consistently ####) and he needs volume to reach his upside. I think there will be TD regression to the mean for him but I don't think the volume will be there at all. I personally have it Green > Thomas > Hill > Evans. But Evans is my WR17 so I really don't like him this year. 

Respect for opinions all around, but I don’t see him falling out of the top 10. I even think he could be a top 5 from when Winston comes back forward.

basically you’re putting him on your DND list which I think is a little short-sighted. But we all have those players we have a gut feeling about. 

 

[abbottjamesr]

I have Evans ranked WR16 by my projections, one spot behind Gordon.  But I would much rather have Gordon over Evans and it feels like I want Gordon much more than one spot more, if that makes sense.

 

[SoBeDad]

Evans was the WR20 on a ppg basis last year. He's had one 100+ yard game since week 12 of 2016. He actually went cold towards the end of 2016 (I remember it all too well) and he really hasn't done much since. And since his cold streak begun, TB has only added more weapons (DJax, Howard, Godwin) that leech off of his target share. He's one of the least efficient fantasy players of the last decade. To return high-end WR1 numbers, he needs ~180 targets because he can't catch. It's really not even remotely crazy to be honest. 

Scary bad numbers for Evans. I think the QBs are partly to blame, by having forced him the ball too much even when covered. But I wish I had seen this 12 hours ago.

 

[Al O'Pecia]

Evans was the WR20 on a ppg basis last year. He's had one 100+ yard game since week 12 of 2016. He actually went cold towards the end of 2016 (I remember it all too well) and he really hasn't done much since. And since his cold streak begun, TB has only added more weapons (DJax, Howard, Godwin) that leech off of his target share. He's one of the least efficient fantasy players of the last decade. To return high-end WR1 numbers, he needs ~180 targets because he can't catch. It's really not even remotely crazy to be honest. 

A few days ago on a Rotoviz podcast fantasy analyst Matt Kelley made your exact point about Mike Evans.  In relation to how highly people think of Mike Evans he called Evans the most fake wide receiver of the past decade, perhaps ever.

His Evans rant/analysis starts at the 29:05 mark of the podcast:

http://rotoviz.com/2018/08/matt-kelley-believes-chris-godwin-is-better-than-mike-evans-rotoviz-radio/

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Scary bad numbers for Evans. I think the QBs are partly to blame, by having forced him the ball too much even when covered. But I wish I had seen this 12 hours ago.

Yeah I didn't want to derail the Hill thread but I want no part of Evans this year and for the foreseeable future 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A few days ago on a Rotoviz podcast fantasy analyst Matt Kelley made your exact point about Mike Evans.  In relation to how highly people think of Mike Evans he called Evans the most fake wide receiver of the past decade, perhaps ever.

His Evans rant/analysis starts at the 29:05 mark of the podcast:

http://rotoviz.com/2018/08/matt-kelley-believes-chris-godwin-is-better-than-mike-evans-rotoviz-radio/

Look; experts love to have the “hot take” because it gets people talking about them & what they said. Steven A Smith has made an entire career out of spouting hot takes. Doesn’t mean he’s right about anything.

as they say though, even a blind dog finds a bone once in a while - a broken clock is right 2x a day.  And when one hot take makes them look psychic they’ll harp it for days. 

But in this case I’m not at all in agreement. “Fakest” WR ever? 

A player that over 4 seasons has done the following...

games 

• 15

• 15

• 16

• 15

from a big, physical WR, I expect bumps & bruises, so averaging 15.25 GPY is solid. 

receptions:

• 68

• 74

• 96

• 71 

yards:

• 1051

• 1206

• 1321

• 1001

Among all WRs in NFL history, only Randy Moss had 4x 1000+ yd seasons before age 25. 

and up until last season’s train wreck, Evans was trending upwards for 3 straight.!

TDs: 

• 12

• 3

• 12

• 5

thats is a player who’s averaged a fantastic 77 rec, 1,144 ReYd & 8 TDs

Anyone calling that a “fake” WR is talking out of their rear. No offense for sharing the link/post, but come on.

i had Evans his first and 3rd year, and I also had him last year. While he disappointed last year he was also only targeted 9 times inside the 9, and I doubt he’ll go 1/9 again. 

I project him somewhere close to his average - ~77 rec, 1100 yds, 7-8 TDs. I’m happy to have him at the 2.12/3.01 spot. 

Articles like this is why his ADP is there. That & Winston’s suspension. 

Hey; maybe I’m wrong about this coming season - but a young player with his ability and who’s shown me solid production would seem to lend credibility to the kid’s talent. I’m always willing to bet on talent. 

But even if he disappoints with a 5th 1000+ season for lack of double digit TDs, it doesn’t mean he’s fake. It’s ok to not like Mike Evans without that kind of disrespect. 

 

[Al O'Pecia]

It’s ok to not like Mike Evans without that kind of disrespect. 

Disrespect and hyperbole are what Matt Kelley does.  It's part of his schtick, and part of the reason why many people can't stand him.  Hell, there are many times that I can't stand him.

Your counter-argument citing Evans' past production was the exact argument Kelley's counterpart on that linked podcast made.  That co-host referenced your stat about 4 straight seasons of 1,000+ yards to start a career noting that the only three players in NFL history to do that are Randy Moss, AJ Green, and Mike Evans (AJ Green must have been over 25 years old by his fourth season.)  Kelley contends Evans' production was a result of exceptionally high volume which he will no longer see, and not exceptional talent.  We'll see.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Evans was the WR20 on a ppg basis last year. He's had one 100+ yard game since week 12 of 2016. He actually went cold towards the end of 2016 (I remember it all too well) and he really hasn't done much since. And since his cold streak begun, 

Evans played injured the second half of last year.  I watched most of the games. 

Also - the QB play on the Bucs last year was not good.  It is hard to get open when a QB stares you down. He was getting thrown to while double covered often.  Personally, I saw him take more violent hits and still catch the ball last season than I have seen any receiver I can remember take in one single season.  He played mostly on guts last year. 

A couple years ago Evans was going as a top WR. I think he his ceiling is the sky when he is healthy. He is a beast.  And this year he gets Fitzmagic to start. He is being drafted at a discount.      

 

[JackReacher]

Look; experts love to have the “hot take” because it gets people talking about them & what they said. Steven A Smith has made an entire career out of spouting hot takes. Doesn’t mean he’s right about anything.

as they say though, even a blind dog finds a bone once in a while - a broken clock is right 2x a day.  And when one hot take makes them look psychic they’ll harp it for days. 

But in this case I’m not at all in agreement. “Fakest” WR ever? 

A player that over 4 seasons has done the following...

games 

• 15

• 15

• 16

• 15

from a big, physical WR, I expect bumps & bruises, so averaging 15.25 GPY is solid. 

receptions:

• 68

• 74

• 96

• 71 

yards:

• 1051

• 1206

• 1321

• 1001

Among all WRs in NFL history, only Randy Moss had 4x 1000+ yd seasons before age 25. 

and up until last season’s train wreck, Evans was trending upwards for 3 straight.!

TDs: 

• 12

• 3

• 12

• 5

thats is a player who’s averaged a fantastic 77 rec, 1,144 ReYd & 8 TDs

Anyone calling that a “fake” WR is talking out of their rear. No offense for sharing the link/post, but come on.

i had Evans his first and 3rd year, and I also had him last year. While he disappointed last year he was also only targeted 9 times inside the 9, and I doubt he’ll go 1/9 again. 

I project him somewhere close to his average - ~77 rec, 1100 yds, 7-8 TDs. I’m happy to have him at the 2.12/3.01 spot. 

Articles like this is why his ADP is there. That & Winston’s suspension. 

Hey; maybe I’m wrong about this coming season - but a young player with his ability and who’s shown me solid production would seem to lend credibility to the kid’s talent. I’m always willing to bet on talent. 

But even if he disappoints with a 5th 1000+ season for lack of double digit TDs, it doesn’t mean he’s fake. It’s ok to not like Mike Evans without that kind of disrespect. 

Excellent post HSG. I own Evans nowhere but this makes case for a punt in redraft this year.

 

[Snorkelson]

I took tyreek over obj last night. League gives big bonuses for big play tds and I decided to put my money where my mouth is. Heavily invested in reek at this point.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I was shocked to get Hill in the 4th round of my 10 team draft last night. Got Antonio in the 1st, Jordan Howard in the 2nd, Baldwin in the 3rd (actually almost took Hill). I couldn't hit the draft button fast enough when Fitz, Cooper and Juju went at wr ahead of me leaving me Hill.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I took tyreek over obj last night. League gives big bonuses for big play tds and I decided to put my money where my mouth is. Heavily invested in reek at this point.

IMO you’ll regret this. I’m an Eli Manning hater and even I would take ODB over any receiver not named AB or Nuk. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Evans played injured the second half of last year.  I watched most of the games. 

Also - the QB play on the Bucs last year was not good.  It is hard to get open when a QB stares you down. He was getting thrown to while double covered often.  Personally, I saw him take more violent hits and still catch the ball last season than I have seen any receiver I can remember take in one single season.  He played mostly on guts last year. 

A couple years ago Evans was going as a top WR. I think he his ceiling is the sky when he is healthy. He is a beast.  And this year he gets Fitzmagic to start. He is being drafted at a discount.      

Perfectly stated.

one down year where he still went 1000+, and I saw a lot of those contested catches. 

Evans is a beast - and thanks to recency bias, Winston’s suspension & podcasters like that dude, some of us are going to get a nice discount this year. 

 

[pantherclub]

Not a huge Hill fan at the time, but was at the 3-4 turn and he was still there so I grabbed a share as my WR2. That was an early August draft. Seems he has move up draft boards. If Hill gets targeted like this all year, he should be a top 5 WR. 

He went 2.11 last night in my big $ league.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He went 2.11 last night in my big $ league.  

I took him 3.01, but I understand the 2.11 if the draft trended WR-heavy. At that point I’m guessing there were a lot of RBs and fewer elite WRs on the board? With just 2 picks between, those are sometimes very easy choices. 

Hard to judge from the turn, too - either bookend could reach for a guy as much as 22 picks. While that sounds ridiculous, consider that there’s a HUGE list of players that won’t make it back. My worst draft ever was the 1st time I ever drafted from 1.12 about 12 years ago. I kept thinking, “well I can’t take so-and-so here it’s a full round too early!” 

22 picks later, here’s me:

Almost every round.  

 

[Interseptopus]

I took him 3.01, but I understand the 2.11 if the draft trended WR-heavy. At that point I’m guessing there were a lot of RBs and fewer elite WRs on the board? With just 2 picks between, those are sometimes very easy choices. 

Hard to judge from the turn, too - either bookend could reach for a guy as much as 22 picks. While that sounds ridiculous, consider that there’s a HUGE list of players that won’t make it back. My worst draft ever was the 1st time I ever drafted from 1.12 about 12 years ago. I kept thinking, “well I can’t take so-and-so here it’s a full round too early!” 

22 picks later, here’s me:

Almost every round.  

the last 4 years in my keeper league I drafted 12th 3 times, 10th once. I share this frustration. last year was a classic example of me taking who I was supposed to take based on ADP versus who I wanted to take (Hunt for example couldn't take 2.3 because it was "too early"), and it completely fell apart and resulted in me having an awful year. 

I draft in the 4 spot this year so Hill is potentially on my radar at 2.8. but I'm not sure if I want to grab a rb. of course it all depends who falls! 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

the last 4 years in my keeper league I drafted 12th 3 times, 10th once. I share this frustration. last year was a classic example of me taking who I was supposed to take based on ADP versus who I wanted to take (Hunt for example couldn't take 2.3 because it was "too early"), and it completely fell apart and resulted in me having an awful year. 

I draft in the 4 spot this year so Hill is potentially on my radar at 2.8. but I'm not sure if I want to grab a rb. of course it all depends who falls! 

Flexibility is key. 

The goal of every team is to score the most points every week.

If you get the player you rank higher who you think will help you to that goal, it’s not a reach. 

And #### anyone who gives you grief for any pick. I’d rather get the guy I want and be wrong than see the guy I want help someone else win for fear of being judged for the pick. What’s ADP anyway, except a rough suggestion of who the consensus would take? 

I remind everyone that “the population” has a lot of less-than-savvy people it.  The shark move is to be an independent thinker and if you gotta reach by 8 picks, then reach. 

 

[Widbil83]

IMO you’ll regret this. I’m an Eli Manning hater and even I would take ODB over any receiver not named AB or Nuk. 

He could, but I would do the same thing.  Beckham's injury history and general craziness is baked into that decision as well.  

 

[Milkman]

I'm taking Tyreek ahead of ODB too. 

 

[Elevencents]

Took him as third pick in the second over Adams, Evans and Green. Have no regrets. We also get big play bonuses so heave away young man!

 

[dcgangstas]

I lucked out and got Tyreek at 3.05 in my 12-team draft, after I got Devante Adams at 2.08.    Very happy with that tandem. 

 

[Milkman]

I lucked out and got Tyreek at 3.05 in my 12-team draft, after I got Devante Adams at 2.08.    Very happy with that tandem. 

Yeah that's ideal. Who was your 1st round pick?

 

[dcgangstas]

Yeah that's ideal. Who was your 1st round pick?

I went with Alvin Kamara at 1.05.    I didn't want Antonio Brown at 1.05 because I knew that the level of RBs would dip quickly and I didn't want to have Shady or Jordan Howard as my number 1 RB.   I didn't opt for Barkley since I was targeting Royce Freeman at 4.08 (and got him!) and did not want to start 2 rookies.  I took Ingram later for insurance protection.   

 

[Milkman]

I went with Alvin Kamara at 1.05.    I didn't want Antonio Brown at 1.05 because I knew that the level of RBs would dip quickly and I didn't want to have Shady or Jordan Howard as my number 1 RB.   I didn't opt for Barkley since I was targeting Royce Freeman at 4.08 (and got him!) and did not want to start 2 rookies.  I took Ingram later for insurance protection.   

Looks good. I would have taken Fournette but don't hate your pick. 

 

[jm192]

Took him as third pick in the second over Adams, Evans and Green. Have no regrets. We also get big play bonuses so heave away young man!

I love Hill.  Adams shouldn't be there in the 3rd.  I'll take him every time.  I can see Hill over Green/Evans.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Forget for a second who you think is better. I have both hill and evans and can keep one. Who is more likely to be there later in the draft? I like both and would like to have both.

 

[Elevencents]

Forget for a second who you think is better. I have both hill and evans and can keep one. Who is more likely to be there later in the draft? I like both and would like to have both.

Completely dependent on your draft. I think they are pretty comparable in where they come off the board. I would keep the one you like the most realizing you may not get the other. I would go Hill. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ended up drafting 11th. Had none chance at Hill as Keenan Allen was there for me. Turn went Julio/Thomas. I was hoping for Thomas, but got Allen.

Hill went 2.08, FWIW. His big preseason opened a lot of eyes - especially the PPR community who had previously poo poo’d him for the low reception perception. 

8/88 in a half, and Sammy Watkins not doing much, I would expect a home drFting this week to have to pay an early 2nd for him. In any format. 

 

[Raback]

Ended up drafting 11th. Had none chance at Hill as Keenan Allen was there for me. Turn went Julio/Thomas. I was hoping for Thomas, but got Allen.

Hill went 2.08, FWIW. His big preseason opened a lot of eyes - especially the PPR community who had previously poo poo’d him for the low reception perception. 

8/88 in a half, and Sammy Watkins not doing much, I would expect a home drFting this week to have to pay an early 2nd for him. In any format. 

I did a home league auction last night.  A couple serious players, mostly guys who just pick up a fantasy magazine before the draft.  I got Hill for $27 in a 12 team .5 PPR league that starts 3 WRs and a flex.  Some random WR prices include Brown for $69, Julio $52, Baldwin $40, Hilton $37.  So my point being that the Hill love maybe hasn’t trickled down to all of the fantasy world just yet.  Granted it’s an auction and prices are dynamic due to that but still it was a steal.  

 

[Keith1]

Ended up drafting 11th. Had none chance at Hill as Keenan Allen was there for me. Turn went Julio/Thomas. I was hoping for Thomas, but got Allen.

Hill went 2.08, FWIW. His big preseason opened a lot of eyes - especially the PPR community who had previously poo poo’d him for the low reception perception. 

8/88 in a half, and Sammy Watkins not doing much, I would expect a home drFting this week to have to pay an early 2nd for him. In any format. 

Wow. Hill going 2.08 seems like a bit of a reach. I still think Kelce (rather than Hill) ends up being THE KC receiver to own this year. 

 

[Wonderllama]

I'm gonna be so mad if I don't get any Tyreek shares this season. It looks like he's gonna be so much fun to own. I have one more draft. If I don't get him then, I might just join another league and reach for him, lol

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Forget for a second who you think is better. I have both hill and evans and can keep one. Who is more likely to be there later in the draft? I like both and would like to have both.

Evans was going 3-7 picks ahead of Hill, but after the ridiculous targets HIll's received in preseason, that trend appears to be reversing.

Hill went 4 picks before Evans in my highly competitive local 12-man IDP draft yesterday. (but after AB, Thomas, Allen, Green, Adams) - this is a PPR league where every manager takes this game way too seriously. 

Last year people poo poo'd Hill for his lack of receptions,. This year at least half the league was pissed they missed him (the Hill pick was the 1st subject of discussion at the 1st break, too - several grousing that they "regretted taking X over him" as they "though the might make the turn". So perception of Hill as a 1-trick deep threat wonder has clearly changed. 

 

[Elevencents]

I’m so freakin excited to have him. That’s all. Oh, and we get bonuses for big plays. Gonna be fun to watch. 

 

[King of the Jungle]

I am surprised how low the FBG projections are on Hill. 

 

[Chaka]

I am surprised how low the FBG projections are on Hill. 

There are some question marks with a new QB, OC and the addition of Watkins. But I'm personally all in on Tyreek.

 

[Buckna]

Acquired him in two dynasty leagues a few months ago. People were scared of Watkins but that is looking less and less like a threat every day, he looks lost in Andy Reid's offense. Now I am getting offers left and right for Hill, but I'm not really interested unless someone knocks my socks off.

Was hoping to get him at the 2-3 turn in redraft, but after his preseason showing the other day I doubt that will happen now.

 

[Milkman]

I am surprised how low the FBG projections are on Hill. 

They've always loved Watkins and they've been wrong the entire time......

 

[coyote5]

Watkins is nothing but unfulfilled potential at this point.  Every stop he makes is the same, he doesn't produce.  Hill will be eating steak and Watkins will be getting whatever table scraps are left over.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Watkins is nothing but unfulfilled potential at this point.  Every stop he makes is the same, he doesn't produce.  Hill will be eating steak and Watkins will be getting whatever table scraps are left over.

I think Kelce with have some of that steak as well.

 

[Chaka]

They've always loved Watkins and they've been wrong the entire time......

Once upon a time they were right for about half a season.