Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
WRs decline (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter monkeysee
- Start date
As a general rule of thumb, unless he has some sort of degenerative condition (see Torry Holt and his knees), an elite WR will maintain his production up to and through any season where he is 34 or younger on opening day. After that, production generally starts declining, although sometimes WRs age gracefully (Mason, Ward, Galloway), and sometimes they do not (Harrison).
If a WR isn't elite, then the end can really come at any time. Same thing with RBs- only the elite RBs make it to 30, the mediocre RBs fall off a cliff long before they make it that far.
Remember, too, that this is just a general guideline and not a hard-and-fast rule. According to this "rule of thumb", Randy Moss as two more Randy Moss seasons left before he starts falling off... but, on the other hand, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see Randy Moss become the second WR in NFL history to still be playing at 40, because the guy is a physical freak and exactly the type of player for whom the rules might not apply.
If a WR isn't elite, then the end can really come at any time. Same thing with RBs- only the elite RBs make it to 30, the mediocre RBs fall off a cliff long before they make it that far.
Remember, too, that this is just a general guideline and not a hard-and-fast rule. According to this "rule of thumb", Randy Moss as two more Randy Moss seasons left before he starts falling off... but, on the other hand, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see Randy Moss become the second WR in NFL history to still be playing at 40, because the guy is a physical freak and exactly the type of player for whom the rules might not apply.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd agree with this. Moss is an interesting example to think about. Even though his skills will surly decline the next few years, just his size, body control and hands will allow him to still be a viable threat in the short game/red zone. I could easily see him playing to near 40 based on those attributes alone. Will he want to play that long? I've said for quite a while now that I see Moss playing as long as physically able unless he wins a SB. If he wins a SB in the next 2 or 3 years he wont come close to playing to that 40 mark IMO.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
SSOG summed it up perfectly.
Good info here. So when do you stop getting maximum trade value for guys like this in dynasty leagues? Say Reggie Wayne for example. He turns 32 this season. I think if offered a trade today, most would pay next season's first round rookie pick for him now. However after this season I am going to consider trading him off to assure maximum trade value. Too early or are there too many things that factor in to knowing if this is too early? I am new to the dynasty leagues and I know there is an art to it. So tips from experienced dynasty league GMs are much appreciated.
The "maximum trade value" ship has already sailed on Wayne. All throughout the past season, he was viewed as a consensus slam-dunk top-5 dynasty WR. I mean, there was Fitz/Johnson/Johnson... and then there was Reggie Wayne, headlining the tier behind them. I don't think that's the consensus any longer.With that said... everyone's always talking about buying low and selling high. That's a very nice idea, and in theory it helps you build a stronger team, but at the end of the day some people take it too far. They treat it like that's the entire goal of fantasy football. It's not. At the end of the day, the goal of fantasy football is to score more points than the guy you're going up against. Reggie Wayne is currently an expiring asset. He's going to be leaking value for the rest of his professional career. As long as he keeps producing, the value loss will just be a steady drip. If he gets injured or has a bad season, the value loss will be a flood. If you're looking to maximize your stock portfolio, Reggie Wayne is not the type of WR you want on your team. On the other hand, if you want to try that "scoring more points than the other guy" thing, then Wayne's a very solid investment.I think Wayne's always been a trifle overrated in fantasy football because a lot of people see his lofty rankings and think that means he's an uberstud. They see that he's just a single slot behind the "Big 3" and think that means that he can keep pace with the Big 3. He can't. He never could. Over the last 6 years, Wayne has averaged 1250/8.7. Those are very solid numbers, the kind of numbers that will keep you competitive against any team in the league in any game... but those aren't the type of numbers that will single-handedly win you a league. Despite what some people think, Reggie Wayne is not now and never was a "high ceiling" WR. I always refer to him as a 1200/10 guy. That's not an insult- consistent 1200/10 guys are almost as rare as the 100/1500 beasts like Fitz and AJ. Reggie Wayne has always justified his high rankings because he has one of the highest floors on the planet, not because his ceiling is off the charts.Anyway, there are certain types of players that you shouldn't be looking to trade. You shouldn't be looking to get rid of top-10 dynasty players, because those are the guys that championship squads are built around. People rarely win championships by having solid players at every position- they win by having a few spectacular players at a few positions. If your team is competitive, then the correct time to trade Reggie Wayne is either (A) never, (B) when your team is no longer competitive, or © when you can make your team more competitive by letting Wayne go. If you can get elite value in return for Wayne- a top 5, maybe top 10 dynasty receiver- then move him. Otherwise, hold on to him and let him keep getting you those 1200/10 stat lines that keep you competing year-in and year-out. Since Wayne is such a consistent cog, you can just slot him in your starting lineup for the next 3 years, and you can then spend those 3 years trolling the draft and the waiver wire looking for his potential replacement. Wayne gives you the advantage of time- with enough time and enough darts, eventually you'll find another stud WR who can take over just as Wayne falls off and keep you competing for titles.But it's late and I think I'm rambling.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
good stuff, but I disagree with part of it based on league scoring systems..mine is a fairly straightforward, typical scoring system..my league scores WR's as:1 pt per rec1 pt per 25 yards rec3 pt tds, can go up to 6 pts total,depending on distance of TD rec. ( 50+ yard TD = 6pts, while a 6 yard TD = 4pts)3 yr avg: Reg Wayne is 5th, behind Fitz, Moss, Welker, Marshall.last season:Reg Wayne ranked 4th among WR's, behind only AJ, Welker, Moss...the numbers don't lie,the guy is a stud WR in nearly any scoring format..While I realize that AJ is a fantasy scoring machine and I know he's more valuable than Wayne , he's also somewhat injury prone, and TD-challenged..you keep Wayne ( at all costs) and ride him till the wheels fall off the cart..
Last edited by a moderator:
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
AJ has played 16 games in 5 out of 7 seasons. He has played in all 16 games the past two straight seasons. He is not injury prone.I presume you are comparing AJ's TD challenged status with Wayne... AJ has had 9, 9, and 8 TDs in the last three years since Schaub has come on board, and the 8 TD year was in only 9 games. Total of 26 TDs in 41 games.Wayne has scored 10, 6, 10 TDs in the last three years. The same number of TDs in 7 more games played. I agree wholeheartedly that you should ride Wayne until the wheels fall off, because too many dynasty owners treat 30+ year old WRs like 30+ year old RBs. There just isn't any real comparison, the WRs stay good longer, in most cases.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
RB's hit the wall at 30? 
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
30+Many do, some don't. My comment was regarding dynasty trade value, though. Very few dynasty owners are willing to pay much for 30+ year old RBs, and too many think the same way about 30+ year old WRs.RB's hit the wall at 30?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
The age keeps getting younger and younger as people try to jump the gun. Right now you have a hard time getting full value in a dynasty for any RB over the age of 26 and WRs who are over 29.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
The whole 30 year wall thing is becoming more and more of a myth. It hasn't moved back to 35 or 40, but it's more like 31 and even 32 thanks to medical science and sports therapy. Guys take care of themselves much better than they used to. They work 365 days a year rather than just during the season and mini camps. And true, in terms of dynasty, guys don't often trade for guys that are 28 or older at RB but that's got a lot to do with the nature of dynasty leagues where people always worry about the future and not about the now. Someone has to win this year. Guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, Emmit Smith, Ricky Williams all helped teams after the age of 30. With that line in SD you might see that happen this year with LT. As for WR's, it's later but that line is even more blurry. Look at injury history. Look at changes in scheme. Look at new personnel on the team, particularly young highly drafted WR's. All of these things can cut make that number earlier for any given player. But don't write a line in the sand and apply it to all WR's or players at any position.Lott said:30+Many do, some don't. My comment was regarding dynasty trade value, though. Very few dynasty owners are willing to pay much for 30+ year old RBs, and too many think the same way about 30+ year old WRs.TheFanatic said:RB's hit the wall at 30?
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I agree wholeheartedly with this.It is foolish to apply a generalized rule to individual situations. Every player needs to be evaluated individually. A 33 year old Randy Moss is not a 33 year old Torry Holt.But if you trade for an "older" guy, know that you won't likely receive value for him if you want to trade him because of these same generalizations.The whole 30 year wall thing is becoming more and more of a myth. It hasn't moved back to 35 or 40, but it's more like 31 and even 32 thanks to medical science and sports therapy. Guys take care of themselves much better than they used to. They work 365 days a year rather than just during the season and mini camps. And true, in terms of dynasty, guys don't often trade for guys that are 28 or older at RB but that's got a lot to do with the nature of dynasty leagues where people always worry about the future and not about the now. Someone has to win this year. Guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, Emmit Smith, Ricky Williams all helped teams after the age of 30. With that line in SD you might see that happen this year with LT. As for WR's, it's later but that line is even more blurry. Look at injury history. Look at changes in scheme. Look at new personnel on the team, particularly young highly drafted WR's. All of these things can cut make that number earlier for any given player. But don't write a line in the sand and apply it to all WR's or players at any position.Lott said:30+Many do, some don't. My comment was regarding dynasty trade value, though. Very few dynasty owners are willing to pay much for 30+ year old RBs, and too many think the same way about 30+ year old WRs.TheFanatic said:RB's hit the wall at 30?
Last edited by a moderator:
TheFanatic
Footballguy
That's why not many people wind up trading for these guys. Guy offers a bag of balls for Thomas Jones last year and the owner thinks, "he's worth more on my team than dumping the guy for nothing."I agree wholeheartedly with this.It is foolish to apply a generalized rule to individual situations. Every player needs to be evaluated individually. A 33 year old Randy Moss is not a 33 year old Torry Holt.The whole 30 year wall thing is becoming more and more of a myth. It hasn't moved back to 35 or 40, but it's more like 31 and even 32 thanks to medical science and sports therapy. Guys take care of themselves much better than they used to. They work 365 days a year rather than just during the season and mini camps. And true, in terms of dynasty, guys don't often trade for guys that are 28 or older at RB but that's got a lot to do with the nature of dynasty leagues where people always worry about the future and not about the now. Someone has to win this year. Guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, Emmit Smith, Ricky Williams all helped teams after the age of 30. With that line in SD you might see that happen this year with LT.Lott said:30+Many do, some don't.TheFanatic said:RB's hit the wall at 30?
My comment was regarding dynasty trade value, though. Very few dynasty owners are willing to pay much for 30+ year old RBs, and too many think the same way about 30+ year old WRs.
As for WR's, it's later but that line is even more blurry. Look at injury history. Look at changes in scheme. Look at new personnel on the team, particularly young highly drafted WR's. All of these things can cut make that number earlier for any given player. But don't write a line in the sand and apply it to all WR's or players at any position.
But if you trade for an "older" guy, know that you won't likely receive value for him if you want to trade him because of these same generalizations.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
I think this is an interesting point. The diminishing skills due to age phenomenon probably gets more credit for production decline than it deserves, at least in terms of the actual extent the physical decline affects performance on the field.Look at Holt, Ward, TO and Housh. All four are on the decline physically. Most people would say that Ward has declined least and Holt has declined the most. I think many fantasy owners were disappointed with TO, Housh and Holt last year. Ward was still a vaue play.The whole 30 year wall thing is becoming more and more of a myth. It hasn't moved back to 35 or 40, but it's more like 31 and even 32 thanks to medical science and sports therapy. Guys take care of themselves much better than they used to. They work 365 days a year rather than just during the season and mini camps. And true, in terms of dynasty, guys don't often trade for guys that are 28 or older at RB but that's got a lot to do with the nature of dynasty leagues where people always worry about the future and not about the now. Someone has to win this year. Guys like Tiki Barber, Thomas Jones, Emmit Smith, Ricky Williams all helped teams after the age of 30. With that line in SD you might see that happen this year with LT.Lott said:30+Many do, some don't.TheFanatic said:RB's hit the wall at 30?
My comment was regarding dynasty trade value, though. Very few dynasty owners are willing to pay much for 30+ year old RBs, and too many think the same way about 30+ year old WRs.
As for WR's, it's later but that line is even more blurry. Look at injury history. Look at changes in scheme. Look at new personnel on the team, particularly young highly drafted WR's. All of these things can cut make that number earlier for any given player. But don't write a line in the sand and apply it to all WR's or players at any position.
The difference between Ward and the others is scheme. Ward had the benefit of staying in the same scheme while the other three switched to new teams. Even if the system and nomenclature are similar, there is still a learning curve in terms of timing and anticipation with the new cast of characters. And with the physical decline, they can't overcome that curve with pure athleticism like they once could.
The difference between TO, Housh and Holt is injury. I doubt Holt's skills are in any steeper a decline than Housh's or TO's are, but his wheels are flat.
When you come up with a general rule that ignores injury and scheme change, you are probably going to undervalue guys like Ward.
I'd like to see a data run that factors in team change and games missed in previous season to see if a cleaner line emerges showing at what age WR's start to crash.
I think it depends on the player.
if the player is committed to an offseason workout routine to stay in top shape, it is not unrealistic to see him perform to 34 or 35. in extrordinary cases maybe even 36 or 37, but that is the exception and NOT the rule.
if the player is a bit lazy and does not work out in the offseason as much as he should, then I'd expect a decline around 31 or 32.
This is one of those cases where it pays to do your research because if you find that a player has come into camp in the best shape of his life, it may be worth your while to bet on one more good year for a player.
if the player is committed to an offseason workout routine to stay in top shape, it is not unrealistic to see him perform to 34 or 35. in extrordinary cases maybe even 36 or 37, but that is the exception and NOT the rule.
if the player is a bit lazy and does not work out in the offseason as much as he should, then I'd expect a decline around 31 or 32.
This is one of those cases where it pays to do your research because if you find that a player has come into camp in the best shape of his life, it may be worth your while to bet on one more good year for a player.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I would love some opinions on AJ's sell high point, as he seems to be the next elite WR soon to hit the 30 mark.
jurb26
Footballguy
I'd guess that the high point to sell AJ would be right now. He's 28 and ranked 1 or 2 in pretty much any dynasty rankings you will see (some have him 1, others have Fitz). Even though WRs don't hit the wall at 30 like RBs do, I think people in general see less value in guys who are actually in their 30s. There is a certain shimmer to guys who are still in their 20s when it comes to trade value. I'm not saying I agree with it. Just that it seems to be the popular way of thinking from my experience.
It's not now. You're in the middle of his peak production. Ride it to as many championship banners as you can. Barring injury, I think you don't even think about selling him (absent absurd offer) until he's 30. And even then, he probably has 3-4 elite years left.
If I owned AJ, the point where I'd be looking to sell for maximum value would be "never". Alternately, I might look to move him "when you pry him out of my cold, dead fingers". Andre Johnson is exactly the kind of player that people overthink. They get too wrapped up in "selling high and buying low" that they forget that their fantasy team is not a stock portfolio. The goal of fantasy football is scoring points. The time to sell Andre Johnson is when you can get a package that will increase the number of points your team scores. And, might I say... good luck with that. It's kind of hard to improve your scoring by trading AWAY a guy coming off of back-to-back 200 point seasons."Selling high and buying low" is a decent fantasy strategy. "Scoring high and selling low" is a better one.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I agree. Barring injury he prolly has atleast 5 very good seasons left in him. How many dynasty leagues are still together after 5 years plus?
Similar threads
