WRs in 2010 from the 2009 class and their outlook this year (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

There were a lot of WRs that saw time last year as rookies and figure to factor into the equation this season. Sometimes we dismiss players based on year end totals. Some great posters in here have emphasized that what guys do on a weekly basis when they actually get on the field is much more important than the year end totals. I think that is sound logic and I am going to incorporate some of that into this.

There were other guys beyond Michael Crabtree last season. I look very strongly at what a rookie does in the 2nd half of their rookie season because I feel almost all of them no matter where they are drafted take awhile to get their bearings straight. It’s a lot to ask a rookie to catch a ball streaking across the middle and try and not get beheaded while doing so…you’d be scared too. Some of these guys are going to nail down starting jobs and you can find many of them well past the middle rounds.

Michael Crabtree: His very 1st game out of the box after he missed all of training camp and almost half the season…this guy posts double digits his 1st game out. In fact he scored 6 double digit games in PPR leagues. 86 targets in 10 games…if Crabtree stays healthy there is no reason he can’t go over 80/1,100/6TDs this year. He should be a guy folks are looking at as a WR2 after the usual names come off the board. Crabtree could land in the top20 if things fall right for him.

Percy Harvin: Another 1st rounder from a year ago and he looks to me still like a very hit or miss player. It is hard to tell what Favre is doing to push this guy’s stats. But as long as Favre comes back this year there is no reason to think Harvin can’t build on a solid rookie campaign. Maybe the reason the Vikes let Chester go is they see more opps for Harvin in the short passing game. I could see Harvin in a Bush type role for the Vikes. He had 90+ targets last year and did a nice job of catching the ball. He had almost 1,000 toal yds, 60 receptions and 6 TDs last year. Some folks will want to push his TD totals up, I would leave those alone. But he might build on the yds form last year and I could see him getting around 75 balls plus carries too. Someone always likes this guy though a little more than I do, what I’m saying is you have to pay a price for him and I usually feel I can find similar an round or two later at least.

Hakeem Nicks: Really love what I saw a year ago. He looks like the goods to me and a top5 landing in the next few years is well within this guy’s reach. I’m not sure any rookie WR impressed me more than Hicks. Nicks had 47/790/6Td…and he had 9 double digit points games for PPR leagues. It will not shock me if this year he posts something in the 80/1200/8+Td range, he’s that good and I see possible elite status. I can see Fitz/Calvin/Nicks…I might be a little off my meds today but seriously this guy is electric and I love the offense and situation he is in right now. He has talent around him at WR so he can exploit the (dirty word) out of some of these DBs. I already see him being drafted in the early 5th, some might think that’s high but I see him as a WR1 and am prepared to pay for it wherever I have to.

Jeremy Maclin: Another 1st rounder in 2009, that is shaping up to be one of the most impressive WR classes in a very very long time. Maclin had 8 games of double digits, had a nice ypc woth over 750 yds on 55 receptions. Macling has a decent chance to hit 70+ this year. Kolb will be working with him, and he has quite a talent across from him. I do not see Maclin in the same league with nicks, added to that he is a WR2 and will probably not pass Jackson as the WR1 any time soon. I like what Maclin brings to the table but I see him as more of a 800-950 yds type of WR which there are lots and lots of. Maybe he can notch 1,000 yds but I feel there is a limit for him with DeSean on the other side and a 1st year starter in Kolb.

Those 4 WRs you probably know a lot about or know enough about their situation to keep them on your radar rather high. But there are lots of others sprinkled about form last year’s draft and I still feel you can find some really nice guys with upside here and you don’t have to burn early picks, many of them you can find rather late.

Brian Hartline: 4th round pick for Miami last year. Hartline is actually 6”2’ and is around 190 lbs. Over the last 7 weeks of the 2009 season Hartline was the #36 ranked WR in FF. In a 12 team league this guy was a WR3, stronger WR4. And that was with a 1st year starter in Chad Henne, and a very conservative offense. The fact is Miami DID NOT bring anyone in to compete. They didn’t get in on the Boldin sweepstakes, seem to want to let Marshall go without making an offer, they won’t even sign TO for 1 year. They could have had Coles last year and they passed. Unless Dez Bryant is drafted which won’t happen, the next big WR for Miami would be Golden Tate in the 2nd round. Hartline is going to start and Miami will develop him. He had 31/500/3Tds last year. I can easily see him getting to about 50/750/5Tds, and you can get him way late. Those numbers might not get you overly excited but I would rather have this guy as my WR5 with some real upside over a guy that you know isn’t going to improve at all. Bess is a shrimp and only gains about 10 ypc, Camarillo is behind Hartline on the depth charts and Teddy Ginn is no threat either.

Kenny Britt: Late 1st rounder and did very well last year. Probably should be included with the 1st 4 WRs I mentioned. My only problem with Britt is Vince Young. Britt is a big guy and has the OchoCinco attitude about his skills meaning he’s not shy and will go up against anyone. I like him a lot and also his approach to the game is far from boring. Only 5 games of double digits last year but he had 42/700/3Tds…he should build on that and I think we are looking at more like 800-950 for his yardage totals, maybe 55-60 balls, and hopefully an uptick in his TDs.

Mike Wallace: 3rd rounder from a year ago that managed to rack 756 yds and 6 TDs fighting for time and targets against Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. There is a ceiling to what this guy can do as a WR3 on his team but should he become a starter due to an injury to an aging WR like Ward, or a suspension form a WR like Holmes, this guy can produce when he is called upon. Trying to gauge numbers for this guy is meaningless but he becomes a very worthwhile pick if he gets to start at some point this season. Otherwise he is going too early. Taking the Pitt WR3 when some guys that are WR1 on their teams are on the board is simply nuts.

Austin Collie: 4th rounder form a year ago that was thrust into playing when Gonzalez went down for the year. I don’t see this guy making as big a splash this year. I think Gonzalez will get his spot back when he returns, or at least outplay Collie for the WR3. Collie had a lot of double digit games last year but I expect his numbers to drop dramatically next year. Many will argue with me about it, that’s fine.

Louis Murphy: Was a favorite target for Bruce Gradkowski down the stretch. He had a big game against Pittsburgh. I like Murphy a lot in dynasty but in redraft I am not as high. Even if Gradkoski starts, he’s had health problems most of his NFL career and I would be surprised if he could start 10-11 games out of 16. In redraft I think he is pretty risky and probably not someone you are going to want to really start all that often. 34/520/4Tds a year ago is nothing to sneeze at…but you have to assume DHB is going to get more targets this year, and Schillens is going to be 100% to go this time around. Oakland is just one of those teams I try and avoid other than Zach Miller.

Mohamed Massaquoi: He is another one of my favorites and I think he will benefit big time form Delhomme under center. This guy didn’t have a lot of double digit games but he did have some games like 8/148 against CInci his 4th NFL game of his career…how many rookies were asked to start? He was and probably should have been watching more than playing. But I saw a guy with some big skills. And he is going to get better. 34 catches 624 yds, 3Tds…I see him racking up 50+ balls this year, a jump to about 800-900 yds(maybe more), and 5-6 Tds, I like him to take a nice step forward this year. Cleveland will continue to start this guy. He had a terrible target to reception % but I feel his QBs had as much to do with that as he did. Neither of them are on the roster right now so I give MM the benefit of the doubt. He’s 6”2’, 210, nice size, I think people will be surprised with what they see this year, I’m very optimistic he can rack up garbage time stats too.

Others…Brandon Gibson, Johnny Knox, Mike Thomas, Julian Edelman Deon Butler…who do you like this season?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Technical difficulties are thru.

 

[thriftyrocker]

2010 only, I like Edelman with Welker missing time recovering.

Murphy will get a big bump if they sign Jason Campbell.

I think Hartline will not do much better than last year. He doesn't have much room to develop.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Gotta question for you MOP....

You seem to think Nicks will be a STAR and honestly i agree with your settiments and think he is the best wr in this group.

You also list him with a tad bit better possible numbers than Crabtree who you have #1.

My question is why then list him under Crabtree and Harvin? Is it cause the "herd" thinks Crabtree is the top wr from this class??

Same goes with Harvin...he was pimped as a top 12 dynasty wr early last year. Is that why you give them a higher spot in your rankings to apease

most people who feel that way.

I likes the list dont get me wrong. I think this class offers a broad bunch of very talented wr which I would put Nicks and Crabtree atop of everyone but Maclin Harvin Britt is right there nipping at there heels.

I also saw where you have Britt lower due to Vince but didnt Gage post some nice numbers while playing part time with Vince? I think the titans have room for grow a nice scoring FF wr.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Nice little writeup, thanks.

I like Maclin's talent as much as Nicks' and see their upside and situational limitations as similar. They both are on a team with capable WRs that posted better numbers than the rookies in 09, but IMO they both might be the most talented WR on their respective team. In any case, I think their upsides are limited a bit due to the WR 1a and 1b on the same team syndrome... they may not get enough targets to have a shot at top 5.

One quibble: double digit points in PPR is not much of a yardstick; 5 for 50 is a very pedestrian stat line and not worth mentioning as a positive, imo.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Gotta question for you MOP....

You seem to think Nicks will be a STAR and honestly i agree with your settiments and think he is the best wr in this group.

You also list him with a tad bit better possible numbers than Crabtree who you have #1.

My question is why then list him under Crabtree and Harvin? Is it cause the "herd" thinks Crabtree is the top wr from this class??

Same goes with Harvin...he was pimped as a top 12 dynasty wr early last year. Is that why you give them a higher spot in your rankings to apease

most people who feel that way.

I likes the list dont get me wrong. I think this class offers a broad bunch of very talented wr which I would put Nicks and Crabtree atop of everyone but Maclin Harvin Britt is right there nipping at there heels.

I also saw where you have Britt lower due to Vince but didnt Gage post some nice numbers while playing part time with Vince? I think the titans have room for grow a nice scoring FF wr.

FYI...I don't rank them but rather go over most of them. Maybe I should have loisted Nicks first.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice little writeup, thanks.I like Maclin's talent as much as Nicks' and see their upside and situational limitations as similar. They both are on a team with capable WRs that posted better numbers than the rookies in 09, but IMO they both might be the most talented WR on their respective team. In any case, I think their upsides are limited a bit due to the WR 1a and 1b on the same team syndrome... they may not get enough targets to have a shot at top 5.One quibble: double digit points in PPR is not much of a yardstick; 5 for 50 is a very pedestrian stat line and not worth mentioning as a positive, imo.

10 is a lot better than whn you get one of those 1/15 performances that so many have at different spells during the season. 10 might not make up a lot of ground but at least they show up with double digits IMO. Very few if any WRs avg 20 a game. Where do you draw the line?

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

IMO Crabtree, Maclin, Britt, Nicks and Harvin all have the "potential" to be #1 WRs on their respective teams and fantasy factors (most of them were last year).

While I don't buy into the 3rd year breakout WR theory, I do think it takes a couple years before a young WR's role is clearly established. Unless you are Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson, touches >>> talent.

 

[Tanner9919]

Technical difficulties are thru.

for dynasty leagues, Mike Wallace is going to be the best of the bunchit's only a matter of time before Ward retires. Pitt is converting to a pass-first offense..Nicks is the next best WR of this bunch,but with a young , capable #1 WR in Steve Smith , Nicks will only be the Giants #2..

 

[Dr. Octopus]

One quibble: double digit points in PPR is not much of a yardstick; 5 for 50 is a very pedestrian stat line and not worth mentioning as a positive, imo.

There's a place for consistent 10+ point WRs even in ppr leagues. 5 for 50 isn't a great stat line - but not every player on your roster is going to be a star and a solid dependable possession guy isn't a liability as a WR3.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Technical difficulties are thru.

for dynasty leagues, Mike Wallace is going to be the best of the bunchit's only a matter of time before Ward retires. Pitt is converting to a pass-first offense..Nicks is the next best WR of this bunch,but with a young , capable #1 WR in Steve Smith , Nicks will only be the Giants #2..

Wow; really?U don't think San Fran will try and build that offense around Crabtree? Or with Kolb as the QB running the West Coast offense, Philly won't try to take advatnage of Maclin's playmaking ability?

 

[FUBAR]

Jeremy Maclin: Another 1st rounder in 2009, that is shaping up to be one of the most impressive WR classes in a very very long time. Maclin had 8 games of double digits, had a nice ypc woth over 750 yds on 55 receptions. Macling has a decent chance to hit 70+ this year. Kolb will be working with him, and he has quite a talent across from him. I do not see Maclin in the same league with nicks, added to that he is a WR2 and will probably not pass Jackson as the WR1 any time soon. I like what Maclin brings to the table but I see him as more of a 800-950 yds type of WR which there are lots and lots of. Maybe he can notch 1,000 yds but I feel there is a limit for him with DeSean on the other side and a 1st year starter in Kolb.

I disagree, while I like DJax, this will be a 1a/1b type situation. I agree that there's a limit with Kolb and sharing targets with DJax, Celek and even McCoy. I'm not taking him in my redrafts but I like his long term outlook a lot.

Kenny Britt: Late 1st rounder and did very well last year. Probably should be included with the 1st 4 WRs I mentioned. My only problem with Britt is Vince Young. Britt is a big guy and has the OchoCinco attitude about his skills meaning he’s not shy and will go up against anyone. I like him a lot and also his approach to the game is far from boring. Only 5 games of double digits last year but he had 42/700/3Tds…he should build on that and I think we are looking at more like 800-950 for his yardage totals, maybe 55-60 balls, and hopefully an uptick in his TDs.

I was completely wrong on Britt before the year and he did disappear the last 3 games but watching the games last year showed me this guy is a big time player. VY isn't the passer the other big 4 have - although maybe not too far from Smith? So Britt's upside is limited for now, but I'm thrilled that he's a Titan. I think you're right, 60/900 is the short term upside. But maybe VY will develop more, he did look pretty good at times last year, pushing Britt right into the Maclin/Harvin level, right behind Nicks and Crabtree. FWIW, I agree with you that Nicks will probably be in the top 10, not sure he's close to Fitz/Calvin though.

 

[FUBAR]

One quibble: double digit points in PPR is not much of a yardstick; 5 for 50 is a very pedestrian stat line and not worth mentioning as a positive, imo.

There's a place for consistent 10+ point WRs even in ppr leagues. 5 for 50 isn't a great stat line - but not every player on your roster is going to be a star and a solid dependable possession guy isn't a liability as a WR3.

Honestly, how many players consistently get 5/50? That's still 80/800 on the year at the lowest, and it's more likely to be 4/60 anyway. I'm thrilled to have guys that consistently put up 10 ppg in ppr, they aren't as common as some believe as I agree - as your WR3, that's valuable.

 

[finito]

Nicks is the next best WR of this bunch,but with a young , capable #1 WR in Steve Smith , Nicks will only be the Giants #2..

There are many who think Nicks will overtake Smith as the #1. I think Nicks is in an entirely different stratosphere in terms of talent. Smith will certainly get plenty of catches, but IMO this will be Nicks' team within the next two years.I think Johnny Knox and Sammy Stroughter should be in the discussion as well. Both have solid opps to produce this season.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Very solid group of WR's in that crop. I like just about all of them at some point in a draft.

I think Crabtree who I like may be to valued though heading into this season. I see him going in the 3rd round of some redrafts, to me that's too high.

Harvin's a big talent, but without Farve everyone on that team will suffer, wait and see.

Both Nicks and Maclin should take a step forward, along with Britt.

I like Hartline as a sleeper as well. I'm not sure what to think of Wallace. I can't fault people for being high on him and if you get him around WR 40 or beyond that's not bad.

 

[kremenull]

Nice analysis here MOP. However, one of the things that I believe is being overlooked is the current Giants situation. For Nicks to ascend to these lofty rankings and perch (you say Top 5 overall WR, WOW!), there are several factors that definitely could limit that prediction.

1. The Giants pecking order in the passing game. Until proven otherwise, Steve Smith is the #1 target there. I see a guy who absolutely has Eli's trust and that cannot be emphasized enough for what that means to a 'Manning' QB. As a possession WR, I see Smith getting the most targets here, I think its actually a lock for the next couple of seasons, at least.

2. The presence of Manningham, among others. Ala big brother in Indy, the Giants could, and likely will, employ a lot more 3- and 4-WR sets, with Manningham being a very talented player in his own right. Target distribution may very well be spread out much more than many believe at this point.

3. Giants identity. What is it? Could they possibly revert to a more balanced team, or even worse for fantasy owners, much more of a smashmouth running attack?

4. Lastly, the draft. Who will they bring in at the skill positions? With talk of possibly drafting Spiller, or a somewhat similar player like a McCluster or McKnight who would be cheaper, players like this would seriously impact the touch distribution on this team. With Boss being nothing special, IMO, what about a top-rated TE possibly getting drafted?

I believe that Nick has some talent, no doubt, although I can't see any Calvin or Fitz potential there. It's just a bit premature to annoint this kid as a pretty sure bet to ascend to the levels you are projecting here, especially so soon (2nd year). Situation and talent (not only his overrated but the surrounding cast's underrated) doesn't quite add up to these projections...

 

[Avery]

Nice analysis here MOP. However, one of the things that I believe is being overlooked is the current Giants situation. For Nicks to ascend to these lofty rankings and perch (you say Top 5 overall WR, WOW!), there are several factors that definitely could limit that prediction.

1. The Giants pecking order in the passing game. Until proven otherwise, Steve Smith is the #1 target there. I see a guy who absolutely has Eli's trust and that cannot be emphasized enough for what that means to a 'Manning' QB. As a possession WR, I see Smith getting the most targets here, I think its actually a lock for the next couple of seasons, at least.

I love Nicks talent and his strong, aggressive running after the catch. I think he has a very high ceiling however, many don't understand what an accomplished technician Steve Smith is. He is already one of the best route runners in the NFL.

Height, strength and speed is one way to get open, but running great, crisp routes is another way to always be open. Steve Smith may not be a physically imposing specimen but his ability to get open will keep him as a key component of the Giants passing game, potentially limiting Nicks production.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I think Eli's development will lead to plenty of opportunities for both Nicks and Smith over the long term. I'd put Crabtree and Nicks as 1 and 1A in this class.

 

[Sweet Love]

Nicks is the next best WR of this bunch,but with a young , capable #1 WR in Steve Smith , Nicks will only be the Giants #2..

There are many who think Nicks will overtake Smith as the #1. I think Nicks is in an entirely different stratosphere in terms of talent. Smith will certainly get plenty of catches, but IMO this will be Nicks' team within the next two years.I think Johnny Knox and Sammy Stroughter should be in the discussion as well. Both have solid opps to produce this season.

I can easlily see Nicks taking on a #1 role with Smith getting more targets, but less potential for big plays, but Manningham seems somewhat similar to Nicks and I can see the two canibalizing eachother's numbers/opportunities. I also think last year was a "blip" on the radar screen in being so dedicated to the pass, and if they can get the ground game going again, that could hurt a little bit too.

 

[Sweet Love]

MoP,

Very nice writeup (as always).

Here are just a few quick thoughts:

Nicks: see post above

Murphy: At this point too much of an unknown until that QB situation settles, BUT can be had cheap, so not much risk if you can acquire him now.

Harvin: I really have little basis for this, but I shy away from guys that are gimmicky, or more importantly, put into that type of role. If I am looking long-term (or for consistency), I really like my players to play in ttraditional roles. I do niss out on guys like this, but I also have a better handle of what I am getting week-in, week-out. Don't get me wrong, he is good, very good and could develop into a fine receiver, but WR is a hard position to learn at this level and unless they are given consistency, it is difficult for them to develop. For example, I truly believe that had Pittsburgh not drafted ARE, Ward would not be the receiver he is today, as they temptation to have him on the field in multiple roles would have been too great for the coaching staff to pass up. Adding to that, ARE never really got a fair shake to develop into a traditional WR and while he showed flashes in Washington, had he had a better base to build on, he may have been more consistent.

 

[kremenull]

MoP, Very nice writeup (as always). Here are just a few quick thoughts: Nicks: see post aboveMurphy: At this point too much of an unknown until that QB situation settles, BUT can be had cheap, so not much risk if you can acquire him now.Harvin: I really have little basis for this, but I shy away from guys that are gimmicky, or more importantly, put into that type of role. If I am looking long-term (or for consistency), I really like my players to play in ttraditional roles. I do niss out on guys like this, but I also have a better handle of what I am getting week-in, week-out. Don't get me wrong, he is good, very good and could develop into a fine receiver, but WR is a hard position to learn at this level and unless they are given consistency, it is difficult for them to develop. For example, I truly believe that had Pittsburgh not drafted ARE, Ward would not be the receiver he is today, as they temptation to have him on the field in multiple roles would have been too great for the coaching staff to pass up. Adding to that, ARE never really got a fair shake to develop into a traditional WR and while he showed flashes in Washington, had he had a better base to build on, he may have been more consistent.

I don't see anything gimmicky about being a "Playmaker". Harvin is a special football player, not some gimmicky, undersized guy who can only be used "situationally". Do guys really understand that Harvin is 6'0" and 200 lbs? Why would this make him "gimmicky"? This is more than enough for feature-WR size, and he has the game to boot. And contrary to popular perception, his learning curve is essentially done, he's already pretty polished as well as accomplished. You just may see a DeSean-like progression as he should play even "faster" than before due to the valuable experience he gained in Year 1.Harvin and Maclin are the top 2 talents in this class, easily. In assessing long-term potential, I side with talent first and foremost. Add in the fact that these two guys are on the better (more dynamic and passing game oriented) offenses than any of these WRs, and I'd rate them both ahead of Crabtree and Nicks long-term, although it's essentially a toss-up depending upon your flavor.For 2010, I'd rank them as far as production in this order.....1. Maclin2. Crabtree3. Harvin4. Britt5. Nicks

 

[travdogg]

I don't see anything gimmicky about being a "Playmaker". Harvin is a special football player, not some gimmicky, undersized guy who can only be used "situationally". Do guys really understand that Harvin is 6'0" and 200 lbs? Why would this make him "gimmicky"? This is more than enough for feature-WR size, and he has the game to boot. And contrary to popular perception, his learning curve is essentially done, he's already pretty polished as well as accomplished. You just may see a DeSean-like progression as he should play even "faster" than before due to the valuable experience he gained in Year 1.

Harvin and Maclin are the top 2 talents in this class, easily. In assessing long-term potential, I side with talent first and foremost. Add in the fact that these two guys are on the better (more dynamic and passing game oriented) offenses than any of these WRs, and I'd rate them both ahead of Crabtree and Nicks long-term, although it's essentially a toss-up depending upon your flavor.

For 2010, I'd rank them as far as production in this order.....

1. Maclin

2. Crabtree

3. Harvin

4. Britt

5. Nicks

I agree completely with the bolded statement. If anyone from the 2009 class is going to make a huge jump, I think it will be Harvin. You are also right about the whole gimmick argument. Bottom line, this guy had almost 800 yards receiving as a rookie and at this time 2 years ago was a RB for Florida. Frankly, after Calvin and DeSean, I think Harvin is the next best WR prospect to come out in the last 3 years, and a better talent than anyone in this class. Playing with Favre is helping him develop even quicker. I like Maclin and you could be right about him being the 2nd most talented WR of the bunch, but I see him as the #3 optiojn in Philly's passing game and I'm not sure that will change soon. He's capapble of being a multi-time 1,000 yard WR, but Jackson is definately the #1 there, and Celek is Kolb's security blanket, or at least was in his 2 starts its going to be tougher for Maclin to compete with these other guys. But he's certainly talented enough to. Maybe if Kolb lives up to the Rodgers/Schaub comparisons?

My 2010 ranks for the 2nd year WR's goes like this:

1. Harvin, I think by the end of 2010 he'll be the most valuable WR on the Vikings.

2. Crabtree, not as talented as Harvin, but should get a bigger peice of a smaller pie with in SF.

3. Nicks, I think Smith is entrenched as NY's #1. Nicks may have more talent, but Smith and Eli are tight.

4. Maclin, 2 thru 4 could be in any order, I just see more consistent targets for Crabtree and Nicks.

5(t). Britt, he's a great talent, but I get the same feeling from him I get from Bowe. Being in Tennessee doesn't help.

5(t). Knox, he's my sleeper of the 2009 class. I think he'll be the Bears #1 and Cutler/Martz have good track records.

 

[Wadsworth]

With Mike Thomas you have to keep on eye on the Jags depth chart. If he can win the WR2 job and break free of the "slot WR only" label he could have some potential. He missed the first 2 games of the season yet still managed a respectable 48 catches for 453 and 1 TD while leading NFL WRs in target conversion percentage. He is a long shot as a fantasy force in 2010, but Holt is gone, Sims-Walker has a long history of injury issues and presently Troy Williamson seems to be his only competition for the WR2 job. Best case scenario would be the Jags using him in a Welker like role which might make him relevant in PPR or in theory at least he has Steve Smith type potential but that's a long shot at this point.

The kid has some talent and had he been drafted by a team with a more refined passing offense he might already be on the fantasy map. But with Garrard at QB and Del Rio as head coach it's hard to imagine two Jacksonville WRs being in the fantasy mix. I like his potential long term for many reasons, but in 2010 if Sims-Walker stays healthy more than a 25% improvement on 2009 stats doesn't seem likely.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice analysis here MOP. However, one of the things that I believe is being overlooked is the current Giants situation. For Nicks to ascend to these lofty rankings and perch (you say Top 5 overall WR, WOW!), there are several factors that definitely could limit that prediction.1. The Giants pecking order in the passing game. Until proven otherwise, Steve Smith is the #1 target there. I see a guy who absolutely has Eli's trust and that cannot be emphasized enough for what that means to a 'Manning' QB. As a possession WR, I see Smith getting the most targets here, I think its actually a lock for the next couple of seasons, at least.2. The presence of Manningham, among others. Ala big brother in Indy, the Giants could, and likely will, employ a lot more 3- and 4-WR sets, with Manningham being a very talented player in his own right. Target distribution may very well be spread out much more than many believe at this point.3. Giants identity. What is it? Could they possibly revert to a more balanced team, or even worse for fantasy owners, much more of a smashmouth running attack?4. Lastly, the draft. Who will they bring in at the skill positions? With talk of possibly drafting Spiller, or a somewhat similar player like a McCluster or McKnight who would be cheaper, players like this would seriously impact the touch distribution on this team. With Boss being nothing special, IMO, what about a top-rated TE possibly getting drafted?I believe that Nick has some talent, no doubt, although I can't see any Calvin or Fitz potential there. It's just a bit premature to annoint this kid as a pretty sure bet to ascend to the levels you are projecting here, especially so soon (2nd year). Situation and talent (not only his overrated but the surrounding cast's underrated) doesn't quite add up to these projections...

All very well thought out, nice post. I'm gonna answer with this...Nicks talent is goign to trump everything. Steve Smith is a nice possession WR and bevcause the other WRs on NY were so young, that even a 3rd year guy like Smith was bound to benefit form targets. When I lived in Santa Monica I got to meet one of Smith's HS coaches and we talked a lot about Smith and his upside in the NFL. Needless to say I was shocked Smith caught 100 balls but that is going to change this season. No WR is being taken so far over value right now to me as Steve Smith from the Giants. Smith will still collect a lot of balls but he is not a big play threat and Nicks is going to elevate this receiving corp to a new level. He has superior skills to all of them, and Manningham will benefit from Nicks as much or more than the other way around. I'm not sure if everyone saw all the plays Nicks made or if they were kicking themsleves for not getting him in the rookie drafts, but this guy IMO has the potential to be elite. Steve Smith will never be an elite talent in the NFL. Nicks can take a ball and be gone, he showed that last season.

 

[FUBAR]

5(t). Knox, he's my sleeper of the 2009 class. I think he'll be the Bears #1 and Cutler/Martz have good track records.

FWIW, Knox went in the 9th round in my ongoing draft although we do get return points. My sleeper is Deon Butler, who I took in the 15th. Brandon Tate is another good sleeper IMO.

 

[Neo]

Anyone have any thoughts on Brian Robiskie? He was supposed to be one of the most polished rookie receivers and couldn't see the field on a team with wr concerns....does this guy have any value at all moving forward?

 

[FUBAR]

I'm not sure if everyone saw all the plays Nicks made or if they were kicking themsleves for not getting him in the rookie drafts, but this guy IMO has the potential to be elite. Steve Smith will never be an elite talent in the NFL. Nicks can take a ball and be gone, he showed that last season.

depends how you define talent, IMO route-running is a talent although one that can be taught. Smith is elite in that regard. I see Nicks as the big-play go-to type but Smith has a role as the sure-handed shorter pass WR. The two will make a formidable duo.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP, Very nice writeup (as always). Here are just a few quick thoughts: Nicks: see post aboveMurphy: At this point too much of an unknown until that QB situation settles, BUT can be had cheap, so not much risk if you can acquire him now.Harvin: I really have little basis for this, but I shy away from guys that are gimmicky, or more importantly, put into that type of role. If I am looking long-term (or for consistency), I really like my players to play in ttraditional roles. I do niss out on guys like this, but I also have a better handle of what I am getting week-in, week-out. Don't get me wrong, he is good, very good and could develop into a fine receiver, but WR is a hard position to learn at this level and unless they are given consistency, it is difficult for them to develop. For example, I truly believe that had Pittsburgh not drafted ARE, Ward would not be the receiver he is today, as they temptation to have him on the field in multiple roles would have been too great for the coaching staff to pass up. Adding to that, ARE never really got a fair shake to develop into a traditional WR and while he showed flashes in Washington, had he had a better base to build on, he may have been more consistent.

Hi SL,The Manningham/Nicks thing is gonna work itself out...I would not put it past the Giants to deal Mario or maybe Hixon...we don't talk about Hixon but he got hyped big before Nicks arrived...and that's what a WR like Nicks can do...he has made Hixon completely irrelevant to most of us. I still like Hixon but he's buried for now. I own Murphy in a few leagues, scooped him up quickly last year once he flashed some skills. I like Murphy a lot too but they need a stable QB before I get too excited. Murphy in 3 or 4 years will either be the WR1/2 in Oakland or starting for someone else. he played with Harvin at Florida and he is proving that teams should not have overlooked him. Harvin: Agree with you, but this season(2010) Harvin will be a good play as long as Favre is back...owners should look to deal him whenever they can cash in. Great post SL, looking forward to a banter filled summer. MOP

 

[LawFitz]

What, no DHB? :X

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks.

Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds.

Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catches

Hakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6Tds

I show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...

Smith: 160...10 a game!!!

Manningham: 99

Nicks: 75

About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy.

Please don't shoot the messenger guys :X

Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

 

[EBF]

This group is getting a lot of love in dynasty drafts. Crabtree, Nicks, Maclin, Harvin, and Britt are all going in the first 5 rounds in most leagues. I kind of doubt all of these guys will justify the expectations, but I like this group and I think they could be exceptional when it's all said and done. All of the top five had promising rookie seasons, so it's hard to separate them. At this point it mainly comes down to personal taste and gut instinct. I would rank them:

1. Crabtree - Had a very Fitz-like rookie season and should become a high reception starter and a 1000+ yard WR next season. The only thing his game lacks is big plays, which could limit his upside.

2. Harvin - I think he can be a very solid WR2, but probably not much more than that. He's a good possession WR who's also fast enough to get down field. Some see Steve Smith type production in his future. I think he'll produce more like a young Laveranues Coles. Solid WR2/WR3 in redraft and dynasty given competent QB play.

3. Nicks - Like a less perfect version of Crabtree. Good possession WR who can sneak it downfield on occasion. In their system there's no reason why he can't put up solid WR2 numbers next season. He's a very trendy player right now and his price tag is sky high. He may be slightly overrated ala Dwayne Bowe.

4. Maclin - He seems to fit their system well with his downfield speed and was surprisingly consistent from week to week last season. I don't ever see him becoming a great possession WR, but optimists could make a Chad Johnson comparison. I think he will threaten 1000 yards, but I see him more as a WR3-WR4 in FF leagues for the time being.

5. Britt - I think he might be the least talented of this fivesome, but he was still a first round pick and he's easily the best WR on the Titans. I kind of expect a mediocre year because I have no faith in Vince Young as a quarterback, but if Britt falls in redraft leagues then he could present a nice value.

Beyond this group I'm not too excited about anyone. I think Wallace is overrated. Collie produced at his ceiling last season and I doubt Massaquoi will become a reliable starter. Knox could make some noise in Martz's system and Edelman might be a steal. I think DHB could eventually become a Stallworth/Meachem type despite his lack of ideal football instincts/skills.

 

[loose circuits]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks. Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds. Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catchesHakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6TdsI show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...Smith: 160...10 a game!!!Manningham: 99Nicks: 75About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy. Please don't shoot the messenger guys Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Smith was hurt most of his rookie season or he would have been handling the slot like he did in the playoffs that year

 

[loose circuits]

so many of these guys to like. My personal favorites (in terms of value) are Edelman, Butler, Stroughter, Knox, and Wallace. I think all 5 could end up with the opportunity to enter the conversation.

could this end up one of the best WR draft classes of all-time? While the 1st one taken could be the worst...lol

 

[ty247]

Jeremy Maclin: Another 1st rounder in 2009, that is shaping up to be one of the most impressive WR classes in a very very long time. Maclin had 8 games of double digits, had a nice ypc woth over 750 yds on 55 receptions. Macling has a decent chance to hit 70+ this year. Kolb will be working with him, and he has quite a talent across from him. I do not see Maclin in the same league with nicks, added to that he is a WR2 and will probably not pass Jackson as the WR1 any time soon. I like what Maclin brings to the table but I see him as more of a 800-950 yds type of WR which there are lots and lots of. Maybe he can notch 1,000 yds but I feel there is a limit for him with DeSean on the other side and a 1st year starter in Kolb.

I disagree, while I like DJax, this will be a 1a/1b type situation. I agree that there's a limit with Kolb and sharing targets with DJax, Celek and even McCoy. I'm not taking him in my redrafts but I like his long term outlook a lot.

Kenny Britt: Late 1st rounder and did very well last year. Probably should be included with the 1st 4 WRs I mentioned. My only problem with Britt is Vince Young. Britt is a big guy and has the OchoCinco attitude about his skills meaning he’s not shy and will go up against anyone. I like him a lot and also his approach to the game is far from boring. Only 5 games of double digits last year but he had 42/700/3Tds…he should build on that and I think we are looking at more like 800-950 for his yardage totals, maybe 55-60 balls, and hopefully an uptick in his TDs.

I was completely wrong on Britt before the year and he did disappear the last 3 games but watching the games last year showed me this guy is a big time player. VY isn't the passer the other big 4 have - although maybe not too far from Smith? So Britt's upside is limited for now, but I'm thrilled that he's a Titan. I think you're right, 60/900 is the short term upside. But maybe VY will develop more, he did look pretty good at times last year, pushing Britt right into the Maclin/Harvin level, right behind Nicks and Crabtree. FWIW, I agree with you that Nicks will probably be in the top 10, not sure he's close to Fitz/Calvin though.

Britt disappeared the last few games of the season, because the Titans were intent on getting CJ his 2k rushing yards.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks. Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds. Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catchesHakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6TdsI show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...Smith: 160...10 a game!!!Manningham: 99Nicks: 75About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy. Please don't shoot the messenger guys Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Smith was hurt most of his rookie season or he would have been handling the slot like he did in the playoffs that year

Seriously? You're gonna unravel all that with a simple "Smith was hurt" as a rookie. Even if he wasn't hurt he was pretty average when he was on the field...and he only had 8 catches that year, c'mon now. And I looked up his rookie playoff run...3/30, 4/40, 2/25...not exactly ripping holes thru defenses. In fact defenses are not afrais of Steve Smith...his career avg is in the 10 yard range, he's TJ Housh and on another team I'm not sure Smith would stand out that much.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Jeremy Maclin: Another 1st rounder in 2009, that is shaping up to be one of the most impressive WR classes in a very very long time. Maclin had 8 games of double digits, had a nice ypc woth over 750 yds on 55 receptions. Macling has a decent chance to hit 70+ this year. Kolb will be working with him, and he has quite a talent across from him. I do not see Maclin in the same league with nicks, added to that he is a WR2 and will probably not pass Jackson as the WR1 any time soon. I like what Maclin brings to the table but I see him as more of a 800-950 yds type of WR which there are lots and lots of. Maybe he can notch 1,000 yds but I feel there is a limit for him with DeSean on the other side and a 1st year starter in Kolb.

I disagree, while I like DJax, this will be a 1a/1b type situation. I agree that there's a limit with Kolb and sharing targets with DJax, Celek and even McCoy. I'm not taking him in my redrafts but I like his long term outlook a lot.

Kenny Britt: Late 1st rounder and did very well last year. Probably should be included with the 1st 4 WRs I mentioned. My only problem with Britt is Vince Young. Britt is a big guy and has the OchoCinco attitude about his skills meaning he's not shy and will go up against anyone. I like him a lot and also his approach to the game is far from boring. Only 5 games of double digits last year but he had 42/700/3Tds…he should build on that and I think we are looking at more like 800-950 for his yardage totals, maybe 55-60 balls, and hopefully an uptick in his TDs.

I was completely wrong on Britt before the year and he did disappear the last 3 games but watching the games last year showed me this guy is a big time player. VY isn't the passer the other big 4 have - although maybe not too far from Smith? So Britt's upside is limited for now, but I'm thrilled that he's a Titan. I think you're right, 60/900 is the short term upside. But maybe VY will develop more, he did look pretty good at times last year, pushing Britt right into the Maclin/Harvin level, right behind Nicks and Crabtree. FWIW, I agree with you that Nicks will probably be in the top 10, not sure he's close to Fitz/Calvin though.

Britt disappeared the last few games of the season, because the Titans were intent on getting CJ his 2k rushing yards.

And along those lines, wouldn't you like a guy like Britt as your WR4 with some upside? CJ isn't going to rush for 2k again this year. They were 0-6 and had to rally around something.

 

[ty247]

Jeremy Maclin: Another 1st rounder in 2009, that is shaping up to be one of the most impressive WR classes in a very very long time. Maclin had 8 games of double digits, had a nice ypc woth over 750 yds on 55 receptions. Macling has a decent chance to hit 70+ this year. Kolb will be working with him, and he has quite a talent across from him. I do not see Maclin in the same league with nicks, added to that he is a WR2 and will probably not pass Jackson as the WR1 any time soon. I like what Maclin brings to the table but I see him as more of a 800-950 yds type of WR which there are lots and lots of. Maybe he can notch 1,000 yds but I feel there is a limit for him with DeSean on the other side and a 1st year starter in Kolb.

I disagree, while I like DJax, this will be a 1a/1b type situation. I agree that there's a limit with Kolb and sharing targets with DJax, Celek and even McCoy. I'm not taking him in my redrafts but I like his long term outlook a lot.

Kenny Britt: Late 1st rounder and did very well last year. Probably should be included with the 1st 4 WRs I mentioned. My only problem with Britt is Vince Young. Britt is a big guy and has the OchoCinco attitude about his skills meaning he's not shy and will go up against anyone. I like him a lot and also his approach to the game is far from boring. Only 5 games of double digits last year but he had 42/700/3Tds…he should build on that and I think we are looking at more like 800-950 for his yardage totals, maybe 55-60 balls, and hopefully an uptick in his TDs.

I was completely wrong on Britt before the year and he did disappear the last 3 games but watching the games last year showed me this guy is a big time player. VY isn't the passer the other big 4 have - although maybe not too far from Smith? So Britt's upside is limited for now, but I'm thrilled that he's a Titan. I think you're right, 60/900 is the short term upside. But maybe VY will develop more, he did look pretty good at times last year, pushing Britt right into the Maclin/Harvin level, right behind Nicks and Crabtree. FWIW, I agree with you that Nicks will probably be in the top 10, not sure he's close to Fitz/Calvin though.

Britt disappeared the last few games of the season, because the Titans were intent on getting CJ his 2k rushing yards.

And along those lines, wouldn't you like a guy like Britt as your WR4 with some upside? CJ isn't going to rush for 2k again this year. They were 0-6 and had to rally around something.

I drafted Britt in my leagues.. so yah I like him I simply posted that to show that he could have had more receptions and yards, he simply didn't because of the dedication to the run game for CJ's sake towards the end.

 

[loose circuits]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks. Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds. Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catchesHakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6TdsI show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...Smith: 160...10 a game!!!Manningham: 99Nicks: 75About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy. Please don't shoot the messenger guys Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Smith was hurt most of his rookie season or he would have been handling the slot like he did in the playoffs that year

Seriously? You're gonna unravel all that with a simple "Smith was hurt" as a rookie. Even if he wasn't hurt he was pretty average when he was on the field...and he only had 8 catches that year, c'mon now. And I looked up his rookie playoff run...3/30, 4/40, 2/25...not exactly ripping hiles thru defenses. In fact defenses are not afrais of Steve Smith...his career avg is in the 10 yard range, he's TJ Housh and on another team I'm not sure Smith would stand out that much.

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.let me ask you a few questions:1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

 

[kremenull]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks.

Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds.

Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catches

Hakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6Tds

I show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...

Smith: 160...10 a game!!!

Manningham: 99

Nicks: 75

About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy.

Please don't shoot the messenger guys

Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Hey MOP, you are certainly a good messenger, and this is strictly a good debate from my perspective, never an attempt to downplay your presentation/position. There are always a couple of sides to an argument, and you very well could be on the right side. But WRT the bolded above, I also was a skeptic of a guy named Wes Welker being able to repeat, eventually 3-peat no-less, a 100 catch season. The same things were presented back then as to why he would tail off, low ypr, not enough big plays, and so forth, but one thing that I realized is that when you have strong chemistry and trust with your QB, consistently great things can and often do occur. Nicks is certainly more physically gifted than Smith, but Smith is very, very reliable.........and polished.

Also, I believe Nicks would have had a very hard time breaking in with Plax and Toomer entrenched as Smith had to experience.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.let me ask you a few questions:1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

Without sounding like a turdmonster where do I begin?Let's start with that stat you threw up about being 7th in the league for the playoffs...he played in 4 games, and only 12 of the 20 NFL teams even make th post season. Are you saying that he helped New York get into the playoffs? That stat is almost funny except I know you are actually using it as a platform to debate off of, so I guess I just find it a bizarre way to compare. OK, let's assume Smith was hurt as a rookie, let's just compare SmithYear3, last year to NicksYear1, last year as well...Smith is simply not a big play WR. They are very different types of WR and I do think they make a fantastic combo but Smith seems pretty limited and if I were a wealthy man I would likely make a wager he doesn't sniff another 100+ catch season, not this year or maybe any other year. In PPR leagues we could call him a monster but I can't see how he will rack 100+ again with Nicks across form him. Nicks was explosive, far from a possession type WR(EBF IIRC)...I have no problem comparing what i saw out of him to a guy like TO. Can take a short or intermediate pass and turn it into 6 before the blink of an eye. He's dangerous in the open field and god help the DBs trying to bring this guy down cause most Cornerbacks are gonna whiff, he's simply too strong. This guy looked like he was trying to find contact at times last year. Fearless would be one of th emany adjectives I might use to describe him. I am very eager to see what he does in year 2...but almost 800 yds and 6 Tds on a team that isn't known as a pass happy bunch, yeah I think this guy has mad skills. But I'll tell you this, you put up a thread for two WRs, Smith/Nicks and ask the SP who they feel is more talented and I think Nicks would win...I could be wrong but I think Nicks would win. Obviously you are pretty high on Steve Smith this season. Do you feel he can duplicate his numbers from last year?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks.

Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds.

Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catches

Hakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6Tds

I show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...

Smith: 160...10 a game!!!

Manningham: 99

Nicks: 75

About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy.

Please don't shoot the messenger guys

Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Hey MOP, you are certainly a good messenger, and this is strictly a good debate from my perspective, never an attempt to downplay your presentation/position. There are always a couple of sides to an argument, and you very well could be on the right side. But WRT the bolded above, I also was a skeptic of a guy named Wes Welker being able to repeat, eventually 3-peat no-less, a 100 catch season. The same things were presented back then as to why he would tail off, low ypr, not enough big plays, and so forth, but one thing that I realized is that when you have strong chemistry and trust with your QB, consistently great things can and often do occur. Nicks is certainly more physically gifted than Smith, but Smith is very, very reliable.........and polished.

Also, I believe Nicks would have had a very hard time breaking in with Plax and Toomer entrenched as Smith had to experience.

I think the difference though is in the numbers and their roles. New York is not running a 3 WR set every time out and SMith is not workign the middle of the field in the slant role. He is lined up in the FL/SE tradional roles of a 2 wideout pro style system. Coughlin has had some nifty WR combos like Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell where both thrived but neither were ever elite. We know New York likes to run the ball so there are only so many Tds to go around thru the air. Nicks is going ot get a lot more targets this year. A lot more than 75 so someone has to come down in targets. Certainly we can knock MM down some but I also think we should shave some targets off Smith...10-15% would leave about 130-140 which I still plenty for him to do damage but Hicks is going to produce more yds and Tds per catch than Smith so you have to make up for that with a lot more receptions...and I don't think Smith will continue to reel in 100+ a year and the majority of the time I am with the numbers here, just lately where we have Welker and Marshall ripping off consecutive 100+ seasons but it doesn't happen that often.

The Pats throw the ball a lot, they use it like some teams use handoffs...the Giants don't do that, just keep that in mind.

 

[loose circuits]

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.let me ask you a few questions:1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

Without sounding like a turdmonster where do I begin?Let's start with that stat you threw up about being 7th in the league for the playoffs...he played in 4 games, and only 12 of the 20 NFL teams even make th post season. Are you saying that he helped New York get into the playoffs? That stat is almost funny except I know you are actually using it as a platform to debate off of, so I guess I just find it a bizarre way to compare. OK, let's assume Smith was hurt as a rookie, let's just compare SmithYear3, last year to NicksYear1, last year as well...Smith is simply not a big play WR. They are very different types of WR and I do think they make a fantastic combo but Smith seems pretty limited and if I were a wealthy man I would likely make a wager he doesn't sniff another 100+ catch season, not this year or maybe any other year. In PPR leagues we could call him a monster but I can't see how he will rack 100+ again with Nicks across form him. Nicks was explosive, far from a possession type WR(EBF IIRC)...I have no problem comparing what i saw out of him to a guy like TO. Can take a short or intermediate pass and turn it into 6 before the blink of an eye. He's dangerous in the open field and god help the DBs trying to bring this guy down cause most Cornerbacks are gonna whiff, he's simply too strong. This guy looked like he was trying to find contact at times last year. Fearless would be one of th emany adjectives I might use to describe him. I am very eager to see what he does in year 2...but almost 800 yds and 6 Tds on a team that isn't known as a pass happy bunch, yeah I think this guy has mad skills. But I'll tell you this, you put up a thread for two WRs, Smith/Nicks and ask the SP who they feel is more talented and I think Nicks would win...I could be wrong but I think Nicks would win. Obviously you are pretty high on Steve Smith this season. Do you feel he can duplicate his numbers from last year?

I'm not arguing that Nicks isn't the better big play threat. I'm saying their is a role for a guy like Steve Smith on any team. Eli has trust in him that he's gonna be where he is supposed to be at the time he is supposed to be there. He has good to great short area quicks and runs crisp routes. While Nicks may ultimately end up with more TD's, I do not expect Smith's numbers to fall off dramatically and believe he will lead the team in targets and catches again. The best comparison I could make is a poor man's Wayne & Harrison. For PPR leagues, I'd rather have Smith's consistency and I think overall their total points scored will be similarI used Smith's numbers from the playoffs his rookie year because that is really the only viable stats we have. I think we should throw all of it out as going forward it doesn't mean much. However you look at it, the 9 1st downs were important to the Giants success in winning the Super Bowl. It's possible an argument could be made that is what put them over the top while everything else remained the same from their regular season where they were a wild card team if I remember correctly

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm not arguing that Nicks isn't the better big play threat. I'm saying their is a role for a guy like Steve Smith on any team.

Agree, nothing to argue about for sure. I just feel Nicks will be the WR1 here and Smith will slide to WR2.

 

[39407]

3. Nicks - Like a less perfect version of Crabtree. Good possession WR who can sneak it downfield on occasion. In their system there's no reason why he can't put up solid WR2 numbers next season. He's a very trendy player right now and his price tag is sky high. He may be slightly overrated ala Dwayne Bowe.

Way too explosive to be labeled as a possession WR, swing and a miss here.

 

[FUBAR]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks.

Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds.

Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catches

Hakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6Tds

I show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...

Smith: 160...10 a game!!!

Manningham: 99

Nicks: 75

About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy.

Please don't shoot the messenger guys

Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Read my posts, I'm almost as high on Nicks as you are, I'm just saying Smith has shown that he'll have a vital role as well.

 

[flranger]

I'm not arguing that Nicks isn't the better big play threat. I'm saying their is a role for a guy like Steve Smith on any team.

Agree, nothing to argue about for sure. I just feel Nicks will be the WR1 here and Smith will slide to WR2.

This is a Moss vs Welker conversation if I ever saw it........................give me the Welker guy. I'd take Smith.

 

[kremenull]

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.let me ask you a few questions:1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

Without sounding like a turdmonster where do I begin?Let's start with that stat you threw up about being 7th in the league for the playoffs...he played in 4 games, and only 12 of the 20 NFL teams even make th post season. Are you saying that he helped New York get into the playoffs? That stat is almost funny except I know you are actually using it as a platform to debate off of, so I guess I just find it a bizarre way to compare. OK, let's assume Smith was hurt as a rookie, let's just compare SmithYear3, last year to NicksYear1, last year as well...Smith is simply not a big play WR. They are very different types of WR and I do think they make a fantastic combo but Smith seems pretty limited and if I were a wealthy man I would likely make a wager he doesn't sniff another 100+ catch season, not this year or maybe any other year. In PPR leagues we could call him a monster but I can't see how he will rack 100+ again with Nicks across form him. Nicks was explosive, far from a possession type WR(EBF IIRC)...I have no problem comparing what i saw out of him to a guy like TO. Can take a short or intermediate pass and turn it into 6 before the blink of an eye. He's dangerous in the open field and god help the DBs trying to bring this guy down cause most Cornerbacks are gonna whiff, he's simply too strong. This guy looked like he was trying to find contact at times last year. Fearless would be one of th emany adjectives I might use to describe him. I am very eager to see what he does in year 2...but almost 800 yds and 6 Tds on a team that isn't known as a pass happy bunch, yeah I think this guy has mad skills. But I'll tell you this, you put up a thread for two WRs, Smith/Nicks and ask the SP who they feel is more talented and I think Nicks would win...I could be wrong but I think Nicks would win. Obviously you are pretty high on Steve Smith this season. Do you feel he can duplicate his numbers from last year?

Nicks, and even Crabtree, are pretty physical players. But in contrast, the two most physical WRs out of this bunch are Britt and, yes, drum-roll please........Harvin! I woulld be very surprised if Harvin didn't break more tackles than either Nicks or Crabtree, probably beat 'em both combined. The erroneous perception of this kid (Harvin) will soon get its lid blown off as I have a feeling he will be involved in the running game even moreso than last year, and thus will truly display how physical of a player he is. I think it was more subtle last season, but I honestly believe he's much more difficult to tackle than Nicks or Crabtree. And Britt is just a monster physically compared to all of these guys.....I think Nicks and Crabtree offer more physicality (than Harvin or Maclin) in their ability to catch in traffic, I'll give them that edge, but not after the catch physicality over Percy.......nuhhh-uhhhhh!

 

[BeTheMatch]

Percy is an absolute beast after the catch. I've never seen a guy bounce off so many would-be tacklers.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.

let me ask you a few questions:

1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)

2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

You realize that Nicks was injured during camp and missed a bunch of it, right?

 

[loose circuits]

they weren't gonna bench Amani Toomer or Plaxico...that was also a much more run heavy offense than what the Giants have today. 14 for 152 put him 7th in the league in receptions for the 2007 playoffs. If extrapolated to a 16 game season that would have meant 52 for 600 which would have been close to what Nicks produced his rookie season. So when healthy during their rookie seasons, their production was basically the same.

let me ask you a few questions:

1) can a wide receiver get catches when he doesn't see the field? (5 games some of which he barely played)

2) does injury during camp and early in the season hold a rookie WR back when he can't get timing and learn the offense? Does this mean that player is less talented?3) Is it fair to compare an injured WR stats to a healthy WR?

You realize that Nicks was injured during camp and missed a bunch of it, right?

Smith had a concussion, then fractured his shoulder blade, then when he was coming back from that screwed up his hamstring, came back to early and screwed it up some more. It was a lost year for Smith however you look at it. Are you arguing that Smith's rookie seasons should be used for stat comparisons? Throughout all that the Giants never put him on IR and they were better off in the playoffs because of itNicks missed a few days with a hamstring injury, then a few weeks with a foot sprain, then some practices here and there with some dings. hardly compares...and does not justify comparing their stats in any meaningful way