WRs in 2010 from the 2009 class and their outlook this year (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

3. Nicks - Like a less perfect version of Crabtree. Good possession WR who can sneak it downfield on occasion. In their system there's no reason why he can't put up solid WR2 numbers next season. He's a very trendy player right now and his price tag is sky high. He may be slightly overrated ala Dwayne Bowe.

Way too explosive to be labeled as a possession WR, swing and a miss here.

I disagree. Physically he's more along the lines of a Muhammad/Braylon type of player than a true deep threat. He ran a 4.51 at the combine. That's adequate speed for a big receiver, but it doesn't qualify as explosive. I like Nicks. I had him ranked pretty high at this time last year. I like what he did as a rookie. On the other hand, I think he has gone from being mildly underrated to mildly overrated in a single season. It seems like everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. He's going very early in all of my drafts and netting big value in trades. Having seen numerous young WRs prematurely anointed as superstars before they earned it (Rod Gardner, Koren Robinson, Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie), I'm always a little bit wary when a high profile young WR rockets up the rankings. That applies to all of these top 5 2009 rookie WRs. No doubt there's some talent in this group and probably 2-3 of these guys will have very nice careers, but there's not much margin for error when they're going WR 10-20 in startups.

 

[BeTheMatch]

3. Nicks - Like a less perfect version of Crabtree. Good possession WR who can sneak it downfield on occasion. In their system there's no reason why he can't put up solid WR2 numbers next season. He's a very trendy player right now and his price tag is sky high. He may be slightly overrated ala Dwayne Bowe.

Way too explosive to be labeled as a possession WR, swing and a miss here.

I disagree. Physically he's more along the lines of a Muhammad/Braylon type of player than a true deep threat. He ran a 4.51 at the combine. That's adequate speed for a big receiver, but it doesn't qualify as explosive. I like Nicks. I had him ranked pretty high at this time last year. I like what he did as a rookie. On the other hand, I think he has gone from being mildly underrated to mildly overrated in a single season. It seems like everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. He's going very early in all of my drafts and netting big value in trades.

Having seen numerous young WRs prematurely anointed as superstars before they earned it (Rod Gardner, Koren Robinson, Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie), I'm always a little bit wary when a high profile young WR rockets up the rankings. That applies to all of these top 5 2009 rookie WRs. No doubt there's some talent in this group and probably 2-3 of these guys will have very nice careers, but there's not much margin for error when they're going WR 10-20 in startups.

That's also a good way to miss out on a young stud while you can still get him. Guys bust all the time, that's the nature of the game. But if you're a believer, I don't think you should avoid going and getting someone just because it might not work out.

 

[EBF]

That's also a good way to miss out on a young stud while you can still get him. Guys bust all the time, that's the nature of the game. But if you're a believer, I don't think you should avoid going and getting someone just because it might not work out.

Yep, and I never said people shouldn't pay a premium for elite young players. I do it all the time. Having said that, I see the same thing happen every season. A cluster of young players will show some flashes of potential and their value will immediately surge to ridiculous heights under the assumption that they're superstars. Some guys justify the hype. Others don't. If you're going to roll the dice, you'd better be pretty certain in your judgment. I've been doing this long enough to see countless owners overpay for the likes of Kevin Jones, Michael Bennett, Rod Gardner, William Green, Koren Robinson, Ashley Lelie, Donte Stallworth, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Kevan Barlow, and Laurence Maroney. I've done it myself. The lesson I learned is that youth is only valuable when paired with elite talent. Looking at Crab/Harvin/Nicks/Britt/Maclin, I'd venture to guess that they're not all elite talents. There's probably a Stallworth or Gardner in there somewhere. Just a dose of reality amidst the overwhelming love this offseason for Moreno/Wells/McCoy/Greene/Felix/Crabtree/Nicks/Harvin/Maclin/Britt.

 

[gianmarco]

Here's my only issue with Nicks. As EBF pointed out, I feel he might be slightly overrated. Granted, he looked great catching the ball last year. But, what seems to be overlooked is WHEN he caught the ball. A lot of the big play #'s he put up were late in the games once they were already decided. I went and pulled up his split stats for 2009.

He finished the year with 47/790/6 (pretty solid #'s for a rookie).

But:

--21 of the 47 catches came in the 4th qtr (45%)

--28 of the 47 catches came when they were either trailing big or leading big (60%) as well as 3 of this TDs (50%)

--He had only 4 catches in the RZ. The vast majority of his catches (30) came from the Giants side of the field and a large % of them came on 1st down.

In fact, he had 2 big games last year. The 1st was in week 6 vs. New Orleans where he had 5/114/1. Both big plays (58 and 37 yds) came in the 4th qtr when down by 28 pts. The other came in week 14 against Philly and was mostly the result of one big play (68 yds) on a 3rd and 4 play. It's not to take it away, but beyond that, he never broke 100 yds and most of his work came as a WR3, late in games, mostly when games were clearly decided for either team.

I guess I just want to see him do this more when he's facing either the #1 or #2 CB and when the game is actually on the line. Without being a big RZ threat (they essentially never used him there) to this point, I don't know if his continued long TDs are sustainable (see DeSean).

I like the guy but I think he still has plenty to prove.

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

They did try and work Nicks into the O, just like with most of these guys aside from Crabtree.

He missed valuable time with the injury early and had to catch up during the season. Manninham played well in his

own right so there was no need to rush Nicks in there. But when Mario started to drop passes and make some bad decision

they started to work Nicks in more and more, Some games i saw they were actually trying to force the ball to him. He made some big plays

as well as missing some easy catchable balls as well.

IMO they wanted to lean on him like they have done with Plax in the past. He offers big play ability and nice open field running. I think more of the same is to come

and with another offseason to work with Eli to get a better graps on things i think he will be more productive similar to what we was used to with Plax. I also dont see

Smith as a bad option...I think he still produces very highly, not 100 rec's but more in the 80-85 range. And thats still very good.

 

[39407]

Nicks appeared in 14 games, with 6 starts. 47 catches/790 yds/6 TDs. 32 first downs, five 40+ yd catches, thirteen 20+ yd catches.

But most importantly he passes the eyeball test, I'm a firm believer that this kid will be a feature in this league for a long time. I do own him in two dynasty leagues, "reached" for him in my rookie drafts last year. So far I'm not disappointed..

ETA: Who cares about combine times anyway? Thats the Al Davis way of doing business.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For those saying Nicks is not fast...TO isn't fast either but he's explosive, and Nicks is in that same vein. Another poster said the eyeball test and I agree. I know what I saw and I liked most of what I saw and wished I had gotten Nicks last year.

Explosive to me is a guy that can take a 5 or 10 yd play and turn it upfield quick and make it a 40 or 50 yard play possibly scoring. TO used to do a lot of that and Nicks reminds me of him some.

No one likes Massaquoi?

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

For those saying Nicks is not fast...TO isn't fast either but he's explosive, and Nicks is in that same vein. Another poster said the eyeball test and I agree. I know what I saw and I liked most of what I saw and wished I had gotten Nicks last year. Explosive to me is a guy that can take a 5 or 10 yd play and turn it upfield quick and make it a 40 or 50 yard play possibly scoring. TO used to do a lot of that and Nicks reminds me of him some. No one likes Massaquoi?

Didnt see enough of MM to get a good feel on him. He does have the situation working in his favor though. And had some big games. From a value standpoint he is alot lot cheaper to get if you liked him compared to the big 5 rookies from last year. Also back to Nicks, didnt he have a big preseason game to get everyone all giddy over him? He was the main wr i wanted after crabtree in the rookie drafts last year and i got him in a few. But i thought i remember him doing well early preseason/tc making big plays and then getting hurt and having to play catchup to starting the year. Good luck landing him, i been trying from a few owners that have him in leagues i dont and most holding tight on him.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I don't want to single one person out but FUBAR and a few others are talking about Smith. Let me share my POV and reasoning and then maybe you'll understand why I am high on Nicks.

Steve Smith: Rookie year he had 8 catches for 63 yds.

Mario Manham: Rookie year he had 4 catches

Hakeem Nicks: Rookie year he posts 47/790/6Tds

I show you that because Coughlin doesn't usually let rookies walk on and start. Most couldn't do it anyways and he did shield nicks form starting quite a bit during the year and Nicks was so good he played his way on to the field a lot of the time. I understand Plax being gone had an impact here but look at the breakdown in targets...

Smith: 160...10 a game!!!

Manningham: 99

Nicks: 75

About 335 targets, adn this year I can assure you that nicks is going to get more targets. I would put him at roughly 110-125 targets this season...now start adding his numbers up and I think I am being conservative for targets. MM is not going to sniff 100 balls this year, and SMith is going to come off 10 a game as an avg...plus Smith only produced 11.5 ypc and 7 Tds out of 107 receptions so he is not big play guy. Slide Smith down to 80 catches and where does he really fall in these drafts? I have seen him taken in the 2nd round of some Survivor drafts going on right now, that's crazy.

Please don't shoot the messenger guys

Take a minute and allow some of this to sink in a second and tell me where I am way off and why...thanks.

Smith was hurt most of his rookie season or he would have been handling the slot like he did in the playoffs that year

Seriously? You're gonna unravel all that with a simple "Smith was hurt" as a rookie. Even if he wasn't hurt he was pretty average when he was on the field...and he only had 8 catches that year, c'mon now. And I looked up his rookie playoff run...3/30, 4/40, 2/25...not exactly ripping holes thru defenses. In fact defenses are not afrais of Steve Smith...his career avg is in the 10 yard range, he's TJ Housh and on another team I'm not sure Smith would stand out that much.

That was my thought as well. Smith = Housh and Nicks = Ocho. That's how I see it ultimately panning out. That's not bad for Smith.It's not going to surprise me if Smith catches more balls than Nicks or scores more fantasy wise for this season but I think by 2011 Nicks is going to be the better fantasy option. Sure Smith has Eli's confidence. But it's not like Eli can only have confidence in one guy. Nicks earned some respect last year and should continue to do so in 2010. I think his talent ceiling is higher than Smith's and once he learns more of the craft, he's going to command a larger share of the looks. Nicks can get better at route running, but I don't see Smith getting better at the big play or becoming dangerous after the catch.

 

[BeTheMatch]

That's also a good way to miss out on a young stud while you can still get him. Guys bust all the time, that's the nature of the game. But if you're a believer, I don't think you should avoid going and getting someone just because it might not work out.

Yep, and I never said people shouldn't pay a premium for elite young players. I do it all the time. Having said that, I see the same thing happen every season. A cluster of young players will show some flashes of potential and their value will immediately surge to ridiculous heights under the assumption that they're superstars. Some guys justify the hype. Others don't. If you're going to roll the dice, you'd better be pretty certain in your judgment. I've been doing this long enough to see countless owners overpay for the likes of Kevin Jones, Michael Bennett, Rod Gardner, William Green, Koren Robinson, Ashley Lelie, Donte Stallworth, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Kevan Barlow, and Laurence Maroney. I've done it myself. The lesson I learned is that youth is only valuable when paired with elite talent. Looking at Crab/Harvin/Nicks/Britt/Maclin, I'd venture to guess that they're not all elite talents. There's probably a Stallworth or Gardner in there somewhere. Just a dose of reality amidst the overwhelming love this offseason for Moreno/Wells/McCoy/Greene/Felix/Crabtree/Nicks/Harvin/Maclin/Britt.

I agree that not all will pan out. I just happen to be in the camp that is very confident that Crabtree and Nicks will pan out long-term, and Harvin is right behind them. I'm not nearly as sold on Maclin and Britt.