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Your "do not draft list" (1 Viewer)

Mixon. Frank Gore.Luck. ty hilton.NE rb's. adp.sammy watkins. i. crowell. ertz.ebron. wentz.any and all philly wrs including alshon. obj. any giants rb.eli. any lions players. any rams players. any cards players except DJ. any jags player.mccaffrey. cj anderson. carlos hyde.any bills players. all of these teams except Az have lesser offenses with low quality qb play bottom feeders in time of possession low yardage and td totals and scoring. lions might be competent on offense but they have too many moving parts its this guy one week that one the next.no consistent fantasy scoring .not a stafford fan i'd never draft him theres far more talent available at the QB position in fantasy drafts.mccoy is old and worn down.

mixon wont sniff 120 carries. neither will mccaffrey. luck will not play this season. ty hilton  wont amount to a hill of beans with tolzien at qb. same with gore. 

i probably wont draft melvin gordon either i dont trust the l.a. offensive line theyve lost too many pieces to injury this year. toughest schedule early on.no thanks.  

 
Tanner9919 said:
Mixon. Frank Gore.Luck. ty hilton.NE rb's. adp.sammy watkins. i. crowell. ertz.ebron. wentz.any and all philly wrs including alshon. obj. any giants rb.eli. any lions players. any rams players. any cards players except DJ. any jags player.mccaffrey. cj anderson. carlos hyde.any bills players. all of these teams except Az have lesser offenses with low quality qb play bottom feeders in time of possession low yardage and td totals and scoring. lions might be competent on offense but they have too many moving parts its this guy one week that one the next.no consistent fantasy scoring .not a stafford fan i'd never draft him theres far more talent available at the QB position in fantasy drafts.mccoy is old and worn down.

mixon wont sniff 120 carries. neither will mccaffrey. luck will not play this season. ty hilton  wont amount to a hill of beans with tolzien at qb. same with gore. 

i probably wont draft melvin gordon either i dont trust the l.a. offensive line theyve lost too many pieces to injury this year. toughest schedule early on.no thanks.  
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Wow,  I think me and you think alike.  The only difference is,  I do like Golden Tate in a PPR near his ADP and also like Marvin Jones.  

 
I'll bite..

Melvin Gordon - I think he gets a bad rap for not being able to break 4ypc in his first two years but it's not for a lack of trying. He picks up yards after contact, it's just that his OL is ####. It's been #### and it's going to continue to be ####. It scares me to the point where I can't draft him.

Doug Baldwin - My WR1 can't be looking at 110-120 targets a season. It leads to inconsistency, which is why it shouldn't surprise anyone that Baldwin was a WR4 or worse 44% of the time (7 games) last year. In 2015, he was a WR4 or worse 50% of the time(8 games). I need consistency from my WR1.

Larry Fitz - I'm being biased here. I guess I'm an ageist? When I look at what I can expect from ARI's passing offense from a volume perspective and the talent around Fitz, I believe there's no possible way he sees less than 140 targets this year. It's literally impossible if he's healthy. He'll likely catch 100 balls too. The thing is, I don't want to be the one caught holding him when he inevitabley falls off a cliff. It's why I've passed on Gore for what feels like a decade now.

Alshon Jefferey - I #### you not this guy has injured himself in practice 7 times during his time in the league. His brain wants to play football, his body doesn't.

Jordan Reed - See Alshon Jeffery.

Allen Robinson - Bortles

Golden Tate - Same as Baldwin yet he sees more volume, so it's actually perplexing. Tate was a WR4 or worse 56% of the time last year. That's 9 games that he just #### you. Plus, with Abdullah/Riddick healthy he'll likely lose some of his underneath target share.

Hilton - Luck's injury scares me

CMC - I love the player but this solely has to do with his ADP. It's like drafting Abdullah in the 3rd, it makes no sense.

Fournette - Foot, Jags, Bot

Landry - He needs volume to produce, he's going to see less volume

 
SameSongNDance said:
I'll bite..

Golden Tate - Same as Baldwin yet he sees more volume, so it's actually perplexing. Tate was a WR4 or worse 56% of the time last year. That's 9 games that he just #### you. Plus, with Abdullah/Riddick healthy he'll likely lose some of his underneath target share.
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Great list. I'm curious about this one, though. Seems with healthy RB's, resurgent Jones and adding Golladay it would open things up even more for Tate.

Plus Detroit has a porous defense and tough schedule so I could see them playing from behind a lot. Abandon running game like they always do and dink and dunk trying to catch up. I see 90/1000/5-6 for Tate without too much difficulty.

 
PhantomJB said:
Great list. I'm curious about this one, though. Seems with healthy RB's, resurgent Jones and adding Golladay it would open things up even more for Tate.

Plus Detroit has a porous defense and tough schedule so I could see them playing from behind a lot. Abandon running game like they always do and dink and dunk trying to catch up. I see 90/1000/5-6 for Tate without too much difficulty.
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I have him projected for 92/1010/6 so I'm right on board with you. He's my WR23.

On the surface that looks great, it's just how he does it that is so frustrating. He will win you weeks and he will lose you weeks, but I suppose it's more palatable when he's your WR3. It hurts more when it's your WR1 ####ting the bed like Baldwin. Amari Cooper is another guy whose been objectively inconsistent over the last two years. If I can find someone who I think will average similar PPG but more consistently, I'd rather just draft them.

Chaka said:
Christian McCaffrey.
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Yes

 
SameSongNDance said:
I have him projected for 92/1010/6 so I'm right on board with you. He's my WR23.

On the surface that looks great, it's just how he does it that is so frustrating. He will win you weeks and he will lose you weeks, but I suppose it's more palatable when he's your WR3. It hurts more when it's your WR1 ####ting the bed like Baldwin. Amari Cooper is another guy whose been objectively inconsistent over the last two years. If I can find someone who I think will average similar PPG but more consistently, I'd rather just draft them.

Yes
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Agreed. The only way I'd draft him is as a WR3 that slips through the cracks so hopefully the volatility would be less frustrating.

Although maybe I'm just numb to frustration having been a lifelong Lions fan...

 
 This is always in interesting subject for me, as many of my "do not draft" guys are injury related, but I have a surprise or two this year on my list.

Just a few off the top of my head -

  Aaron Rodgers - When the reports came out early this summer that he was training offseason with someone not affiliated with the Packers, (I remember reading it was someone close to the entertainment industry, such as a trainer to several musicians and actors) I knew I wanted no part of him.

But I want to be fair and say I  wasn't going to take Rodgers anyway. The draft investment is simply too much. I am never again taking a QB in the first 2 rounds .           I think it came out over the summer along with his split with Munn, that he was leaning towards living a "pop culture/actor celebrity lifestyle". Plus all reports I happened to skim across said he is distancing himself from the majority of his family. Thats been hinted at the last few years, and some say it coincided with his relationship to Munn. The whole thing sounded a bit odd, and I really want no part of it.

All that aside, thats just MORE reasons to steer clear of him.  He has had injuries a few times too. Not saying there is a pattern there, just more and more reasons not to want to draft him.

Any New England RB - I posted more about this in a few spots here. Say everything you want about how the Pats score all these rushing TDs. The true number of Pats backs that could touch the ball at any given time is a long one. Mike Gillislee, Rex Burkhead,Dion Lewis, D.J. Foster, Brandon Bolden, James Develin,  and the one everyone seems to forget this preseason, Super Bowl star James White all can get touches. If you think you can discern where the best "value is" or who is the one to take a chance on, go right ahead. I will focus my time and energy on a backfield that is easier to decipher. Just don't come back here and ##### to me when Belichik  resurrects a 40 year old Sammy Morris  and gives him a couple punch-in TDs like he did a few years ago late season. If you pick the right one and get good production here and there this season, congratulations!  The lottery has winners every week too.

TY Hilton -  Love the talent. No disputing that, but the lack of touchdowns for his career is a slight red flag. Then we have Luck's health in question, and he may well be sluggish for 3-5 weeks, even if he does start week 1, which I doubt. He is going somewhere in the neighborhood of WR 16, which with the Luck health situation, I am not interested. If he were to drop several rounds, possibly, but I doubt it happens in the next week. I don't know about you, but I don't want any of my star wideouts catching passes from the likes of Scott Tolzien, even if its only for 2-3 weeks.

 Jarvis Landry - As soon as Tannehill went down, in my opinion so did Landry. Strike one. Just in the last 24 hours news has come out of an "incident" with Landry and his  girlfriend. Thats another strike.  He has never been a big touchdown guy, theres another strike.  Oh, let us bring in Jay Cutler, who tends to LOCK ON to one WR, often the deep threat, and we all know Landry is not the deep threat there. (DeVante Parker breakout anyone???) That's another strike.  Also there has been rumors of him actually being traded away too.(even though they were publicly refuted by the organization)  That's another strike. How many strikes do you need?

 Golden Tate -  The main issue I have with Tate, is he has often been called a "cry baby" or "malcontent" for teams, especially when he is not getting force fed the ball. He was forced to sit the bench a couple of times 2 years ago on the Lions for "undisclosed reasons" even though he was perfectly healthy. He seems to disappear at times, often for several weeks, then BOOM he is back.  Everyone was talking about what a great run he had late last year, and I agree.... he did well late season. But the question is where was he the first 5 weeks last year? My fantasy teams were playing the first 5 weeks....weren't yours???  Jokes aside, he is too "boom or bust" for me, and the long dry stretches he often has don't entice me either.

 Terrelle Pryor - As a Cleveland fan, I watched him last year. I had my doubts, just like most of us. Whenever someone switches positions in the NFL, it usually is met with "not so stellar" results, barring the occasional sparkler, which Pryor seems to be. Week after week there for a stretch he seemed to be on fire, and a true centerpiece of that offense. The fact that he did it with various QBs (with marginal to fair talent) was even more impressive.  There are two main issues for me and Pryor, and thats A- he is going to a new offense. The old one was almost "slapped together around him" last year. B- Its Kirk Cousins.  Cousins by most accounts had a great year last year, but guess what... THAT offense is basically built around Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder.  Jordan Reed certainly isn't the bastion of health, but when he is on the field, he is a target hog. The one I most liked there was Jamison Crowder. He seemed to really have a strong rapport with Cousins. If I wanted a more dependable option there, it would likely be Crowder.  Point is, I think Pryor is a real gamble.....possibly a good one. I am pretty sure he won't just be a complete bust, but I can see many scenarios where he puts up "solid, but not flashy" numbers. Jordan Reeds health could be a real key to how Pryor does this year. I like the upside of Pryor, but I can't see paying his draft price.  Of anyone on this list, he would be the one I might cave in and get, in the right spots. (primarily as my WR3, if I could swing it)

 Gronk AND/OR Jordan Reed - This is mostly health related.  Gronk is a game changer, but his list of injuries is simply too much to ignore.  Edelman is now down, but they didn't bring in Cooks to ride the pine either. Gronk (when healthy) will always get his targets, I get it. But again, his health plus the overwhelming cost of actually acquiring him is just too much. I am just not interested.

Jordan Reed is a similar case, as he has had more concussions and head injuries than most anyone in the NFL that I can recall offhand. I think he has had 6 concussions over the years, I think I read that somewhere. Now he is having a foot issue also. One thing in his favor this year, is he has slid some in drafts. Its a much more appealing draft spot than Gronk,  like roughly 2-3 rounds later. That sounds much more appetizing than Gronk in late round 1 or round 2.

But there is one more thing against Reed..... you ever hear of this Terrelle Pryor guy? Look above. Injury issues + a still fairly strong draft price + the addition of Terrelle Pryor = I am not interested.

 TZM

 

 
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At current ADPs

Ty Montgomery

Demarco Murray

Deandre Hopkins

Russel Wilson

Marshawn Lynch

Dalvin Cook

Tevin Coleman

Amari Cooper

 
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TripItUp said:
At current ADPs

Ty Montgomery

Demarco Murray

Deandre Hopkins

Russel Wilson

Marshawn Lynch

Dalvin Cook

Tevin Coleman

Amari Cooper
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Good list, although I did take Hopkins in the mid 4th in my last 12 teamer. Thought he was good value there.

 
After taking Keenan Allen the last two years I said "never again!" Then I drafted him in 2 leagues....

Hard to say I wouldn't draft a guy because everyone has their price. Starters like gore and west aren't part of my plan, but plans change during the draft. ADP drives me away from older rbs like lynch and Murray (with Henry earning more snaps) and the young guys who are more of a crap shoot (fournette/hunt/cmc/mixon, Cook is perhaps priced right). 

 
Snorkelson said:
After taking Keenan Allen the last two years I said "never again!" Then I drafted him in 2 leagues....

Hard to say I wouldn't draft a guy because everyone has their price. Starters like gore and west aren't part of my plan, but plans change during the draft. ADP drives me away from older rbs like lynch and Murray (with Henry earning more snaps) and the young guys who are more of a crap shoot (fournette/hunt/cmc/mixon, Cook is perhaps priced right). 
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I will never draft Keenan Allen, since he is such an injury risk. That combined with the plethora of targets there on the Chargers now, I just don't see many scenarios where I would take him really. I suppose if I could get him as my WR3 somewhere then *possibly*.  But in my leagues thats just so unlikely to happen. (our leagues are start 3WRs, so thats playable weekly  in ours, not just a bench option)

Like you said, its always about price.  But I am also strong enough to have a line on some players and some scenarios that I won't cross, and I won't touch certain ones. Like I mentioned above, Rob Gronkowski is one. Between injuries + draft investment,  that just doesn't equate to anything I want to take on board.

 TZM

 
In the 5th rd (1/2/3/1/1/1/1flx) in both leagues I took Allen as my wr3. Those injuries were kind of freak imo, not like a "fournette foot." I kind of agree with the target comment but with mike Williams missing all this time makes me less nervous. Allen has looked good, benji is no more than a 2/80/1 dart, t Williams is solid but not going to get the same target share he had last year. And Henry/gates will get theirs, but I still see Allen as the #1 with a good qb with a solid offense around him. Good supporting cast just means defense can't focus on him. Jordy Nelson has been injured and bounced back. 

As far as gronk is concerned, I'm encouraged by his adapting a new lifestyle, I'll still take the plunge in rd 2 this year but if he is limited by injuries again he won't be the rd 2 uber difference maker he will be if he's healthy. 

I have a hard time drafting rb in the first 2-3 rds if I can't get the top guys. Higher chance of injury than to the top WRs, even qb. Give me stud WRs and I'll find some rbs later and on the ww.

 
Snorkelson said:
In the 5th rd (1/2/3/1/1/1/1flx) in both leagues I took Allen as my wr3. Those injuries were kind of freak imo, not like a "fournette foot." I kind of agree with the target comment but with mike Williams missing all this time makes me less nervous. Allen has looked good, benji is no more than a 2/80/1 dart, t Williams is solid but not going to get the same target share he had last year. And Henry/gates will get theirs, but I still see Allen as the #1 with a good qb with a solid offense around him. Good supporting cast just means defense can't focus on him. Jordy Nelson has been injured and bounced back. 

As far as gronk is concerned, I'm encouraged by his adapting a new lifestyle, I'll still take the plunge in rd 2 this year but if he is limited by injuries again he won't be the rd 2 uber difference maker he will be if he's healthy. 

I have a hard time drafting rb in the first 2-3 rds if I can't get the top guys. Higher chance of injury than to the top WRs, even qb. Give me stud WRs and I'll find some rbs later and on the ww.
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Did a draft last week that I can start 3 wr.  PPR

Had second pick

Bell

Dez

Cooks

Allen

Olsen

I was jumping up and down for Allen as my third wr.  Now my rb2 is straight garbage.  West/Lacy/riddick/Stewart

But I will make it work.  This team should rock.  The only reason I took a RB in round one is cause it's bell.

 
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SameSongNDance said:
Larry Fitz - I'm being biased here. I guess I'm an ageist? When I look at what I can expect from ARI's passing offense from a volume perspective and the talent around Fitz, I believe there's no possible way he sees less than 140 targets this year. It's literally impossible if he's healthy. He'll likely catch 100 balls too. The thing is, I don't want to be the one caught holding him when he inevitabley falls off a cliff. It's why I've passed on Gore for what feels like a decade now.
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SSND how many times does Fitzgerald have to prove how great he is? How many years of passing on a solid player simply because eventually.. some year he will fall off?

140 targets 100 receptions will not draft  :confused:

 
Biabreakable said:
SSND how many times does Fitzgerald have to prove how great he is? How many years of passing on a solid player simply because eventually.. some year he will fall off?

140 targets 100 receptions will not draft  :confused:
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yeah and him moving to the slot helped him and no other great wrs on the team.  im happy with him as my wr2 in one league.  guys a beast

 
All of these players have flaws if you spend enough time to find out what they are. Doesn't mean they won't be good. I could talk myself out of drafting just about anyone (expect maybe Fitzgerald).

But when it comes down to it I can find good qualities in all of these players as well and at some point they are going to look like the best option or one of many possible options.

Well except maybe guys like Matt Jones.

 
need2know said:
right.  but even with garbage at qb they would probably lock onto him even more
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He actually did ok with Stanton one game last year that I recall.

I looked at the history of that however and it wasn't kind to Fitzgerald when Palmer was out. I think Fitz was hurt himself for part of those games though.

It is a reasonable idea you have there, I thought the same thing, but when looking at the numbers, it definitely affected him in a negative way.

 
Biabreakable said:
He actually did ok with Stanton one game last year that I recall.

I looked at the history of that however and it wasn't kind to Fitzgerald when Palmer was out. I think Fitz was hurt himself for part of those games though.

It is a reasonable idea you have there, I thought the same thing, but when looking at the numbers, it definitely affected him in a negative way.
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shhh.  dont interrupt my theories with facts

 
Godsbrother said:
Mark Ingram

LaMarr Miller

Marvin Jones

Jay Cutler

Andrew Luck

Any RB from NE
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Jones is being drafted sooooo late, why not take him as your wr 5/6? I also spent a rd 21 pick on dion Lewis, figured why the heck not? Won't argue with the rest of the list. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
Mixon. Frank Gore.Luck. ty hilton.NE rb's. adp.sammy watkins. i. crowell. ertz.ebron. wentz.any and all philly wrs including alshon. obj. any giants rb.eli. any lions players. any rams players. any cards players except DJ. any jags player.mccaffrey. cj anderson. carlos hyde.any bills players. all of these teams except Az have lesser offenses with low quality qb play bottom feeders in time of possession low yardage and td totals and scoring. lions might be competent on offense but they have too many moving parts its this guy one week that one the next.no consistent fantasy scoring .not a stafford fan i'd never draft him theres far more talent available at the QB position in fantasy drafts.mccoy is old and worn down.

mixon wont sniff 120 carries. neither will mccaffrey. luck will not play this season. ty hilton  wont amount to a hill of beans with tolzien at qb. same with gore. 

i probably wont draft melvin gordon either i dont trust the l.a. offensive line theyve lost too many pieces to injury this year. toughest schedule early on.no thanks.  
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Maybe you should list the players you WILL draft.  That list would probably be shorter.

 
just read "the perfect draft"-PPR-12 teams from Draft Sharks from 2016.   Roughly 1/2 of the guys they recommended in the 1st six rounds were duds.  I think it important to remember that we are going to be wrong a lot of the time.

 
Snorkelson said:
Jones is being drafted sooooo late, why not take him as your wr 5/6? I also spent a rd 21 pick on dion Lewis, figured why the heck not? Won't argue with the rest of the list. 
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I guess so.  I just got burned by him last year.. Started off strong and then completely disappeared.

 
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