Your first round pick CAN win you the championship (1 Viewer)

[Canowupass]

I think we can put to rest the old adage that "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it."

The decision to take Tomlinson over Larry Johnson probably won a lot of championships last night.

In most of the leagues I've played in over the last few years, the team that has THAT GUY--the Marshall Faulk or Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson or whoever is the guy blowing up that year--wins it all. Not always, but often. Probably more than half the time. The rest of your team can be decidedly ho-hum because having that guy that goes for 40 points a game in the playoffs will make up for it.

 

[perry147]

It depends on the league - if it is a 8-10 team league or a smaller starting lineup then LT would give someone a huge advantage.

In one league the team with LT is going to be playing for the championship next week and in another the LT owner did not make the playoffs.

 

[Slider]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm in 3 Super Bowls out of 5 leagues (all FBGs), and I have LT2 in two of them. The other one I have LJ and Steven Jackson. All 3 leagues are 12 team dynasty leagues.

 

[Warpig]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

In reply to the original poster...The guy that had LT had a mediocre season yet was the highest scoring team. He didn't even make the playoffs. Other than LT he had a decent roster.The LJ owner is going to the championship game in my 12 team league with the likes of Delhomme at qb, Travis Henry as his RB#2, and middle of the road WR's.It's all luck man.

 

[babehound37]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

What about the year Peyton Manning ste the TD record. I think just about everybody won that had him.

 

[bolldpt]

Disagree, LJ owner beat LT owner this week in my 10 team league.

I own Gore and SJ and will play LJ owner for the super bowl next week.

 

[Gaddis]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

What about the year Peyton Manning ste the TD record. I think just about everybody won that had him.

A guy in my dynasty league has had Manning and LT for the last five years. He won the championship during Manning's record breaking year and he's on his way to winning it again this year. He can't draft very well, but when you're getting 35 points/week from one player, it absolutely changes everything. The guy is about to win his 10 straight game after starting 1-4.

 

[pimptastic69]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

I'm in my Super Bowl despite having no picks in rounds 2,3 and 4. I traded those picks for another owner's #3 overall (SA) to go with my #8 overall pick (Tiki). Through the rest of my draft and a bunch of trades, I ended up with: PalmerSAWestbrookA. GreenHoushM. HarrisonL. ColesB. WatsonVinetieriChargersI tied for the best record in the league at 11-2.

 

[Tarencil]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

That's me. In our 10-team league, I drafted first and picked LJ and then followed a very similar draft strategy to the guy who picked third and got LT. We both drafted two WRs next (I got Holt/Fitz, he got Chad/Randy), then a RB2 (I got Dunn, he got Droughns) in the fourth. I ended up trading him Dunn for Chad after two weeks (other players were also involved) since I had grabbed Gore in the 6th. We both took recovering-from-injury QBs (I got Carson, he got Daunte). He made the playoffs but got bounced in the first round, and I won the scoring title and am headed to the championship game.

 

[Warpig]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

I'm in my Super Bowl despite having no picks in rounds 2,3 and 4. I traded those picks for another owner's #3 overall (SA) to go with my #8 overall pick (Tiki). Through the rest of my draft and a bunch of trades, I ended up with: PalmerSAWestbrookA. GreenHoushM. HarrisonL. ColesB. WatsonVinetieriChargersI tied for the best record in the league at 11-2.

Wow! Congrats for making it to the championship game in your league...but I can't help but look at your roster and think it's "pedestrian" at best. Lots of underachievers.Palmer hasn't been up to snuff. (I have in him in one league)SA - a big bust this yearWestbrook - solid when he's healthyA. Green - inconsistent at best. Little contribution.Housh - solidHarrison - down year, but decent contributions.Coles - GoodWatson - overhyped and didn't perform up to preseason expectationsVinatieri - solidChargers - I believe the #2 or #3 scoring defense.Must be alot of parity in your league. (as was the case in most leagues this year)

 

[Sclaffer]

The guy who drafted LT lost this week in the semifinals (12-1 in the regular season.) The guy who drafted LJ lost in the 1st round of the playoffs.

The two Super Bowl teams drafted 6th (Rudi Johnson/Willis McGahee) and 9th (Steven Jackson/Willie Parker) , in a 10 team redraft league.

 

[kutta]

I think a better discussion would be not if the LT owner is better off than the LJ owner, but if the LJ and LT owners are better off than all the other owners. I most leagues I'm in, the LJ and LT owners had the highest scoring teams and at least made the playoffs. I beat the LJ owner two weeks ago, and the LT owner this week, but I have Stephen Jackson and Willie Parker.

Those first couple draft picks really make a difference.

 

[fsufan]

I have LT but if the rest of your team(holt, T. bell, gates, driver) ####s the tank then it is hard to win.

I am down 5 and have palmer but he has harrison and wayne

 

[PsychoMan]

I have LT but if the rest of your team(holt, T. bell, gates, driver) ####s the tank then it is hard to win.I am down 5 and have palmer but he has harrison and wayne

Imagine if you DIDNT have LT, and had the same chance of your other players having a bad game at the same time. Your chances of winning would be SO MUCH LESS.Bottom line is if you have LT, your chances of winning a league this year are easily 2x anyone else (given you weren't a moron with the way you managed your team during the yr). The LT owner in my league started McNair this week and still is going to pull out a 2 point playoff win. Rediculous.

 

[SteelerMurf]

R. Brown

Jordan

Edge

S. Alexander

Caddy

Manning (in some leagues)

Any Wr (in some leagues)

Those owners will have a great argument that you can lose your league with your first round pick.

 

[Wu-banger]

Depends how bad you missed in the latter rounds ... LT alone will not win you jack.

I took Caddy in one league in the first round (9th pick/ 12 teams)... but followed it up with #85 , Palmer, Wayne, Kev Jones and Gore... Won my division. Still alive in the playoffs going into tonight.

Beat the LT owner 3 times this year, including the playoffs.

 

[dparker713]

In standard scoring, LT2 is on pace for the highest single season points total EVER. Expecting a performance like this ever again is not exactly something I'd want to do.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Who wins championships in week 15?

 

[The Big Donkey]

Own LT..and lost in the first round this weekend in one league.

Own LJ and played against LT and am up 20pts going into tonight, pretty good shot of advancing (Housh vs Rhodes).

Two leagues....and the LT owners are most likely out.

 

[Slum Lord]

I Beat the LT owner 3 times this year, including the playoffs.

No offense, but those teams must have been complete donkeys. If you own LT 2006, SA 2005, Manning 2004, you were in your championship game unless you were a complete and utter moron (i dont count dynasty, thats a different animal). The guy in my league this year, his 6th year, never made the playoffs and was the worst team 3 of those years. #1 pick this year, takes LT, was this years leading scorer (by a mile) and is in the championship game. He takes SA or LJ, and its a completely different story.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I Beat the LT owner 3 times this year, including the playoffs.

No offense, but those teams must have been complete donkeys. If you own LT 2006, SA 2005, Manning 2004, you were in your championship game unless you were a complete and utter moron (i dont count dynasty, thats a different animal). The guy in my league this year, his 6th year, never made the playoffs and was the worst team 3 of those years. #1 pick this year, takes LT, was this years leading scorer (by a mile) and is in the championship game. He takes SA or LJ, and its a completely different story.

I had SA2005 and lost in the first round of the playoffs.It was a liitle hard to compete with this

Manning

24-36 324 yards and 2TDs

Harrison

6-137 and 2TDs

Of course I was an utter and compelte moron for getting the number 1 seed that year and ending up with that matchupin the 1st round. Life would be so much easier if I was smart like you and understood that luck and matchups have noting to do with fantasy success.

 

[Canowupass]

We can compare anecdotal evidence all day, but my point was simply this: There were no doubt a lot of fantasy games last night that pitted the LT2 owners against the LJ owners. And a lot of those LJ owners are now saying, "If I had just picked LT2 I'd be playing in the championship next week instead of the 3rd place game. So yes your season can be lost as a result of your first round pick, despite the tired old adage to the contrary. That's all.

(I don't own either player, by the way.)

 

[j3r3m3y]

I think we can put to rest the old adage that "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it."The decision to take Tomlinson over Larry Johnson probably won a lot of championships last night.In most of the leagues I've played in over the last few years, the team that has THAT GUY--the Marshall Faulk or Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson or whoever is the guy blowing up that year--wins it all. Not always, but often. Probably more than half the time. The rest of your team can be decidedly ho-hum because having that guy that goes for 40 points a game in the playoffs will make up for it.

You don't understand the concept. There are teams that have LT2 that will not win their league, therefore picking LT2 was a good move, but does not equate to an automatic win.Of course passing up on him could have lost someone the season if they had an otherwise good draft.

 

[j3r3m3y]

We can compare anecdotal evidence all day, but my point was simply this: There were no doubt a lot of fantasy games last night that pitted the LT2 owners against the LJ owners. And a lot of those LJ owners are now saying, "If I had just picked LT2 I'd be playing in the championship next week instead of the 3rd place game. So yes your season can be lost as a result of your first round pick, despite the tired old adage to the contrary. That's all.(I don't own either player, by the way.)

The adage is "Your first round pick will not win you the season, but it can cost you one."

 

[FreeBaGeL]

People are entirely missing the point of Canowupass's original post, and I happen to heavily agree with him (I've always said this).

The old addage is "you can't win your league with your first round pick, but you certainly can use it".

Obviously people can chime in with useless anecdotal evidence about how they had LT and lost. And likewise, we can also chime in with plenty of anecdotal evidence of people that drafted first round busts and still won, yet the saying that you can lose your league with your first pick is still around.

The saying came around because previously "nailing" your first round pick netted you a couple points headstart on the next guy, while "missing" your first round pick dug you into a hole much more than a couple points per week. However, with the way LT has played this year, and LJ last year, and Priest during his huge year that is no longer the case, and we are to the point where the top RB is outscoring a mid-first round RB by far more than the mid-first round RB is outscoring the first-round "busts". I mean heck, we're pretty much to the point where RB1 is outscoring RB3 or RB4 by more points than those RBs are even scoring in the first place (and hence obviously by more points than they're outscoring ANYONE else).

It used to be take LT over Priest, and lose a 5 TDs and 100 yards of production throughout the course of the season to make sure you don't end up with a 1200/7 bust in the first round. Now however, when you go from RB1 to RB2 or RB3 or RB4 you're not losing 5 TDs and 100 yards, you're losing 15 TDs and 500 yards which is almost a whole first-round RB worth of points in and of itself.

Case in point:

Rudi Johnson is a good example of a nice, safe first round pick. Nobody expected him to go for 2500/30, but everyone knew he'd give you at least 1200/10.

Rudi currently has played right around expectations and sits at 1150 yards and 10 TDs, for a total of 175 points in standard scoring leagues. Meanwhile, LT sits at 2100 yards and 31 TDs plus two more passing TDs for a total of 404 points.

So let's take our first round bust of Edgerrin James, who has put up 1200 yards and 5 TDs, for a total of 150 points.

So nice safe Rudi right around expectations has outscored bust Edge by 25 points. Meanwhile LT has outscored Rudi by 229 points! More than Rudi has even scored!

Even if we take mega busts like Alexander or Caddy who have fallen off more than 1st round busts normally do we're still looking at losses of less than 100 points, whereas the gain with LT is 229!

Gaining 229 points increases your chances of winning by much, much, MUCH more than losing 100 points hurts them.

But here's the real kicker. The difference between LT and RB2 (LJ) at this point is larger than the difference between RB2 (LJ) and RB20!!!

That means that at this point trading Larry Johnson for Jamal Lewis would actually be less detrimental to your fantasy team than trading LT away for Larry Johnson.

So if you picked 2nd overall and drafted Jamal Lewis instead of LJ, that would hurt your team LESS than picking 1st overall and drafting LJ over LT.

So I reiterate, the old addage about losing your league in round 1 but not being able to win it is a total sham when you gain (far) more points from the right pick than you lose from the wrong one.

 

[cstu]

I have LT but if the rest of your team(holt, T. bell, gates, driver) ####s the tank then it is hard to win.I am down 5 and have palmer but he has harrison and wayne

Chester Taylor, Andre Johnson, Boldin and Ben Watson 11 points combined and in other - Rivers, Chester, Holt and Fitz for 15 points.

 

[cr8f]

I think we can put to rest the old adage that "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it."The decision to take Tomlinson over Larry Johnson probably won a lot of championships last night.In most of the leagues I've played in over the last few years, the team that has THAT GUY--the Marshall Faulk or Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson or whoever is the guy blowing up that year--wins it all. Not always, but often. Probably more than half the time. The rest of your team can be decidedly ho-hum because having that guy that goes for 40 points a game in the playoffs will make up for it.

Both are history in one of my leagues.

 

[rockbottom895]

No, this statement is 100 percent false. I lost with LT. My entire team under performed. Look at my signature. Its depressing, I dominated the entire regular season.

 

[mcjc4]

My LT owner rolled people up all year. Auction league where he spent 1/2 his money on LT and hit pay dirt on every sub $20.00 player in the auction.

Drew Brees

MB3

Jones-Drew

TO

Colston

It wasn't even close. 13th year $250.00 12 teamer never been so dominated by 1 team ever.

 

[dparker713]

Meanwhile, LT sits at 2100 yards and 31 TDs plus two more passing TDs for a total of 404 points.

The problem with your analysis is 2 fold. First, no one has EVER put up number like this before, he's about to surpass the best ever seasons for even a QB. Expecting anyone to duplicate this season ever, including LT2, is a recipe for disaster. Second, as much of an advantage as LT2 is giving this year, its not enough to win a league on its own. You still need other players, attentive management, and luck. Minimizing risk in the early rounds is one way to limit the luck factor and therefore have more control over the outcome of the year. Fact of the matter is, FFers spend so many months preparing for the draft that it always takes on too much importance in comparision to what needs to be done throughout the year to win.

 

[videoguy505]

12 team league, and this Larry Johnson owner just bounced the LT2 owner right out of the playoffs... with Steve McNair's zero in my QB slot. I got an 8 and a 0 from my QB and RB1 and still beat LT2's 31-point outburst. And, I beat him in the regular season too, I ended up with the division title and the playoff bye week. He finished in 2nd just behind me.

It's management of every roster spot from the draft throughout the season. In my case, on draft day it was insuring my 4th round WR pick (Randy Moss) with a solid value player that fell to round 6 (Plaxico Burress), but it was much, much more than that.... in a league with 14-man rosters (start 8, bench 6), I only still have 5 players on my roster from draft day. 9 are midseason pickups, and I didn't end up with Romo or Colston, either--I'm playing guys like Vernon Davis, Matt Stover, and the Defense of the Week... and it's those guys that make the difference on a weekly and season-long basis.

 

[Limp Ditka]

LT2 owner just dumped from another league in the semi finals.

The person really should have done a better job of not getting matched up against Rudi J and Harrison at this point in the season

Yet another in a long line of complete and utter morons.

 

[Reagan]

No way. One person will never win it for you. It's what you do in 2,3, 4... that make it. Anyone who took Steven Jackson, Reggie Wayne and Frank Gore are right in the thick of it. Heck, LJ and Gore would beat most any LT combo if you missed on the 2nd pick.

I got LT (#3 pick) and Gore (4th round)......Chad in round 2 and Fitz in 3 (traded earlier).Barely holding on tonight to win the title. Palmer's my QB...killing me now.I"m so fortunate that #1 took SA and #2 took LJ.

 

[delusional]

Took SA #1 overall.

I am in my championship now.

 

[fsufan]

I have LT but if the rest of your team(holt, T. bell, gates, driver) ####s the tank then it is hard to win.I am down 5 and have palmer but he has harrison and wayne

Chester Taylor, Andre Johnson, Boldin and Ben Watson 11 points combined and in other - Rivers, Chester, Holt and Fitz for 15 points.

and harrison is blowing up and palmer is having a bad game

 

[thayman]

People are entirely missing the point of Canowupass's original post, and I happen to heavily agree with him (I've always said this).

The old addage is "you can't win your league with your first round pick, but you certainly can use it".

Obviously people can chime in with useless anecdotal evidence about how they had LT and lost. And likewise, we can also chime in with plenty of anecdotal evidence of people that drafted first round busts and still won, yet the saying that you can lose your league with your first pick is still around.

The saying came around because previously "nailing" your first round pick netted you a couple points headstart on the next guy, while "missing" your first round pick dug you into a hole much more than a couple points per week. However, with the way LT has played this year, and LJ last year, and Priest during his huge year that is no longer the case, and we are to the point where the top RB is outscoring a mid-first round RB by far more than the mid-first round RB is outscoring the first-round "busts". I mean heck, we're pretty much to the point where RB1 is outscoring RB3 or RB4 by more points than those RBs are even scoring in the first place (and hence obviously by more points than they're outscoring ANYONE else).

It used to be take LT over Priest, and lose a 5 TDs and 100 yards of production throughout the course of the season to make sure you don't end up with a 1200/7 bust in the first round. Now however, when you go from RB1 to RB2 or RB3 or RB4 you're not losing 5 TDs and 100 yards, you're losing 15 TDs and 500 yards which is almost a whole first-round RB worth of points in and of itself.

Case in point:

Rudi Johnson is a good example of a nice, safe first round pick. Nobody expected him to go for 2500/30, but everyone knew he'd give you at least 1200/10.

Rudi currently has played right around expectations and sits at 1150 yards and 10 TDs, for a total of 175 points in standard scoring leagues. Meanwhile, LT sits at 2100 yards and 31 TDs plus two more passing TDs for a total of 404 points.

So let's take our first round bust of Edgerrin James, who has put up 1200 yards and 5 TDs, for a total of 150 points.

So nice safe Rudi right around expectations has outscored bust Edge by 25 points. Meanwhile LT has outscored Rudi by 229 points! More than Rudi has even scored!

Even if we take mega busts like Alexander or Caddy who have fallen off more than 1st round busts normally do we're still looking at losses of less than 100 points, whereas the gain with LT is 229!

Gaining 229 points increases your chances of winning by much, much, MUCH more than losing 100 points hurts them.

But here's the real kicker. The difference between LT and RB2 (LJ) at this point is larger than the difference between RB2 (LJ) and RB20!!!

That means that at this point trading Larry Johnson for Jamal Lewis would actually be less detrimental to your fantasy team than trading LT away for Larry Johnson.

So if you picked 2nd overall and drafted Jamal Lewis instead of LJ, that would hurt your team LESS than picking 1st overall and drafting LJ over LT.

So I reiterate, the old addage about losing your league in round 1 but not being able to win it is a total sham when you gain (far) more points from the right pick than you lose from the wrong one.

 

[gman8343]

Had LT in two leagues, made the playoffs in both but just got my ### handed to me in both of them with guys like Palmer & ROY sucking it up.

Having LT is great but you need some other guys in there.

 

[cracKer]

LT was the easy part, a no-brainer. It's the rest of the draft that's filled with the decisions that will make or break your season. What Tomlinson did offer was a mulligan in the early rounds. You could have drafted Larry Fitzgerald or Randy Moss in the second round and still have been competitive.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

If you own LT 2006, SA 2005, Manning 2004, you were in your championship game unless you were a complete and utter moron

This is just simply wrong. Most leagues are head-to-head leagues. It's very possible for the highest-scoring team in the league to miss the playoffs altogether.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

Well, In both my leagues both teams that own LT lost this week and both teams with LJ are playing in the Superbowl. So, how does that confirm your thoughts?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Well, In both my leagues both teams that own LT lost this week and both teams with LJ are playing in the Superbowl. So, how does that confirm your thoughts?

As has already been posted, explained, and re-explained in 3rd grade language in this thread: NOBODY CARES. You've managed to entirely miss the point.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The problem with your analysis is 2 fold. First, no one has EVER put up number like this before, he's about to surpass the best ever seasons for even a QB. Expecting anyone to duplicate this season ever, including LT2, is a recipe for disaster.

Granted this is the best season ever, but the last half decade we have had a ton of seasons where one or two guys outperform the pack in points per game by staggering amounts. Marshall in going for 2200/26, Priest going for 2100/27, LJ going for 2100/21 in 9 starts, Alexander going for 1950/28, and now LT going for even more. That's 5 times in the last 7 years, and 4 times in the last 3 years where guys are outpacing the mid-first round RBs by more than the mid-first round RBs are outpacing the busts/later RB picks.

Second, as much of an advantage as LT2 is giving this year, its not enough to win a league on its own. You still need other players, attentive management, and luck. Minimizing risk in the early rounds is one way to limit the luck factor and therefore have more control over the outcome of the year.

I don't see how you can act like I glossed over this. I explicitly covered this in my post. Obviously no one is saying if you drafted LT in the 1st this year you could've let your 6 year old cousin finish out the draft for you. Just like no one is saying if you took Edge in the 1st this year you may as well have just packed your bags right there and gone home, yet the saying that you can "lose" your league in the 1st round is still around. Heck grabbing a guy like Westbrook in the second round puts a huge dent in making up for that first round bust and that's just one pick.To put it in simple terms, the whole point of the thread is that the old "you can't win your league in your first round but you can lose it" adage was based on the notion that if you nail your first round pick you gain a couple points each week, but if you miss it you lose a lot of points each week. This was true when RB1 was going for 1500/15 and RB7 was going for 1400/12.That's not the case anymore. We are no longer in a situation where the best you can hope to gain with your first round pick is a couple points. We now sit in a situation where you can gain a LOT of points by nailing your first round pick, and in many situations can gain more or as many points picking the right guy than you would lose picking the bust guy. We no longer have a 30 point difference between RB1 and RB7 together with a 120 point difference between RB7 and RB25. We now many years have a ~150-200 point difference between RB1 and RB7 which is in many cases a bigger difference than that between RB7 and RB25. Having a guy like LT over a safe guy like Rudi nets you 10 times the point differential that having safe Rudi does over bust Edgerrin James.It's not about "sure win" or "sure loss" and never has been, so everyone posting the useless anecdotal evidence can stop because you're just wasting everyone's time. It's about LT (or LJ, Priest, Alexander, Marshall in the past) providing a bigger or as big advantage over almost the entire rest of the league than the disadvantage of picking a 1st round bust.

 

[knobby]

Had LT in two leagues, made the playoffs in both but just got my ### handed to me in both of them with guys like Palmer & ROY sucking it up.

Having LT is great but you need some other guys in there.

Yes, you do. Luck does play a part of it. You just happened to get unlucky and have a bad week from several guys during the playoffs. It doesn't change the fact that you have a MUCH better chance to win week to week, because of the points coming from LT. It's already been pointed out that LT won't single handedly win you the championship. I wish we'd get something other than stories of how the LT owner did / didn't win the title this year. Be honest, having LT on your team this year was an advantage unlike any other in fantasy football. Whether or not you were able to capitalize on that isn't our fault.

 

[dparker713]

Granted this is the best season ever, but the last half decade we have had a ton of seasons where one or two guys outperform the pack in points per game by staggering amounts. Marshall in going for 2200/26, Priest going for 2100/27, LJ going for 2100/21 in 9 starts, Alexander going for 1950/28, and now LT going for even more. That's 5 times in the last 7 years, and 4 times in the last 3 years where guys are outpacing the mid-first round RBs by more than the mid-first round RBs are outpacing the busts/later RB picks.

All these guys, with the exception of LJ who started because of injury, were top 3 picks IIRC. Not exactly like they were coming out of left field to post these numbers. And draft position often isnt something you have much control over. Yes its a significant advantage, but there is a reason its almost impossible to trade up to the top 3 in a draft that last several years.

 

[kingmalaki]

I think we can put to rest the old adage that "you can't win your league in the first round, but you can certainly lose it."The decision to take Tomlinson over Larry Johnson probably won a lot of championships last night.In most of the leagues I've played in over the last few years, the team that has THAT GUY--the Marshall Faulk or Shaun Alexander or Larry Johnson or LaDainian Tomlinson or whoever is the guy blowing up that year--wins it all. Not always, but often. Probably more than half the time. The rest of your team can be decidedly ho-hum because having that guy that goes for 40 points a game in the playoffs will make up for it.

I agree 100%. I had the #2 pick and chose SA. I finished 8-6 and missed the playoffs by half a game. If I chose LT at #2 then I would have finished 12-2 and not played the LT owner in the first round. Yes, I think an extra 30 points a week would have helped me a lil.

 

[Canowupass]

The problem with your analysis is 2 fold. First, no one has EVER put up number like this before, he's about to surpass the best ever seasons for even a QB. Expecting anyone to duplicate this season ever, including LT2, is a recipe for disaster.

Granted this is the best season ever, but the last half decade we have had a ton of seasons where one or two guys outperform the pack in points per game by staggering amounts. Marshall in going for 2200/26, Priest going for 2100/27, LJ going for 2100/21 in 9 starts, Alexander going for 1950/28, and now LT going for even more. That's 5 times in the last 7 years, and 4 times in the last 3 years where guys are outpacing the mid-first round RBs by more than the mid-first round RBs are outpacing the busts/later RB picks.

Second, as much of an advantage as LT2 is giving this year, its not enough to win a league on its own. You still need other players, attentive management, and luck. Minimizing risk in the early rounds is one way to limit the luck factor and therefore have more control over the outcome of the year.

I don't see how you can act like I glossed over this. I explicitly covered this in my post. Obviously no one is saying if you drafted LT in the 1st this year you could've let your 6 year old cousin finish out the draft for you. Just like no one is saying if you took Edge in the 1st this year you may as well have just packed your bags right there and gone home, yet the saying that you can "lose" your league in the 1st round is still around. Heck grabbing a guy like Westbrook in the second round puts a huge dent in making up for that first round bust and that's just one pick.To put it in simple terms, the whole point of the thread is that the old "you can't win your league in your first round but you can lose it" adage was based on the notion that if you nail your first round pick you gain a couple points each week, but if you miss it you lose a lot of points each week. This was true when RB1 was going for 1500/15 and RB7 was going for 1400/12.That's not the case anymore. We are no longer in a situation where the best you can hope to gain with your first round pick is a couple points. We now sit in a situation where you can gain a LOT of points by nailing your first round pick, and in many situations can gain more or as many points picking the right guy than you would lose picking the bust guy. We no longer have a 30 point difference between RB1 and RB7 together with a 120 point difference between RB7 and RB25. We now many years have a ~150-200 point difference between RB1 and RB7 which is in many cases a bigger difference than that between RB7 and RB25. Having a guy like LT over a safe guy like Rudi nets you 10 times the point differential that having safe Rudi does over bust Edgerrin James.It's not about "sure win" or "sure loss" and never has been, so everyone posting the useless anecdotal evidence can stop because you're just wasting everyone's time. It's about LT (or LJ, Priest, Alexander, Marshall in the past) providing a bigger or as big advantage over almost the entire rest of the league than the disadvantage of picking a 1st round bust.

Well said.