Yeah this is how it usually goesPart of my job is replacing unskilled labor with automation, we've got lots of time. Unskilled labor is very inexpensive, robots can be expensive but the cost is in the programming and support.
That's exactly the situation I know people are in. I remember as far back as 20 years ago, Yamaha was using robots in their manufacturing. I hated it.How would you handle it if you were still in the boat business? Say you had robots that would build boats faster, cleaner,safer, more efficient but instead of 35 employees now you only need 7-8 to oversee operations. Then you have to tell your employees. Sorry, this is the wave of the future?
I have seen this happen at auto suppliers where a robot can s make car seats and dashboards 24-7 and never get tired, hurt or call in sick.
They replace wholes shifts of human labor. Just need routine maintenance and a person to make sure thing stay on track.
Some people like to use drugs too. If people use the newfound extra time to mostly do things that only benefit themselves (drugs, video games etc) then society won't feel the full benefit from the increased productivity from automation. However, if the result is an increased sharing of ideas and information, then society as a whole could undergo another renaissance--a modern renaissance.People like to play video games. It seems like a benefit if people can do something they like (video games) instead of something they don’t like (working).
You go right to drugs. Video games is more like watching TV. Guess people better cancel their Netflix and Hulu accounts too.Some people like to use drugs too. If people use the newfound extra time to mostly do things that only benefit themselves (drugs, video games etc) then society won't feel the full benefit from the increased productivity from automation. However, if the result is an increased sharing of ideas and information, then society as a whole could undergo another renaissance--a modern renaissance.
I hear you. But this is more life stuff. Politics became ruined when outrage and personalities became king. This is a philosophical / practical topic I think we can discuss here.You trying to get this moved to the PSF?
The solutions, one way or another, are going to be political. So I think you should at least start the same thread in the PSF.I hear you. But this is more life stuff. Politics became ruined when outrage and personalities became king. This is a philosophical / practical topic I think we can discuss here.
Both the straw man and slippery slope fallacies in less than 25 words. Congrats.You go right to drugs. Video games is more like watching TV. Guess people better cancel their Netflix and Hulu accounts too.
That's another angle. And truth. This isn't always a nefarious mean old greedy boss thing. There are lots of jobs where machines can do a better job.Could probably automate at least half the jobs in my department today if management would let us.....and get better results
Yes that's what you did. You equated a hobby you don't like with doing drugs, a far worse undertaking. When I try to equate it to something relatable on the personal vice scale, you get offended because you like TV. So yes strawman and slippery slope away.Both the straw man and slippery slope fallacies in less than 25 words. Congrats.
No, we can keep it here for at least a bit. I like having some different voices in a conversation.The solutions, one way or another, are going to be political. So I think you should at least start the same thread in the PSF.
Even the simple things. I know a lady who manages a Panera Bread. When they installed the kiosk for people to order from they eliminated 40-60 hours of human labor a week instead of having 2-3 people take and process orders they only need one most of the time. Does not seem like much but most of their employees are part time people, moms, HS and college kids who need that 20s hour a week. I asked her how do you handle it and she said. Well we just try to spread out the hours. If they were getting 20 they now get 8-10..then of course they usually quit to find more hours.That's exactly the situation I know people are in. I remember as far back as 20 years ago, Yamaha was using robots in their manufacturing. I hated it.
Partly because for me, employing people was such a giant part of why I wanted to be in business.
If I were still there today, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't have to consider it. At some point it becomes a question of remaining in business vs going out of business. It's like a lay off in a recession. A few people lose their job so the company stays alive for the majority of the employees. But the hope was always to rehire anyone laid off like that. And we did.
My gut feel is I'd fight the robotic stuff super hard. But it feels to me it's eventually a losing battle.
And on a real world practical level, those people being replaced by robots are having a tough time. I know the theoretical talk about society benefitting as a whole and more time to do what you want all that. That to me sounds like pie in the sky. When you're looking in the eyes of a 45 year old husband with limited marketable skills and a wife and 2 kids at home with bills to pay that are due that week. The theory talk of a utopian future doesn't sit well with him.
With Panera, I just order online so it is there waiting for me. Walk in/walk out.Even the simple things. I know a lady who manages a Panera Bread. When they installed the kiosk for people to order from they eliminated 40-60 hours of human labor a week instead of having 2-3 people take and process orders they only need one most of the time. Does not seem like much but most of their employees are part time people, moms, HS and college kids who need that 20s hour a week. I asked her how do you handle it and she said. Well we just try to spread out the hours. If they were getting 20 they now get 8-10..then of course they usually quit to find more hours.
At a meeting she said that she was told within 5 years there may not even be an option to order from a person anymore. It will be all automated.
I wasn't offended. You just don't understand my post or logical fallacies.Yes that's what you did. You equated a hobby you don't like with doing drugs, a far worse undertaking. When I try to equate it to something relatable on the personal vice scale, you get offended because you like TV. So yes strawman and slippery slope away.
I think there is truth in this before--however, with the demand for increased minimum wage, the upfront capital becomes palatable.Yeah this is how it usually goes
someone comes up with a proposal to spend X to eliminate Y workers. Payback probably 1-3 years
then the proposal gets up through finance and C-level and nobody wants to invest in the upfront capital because that would cause them to underperform that quarter and it might affect their bonus
Personally, I'm a straw slope and slippery man kind of guy.Yes that's what you did. You equated a hobby you don't like with doing drugs, a far worse undertaking. When I try to equate it to something relatable on the personal vice scale, you get offended because you like TV. So yes strawman and slippery slope away.
Yeah sorry I meant more along the lines of manufacturing and assembly. Customer service / order taking much easier to replaceI think there is truth in this before--however, with the demand for increased minimum wage, the upfront capital becomes palatable.
You can see the transition slowly happening everywhere around you--the Walmart near me already had self-checkouts, but now they have taken out more full-service registers and gone with self-scan type aisles. Movie theaters were already moving towards kiosks to buy tickets. The biggest thing I have seen is in the last week both the McDonalds and Taco Bell have installed order kiosks.. They have one employee to help customers who pay cash, hand out drink cups and hand out food. Boom, the need for three employees has just been reduced to one.
With bloated administration-heavy government programs that provide very little benefit of course.the "problem" amounts to "how do we distribute this massive increase in our overall wealth?"
We are thisclose to someone designing a user friendly Quicken type algorithm program for financial investment that catches on with the masses. Something that's basically the Amazon of financial/retirement planning.The next wave will come for financial service advisors.
There is just not a need for 10s of millions of people to tell you to put your money in an index fund and forget about it.
Robo-advisors are already in place at many houses and this is spreading. And it's not like they charge a fee discount or anything. That money just flows up to the top.
Though I will say 10 years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.
Stop.ZenoRazon said:Sales............that is the biz to get into to. There will never be some machine that can sell.
There you sit across from the husband and the wife. Bottom line......a stranger looking to walk out of their home with a check. This takes some serious talent. The key.............create the need.
One thing I've read about index fund investing (and that makes logical sense) is if everyone does it, it would no longer work. No doubt automation will continue to impact that sector but it can't be primarily in indexing. And even if it's computers picking stocks, people will have to pick the computers.The next wave will come for financial service advisors.
There is just not a need for 10s of millions of people to tell you to put your money in an index fund and forget about it.
Robo-advisors are already in place at many houses and this is spreading. And it's not like they charge a fee discount or anything. That money just flows up to the top.
Though I will say 10 years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.
Well if you read a thing somewhere, it must be true.One think I've read about index fund investing (and that makes logical sense) is if everyone does it, it would no longer work. No doubt automation will continue to impact that sector but it can't be primarily in indexing. And even if it's computers picking stocks, people will have to pick the computers.
Oh I absolutely agree with this. This has the potential to devastate entire communities of people. Which is why we should be trying to be enacting public policies now that will prevent these kinds of catastrophic changes in people's lives. But what i don't think is the answer is to focus on making sure everyone is working a full time job, In my judgment the answer is in redistributing resources so that people don't have to work a full time job to have a good life.And on a real world practical level, those people being replaced by robots are having a tough time. I know the theoretical talk about society benefitting as a whole and more time to do what you want all that. That to me sounds like pie in the sky. When you're looking in the eyes of a 45 year old husband with limited marketable skills and a wife and 2 kids at home with bills to pay that are due that week. The theory talk of a utopian future doesn't sit well with him.
Strange sarcasm here.Well if you read a thing somewhere, it must be true.
Right. I've said before in other threads that automation and other technological advances are going to force us to either reconsider the notion of work for pay, or we will drift into a state where wealth inequality will be extreme (even more extreme than it already is), with revolution the ultimate outcome in the later case. Right now the trend seems to be toward the latter scenario.Oh I absolutely agree with this. This has the potential to devastate entire communities of people. Which is why we should be trying to be enacting public policies now that will prevent these kinds of catastrophic changes in people's lives. But what i don't think is the answer is to focus on making sure everyone is working a full time job, In my judgment the answer is in redistributing resources so that people don't have to work a full time job to have a good life.
I started this thread in the PSF last month to discuss some of these issues. The emphasis on "everyone should work full time" is not making our lives better, it's making them worse. Lots of people are working full time jobs that don't require anywhere near 40 hours of work. Some people are working full time jobs that don't even need to exist at all. We need to change our entire mindset about this.
We should be considering a tax on corporations that automate jobs - nothing ridiculous but do it now before it potentially gets away from us.chet said:There's no doubt that automation will replace many jobs in this country over the next few decades. The question is what will people do with their extra time--if society uses it productively, then automation will be a win. By productively, I mean something that will benefit society as a whole: music, art etc. Wasting it on video games for example, on the other hand, will have no benefit for society.
Are they? I’ve seen a lot of banks close and honestly couldn’t tell you where the closest bank is to where I live.The next wave will come for financial service advisors.
There is just not a need for 10s of millions of people to tell you to put your money in an index fund and forget about it.
Robo-advisors are already in place at many houses and this is spreading. And it's not like they charge a fee discount or anything. That money just flows up to the top.
Though I will say 10 years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.
Stay in your lane, Bro.......and judging by a Samsung commercial I saw over the weekend, tattoo artists should be very afraid.
bank branches continue to pop up everywhere in our town and I can't figure it why - I mean what's the strategy?Are they? I’ve seen a lot of banks close and honestly couldn’t tell you where the closest bank is to where I live.
Are they small community type banks or majors like TD, Wells Fargo etc?bank branches continue to pop up everywhere in our town and I can't figure it why - I mean what's the strategy?
can any banking guys help with why so many branches are appearing in the last few years?
Some big, some smaller - but all are just branches. This is a suburb community of Little Rock that has grown from 5k to around 18k the last 20 years.Are they small community type banks or majors like TD, Wells Fargo etc?
The wave is coming in the accounting/tax arena as well, and it's already here in certain instances.The next wave will come for financial service advisors.
There is just not a need for 10s of millions of people to tell you to put your money in an index fund and forget about it.
Robo-advisors are already in place at many houses and this is spreading. And it's not like they charge a fee discount or anything. That money just flows up to the top.
Though I will say 10 years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.
I get the reason you would want to consider something like this, but wouldn't this simultaneously discourage technological progress? I am not sure that is a desired outcome either.We should be considering a tax on corporations that automate jobs - nothing ridiculous but do it now before it potentially gets away from us.
Bank robbers need jobs too.years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.
I have seen at least 3 brick and mortar banks go up in the past couple years within a few miles of where I live. We didn't have any shortage of them prior. There are currently 5 branches of Chase within 5 miles of my house. There are 7 different brick and mortar banks within 2 miles of my house...9 if you want to count branches in WalMart and the local grocery store.Are they? I’ve seen a lot of banks close and honestly couldn’t tell you where the closest bank is to where I live.
it's just nuts, bolts, and washers..Who wants to get in on the ground floor with me on RobotGuys.com?? The ultimate place for your fantasy robot leagues.
We're going to be pioneers in value-based drafting -- you don't pick a factory line worker or robot vacuum ahead of an autonomous vehicle, unless they drop far enough into the 3rd round -- and we will make the best predictions out there.
I'll be honest -- what we do here at RobotGuys won't be for everyone. It's a big internet, and if it's not right for you, I'm sure there's another place you can find that works for you.
Some people will think our "no robot frontal nudity" policy is a little puritan. Look, I get it. But those are somebody's robo-daughters, and I'm just not comfortable having that on our site.
O
IN. I bring six years of competitive robotics experience to the table.Who wants to get in on the ground floor with me on RobotGuys.com?? The ultimate place for your fantasy robot leagues.
We're going to be pioneers in value-based drafting -- you don't pick a factory line worker or robot vacuum ahead of an autonomous vehicle, unless they drop far enough into the 3rd round -- and we will make the best predictions out there.
I'll be honest -- what we do here at RobotGuys won't be for everyone. It's a big internet, and if it's not right for you, I'm sure there's another place you can find that works for you.
Some people will think our "no robot frontal nudity" policy is a little puritan. Look, I get it. But those are somebody's robo-daughters, and I'm just not comfortable having that on our site.
O
:robothawkscreech:Who wants to get in on the ground floor with me on RobotGuys.com?? The ultimate place for your fantasy robot leagues.
We're going to be pioneers in value-based drafting -- you don't pick a factory line worker or robot vacuum ahead of an autonomous vehicle, unless they drop far enough into the 3rd round -- and we will make the best predictions out there.
I'll be honest -- what we do here at RobotGuys won't be for everyone. It's a big internet, and if it's not right for you, I'm sure there's another place you can find that works for you.
Some people will think our "no robot frontal nudity" policy is a little puritan. Look, I get it. But those are somebody's robo-daughters, and I'm just not comfortable having that on our site.
O
This is generally my take.The world and jobs are always changing. It's progress. There will be jobs in 20 years. Some will be different than the ones of today.