Your Thoughts? - "Automation Could Wipe Out Almost Half of All Jobs in 20 Years" (1 Viewer)

[Penguin]

This is generally my take. 

Have you seen any proposed uses in your field yet?

I could see a scenario down the road where big firms use automation to sift threw hundreds of thousands of previous cases, discovery material etc in a few days instead of junior level attorneys  spending weeks and months doing it.

 

[culdeus]

Bank robbers need jobs too.

Robot bank robbers would be pretty cool.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Robot bank robbers would be pretty cool.

http://img13.deviantart.net/00f4/i/2010/253/4/c/bender_the_robber_by_invader_johnny-d2yfjfb.jpg

 

[ZenoRazon]

Stop.

Selling is easy if you aren't an ahole.

Also - what you describe isn't selling imo.

Couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

Dude, talking a total stranger into writing you out a check for 300 or more $$$$ is easy? 

 

[matuski]

Couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

Dude, talking a total stranger into writing you out a check for 300 or more $$$$ is easy? 

That isn't selling.

 

[Psychopav]

Don't worry guys...."adult" dancers will always be an occupation. 

:burn:

That's great for your mom but the rest of us need jobs too, dude.

 

[EYLive]

The world and jobs are always changing.  It's progress.  There will be jobs in 20 years.   Some will be different than the ones of today. 

The problem isn't that there won't be jobs. It's that the workers (middle aged people who can't learn new skills and can't afford to retire) whose jobs are being replaced by automation don't have alternatives for employment. Even if they can learn new skills, they can't compete with 20-somethings that will do the job for less and do it better than a middle aged person.

 

[EYLive]

Presidential candidate Andrew Yang mentioned insurance brokers as a job that's on the brink of being automated. As a former broker it alarmed me, but it reminded me how mundane and paper-work/data entry oriented my profession was. Insurance carriers can easily cut out the middle man, work directly with policy holders and use online forms to save a lot of money.

 

[kevzilla]

The problem isn't that there won't be jobs. It's that the workers (middle aged people who can't learn new skills and can't afford to retire) whose jobs are being replaced by automation don't have alternatives for employment. Even if they can learn new skills, they can't compete with 20-somethings that will do the job for less and do it better than a middle aged person.

 

[shuke]

I think about this often for my kids. I have no idea how they’ll make a living. 

I guarantee people were saying this 100 years ago.  They'll be fine.

 

[shuke]

Maybe managers aren't safe either...

Amazon's warehouse-worker tracking system can automatically pick people to fire without a human supervisor's involvement

 

Amazon currently employs over half a million people.  Not a good example for "taking away jobs".

 

[chet]

Amazon currently employs over half a million people.  Not a good example for "taking away jobs".

Walk down Main St in any small town and try saying that out loud--that is if you can find anyone to listen.

 

[shuke]

Are they?  I’ve seen a lot of banks close and honestly couldn’t tell you where the closest bank is to where I live.

Oh come on.

 

[shuke]

Walk down Main St in any small town and try saying that out loud--that is if you can find anyone to listen.

You got me.  I meant within Amazon.

 

[Slapdash]

We should be considering a tax on corporations

Edited your post to the real point as I see it.  Particularly given some of the most outspoken voices in this thread.

 

[Slapdash]

years ago I would have thought the bank branch on every corner model would fade and disappear, but yet here we are and they are still everywhere.

Bank robbers need jobs too.

To quote a great book title:  The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One.  It has only gotten worse.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Amazon currently employs over half a million people.  Not a good example for "taking away jobs".

Cool. I'd expect they'd be one of the prime companies to "lead the way" in the future eliminating human jobs and replacing them with robotics and automation. 

Uber's another. Build the business with humans and then replace them with driverless cars. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Technology has been throwing people out of work since the 18th century. See Marx & Engels. The question is when does it become a crisis and what’s to be done about it.

 

[shuke]

Cool. I'd expect they'd be one of the prime companies to "lead the way" in the future eliminating human jobs and replacing them with robotics and automation. 

Amazon is already using automated warehouses and still hiring at an exponential rate.  I expect them to continue and also create jobs in other sectors.

 

[EYLive]

Cool. I'd expect they'd be one of the prime companies to "lead the way" in the future eliminating human jobs and replacing them with robotics and automation. 

Uber's another. Build the business with humans and then replace them with driverless cars. 

There are 3.5 million American truck drivers that will be out of work within the next 10 years. Most have no other skills and no college degrees. 

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

That's exactly the situation I know people are in. I remember as far back as 20 years ago, Yamaha was using robots in their manufacturing. I hated it. 

Partly because for me, employing people was such a giant part of why I wanted to be in business. 

If I were still there today, I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't have to consider it. At some point it becomes a question of remaining in business vs going out of business. It's like a lay off in a recession. A few people lose their job so the company stays alive for the majority of the employees. But the hope was always to rehire anyone laid off like that. And we did. 

My gut feel is I'd fight the robotic stuff super hard. But it feels to me it's eventually a losing battle. 

And on a real world practical level, those people being replaced by robots are having a tough time. I know the theoretical talk about society benefitting as a whole and more time to do what you want all that. That to me sounds like pie in the sky. When you're looking in the eyes of a 45 year old husband with limited marketable skills and a wife and 2 kids at home with bills to pay that are due that week. The theory talk of a utopian future doesn't sit well with him. 

I remember being told the story of John Henry verses the steam shovel when I was a boy back in the 60's.  Do they still tell that story?  

 

[Otis]

I guarantee people were saying this 100 years ago.  They'll be fine.

Hope you’re right GB.  This feels different, but maybe you’re right. 

 

[JaxBill]

There are 3.5 million American truck drivers that will be out of work within the next 10 years. Most have no other skills and no college degrees. 

10 years is a bit ambitious. 20 years maybe.

- Significantly more damage can be done by an out of control fully loaded tractor trailer than a midsize Uber.

- Regulations around interstate commerce will slow down acceptance. Do automated "drivers" have to weigh in? What kind of mandated down time required ? (Driver may not be tired but wear and tear on engine/trailer)

-Do truck stops set up special areas for automated trucks to refuel?

- Trucking industry is fragmented with a lot of regional companies. Most of these companies don't have the excess capital to change over their trucks on a dime. Also a lot of corporations have their own trucking division. Maybe this opens the door for a new national trucking company. 

 

[flranger]

I remember being told the story of John Henry verses the steam shovel when I was a boy back in the 60's.  Do they still tell that story?  

uhhhh.....he died after racing the steam shovel

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

uhhhh.....he died after racing the steam shovel

Yes he did, but he raced it gloriously.  Of course my point was that this discussion, man being replaced by automation, has been ongoing for the last century.  The trepidation is not new, though it is real.  Still, we survive, we adapt, we evolve, if through the sacrifice of some to the gods of progress.  Me, as a child, I rooted hard for John henry.  maybe that indicates I am backward looking.  I am sure there must have been some rooting for man's technological and intellectual advancement to win out, but not me. I wonder, does that little boy still reside within me or have I now switched sides, rooting for progress. 

 

[EYLive]

Many of you seem to think automation is a future concern. Incorrect, it's already happening and will only increase. It's time to have a backup plan instead of putting your head in the sand.

 

[chet]

Hope you’re right GB.  This feels different, but maybe you’re right. 

O rlly.  Please tell us how it was, GB

 

[Joe Bryant]

I remember being told the story of John Henry verses the steam shovel when I was a boy back in the 60's.  Do they still tell that story?  

I remember it too. And I kind of doubt they tell it today. 

 

[Eephus]

A robot wouldn't have let the cert expire

 

[Max Power]

I remember it too. And I kind of doubt they tell it today. 

They are actually making a John Henry movie staring the Rock.  I only know about it because there was a story about a "backlash" that the Rock is playing John Henry because he isn't black enough.

 

[Joe Bryant]

A robot wouldn't have let the cert expire

That's actually super interesting. Auto-renew malfunction had a role in this.  

 

[bigmarc27]

I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome any change, my friend.

I wanna see it all come down.
suck it down.
flush it down.

 

[culdeus]

That's actually super interesting. Auto-renew malfunction had a role in this.  

Robot doesn't know how to lick a stamp?

 

[Eephus]

That's actually super interesting. Auto-renew malfunction had a role in this.  

Yeah, I used to be involved with cert management for an enterprise with thousands of servers and hundreds of certs.  Automated scripts worked almost flawlessly but when there was a failure, humans were forced into react mode.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Yeah, I used to be involved with cert management for an enterprise with thousands of servers and hundreds of certs.  Automated scripts worked almost flawlessly but when there was a failure, humans were forced into react mode.

Thanks. You know how our day was then. What should have been simple was actually kind of hard as doing things the "manual" way now is unusual.

I was at a retail store not long ago and a thunderstorm had the power flickering back and forth. It took 20 to finally find an "old" person (over 28) who knew how to use the dusty old carbon copy copy credit card device. There were lots of people there who'd legit never seen one before. 

Dang I'm old. 

 

[snogger]

Many of you seem to think automation is a future concern. Incorrect, it's already happening and will only increase. It's time to have a backup plan instead of putting your head in the sand.

Part of my new job is automating current manual business processes..

One I am working on, when done, will reduce the workload that currently has 5 users spending 10+ hours a week each, to a max of 2 users spending less then 10 hours to do a week..

So going from 50+ hours/week to a max of 10 hours/week or less and at least 3 users will need to find other work...

So I guess, in the realm of this thread, I'm one of the culprit's … 

 

[DaVinci]

I remember being told the story of John Henry verses the steam shovel when I was a boy back in the 60's.  Do they still tell that story?  

You've heard the legend of Jesse James and John Henry, just to mention some names. Well there's a truck driving legend in the South today, a robot called "B@nd1T" from Atlanta, GA. 

 

[JaxBill]

They Killed John Henry

 

[Galileo]

Part of my new job is automating current manual business processes..

One I am working on, when done, will reduce the workload that currently has 5 users spending 10+ hours a week each, to a max of 2 users spending less then 10 hours to do a week..

So going from 50+ hours/week to a max of 10 hours/week or less and at least 3 users will need to find other work...

So I guess, in the realm of this thread, I'm one of the culprit's … 

Just wait until they automate the automating...

 

[Statorama]

If we're just talking about US jobs, outsourcing is a bigger concern.  

I'm very good at what I do, but if my company wanted to go the cheap route, they could replace me tomorrow with someone in another country with a phone and an internet connection who's a third as good for half the price

 

[Zow]

Have you seen any proposed uses in your field yet?

I could see a scenario down the road where big firms use automation to sift threw hundreds of thousands of previous cases, discovery material etc in a few days instead of junior level attorneys  spending weeks and months doing it.

Yes - vice news actually did a segment on it. 

 

[Penguin]

If we're just talking about US jobs, outsourcing is a bigger concern.  

I'm very good at what I do, but if my company wanted to go the cheap route, they could replace me tomorrow with someone in another country with a phone and an internet connection who's a third as good for half the price

Most large companies went the offshore route 10-15 years ago due to salary savings, now they are eliminating the off shore jobs, at least the leaders are.

 

[Penguin]

Basically my team while continuing our current high level operations support of the Tier 1, Tier2, Tier3 and Tier4 teams that we support, is also in parallel automating the majority of the tasks they do. It will be a few years but eventually we will be writing the code that will canalbelize my own level of support, the highest we have internally. So essentially my job is to eventually  automate me. The folks like Shuke that are non believers are the ones that will be steamrolled by this next wave of innovation, it's not coming, it's already here.

 

[Galileo]

Basically my team while continuing our current high level operations support of the Tier 1, Tier2, Tier3 and Tier4 teams that we support, is also in parallel automating the majority of the tasks they do. It will be a few years but eventually we will be writing the code that will canalbelize my own level of support, the highest we have internally. So essentially my job is to eventually  automate me. The folks like Shuke that are non believers are the ones that will be steamrolled by this next wave of innovation, it's not coming, it's already here.

Just wait until they automate the automating...

Too late

 

[shuke]

Basically my team while continuing our current high level operations support of the Tier 1, Tier2, Tier3 and Tier4 teams that we support, is also in parallel automating the majority of the tasks they do. It will be a few years but eventually we will be writing the code that will canalbelize my own level of support, the highest we have internally. So essentially my job is to eventually  automate me. The folks like Shuke that are non believers are the ones that will be steamrolled by this next wave of innovation, it's not coming, it's already here.

I’m not saying that it’s not happening. I’m saying that the world will adjust and new types of jobs will be created.  

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

I remember it too. And I kind of doubt they tell it today. 

I doubt it as well.  I know I never shared that legend with my kids.  I do think I shared some basic Paul Bunyan lore, but I am certain they did not read those various stories like I did as a child.  Same with Aesops Fables. 

 

[culdeus]

This is someone looking to create robot models. https://youtu.be/8siezzLXbNo

Freaky as hell

 

[skol asylum]

I don't see it happening in 20 years. I've worked for 3 different companies in the last 5 years and all of them are total #### shows behind the scenes when it comes to technology. You'd be surprised to know that a trillion dollar mutual fund company runs all of their most important operations on a program that was written in the  early 90's. They never upgraded because they didn't want to invest the cost. Then the cost grew Everytime it came to upgrade fully. Instead they just slap it on top of then platform that's there and adapt it to work for what they need at the time.

The point is, while super smart people are wiring and programming these things, there are still idiots in charge of buying them for their company and then hiring the right people to implement them. If it isn't cost effective, they won't be doing it and if it becomes cost effective, they probably won't do it right for another 10-15 years after that.

Yeah, this is a great point. I see it in the healthcare industry too.

 

[Tiger Fan]

This should concern everyone - not just those in jobs that will likely automate first. 

There’s a real chance that in 40 years a significant % of the adult workforce won’t be ‘necessary.’  This is why proposals like the Basic Income Guarantee (BIG) need to be taken seriously. 

For hundreds of years (since the industrial revolution it’s been virtually the total population) people have traded their time and skill for wages, then have traded those wages for goods and services. If transportation, food and retail service, (even ‘high skill’ jobs like financial planners and attorneys have been replaced by AI/algorithms) can be automated we could potentially have a permanent unemployable lower class with a smaller middle and upper middle class professional workforce and EVEN MORE concentration of wealth at the top. 

Not to be to alarmist but this is the type of dynamic that, if it isn’t managed properly, fuels unrest and potential revolution. 

Spot on IMO.  Read "Rise of the Robots"....excellent book on this subject.

Of course the jobs will change in the future, but the pace of change plus automation will further the gap b/w the haves and have nots IMO.  Basic Income Guarantee needs to be heavily considered and not just viewed as a "handout"

 

[JaxBill]

Meanwhile down at the docks