Zac Stacy is the highest drafted 5th round or later NFL pick in dynast (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

You're acting like it's a safe assumption that Stacy will have meaningful value this year.

What if he gets 125-175 carries and the Rams bring in a real starter next year? How will you feel about passing on the likes of Kelce, Wheaton, and Manuel then?

There is a whole range of potential outcomes that sees him never achieve anything close to meaningful FF value. Think about guys like Montario Hardesty, Eric Shelton, and JJ Arrington. They were all higher picks than Stacy and they were all expected to have immediate value right out of the box. Opportunity is nice, but the player still needs to deliver. He needs to stay healthy and outperform his competition to such an extent that his coach clearly prefers him.

I think it's a pretty big stretch to assume that Stacy is good enough to relegate Pead and Richardson to the pine. It's possible, but it's also possible that those two split the team's carries down the middle and Stacy never starts a game in his NFL career. I think the top 15 of a rookie draft is too high to take a guy whose value is so closely tied to his situation. I think the most likely outcome here is an ugly RBBC resembling what we saw in Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Jacksonville last year. There's a slim possibility that Stacy will blow up, but I don't think the odds of him having significant long term value justify the top 15 rookie draft price tag. That seems off by 10-15 spots.

Vick Ballard and Alfred Morris were good values last year in part because they were drafted in the range of longshots. When all you invest is a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick in a player, there's little risk and lots of upside. When you take guys like Franklin and Stacy in the 10-15 range, you are paying way over the odds and drafting them a few slots within their ceiling. Doesn't make a lot of sense unless you're just totally sold that they're gonna hit.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

You're acting like it's a safe assumption that Stacy will have meaningful value this year. What if he gets 125-175 carries and the Rams bring in a real starter next year? How will you feel about passing on the likes of Kelce, Wheaton, and Manuel then? There is a whole range of potential outcomes that sees him never achieve anything close to meaningful FF value. Think about guys like Montario Hardesty, Eric Shelton, and JJ Arrington. They were all higher picks than Stacy and they were all expected to have immediate value right out of the box. Opportunity is nice, but the player still needs to deliver. He needs to stay healthy and outperform his competition to such an extent that his coach clearly prefers him. I think it's a pretty big stretch to assume that Stacy is good enough to relegate Pead and Richardson to the pine. It's possible, but it's also possible that those two split the team's carries down the middle and Stacy never starts a game in his NFL career. I think the top 15 of a rookie draft is too high to take a guy whose value is so closely tied to his situation. I think the most likely outcome here is an ugly RBBC resembling what we saw in Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Jacksonville last year. There's a slim possibility that Stacy will blow up, but I don't think the odds of him having significant long term value justify the top 15 rookie draft price tag. That seems off by 10-15 spots. Vick Ballard and Alfred Morris were good values last year in part because they were drafted in the range of longshots. When all you invest is a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick in a player, there's little risk and lots of upside. When you take guys like Franklin and Stacy in the 10-15 range, you are paying way over the odds and drafting them a few slots within their ceiling. Doesn't make a lot of sense unless you're just totally sold that they're gonna hit.

I noticed you don't place value on situations at all. I hope you don't take this in a negative way but its really separating you from some really good holds and folds because you have a thing for talent when you stick to your guns. A perfect example is Stacy vs Chistine Michael. Michael is A level prospect while Stacy is a C+/B-. Stacy happened to land in a A situation while Michael landed in a D situation with a established starter and young talent. Stacy deserves a bump for that reason alone. This is fantasy football. Give me the good, even marginal, talent in a great situation over the world beater with no shot at 200+ carries for the time being. Eventually you have to rate BJGE over J. Stewart if you're in it to win it. I'll pick the world beater talent off of waivers when you get sick of holding him for three years.

 

[Sabertooth]

This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.

:rofl:

I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.

Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.

I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.

So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?

I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

We are talking Dynasty here right? Just for clarification. If so, then I think most of those players have a higher VBD than Stacy over their careers. I can almost certainly say Hunter, Woods, and Eifert will. I have a strong inclination that Kelce and Ertz do. I think Lattimore does if he returns to health which at this point is a coinflip. I think Manuel does and I think Geno does.

 

[Biabreakable]

I am on my way out the door right now but perhaps someone could talk about rookie WR prospects, their bust rate and how useful they actually are in terms of VBD at a marginal WR 3-2 level. If they are actually good enough. The WR being listed recently in this thread are not likely to ever become a WR1 in my opinion. At least not any time soon (next 2 years). EBF himself said Woods would be a decent starter in real football but perhaps only a marginal player in FF. I tend to look at most WR not drafted in the 1st round this way.

So how does 5-10 VBD a season (starting perhaps in 2014) compare to a player who could put up a 50 VBD season this year? In 5 years the WR would match the RB one season right? But who is going to help you win more games?

Even if Stacy only gets 50% of the touches he will likely produce enough to gain trade value that can be used for bait sooner than any of those players will.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am on my way out the door right now but perhaps someone could talk about rookie WR prospects, their bust rate and how useful they actually are in terms of VBD at a marginal WR 3-2 level. If they are actually good enough. The WR being listed recently in this thread are not likely to ever become a WR1 in my opinion. At least not any time soon (next 2 years). EBF himself said Woods would be a decent starter in real football but perhaps only a marginal player in FF. I tend to look at most WR not drafted in the 1st round this way.

So how does 5-10 VBD a season (starting perhaps in 2014) compare to a player who could put up a 50 VBD season this year? In 5 years the WR would match the RB one season right? But who is going to help you win more games?

Even if Stacy only gets 50% of the touches he will likely produce enough to gain trade value that can be used for bait sooner than any of those players will.

I guess I don't look at it how you do. A dynasty draft pick to me is a player I plan to hold while they grow into a role. I doubt that if Stacy were to have a decent rushing season ala Vick Ballard, that you'd be able to move him for Marcus Lattimore next offseason (even if Lattimore doesn't play a snap). I don't think Ballard was going for a 1st round rookie pick this offseason and he was a late pick coming of a solid year but with a much better supporting cast in Luck and Reggie Wayne. I think Stacy has to have a huge impact (think more Alfred Morris than Vick Ballard) to garner a first round pick in return (meaning to get back next year what he is costing this year). At that point, why waste the pick this year just to get it back next year?

Next season, they could select a back in the top 5.5 rounds (making him a higher pick than Stacy). Whereas I doubt Cincy drops a Top 20 pick on a TE or Tennesee goes WR earlier than the 34th pick. Meaning Stacy's position, unless he really lights it up this year, is going to be precarious next year. Look at Daryl Richardson and Pead? No way anyone sends you a 2013 first rounder for them, even the very last one. Yet Richardson did well last season and Pead was a much higher pick than Stacy. Both have maybe 3rd round rookie pick value at this point.

Vick Ballard is another guy. I have an offer on the table right now (after the Bradshaw signing) of Ballard + (2) 2014 2nd rounders in exchange for a 2014 First. I am the Bradshaw owner and am considering it. And Ballard had a good year last year.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.

:rofl:

I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.

Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.

I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.

So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?

I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

I absolutely do. I just think it's ridiculously unlikely that Stacy produces high VBD. Steven Jackson managed a whopping 46 VBD in St. Louis last year. No matter whether Stacy gets the lead role or not, Richardson/Pead are not going to just disappear- they'll hang around and eat enough into the workload to destroy Stacy's chance at accumulating big VBD totals. Over the last 5 years, RB18 has posted 39, 14, 25, 14, and 26 VBD, for an average of 23.6 a year. If Stacy is an average RB2, his expected VBD is nothing. It's chump change. It's peanuts. A single average WR2 season produces as much as a single average RB2 season in non-PPR (more in PPR); RBs are extremely valuable at the top precisely because the dropoff is so steep, and because middling RBs produce such weak value. Over the last five years, an average of 5.6 TEs a year have produced more VBD than the 18th best RB- a single top-5 season by Kelce, Reed, or Ertz would totally negate an RB2 season by Stacy.

If I thought Stacy had top 12 upside, I'd be a lot more excited about him, because when you get really high up in the RB rankings you start to produce truly difference-making VBD values. But if you're right, and the appeal of Zac Stacy is that he might get you a handful of RB2 seasons, I see absolutely nothing compelling about that from a VBD standpoint.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I am on my way out the door right now but perhaps someone could talk about rookie WR prospects, their bust rate and how useful they actually are in terms of VBD at a marginal WR 3-2 level. If they are actually good enough. The WR being listed recently in this thread are not likely to ever become a WR1 in my opinion. At least not any time soon (next 2 years). EBF himself said Woods would be a decent starter in real football but perhaps only a marginal player in FF. I tend to look at most WR not drafted in the 1st round this way.

So how does 5-10 VBD a season (starting perhaps in 2014) compare to a player who could put up a 50 VBD season this year? In 5 years the WR would match the RB one season right? But who is going to help you win more games?

Even if Stacy only gets 50% of the touches he will likely produce enough to gain trade value that can be used for bait sooner than any of those players will.

Over the last five years, 50 VBD would have ranked Stacy as RB16, 10, 15, 8, and 13 (average of RB12). Steven Jackson has only topped 50 VBD once since 2006. I think you're wildly overrating just how valuable Zac Stacy might be in the short term. Stacy would need to finish as a borderline RB1 this year to live up to your VBD expectations. Current consensus staff rankings have him at RB49, instead.

Gaining trade value is nice, but it only matters if you trade him at exactly the right time. Most of the time, owners will miss the peak sell window and only a small fraction (if any) of a player's "paper gains" in trade value will be realized.

 

[Sabertooth]

This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.

:rofl:

I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.

Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.

I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.

So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?

I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

I absolutely do. I just think it's ridiculously unlikely that Stacy produces high VBD. Steven Jackson managed a whopping 46 VBD in St. Louis last year. No matter whether Stacy gets the lead role or not, Richardson/Pead are not going to just disappear- they'll hang around and eat enough into the workload to destroy Stacy's chance at accumulating big VBD totals. Over the last 5 years, RB18 has posted 39, 14, 25, 14, and 26 VBD, for an average of 23.6 a year. If Stacy is an average RB2, his expected VBD is nothing. It's chump change. It's peanuts. A single average WR2 season produces as much as a single average RB2 season in non-PPR (more in PPR); RBs are extremely valuable at the top precisely because the dropoff is so steep, and because middling RBs produce such weak value. Over the last five years, an average of 5.6 TEs a year have produced more VBD than the 18th best RB- a single top-5 season by Kelce, Reed, or Ertz would totally negate an RB2 season by Stacy.

If I thought Stacy had top 12 upside, I'd be a lot more excited about him, because when you get really high up in the RB rankings you start to produce truly difference-making VBD values. But if you're right, and the appeal of Zac Stacy is that he might get you a handful of RB2 seasons, I see absolutely nothing compelling about that from a VBD standpoint.

Can you unpack this a little? I'm not sure I follow this.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.

:rofl:

I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.

Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.

I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.

So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?

I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

I absolutely do. I just think it's ridiculously unlikely that Stacy produces high VBD. Steven Jackson managed a whopping 46 VBD in St. Louis last year. No matter whether Stacy gets the lead role or not, Richardson/Pead are not going to just disappear- they'll hang around and eat enough into the workload to destroy Stacy's chance at accumulating big VBD totals. Over the last 5 years, RB18 has posted 39, 14, 25, 14, and 26 VBD, for an average of 23.6 a year. If Stacy is an average RB2, his expected VBD is nothing. It's chump change. It's peanuts. A single average WR2 season produces as much as a single average RB2 season in non-PPR (more in PPR); RBs are extremely valuable at the top precisely because the dropoff is so steep, and because middling RBs produce such weak value. Over the last five years, an average of 5.6 TEs a year have produced more VBD than the 18th best RB- a single top-5 season by Kelce, Reed, or Ertz would totally negate an RB2 season by Stacy.

If I thought Stacy had top 12 upside, I'd be a lot more excited about him, because when you get really high up in the RB rankings you start to produce truly difference-making VBD values. But if you're right, and the appeal of Zac Stacy is that he might get you a handful of RB2 seasons, I see absolutely nothing compelling about that from a VBD standpoint.

Can you unpack this a little? I'm not sure I follow this.

RB18 typically scores 23.6 VBD a year. On average, 5.6 tight ends produce more than 23.6 VBD a year. In other words, on average, the 5th or 6th best TE produces as much VBD as the 18th best RB, so a top-5 season from Jordan Reed should provide as much value as a middle-of-the-road RB2 finish from Zac Stacy. Obviously this is an average, and is not true every season- as few as 3 TEs and as many as 9 TEs might outscore RB18 in any given year.

 

[cstu]

I'm kinda curious why shanahan chose Chris Thompson over Stacy. If Stacy is all the things people in this thread are saying about him, I would think shanahan would have also been privy to this info and would have jumped all over him. I know this means very little in the grand scheme of things, but it does make you stop and think maybe there's just something that we as youtube scouts don't know about Stacy.

I would imagine he wanted a homerun hitter type over a RB that's similar to Morris.

That's very possible. Thompson and Stacy are not similar so you may be right. I'm so used to looking for best available from a fantasy perspective that I forget coaches try and fill specific roles sometimes.

I'm more interested in why Arizona took Stepfan over Stacy.

Because he's better?

It's only one team, but the Cowboys also had Taylor ahead of Stacy on their leaked draft board. Taylor is given a 4th round grade whereas Stacy is unlisted.

That's my point. It seems other than fantasy players no one is high on Stacy's talent.

 

[Biabreakable]

Please excuse wall of post but I need to make this clear. I can see how some might see the WR having more value if you are using the baselines for VBD posted on the website. I have used those numbers for this analysis so that we are at least (hopefully) speaking the same language. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/historical-rb-2002.php

1st of all I want to talk about the current trend of Nfl offensive plays being higher over the last decade than they have been previous to that.

This is a very strong trend and may be one that continues.


2012 17788pa 13925ra 31713 plays
2011 17410pa 13971ra 31381 plays
2010 17269pa 13920ra 31189 plays
2009 17033pa 14088ra 31121 plays
2008 16526pa 14119ra 30645 plays
2007 17045pa 13986ra 31031 plays
2006 16389pa 14447ra 30836 plays
2005 16464pa 14375ra 30839 plays
2004 16354pa 14428ra 30782 plays -enforcement of 5yd rule

2003 16493pa 14508ra 31001 plays
2002 17292pa 14102ra 31394 plays

2001 16181pa 13666ra 29847 plays
2000 16322pa 13677ra 29999 plays
1999 16760pa 13548ra 30308 plays
1998 15489pa 13568ra 29057 plays
1997 15729pa 13639ra 29368 plays
1996 15966pa 13594ra 29560 plays
1995 16699pa 13199ra 29898 plays

1994 15056pa 12550ra 27606 plays
1993 14414pa 12684ra 27098 plays
1992 13408pa 12291ra 25699 plays

In 1999 the Nfl broke the 30k total plays barrier and has not dipped lower than that once since 2002. 30k plays seems here to stay. 31k plays was broken 7 times out of the last 10 seasons. 31k actually looks more like the new floor being above that the last 4 seasons and 5 out of the last 6 seasons. This trend actually looks poised to possibly break the 32k mark. I think this is important because 1k plays = 31.25plays more a season on average for each team. Obviously some will have a whole extra game or so of stats while some may not progress at all or regress in play totals. The overall trend seems to be pushing towards 32k plays.

So for the RB/WR/TE comparisons in terms of VBD I looked at all seasons from 2002 so the last 11 years. This is also the time frame that reflects the total play range of 31-32k that I am expecting 2013 to be in.

The website numbers set baselines for RB at 24 and for WR at 30. While this may be a reasonable medium for leagues starting 2RB 2.5WR I do not think those are good baselines for comparing the value of rookie prospects or the players value relative to each other, in any format. The scarcity and demand for RB is such that leagues will roster many RB below the baseline while the values of WR cannot match this scarcity unless you are in a league that can start 4-6WR. I have looked at this a quite a bit before, recent years have been more favorable to WR/TE than they have in the past, passing attempts have been on the rise while rushing attempts have remained more steady. It is amazing to look back on the 90s and notice that not only are the rushing attempts lower than average the last decade, they are also much lower in passing attempts. The pie is just bigger for teams recently than it has been before. A lot of that has been going to TE and WR3 type players. While those players have more value in total points than they have in the past that does not mean they are more valuable in terms of VBD because there are more players in similar range that those players are competing with (for value) as well.

So what I did is while using FBG numbers I set the baseline for RB at 30, the same as WR (listing the top29). That way we are comparing players that should all be rostered and see at least spot starts at times for their FF teams during the season. The baseline starter at WR using this method scores on average 120pts. The baseline RB scores 140pts on average. I think these baselines are pretty close so I left them this way. I could see setting the WR baseline at 36 but I worry that the total points for the baseline WR would be below 100. That would also be a gap of about 2.5pts/game. As it is now they are close, only a little over 1pt/game difference. For TE I would set this at 20 for a start 1TE no flex league but did not do so yet. I could see tiering the players at 32VBD and 64VBD as those would be 2pt/game increments and perhaps a better way of comparing them than what I have done.

I mistakenly thought this was 10 seasons instead of 11. I think I fixed all the math on that. Strange days.

Data to follow.

 

[Biabreakable]

The Running Backs-

2012
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Adrian Peterson MIN 27 6 348 2097 12 40 217 1 309 201
2 Arian Foster HOU 26 4 351 1411 15 40 217 2 265 157
3 Doug Martin TB 23 1 319 1454 11 49 472 1 265 156
4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 26 6 315 1590 11 23 196 1 251 142
5 Alfred Morris WAS 24 1 335 1606 13 11 77 0 246 138
6 Ray Rice BAL 25 5 257 1143 9 61 478 1 222 114
7 C.J. Spiller BUF 25 3 207 1244 6 43 459 2 218 110
8 Jamaal Charles KC 26 5 284 1513 5 36 236 1 211 103
9 Trent RichardsonCLE 22 1 267 950 11 51 367 1 204 95
10 Stevan Ridley NE 23 2 290 1263 12 6 51 0 203 95
11 Frank Gore SF 29 8 259 1212 8 28 234 1 199 90
12 Chris Johnson TEN 27 5 276 1243 6 36 226 0 183 75
13 Matt Forte CHI 27 5 248 1094 5 44 340 1 179 71
14 Reggie Bush MIA 27 7 227 986 6 35 292 2 176 68
15 Shonn Greene NYJ 27 4 276 1063 8 19 151 0 169 61
16 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 26 6 221 1015 6 23 245 0 162 54
17 Steven Jackson STL 29 9 257 1042 4 38 321 0 160 52
18 Michael Turner ATL 30 9 223 803 10 19 128 1 159 51 18 RB over50vbd

19 BenJarvus Green-CIN 27 5 278 1094 6 22 104 0 156 48
20 Mikel Leshoure DET 22 2 215 798 9 34 214 0 155 47
21 LeSean McCoy PHI 24 4 200 840 2 54 373 3 151 43
22 Darren Sproles NO 29 8 48 244 1 75 667 7 139 31
23 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 29 7 173 737 5 13 187 2 134 26 5 RB 25-49vbd

24 Willis McGahee DEN 31 9 167 731 4 26 221 0 119 11
25 Danny Woodhead NE 27 5 76 301 4 40 446 3 117 9
26 DeMarco Murray DAL 24 2 161 663 4 34 247 0 115 7
27 Vick Ballard IND 22 1 211 814 2 17 152 1 115 7
28 Darren McFadden OAK 25 5 216 707 2 42 258 1 115 7
29 Joique Bell DET 26 3 82 414 3 52 485 0 108 0

2011
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Ray Rice BAL 24 4 291 1364 12 76 704 3 302 179
2 LeSean McCoy PHI 23 3 273 1309 17 48 315 3 282 160
3 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 26 6 343 1606 8 43 374 3 264 141
4 Arian Foster HOU 25 3 278 1224 10 53 617 2 256 134
5 Marshawn Lynch SEA 25 5 285 1204 12 28 212 1 220 97
6 Michael Turner ATL 29 8 301 1340 11 17 168 0 217 94
7 Ryan Mathews SD 24 2 222 1091 6 50 455 0 191 68
8 Adrian Peterson MIN 26 5 209 973 12 18 139 1 189 66
9 Michael Bush OAK 27 5 256 977 7 37 418 1 188 65
10 Darren Sproles NO 28 7 87 603 2 86 710 7 185 62
11 Steven Jackson STL 28 8 260 1145 5 42 333 1 184 61
12 Frank Gore SF 28 7 282 1211 8 17 114 0 181 58
13 Reggie Bush MIA 26 6 216 1086 6 43 296 1 180 57
14 Fred Jackson BUF 30 5 170 934 6 39 442 0 174 51
15 Matt Forte CHI 26 4 203 997 3 52 490 1 173 50 15 RB over50vbd

16 Chris Johnson TEN 26 4 262 1047 4 57 418 0 171 48
17 Chris Wells ARI 23 3 245 1047 10 10 52 0 170 47
18 Shonn Greene NYJ 26 3 253 1054 6 30 211 0 163 40
19 Rashard MendenhaPIT 24 4 228 928 9 18 154 0 162 39
20 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 25 5 171 659 9 34 267 2 159 37
21 Willis McGahee DEN 30 8 249 1199 4 12 51 1 155 33
22 Mike Tolbert SD 26 4 120 492 8 54 433 2 153 31
23 Cedric Benson CIN 29 7 273 1067 6 15 82 0 151 29
24 BenJarvus Green-NE 26 4 181 667 11 9 159 0 149 27
25 Jonathan StewartCAR 24 4 142 761 4 47 413 1 147 25 10 RB 25-49vbd

26 DeAngelo WilliamsCAR 28 6 155 836 7 16 135 0 139 16
27 Pierre Thomas NO 27 5 110 562 5 50 425 1 135 12
28 Ben Tate HOU 23 2 175 942 4 13 98 0 128 5
29 LeGarrette BlountTB 25 2 184 781 5 15 148 0 123 0

2010
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Arian Foster HOU 24 2 326 1614 16 66 604 2 330 201
2 Peyton Hillis CLE 24 3 270 1177 11 61 477 2 244 115
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 25 4 283 1298 12 36 341 1 242 113
4 Jamaal Charles KC 24 3 230 1467 5 45 468 3 242 113
5 Chris Johnson TEN 25 3 316 1364 11 44 245 1 233 104
6 Darren McFadden OAK 23 3 223 1157 7 47 507 3 226 97
7 Rashard MendenhaPIT 23 3 324 1274 13 23 167 0 222 93
8 LeSean McCoy PHI 22 2 207 1080 7 78 592 2 221 92
9 Michael Turner ATL 28 7 334 1371 12 12 85 0 218 89
10 Matt Forte CHI 25 3 237 1069 6 51 547 3 216 87
11 Ray Rice BAL 23 3 308 1223 5 63 556 1 214 85
12 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 25 5 299 1324 5 34 317 2 204 75
13 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 24 4 276 1235 8 47 314 0 203 74
14 Steven Jackson STL 27 7 330 1241 6 46 383 0 198 69
15 BenJarvus Green-NE 25 3 229 1008 13 12 85 0 187 58 15 RB over50vbd

16 Cedric Benson CIN 28 6 321 1111 7 28 178 1 177 48
17 LaDainian TomlinNYJ 31 10 219 914 6 52 368 0 164 35
18 Knowshon Moreno DEN 23 2 182 779 5 37 372 3 163 34
19 Mike Tolbert SD 25 3 182 735 11 25 216 0 161 32
20 Frank Gore SF 27 6 203 853 3 46 452 2 161 32
21 Fred Jackson BUF 29 4 222 927 5 31 215 2 156 27 6 Rb25-49vbd

22 Brandon Jacobs NYG 28 6 147 823 9 7 59 0 142 13
23 Jahvid Best DET 21 1 172 563 4 58 487 2 141 12
24 LeGarrette BlounTB 24 1 201 1007 6 5 14 0 138 9
25 Thomas Jones KC 32 11 245 896 6 14 122 0 138 9
26 Felix Jones DAL 23 3 185 800 1 48 450 1 137 8
27 Michael Bush OAK 26 4 158 655 8 18 194 0 133 4
28 Danny Woodhead NE/NYJ 25 3 97 547 5 34 379 1 129 0
29 Brandon Jackson GB 25 4 190 703 3 43 342 1 129 0

2009
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Chris Johnson TEN 24 2 358 2006 14 50 503 2 347 207
2 Adrian Peterson MIN 24 3 315 1389 18 43 436 0 291 150
3 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 24 4 312 1391 15 53 374 1 273 132
4 Ray Rice BAL 22 2 254 1339 7 78 702 1 252 112
5 Frank Gore SF 26 5 229 1120 10 52 406 3 231 90
6 Thomas Jones NYJ 31 10 332 1402 14 10 58 0 230 90
7 Ricky Williams MIA 32 11 241 1121 11 35 264 2 215 74
8 Ryan Grant GB 27 5 282 1253 11 25 197 0 211 61
9 Joseph Addai IND 26 4 219 828 10 51 336 3 201 60
10 Steven Jackson STL 26 6 325 1424 4 50 314 0 198 58
11 Jonathan Stewar CAR 22 2 221 1133 10 18 139 1 193 53
12 Jamaal Charles KC 23 2 190 1120 7 40 297 1 190 50 12 RB over 50vbd

13 Rashard MendenhaPIT 22 2 242 1108 7 25 261 1 185 45
14 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 26 4 216 1117 7 29 252 0 179 39
15 Fred Jackson BUF 28 3 238 1062 2 46 371 2 174 33
16 Cedric Benson CIN 27 5 301 1251 6 17 111 0 172 32
17 Knowshon Moreno DEN 22 1 247 947 7 28 213 2 170 30 5 RB 25-49vbd

18 Matt Forte CHI 24 2 258 929 4 57 471 0 164 24
19 LaDainian TomlinSD 30 9 223 730 12 20 154 0 160 20
20 Pierre Thomas NO 25 3 147 793 6 39 302 2 158 18
21 Marion Barber DAL 26 5 214 932 7 26 221 0 157 17
22 Tim Hightower ARI 23 2 143 598 8 63 428 0 151 11
23 Michael Turner ATL 27 6 178 871 10 5 35 0 151 11
24 Jerome Harrison CLE 26 4 194 862 5 34 220 2 150 10
25 Willis McGahee BAL 28 6 109 544 12 15 85 2 147 7
26 Kevin Smith DET 23 2 217 747 4 40 409 1 146 6
27 Cadillac WilliamsTB 27 5 209 816 4 29 219 3 146 6
28 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 23 3 163 778 7 21 207 0 141 1
29 Laurence MaroneyNE 24 4 194 757 9 14 99 0 140 0

2008
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 DeAngelo WilliamCAR 25 3 274 1518 18 22 121 2 284 154
2 Michael Turner ATL 26 5 377 1699 17 6 41 0 276 146
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 23 2 363 1760 10 21 125 0 249 119
4 Matt Forte CHI 23 1 316 1238 8 63 477 4 244 114
5 Thomas Jones NYJ 30 9 290 1312 13 36 207 2 242 112
6 Steve Slaton HOU 22 1 268 1282 9 50 377 1 226 96
7 LaDainian TomlinSD 29 8 292 1110 11 52 426 1 226 96
8 Clinton Portis WAS 27 7 342 1487 9 28 218 0 225 95
9 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 23 3 197 824 12 62 565 2 223 93
10 Brian Westbrook PHI 29 7 233 936 9 54 402 5 218 88
11 Chris Johnson TEN 23 1 251 1228 9 43 260 1 209 79
12 Brandon Jacobs NYG 26 4 219 1089 15 6 36 0 203 73
13 Steven Jackson STL 25 5 254 1043 7 40 379 1 190 60
14 Frank Gore SF 25 4 240 1036 6 43 373 2 189 59
15 Marshawn Lynch BUF 22 2 250 1036 8 47 300 1 188 58
16 Marion Barber DAL 25 4 238 885 7 52 417 2 184 54
17 Ronnie Brown MIA 27 4 214 916 10 33 254 0 184 54 17 RB over 50vbd

18 Kevin Smith DET 22 1 238 976 8 39 286 0 174 44
19 LenDale White TEN 24 3 200 773 15 5 16 0 169 39
20 LeRon McClain BAL 24 2 232 902 10 19 123 1 169 39
21 Pierre Thomas NO 24 2 129 625 9 31 284 3 163 33
22 Ryan Grant GB 26 4 312 1203 4 18 116 1 162 32 5 RB 25-49vbd

23 Derrick Ward NYG 28 5 182 1025 2 41 384 0 153 23
24 Jonathan StewartCAR 21 1 183 833 10 8 47 0 148 18
25 Jamal Lewis CLE 29 9 279 1002 4 23 178 0 142 12
26 Dominic Rhodes IND 29 8 152 538 6 45 302 3 138 8
27 Kevin Faulk NE 32 10 83 507 3 58 486 3 135 5
28 Sammy Morris NE 31 9 156 727 7 17 161 0 131 1
29 Larry Johnson KC 29 6 193 874 5 12 74 0 130 0

2007
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 LaDainian TomlinSD 28 7 315 1474 15 60 475 3 309 184
2 Brian Westbrook PHI 28 6 278 1333 7 90 771 5 282 158
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 22 1 238 1341 12 19 268 1 239 114
4 Clinton Portis WAS 26 6 325 1262 11 47 389 0 237 112
5 Joseph Addai IND 24 2 261 1072 12 41 364 3 234 109
6 Jamal Lewis CLE 28 8 298 1304 9 30 248 2 221 96
7 Marion Barber DAL 24 3 204 975 10 44 282 2 198 84
8 Willis McGahee BAL 26 4 294 1207 7 43 231 1 192 67
9 Frank Gore SF 24 3 260 1102 5 53 436 1 190 65
10 Edgerrin James ARI 29 9 324 1232 7 25 196 0 185 60
11 Earnest Graham TB 27 4 222 898 10 49 324 0 182 57
12 Marshawn Lynch BUF 21 1 280 1115 7 18 184 0 177 53 12 RB over 50vbd

13 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 22 2 167 768 9 40 407 0 172 47
14 Steven Jackson STL 24 4 237 1002 5 38 271 1 168 44
15 LenDale White TEN 23 2 304 1108 7 20 114 0 164 39
16 Willie Parker PIT 27 4 321 1316 2 23 164 0 160 35
17 Ryan Grant GB 25 3 188 956 8 30 147 0 158 34
18 Fred Taylor JAX 31 10 223 1202 5 9 58 0 156 31
19 Kenny Watson CIN 29 6 178 763 7 52 374 0 156 31
20 Brandon Jacobs NYG 25 3 201 1011 4 23 174 2 155 30
21 Chester Taylor MIN 28 6 157 844 7 29 281 0 155 30 9 RB 25-49vbd

22 Thomas Jones NYJ 29 8 310 1119 1 28 217 1 146 21
23 Justin Fargas OAK 27 5 222 1009 4 23 188 0 144 19
24 Reggie Bush NO 22 2 157 581 4 73 417 2 136 11
25 Laurence MaroneyNE 22 2 185 835 6 4 116 0 131 6
26 DeShaun Foster CAR 27 6 247 876 3 25 182 1 130 5
27 Ronnie Brown MIA 26 3 119 602 4 39 389 1 129 4
28 Kevin Jones DET 25 4 153 581 8 33 199 0 126 1
29 Ron Dayne HOU 29 8 194 773 6 17 112 0 125 0


2006
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 LaDainian TomlinSD 27 6 348 1815 28 56 508 3 429 293
2 Larry Johnson KC 27 4 416 1789 17 41 410 2 334 198
3 Steven Jackson STL 23 3 346 1528 13 90 806 3 329 193
4 Frank Gore SF 23 2 312 1695 8 61 485 1 272 136
5 Willie Parker PIT 26 3 337 1494 13 31 222 3 268 132
6 Brian Westbrook PHI 27 5 240 1217 7 77 699 4 258 122
7 Tiki Barber NYG 31 10 327 1662 5 58 465 0 243 107
8 Maurice Jones-DrJAX 21 1 166 941 13 46 436 2 228 92
9 Rudi Johnson CIN 27 5 341 1309 12 23 124 0 215 79
10 Ladell Betts WAS 27 5 245 1154 4 53 445 1 190 54
11 Joseph Addai IND 23 1 226 1081 7 40 325 1 189 53
12 Chester Taylor MIN 27 5 303 1216 6 42 288 0 186 50
13 Deuce McAllisterNO 28 6 244 1057 10 30 198 0 186 50 13 RB over 50vbd

14 Marion Barber DAL 23 2 135 654 14 23 196 2 181 45
15 Ahman Green GB 29 9 266 1059 5 46 373 1 179 43
16 Jamal Lewis BAL 27 7 314 1132 9 18 115 0 179 43
17 Reggie Bush NO 21 1 155 565 6 88 742 2 177 41
18 Fred Taylor JAX 30 9 231 1146 5 23 242 1 175 39
19 Corey Dillon NE 32 10 199 812 13 15 147 0 174 38
20 Edgerrin James ARI 28 8 337 1159 6 38 217 0 174 38
21 Thomas Jones CHI 28 7 296 1210 6 36 154 0 172 36
22 Travis Henry TEN 28 6 270 1211 7 18 78 0 171 35
23 Kevin Jones DET 24 3 181 689 6 61 520 2 169 33
24 Warrick Dunn ATL 31 10 286 1140 4 22 170 1 161 25 10 RB 25-49vbd

25 Ronnie Brown MIA 25 2 241 1008 5 33 276 0 158 22
26 Willis McGahee BUF 25 3 259 990 6 18 156 0 151 15
27 Julius Jones DAL 25 3 267 1084 4 9 142 0 147 11
28 Shaun Alexander SEA 29 7 252 896 7 12 48 0 136 0
29 Laurence MaroneyNE 21 1 175 745 6 22 194 1 136 0

2005
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Shaun Alexander SEA 28 6 370 1880 27 15 78 1 364 249
2 Larry Johnson KC 26 3 336 1750 20 33 343 1 335 220
3 LaDainian TomlinSD 26 5 339 1462 18 51 370 2 321 205
4 Tiki Barber NYG 30 9 357 1860 9 54 530 2 305 190
5 Edgerrin James IND 27 7 360 1506 13 44 337 1 268 153
6 Clinton Portis WAS 24 4 352 1516 11 30 216 0 245 130
7 Rudi Johnson CIN 26 4 337 1458 12 23 90 0 227 112
8 LaMont Jordan OAK 27 5 272 1025 9 70 563 2 225 110
9 Thomas Jones CHI 27 6 314 1335 9 26 143 0 202 87
10 Mike Anderson DEN 32 6 239 1014 12 18 212 1 201 86
11 Steven Jackson STL 22 2 254 1046 8 43 320 2 197 82
12 Warrick Dunn ATL 30 9 280 1416 3 29 220 1 188 73
13 Willis McGahee BUF 24 2 325 1247 5 28 178 0 173 58
14 Reuben Droughns CLE 27 5 309 1232 2 39 369 0 172 57
15 Willie Parker PIT 25 2 255 1202 4 18 218 1 172 57
16 Corey Dillon NE 31 9 209 733 12 22 181 1 169 54
17 Domanick WilliamHOU 25 3 230 976 2 39 337 4 167 52
18 Brian Westbrook PHI 26 4 156 617 3 61 616 4 165 50 18 RB over 50vbd

19 Cadillac WilliamTB 23 1 290 1178 6 20 81 0 162 47
20 Chris Brown TEN 24 3 224 851 5 25 327 2 160 45
21 Julius Jones DAL 24 2 257 993 5 35 218 0 151 36
22 Tatum Bell DEN 24 2 173 921 8 18 104 0 151 35
23 Ronnie Brown MIA 24 1 207 907 4 32 232 1 144 29
24 DeShaun Foster CAR 25 4 205 879 2 34 372 1 143 28 6 RB 25-49vbd

25 Jamal Lewis BAL 26 6 269 906 3 32 191 1 134 19
26 Stephen Davis CAR 31 10 180 549 12 5 45 0 131 16
27 Ricky Williams MIA 28 7 168 743 6 17 93 0 120 5
28 Mewelde Moore MIN 23 2 155 662 1 37 339 2 118 3
29 Curtis Martin NYJ 32 11 220 735 5 24 118 0 115 0

2004
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Shaun Alexander SEA 27 5 353 1696 16 23 170 4 307 175
2 Tiki Barber NYG 29 8 322 1518 13 52 578 2 300 168
3 LaDainian TomlinSD 25 4 339 1335 17 53 441 1 288 156
4 Curtis Martin NYJ 31 10 371 1697 12 41 245 2 278 146
5 Domanick WilliamHOU 24 2 302 1188 13 68 588 1 262 130
6 Edgerrin James IND 26 6 334 1548 9 51 483 0 257 125
7 Corey Dillon NE 30 8 345 1635 12 15 103 1 252 120
8 Rudi Johnson CIN 25 3 361 1454 12 15 84 0 226 94
9 Willis McGahee BUF 23 1 284 1128 13 22 169 0 208 76
10 Brian Westbrook PHI 25 3 177 812 3 73 703 6 206 74
11 Clinton Portis WAS 23 3 343 1315 5 40 235 2 203 71
12 Priest Holmes KC 31 8 196 892 14 19 187 1 198 66
13 Ahman Green GB 27 7 259 1163 7 40 275 1 198 66
14 Reuben Droughns DEN 26 4 275 1240 6 32 241 2 196 64
15 Warrick Dunn ATL 29 8 265 1106 9 29 294 0 194 62
16 Michael Pittman TB 29 7 219 926 7 41 391 3 192 60
17 Deuce McAllisterNO 26 4 269 1074 9 34 228 0 184 52
18 Jerome Bettis PIT 32 12 250 941 13 6 46 0 182 50 18 Rb over 50vbd

19 Thomas Jones CHI 26 5 240 948 7 56 427 0 180 48
20 Fred Taylor JAX 28 7 260 1224 2 36 345 1 175 43
21 Kevin Jones DET 22 1 241 1133 5 28 180 1 167 35
22 Emmitt Smith ARI 35 15 267 937 9 15 105 0 164 32
23 Nick Goings CAR 26 4 217 821 6 45 394 1 164 32
24 Chris Brown TEN 23 2 220 1067 6 20 147 0 157 25

25 Jamal Lewis BAL 25 5 235 1006 7 10 116 0 154 22
26 Larry Johnson KC 25 2 120 581 9 22 278 2 152 20
27 Kevan Barlow SF 25 4 244 822 7 35 212 0 145 13
28 Julius Jones DAL 23 1 197 819 7 17 109 0 135 3
29 Marshall Faulk STL 31 11 195 774 3 50 310 1 132 0

2003
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Priest Holmes KC 30 7 320 1420 27 74 690 0 373 251
2 LaDainian TomlinSD 24 3 313 1645 13 100 725 4 345 223
3 Ahman Green GB 26 6 355 1883 15 50 367 5 345 223
4 Jamal Lewis BAL 24 4 387 2066 14 26 205 0 311 189
5 Clinton Portis DEN 22 2 290 1591 14 38 314 0 275 153
6 Shaun Alexander SEA 26 4 326 1435 14 42 295 2 269 147
7 Deuce McAllisterNO 25 3 351 1641 8 69 516 0 264 142
8 Fred Taylor JAX 27 6 345 1572 6 48 370 1 236 114
9 Ricky Williams MIA 26 5 392 1372 9 50 351 1 232 110
10 Edgerrin James IND 25 5 310 1259 11 51 292 0 221 99
11 Travis Henry BUF 25 3 331 1356 10 28 158 1 215 93
12 Stephen Davis CAR 29 8 318 1444 8 14 159 0 208 86
13 Moe Williams MIN 29 8 174 745 5 65 644 3 187 65
14 Domanick WilliamHOU 23 1 238 1031 8 47 351 0 186 64
15 Tiki Barber NYG 28 7 278 1216 2 69 461 1 186 64
16 Marshall Faulk STL 30 10 209 818 10 45 290 1 177 55
17 Kevan Barlow SF 24 3 201 1024 6 35 307 1 175 53 17 RB over 50vbd

18 Curtis Martin NYJ 30 9 323 1308 2 42 262 0 169 47
19 Rudi Johnson CIN 24 2 215 957 9 21 146 0 164 42
20 Brian Westbrook PHI 24 2 117 613 7 37 332 4 161 39
21 T.J. Duckett ATL 22 2 197 779 11 11 94 0 153 31
22 Eddie George TEN 30 8 312 1031 5 22 163 0 149 27
23 Michael Pittman TB 28 6 187 751 0 75 597 2 147 25 6 RB 25-49vbd

24 Anthony Thomas CHI 26 3 244 1024 6 9 36 0 142 20
25 Troy Hambrick DAL 27 4 275 972 5 17 99 0 137 15
26 Jerome Bettis PIT 31 11 246 811 7 13 86 0 132 10
27 Warrick Dunn ATL 28 7 125 672 3 37 336 2 131 9
28 Duce Staley PHI 28 7 96 463 5 36 382 2 127 5
29 Garrison Hearst SF 32 10 178 768 3 25 211 1 122 0

2002
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Priest Holmes KC 29 6 313 1615 21 70 672 3 373 240
2 Ricky Williams MIA 25 4 383 1853 16 47 363 1 324 191
3 LaDainian TomlinSD 23 2 372 1683 14 79 489 1 307 175
4 Clinton Portis DEN 21 1 273 1508 15 33 364 2 289 157
5 Shaun Alexander SEA 25 3 295 1175 16 59 460 2 272 139
6 Deuce McAllisterNO 24 2 325 1388 13 47 352 3 270 137
7 Tiki Barber NYG 27 6 303 1386 11 69 597 0 264 131
8 Travis Henry BUF 24 2 325 1438 13 43 309 1 259 126
9 Charlie Garner OAK 30 9 182 962 7 91 941 4 256 123
10 Eddie George TEN 29 7 343 1165 12 36 255 2 226 93
11 Fred Taylor JAX 26 5 287 1314 8 49 408 0 220 87
12 Jamal Lewis BAL 23 3 308 1327 6 47 442 1 219 86
13 Ahman Green GB 25 5 286 1240 7 57 393 2 217 84
14 Marshall Faulk STL 29 9 212 953 8 80 537 2 209 76
15 Duce Staley PHI 27 6 269 1029 5 51 541 3 205 72
16 Corey Dillon CIN 28 6 314 1311 7 43 298 0 203 70
17 Michael Bennett MIN 24 2 255 1296 5 37 351 1 201 68
18 Curtis Martin NYJ 29 8 261 1094 7 49 362 0 188 55
19 Warrick Dunn ATL 27 6 230 927 7 50 377 2 184 52
20 Garrison Hearst SF 31 9 215 972 8 48 317 1 183 51 20 RB over 50vbd

21 Marcel Shipp ARI 24 1 188 834 6 38 413 3 179 46
22 James Stewart DET 31 8 231 1021 4 46 333 2 171 39
23 Antowain Smith NE 30 6 252 982 6 31 243 2 171 38 3 RB 25-49vbd

24 Edgerrin James IND 24 4 277 989 2 61 354 1 152 19
25 Stephen Davis WAS 28 7 207 820 7 23 142 1 144 11
26 Emmitt Smith DAL 33 13 254 975 5 16 89 0 136 3
27 William Green CLE 23 1 243 887 6 16 113 0 136 3
28 Amos Zereoue PIT 26 4 193 762 4 42 341 0 134 1
29 Moe Williams MIN 28 7 84 414 11 27 251 0 133 0

175 RB scored over 50vbd so 16 RB/season on average. This is 5 more RB/season scoring 50vbd than the 120 11/season WR.

There were 71 RB that scored 25-49vbd. This is 19 less than the WR scoring in this range. This means 1.9 more WR/season than RB score as a WR2-3

The total successful players (25vbd or better season) at RB is 246 compared to 210 at WR.

 

[Biabreakable]

The WR-

2012
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Calvin Johnson DET 27 6 0 0 0 122 1964 5 226 108
2 Brandon MarshallCHI 28 7 1 -2 0 118 1508 11 217 98
3 Dez Bryant DAL 24 3 2 -5 0 92 1382 12 210 91
4 A.J. Green CIN 24 2 4 38 0 97 1350 11 205 86
5 Demaryius ThomasDEN 25 3 0 0 0 94 1442 10 204 86
6 Vincent Jackson TB 29 8 0 0 0 72 1384 8 186 68
7 Eric Decker DEN 25 3 0 0 0 85 1064 13 184 66
8 Andre Johnson HOU 31 10 0 0 0 112 1598 4 184 65
9 Julio Jones ATL 23 2 6 30 0 79 1198 10 183 64
10 Roddy White ATL 31 8 0 0 0 92 1351 7 177 58
11 Marques Colston NO 29 7 0 0 0 83 1154 10 175 57
12 Wes Welker NE 31 9 2 20 0 118 1354 6 173 55
13 Victor Cruz NYG 26 3 0 0 0 86 1092 10 169 51 13wr above 50vbd

14 Michael CrabtreeSF 25 4 1 8 0 85 1105 9 165 47
15 Reggie Wayne IND 34 12 1 -5 0 106 1355 5 165 46
16 James Jones GB 28 6 0 0 0 64 784 14 162 44
17 Randall Cobb GB 22 2 10 132 0 80 954 8 157 38
18 Mike Williams TB 25 3 0 0 0 63 996 9 155 36
19 Steve Smith CAR 33 12 3 27 0 73 1174 4 144 25 6wr 25-49vbd

20 Steve Johnson BUF 26 5 0 0 0 79 1046 6 141 22
21 Lance Moore NO 29 8 0 0 0 65 1041 6 140 21
22 Cecil Shorts JAX 25 2 1 -4 0 55 979 7 140 21
23 Torrey Smith BAL 23 2 3 9 0 49 855 8 134 16
24 Mike Wallace PIT 26 4 5 7 0 64 838 8 133 14
25 T.Y. Hilton IND 23 1 5 29 0 50 861 7 131 12
26 Miles Austin DAL 28 7 0 0 0 66 943 6 130 12
27 Jeremy Maclin PHI 24 4 0 0 0 69 857 7 128 9

2011
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Calvin Johnson DET 26 5 1 11 0 96 1681 16 265 149
2 Jordy Nelson GB 26 4 0 0 0 68 1263 15 216 100
3 Wes Welker NE 30 8 4 30 0 122 1569 9 214 98
4 Victor Cruz NYG 25 2 1 3 0 82 1536 9 208 92
5 Larry FitzgeraldARI 28 8 0 0 0 80 1411 8 189 73
6 Steve Smith CAR 32 11 6 56 0 79 1394 7 187 71
7 Percy Harvin MIN 23 3 51 342 2 87 967 6 179 63
8 Roddy White ATL 30 7 0 0 0 100 1296 8 178 62
9 Mike Wallace PIT 25 3 5 57 0 72 1193 8 173 57
10 Vincent Jackson SD 28 7 3 51 0 60 1106 9 170 54 10wr above 50vbd

11 Marques Colston NO 28 6 0 0 0 80 1143 8 162 46
12 Hakeem Nicks NYG 23 3 0 0 0 75 1169 7 159 43
13 Brandon MarshallMIA 27 6 0 0 0 82 1227 6 159 43
14 A.J. Green CIN 23 1 5 53 0 65 1057 7 153 37
15 Laurent RobinsonDAL 26 5 0 0 0 54 858 11 152 36
16 Nate Washington TEN 28 7 2 5 1 74 1023 7 151 35
17 Julio Jones ATL 22 1 6 56 0 54 959 8 150 33
18 Greg Jennings GB 28 6 0 0 0 67 949 9 149 33
19 Dez Bryant DAL 23 2 1 5 0 63 928 9 147 31
20 Dwayne Bowe KC 27 5 1 12 0 81 1159 5 147 31
21 Steve Johnson BUF 25 4 0 0 0 76 1004 7 142 26 11wr 25-49vbd

22 Pierre Garcon IND 26 4 4 28 0 70 947 6 134 17
23 Torrey Smith BAL 22 1 4 39 0 50 841 7 130 14
24 Antonio Brown PIT 23 2 7 41 0 69 1108 2 127 11
25 Brandon Lloyd DEN/STL 30 9 0 0 0 70 966 5 127 11
26 Jabar Gaffney WAS 31 10 0 0 0 68 947 5 125 9
27 DeSean Jackson PHI 25 4 7 41 0 58 961 4 124 8
28 Darrius Heyward OAK 24 3 0 0 0 64 975 4 122 5
29 Reggie Wayne IND 33 11 0 0 0 75 960 4 120 4

2010
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Brandon Lloyd DEN 29 8 1 -18 0 77 1448 11 209 92
2 Dwayne Bowe KC 26 4 1 4 0 72 1162 15 207 89
3 Roddy White ATL 29 6 1 3 0 115 1389 10 199 82
4 Greg Jennings GB 27 5 1 -1 0 76 1265 12 198 81
5 Mike Wallace PIT 24 2 5 39 0 60 1257 10 190 72
6 Calvin Johnson DET 25 4 4 32 0 77 1120 12 187 70
7 Reggie Wayne IND 32 10 0 0 0 111 1355 6 172 54
8 Hakeem Nicks NYG 22 2 0 0 0 79 1052 11 171 54
9 Andre Johnson HOU 29 8 2 10 0 86 1216 8 171 53
10 Steve Johnson BUF 24 3 0 0 0 82 1073 10 167 50 10wr above 50vbd

11 Mike Williams TB 23 1 0 0 0 65 964 11 162 45
12 Miles Austin DAL 26 5 7 93 1 69 1041 7 161 44
13 Jeremy Maclin PHI 22 2 3 36 0 70 964 10 160 43
14 DeSean Jackson PHI 24 3 16 104 1 47 1056 6 158 41
15 Terrell Owens CIN 37 15 0 0 0 72 983 9 152 35
16 Larry FitzgeraldARI 27 7 0 0 0 90 1137 6 150 32
17 Mario ManninghamNYG 24 3 1 2 0 60 944 9 149 31
18 Santana Moss WAS 31 10 5 -6 0 93 1115 6 147 30
19 Marques Colston NO 27 5 1 1 0 84 1022 7 144 27 9wr 25-49vbd

20 Percy Harvin MIN 22 2 18 107 1 71 868 5 134 16
21 Braylon Edwards NYJ 27 6 1 4 0 53 904 7 133 15
22 Kenny Britt TEN 22 2 0 0 0 42 775 9 132 14
23 Wes Welker NE 29 7 0 0 0 86 848 7 127 9
24 Johnny Knox CHI 24 2 1 2 0 51 960 5 126 9
25 Anquan Boldin BAL 30 8 2 2 0 64 837 7 126 8
26 Lance Moore NO 27 6 0 0 0 66 763 8 124 7
27 Derrick Mason BAL 36 14 0 0 0 61 802 7 122 5
28 Brandon MarshallMIA 26 5 2 3 0 86 1014 3 120 2

2009
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Andre Johnson HOU 28 7 2 10 0 101 1569 9 212 100
2 Randy Moss NE 32 12 0 0 0 83 1264 13 204 92
3 Miles Austin DAL 25 4 2 -2 0 81 1320 11 198 86
4 DeSean Jackson PHI 23 2 11 137 1 63 1167 9 190 78
5 Larry FitzgeraldARI 26 6 0 0 0 97 1092 13 187 75
6 Reggie Wayne IND 31 9 0 0 0 100 1264 10 184 72
7 Roddy White ATL 28 5 1 2 0 85 1153 11 182 69
8 Sidney Rice MIN 23 3 0 0 0 83 1312 8 179 67
9 Brandon MarshallDEN 25 4 7 39 0 101 1120 10 176 64
10 Vincent Jackson SD 26 5 3 11 0 68 1167 9 172 60
11 Steve Smith NYG 24 3 0 0 0 107 1220 7 164 52
12 Wes Welker NE 28 6 5 36 0 123 1348 4 162 50
13 Marques Colston NO 26 4 1 6 0 70 1074 9 162 50
14 Chad Johnson CIN 31 9 3 32 0 72 1047 9 162 50 14wr above 50vbd

15 Santonio Holmes PIT 25 4 3 6 0 79 1248 5 153 41
16 Hines Ward PIT 33 12 0 0 0 95 1167 6 153 40
17 Derrick Mason BAL 35 13 1 2 0 73 1028 7 145 33
18 Donald Driver GB 34 11 1 13 0 70 1061 6 143 31
19 Steve Smith CAR 30 9 5 22 0 65 982 7 142 30 5wr 25-49vbd

20 Greg Jennings GB 26 4 0 0 0 69 1120 4 136 24
21 Calvin Johnson DET 24 3 7 73 0 67 984 5 136 23
22 Robert Meachem NO 25 3 6 82 0 45 722 9 134 22
23 Anquan Boldin ARI 29 7 2 7 0 85 1029 5 134 21
24 Mike Sims-WalkerJAX 25 3 0 0 0 63 869 7 129 17
25 Percy Harvin MIN 21 1 15 135 0 60 790 6 129 16
26 Terrell Owens BUF 36 14 6 54 1 55 829 5 124 12
27 Chris Chambers KC/SD 31 9 0 0 0 54 852 6 121 9
28 Mike Wallace PIT 23 1 5 48 0 39 756 6 116 4
29 Hakeem Nicks NYG 21 1 2 8 0 47 790 6 116 4

2008
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Larry FitzgeraldARI 25 5 0 0 0 96 1431 12 215 99
2 Andre Johnson HOU 27 6 0 0 0 115 1575 8 206 89
3 Calvin Johnson DET 23 2 3 -1 0 78 1331 12 205 88
4 Greg Jennings GB 25 3 0 0 0 80 1292 9 183 67
5 Steve Smith CAR 29 8 5 40 0 78 1421 6 182 66
6 Roddy White ATL 27 4 2 4 0 88 1382 7 181 64
7 Anquan Boldin ARI 28 6 9 67 0 89 1038 11 177 60
8 Antonio Bryant TB 27 7 2 22 0 83 1248 7 169 52
9 Terrell Owens DAL 35 13 7 33 0 69 1052 10 169 52
10 Randy Moss NE 31 11 2 0 0 69 1008 11 167 50 10wr above 50vbd

11 Brandon MarshallDEN 24 3 2 -4 0 104 1265 6 162 46
12 Vincent Jackson SD 25 4 4 69 0 59 1098 7 159 42
13 Lance Moore NO 25 4 0 0 0 79 928 10 151 34
14 Reggie Wayne IND 30 8 0 0 0 82 1145 6 151 34
15 Hines Ward PIT 32 11 1 4 0 81 1043 7 147 30
16 Dwayne Bowe KC 24 2 0 0 0 86 1022 7 144 28
17 Santana Moss WAS 29 8 1 27 0 79 1044 6 143 27 7wr 25-49vbd

18 Bernard Berrian MIN 28 5 4 26 0 48 964 7 141 24
19 Kevin Walter HOU 27 6 3 23 0 60 899 8 140 24
20 Eddie Royal DEN 22 1 11 109 0 91 980 5 139 22
21 Wes Welker NE 27 5 3 26 0 111 1165 3 137 21
22 Derrick Mason BAL 34 12 1 3 0 80 1037 5 134 17
23 Donald Driver GB 33 10 2 4 0 74 1012 5 132 15
24 Laveranues ColesNYJ 31 9 2 9 0 70 850 7 128 11
25 Isaac Bruce SF 36 15 1 -3 0 60 833 7 125 8
26 Muhsin Muhammad CAR 35 13 0 0 0 65 923 5 122 6
27 Lee Evans BUF 27 5 1 22 0 63 1017 3 122 5
28 Steve Breaston ARI 25 2 2 8 0 77 1006 3 119 3

2007
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Randy Moss NE 30 10 0 0 0 98 1493 23 287 170
2 Terrell Owens DAL 34 12 1 5 0 81 1355 15 226 109
3 Braylon Edwards CLE 24 3 0 0 0 80 1289 16 225 108
4 Reggie Wayne IND 29 7 1 4 0 104 1510 10 211 94
5 Larry FitzgeraldARI 24 4 0 0 0 100 1409 10 201 84
6 Chad Johnson CIN 29 7 6 47 0 93 1440 8 197 79
7 T.J. HoushmandzaCIN 30 7 5 14 0 112 1143 12 188 70
8 Marques Colston NO 24 2 0 0 0 98 1202 11 186 69
9 Brandon MarshallDEN 23 2 5 57 0 102 1325 7 180 63
10 Plaxico Burress NYG 30 8 0 0 0 70 1025 12 175 57
11 Wes Welker NE 26 4 4 34 0 112 1175 8 169 52 11wr above 50vbd

12 Greg Jennings GB 24 2 0 0 0 53 920 12 164 47
13 Torry Holt STL 31 9 0 0 0 93 1189 7 161 44
14 Roddy White ATL 26 3 1 -2 0 83 1202 6 156 39
15 Bobby Engram SEA 34 12 0 0 0 94 1147 6 151 33
16 Steve Smith CAR 28 7 9 66 0 87 1002 7 149 32
17 Kevin Curtis PHI 29 5 0 0 0 77 1110 6 147 30
18 Santonio Holmes PIT 23 2 5 17 0 52 942 8 144 27 7wr 25-49vbd

19 Anquan Boldin ARI 27 5 1 14 0 71 853 9 141 23
20 Derrick Mason BAL 33 11 0 0 0 103 1087 5 139 21
21 Joey Galloway TB 36 13 1 1 0 57 1014 6 138 20
22 Andre Johnson HOU 26 5 0 0 0 60 851 8 133 16
23 Shaun McDonald DET 26 5 4 2 0 79 943 6 131 13
24 Dwayne Bowe KC 23 1 0 0 0 70 995 5 130 12
25 Jerricho CotcherNYJ 25 4 5 38 0 82 1130 2 129 12
26 Bernard Berrian CHI 27 4 1 3 0 70 948 5 125 8
27 Nate Burleson SEA 26 5 2 4 0 50 694 9 124 7
28 Reggie Williams JAX 24 4 1 8 0 38 629 10 124 7
29 Chris Chambers SD/MIA 29 7 3 12 0 66 970 4 122 5

2006
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Marvin Harrison IND 34 11 0 0 0 95 1366 12 209 92
2 Terrell Owens DAL 33 11 0 0 0 85 1180 13 196 80
3 Reggie Wayne IND 28 6 0 0 0 86 1310 9 185 69
4 Chad Johnson CIN 28 6 6 24 0 87 1369 7 181 65
5 Donald Driver GB 31 8 7 16 0 92 1295 8 179 63
6 Torry Holt STL 30 8 0 0 0 93 1188 10 179 63
7 Lee Evans BUF 25 3 0 0 0 82 1292 8 177 61
8 Steve Smith CAR 27 6 8 61 1 83 1166 8 177 60
9 Javon Walker DEN 28 5 9 123 1 69 1084 8 175 58
10 Roy Williams DET 25 3 2 2 0 82 1310 7 173 57 10wr above 50vbd

11 T.J. HoushmandzaCIN 29 6 3 6 0 90 1081 9 163 46
12 Plaxico Burress NYG 29 7 0 0 0 63 988 10 159 43
13 Darrell Jackson SEA 28 7 0 0 0 63 956 10 156 39
14 Marques Colston NO 23 1 0 0 0 70 1038 8 152 36
15 Joey Galloway TB 35 12 2 9 0 62 1057 7 149 32
16 Laveranues ColesNYJ 29 7 2 14 0 91 1098 6 147 31
17 Anquan Boldin ARI 26 4 5 28 0 83 1203 4 147 31
18 Andre Johnson HOU 25 4 3 14 0 103 1147 5 146 30
19 Mike Furrey DET 29 4 0 0 0 98 1086 6 145 28
20 Terry Glenn DAL 32 11 3 11 0 70 1047 6 142 26 10wr 25-49vbd

21 Reggie Brown PHI 25 2 3 24 1 46 816 8 138 22
22 Hines Ward PIT 30 9 2 30 0 74 975 6 137 20
23 Jerricho CotcherNYJ 24 3 5 25 0 82 961 6 135 18
24 Larry FitzgeraldARI 23 3 0 0 0 69 946 6 131 14
25 Isaac Bruce STL 34 13 0 0 0 74 1098 3 128 12
26 Braylon Edwards CLE 23 2 3 7 0 61 884 6 125 9
27 Santana Moss WAS 27 6 7 82 0 55 790 6 123 7
28 Mark Clayton BAL 24 2 7 -30 0 67 939 5 121 5
29 Eddie Kennison KC 33 11 4 16 0 53 860 5 118 1

2005
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Steve Smith CAR 26 5 4 25 1 103 1563 12 237 120
2 Larry FitzgeraldARI 22 2 8 41 0 103 1409 10 205 88
3 Santana Moss WAS 26 5 3 -3 0 84 1483 9 202 85
4 Chad Johnson CIN 27 5 5 33 0 97 1432 9 201 84
5 Joey Galloway TB 34 11 2 4 0 83 1287 10 189 72
6 Torry Holt STL 29 7 1 2 0 102 1331 9 187 71
7 Chris Chambers MIA 27 5 12 92 0 82 1118 11 187 70
8 Anquan Boldin ARI 25 3 12 45 0 102 1402 7 187 70
9 Marvin Harrison IND 33 10 0 0 0 82 1146 12 187 70 9wr above 50vbd

10 Hines Ward PIT 29 8 3 10 0 69 975 11 165 48
11 Plaxico Burress NYG 28 6 0 0 0 76 1214 7 163 47
12 Terry Glenn DAL 31 10 2 -4 1 62 1136 7 161 44
13 Donald Driver GB 30 7 2 13 0 86 1221 5 153 37
14 T.J. HoushmandzaCIN 28 5 8 62 1 78 956 7 150 33
15 Randy Moss OAK 28 8 0 0 0 60 1005 8 149 32
16 Rod Smith DEN 35 11 1 7 0 85 1105 6 147 30
17 Keenan McCardellSD 35 14 3 2 0 70 917 9 146 29
18 Eddie Kennison KC 32 10 7 43 0 68 1102 5 145 28 9wr 25-49vbd

19 Jimmy Smith JAX 36 14 0 0 0 70 1023 6 138 22
20 Donte StallworthNO 25 4 2 2 0 70 945 7 137 20
21 Reggie Wayne IND 27 5 0 0 0 83 1055 5 136 19
22 Deion Branch NE 26 4 0 0 0 78 998 5 130 13
23 Joe Jurevicius SEA 31 8 0 0 0 55 694 10 129 13
24 Derrick Mason BAL 31 9 0 0 0 86 1073 3 125 9
25 Antonio Bryant CLE 24 4 1 3 0 69 1009 4 125 9
26 Jerry Porter OAK 27 6 1 -8 0 76 942 5 123 7
27 Kevin Curtis STL 27 3 1 5 1 60 801 6 123 6
28 Keyshawn JohnsonDAL 33 10 1 3 0 71 839 6 120 4
29 Lee Evans BUF 24 2 4 38 0 48 743 7 120 3

2004
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Muhsin Muhammad CAR 31 9 3 15 0 93 1405 16 238 111
2 Javon Walker GB 26 3 0 0 0 89 1382 12 210 83
3 Joe Horn NO 32 9 0 0 0 94 1399 11 206 79
4 Terrell Owens PHI 31 9 3 -5 0 77 1200 14 204 76
5 Marvin Harrison IND 32 9 0 0 0 86 1113 15 201 74
6 Drew Bennett TEN 26 4 1 12 0 80 1247 11 198 71
7 Torry Holt STL 28 6 0 0 0 94 1372 10 197 70
8 Reggie Wayne IND 26 4 1 -4 0 77 1210 12 193 65
9 Chad Johnson CIN 26 4 4 39 0 95 1274 9 185 58 9wr above 50vbd

10 Donald Driver GB 29 6 3 4 0 84 1208 9 175 48
11 Brandon Stokley IND 28 6 0 0 0 68 1077 10 168 40
12 Isaac Bruce STL 32 11 0 0 0 89 1292 6 165 38
13 Michael Clayton TB 22 1 5 30 0 80 1193 7 164 37
14 Darrell Jackson SEA 26 5 0 0 0 87 1199 7 162 35
15 Rod Smith DEN 34 10 5 33 0 79 1144 7 160 32
16 Nate Burleson MIN 23 2 6 49 0 68 1006 9 160 32
17 Derrick Mason TEN 30 8 1 -3 0 96 1168 7 159 31
18 Eddie Kennison KC 31 9 2 15 0 62 1086 8 158 31
19 Randy Moss MIN 27 7 0 0 0 49 767 13 155 27
20 Jerry Porter OAK 26 5 1 -4 0 64 998 9 153 26
21 Jimmy Smith JAX 35 13 0 0 0 74 1172 6 153 26 12wr 25-49vbd

22 Andre Johnson HOU 23 2 4 12 0 79 1142 6 151 24
23 Ashley Lelie DEN 24 3 3 5 0 54 1084 7 151 24
24 Lee Evans BUF 23 1 5 85 0 48 843 9 147 19
25 Chris Chambers MIA 26 4 9 76 0 69 898 7 139 12
26 Eric Moulds BUF 31 9 5 19 0 88 1043 5 136 9
27 Keyshawn JohnsonDAL 32 9 2 13 0 70 981 6 133 6
28 Hines Ward PIT 28 7 7 25 1 80 1004 4 133 6
29 Roy Williams DET 23 1 1 1 0 54 817 8 130 2

2003
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Randy Moss MIN 26 6 6 18 0 111 1632 17 267 163
2 Torry Holt STL 27 5 1 5 0 117 1696 12 242 138
3 Chad Johnson CIN 25 3 0 0 0 90 1355 10 196 91
4 Anquan Boldin ARI 23 1 5 40 0 101 1377 8 188 83
5 Marvin Harrison IND 31 8 1 3 0 94 1272 10 188 83
6 Hines Ward PIT 27 6 11 61 0 95 1163 10 182 78
7 Derrick Mason TEN 29 7 3 11 0 95 1303 8 179 75
8 Santana Moss NYJ 24 3 10 67 0 74 1105 10 177 73
9 Darrell Jackson SEA 25 4 0 0 0 68 1137 9 168 63
10 Keenan McCardellTB 33 12 0 0 0 84 1174 8 165 61
11 Chris Chambers MIA 25 3 4 30 0 64 963 11 165 61
12 Terrell Owens SF 30 8 3 -2 0 80 1102 9 164 60
13 Laveranues ColesWAS 26 4 10 39 0 82 1204 6 160 56
14 Joe Horn NO 31 8 2 15 0 78 973 10 160 55
15 Steve Smith CAR 24 3 11 42 0 88 1110 7 157 53 15wr above 50vbd

16 Peter Warrick CIN 26 4 17 143 0 79 819 7 138 34
17 Amani Toomer NYG 29 8 1 5 0 63 1057 5 136 32
18 Isaac Bruce STL 31 10 2 17 0 69 981 5 133 29
19 David Boston SD 25 5 3 18 0 70 880 7 132 27 4wr 25-49vbd

20 Reggie Wayne IND 25 3 0 0 0 68 838 7 126 21
21 Javon Walker GB 25 2 2 1 0 41 716 9 126 21
22 Justin McCareinsTEN 25 3 1 13 0 47 813 7 125 20
23 Andre Johnson HOU 22 1 5 -10 0 66 976 4 121 16
24 Eddie Kennison KC 30 8 2 9 0 56 853 5 116 12
25 Rod Smith DEN 33 9 10 98 0 74 845 3 116 11
26 Koren Robinson SEA 23 3 4 15 0 65 896 4 115 11
27 Terry Glenn DAL 29 8 3 55 0 52 754 5 111 6
28 Plaxico Burress PIT 26 4 1 -7 0 60 860 4 109 5
29 Johnnie Morton KC 32 10 8 94 0 50 740 4 107 3

2002
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Marvin Harrison IND 30 7 2 10 0 143 1722 11 239 119
2 Terrell Owens SF 29 7 7 79 1 100 1300 13 222 102
3 Hines Ward PIT 26 5 12 142 0 112 1329 12 219 99
4 Eric Moulds BUF 29 7 1 7 0 100 1287 10 189 69
5 Randy Moss MIN 25 5 6 51 0 106 1347 7 187 67
6 Amani Toomer NYG 28 7 1 2 0 82 1343 8 183 62
7 Peerless Price BUF 26 4 3 -13 0 94 1252 9 178 58
8 Plaxico Burress PIT 25 3 0 0 0 78 1325 7 175 54
9 Joe Horn NO 30 7 0 0 0 88 1312 7 173 53 9wr above 50vbd

10 Donald Driver GB 27 4 8 70 0 70 1064 9 167 47
11 Jerry Rice OAK 40 18 3 20 0 92 1211 7 165 45
12 Marty Booker CHI 26 4 0 0 0 97 1183 6 162 41
13 Laveranues ColesNYJ 25 3 6 39 0 89 1264 5 160 40
14 Koren Robinson SEA 22 2 8 56 0 78 1240 5 160 39
15 Torry Holt STL 26 4 2 18 0 91 1302 4 156 36
16 Isaac Bruce STL 30 9 3 18 0 79 1075 7 151 31
17 Rod Gardner WAS 25 2 1 1 0 71 1006 8 149 28
18 Chad Johnson CIN 24 2 0 0 0 69 1166 5 147 26
19 Jimmy Smith JAX 33 11 1 2 0 80 1027 7 145 25 10wr 25-49vbd

20 Quincy Morgan CLE 25 2 3 7 0 56 964 7 139 19
21 Keyshawn JohnsonTB 30 7 0 0 0 76 1088 5 139 19
22 Rod Smith DEN 32 8 6 9 0 89 1027 5 134 13
23 Travis Taylor BAL 23 3 11 105 0 61 869 6 133 13
24 Curtis Conway SD 31 10 7 53 2 57 852 5 133 12
25 Derrick Mason TEN 28 6 0 0 0 79 1012 5 131 11
26 Joey Galloway DAL 31 8 4 31 0 61 908 6 130 10
27 James Thrash PHI 27 6 18 126 2 52 635 6 124 4
28 Jerry Porter OAK 24 3 4 6 0 51 688 9 123 3
29 Wayne Chrebet NYJ 29 8 0 0 0 51 691 9 123 3

 

[squistion]

I'm more interested in why Arizona took Stepfan over Stacy.

Because he's better?

It's only one team, but the Cowboys also had Taylor ahead of Stacy on their leaked draft board. Taylor is given a 4th round grade whereas Stacy is unlisted.

That's my point. It seems other than fantasy players no one is high on Stacy's talent.

Perhaps, but doing a quick Google search I was able to find are a few sports writers/football writers that seem to really like Stacy.

Why Zac Stacy Will Be This Year's Alfred Morrishttp://bleacherreport.com/articles/1662786-why-zac-stacy-will-be-this-years-alfred-morris

St. Louis Rams: 5 Reasons Why Zac Stacy Will Shine as a Rookie

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/st_louis_rams_5_reasons_why_zac_stacy_will_shine_as_a_rookie/13724933

Rookie RB Zac Stacy could make early impact with Rams

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/nfl/st-louis-rams/story/Rookie-RB-Zac-Stacy-could-make-early-imp?blockID=910241

 

[cstu]

I'm more interested in why Arizona took Stepfan over Stacy.

Because he's better?

It's only one team, but the Cowboys also had Taylor ahead of Stacy on their leaked draft board. Taylor is given a 4th round grade whereas Stacy is unlisted.

That's my point. It seems other than fantasy players no one is high on Stacy's talent.

Perhaps, but doing a quick Google search I was able to find are a few sports writers/football writers that seem to really like Stacy.

Why Zac Stacy Will Be This Year's Alfred Morrishttp://bleacherreport.com/articles/1662786-why-zac-stacy-will-be-this-years-alfred-morris

St. Louis Rams: 5 Reasons Why Zac Stacy Will Shine as a Rookie

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/st_louis_rams_5_reasons_why_zac_stacy_will_shine_as_a_rookie/13724933

Rookie RB Zac Stacy could make early impact with Rams

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/nfl/st-louis-rams/story/Rookie-RB-Zac-Stacy-could-make-early-imp?blockID=910241

They get paid to write for a living and need something to write about.

 

[squistion]

I'm more interested in why Arizona took Stepfan over Stacy.

Because he's better?

It's only one team, but the Cowboys also had Taylor ahead of Stacy on their leaked draft board. Taylor is given a 4th round grade whereas Stacy is unlisted.

That's my point. It seems other than fantasy players no one is high on Stacy's talent.

Perhaps, but doing a quick Google search I was able to find are a few sports writers/football writers that seem to really like Stacy.

Why Zac Stacy Will Be This Year's Alfred Morrishttp://bleacherreport.com/articles/1662786-why-zac-stacy-will-be-this-years-alfred-morris

St. Louis Rams: 5 Reasons Why Zac Stacy Will Shine as a Rookie

http://network.yardbarker.com/nfl/article_external/st_louis_rams_5_reasons_why_zac_stacy_will_shine_as_a_rookie/13724933

Rookie RB Zac Stacy could make early impact with Rams

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/nfl/st-louis-rams/story/Rookie-RB-Zac-Stacy-could-make-early-imp?blockID=910241

They get paid to write for a living and need something to write about.

 

[cstu]

There's nothing new in those articles and it's all speculation designed to get clicks.

 

[squistion]

There's nothing new in those articles and it's all speculation designed to get clicks.

You stated categorically that no one was high on Stacy except fantasy players. With just a cursory Google search I proved you wrong and found three football sportswriters who are hyping Stacy. Then you say that doesn't mean anything anyway because they need something to write about and are just trying to boost circulation.

It is obvious that no matter what I would come up with, you wouldn't accept it as valid. I am sure that I could find more articles but since your mind is closed on the subject it is pointless. And saying there is nothing new in those articles is irrelevant, the purpose of the articles was to refute your point about fantasy players being the only ones on this planet who are on the Stacy hype train.

 

[massraider]

There's nothing new in those articles and it's all speculation designed to get clicks.

You stated categorically that no one was high on Stacy except fantasy players. With just a cursory Google search I proved you wrong and found three football sportswriters who are hyping Stacy.

I'd feel a bit better if I saw pre-draft hype.

 

[bmsarvis]

For those listing guys like Morris from their rookie drafts in August, the question was meant for drafts during the offseason before training camps/preseason were already in full swing. I didn't see Morris go very high in any rookie drafts in April-June. The Torian and Dwyer calls are good as i remember them both going very highly even in early rookie drafts. Then both ended up sucking and kind of back the point how over-rated Stacy is now, but they indeed were going as high or higher then Stacy.

Morris was the only rb not drafted in my draft. 5rd 10team idp. Draft is two weeks after nfl draft. Morris was infact listed/expected to be a full back still at that time.

 

[Shawn]

Zach Stacy won't be big for redraft this year IMHO, but dynastywise worth a stash, and you could win big if he does become "the guy" for STL. it's a swing for the fences kind of play. PS I wouldn't waste a TE pick if I felt I could land Seferian-Jenkins next year<-- Dynasty thinking

 

[Adam Harstad]

Zach Stacy won't be big for redraft this year IMHO, but dynastywise worth a stash, and you could win big if he does become "the guy" for STL. it's a swing for the fences kind of play. PS I wouldn't waste a TE pick if I felt I could land Seferian-Jenkins next year<-- Dynasty thinking

Grabbing a TE this year doesn't prevent you from grabbing ASJ next year, assuming you have a high enough pick and he makes it to you and he's still as good of a prospect.

I'm a believer in taking the best players. If you already have a great TE, and the best player available is another TE, take him anyway. A trade will open up at some point down the road, and it's a lot easier to trade good players than bad players. The rookie draft is a vehicle for acquiring good players, not addressing needs.

Edit: In one league, I have Gronk, Olsen, Pitta, and the 8th pick. I'm anticipating that Eifert will fall, and I will draft him in a heartbeat. If he's as good as I think he is, he'll help my team a lot more than anyone else available with that pick, even if I never wind up starting him. Another guy in my league drafted Hernandez and Gronk in 2010 despite already having Antonio Gates. Needless to say, that wound up working out a lot better than if he'd grabbed Golden Tate or Mardy Gilyard to try to shore up a need, instead.

 

[Sabertooth]

I am looking at the copy of Pro Football Weekly. Obviously predraft and they break the backs down by skill set. Under the Utility skillset the rankings go:

Gio Bernard (Porjected 2-3 round)

Johnathan Franklin (3-4)

Mike Gillislee (3-4)

Cierre Wood (4-5)

Rex Burkhead (5-6)

Zac Stacy didn't get mention in any of the categories but shows up in the "Best of the Rest" section between D.J. Monroe and Stefphon Jefferson. It puts his classification as power. Thus obviously he is considered behind the other Power backs (Stepfan Taylor, Christine Michael, Spencer Ware, Marcus Lattimore, and Jawan Jamison).

Not exactly hype when you throw him in with the "also rans."

 

[Biabreakable]

That is just politics. The Commodores are not a big enough team to make that kind of press.

I guess my numbers got mangled since yesterday. They looked fine then.

 

[Faust]

Finding the Fits: Zac Stacy to take over for Steven Jackson in STL?

By Rob Rang | The Sports Xchange/CBSSports.com

Excerpt:

This article is one of a series called Finding the Fits in which NFLDraftScout.com will review some of the more intriguing picks made during the 2013 NFL Draft. The goal of the series is to identify one relatively unheralded player per team who appears to be a good schematic fit and, therefore, more likely to be a surprise contributor early in his pro career.

St. Louis' best fit: RB Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt, Fifth Round, No. 160 overall

Throughout much of his nine seasons in St. Louis, no player better exemplified toughness and dependability than Rams' running back Steven Jackson.

The challenge now for general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher will be to replace him, as Jackson voided the final year of his contract with the Rams and signed with the Atlanta Falcons in the off-season.

Snead and Fisher know all too well that the Rams aren't just replacing a back who eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the eighth consecutive season. Jackson was a reliable receiver out of the backfield, a terrific pass blocker and a leader.

No single man is going to replace Jackson in 2013. Surprisingly enough, the Rams appear fine with that, hoping to feature second-year speedsters Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead on the outside with rookie Zac Stacy, the club's final pick of the 2013 draft, as an interior runner.

At 5-09, 216-pounds, Stacy has a short, squatty build with natural leverage advantage. He runs decisively, with good forward lean and determination. He was clocked at a respectable 4.53-seconds in the 40-yard dash but is quicker than he is fast, demonstrating the ability to make defenders miss to complement his deceptive power. He possesses soft hands out of the backfield and is more polished as a pass blocker than most rookies.

Perhaps best of all, he's proven his toughness and talent against elite talent, rushing for back-to-back 1,000 seasons against SEC competition. The Rams thought enough of Stacy to trade their final two picks of the 2013 draft to move up and select him in the fifth.

Stacy does not possess the straight-line speed that pushed the Rams to invest a second round pick in Pead a year ago. He does not possess Richardson's explosiveness either - and passing the second-to-last pick of the 2012 draft on the depth chart may prove the taller order.

Richardson emerged as Jackson's primary backup as a rookie, rushing for 475 yards and catching 24 passes for another 163 yards. Pead, on the other hand, had just 13 touches in his first NFL season. The club expects much more from him in his second season.

Richardson and Pead each offer more big play potential than Stacy but neither has shown his grit as an interior runner, which could put the former Commodore on center stage near the goal-line.

"You need multiple backs in this league,'' offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer told the media following the team's June 12 OTA session. "We're going to try to play to their strengths. With (Jackson) last year, it was a little different. It was harder to do the committee because every time you took him out, you knew you were missing his leadership and his toughness. This year I think we've got nice pieces to try and blend in and differently attack people.''

 

[Adam Harstad]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

 

[Biabreakable]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

Because some spurts wasted picks on Pead and Richardson we should rethink things?

Thats funny.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I have been one of the biggest Stacy supporters around here, but I sold today, and I think I got good value. He'd really have to be the next Morris for me to regret it, I think. I still like him, but for me his value has officially outpaced my expectations. It's obvious the Rams want a RBBC and he'd have to be really impressive on the field to steal even 60% of the RB touches coming out of STL. They're even talking about running some plays for Cook out of the backfield now. I'm sure it's more of an H-Back role where he runs a route, because he can't block, but still. It's just a little more mud in the water.

 

[Biabreakable]

Getting good value for an unproven player is never a bad idea.

The Rams want to run a 2RB system much like they did last season and that is ultimately how I see things settling in. That may not be until 2014 because there is still a very open competition right now that could extend deep into the regular season. Not worried a bit about the constraint plays at all, those things will help whoever the feature RB is.

Adam saying people should rethink their strategy because of a June redraft seems way off to me. Not even the same format. I do not think anyone taking Stacy should be expecting much more than 200ra as a rookie. I do not think you should be able to get a player with higher expectations than that in the 2nd round of a rookie draft in dynasty.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Getting good value for an unproven player is never a bad idea.

The Rams want to run a 2RB system much like they did last season and that is ultimately how I see things settling in. That may not be until 2014 because there is still a very open competition right now that could extend deep into the regular season. Not worried a bit about the constraint plays at all, those things will help whoever the feature RB is.

Adam saying people should rethink their strategy because of a June redraft seems way off to me. Not even the same format. I do not think anyone taking Stacy should be expecting much more than 200ra as a rookie. I do not think you should be able to get a player with higher expectations than that in the 2nd round of a rookie draft in dynasty.

Here is a complete list of RBs in the last 20 years who have produced 50+ VBD with just 200 rushing attempts:

Maurice Jones-Drew

Charlie Garner

Jones-Drew averaged 15 touchdowns a year in his two 50+ VBD seasons. Garner added 91 receptions and over 900 receiving yards in his 50+ VBD season.

Here is a list of notable RBs who failed to make the list:

In 2009, Jamaal Charles had 190 carries at a whopping 5.9 yards per carry, finished with 1400 yards from scrimmage, and only produced 40 VBD.

In 2004, Priest Holmes got injured after 8 games and just 196 carries. During those 8 games, he put up a whopping 15 touchdowns and 1,000 yards from scrimmage, and produced just 41 VBD.

In 2011, Darren Sproles was a monster in the receiving game, putting up 1300 yards from scrimmage and 9 TDs with fewer than 100 carries. He produced 37 VBD.

Moe Williams, Reggie Bush, Larry Centers, and Marion Barber also join the list of players who had massive fantasy seasons on the backs of huge touchdown or receiving totals. All of them failed to reach 50 VBD.

Your statement that people shouldn't be expecting more than 200 carries from Stacy seems to contradict your earlier statements in this thread, which implied that you viewed Stacy as a high rookie draft pick because you thought he had a good chance at getting 50 VBD this season. In fact, the prospect of Zac Stacy getting about 200 carries in a mediocre offense with little history of scoring rushing TDs and almost no involvement in the passing game seem pretty damning in terms of his chances of achieving fantasy relevance this season.

 

[Biabreakable]

David Wilson only had 70 some carries as a rookie. He still seems pretty valuable.

I do think Stacy could get more carries than 200 or so but I am not expecting that of any rookie really. Unless they are Richardson or something and assured the starting job without question from the get go. The thing with Stacy is I do think he will eventually win out and that is when those 50VBD seasons will come. But no I would not really expect that of any rookie. If I did that rookie would be a top 5 type of pick.

ETA- Bell is the only rookie RB this season that I expect to get 250+ carries as a rookie. Most of them including Stacy could get more than that but I am not expecting it. Stacy is actually a very good value pick imo because he has the same potential as the other rookie RB being taken in the top 8 picks, but you can get him early 2nd round instead.

To be clear I do think Lacy, Ball, Bernard, and Stacy could get over 250 carries but that would be closer to my upside expectation for any of them. Things happen during a rookie season that tend to hold the rookies back. Even moreso in recent history. Part of that is I think tied to pass protection as the league has been throwing the ball more, need a RB who can pick up the blitz when you are doing that. This is something I think is in Stacy's favor. He is very good in pass protection. He benched 27 at the combine. He is very strong and will likely be a better pass blocker than Pead or Richardson. That means he could get the playing time that has held other rookies back in recent past. I do expect Richardson to get the same role he earned last season. Jackson only had 263ra with Richardson getting another 100 or so. Pead will likely get some carries slicing into that 260 pie as I am not expecting the Rams to run much more with all of the passing weapons they added in the draft. That is possible I suppose but not how I was projecting for the Rams thus far. I am expecting a similar number of rushing attempts with slightly more passing attempts. An increase slightly in overall plays due to improved offensive line and defense.

Lacy likely wont make it to 250ra because of being spelled by Franklin and use of veteran RB. The Packers were close to the league average in rushing attempts last season at 430. Lacy certainly could have over 250 and I think he is their best pass blocker also. But if Franklin gets more than 100 too, with likely one of their other RB getting 50-100 then Lacy will not make it to 250.

Bernard needs to unseat the law firm. I could certainly see a 50/50 split here for his rookie season and therefore not get more than 250 carries.

Ball may not get 250 carries because of Moreno playing a lot in pass protection. Furthermore if Hillman is used in a COP role.

So my floor with these guys is certainly lower than 250 carries in 2013. RB can get this workload as rookies however so that would be the upside expectation if they do earn the bulk of the carries right away. If I were to rank them based on their chances to earn that workload as a rookie I would have them Bell, Bernard, Lacy, Stacy, Ball.

While these teams may use RBBC it will also be rb by competition.

I also want to say that I may have talked about this more than the other rookie RB situations because I see this as a value pick situation. I have bias for the underdog as well which Stacy's whole story fits perfectly. People would likely wish I would shut up about this guy. I should. I just talked about him more than the other rookies because I consider it a value play. Talking about it as such makes it less of one.

This was the 1st draft where no RB was taken in the 1st round since the 60s. Just because Bell,Bernard,Lacy,Ball are 1st round dynasty rookie picks does not make them the same quality as any other draft that does have 1st round NFL RB picks. Remember they were 2nd round picks in the draft. None of them are sure things. I like them all better than Pead. 2nd round picks on RB are not the same as 1st round picks even as the position as a whole seems to be losing value (for draft investment/contracts). It is still a drop. Stacy being a 5th rounder is much less of a drop from a 2nd round prospect than a actual 1st round picked RB.

 

[squistion]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

Oh, yes, I'll definitely rethink my dynasty strategy based on a June mock for a redraft league done by some staffers who were not that high on Stacy to begin with.

 

[jurb26]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

Oh, yes, I'll definitely rethink my dynasty strategy based on a June mock for a redraft league done by some staffers who were not that high on Stacy to begin with.

Lol, yeah that's funny. I'll stick to my own judgements thank you very much.

 

[lbouchard]

Had my rookie draft today. Building more for 2014 and am relatively set at RB. Took a swing on Lattimore rather than taking Stacy. As an added bonus, I can stash Lattimore on IR so he doesn't take up a spot on my relatively crowded roster.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I don't think it's an over-valuation of the player so much as its more or less the result of a weak RB class paired up with dynasty owners who need to build up that part of their roster. After Gio, Ball and Bell (who all seem to be going in the top 5 picks on average) there isn't a lot left to choose from. Lacy/Franklin are usually the RBs who follow after and they're likely to cut into each others production. After that Stacy is one of the next on the rookie RB list who has a shot at producing given the situation in STL. If you need a RB, that's pretty much what you're looking at. I don't think it justifies taking him in the late first compared to the prospects at other positions (Id draft a more tradable player I don't really need first), but drafting for need is pretty much leading a lot of people into taking a 5th rounder that high.

I think it's a sign of how inbred our resources are (both for news and strategy) coupled with everyone wanting to look clever for landing a late round gem.

Everyone's looking for the next Morris, and then several respected sources say that Stacy looks like promising and is underrated and then BOOM! But everyone knows that everyone else probably knows as well, so itchy trigger fingers develop. And you start convincing yourself that he won't be there late and that you need to trust your instincts and grab him a round early. Because you might as well go big or go home, right?

And the proliferation of Waldman's upside down strategy is partly to blame as well. As soon as several people start doing it in your league, you can't get those late round guys as late, so the strategy falls apart. Inevitably, the price creeps up. As long as the player hits, it's still OK. But the nature of the beast is that several won't. So when they don't, and you let yourself bypass other positions to reach a round or two early, you get crippled by the misses.

 

[Adam Harstad]

David Wilson only had 70 some carries as a rookie. He still seems pretty valuable.

I do think Stacy could get more carries than 200 or so but I am not expecting that of any rookie really. Unless they are Richardson or something and assured the starting job without question from the get go. The thing with Stacy is I do think he will eventually win out and that is when those 50VBD seasons will come. But no I would not really expect that of any rookie. If I did that rookie would be a top 5 type of pick.

David Wilson is pretty valuable today because he is a young, super-talented, highly-drafted player, so his rookie production is irrelevant. As I understand it, many of those advocating Stacy (including you, earlier in this thread), were doing so because you said he would provide strong enough IMMEDIATE returns to vault over the WRs who are young, super-talented, highly-drafted players. If David Wilson is an analogy for anyone here, it's not Zac Stacy... it's those high 2nd round WRs that you're passing on to draft Zac Stacy.Zac Stacy has no margin for error. He's a 5th round pick fighting for his NFL life. There's no room for him to take a mulligan season like Wilson had; if he does, he's irrelevant at this point next year. He needs to be IMMEDIATELY productive to justify the pick people are spending on him.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

Oh, yes, I'll definitely rethink my dynasty strategy based on a June mock for a redraft league done by some staffers who were not that high on Stacy to begin with.

Oh, there were plenty of staffers who were high on Stacy. Seven of the participants in the mock have rookie rankings up on the site. I was by far the lowest on Stacy (26th in my rankings). The other six staffers had Stacy, on average, as their 14th best rookie. Wood and Haseley are the highest on Stacy of any of the staffers (both have him 10th in their rankings), and both of them were in that mock. Even the guys that like him for dynasty weren't very bullish on his potential for redraft. I see a lot of people in this thread saying they like Stacy because they think he'll provide more immediate returns than the rookie WRs. I'm just pointing out that, right now, it doesn't seem like the fantasy community is very high on how much immediate returns he'll really provide. If you'd rather not base it on a single mock, MFL ADP currently has Richardson going as RB36, Pead going as RB43, and Stacy going as RB46. Like I said, the fantasy community seems to think anyone who is drafting Stacy because of his immediate returns is making a big mistake.

 

[LususV]

Looks like the Stacy hype has been tapering off a bit. We just held a staff mock a couple of days ago (redraft, PPR, 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex). Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead went in the 9th, as the 38th and 39th RBs off the board. Stacy went in the 12th, as the 53rd back taken. If you're spending a high rookie pick on him under the assumption that he'll pay immediate dividends and see a large value boost, I think you might want to rethink that strategy.

Oh, yes, I'll definitely rethink my dynasty strategy based on a June mock for a redraft league done by some staffers who were not that high on Stacy to begin with.

Oh, there were plenty of staffers who were high on Stacy. Seven of the participants in the mock have rookie rankings up on the site. I was by far the lowest on Stacy (26th in my rankings). The other six staffers had Stacy, on average, as their 14th best rookie. Wood and Haseley are the highest on Stacy of any of the staffers (both have him 10th in their rankings), and both of them were in that mock. Even the guys that like him for dynasty weren't very bullish on his potential for redraft.I see a lot of people in this thread saying they like Stacy because they think he'll provide more immediate returns than the rookie WRs. I'm just pointing out that, right now, it doesn't seem like the fantasy community is very high on how much immediate returns he'll really provide. If you'd rather not base it on a single mock, MFL ADP currently has Richardson going as RB36, Pead going as RB43, and Stacy going as RB46. Like I said, the fantasy community seems to think anyone who is drafting Stacy because of his immediate returns is making a big mistake.

I think if Stacy hits, it won't be during preseason. Fisher likes Pead, and is going to give Pead a long leash. But if Stacy has a good week 1 and Pead has a bad few weeks, Stacy can get his chance.

I don't think Stacy's upside will ever reach RB1, but he has solid RB2 potential in (what I view as) an improved offense. I just don't see Pead being even that good, to be honest.

I think valuing Richardson as anything but a COP guy is a huge mistake.

This is absolutely not a Morris situation. Jeff Fisher is not Shanahan.

 

[Biabreakable]

David Wilson only had 70 some carries as a rookie. He still seems pretty valuable.

I do think Stacy could get more carries than 200 or so but I am not expecting that of any rookie really. Unless they are Richardson or something and assured the starting job without question from the get go. The thing with Stacy is I do think he will eventually win out and that is when those 50VBD seasons will come. But no I would not really expect that of any rookie. If I did that rookie would be a top 5 type of pick.

David Wilson is pretty valuable today because he is a young, super-talented, highly-drafted player, so his rookie production is irrelevant. As I understand it, many of those advocating Stacy (including you, earlier in this thread), were doing so because you said he would provide strong enough IMMEDIATE returns to vault over the WRs who are young, super-talented, highly-drafted players. If David Wilson is an analogy for anyone here, it's not Zac Stacy... it's those high 2nd round WRs that you're passing on to draft Zac Stacy.Zac Stacy has no margin for error. He's a 5th round pick fighting for his NFL life. There's no room for him to take a mulligan season like Wilson had; if he does, he's irrelevant at this point next year. He needs to be IMMEDIATELY productive to justify the pick people are spending on him.

Meh. Enjoy your strawman. Stacy is closer to instant impact that those WR or TE you were advocating over him which is where this conversation started. I laid out a lot of information showing that RB are more likely to be useful players than the WR are, although both are close. This coupled with the longer wait time for them to be productive compared to a RB is the important info here.

 

[jurb26]

Zac Stacy has no margin for error. He's a 5th round pick fighting for his NFL life. There's no room for him to take a mulligan season like Wilson had; if he does, he's irrelevant at this point next year. He needs to be IMMEDIATELY productive to justify the pick people are spending on him.

I don't get this part of your post. A guy either has the talent to produce in the NFL or he doesn't. Just because he was drafted in the 5th round doesn't change that once he shows who he is at an NFL camp. There are plenty of reasons he could not have an immediate impact and still hold value down the road. He's a rookie! For all we know, St. L could feel he's the best RB on the roster (but its close) and he nees more time to pick up the NFL play book, speed and pass protection. It's not like a late round pick has never emerged latter than his 1st season. There a tons of examples of it. The most notable being Priest Holmes, who didn't even do it on the same team that drafted him. Tis seems like a silly exaggeration to make a point.

 

[Sabertooth]

This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.

:rofl:

I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.

Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.

I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.

So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?

I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.

Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.

Stacy could be the lead back in a committee this season for sure. He could also be replaced as early as next season even if he does well. Imagine if the Rams used a second rounder on a RB next season. People's heads would fall off.

 

[Sabertooth]

David Wilson only had 70 some carries as a rookie. He still seems pretty valuable.

I do think Stacy could get more carries than 200 or so but I am not expecting that of any rookie really. Unless they are Richardson or something and assured the starting job without question from the get go. The thing with Stacy is I do think he will eventually win out and that is when those 50VBD seasons will come. But no I would not really expect that of any rookie. If I did that rookie would be a top 5 type of pick.

David Wilson is pretty valuable today because he is a young, super-talented, highly-drafted player, so his rookie production is irrelevant. As I understand it, many of those advocating Stacy (including you, earlier in this thread), were doing so because you said he would provide strong enough IMMEDIATE returns to vault over the WRs who are young, super-talented, highly-drafted players. If David Wilson is an analogy for anyone here, it's not Zac Stacy... it's those high 2nd round WRs that you're passing on to draft Zac Stacy.Zac Stacy has no margin for error. He's a 5th round pick fighting for his NFL life. There's no room for him to take a mulligan season like Wilson had; if he does, he's irrelevant at this point next year. He needs to be IMMEDIATELY productive to justify the pick people are spending on him.

Meh. Enjoy your strawman. Stacy is closer to instant impact that those WR or TE you were advocating over him which is where this conversation started. I laid out a lot of information showing that RB are more likely to be useful players than the WR are, although both are close. This coupled with the longer wait time for them to be productive compared to a RB is the important info here.

In redraft it is important. But in dynasty, I am not trotting out a guy like Zac Stacy unless I get decimated by injuries or to cover a bye. If you are pulling rookie draft picks in to be starters, that is going to be a losing proposition. I would much rather a guy like Leveon Bell, Eddie Lacy, or Gio Bernard for this year than Stacy. I don't tend to be mining for year one starters in the second round. I look longer term, which is why I'd prefer Christine Michael or Marcus Lattimore to Stacy. Stacy's chances of being an impact player in the NFL are not good.

 

[FF Ninja]

There's nothing new in those articles and it's all speculation designed to get clicks.

You stated categorically that no one was high on Stacy except fantasy players. With just a cursory Google search I proved you wrong and found three football sportswriters who are hyping Stacy. Then you say that doesn't mean anything anyway because they need something to write about and are just trying to boost circulation.

It is obvious that no matter what I would come up with, you wouldn't accept it as valid. I am sure that I could find more articles but since your mind is closed on the subject it is pointless. And saying there is nothing new in those articles is irrelevant, the purpose of the articles was to refute your point about fantasy players being the only ones on this planet who are on the Stacy hype train.

Maybe it's already been mentioned in this thread, but here's some pretty strong hype from the FBG roundtable:

Rams RBsIs Daryl Richardson going to assume the featured role left vacant by Steven Jackson's departure, or will Isaiah Pead or Zac Stacy end up the better fantasy picks?

Matt Waldman: I think Richardson has only a 5 percent chance of starting. He is an overachiever who did well relative to the underachieving Pead. The second-year back from Cincinnati may be serving a one-game suspension, but the Rams knew about this and I won't be crucifying Pead for saying he was miserable last year. He came to camp late due to rules about college terms, was behind with the playbook, and never felt a part of the team. He was honest and he's paying for it in the court of public opinion, which to me in this situation is worth about as much as used chewing gum stuck under a table. Pead has ability, but it's the maturity factor as a decision-maker between the tackles that he has to develop. So did Jamaal Charles and C.J. Spiller. I'll give Pead a 40 percent chance to earn the starting gig or a lead back role and if he does I think 700-900 yards and 4-6 touchdowns is a solid projection. He's a decent flex option this year if this happens. But lump me in with those leading the Zac Stacy brigade. The rookie fits the best as an every-down back. I think he has a 55 percent chance of winning this gig and if he does, 900-1100 yards with 5-7 touchdowns is fitting.

Andy Hicks: Nobody in this group has much experience. Right now I agree with Matt's take on this situation. The one-week suspension for Isaiah Pead could, however, be vital in allowing Richardson or Stacy to usurp any leeway he may make in training camp and the preseason. The shiny new car coming down the driveway always looks better than the one still in the garage.

Jason Wood: Zac Stacy will be the starter. I'm not sure if it'll happen in Week 1, in Week 8, or not until 2014, but he's the long-term play here. I'm not interested in the other guys and think St. Louis will use a patchwork committee this year with no fantasy value unless Stacy emerges.

Jeff Pasquino: I know that many Draftniks (staffers included) love Zac Stacy, but I know what my eyes told me last year, which is that Daryl Richardson is capable of being a true feature tailback if he gets the opportunity. Jeff Fisher wants to use the ground game to compliment Sam Bradford, so there might not be enough footballs to go around, but I have Richardson ahead of Stacy for now with Pead a threat for goal line vulturing (after his one-game suspension).

Mark Wimer: I'm with Jeff, as I think that Daryl Richardson proved his NFL-level skills last year for a pretty bad Rams team: a 4.8 yards-per-carry average while showing good receiving skills last season should definitely earn Richardson strong consideration for the lead role in 2013. How big his lead role will be depends on how Zac Stacy performs during the preseason and in September, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Richardson garnering 65% of the touches from the running back position this year down in St. Louis.

Sigmund Bloom: Stacy is the call here because Richardson isn't built to run inside, and Isaiah Pead is already facing a one-game suspension. Pead commented that he was "miserable" and "tired of football" during his bust of a rookie year, and that candor is enough to make me question his confidence until he proves it is intact on the field. He was not a player that I believed was worthy of a second-round pick when the Rams took him, and they only chose him because their OLB options went off the board right before their pick after they traded down. Stacy is a compact, hard-charging back with enough burst to be the best inside runner and most likely candidate to get the ball when head coach Jeff Fisher wants to establish the run. I think he's got fantasy RB2 potential if he wins the job, which I think is more likely than not.

Cecil Lammey: This is a three-headed race for the starting job, but I prefer rookie Zac Stacy to the others. Pead's one-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy could hold him back in this race. He's the best all-purpose back in this trio, but lacks the instinct of a pro runner at this point. Daryl Richardson is a speed back who stood out to me at the Players All-Star Classic in 2012. He cuts at speed and accelerates quickly but may not be built to be a workhorse back. Stacy is a grinder between the tackles who has a game built on gaining yards after contact. With the Rams offense spread out in their new passing game, a back like Stacy should be able to take advantage of thin defensive fronts. This is an RBBC situation with only RB3 expectations for whoever wins the job.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I am interested to see how this competition plays out in training camp. Stacy is most definitely on my radar and I'll be paying close attention. I play in a keeper league which doesn't draft until late August. Right now I would value Stacy as a RB5/6 on my roster and would draft him to stash him and see how the year plays out. I may not get the chance though, come late August. We don't have a separate rookie draft, so rookies inevitably go early and often in our drafts. If Stacy is the one that shines during Rams training camp and early preseason, then it will be noticed and I'll have even less chance of landing him. I believe this training camp battle is being watched by lots of folks, not just me.

HC Jeff Fisher's history reveals that he likes a heavy dose of rushing attempts and loves to pound the rock. His offenses rushing attempts have ranked better than average 13 times in 17 seasons. They've ranked top-ten in attempts 9 times, top-five in attempts 6 times with two #1 rankings. St. Louis' ground game in 2013 holds a lot of promise if one of these backs emerges to be a bell-cow type of back. Stacy just seems better suited to be that back than the other two, according to many observers.

I'm not sold on the hype just yet to start considering him a need on draft day at this point, but I am intrigued enough to keep a close eye on the situation.

I think it's tricky to try to predict value in dynasty and those that draft in early dynasty rookie drafts have a tough task. I would probably take Stacy somewhere in the second round. RB's are more valuable than other positions simply due to supply and demand, in my opinion. In dynasty I'm not looking for instant production but rather the opportunity to roster a possible RB1 in the near future.

 

[Biabreakable]

So I finally got around to doing the TE. I set the baseline at 20 for a start 1TE. Giving some consideration to possible flex TE options and that teams will roster more than 20 TE mining for one of those top 5 TE seasons. The average total points for TE 20 is about 75 for 2007-2012. Overall TE performance is much lower than this in years prior to 2007.

This is almost half as much as the average total points scored by RB 30. WR 30 scored around 120 on average. If I left this at only the top 12 that is about 100 total points on average which would be closer. But we are mining for potential starters here. I think baseline 20 better reflects the value of having one of those 100 point guys (at least that is a TE1) giving a modest point advantage over teams stuck starting TE2. This baseline makes the TE vbd numbers somewhat higher than they likely should be. In years before 2007 TE score less and the baseline for TE 12 is in the 60pt range not 100. That is how far the TE position has come in recent years, a trend that I think continues, that is the new normal.
TE-

2012
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Jimmy Graham NO 26 3 85 982 9 152 76
2 Rob Gronkowski NE 23 3 55 790 11 145 69
3 Tony Gonzalez ATL 36 16 93 930 8 141 65
4 Heath Miller PIT 30 8 71 816 8 130 54 4 above 50vbd

5 Jason Witten DAL 30 10 110 1039 3 122 46
6 Greg Olsen CAR 27 6 69 843 5 114 39
7 Dennis Pitta BAL 27 3 61 669 7 109 33
8 Owen Daniels HOU 30 7 62 716 6 108 32
9 Brandon Myers OAK 27 4 79 806 4 105 29
10 Jermaine GreshamCIN 24 3 64 737 5 104 28
11 Kyle Rudolph MIN 23 2 53 493 9 103 27 7 from 25-50vbd

12 Antonio Gates SD 32 10 49 538 7 96 20
13 Scott Chandler BUF 27 6 43 571 6 93 17
14 Martellus BennetNYG 25 5 55 626 5 93 17
15 Vernon Davis SF 28 7 41 548 5 85 9
16 Aaron Hernandez NE 23 3 51 483 5 79 3
17 Jermichael FinleGB 25 5 61 667 2 79 3
18 Marcedes Lewis JAX 28 7 52 540 4 78 2
19 Jared Cook TEN 25 4 44 523 4 76 0
20 Lance Kendricks STL 24 2 42 519 4 76 0

2011
1 Rob Gronkowski NE 22 2 90 1327 17 241 165
2 Jimmy Graham NO 25 2 99 1310 11 197 121
3 Aaron Hernandez NE 22 2 79 910 7 138 61
4 Tony Gonzalez ATL 35 15 80 875 7 130 53 4 above 50vbd

5 Jermichael FinleGB 24 4 55 767 8 125 49
6 Jason Witten DAL 29 9 79 942 5 124 48
7 Antonio Gates SD 31 9 64 778 7 120 44
8 Vernon Davis SF 27 6 67 792 6 115 39
9 Dustin Keller NYJ 27 4 65 815 5 112 36
10 Brent Celek PHI 26 5 62 811 5 111 35
11 Brandon PettigreDET 26 3 83 777 5 108 32 7 from 25-50vbd

12 Fred Davis WAS 25 4 59 793 3 97 21
13 Jermaine GreshamCIN 23 2 56 596 6 96 20
14 Jared Cook TEN 24 3 49 759 3 94 18
15 Kellen Winslow TB 28 8 75 763 2 88 12
16 Owen Daniels HOU 29 6 54 677 3 86 10
17 Jake Ballard NYG 24 2 38 604 4 84 8
18 Greg Olsen CAR 26 5 45 540 5 84 8
19 Ed Dickson BAL 24 2 54 528 5 83 7
20 Heath Miller PIT 29 7 51 631 2 76 0

2010
RANK NAME TM AGE EXP REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Jason Witten DAL 28 8 94 1002 9 154 80
2 Antonio Gates SD 30 8 50 782 10 138 64
3 Vernon Davis SF 26 5 56 914 7 133 59
4 Marcedes Lewis JAX 26 5 58 700 10 130 56 4 above 50vbd

5 Rob Gronkowski NE 21 1 42 546 10 115 41
6 Kellen Winslow JTB 27 7 66 730 5 103 29
7 Chris Cooley WAS 28 7 77 849 3 103 29
8 Tony Gonzalez ATL 34 14 70 656 6 102 28
9 Dustin Keller NYJ 26 3 55 687 5 99 25
10 Zach Miller OAK 25 4 60 685 5 99 25 6 from 25-50vbd

11 Aaron Hernandez NE 21 1 45 563 6 97 23
12 Brandon PettigreDET 25 2 71 722 4 96 22
13 Ben Watson CLE 30 7 68 763 3 94 20
14 Todd Heap BAL 30 10 40 599 5 90 16
15 Jacob Tamme IND 25 3 67 631 4 87 13
16 Kevin Boss NYG 26 4 35 531 5 83 9
17 Anthony Fasano MIA 26 5 39 528 4 77 3
18 Joel Dreessen HOU 28 6 36 517 4 76 2
19 Brent Celek PHI 25 4 42 511 4 75 1
20 Tony Moeaki KC 23 1 47 556 3 74 0

2009 I only used 18 instead of 20 because the 20 player had 65overall points which is 10 less than the average of around 75 for a 20 TE.

1 Vernon Davis SF 25 4 78 965 13 175 100
2 Dallas Clark IND 30 7 100 1106 10 172 97
3 Antonio Gates SD 29 7 79 1157 8 164 89
4 Brent Celek PHI 24 3 76 971 8 145 71 4 above 50vbd

5 Tony Gonzalez ATL 33 13 83 867 6 123 48
6 Visanthe ShiancoMIN 29 7 56 566 11 123 48
7 Kellen Winslow JTB 26 6 77 884 5 119 44
8 Jason Witten DAL 27 7 94 1030 2 115 40
9 Heath Miller PIT 27 5 76 789 6 115 40
10 Greg Olsen CHI 24 3 60 612 8 109 34 6 from 25-50vbd

11 John Carlson SEA 25 2 51 574 7 99 24
12 Zach Miller OAK 24 3 66 805 3 99 24
13 Jermichael FinleGB 22 2 55 676 5 98 23
14 Todd Heap BAL 29 9 53 593 6 96 21
15 Kevin Boss NYG 25 3 42 567 5 88 13
16 Fred Davis WAS 23 2 48 509 6 87 12
17 Owen Daniels HOU 27 4 40 519 5 82 7
18 Jeremy Shockey NO 29 8 48 569 3 75 0

2008 the 13th TE scored 74pts and TE 15-20 are less than 70pts. This is a problem so I set the baseline at TE 13 to remain consistent on the total points.

1 Tony Gonzalez KC 32 12 96 1058 10 166 92 1 above 50vbd

2 Jason Witten DAL 26 6 81 952 4 121 47
3 Dallas Clark IND 29 6 77 848 6 121 47
4 Antonio Gates SD 28 6 60 704 8 118 44
5 Visanthe ShiancoMIN 28 6 42 596 7 102 28 4 from 25-50vbd

6 Owen Daniels HOU 26 3 70 862 2 98 24
7 John Carlson SEA 24 1 55 627 5 93 19
8 Chris Cooley WAS 26 5 83 849 1 91 17
9 Anthony Fasano MIA 24 3 34 454 7 87 13
10 Greg Olsen CHI 23 2 54 574 5 87 13
11 Zach Miller OAK 23 2 56 778 1 84 10
12 Tony Scheffler DEN 25 3 40 645 3 82 8
13 Kevin Boss NYG 24 2 33 384 6 74 0

2007 Similar problem here. I have just decided to set the baseline between 74-76 total points for TE.

1 Jason Witten DAL 25 5 96 1145 7 157 83
2 Antonio Gates SD 27 5 75 984 9 152 78
3 Tony Gonzalez KC 31 11 99 1172 5 147 73
4 Kellen Winslow CLE 24 4 82 1106 5 141 67
5 Dallas Clark IND 28 5 58 616 11 131 57
6 Chris Cooley WAS 25 4 66 786 8 127 53 6 above 50vbd

7 Heath Miller PIT 25 3 47 566 7 99 25 1 from 25-50vbd

8 Owen Daniels HOU 25 2 63 768 3 95 21
9 Donald Lee GB 27 5 48 575 6 94 20
10 Tony Scheffler DEN 24 2 49 549 5 85 11
11 Jeremy Shockey NYG 27 6 57 619 3 81 7
12 Desmond Clark CHI 30 9 44 545 4 79 5
13 Ben Watson NE 27 4 36 389 6 76 2
14 Vernon Davis SF 23 2 52 509 4 75 1
15 Alge Crumpler ATL 30 7 42 444 5 74 0

2006 I considered adjusting to TE 13 at 69total points, but instead just left this alone. The further you go back the TE seem to be targeted less. TE from 2007 on are scoring enough that setting a deeper basline as I have is I think useful. There are more startable TE since 2007 than before. The rest of the data-

1 Antonio Gates SD 26 4 71 924 9 146 65 1 above 50vbd

2 Alge Crumpler ATL 29 6 56 780 8 126 45
3 Tony Gonzalez KC 30 10 73 900 5 120 39
4 Todd Heap BAL 26 6 73 765 6 113 31
5 Chris Cooley WAS 24 3 57 734 6 109 28 4 between 25-50vbd

6 Kellen Winslow CLE 23 3 89 875 3 106 24
7 Jeremy Shockey NYG 26 5 66 623 7 104 23
8 Desmond Clark CHI 29 8 45 626 6 99 17
9 L.J. Smith PHI 26 4 50 611 5 91 10
10 Ben Watson NE 26 3 49 643 3 82 1
11 Randy McMichael MIA 27 5 62 640 3 82 1
12 Jason Witten DAL 24 4 64 754 1 81 0

2005

1 Antonio Gates SD 25 3 89 1101 10 170 93
2 Jeremy Shockey NYG 25 4 65 891 7 131 54
3 Todd Heap BAL 25 5 75 855 7 128 51 3 above 50vbd

4 Chris Cooley WAS 23 2 71 774 7 119 42
5 Alge Crumpler ATL 28 5 65 877 5 118 41
6 Jason Witten DAL 23 3 66 757 6 112 35
7 Ernest Wilford JAX 26 2 41 681 7 110 33
8 Tony Gonzalez KC 29 9 78 905 2 103 26 5 between 25-50vbd

9 Randy McMichael MIA 26 4 60 582 5 88 11
10 L.J. Smith PHI 25 3 61 682 3 86 9
11 Jerramy Stevens SEA 26 4 45 554 5 85 8
12 Heath Miller PIT 23 1 39 459 6 82 5
13 Ben Troupe TEN 23 2 55 530 4 77 0

2004

1 Antonio Gates SD 24 2 81 964 13 174 105
2 Tony Gonzalez KC 28 8 102 1258 7 168 99
3 Jason Witten DAL 22 2 87 980 6 134 65 3 above 50vbd

4 Alge Crumpler ATL 27 4 48 774 6 113 44
5 Randy McMichael MIA 25 3 73 791 4 103 34
6 Jeremy Shockey NYG 24 3 61 666 6 103 33
7 Eric Johnson SF 25 4 82 825 2 95 25
8 Jermaine WigginsMIN 29 5 71 705 4 95 25 5 between 25-50vbd

9 Daniel Graham NE 26 3 30 364 7 78 9
10 Bubba Franks GB 26 5 34 361 7 78 9
11 Dallas Clark IND 25 2 25 423 5 72 3
12 Jeb Putzier DEN 25 2 36 572 2 69 0

2003 Unfortuntly baseline player TE12 here only scored 65pts

1 Tony Gonzalez KC 27 7 71 916 10 152 87
2 Shannon Sharpe DEN 35 14 62 770 8 125 60 2 above 50vbd

3 Todd Heap BAL 23 3 57 693 3 89 25 1 between 25-50vbd

4 Boo Williams NO 24 3 41 436 5 74 9
5 Alge Crumpler ATL 26 3 44 552 3 73 8
6 Itula Mili SEA 30 6 46 492 4 73 8
7 Marcus Pollard IND 31 9 40 541 3 72 7
8 Randy McMichael MIA 24 2 49 598 2 72 7
9 Freddie Jones ARI 29 7 55 517 3 70 5
10 Jim Kleinsasser MIN 26 5 46 401 4 66 1
11 Jeremy Shockey NYG 23 2 48 535 2 66 1
12 Daniel Graham NE 25 2 38 409 4 65 0

2002 TE12 only scored 63pts

1 Todd Heap BAL 22 2 68 836 6 123 61
2 Tony Gonzalez KC 26 6 63 773 7 119 56 2 above 50 vbd

3 Jeremy Shockey NYG 22 1 74 894 2 101 39
4 Bubba Franks GB 24 3 54 442 7 93 30
5 Shannon Sharpe DEN 34 13 61 686 3 87 24 3 between 25-50vbd

6 Marcus Pollard IND 30 8 43 478 6 84 21
7 Billy Miller HOU 25 4 51 613 3 79 16
8 Alge Crumpler ATL 25 2 36 455 5 76 13
9 Randy McMichael MIA 23 1 39 485 4 73 10
10 Kyle Brady JAX 30 8 43 461 4 70 7
11 Christian FauriaNE 31 8 27 253 7 67 4
12 Ernie Conwell STL 30 7 34 419 2 63 0

So from 2007-2012 there were 23 TE over 50vbd and 31 between 25-50. For those 6 seasons that means 3.83 TE/year performed at 50vbd or above. Over the last 5 seasons 15.4 RB/year performed at 50vbd or above and 11.4 WR/year . It is 4 times more likely that a RB will have a 50vbd season than a TE. The WR are much closer than this. Most of your TE prospects if they hit will be providing zero value or in the 25-50 range occasionally. The players who do perform at a 50vbd level are the elite TE. There are a few one hit wonders but most of those seasons were done by Witten, Gates, Gonzalez, Clark, Winslow, VD. More recently Graham and Gronk.

I just do not see how you can say that the TE position as a whole is more valuable that the RB. You can find many 50vbd seasons from RB but from a TE that is a pretty rare and sometimes unrepeatable occurrence for all but about 8 guys over the last 11 seasons.

 

[EBF]

Part of the problem is with faulty FF leagues that inflate the value of the RB position.

It creates an artificial scarcity and turns average NFL starters like Ridley and Murray into hot commodities when they really shouldn't be.

If I ever start a league it's going to be start 2 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, and 2 TE.

 

[Biabreakable]

While I hear what you are saying EBF it is also about the volume of touches. No scoring system is ever going to be able to change that.

I do think starting 4WR is a better option than PPR. It is more the scarcity issue I think than the points driving the demand, so increasing required starters at WR and TE balances that a great deal.

 

[EBF]

Not sure about that. In a start 2 RB/2 TE league with .5 ppr for RB and 1.5 PPR for TE, a guy like Jimmy Graham might be worth a lot more than a guy like Peterson.

I think the FF obsession with RBs is archaic and in need of changing.

I like the idea of flat formats that reward the best player. A great QB like Rodgers should clearly be worth more than a middling RB like Ridley. Likewise, a solid starter like Greg Olsen should not be worth far less than a similar caliber RB like Matt Forte. I'm in a few leagues that strongly emphasize the RB position and it forces the action, making everything pretty stale and predictable. RBs fly off the board every year because almost nobody is ever happy with their RB corps.

 

[Biabreakable]

In redraft it is important. But in dynasty, I am not trotting out a guy like Zac Stacy unless I get decimated by injuries or to cover a bye. If you are pulling rookie draft picks in to be starters, that is going to be a losing proposition. I would much rather a guy like Leveon Bell, Eddie Lacy, or Gio Bernard for this year than Stacy. I don't tend to be mining for year one starters in the second round. I look longer term, which is why I'd prefer Christine Michael or Marcus Lattimore to Stacy. Stacy's chances of being an impact player in the NFL are not good.

Most pre draft rankings I looked at had Michael ranked higher than Stacy on a talent basis but low because of character concerns. Michael was a 2nd round pick 62 overall drafted in the same area as Lacy at 61 and Ball at 58 before him.

I like Michael a lot and had him ahead of Stacy pre nfl draft. The reason I have Stacy higher is about situation. Lynch is a lot for any RB to beat out. So the short term prospects are not as good. I do understand the idea of taking the player you think is the most talented. The thing is you may not see any return on investment until 2015 if Lynch maintains his role the next 2 seasons. There are also other quality RB that Michael will need to beat out in Turbin and Ware as well. Michael might not get feature RB carries when Lynch moves on. That is hard to know right now. I do understand where you are coming from though and I think many see Michael as a legit talent including me. I think Stacy is very talented as well so I do not necessarily have Michael that far ahead of Stacy on pure talent. The situation is very important as well. If you have the roster space Michael is a good investment just as Lattimore is. I do have Michael ahead of Joseph Randle who I also see in line for some early carries for the Cowboys. This is a fine line with me and I could see taking Randle over Michael if I am looking for quicker results. Depends on my team goals and roster for the season. Most of the time I do not plan to play rookies at all. If rookies do break out I consider selling. That is part of why I value a player in a better situation because of the earlier sell opportunity. A player like Michael I may still be wondering what his role will be in 2015. He is a less actionable asset.

 

[EBF]

In redraft it is important. But in dynasty, I am not trotting out a guy like Zac Stacy unless I get decimated by injuries or to cover a bye. If you are pulling rookie draft picks in to be starters, that is going to be a losing proposition. I would much rather a guy like Leveon Bell, Eddie Lacy, or Gio Bernard for this year than Stacy. I don't tend to be mining for year one starters in the second round. I look longer term, which is why I'd prefer Christine Michael or Marcus Lattimore to Stacy. Stacy's chances of being an impact player in the NFL are not good.

Most pre draft rankings I looked at had Michael ranked higher than Stacy on a talent basis but low because of character concerns. Michael was a 2nd round pick 62 overall drafted in the same area as Lacy at 61 and Ball at 58 before him.

I like Michael a lot and had him ahead of Stacy pre nfl draft. The reason I have Stacy higher is about situation. Lynch is a lot for any RB to beat out. So the short term prospects are not as good. I do understand the idea of taking the player you think is the most talented. The thing is you may not see any return on investment until 2015 if Lynch maintains his role the next 2 seasons. There are also other quality RB that Michael will need to beat out in Turbin and Ware as well. Michael might not get feature RB carries when Lynch moves on. That is hard to know right now. I do understand where you are coming from though and I think many see Michael as a legit talent including me. I think Stacy is very talented as well so I do not necessarily have Michael that far ahead of Stacy on pure talent. The situation is very important as well. If you have the roster space Michael is a good investment just as Lattimore is. I do have Michael ahead of Joseph Randle who I also see in line for some early carries for the Cowboys. This is a fine line with me and I could see taking Randle over Michael if I am looking for quicker results. Depends on my team goals and roster for the season. Most of the time I do not plan to play rookies at all. If rookies do break out I consider selling. That is part of why I value a player in a better situation because of the earlier sell opportunity. A player like Michael I may still be wondering what his role will be in 2015. He is a less actionable asset.

Every owner has his own philosophy and I guess I can't fault people who look for more of a quick profit.

However, I think that's an exploitable way of approaching things.

Look at the FBG staff dynasty rankings. They currently have Bell, Ball, and Lacy at RB23, RB24, and RB25. They have Michael at RB50 (???).

If you lean too much on short window thinking and immediate returns, you run the risk of discounting talent to such a gross extent that you miss out on eventual great players because you're so caught up in a redraft mindset that you can't see the bigger picture. The cream rises. Almost every player who has the talent to thrive will eventually get the chance. Consider what happened with guys like Deuce McAllister, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Willis McGahee, Michael Turner, and Larry Johnson. They were drafted into ugly spots, but they eventually paid major dividends.

In my rankings Michael would be right up there with guys like Bell and Ball. I'd give him a very slight downgrade based on his lack of immediate potential, but that's it. When you start bumping him down below scrubs, has-beens, and never-weres, you're crossing a line from reasonable caution to blatant mistake. I would rather have a great prospect today than a great prospect two years from now, but I'd rather have a great prospect two years from now than a mediocre talent today. That's how I see the basic debate between a guy like Michael and a guy like Stacy. There's enough of a talent gap there that I couldn't possibly take the lower pick over the higher one, opportunity be damned. I'd much rather wait a week for a quarter than get a nickel today.

I was able to get Bernard Pierce in the 2nd-3rd round of many leagues last year while people spent first round picks on Hillman and Pead. Opportunity is important, but above all you want good players. In most cases a good player with no immediate route to relevance will end up being worth a lot more than a bad player with an immediate crack at playing time.

Michael is a great buy low candidate in leagues where people aren't valuing him on par with guys like Bell and Ball because he has a built-in value bump. There's a very good chance that Lynch will move on within a year or two and Michael has to be considered a strong favorite to inherit the job. His value will balloon at that point like Lamar Miller and David Wilson right now. He doesn't even have to play well. Just well enough to get a chance.