Zac Stacy is the highest drafted 5th round or later NFL pick in dynast (1 Viewer)

[Nero]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about. I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

Stacy went 1.8, 1.10 and 1.11 in my leagues which drafted long before it was clear he would compete for the starting position. I was kind of surprised he lasted until the 5th round because I thought he was the best RB in the draft last year. Many were on the Stacy bandwagon as soon as he was drafted. The Rams got the best back in the draft again this year IMO.

 

[Biabreakable]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR
2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB
4. Ball, Montee DEN RB
5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB
6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR
7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR
8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE
9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB
10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB
11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR
12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR
13. Stacy, Zac STL RB
14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB
15. Woods, Robert BUF WR
16. Michael, Christine SEA RB
17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR
18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR
19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB
20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB
21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE
22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE
23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR
24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR
25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR
26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB
27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR
28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB
29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB
30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB
31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR
32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR

2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

4. Ball, Montee DEN RB

5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR

12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR

13. Stacy, Zac STL RB

14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

15. Woods, Robert BUF WR

16. Michael, Christine SEA RB

17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB

20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB

21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE

22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE

23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR

24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR

25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR

26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR

28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB

29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB

30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB

31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

Any RB taken in the first four rounds, and WR taken in the first three, and any QB or TE taken in the first two were statistically strong bets to out produce Zac Stacy in career points over baseline in standard scoring.

There are definitely a handful of guys drafted later that I preferred then, and still prefer now over him. Last year he definitely did more than I thought he would, so yeah, I missed out in redraft leagues, but in terms of dynasty, all he really showed, IMO, is that he can compile in the face of pretty crappy competition. We'll see how things go this year and moving forward with Mason and whoever else they add in the future around. I'd certainly have been shopping Stacy, hard, if I owned him considering the third round startup prices he was commanding before this year's draft, so if you were smart enough to buy last year and sell at a huge profit early this offseason, then absolutely very nicely done. That's not how I roll, though; I've been burned too many times by being unable to flip a player in time and would rather just buy on talent that I believe in.

Nothing "sour grapes" about it, either. I've advocated the importance of draft position and talent over situation in dynasty FF for years, and will absolutely continue to do so moving forward. Missing on Stacy etc is offset by not getting burned on Troy Davis etc. There's no magic bullet and YMMV, of course.

 

[Biabreakable]

Stacy lived up to his draft position and the players drafted in the 1st 3 rounds of the NFL draft who were taken after Stacy did not outperform him.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Stacy lived up to his draft position and the players drafted in the 1st 3 rounds of the NFL draft who were taken after Stacy did not outperform him.

Thought we were talking about dynasty here -- and I'm certainly not closing the book either way positive or negative on any player after their rookie year. I certainly might be wrong on Stacy long term, but it also very possible that I'm right, and either way, the larger sample sizes provided by looking at years of draft results are something that I'll continue to weigh very heavily moving forward.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

I have all 4 of my drafts before June ends - 3 of them right after the NFL draft. The latest he went in any league was 2.04 and he went in the first round in two of them. Small sample size, but I think it was basically he consensus.

 

[ShaHBucks]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/29/secret-superstars-2014-rams/

Secret Superstars 2014: Rams

Matt Claassen | May 29, 2014

The St Louis Rams finished with seven wins for the fourth straight season in 2013 and couldn’t get out of the bottom spot in the tough NFC West. Among last season’s challenges was replacing long-time Ram Steven Jackson, who voided the final year of his contract and departed for Atlanta last offseason. Jackson’s departure left the biggest hole at running back since the pre-Marshall Faulk era, circa 1998.

Their attempt to replace Jackson started out unsuccessful, but a few games into the season they found their man, rookie Zac Stacy. The Rams’ fifth-round pick in 2013, Stacy came into the league after setting numerous Vanderbilt records, including single season and career rushing yardage records. He entered training camp as one of a few possibilities to take over for Jackson but his professional career started off rough.

Getting Started

Stacy had some minor injuries in the preseason that caused him to miss some time. When he was on the field, his production amounted to 68 yards on 23 carries and a long run of 7 yards over three preseason games. Running behind a second-string offensive line may not have helped, but he did little to help himself by averaging an unspectacular 1.6 yards after contact in the preseason. Stacy did not look strong on pass plays either. He dropped two of his six pass targets and allowed three pressures on 17 pass blocks. Albeit on a small sample size, his overall grade of -3.6 in the preseason ranked 110th out of 120 running backs.

Stacy failed to make a case for playing time and fell behind starter Daryl Richardson and undrafted rookie Benny Cunningham heading into the regular season. Low on the depth chart, Stacy played eight snaps in Week 1. He was handed a single carry for 4 yards and was beaten for one hurry on three pass blocks. The coaching staff kept him inactive for the next two games in favor of second-year player Isaiah Pead, and Stacy played just one snap in Week 4.

Receiving an Opportunity

With the other three backs proving ineffective and Richardson putting forth a dreadful performance in Week 4, Stacy was given the opportunity to start in Week 5 and did not disappoint, gaining 78 yards while splitting time with Richardson. Stacy had just scratched the surface, though. He continued to receive the majority of touches and earned +5.7 rush and +7.3 overall grades over his first five starts. In Week’s 8 and 9 against the Seahawks and Titans, respectively, he picked up a combined 307 rushing/receiving yards on 60 touches, two touchdowns, and forced 13 missed tackles.

Second Half Roller Coaster

Week 10 marked his third straight game with 26-plus rush attempts, but he performed poorly compared to the preceding games. He gained just 62 yards, was unable to force a missed tackle, and dropped a pass en route to his lowest-graded game of the season (-2.6 overall). In the next game against the Bears, he began to bounce back but a concussion ended his day early at 12 attempts for 87 yards and a touchdown.

The final five games of the season were up-and-down and for the most part, nowhere near his early season production. He averaged less than two yards per carry against the Cardinals before posting a 133 rushing yard performance against the Saints, in which he gained 110 yards after contact. His resurgence was short-lived and he earned a -1.8 rush grade in consecutive weeks to end the season. Stacy didn’t fare as well against the Seahawks the second time around with just 15 rushing yards on as many carries.

Even though Stacy’s season ended on a down note, he was easily the most productive back on the team. He exceeded expectations as a late-round rookie and showed he was capable of shouldering the entire workload. Stacy finished the season just shy of 1,000 yards in roughly 12 games and had the eighth-most yards after contact. Although his consistency left something to be desired (he forced 21 of his 29 missed tackles in a four game stretch), he clearly showed the ability to perform at a high level.

The Future

The Rams cut Richardson two weeks ago and Stacy enters the 2014 season atop the running back depth chart. He will likely receive the bulk of the playing time once again, but third-round draft pick Tre Mason should also figure into the equation. Stacy’s playing time shouldn’t be affected too much because of their difference in running style. If the Rams indeed utilize Mason as a change-of-pace back, Mason’s playing time will probably come at the expense of Pead and Cunningham instead of Stacy. Regardless, Stacy will be an important part of the Rams’ success on offense.

Bingo was his name-o

 

[jurb26]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

I have all 4 of my drafts before June ends - 3 of them right after the NFL draft. The latest he went in any league was 2.04 and he went in the first round in two of them. Small sample size, but I think it was basically he consensus.

All of my drafts are the week after the NFL draft. He didn't go in the 1st of a single one. Not even close, actually. His adp was far from it as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

Stacy lived up to his draft position and the players drafted in the 1st 3 rounds of the NFL draft who were taken after Stacy did not outperform him.

Thought we were talking about dynasty here -- and I'm certainly not closing the book either way positive or negative on any player after their rookie year. I certainly might be wrong on Stacy long term, but it also very possible that I'm right, and either way, the larger sample sizes provided by looking at years of draft results are something that I'll continue to weigh very heavily moving forward.

Yes definitely talking about dynasty.

I use different time frame expectations for RB compared to other positions. I am pretty much only concerned with the next 2 seasons for RB due to the high turnover and volatility of the position compared to others.

My goal or target for Stacy as stated earlier on in this thread was for him to produce 50vbd in 2013 or 2014. Stacy fell short of that with 37 but he made that type of impact on a per game basis when he got the opportunity.

I used FBG numbers for this at baseline RB 30 WR 36 to reflect a start 2 RB league w byes/injuries causing more than 24 RB starts over the course of the season. 36 WR to reflect starting 3.


RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Jamaal Charles KC 27 6 259 1287 12 70 693 7 312 190
2 LeSean McCoy PHI 25 5 314 1607 9 52 539 2 281 159
3 Matt Forte CHI 28 6 288 1341 9 75 592 3 265 143
4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 27 7 301 1257 12 36 316 2 241 119
5 Knowshon Moreno DEN 26 5 241 1038 10 60 548 3 237 115
6 Adrian Peterson MIN 28 7 279 1266 10 29 171 1 210 88
7 Eddie Lacy GB 22 1 284 1178 11 35 257 0 210 87
8 DeMarco Murray DAL 25 3 217 1124 9 53 350 1 207 85
9 Chris Johnson TEN 28 6 279 1077 6 42 345 4 202 80
10 Reggie Bush DET 28 8 223 1006 4 54 506 3 193 71
11 Fred Jackson BUF 32 7 207 896 9 46 375 1 187 65
12 Ryan Mathews SD 26 4 285 1255 6 26 189 1 186 64
13 Frank Gore SF 30 9 276 1128 9 16 141 0 181 59
14 Alfred Morris WAS 25 2 276 1275 7 9 78 0 177 55
15 LeVeon Bell PIT 21 1 244 860 8 45 399 0 174 52
16 Giovani Bernard CIN 22 1 170 695 5 56 514 3 169 47
17 Joique Bell DET 27 4 166 650 8 53 547 0 168 46
18 Zac Stacy STL 22 1 250 973 7 26 141 1 159 37
19 Danny Woodhead SD 28 6 106 429 2 76 605 6 151 29
20 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 28 8 234 803 5 43 314 0 146 24
21 DeAngelo Williams CAR 30 8 201 843 3 26 333 1 142 20
22 Rashad Jennings OAK 28 5 163 733 6 36 292 0 139 16
23 Pierre Thomas NO 29 7 147 549 2 77 513 3 136 14
24 Rashard Mendenhall ARI 26 6 217 687 8 18 134 0 130 8
25 Andre Ellington ARI 24 1 118 652 3 39 371 1 126 4
26 Stevan Ridley NE 24 3 178 773 7 10 62 0 126 4
27 C.J. Spiller BUF 26 4 201 927 2 34 197 0 124 2
28 Donald Brown IND 26 5 102 537 6 27 214 2 123 1
29 LeGarrette Blount NE 27 4 153 772 7 2 38 0 123 1
30 Ray Rice BAL 26 6 214 660 4 58 321 0 122 0

41 Montee Ball DEN 23 1 120 561 4 20 145 0 95 -27
58 Knile Davis KC 22 1 70 242 4 11 75 0 56 -66


RANK NAME TM AGE EXP RSH YD TD REC YD TD FPT VBD
1 Josh Gordon CLE 22 2 5 88 0 87 1646 9 227 118
2 Demaryius Thomas DEN 26 4 0 0 0 92 1430 14 227 117
3 Calvin Johnson DET 28 7 0 0 0 84 1492 12 221 111
4 A.J. Green CIN 25 3 0 0 0 98 1426 11 209 99
5 Brandon Marshall CHI 29 8 0 0 0 100 1295 12 202 92
6 Dez Bryant DAL 25 4 1 1 0 93 1233 13 201 92
7 Antonio Brown PIT 25 4 7 4 0 110 1499 8 199 89
8 Eric Decker DEN 26 4 0 0 0 87 1288 11 195 85
9 Alshon Jeffery CHI 23 2 16 105 0 89 1421 7 195 85
10 DeSean Jackson PHI 27 6 3 2 0 82 1332 9 187 78
11 Jordy Nelson GB 28 6 0 0 0 85 1314 8 179 70
12 Andre Johnson HOU 32 11 0 0 0 109 1407 5 171 61
13 Pierre Garcon WAS 27 6 2 19 0 113 1346 5 167 57
14 Vincent Jackson TB 30 9 1 0 0 78 1224 7 164 55
15 Anquan Boldin SF 33 11 2 11 0 85 1179 7 161 51
16 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 30 10 2 8 0 82 954 10 156 46
17 Keenan Allen SD 21 1 0 0 0 71 1046 8 153 43
18 Julian Edelman NE 27 5 2 11 0 105 1056 6 143 33
19 T.Y. Hilton IND 24 2 2 6 0 82 1083 5 139 29
20 Wes Welker DEN 32 10 0 0 0 73 778 10 138 28
21 Marvin Jones CIN 23 2 8 65 0 51 712 10 138 28
22 Torrey Smith BAL 24 3 0 0 0 65 1128 4 137 27
23 Michael Floyd ARI 24 2 0 0 0 65 1041 5 134 24
24 Riley Cooper PHI 26 4 0 18 0 47 833 8 133 23
25 Mike Wallace MIA 27 5 3 33 0 73 930 5 126 16
26 Brian Hartline MIA 27 5 0 0 0 76 1016 4 126 16
27 Marques Colston NO 30 8 0 0 0 75 943 5 124 14
28 Victor Cruz NYG 27 4 0 0 0 73 998 4 124 14
29 Golden Tate SEA 25 4 3 31 0 64 898 5 123 13
30 Kendall Wright TEN 24 2 0 0 0 94 1079 2 120 10
31 Jerricho Cotchery PIT 31 10 1 -5 0 46 602 10 120 10
32 Harry Douglas ATL 28 6 0 0 0 85 1067 2 119 9
33 Rod Streater OAK 25 2 2 17 0 60 888 4 115 5
34 Eddie Royal SD 27 6 3 21 0 47 631 8 113 3
35 Emmanuel Sanders PIT 26 4 1 25 0 67 740 6 113 3
36 Nate Washington TEN 30 9 0 0 0 58 919 3 110 0

Other notable rookies below baseline-

38 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 22 1 12 158 3 45 469 4 105 -5
40 Terrance Williams DAL 24 1 3 4 0 44 736 5 104 -6
47 Kenny Stills NO 21 1 3 10 0 32 641 5 95 -15
50 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 21 1 0 0 0 52 802 2 92 -18
55 Tavon Austin STL 22 1 9 151 1 40 418 4 87 -23
58 Robert Woods BUF 21 1 2 16 0 40 587 3 78 -32
59 Aaron Dobson NE 22 1 0 0 0 37 519 4 76 -34
65 Kenbrell Thompkins NE 25 1 0 0 0 32 466 4 71 -39
75 Justin Hunter TEN 22 1 0 0 0 18 354 4 59 -51

It remains to be seen if Stacy can maintain a prominent role in the offense with Mason now competing with him. But so far he has come close to the upside expected for him and well ahead of the players drafted after him.

The WR careers will last longer. So a player like Woods might add more total VBD over a longer time. But I would still need to compare the difference of VBD impact for one season over marginal impact over many seasons.

For example lets say Woods goes on to have 4 seasons of 10-20 VBD/season and Stacy never produces positive VBD again. The impact of that 37 VBD season would still be more valuable than 3 seasons of 15 VBD from Woods, with a 4th season of that then pushing him ahead of Stacy over the long term, but still not making as much of a difference towards winning as Stacy did in 2013.

Anyhow that is how I look at it. Stacy performed competitively with players drafted ahead of him as well. I think he has earned his draft position.

 

[Vector]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

I have all 4 of my drafts before June ends - 3 of them right after the NFL draft. The latest he went in any league was 2.04 and he went in the first round in two of them. Small sample size, but I think it was basically he consensus.

All of my drafts are the week after the NFL draft. He didn't go in the 1st of a single one. Not even close, actually. His adp was far from it as well.

This may be a result of the quality of owners in jurb's leagues and DocOc's leagues.

 

[jurb26]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

I have all 4 of my drafts before June ends - 3 of them right after the NFL draft. The latest he went in any league was 2.04 and he went in the first round in two of them. Small sample size, but I think it was basically he consensus.

All of my drafts are the week after the NFL draft. He didn't go in the 1st of a single one. Not even close, actually. His adp was far from it as well.

This may be a result of the quality of owners in jurb's leagues and DocOc's leagues.

Makes sense. Most of the are here, lol.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

I have all 4 of my drafts before June ends - 3 of them right after the NFL draft. The latest he went in any league was 2.04 and he went in the first round in two of them. Small sample size, but I think it was basically he consensus.

All of my drafts are the week after the NFL draft. He didn't go in the 1st of a single one. Not even close, actually. His adp was far from it as well.

This may be a result of the quality of owners in jurb's leagues and DocOc's leagues.

Makes sense. Most of the are here, lol.

This whole thread was a debate between those that thought spending a late first / early second was a risk worth taking and those that argued he wasn't worth it due to being a fifth round pick.

His ADP at MFL was also 2.01 so if you think you are insulting my leagues, it seems that they were in the same place as ADP. I also assure you that the owners in all of my leagues (except for perhaps my hometown league) are on par with anyone else that plays this game.

 

[LususV]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR

2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

4. Ball, Montee DEN RB

5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR

12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR

13. Stacy, Zac STL RB

14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

15. Woods, Robert BUF WR

16. Michael, Christine SEA RB

17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB

20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB

21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE

22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE

23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR

24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR

25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR

26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR

28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB

29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB

30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB

31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

Any RB taken in the first four rounds, and WR taken in the first three, and any QB or TE taken in the first two were statistically strong bets to out produce Zac Stacy in career points over baseline in standard scoring.

There are definitely a handful of guys drafted later that I preferred then, and still prefer now over him. Last year he definitely did more than I thought he would, so yeah, I missed out in redraft leagues, but in terms of dynasty, all he really showed, IMO, is that he can compile in the face of pretty crappy competition. We'll see how things go this year and moving forward with Mason and whoever else they add in the future around. I'd certainly have been shopping Stacy, hard, if I owned him considering the third round startup prices he was commanding before this year's draft, so if you were smart enough to buy last year and sell at a huge profit early this offseason, then absolutely very nicely done. That's not how I roll, though; I've been burned too many times by being unable to flip a player in time and would rather just buy on talent that I believe in.

Nothing "sour grapes" about it, either. I've advocated the importance of draft position and talent over situation in dynasty FF for years, and will absolutely continue to do so moving forward. Missing on Stacy etc is offset by not getting burned on Troy Davis etc. There's no magic bullet and YMMV, of course.

See, I think you're ignoring the 'talent' coin. I know I liked Stacy for his talent more so than his situation; ditto RotoViz and a host of others. He never had a stud RB1 ceiling (doesn't have the long speed to bust 50+ yard TDs), but I thought he was solid enough to be a perennial RB2.

Talent trumps draft slot for me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR

2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

4. Ball, Montee DEN RB

5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR

12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR

13. Stacy, Zac STL RB

14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

15. Woods, Robert BUF WR

16. Michael, Christine SEA RB

17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB

20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB

21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE

22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE

23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR

24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR

25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR

26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR

28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB

29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB

30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB

31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

Any RB taken in the first four rounds, and WR taken in the first three, and any QB or TE taken in the first two were statistically strong bets to out produce Zac Stacy in career points over baseline in standard scoring.There are definitely a handful of guys drafted later that I preferred then, and still prefer now over him. Last year he definitely did more than I thought he would, so yeah, I missed out in redraft leagues, but in terms of dynasty, all he really showed, IMO, is that he can compile in the face of pretty crappy competition. We'll see how things go this year and moving forward with Mason and whoever else they add in the future around. I'd certainly have been shopping Stacy, hard, if I owned him considering the third round startup prices he was commanding before this year's draft, so if you were smart enough to buy last year and sell at a huge profit early this offseason, then absolutely very nicely done. That's not how I roll, though; I've been burned too many times by being unable to flip a player in time and would rather just buy on talent that I believe in.

Nothing "sour grapes" about it, either. I've advocated the importance of draft position and talent over situation in dynasty FF for years, and will absolutely continue to do so moving forward. Missing on Stacy etc is offset by not getting burned on Troy Davis etc. There's no magic bullet and YMMV, of course.

See, I think you're ignoring the 'talent' coin. I know I liked Stacy for his talent more so than his situation; ditto RotoViz and a host of others. He never had a stud RB1 ceiling (doesn't have the long speed to bust 50+ yard TDs), but I thought he was solid enough to be a perennial RB2.

Talent trumps draft slot for me.

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

 

[LususV]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR

2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

4. Ball, Montee DEN RB

5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR

12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR

13. Stacy, Zac STL RB

14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

15. Woods, Robert BUF WR

16. Michael, Christine SEA RB

17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB

20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB

21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE

22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE

23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR

24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR

25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR

26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR

28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB

29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB

30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB

31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

Any RB taken in the first four rounds, and WR taken in the first three, and any QB or TE taken in the first two were statistically strong bets to out produce Zac Stacy in career points over baseline in standard scoring.There are definitely a handful of guys drafted later that I preferred then, and still prefer now over him. Last year he definitely did more than I thought he would, so yeah, I missed out in redraft leagues, but in terms of dynasty, all he really showed, IMO, is that he can compile in the face of pretty crappy competition. We'll see how things go this year and moving forward with Mason and whoever else they add in the future around. I'd certainly have been shopping Stacy, hard, if I owned him considering the third round startup prices he was commanding before this year's draft, so if you were smart enough to buy last year and sell at a huge profit early this offseason, then absolutely very nicely done. That's not how I roll, though; I've been burned too many times by being unable to flip a player in time and would rather just buy on talent that I believe in.

Nothing "sour grapes" about it, either. I've advocated the importance of draft position and talent over situation in dynasty FF for years, and will absolutely continue to do so moving forward. Missing on Stacy etc is offset by not getting burned on Troy Davis etc. There's no magic bullet and YMMV, of course.

See, I think you're ignoring the 'talent' coin. I know I liked Stacy for his talent more so than his situation; ditto RotoViz and a host of others. He never had a stud RB1 ceiling (doesn't have the long speed to bust 50+ yard TDs), but I thought he was solid enough to be a perennial RB2.

Talent trumps draft slot for me.

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

I've gotten into some 'arguments' on twitter over this recently, and I think my POV has become:

What goes into an NFL draft pick has so many additional criteria than what makes a good fantasy football prospect. We don't get points for blocking, and the cost of wasting a 1st round rookie pick on a Justin Blackmon is a whole lost less important than the cost of wasting a 1st round NFL pick (or 2nd or 3rd or even 4th) on a guy who busts his way out of football.

Longwinded way of saying my belief on NFL skill position drafts (QB, RB, WR) are much more influenced by high floor talents, whereas fantasy football drafts are much more influenced by high ceiling talents. A 4th round receiver who becomes a career 3rd receiver for his rookie deal was not a wasted pick, but a 2nd round fantasy pick who does the same is a waste.

I also think the devaluation of the RB position makes the traditional 'if you aren't drafted in first 3 rounds you will probably cap at backup' idea to bed (I do still highly value draft position for WRs though, but only after I've analyzed the physical upside of a guy; Paul Richardson has a lower upside than Allen Robinson, for example, imo).

 

[Nero]

This thread was started in reaction to him going mid / late 1st consistently in dynasty drafts.

Which was never true. I drafted him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not until it was pretty clear he would compete for a job did his adp rise to the point you are talking about.I'm pretty sure you already know this as you were one of the people pretty vocal in those threads.

He went high 2nd or earlier in every league I'm in, most of which draft in May. And it was still a very low percentage pick. Every once in a while you hit your two-outer on the river, but that doesn't mean that it's a good bet to make. Hope you sold Stacy high this offseason.

MFL results of 551 rookie drafts in 2013-

1. Austin, Tavon STL WR

2. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB

3. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB

4. Ball, Montee DEN RB

5. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB

6. Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR

7. Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR

8. Eifert, Tyler CIN TE

9. Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB

10. Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB

11. Allen, Keenan SDC WR

12. Hunter, Justin TEN WR

13. Stacy, Zac STL RB

14. Manuel, E.J. BUF QB

15. Woods, Robert BUF WR

16. Michael, Christine SEA RB

17. Dobson, Aaron NEP WR

18. Wheaton, Markus PIT WR

19. Smith, Geno NYJ QB

20. Randle, Joseph DAL RB

21. Ertz, Zach PHI TE

22. Kelce, Travis KCC TE

23. Williams, Terrance DAL WR

24. Bailey, Stedman STL WR

25. Patton, Quinton SFO WR

26. Gillislee, Mike MIA RB

27. Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR

28. Ellington, Andre ARI RB

29. Robinson, Denard JAC RB

30. Barkley, Matt PHI QB

31. Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR

32. Murray, Latavius OAK RB

Who was a better bet than Zac Stacy?

Seems to me people looked at this situation and valued him correctly. It is not like they were passing some better player/situation by taking him there.

Sour grapes.

Any RB taken in the first four rounds, and WR taken in the first three, and any QB or TE taken in the first two were statistically strong bets to out produce Zac Stacy in career points over baseline in standard scoring.There are definitely a handful of guys drafted later that I preferred then, and still prefer now over him. Last year he definitely did more than I thought he would, so yeah, I missed out in redraft leagues, but in terms of dynasty, all he really showed, IMO, is that he can compile in the face of pretty crappy competition. We'll see how things go this year and moving forward with Mason and whoever else they add in the future around. I'd certainly have been shopping Stacy, hard, if I owned him considering the third round startup prices he was commanding before this year's draft, so if you were smart enough to buy last year and sell at a huge profit early this offseason, then absolutely very nicely done. That's not how I roll, though; I've been burned too many times by being unable to flip a player in time and would rather just buy on talent that I believe in.

Nothing "sour grapes" about it, either. I've advocated the importance of draft position and talent over situation in dynasty FF for years, and will absolutely continue to do so moving forward. Missing on Stacy etc is offset by not getting burned on Troy Davis etc. There's no magic bullet and YMMV, of course.

See, I think you're ignoring the 'talent' coin. I know I liked Stacy for his talent more so than his situation; ditto RotoViz and a host of others. He never had a stud RB1 ceiling (doesn't have the long speed to bust 50+ yard TDs), but I thought he was solid enough to be a perennial RB2.

Talent trumps draft slot for me.

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

 

[ffgiant]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

 

[FF Ninja]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

I certainly haven't seen a ton of Stacy personally (not a guy I own and certainly don't have time to watch every game LOL), but based on the stats and the few pieces of games I did catch, along with his draft slot and everything else, I'm seeing "compiler." Now I agree that I'm not taking Mason over him in redraft, and teh rookie fever is usually absurd, but for dynasty purposes, Stacy isn't a dude that I'd be hitching my wagon to at the prices he's commanding ATM (ADP of RB11 in the 3rd round of startups). He's likely JAG IMO -- (+) power, but not really dynamic and pretty meh as a receiver in the open field. IMO he's not the type of talent that can be just written in as a long window starter -- any random mid round RB is a potential threat to take enough of his volume to really hurt -- could be Mason, could be a random dude next year, could be no one and he's great for years -- either way, I'm not touching him as a RB1 in dynasty. Redraft, yeah, sure, he'll likely be a value if Mason hype gets crazy.

 

[cstu]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I think basing a guy's value on his draft slot after he's actually played in the NFL is usually a bad idea. That's a guaranteed way of missing out on outliers. And those outliers can be big difference makers.

For instance, I liked what I saw from Priest Holmes in Baltimore enough to hold onto him despite his low pedigree.

I loved Fred Jackson from the very beginning because he produced everywhere and anytime he was given a shot. Another Bill I liked and was disappointed they let go was Joique Bell.

IMO, the RB position may be the fantasy position where draft pedigree is the least effective in using it for valuing players (well, outside of kickers of course)

 

[Nero]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

There is nothing wrong with not being special as there are only a handful of special guys. There wasn't a special back in last years crop, but Stacy was the best of the bunch IMO. Problem is that Mason is the best of this year's crop of nothing special backs IMO. Therefore I think they will both play a lot because they are both pretty good.

 

[hxperson]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

There is nothing wrong with not being special as there are only a handful of special guys. There wasn't a special back in last years crop, but Stacy was the best of the bunch IMO. Problem is that Mason is the best of this year's crop of nothing special backs IMO. Therefore I think they will both play a lot because they are both pretty good.

Really? I didn't watch Stacy too much but from what I saw I thought Bernard, Lacy and Ball were all much better and more talented than him. Stacy seemed serviceable but not much more. I didn't see anything that made me think he was their no brainer long term solution at running back. if you have some clips that would change my mind please send it over.

 

[Vector]

This whole thread was a debate between those that thought spending a late first / early second was a risk worth taking and those that argued he wasn't worth it due to being a fifth round pick.

His ADP at MFL was also 2.01 so if you think you are insulting my leagues, it seems that they were in the same place as ADP. I also assure you that the owners in all of my leagues (except for perhaps my hometown league) are on par with anyone else that plays this game.

Doc,

I think I was going the other direction with this. I think Zac was definitely worth a late 1st.

Cheers.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This whole thread was a debate between those that thought spending a late first / early second was a risk worth taking and those that argued he wasn't worth it due to being a fifth round pick.

His ADP at MFL was also 2.01 so if you think you are insulting my leagues, it seems that they were in the same place as ADP. I also assure you that the owners in all of my leagues (except for perhaps my hometown league) are on par with anyone else that plays this game.

Doc,

I think I was going the other direction with this. I think Zac was definitely worth a late 1st.

Cheers.

No worries either way. I didn't really take insult by it, especially when ADP supported the picks.

 

[cstu]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

There is nothing wrong with not being special as there are only a handful of special guys. There wasn't a special back in last years crop, but Stacy was the best of the bunch IMO. Problem is that Mason is the best of this year's crop of nothing special backs IMO. Therefore I think they will both play a lot because they are both pretty good.

I agree, nothing wrong with not being a special back...until your team drafts a RB in the 3rd round after your rookie year.

There's one situation that I thought of that's in Stacy's favor - Rudi Johnson. Despite coming off a near 1000 yard season (4.5 YPC) in his 3rd year the Bengals drafted Chris Perry at the end of the 1st round the following year. Perry's career was derailed by injuries and Rudi went on to compile three 1300+ yard seasons.

 

[Nero]

I'm not expecting a Rudi Johnson type of situation. I'm of the opinion that the Rams got the best running back in the draft, two years in a row. I expect a Deangelo/Stewart, Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown type of split. They will both be good. Mason's footwork is some of the best in the business, but Stacy's balance and toughness can't be dismissed. I think they will keep each other from being a RB1 outside of injury, but both will be useful.

 

[FF Ninja]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

Haha, so I guess we are just glossing over situation in order to jump to whatever conclusion suits us? The Rams were the 29th ranked passing attack last year. Actually, they drop to 31st if you remove the first four games in which Stacy didn't play. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense every week. Also, I believe Forte, McFadden, and LT put up 3.9 ypc or worse their first year in the league. But sure, dismiss him based on that if you wish and get excited about a third round pick. Those guys are pretty much locks to pan out.

 

[cstu]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

Haha, so I guess we are just glossing over situation in order to jump to whatever conclusion suits us? The Rams were the 29th ranked passing attack last year. Actually, they drop to 31st if you remove the first four games in which Stacy didn't play. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense every week. Also, I believe Forte, McFadden, and LT put up 3.9 ypc or worse their first year in the league. But sure, dismiss him based on that if you wish and get excited about a third round pick. Those guys are pretty much locks to pan out.

He's not a freakish talent like LT or DMC and he's not a great receiver like Forte. I'm not dismissing Stacy but the Rams didn't spend a 3rd on a RB without some concern about him. He may be able to keep the starting job and be a good fantasy back, but the Rams drafting Mason is a bad sign for him that you can't ignore.

 

[cstu]

I'm not expecting a Rudi Johnson type of situation. I'm of the opinion that the Rams got the best running back in the draft, two years in a row. I expect a Deangelo/Stewart, Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown type of split. They will both be good. Mason's footwork is some of the best in the business, but Stacy's balance and toughness can't be dismissed. I think they will keep each other from being a RB1 outside of injury, but both will be useful.

This is my biggest concern.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

Haha, so I guess we are just glossing over situation in order to jump to whatever conclusion suits us? The Rams were the 29th ranked passing attack last year. Actually, they drop to 31st if you remove the first four games in which Stacy didn't play. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense every week. Also, I believe Forte, McFadden, and LT put up 3.9 ypc or worse their first year in the league. But sure, dismiss him based on that if you wish and get excited about a third round pick. Those guys are pretty much locks to pan out.

Aren't you always dismissing L'Veon Bell due to his poor ypc as a rookie?

 

[msommer]

It's definitely possible that I'm wrong on Stacy, wouldn't be the first time and I was definitely wrong about him last year at least.

But for me, NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator of talent. And it's not even close. Of course the NFL collectively whiffs sometimes, but given the stakes involved and the resources that they invest, I'm certainly not better equipped to make calls on prospects. IMO that goes for 99.99% of the fantasy community.

Don't see how you could take that stance when so much outside of talent factors into draft position. Colt Lyerla is at least a third round pick if its just based on talent, but he went undrafted. The same can be said for Crowell. Teams assess risk based on a lot of factors we have no clue about. Once on a team, talent will rise and draft position doesn't matter.

I wouldn't discount draft slot. You can certainly found gems in lower round draft. But the lower the picks, the higher the bust rate. I won't go as far as saying NFL draft slot is the strongest indicator, but it is definitely one of the important factor of your evaluation.

As far as Stacy is concerned, he is too risky a pick for me. For dynasty, I'd rather have Tre Mason, because he is the better talent. For redraft, I probably won't spend any pick higher than a 6th round for you.

I don't get how people can say this. Based on what? What Mason did in Auburn vs. Stacy in Vanderbilt? Now we've seen Stacy play in the NFL. If Stacy was thrown back in the draft pool this year, you think he'd have slipped to the third round? No way. At this point, all signs indicate Stacy is the better talent. It would be prudent to wait until Mason get to play in the NFL to make a judgment, but 10 times out of 10, I'm going to bet on the guy who has already shown NFL starter ability over a 3rd+ round pick and 8 or 9 out of 10 times I'll be right.

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

Haha, so I guess we are just glossing over situation in order to jump to whatever conclusion suits us? The Rams were the 29th ranked passing attack last year. Actually, they drop to 31st if you remove the first four games in which Stacy didn't play. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense every week. Also, I believe Forte, McFadden, and LT put up 3.9 ypc or worse their first year in the league. But sure, dismiss him based on that if you wish and get excited about a third round pick. Those guys are pretty much locks to pan out.

He's not a freakish talent like LT or DMC and he's not a great receiver like Forte. I'm not dismissing Stacy but the Rams didn't spend a 3rd on a RB without some concern about him. He may be able to keep the starting job and be a good fantasy back, but the Rams drafting Mason is a bad sign for him that you can't ignore.

The Rams wanted something more than Benny Cunningham and Isaiah Pead could deliver. Does that men RBBC? Maybe

 

[unckeyherb]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

 

[Tango]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

Yeah, if you're a Stacy dynasty owner the result of the draft is pretty clear:

Good news: You know who to grab as the handcuff instead of guessing from a bunch of guys

Bad news: You'll have to pay more than you might want to get the handcuff

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

Stacy was RB12 in PPG from week 5 on last year. And regardless of anyone's individual thoughts on Stacy vs Mason, Mason vs Pead and Richardson is another matter entirely -- Stacy almost certainly faces stiffer competition for carries in 2014 than he did in 2013. His touches per games are pretty likely to go down, maybe significantly. How much of an increase in efficiency are you projecting here if you have him finishing higher in 2014?

 

[msommer]

There are a number of ways unckeyherb could be right

1) A healthy Sam Bradford playing as his first games in 2013 should mean fewer defenders in the box

2) The addition of Greg Robinson adds to the efficiency of the run

3) More carries overall to the RBs

4) A combination of all of the above

In one of my leagues (PPR) Zac Stacy scored about 80% of RB10. He barely played 25% of the season (4 rushing yards games 1 through 4)

It is also possible that

1) A healthy Sam Bradford means more passing

2) Greg Robinson is such a liability in the pass game that he plays sparingly

3) All of the extra carries goes to the unproven rookie

4) A combination of all of the above (although 1 and 3 are contradictory)

We're moving into territory though

 

[BuzzCagney]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

Yeah, if you're a Stacy dynasty owner the result of the draft is pretty clear:

Good news: You know who to grab as the handcuff instead of guessing from a bunch of guys

Bad news: You'll have to pay more than you might want to get the handcuff

Maybe Benny Cunningham is the handcuff.

 

[False Start]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

He is going to get 20 carries, says who?

 

[FF Ninja]

Yep, we've seen him and he's nothing special - 3.9 YPC and 5.4 YPR. Those numbers are nearly identical to Rodney Thomas' rookie year before he was replaced by Eddie George.

It sure looks like the Rams made a judgement on him when they decided to spend a 3rd round pick on another RB.

Haha, so I guess we are just glossing over situation in order to jump to whatever conclusion suits us? The Rams were the 29th ranked passing attack last year. Actually, they drop to 31st if you remove the first four games in which Stacy didn't play. The guy was running into the teeth of the defense every week. Also, I believe Forte, McFadden, and LT put up 3.9 ypc or worse their first year in the league. But sure, dismiss him based on that if you wish and get excited about a third round pick. Those guys are pretty much locks to pan out.

Aren't you always dismissing L'Veon Bell due to his poor ypc as a rookie?

No, not at all. I think I've stated multiple times in the Bell thread that I'm really on the fence with him next year, could see his season going either way, but his ADP makes him a no go. I've stated that I'm wary of Bell due to the ypc and I also think Blount is pretty good. I have a hard time taking a guy in the late first/early second with those factors going on. Stacy's offense and offensive line should be improving and all he's got for competition is a third round back who is smaller, can't pass block, and runs a 4.50 forty. I should check in on a Bell/Steelers thread to see what kind of improvements they made to the line, but I don't recall anything significant other than getting players back from injury. That'll be nice for sure, but Stacy just got the top tackle in the draft. And who do you think poses more of a threat to goal line touches? Blount or Mason? Who do you think has a higher bust risk? A 4-year vet with a 4.7 ypc average or a third round rookie? And Stacy can be had almost a round later than Bell.

So I think ypc should be a factor when analyzing a player, but I don't plan to blindly dismiss a guy based on that alone. Situation must be dissected when looking at ypc. Was the passing offense even a threat? How did the line block? Was the guy used from all down and distances or primarily 1st and 10? And I'm not talking about Stacy or Bell right now, but every player. I don't know if you watched Mathews last year, but his usage in the first half of the season was maddening. He'd get the ball just about every 1st and 10 and rush right up the gut. Nothing outside the tackles. And his ypc suffered from it. 66% of his runs were on 1st down as compared to 57% for Stacy and 51% for Bell. So I do value ypc, but only when put in context. CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. When your QB is Kellen Clemens and your top wideout is Austin with 40/418, you probably have a little more attention from the defense than most RBs.

 

[cstu]

CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

This is what I believe - Stacy is good, not special. I was impressed by him last year but I saw nothing that made me think "Wow, Stacy is going to be a great back for many years to come". Then the Rams decide to spend a valuable 3rd round pick on another RB (who is over two years younger). It's hard for me to imagine Mason being drafted solely as a backup. I'm not saying that Mason will replace Stacy, but you have to be purposely oblivious not to see the possible outcome here. Again, had Stacy been extremely impressive last year I wouldn't be saying this, but had he been the Rams likely wouldn't have drafted Mason.

 

[FF Ninja]

CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

This is what I believe - Stacy is good, not special. I was impressed by him last year but I saw nothing that made me think "Wow, Stacy is going to be a great back for many years to come". Then the Rams decide to spend a valuable 3rd round pick on another RB (who is over two years younger). It's hard for me to imagine Mason being drafted solely as a backup. I'm not saying that Mason will replace Stacy, but you have to be purposely oblivious not to see the possible outcome here. Again, had Stacy been extremely impressive last year I wouldn't be saying this, but had he been the Rams likely wouldn't have drafted Mason.

Sure, I see the possible outcome of Mason one day taking over the job, but what probability do you assign it? Do you know the bust rate for RBs selected with those valuable 3rd round draft picks? I'm trying to recall recent Jeff Fisher draft picks in the first three... CJ - 1st round, Henry - 2nd round, White - 3rd round, Pead - 2nd round. Only two of those guys are still in the NFL and one of them seems headed out. I give Mason a 10% chance of receiving more carries than Stacy in 2015 and a 50% chance of still being in the NFL in 5 years, which is probably generous for a 3rd round draft pick.

If Stacy was magically entered back into the draft this year, where do you think he would've gone? I would max bet that he'd go before Mason.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

This is what I believe - Stacy is good, not special. I was impressed by him last year but I saw nothing that made me think "Wow, Stacy is going to be a great back for many years to come". Then the Rams decide to spend a valuable 3rd round pick on another RB (who is over two years younger). It's hard for me to imagine Mason being drafted solely as a backup. I'm not saying that Mason will replace Stacy, but you have to be purposely oblivious not to see the possible outcome here. Again, had Stacy been extremely impressive last year I wouldn't be saying this, but had he been the Rams likely wouldn't have drafted Mason.

Sure, I see the possible outcome of Mason one day taking over the job, but what probability do you assign it? Do you know the bust rate for RBs selected with those valuable 3rd round draft picks? I'm trying to recall recent Jeff Fisher draft picks in the first three... CJ - 1st round, Henry - 2nd round, White - 3rd round, Pead - 2nd round. Only two of those guys are still in the NFL and one of them seems headed out. I give Mason a 10% chance of receiving more carries than Stacy in 2015 and a 50% chance of still being in the NFL in 5 years, which is probably generous for a 3rd round draft pick.

If Stacy was magically entered back into the draft this year, where do you think he would've gone? I would max bet that he'd go before Mason.

I don't know how you can max bet that he would go ahead of Mason. I don't think there are many (and probably no one) in the NFL that would have given up a 3rd round pick for Stacy.

Stacy is what he is. A below average NFL rb that teams are never satisfied with and will draft guys to time share or with hopes of being better than what they currently have. I honestly think there would be a lot of NFL GM's that would have Mason rated higher than Stacy.

 

[cstu]

CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

This is what I believe - Stacy is good, not special. I was impressed by him last year but I saw nothing that made me think "Wow, Stacy is going to be a great back for many years to come". Then the Rams decide to spend a valuable 3rd round pick on another RB (who is over two years younger). It's hard for me to imagine Mason being drafted solely as a backup. I'm not saying that Mason will replace Stacy, but you have to be purposely oblivious not to see the possible outcome here. Again, had Stacy been extremely impressive last year I wouldn't be saying this, but had he been the Rams likely wouldn't have drafted Mason.

Sure, I see the possible outcome of Mason one day taking over the job, but what probability do you assign it? Do you know the bust rate for RBs selected with those valuable 3rd round draft picks? I'm trying to recall recent Jeff Fisher draft picks in the first three... CJ - 1st round, Henry - 2nd round, White - 3rd round, Pead - 2nd round. Only two of those guys are still in the NFL and one of them seems headed out. I give Mason a 10% chance of receiving more carries than Stacy in 2015 and a 50% chance of still being in the NFL in 5 years, which is probably generous for a 3rd round draft pick.

If Stacy was magically entered back into the draft this year, where do you think he would've gone? I would max bet that he'd go before Mason.

The odds that a big RB (over 210) will be a 5 year starter is 4% for those picked 115-187 (Stacy was picked #160) and 7.9% for those picked 73-114 (Mason was picked #75).

• Only two of the 92 large running backs selected after the 114th pick ended up as a five-year starter (I believe these are Terrell Davis and Michael Turner).

The odds are against either Stacy or Mason being 5 year starters, but based on draft position Mason's odds are double Stacy's.

Mason's odds of actually being in the league 5 years is 55% and Stacy's odds are 30%.

Link

 

[Biabreakable]

1993-2010 by draft class from PFR AV data

65 RB had 36 AV or more

29 1st round
12 2nd round
9 3rd round
6 4th round
3 5th round
3 6th round
2 7th round
1 UDFA

I may have missed a UDFA or two because they are not listed by draft (they were not drafted).

Round 3 players who qualified-

3 74 95RB Curtis Martin 101
3 66 97RB Tiki Barber 99
3 76 98RB Ahman Green 81
3 91 02RB Brian Westbrook 69
3 65 05Rb Frank Gore 74
3 71 97RB Duce Staley 52
3 73 08RB Jamaal Charles 50
3 78 93RB Terry Kirby 48
3 80 01RB Kevan Barlow 36


Round 5 players who qualified-

5 154 04RB Michael Turner 54
5 149 94RB Dorsey Levens 54
5 120 93RB Adrian Murrell 37

Zac Stacy's AV so far is 7

 

[unckeyherb]

Feel pretty confidant that Stacy will be a top ten RB at the end of the year. Do I care that his production is based on a volume of carries? I do not. While it's not prevelant that it happens much any more, there was a point that heavy workload mattered. He's going to get 20+ carries a game, he's a tough runner and he's got a nose for the EZ. That's good enough for me.

He is going to get 20 carries, says who?

No need to be a Richard, he averaged 20.8 carries per game last year. Not a crazy jump to expect similar numbers, mason or not.

 

[FF Ninja]

CTSU wants to dismiss Stacy despite being on one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

This is what I believe - Stacy is good, not special. I was impressed by him last year but I saw nothing that made me think "Wow, Stacy is going to be a great back for many years to come". Then the Rams decide to spend a valuable 3rd round pick on another RB (who is over two years younger). It's hard for me to imagine Mason being drafted solely as a backup. I'm not saying that Mason will replace Stacy, but you have to be purposely oblivious not to see the possible outcome here. Again, had Stacy been extremely impressive last year I wouldn't be saying this, but had he been the Rams likely wouldn't have drafted Mason.

Sure, I see the possible outcome of Mason one day taking over the job, but what probability do you assign it? Do you know the bust rate for RBs selected with those valuable 3rd round draft picks? I'm trying to recall recent Jeff Fisher draft picks in the first three... CJ - 1st round, Henry - 2nd round, White - 3rd round, Pead - 2nd round. Only two of those guys are still in the NFL and one of them seems headed out. I give Mason a 10% chance of receiving more carries than Stacy in 2015 and a 50% chance of still being in the NFL in 5 years, which is probably generous for a 3rd round draft pick.

If Stacy was magically entered back into the draft this year, where do you think he would've gone? I would max bet that he'd go before Mason.

I don't know how you can max bet that he would go ahead of Mason. I don't think there are many (and probably no one) in the NFL that would have given up a 3rd round pick for Stacy.

Stacy is what he is. A below average NFL rb that teams are never satisfied with and will draft guys to time share or with hopes of being better than what they currently have. I honestly think there would be a lot of NFL GM's that would have Mason rated higher than Stacy.

It's easy. I'd max bet it because he's got a season of successful NFL football under his belt. He did a lot better than higher paid NFL RBs. You don't think Cincy would've paid a third last year for him rather than let BJGE plot away at an inflated price? We don't know that he's below average, although you are free to assume so if you want, but he's good enough to play significant downs in the NFL and a 2nd/3rd round contract is dirt cheap compared to average RBs such as Shonn Greene. So all you have to do is ask yourself, would Tennessee rather pay Shonn Greene $3mil per year or Stacy $500k/year or whatever a 2nd/3rd round guy gets and that will answer your question on whether he's worth the pick.

Every draft pick is a gamble. A known quantity is worth a lot. It's kind of like the question someone posed about if you'd take a guy guaranteed to finish RB4 with the 1.01 pick.

The odds are against either Stacy or Mason being 5 year starters, but based on draft position Mason's odds are double Stacy's.
Mason's odds of actually being in the league 5 years is 55% and Stacy's odds are 30%.

Link

First, I didn't say anything about starter. Second, I think you meant to say Stacy's odds were 30%. After one successful season in the NFL, I'm sure the odds increase quite a bit.

 

[msommer]

To tack onto FFNinja, what are the odds for being a five year starter for a 5th rund back that has already been a starter one year.

And what are the odds for a 3rd round pick for being a five year starter if the first year is spent as a non starter (this is not mean to be predictive but it is a scenario that is likely, RBBC in 2014 in STL)

 

[cstu]

First, I didn't say anything about starter. Second, I think you meant to say Stacy's odds were 30%. After one successful season in the NFL, I'm sure the odds increase quite a bit.

That's what I disagree with - according to PFF he was 20th out of 31 RB in YPC with 50% of their teams snaps running the ball.

Receiving he was 26th out 31 and he had the 2nd lowest YPR.

 

[cstu]

To tack onto FFNinja, what are the odds for being a five year starter for a 5th rund back that has already been a starter one year.

And what are the odds for a 3rd round pick for being a five year starter if the first year is spent as a non starter (this is not mean to be predictive but it is a scenario that is likely, RBBC in 2014 in STL)

• Only two of the 92 large running backs selected after the 114th pick ended up as a five-year starter (I believe these are Terrell Davis and Michael Turner).

These numbers include changing teams and don't factor in whether they were the starter or on the bench their rookie year.

It's pretty clear the odds of Stacy being a long-term starter in the NFL are very low.

 

[FF Ninja]

First, I didn't say anything about starter. Second, I think you meant to say Stacy's odds were 30%. After one successful season in the NFL, I'm sure the odds increase quite a bit.

That's what I disagree with - according to PFF he was 20th out of 31 RB with 50% of their teams snaps running the ball.

Receiving he was 26th out 31 and he had the 2nd lowest YPR.

That's interesting, but PFF also said "St. Louis’ offensive line graded out as the eighth worst run-blocking unit in the NFL last season."

Then again, I got that out of a very anti-Stacy article from them.