GregR
Footballguy
Probably more useful in a 2 TE league, though thought this could still be of some interest to anyone who was going to gamble on Sudfeld in a normal league. I think there's some synergy in the situations of Sudfeld and Heath Miller as a potential TE by committee you can get late.
First their situations as of today. Sudfeld there were reports he was a lock to be the #1 TE if Gronk is out. While Brady has not turned every starting TE into a stud, the potential for value there is still obvious if not a lock. Sudfeld was benched after a fumble in the 3rd preseason game, as was everyone else who fumbled. Also worth noting that Mortenson reported the Pats have contacted other teams to see about available tight ends. While one could read that as a lack of confidence in Sudfeld, until I hear otherwise I tend to think it is as much an indication Gronk is going to end up on PUP.
Heath Miller meanwhile is coming back from torn ACL, MCL and PCL. Last year he was TE5 in 1.0 PPR going by points per game, though that's probably an upper end for him even without recovering from the injury. In the last week, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review said he's likely to miss the first month of the season, and LaCanfora (per "league source) that Miller is likely to start practicing soon and "could" return to game action early in the season.
So with the context set, the thought is, Sudfeld's value is likely to be at a peak early in the season when Gronkowski is more likely to be out, and eventually tail off. If Gronkowski does go on PUP, and the Patriots don't acquire someone obviously better, that gives you at least six games of Sudfeld as a starter. When Gronk comes back, there's still a chance Sudfeld could have Hernandez level production, but frankly I am not banking on that. I'd rather plan as if he won't be worth a roster spot in non-dynasty, and end up pleasantly surprised.
Miller meanwhile is in the opposite boat. Early in the season he's probably not playing. His return might fall in the 4-6 week range. And it might take some time over the course of the season for him to gain confidence in his knee and get closer to his old form.
So about the time that Sudfeld's fantasy value is most likely to take a hit, Miller might be starting to show up. I doubt the combo will give you elite numbers, and maybe not even get you top 12 numbers to where they'd be worth having as a TE1. But some people are already taking a gamble on Sudfeld, and if you are, Miller can be had pretty cheaply. Depending on roster size perhaps even left on waivers and picked up a few weeks before he'll get back into the lineup.
If your league uses few TEs this probably isn't viable. But in a large or 2 TE league, or mine where it's 2 TE plus an additional TE/WR flex, and TE get more PPR than other positions, I'm giving it a go over other TEs who were available in the same range like Housler, Fleener, etc. We also have a lot of bench spots which makes it more viable.
First their situations as of today. Sudfeld there were reports he was a lock to be the #1 TE if Gronk is out. While Brady has not turned every starting TE into a stud, the potential for value there is still obvious if not a lock. Sudfeld was benched after a fumble in the 3rd preseason game, as was everyone else who fumbled. Also worth noting that Mortenson reported the Pats have contacted other teams to see about available tight ends. While one could read that as a lack of confidence in Sudfeld, until I hear otherwise I tend to think it is as much an indication Gronk is going to end up on PUP.
Heath Miller meanwhile is coming back from torn ACL, MCL and PCL. Last year he was TE5 in 1.0 PPR going by points per game, though that's probably an upper end for him even without recovering from the injury. In the last week, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review said he's likely to miss the first month of the season, and LaCanfora (per "league source) that Miller is likely to start practicing soon and "could" return to game action early in the season.
So with the context set, the thought is, Sudfeld's value is likely to be at a peak early in the season when Gronkowski is more likely to be out, and eventually tail off. If Gronkowski does go on PUP, and the Patriots don't acquire someone obviously better, that gives you at least six games of Sudfeld as a starter. When Gronk comes back, there's still a chance Sudfeld could have Hernandez level production, but frankly I am not banking on that. I'd rather plan as if he won't be worth a roster spot in non-dynasty, and end up pleasantly surprised.
Miller meanwhile is in the opposite boat. Early in the season he's probably not playing. His return might fall in the 4-6 week range. And it might take some time over the course of the season for him to gain confidence in his knee and get closer to his old form.
So about the time that Sudfeld's fantasy value is most likely to take a hit, Miller might be starting to show up. I doubt the combo will give you elite numbers, and maybe not even get you top 12 numbers to where they'd be worth having as a TE1. But some people are already taking a gamble on Sudfeld, and if you are, Miller can be had pretty cheaply. Depending on roster size perhaps even left on waivers and picked up a few weeks before he'll get back into the lineup.
If your league uses few TEs this probably isn't viable. But in a large or 2 TE league, or mine where it's 2 TE plus an additional TE/WR flex, and TE get more PPR than other positions, I'm giving it a go over other TEs who were available in the same range like Housler, Fleener, etc. We also have a lot of bench spots which makes it more viable.
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