ZWK's 2021 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

RBs break relatively cleanly into tiers that match draft capital.

First
24    Najee Harris    PIT
25    Travis Etienne    JAX
35    Javonte Williams    DEN

This was the consensus order pre-draft, with picks close to these. My ratings formula had them Etienne-Williams-Harris but I would've drafted them Etienne-Harris-Williams given the consensus. Draft capital leaves that order intact, but Harris goes to the best situation with a team that likes to have a workhorse & has little competition. Williams is likely to split the load with Gordon this year but has a good shot to be the guy in 2022, Etienne is at risk of having to share the backfield with Robinson for the next 3 years. Optimistic scenarios for Etienne are if he's so good that it doesn't matter if the next guy is a solid Chester Taylor type, or if he does so much in the passing game that he has tons of fantasy value even if a Mark Ingram type gets a bunch of snaps, or if Robinson disappears like Steve Slaton. Harris vs. Etienne is a close call for me at this point, with Williams the clear #3. (Pre-draft, I valued Harris closer to Williams.) I think I'll go with consensus & rank them in line with draft order, but if I was in position to take Harris I'd be looking to trade down for Etienne plus.

Second
88    Trey Sermon    SF
107    Michael Carter    NYJ

Tiny tier 2. I had these two on the same tier pre-draft ("Guys who have a decent chance"), as my RB 6 & 8, and their rd3-4 draft capital roughly matches that. Consensus rankings & other analytical models often had them around here too, in the RB4-6 range. Carter was usually rated higher pre-draft but it's Sermon who gets drafted 19 picks sooner. Sermon goes into a pretty wide open backfield (especially long-term) with Mostert, Wilson, Gallman, and Elijah Mitchell. Carter goes into an even more wide open backfield with last year's Jets 4th rounder Lamical Perine, plus Ty Johnson, Josh Adams, and whatever's left of Tevin Coleman. Carter has a better shot at carving out a decent committee role like Gio Bernard, while Sermon is more boom-or-bust with a better shot at a workhorse role. I think I lean Sermon.

Third
119    Kene Nwangwu    MIN
120    Rhamondre Stevenson    NE
126    Chuba Hubbard    CAR
150    Kenny Gainwell    PHI
194    Elijah Mitchell    SF

I had Mitchell & Gainwell rated the highest pre-draft, with the other 3 a couple tiers back as "guys I can't rule out." Consensus was highest on Gainwell & lowest on Nwangwu. Hubbard & Nwangwu go to pure backup roles behind CMC & Cook, with Nwangwu facing more competition even for that role. The NE backfield is a big competition which is likely to end up as a committee, although Stevenson has some LeGarrette Blount & some Rex Burkhead to his skillset. Philly likes to throw to its RBs, which is good for Gainwell, but the fact he fell so far is a bad sign for his ceiling. SF is a great landing spot for Mitchell, as Shanahan is willing to give a big role to late round / UDFA RBs, and Mitchell's speed & tackle-breaking ability match what they like, so I love him for a 6th rounder. "For a 6th rounder" means that he's in the mix with these 4th-5th rounders. Off-the-cuff ranking: Gainwell-Stevenson-Mitchell-Hubbard-Nwangwu.

Fourth
196    Gary Brightwell    NYG
198    Larry Rountree III    LAC
202    Chris Evans    CIN
217    Khalil Herbert    CHI
233    Jake Funk    LAR
244    Gerrid Doaks    MIA
256    Kylin Hill    GB
257    Jermar Jefferson    DET

Herbert is the guy in this group that I liked the most pre-draft, and Funk, Hill, and Evans at least made my "can't rule out" tier. Consensus was highest on Herbert, followed by the Jefferson/Hill/Evans trio. Doaks goes to a relatively wide-open backfield in MIA, Rountree goes to a Chargers backfield where a relatively large committee role is up-for-grabs, and the others are competing for backup roles (with Hill & Funk facing pretty tough competition even for that). I think I'd take Herbert & Evans first based on talent and opportunity-to-be-a-handcuff, then Doaks & Rountree for opportunity (with Doaks ahead because he's at least big with a good vertical and not too far behind my last tier of listed RBs), and the others only if rosters are big (let's call it Funk, Hill, Jefferson, Brightwell).

If you call Demetric Felton a RB he'd be in here too, at pick 211 to Cleveland. As a RB I guess he's a Kareem Hunt backup who offers much less in the running game but a similar ability to be split out wide. He's more likely than any of the others to achieve at least borderline fantasy relevance, but with a lower ceiling. So I guess I'd slot him in between Doaks & Rountree.

UDFA
Jaret Patterson WAS
Trey Ragas LV
Javian Hawkins ATL
Pooka Williams CIN
Brenden Knox DAL
and some others

 

[ZWK]

Post-draft tight end rankings

4    Kyle Pitts    ATL



55    Pat Freiermuth    PIT

83    Tommy Tremble    CAR
81    Hunter Long    MIA

127    Kylen Granson    IND
147    Brevin Jordan    HOU
141    Jacob Harris    LAR *
97    Tre' McKitty    LAC
168    Zach Davidson    MIN
124    John Bates    WAS

162    Noah Gray    KC
145    Luke Farrell    JAX
udfa    Kenny Yeboah    NYJ
udfa    Briley Moore    TEN
udfa    Quintin Morris    BUF

Pitts, Freiermuth, Tremble, and Long all got drafted about where they were expected to go, just a touch late for Freiermuth & a touch early for Tremble & Long.

Pitts is a different kind of player than most guys with a "TE" next to their name.

The other 3 are more standard TEs. Solid guys, not tons of upside. Freiermuth is generally the most highly regarded, and is worth about as much as Kmet was last year (with Eric Ebron playing the role of old Jimmy Graham). Tremble has the best athleticism of the bunch but the least college production; he was used more as a blocker in college but maybe has a bit of Kittlesque upside. He also has a good opportunity to win the lead TE role in CAR. Long had the best production of the 3, and the highest overall rating, according to my formula. His opportunity is more limited unless Gesicki heads elsewhere when his contract runs out.

Everyone in the next tier except for Brevin Jordan was drafted significantly earlier than expected. Jordan was productive at Miami but fell from the presumptive TE3 early in the offseason to the Long/Tremble tier after his lousy pro day, and then fell further in the draft. Granson & Davidson are two of the small school guys whose athleticism+production profiles I liked. Jacob Harris would've been in there with Granson & Davidson if I'd been thinking of him as a TE, but I had him as a WR since that's what he played in college and his 26.0 BMI is thin even for a WR; he's not much thinner than Dan Arnold so  I guess there's hope for him if he tries to transition to TE. McKitty & Bates are in this tier in deference to draft capital as neither had a very good profile. McKitty has better draft capital & better opportunity, and is generally seen as more of a receiving TE while Bates is an in-line guy who could be a blocker or a balanced TE. For landing spots, IND, HOU, and LAC have good opportunity while LAR, MIN, and WAS are mediocre.

In the next tier are the last two drafted TEs (none were drafted over the last 90 picks), plus 3 UDFAs whose profiles I liked pre-draft. Gray is like McKitty with worse draft capital, though at least Gray had a fast 40 (4.62). Farrell has the most blocking-heavy profile of the drafted TEs, including a 4.83 40. JAX, NYJ, TEN, & BUF all have good immediate opportunity at TE, and KC could be a good landing spot long-term if Kelce ever runs out of steam. This tier probably isn't worth rostering even in most TE premium leagues.

 

[ZWK]

Every quarterback drafted:

1    Trevor Lawrence    JAX
2    Zach Wilson    NYJ
3    Trey Lance    SF
11    Justin Fields    CHI
15    Mac Jones    NE
64    Kyle Trask    TB
66    Kellen Mond    MIN
67    Davis Mills    HOU
133    Ian Book    NO
218    Sam Ehlinger    IND

In terms of likelihood of succeeding as an NFL quarterback, I rank them in the same order they were drafted (with tier gaps after Lawrence, Jones, Mills, and Book). Partly this is because I put a lot of weight on NFL draft order, and partly it's because Trask>Mond>Mills is how I rated those three.

For fantasy value, QB rushing matters a lot, which is good for Lance, Fields, Mond, and (if you go that deep) Book. In 1 QB leagues upside is what matters, so the difference between a high-end producer and a solid starter (like Stafford or Cousins) matters a lot more than the difference between a solid starter and a guy who can't hold down a starting job. In superflex, guys like Stafford & Cousins have substantial value.

In most 1 QB leagues, roster space is at a premium so it's hard to find room to hang on to QB prospects like Garoppolo or Trask for multiple years. So in a typical 1 QB fantasy league, I'd rank the QBs:

Lawrence
Lance
Fields

Wilson

Jones

Mills

Mond
Trask
Book

Where Mills gets the edge over Mond & Trask based on the urgency consideration. He's likely to be competing for a job this year, so we can see what he's got and keep him or move on based on that. Whereas Mond, Trask, and Book are likely cut candidates this year just to free up roster space, without getting much chance to see what they can do.

With very large rosters or generous taxi squads, Mond & Trask would be on the same tier as Mills. If roster space is not an issue at all they'd be ahead of him.

In superflex or 2 QB leagues, Wilson is in the same tier as Lance & Fields, while Lawrence is on his own tier at the top. And Mond & Trask are on the same tier as Mills, and probably ahead of him, because in that format all three are probably worth a roster spot for a couple years as we wait to see if they develop & get a chance.

 

[Deamon]

Every quarterback drafted:

1    Trevor Lawrence    JAX
2    Zach Wilson    NYJ
3    Trey Lance    SF
11    Justin Fields    CHI
15    Mac Jones    NE
64    Kyle Trask    TB
66    Kellen Mond    MIN
67    Davis Mills    HOU
133    Ian Book    NO
218    Sam Ehlinger    IND

Damn, only 2 QB'S drafted after round 3?  That has to be a record.

 

[Tau837]

McKitty has better draft capital & better opportunity, and is generally seen as more of a receiving TE

The general consensus from Chargers viewpoint is that McKitty was drafted to be more of an inline blocking TE in 2021, with Cook and Parham clearly receiving TEs ahead of him who don't block particularly well. It is also expected with the team brining in HC Staley from the Rams and OC Lombardi from the Saints that the team will drastically increase its 2 TE sets, which is a reason the team was motivated to draft a TE early.

Cook is a UFA after 2021, so possible scenarios after that would be:

1. Cook plays well enough in 2021 that the team brings him back as TE1 in a receiving role for another season
   
2. Parham is TE1 in a receiving role and McKitty is TE2 in a more balanced role
   
3. McKitty impresses and leapfrogs Parham to become TE1 in a balanced role with Parham as TE2 in a receiving role
   
4. Another unknown TE is brought into the mix, which could mean anything
   

Given that it typically takes time for TEs to adjust to the NFL and become productive, I'm skeptical that McKitty has much of a shot at #3 in my list. As you indicted, he was seemingly overdrafted. Odds are his ceiling is as a long term TE2 who does a lot of blocking.

I realize that one would have to play in the deepest of leagues for McKitty to matter much.

 

[Tau837]

Thanks for doing these, @ZWK. I always look forward to updates in this thread.

 

[barackdhouse]

Thanks for doing these, @ZWK. I always look forward to updates in this thread.

Same here. Thanks for sharing as always.

 

[Denver724]

Thanks for the info. Well done. Looking forward to the WR breakdown. 

 

[ZWK]

There are lots of WRs, so the easiest way to start this is to just list off which ones I like higher or lower than their draft position.

5    Ja'Marr Chase    CIN - higher
6    Jaylen Waddle    MIA - lower
10    DeVonta Smith    PHI - lower
20    Kadarius Toney    NYG - lower
27    Rashod Bateman    BAL - similar
34    Elijah Moore    NYJ - similar
49    Rondale Moore    ARI - similar
56    D'Wayne Eskridge    SEA - lower
57    Chatarius Atwell    LAR - lower
59    Terrace Marshall Jr.    CAR - higher
77    Josh Palmer    LAC - lower
82    Dyami Brown    WAS - higher
85    Amari Rodgers    GB - similar?
89    Nico Collins    HOU - slightly lower
91    Anthony Schwartz    CLE - lower
109    Dez Fitzpatrick    TEN - lower
112    Amon-Ra St. Brown    DET - similar
129    Jaelon Darden    TB - higher
131    Tylan Wallace    BAL - higher
157    Ihmir Smith-Marsette    MIN - lower
179    Simi Fehoko    DAL - higher
181    Cornell Powell    KC - higher
[...]
229    Mike Strachan    IND - higher

Most of these match what my WR formula says. Hayden Winks's WR model is also good and broadly similar.

Chase is amazing. Waddle & Smith aren't bad prospects but I wouldn't have them as early 1sts, and bigger WRs generally have higher upside. Toney actually came out pretty good by my formula, but other analytics folks who crunched the numbers slightly differently don't like his profile and his Reception Perception numbers (how reliably he gets open) are bad. Bateman is pretty good by my numbers, and higher in other analytics folks' numbers, but Baltimore is not a great landing spot since they have more QB runs and fewer QB passes than most teams (last in the NFL in pass attempts each of the past 2 seasons, and their offense has been good enough so that they might keep doing what they've been doing).

Elijah Moore has a great profile except for being small. Rondale Moore more mixed, but Arizona is a nice landing spot for his skillset (quick passes for RAC). Eskridge & Atwell are smaller speedy guys who come out okay in my formula, but again that profile has less fantasy value and also they were both reaches relative to conventional value. Atwell is also super tiny. Marshall rated out great by my formula and is one of the few good big WRs in this class; apparently he fell due to injuries, and fantasy owners should be more willing to take on injury risk than NFL owners; CAR is a below average landing spot since they already have Moore.

Dyami Brown was the only rd3 WR who I actively liked pre-draft. Amari Rodgers at least maybe gets a chance to be Aaron Rodgers's #2 WR. Nico Collins had a not-terrible profile, and has tons of opportunity in Houston. Palmer seems like a big reach. Schwartz has elite track speed but that is unlikely to translate into much NFL value.

In round 4, Jaelon Darden & Tylan Wallace are the two guys who I actively liked pre-draft, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is the guy who has a not-terrible profile (better in Winks's model than in mine, and also generally seen as a day 2 guy by draftniks) and landed in a spot with opportunity. The Titans traded up for Dez Fitzpatrick for some reason.

In round 5, Fehoko's profile has some promising glimmers with size, athleticism, and a few games of production this year. Cornell Powell is a Kansas City Chief. I don't see much to like about Smith-Marsette other than his opportunity to be the Vikings #3 WR, and the fact that he was drafted 30+ picks before everyone who I didn't list.

I didn't bother listing the round 6+ guys, except for one who I like. Michael Strachan has lots of signs of upside: size, speed, FCS production, 2020 opt-out.

Putting it all together, I get a ranking something like this:

5    Ja'Marr Chase    CIN

6    Jaylen Waddle    MIA
10    Devonta Smith    PHI

27    Rashod Bateman    BAL

34    Elijah Moore    NYJ
20    Kadarius Toney    NYG
49    Rondale Moore    ARI
59    Terrace Marshall Jr.    CAR

82    Dyami Brown    WAS

85    Amari Rodgers    GB
56    D'Wayne Eskridge    SEA
89    Nico Collins    HOU
57    Tutu Atwell    LAR
77    Josh Palmer    LAC
129    Jaelon Darden    TB
131    Tylan Wallace    BAL
112    Amon-Ra St. Brown    DET
91    Anthony Schwartz    CLE

179    Simi Fehoko    DAL
181    Cornell Powell    KC
109    Dez Fitzpatrick    TEN
229    Michael Strachan    IND
157    Ihmir Smith-Marsette    MIN

 

[ZWK]

Putting it all together into ppr rookie rankings (also available in spreadsheet format)

Pos    Player    Team    Pick
WR    Ja'Marr Chase    CIN    5
RB    Najee Harris    PIT    24
RB    Travis Etienne    JAX    25
TE    Kyle Pitts    ATL    4
RB    Javonte Williams    DEN    35

WR    Jaylen Waddle    MIA    6
WR    Devonta Smith    PHI    10

WR    Rashod Bateman    BAL    27
QB    Trevor Lawrence    JAX    1

WR    Elijah Moore    NYJ    34
WR    Kadarius Toney    NYG    20
WR    Rondale Moore    ARI    49
WR    Terrace Marshall Jr.    CAR    59

QB    Trey Lance    SF    3
QB    Justin Fields    CHI    11
RB    Trey Sermon    SF    88
RB    Michael Carter    NYJ    107
QB    Zach Wilson    NYJ    2
WR    Dyami Brown    WAS    82

RB    Kenneth Gainwell    PHI    150
WR    Amari Rodgers    GB    85
WR    D'Wayne Eskridge    SEA    56
QB    Mac Jones    NE    15
TE    Pat Freiermuth    PIT    55
RB    Rhamondre Stevenson    NE    120
WR    Nico Collins    HOU    89
RB    Elijah Mitchell    SF    194
RB    Chuba Hubbard    CAR    126
WR    Tutu Atwell    LAR    57
RB    Kene Nwangwu    MIN    119
WR    Josh Palmer    LAC    77
WR    Jaelon Darden    TB    129
WR    Tylan Wallace    BAL    131
WR    Amon-Ra St. Brown    DET    112
TE    Tommy Tremble    CAR    83
TE    Hunter Long    MIA    81
WR    Anthony Schwartz    CLE    91

TE    Kylen Granson    IND    127
TE    Brevin Jordan    HOU    147
TE    Sammis Reyes    WAS    n/a
TE/WR    Jacob Harris    LAR    141
QB    Davis Mills    HOU    67
RB    Khalil Herbert    CHI    217
RB    Chris Evans    CIN    202
RB    Gerrid Doaks    MIA    244
TE    Tre' McKitty    LAC    97
RB/WR    Demetric Felton    CLE    211
WR    Simi Fehoko    DAL    179
WR    Cornell Powell    KC    181
WR    Dez Fitzpatrick    TEN    109
TE    Zach Davidson    MIN    168
WR    Michael Strachan    IND    229
WR    Ihmir Smith-Marsette    MIN    157
RB    Larry Rountree III    LAC    198
QB    Kellen Mond    MIN    66
QB    Kyle Trask    TB    64

RB    Jake Funk    LAR    233
RB    Kylin Hill    GB    256
RB    Jermar Jefferson    DET    257
WR    Marquez Stevenson    BUF    203
WR    Jalen Camp    JAX    209
TE    John Bates    WAS    124
TE    Noah Gray    KC    162
RB    Gary Brightwell    NYG    196
WR    Frank Darby    ATL    187
WR    Shi Smith    CAR    204
WR    Seth Williams    DEN    219
QB    Ian Book    NO    133

 

[massraider]

Fourth
196    Gary Brightwell    NYG
198    Larry Rountree III    LAC
202    Chris Evans    CIN
217    Khalil Herbert    CHI
233    Jake Funk    LAR
244    Gerrid Doaks    MIA
256    Kylin Hill    GB
257    Jermar Jefferson    DET

My immediate reaction to this group is that whenever these guys are up in my rookie draft, I have Herbert and Evans in a tier by themselves.  

 

[ty247]

@ZWK Do the rankings take into account positional scarcity, expected career length, etc or are these rankings based on the players values per the model and how they individually grade out?

 

[ZWK]

@ZWK Do the rankings take into account positional scarcity, expected career length, etc or are these rankings based on the players values per the model and how they individually grade out?

My latest post is the order that I'd draft them in, in a typical ppr league, so it tries to take everything into account (including positional scarcity, expected career length, etc.).

 

[Soulfly3]

ngl, suprised to see etienne ahead of pitts @ZWK- just 1 spot, but still surprised.

 

[Ilov80s]

We saw a record low for RBs taken in rounds 1-3. Only four backs. Do we think that this is reflective of just an awful class or is it maybe the NFL starting to be wiser about running back value? Should we view Michael Carter as a 4th round pick or as the 5th RB taken? 

 

[Deamon]

We saw a record low for RBs taken in rounds 1-3. Only four backs. Do we think that this is reflective of just an awful class or is it maybe the NFL starting to be wiser about running back value? Should we view Michael Carter as a 4th round pick or as the 5th RB taken? 

Both.  RB position going to just get even more and more devalued as we go.  Class I'd say was Average.

 

[Ilov80s]

Both.  RB position going to just get even more and more devalued as we go.  Class I'd say was Average.

How does that impact us for dynasty you think?

 

[Deamon]

How does that impact us for dynasty you think?

I don't play dynasty so I'm no help there. I'm in a semi-dynasty keep 8 league tho.  

I would assume maybe WR's get a small bump in dynasty drafts tho?  You can probably find some 4th and 5th round (of NFL draft) rbs that will slip to round 2 of dynasty and rookie drafts and be great value.  Just a guess. 

 

[ZWK]

We saw a record low for RBs taken in rounds 1-3. Only four backs. Do we think that this is reflective of just an awful class or is it maybe the NFL starting to be wiser about running back value? Should we view Michael Carter as a 4th round pick or as the 5th RB taken? 

Both, but more the awful class (just look at last year). Also, the NFL isn't just starting to wise up about RB value - the amount of draft capital spent on RBs has been declining steadily for 50+ years.

The gradual decline in RB positional value means that RBs drafted in the 4th round now are probably about as good as RBs who were drafted in the 3rd round several years ago.

 

[Iceman03]

Both, but more the awful class (just look at last year). Also, the NFL isn't just starting to wise up about RB value - the amount of draft capital spent on RBs has been declining steadily for 50+ years.

The gradual decline in RB positional value means that RBs drafted in the 4th round now are probably about as good as RBs who were drafted in the 3rd round several years ago.

I disagree. Clearly NFL teams are still willing to use 1st rounders to get RB’s if they think there is scarcity. This is an awful class. Carter stands as much a chance of hitting as any historical 4th rounder. Which is to say, low. Someone else can waste 2nd round draft capital on him in my book.

 

[Ilov80s]

I am just still surprised that Gainwell, Carter and even Chuba weren't 3rd round picks. Though I suppose 3rd to 4th isn't that big of a difference. Becomes a bit random for when teams that want a RB are picking and who else slips to them at the other positions. 

 

[ZWK]

I disagree. Clearly NFL teams are still willing to use 1st rounders to get RB’s if they think there is scarcity. This is an awful class. Carter stands as much a chance of hitting as any historical 4th rounder. Which is to say, low. Someone else can waste 2nd round draft capital on him in my book.

The amount of draft capital spent on RBs keeps declining. The total fantasy value of RBs stays basically constant. That means that a given amount of draft capital buys a larger share of the pie than it used to.

Michael Carter at pick 107 accounted for about 6% of all the draft capital spent on RBs this year (according to the OTC chart). If this year had been on the trend line rather than being an unusually bad year, then it would've been 5% of the draft capital. In 2008-12, an RB drafted with pick 84 would've accounted for 5% of the draft capital spent on RBs. Which suggests that a RB taken with pick 107 this year should have about the same fantasy value as a RB taken with pick 84 in 2010.

 

[Iceman03]

The amount of draft capital spent on RBs keeps declining. The total fantasy value of RBs stays basically constant. That means that a given amount of draft capital buys a larger share of the pie than it used to.

Michael Carter at pick 107 accounted for about 6% of all the draft capital spent on RBs this year (according to the OTC chart). If this year had been on the trend line rather than being an unusually bad year, then it would've been 5% of the draft capital. In 2008-12, an RB drafted with pick 84 would've accounted for 5% of the draft capital spent on RBs. Which suggests that a RB taken with pick 107 this year should have about the same fantasy value as a RB taken with pick 84 in 2010.

List of 4th round backs since 2010:

Andre Brown, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell, Delone Carter, Roy Helu, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin, Jon Franklin, James White, Ka’Deem Carey, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Devonta Freeman, Andre Williams, Mike Davis, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen, Tyler Ervin, Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman, Samaje Perine, Tarik Cohen, Mark Walton, Chase Edmonds, Kalen Ballage, Ito Smith, Nyheim Hines, Tony Pollard

Top 3rd round backs since 2010: Demarco Murray, David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Tre Mason, Devin Singletary, Antonio Gibson, David Montgomery, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and James Conner

Quantify it how you want to if it comes down to the upside of Devante Freeman/Lamar Miller vs. the upside of an ARob in Bateman or a DK-lite in Marshall I know which direction I’m going. Juice is not worth the squeeze. Trey Sermon on the other hand.

FWIW, I have Carter 5th like you. I just break it up by tier and I have him graded out as Tier (round) 3. I don’t see any upside in reaching for him despite being modestly disappointed in this crop of WR/TE.

 

[Iceman03]

I also want to say that I have tremendous respect for your rankings and process. I know Carter graded out well for you. I’m not saying it’s arbitrary to attach pick 86 value to him I would just argue that the NFL hasn’t changed their opinion on 4th round RB even if it represents larger capital investment in RB at this point.
 

They’re throw aways and treated like throw aways. Even the best of them in Miller and Freeman we would sit on our hands every year expecting them to be replaced. Is what it is. 

 

[woodstock]

I also want to say that I have tremendous respect for your rankings and process. I know Carter graded out well for you. I’m not saying it’s arbitrary to attach pick 86 value to him I would just argue that the NFL hasn’t changed their opinion on 4th round RB even if it represents larger capital investment in RB at this point.

They’re throw aways and treated like throw aways. Even the best of them in Miller and Freeman we would sit on our hands every year expecting them to be replaced. Is what it is. 

Thanks for your perspective. What are your thoughts about Sermon, who you seemed to allude to as an exception? 

 

[ZWK]

List of 4th round backs since 2010:

Andre Brown, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell, Delone Carter, Roy Helu, Lamar Miller, Robert Turbin, Jon Franklin, James White, Ka’Deem Carey, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Devonta Freeman, Andre Williams, Mike Davis, Jeremy Langford, Javorius Allen, Tyler Ervin, Kenneth Dixon, Devontae Booker, Marlon Mack, Wayne Gallman, Samaje Perine, Tarik Cohen, Mark Walton, Chase Edmonds, Kalen Ballage, Ito Smith, Nyheim Hines, Tony Pollard

Top 3rd round backs since 2010: Demarco Murray, David Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Tre Mason, Devin Singletary, Antonio Gibson, David Montgomery, Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson and James Conner

Quantify it how you want to if it comes down to the upside of Devante Freeman/Lamar Miller vs. the upside of an ARob in Bateman or a DK-lite in Marshall I know which direction I’m going. Juice is not worth the squeeze. Trey Sermon on the other hand.

FWIW, I have Carter 5th like you. I just break it up by tier and I have him graded out as Tier (round) 3. I don’t see any upside in reaching for him despite being modestly disappointed in this crop of WR/TE.

Our rankings might not even be that far apart - you can see that I have Carter a tier or more behind Bateman & Marshall.

And part of why he's as high as he is is that I'm not excited about many of the players who were drafted in the 50-120 range. I like Marshall, I like Dyami Brown (relative to his draft pick, but he only went 25 picks ahead of Carter), not much after that. Maybe I'm being too harsh on Eskridge? Do you actually have 24+ players ahead of Carter or are you just assigning him a round 3 grade?

Maybe one difference is that I try to look at things more as a continuous decline in value from one pick to the next, rather than grouping players by round. 4th rounders Devonta Freeman & Nyheim Hines were actually drafted earlier than 3rd rounder James Conner. Carter was an early 4th round pick; here are the guys who went within 10 picks of him:

97    Lamar Miller    2012
102    Alexander Mattison    2019
103    Devonta Freeman    2014
104    Nyheim Hines    2018
105    Roy Helu    2011
105    James Conner    2017
106    Robert Turbin    2012
106    Jeremy Langford    2015
107    Michael Carter    2021
112    Joe McKnight    2010
112    Mark Walton    2018
112    Bryce Love    2019
112    Joshua Kelley    2020
113    Andre Williams    2014
113    Justice Hill    2019
114    Samaje Perine    2017
115    Kendall Hunter    2011
117    Ka'Deem Carey    2014

Not such a bad list, and this is without adjusting for draft trends. (A big enough adjustment to bring David Johnson (2015 pick 86) into the list of comparable draft investments would make it stronger.)

 

[Iceman03]

Thanks for your perspective. What are your thoughts about Sermon, who you seemed to allude to as an exception? 

I felt better about him before the Elijah Mitchell pick. Shanahan doesn’t care and will replace RB’s on a whim. That said, Sermon has a RAS comparable to Miles Sanders just without the extra gear in the 40. He was an outlier statistically but I liked what he brought to the table as an athlete and that seemed to be reflected in what the film grinders thought and draft capital. I’m trying to talk myself into him late 1 in standard leagues. Recency bias of Keshawn Vaughn has me spooked some. 

 

[Iceman03]

Our rankings might not even be that far apart - you can see that I have Carter a tier or more behind Bateman & Marshall.

And part of why he's as high as he is is that I'm not excited about many of the players who were drafted in the 50-120 range. I like Marshall, I like Dyami Brown (relative to his draft pick, but he only went 25 picks ahead of Carter), not much after that. Maybe I'm being too harsh on Eskridge? Do you actually have 24+ players ahead of Carter or are you just assigning him a round 3 grade?

I got to 20 players valued as first and second rounders not including IDP stuffs. He would be 21st for me after I went back and looked (22nd in PPR behind Amon-Ra). Guess you prove your point on that one. 

 

[ZWK]

Putting it all together into ppr rookie rankings (also available in spreadsheet format)

Pos    Player    Team    Pick
WR    Ja'Marr Chase    CIN    5
RB    Najee Harris    PIT    24
RB    Travis Etienne    JAX    25
TE    Kyle Pitts    ATL    4
RB    Javonte Williams    DEN    35

WR    Jaylen Waddle    MIA    6
WR    Devonta Smith    PHI    10

WR    Rashod Bateman    BAL    27
QB    Trevor Lawrence    JAX    1

WR    Elijah Moore    NYJ    34
WR    Kadarius Toney    NYG    20
WR    Rondale Moore    ARI    49
WR    Terrace Marshall Jr.    CAR    59

QB    Trey Lance    SF    3
QB    Justin Fields    CHI    11
RB    Trey Sermon    SF    88
RB    Michael Carter    NYJ    107
QB    Zach Wilson    NYJ    2
WR    Dyami Brown    WAS    82

RB    Kenneth Gainwell    PHI    150
WR    Amari Rodgers    GB    85
WR    D'Wayne Eskridge    SEA    56
QB    Mac Jones    NE    15
TE    Pat Freiermuth    PIT    55
RB    Rhamondre Stevenson    NE    120
WR    Nico Collins    HOU    89
RB    Elijah Mitchell    SF    194
RB    Chuba Hubbard    CAR    126
WR    Tutu Atwell    LAR    57
RB    Kene Nwangwu    MIN    119
WR    Josh Palmer    LAC    77
WR    Jaelon Darden    TB    129
WR    Tylan Wallace    BAL    131
WR    Amon-Ra St. Brown    DET    112
TE    Tommy Tremble    CAR    83
TE    Hunter Long    MIA    81
WR    Anthony Schwartz    CLE    91

TE    Kylen Granson    IND    127
TE    Brevin Jordan    HOU    147
TE    Sammis Reyes    WAS    n/a
TE/WR    Jacob Harris    LAR    141
QB    Davis Mills    HOU    67
RB    Khalil Herbert    CHI    217
RB    Chris Evans    CIN    202
RB    Gerrid Doaks    MIA    244
TE    Tre' McKitty    LAC    97
RB/WR    Demetric Felton    CLE    211
WR    Simi Fehoko    DAL    179
WR    Cornell Powell    KC    181
WR    Dez Fitzpatrick    TEN    109
TE    Zach Davidson    MIN    168
WR    Michael Strachan    IND    229
WR    Ihmir Smith-Marsette    MIN    157
RB    Larry Rountree III    LAC    198
QB    Kellen Mond    MIN    66
QB    Kyle Trask    TB    64

RB    Jake Funk    LAR    233
RB    Kylin Hill    GB    256
RB    Jermar Jefferson    DET    257
WR    Marquez Stevenson    BUF    203
WR    Jalen Camp    JAX    209
TE    John Bates    WAS    124
TE    Noah Gray    KC    162
RB    Gary Brightwell    NYG    196
WR    Frank Darby    ATL    187
WR    Shi Smith    CAR    204
WR    Seth Williams    DEN    219
QB    Ian Book    NO    133

A bit of tinkering: I've moved Eskridge up to the top of his tier, Fitzpatrick up ahead of Felton, Powell up behind Fitzpatrick's new spot, and added TE Kenny Yeboah to the last tier.

Eskridge - my formula liked him pre-draft (albeit with some question marks), he was projected to be a 3rd rounder, and then he was drafted in the late 2nd. Doesn't really make sense to have him behind someone like Amari Rodgers who my formula didn't like & was drafted a round later. Rodgers's biggest plus is a quarterback who might not even stick around for long (or at all). I can even see a case for Eskridge over Brown - drafted a round earlier, 1 of the 2 good WRs in Seattle is oldish (unlike Washington), and I think Eskridge fits the Tate/Baldwin/Lockett type that has had some success with the Seahawks. I'm not going to draft him ahead of Brown at this point, but that tier gap doesn't look as clear now.

Fitzpatrick I definitely dislike where he was drafted by Tennessee, but my rankings had him behind receivers who were drafted 70-100 picks after him, and I don't even especially like those receivers. Too big a gap in draft capital to put him behind them.

Out of the three guys he leapfrogged, the one where I felt the most resistance is Cornell Powell in KC. His great QB situation looks to be stable, and look how much love guys like Byron Pringle & Demarcus Robinson are getting just for being in that offense. So I'm at least moving him up a couple spots.

Yeboah got the most guaranteed money out of all the UDFAs who have signed since the draft, and he went to NYJ which seems to have an opening at TE, and I liked him pre-draft, so he seems maybe worth rostering in TE premium. Probably behind Bates & Gray.

 

[ZWK]

I got to 20 players valued as first and second rounders not including IDP stuffs. He would be 21st for me after I went back and looked (22nd in PPR behind Amon-Ra). Guess you prove your point on that one. 

Cool. It's been a good discussion, even if we're not that far apart (PPR rookie 17 vs 22). Sounds like we might disagree more about Amon-Ra and at least 1 other guy in your top 20 than we do about Carter.

 

[Iceman03]

Cool. It's been a good discussion, even if we're not that far apart (PPR rookie 17 vs 22). Sounds like we might disagree more about Amon-Ra and at least 1 other guy in your top 20 than we do about Carter.

I wouldn’t put up much of a fight on Amon-Ra. In fact I was arguing against him being a 2nd rounder too until it became apparent that this class was going to be on the short end. 

Looking at your rankings I start to deviate around tier 4. I have Mac Jones and Friermuth higher (though Friermuth is on the edge since he didn’t test athletically). Toney I have lower too (didn’t have him graded very well predraft).

 

[Ilov80s]

I am definitely going to be a bit higher than most on ARSB just given the immediate opportunity. I feel like he could hold or increase value better than some of the other WRs in his range just because 100+ targets is very much in the range of outcomes year 1. 

 

[Adso]

I felt better about him before the Elijah Mitchell pick. Shanahan doesn’t care and will replace RB’s on a whim. That said, Sermon has a RAS comparable to Miles Sanders just without the extra gear in the 40. He was an outlier statistically but I liked what he brought to the table as an athlete and that seemed to be reflected in what the film grinders thought and draft capital. I’m trying to talk myself into him late 1 in standard leagues. Recency bias of Keshawn Vaughn has me spooked some. 

Agree with everything you're saying here. What sucks is it's starting to look like not only is he consistently going at the end of the 1st round but he's creeping even higher in some early drafts. 

• 1.08: https://www64.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=10447&O=17
  
• 1.13 but it's SF so basically 1.09: https://www74.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=40544&O=17
  
• 1.10: https://www61.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=63111&O=17
  
• 1.11: https://www73.myfantasyleague.com/2021/options?L=17844&O=17
  

Heck fantasypros has him at 1.13. I'm not going to be surprised when he starts going regularly in the 1.09-1.10 range.

 

[Tau837]

Shanahan doesn’t care and will replace RB’s on a whim

Is this really true? I thought I remembered someone posting last year to point out that the primary RB was very predictable game to game. It was different guys due to injury, but predictable. Can anyone verify that?

 

[woodstock]

Is this really true? I thought I remembered someone posting last year to point out that the primary RB was very predictable game to game. It was different guys due to injury, but predictable. Can anyone verify that?

Last year was predictable but for injury (to a degree, that is, and the person who wrote that has definitive ideas about Mostert in particular), but that's because Mostert had won the job in comparison to a bunch of UDFAs like Wilson and Hasty. He'd won it with his playoff performance the year prior and Coleman's poor play from the jump. It wasn't that settled, but Coleman's ineffectiveness and McKinnon's touch limitation made Mostert the clear starter for a bit before injury. Then Wilson was the clear starter, and had two whopping weeks while Mostert and the others were injured at the end of the year. Coleman and McKinnon have since departed. 

This year, with draft capital in the third round, Sermon, Mitchell, and the crew (Mostert, Wilson, Gallman, Hasty) are a different story. Nobody really knows if Mostert is the starter with the two draft additions. Sermon has a path to the job, it would seem, but the 49ers use their backs, as Matt Waldman says, like "golf clubs" so caveat emptor with that team. As far as dynasty goes, nobody but Sermon and Mitchell have deals through next year. This year is the end of the contract line for all four of the other guys, though who knows who will be retained. 

 

[joey]

Is this really true? I thought I remembered someone posting last year to point out that the primary RB was very predictable game to game. It was different guys due to injury, but predictable. Can anyone verify that?

I can say as an owner of both Mostert and then Wilson last year (and both on a dynasty team) whichever one is healthy and named the starter: START HIM. Only an in-game injury brought disappointing stats for my RB2/3 slot. 

 

[ZWK]

Timo Riske (pff_moo) has a new article at PFF (paywalled) looking at the track record of draft reaches & steals who were drafted earlier / later than projected. The basic finding is that "steals" are mostly an illusion - players who fall in the draft do so for good reason, and are worth about as much as the pick they're drafted with - but reaches are real. Eyeballing the graph, the value of a reach is worth about 60% where he was drafted & 40% where he was projected.

One thing that this means is that I can make reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings, which use that 60/40 split for actual vs projected draft position (only for players who were drafted before their projected draft position).

Player values should be the same as in my generic rookie rankings for every player who was drafted at or after his projected draft spot, and they should be lower for every player who was drafted ahead of his projected draft spot.

251    RB    Najee Harris    (pick 24, proj 22)
243    WR    Ja'Marr Chase    (pick 5, proj 4)
235    WR    Jaylen Waddle    (pick 6, proj 7)
232    RB    Travis Etienne    (pick 25, proj 30)
226    TE    Kyle Pitts    (pick 4, proj 2)
217    WR    DeVonta Smith    (pick 10, proj 8 )
183    RB    Javonte Williams    (pick 35, proj 36)
162    WR    Kadarius Toney    (pick 20, proj 29)
156    QB    Trevor Lawrence    (pick 1, proj 1)
147    WR    Rashod Bateman    (pick 27, proj 28)
119    WR    Elijah Moore    (pick 34, proj 35)
119    QB    Zach Wilson    (pick 2, proj 6)
107    QB    Trey Lance    (pick 3, proj 12)
91    QB    Justin Fields    (pick 11, proj 5)
88    WR    Rondale Moore    (pick 49, proj 37)
85    RB    Trey Sermon    (pick 88, proj 104)
82    WR    Terrace Marshall Jr.    (pick 59, proj 34)
80    WR    D'Wayne Eskridge    (pick 56, proj 73)
78    RB    Michael Carter    (pick 107, proj 71)
77    QB    Mac Jones    (pick 15, proj 24)
69    WR    Dyami Brown    (pick 82, proj 64)
67    WR    Amari Rodgers    (pick 85, proj 80)
64    WR    Tutu Atwell    (pick 57, proj 111)
64    WR    Nico Collins    (pick 89, proj 86)
62    RB    Chuba Hubbard    (pick 126, proj 123)
61    RB    Rhamondre Stevenson    (pick 120, proj 133)
54    TE    Pat Freiermuth    (pick 55, proj 50)
45    WR    Anthony Schwartz    (pick 91, proj 131)
44    WR    Josh Palmer    (pick 77, proj 171)
44    RB    Kene Nwangwu    (pick 119, proj unr)
43    TE    Tommy Tremble    (pick 83, proj 85)
41    TE    Hunter Long    (pick 81, proj 91)
35    WR    Amon-Ra St. Brown    (pick 112, proj 66)
34    RB    Kenneth Gainwell    (pick 150, proj 84)
24    WR    Dez Fitzpatrick    (pick 109, proj 209)
21    WR    Tylan Wallace    (pick 131, proj 67)
21    TE    Tre' McKitty    (pick 97, proj 178)
21    WR    Jaelon Darden    (pick 129, proj 136)
13    RB    Elijah Mitchell    (pick 194, proj 179)
11    RB    Gary Brightwell    (pick 196, proj unr)
11    QB    Kyle Trask    (pick 64, proj 83)
10    TE    John Bates    (pick 124, proj 245)
10    QB    Kellen Mond    (pick 66, proj 97)
10    RB    Larry Rountree III    (pick 198, proj 202)
10    QB    Davis Mills    (pick 67, proj 107)
10    TE    Kylen Granson    (pick 127, proj 225)
9    TE    Jacob Harris    (pick 141, proj 271)

The guys who lose the most value by doing reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings rather than ordinary generic rookie rankings are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, Dez Fitzpatrick, Tutu Atwell, Anthony Schwartz, Tre' McKitty, John Bates, Kylen Granson, & Jacob Harris.

 

[Ilov80s]

@ZWK Sell me on Toney beyond draft capital 

 

[tangfoot]

Player values should be the same as in my generic rookie rankings for every player who was drafted at or after his projected draft spot, and they should be lower for every player who was drafted ahead of his projected draft spot.

I think you've got this backwards.  The reaches should be bumped up and the "steals" should drop a bit.

 

[ZWK]

@ZWK Sell me on Toney beyond draft capital 

The first / most important thing I look for in a WR prospect is: did he ever have a good season?

I think there's a pretty strong case for Toney that the answer is yes, or at least borderline.

In 11 games this year he had 70/984/10 receiving, plus another 19/161/1 rushing, for 1145 YFS & 11 TD. So we're looking at 1 touchdown and over 100 yards per game, which is pretty good. Other ways of looking at it: in the 11 games he played in, it was 2.31 recyd per team attempt, 23% MS of recyd, 22% MS of rectd, 1.58 scrimmage yards per team play, 20% MS of offensive yards, 20% MS of offensive TD. Those numbers range from averageish to good - the 22-23% rec MS are most average, the 1.58 scrimmage yards per play is good. It's better than what we saw from a lot of early round busts who never had a good college season (Patterson, Treadwell, Heyward-Bey, etc.).

We can also look at how he got those totals. He did it efficiently, at 11.7 YPT and 8.5 yd/carry, which is a good sign. He didn't just catch WR screens and such - 7 of his 70 receptions (10%) were 20+ yards downfield, and 17 (24%) were in the 10-19 yard range. Those percentages are close to average relative to the rest of this WR class (averages are 14% & 24%). He also rarely dropped passes (drops are often a problem for guys with some good attributes but questionable WR skills, like Stephen Hill & Hakeem Butler).

Most successful NFL WRs have a good size+athleticism combo. With a few exceptions (like Jarvis Landry & Antonio Brown), their size rating plus their athleticism rating is above average. Toney easily clears that bar, with great athleticism (40 time & jumps) and just slightly below average size. (This is less relevant if you're already crediting him for his draft capital, since NFL teams clearly take this into account - most early round WRs have a good size+athleticism combo.)

Successful NFL WRs with below average size are often guys who are dangerous with the ball in their hands (some discussion in this twitter thread). A lot of them had multiple non-receiving TDs: Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Steve Smith, TY Hilton, DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Santana Moss, Tyler Lockett, Percy Harvin, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb. Toney scored as a punt returner & twice as a rusher, and he also obviously qualifies as "dangerous with the ball in his hands" if you watch the tape or look at his after-the-catch stats on receptions. I think this stuff matters partly because it's good to be dangerous after the catch in the NFL, and partly because these skills at least sometimes translate into route-running skills.

Obvious negatives:

1) His production this year was pretty good / borderline good / it depends how you look at it, rather than obviously really good (like, say Brandon Aiyuk 2019).

2) There are questions about his WR skills / route running. He runs routes like he's trying to juke the defender. Seems bad for timing routes where the QB needs to trust him. Also seems like a pretty boom-or-bust approach to route running, where maybe he gets very open sometimes but also he might often fail to get open or take too long. Rated poorly in Reception Perception (which evaluates each play based on a yes-or-no "did he get open?"); maybe if each play was categorized into 3 or 4 levels of openness he'd have more than his share of "very open" plays? Maybe he'll improve, or maybe NYG will find a role for him which uses this skillset well?

3) One year wonder / late breakout. He has some excuse, as a high school QB, but it's better to produce more sooner rather than breaking out late and having some excuse for it.

On the whole, I like him on day 2 but not on day 1 for an NFL team. I can definitely see a case for putting him behind 3 of the rd2 WRs, Moore, Moore, and Marshall, though I currently have him in the middle of that group. I wouldn't put him any later than that.

 

[ZWK]

I think you've got this backwards.  The reaches should be bumped up and the "steals" should drop a bit.

Reaches rate better after the draft than they did before the draft, but they rate lower after the draft than drafted-as-expected guys who were drafted at the same spot in the draft.

Steals rate worse after the draft than they did before the draft, and (according to the PFF analysis) they rate the same as the drafted-as-expected guys who were drafted at the same spot in the draft.

 

[Ilov80s]

1) His production this year was pretty good / borderline good / it depends how you look at it, rather than obviously really good (like, say Brandon Aiyuk 2019).

Thank you that's a really well detailed breakdown. Better than I think I've gotten anywhere else. The Aiyuk comp is an interesting one given their later breakout.  Toney had 1145/11 on offense this last season plus a punt return TD in 11 games. In 2019, Aiyuk had 1198/8 plus a punt return TD in 12 games. Plus when you look at level of competition, clearly SEC>>>PAC10. Also Toney was competing for offensive touches with Kyle Pitts. I don't think there was anyone of significance competing with Aiyuk in 2019. This actually has made me feel a little better about Toney. I just wish NYG had a different OC. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Timo Riske (pff_moo) has a new article at PFF (paywalled) looking at the track record of draft reaches & steals who were drafted earlier / later than projected. The basic finding is that "steals" are mostly an illusion - players who fall in the draft do so for good reason, and are worth about as much as the pick they're drafted with - but reaches are real. Eyeballing the graph, the value of a reach is worth about 60% where he was drafted & 40% where he was projected.

One thing that this means is that I can make reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings, which use that 60/40 split for actual vs projected draft position (only for players who were drafted before their projected draft position).

Player values should be the same as in my generic rookie rankings for every player who was drafted at or after his projected draft spot, and they should be lower for every player who was drafted ahead of his projected draft spot.

251    RB    Najee Harris    (pick 24, proj 22)
243    WR    Ja'Marr Chase    (pick 5, proj 4)
235    WR    Jaylen Waddle    (pick 6, proj 7)
232    RB    Travis Etienne    (pick 25, proj 30)
226    TE    Kyle Pitts    (pick 4, proj 2)
217    WR    DeVonta Smith    (pick 10, proj 8 )
183    RB    Javonte Williams    (pick 35, proj 36)
162    WR    Kadarius Toney    (pick 20, proj 29)
156    QB    Trevor Lawrence    (pick 1, proj 1)
147    WR    Rashod Bateman    (pick 27, proj 28)
119    WR    Elijah Moore    (pick 34, proj 35)
119    QB    Zach Wilson    (pick 2, proj 6)
107    QB    Trey Lance    (pick 3, proj 12)
91    QB    Justin Fields    (pick 11, proj 5)
88    WR    Rondale Moore    (pick 49, proj 37)
85    RB    Trey Sermon    (pick 88, proj 104)
82    WR    Terrace Marshall Jr.    (pick 59, proj 34)
80    WR    D'Wayne Eskridge    (pick 56, proj 73)
78    RB    Michael Carter    (pick 107, proj 71)
77    QB    Mac Jones    (pick 15, proj 24)
69    WR    Dyami Brown    (pick 82, proj 64)
67    WR    Amari Rodgers    (pick 85, proj 80)
64    WR    Tutu Atwell    (pick 57, proj 111)
64    WR    Nico Collins    (pick 89, proj 86)
62    RB    Chuba Hubbard    (pick 126, proj 123)
61    RB    Rhamondre Stevenson    (pick 120, proj 133)
54    TE    Pat Freiermuth    (pick 55, proj 50)
45    WR    Anthony Schwartz    (pick 91, proj 131)
44    WR    Josh Palmer    (pick 77, proj 171)
44    RB    Kene Nwangwu    (pick 119, proj unr)
43    TE    Tommy Tremble    (pick 83, proj 85)
41    TE    Hunter Long    (pick 81, proj 91)
35    WR    Amon-Ra St. Brown    (pick 112, proj 66)
34    RB    Kenneth Gainwell    (pick 150, proj 84)
24    WR    Dez Fitzpatrick    (pick 109, proj 209)
21    WR    Tylan Wallace    (pick 131, proj 67)
21    TE    Tre' McKitty    (pick 97, proj 178)
21    WR    Jaelon Darden    (pick 129, proj 136)
13    RB    Elijah Mitchell    (pick 194, proj 179)
11    RB    Gary Brightwell    (pick 196, proj unr)
11    QB    Kyle Trask    (pick 64, proj 83)
10    TE    John Bates    (pick 124, proj 245)
10    QB    Kellen Mond    (pick 66, proj 97)
10    RB    Larry Rountree III    (pick 198, proj 202)
10    QB    Davis Mills    (pick 67, proj 107)
10    TE    Kylen Granson    (pick 127, proj 225)
9    TE    Jacob Harris    (pick 141, proj 271)

The biggest fallers are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, Dez Fitzpatrick, Tutu Atwell, Anthony Schwartz, Tre' McKitty, John Bates, Kylen Granson, & Jacob Harris.

I am a little unsure how guys drafted way ahead of where they were projected are fallers? 

 

[ZWK]

OK, I see how that phrasing is confusing (the last sentence which says "The biggest fallers are Josh Palmer..."). I was trying to say "The guys who lose the most value by doing reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings rather than ordinary generic rookie rankings are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu,the guys who have less value according to this method than they do with my usual generic rookie rankings method are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, etc." I'll go back and edit that.

 

[Ilov80s]

OK, I see how that phrasing is confusing (the last sentence which says "The biggest fallers are Josh Palmer..."). I was trying to say "The guys who lose the most value by doing reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings rather than ordinary generic rookie rankings are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu,the guys who have less value according to this method than they do with my usual generic rookie rankings method are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, etc." I'll go back and edit that.

Ok, I get what you are saying. Who is the one setting the projected pick number? 

 

[ZWK]

I got them from Arif Hasan's consensus big board (paywall). Other sources like NFL Mock Draft Database mostly had pretty similar projected picks.

 

[-OZ-]

Tight ends with an above average size+athleticism combo (in order, best to averagest):

Kyle Pitts
Sammis Reyes
Briley Moore
Zach Davidson
Tommy Tremble
Kylen Granson
Brock Wright
Noah Gray

Kyle Pitts I believe I've mentioned before.

Sammis Reyes is a 25-year-old Chilean former basketball player with great size & great hops who has already signed with the Football Team in Washington.

Reyes, Moore, Davidson, and Granson all have profiles that offer at least a glimmer of hope. And I guess Tremble too, following the scouts who like him. Wright & Gray not so much. With Pitts it's a bit more than a glimmer.

Is Reyes getting drafted in most leagues? I've been the one selecting him in mine so far, 4th round in one, 5th in a large idp league (was strongly considering surtain instead but you can get decent scoring corners off the waivers). I figure he's worth taking there but haven't seen much discussion about him.

 

[Blackbear]

Timo Riske (pff_moo) has a new article at PFF (paywalled) looking at the track record of draft reaches & steals who were drafted earlier / later than projected. The basic finding is that "steals" are mostly an illusion - players who fall in the draft do so for good reason, and are worth about as much as the pick they're drafted with - but reaches are real. Eyeballing the graph, the value of a reach is worth about 60% where he was drafted & 40% where he was projected.

One thing that this means is that I can make reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings, which use that 60/40 split for actual vs projected draft position (only for players who were drafted before their projected draft position).

Player values should be the same as in my generic rookie rankings for every player who was drafted at or after his projected draft spot, and they should be lower for every player who was drafted ahead of his projected draft spot.

251    RB    Najee Harris    (pick 24, proj 22)
243    WR    Ja'Marr Chase    (pick 5, proj 4)
235    WR    Jaylen Waddle    (pick 6, proj 7)
232    RB    Travis Etienne    (pick 25, proj 30)
226    TE    Kyle Pitts    (pick 4, proj 2)
217    WR    DeVonta Smith    (pick 10, proj 8 )
183    RB    Javonte Williams    (pick 35, proj 36)
162    WR    Kadarius Toney    (pick 20, proj 29)
156    QB    Trevor Lawrence    (pick 1, proj 1)
147    WR    Rashod Bateman    (pick 27, proj 28)
119    WR    Elijah Moore    (pick 34, proj 35)
119    QB    Zach Wilson    (pick 2, proj 6)
107    QB    Trey Lance    (pick 3, proj 12)
91    QB    Justin Fields    (pick 11, proj 5)
88    WR    Rondale Moore    (pick 49, proj 37)
85    RB    Trey Sermon    (pick 88, proj 104)
82    WR    Terrace Marshall Jr.    (pick 59, proj 34)
80    WR    D'Wayne Eskridge    (pick 56, proj 73)
78    RB    Michael Carter    (pick 107, proj 71)
77    QB    Mac Jones    (pick 15, proj 24)
69    WR    Dyami Brown    (pick 82, proj 64)
67    WR    Amari Rodgers    (pick 85, proj 80)
64    WR    Tutu Atwell    (pick 57, proj 111)
64    WR    Nico Collins    (pick 89, proj 86)
62    RB    Chuba Hubbard    (pick 126, proj 123)
61    RB    Rhamondre Stevenson    (pick 120, proj 133)
54    TE    Pat Freiermuth    (pick 55, proj 50)
45    WR    Anthony Schwartz    (pick 91, proj 131)
44    WR    Josh Palmer    (pick 77, proj 171)
44    RB    Kene Nwangwu    (pick 119, proj unr)
43    TE    Tommy Tremble    (pick 83, proj 85)
41    TE    Hunter Long    (pick 81, proj 91)
35    WR    Amon-Ra St. Brown    (pick 112, proj 66)
34    RB    Kenneth Gainwell    (pick 150, proj 84)
24    WR    Dez Fitzpatrick    (pick 109, proj 209)
21    WR    Tylan Wallace    (pick 131, proj 67)
21    TE    Tre' McKitty    (pick 97, proj 178)
21    WR    Jaelon Darden    (pick 129, proj 136)
13    RB    Elijah Mitchell    (pick 194, proj 179)
11    RB    Gary Brightwell    (pick 196, proj unr)
11    QB    Kyle Trask    (pick 64, proj 83)
10    TE    John Bates    (pick 124, proj 245)
10    QB    Kellen Mond    (pick 66, proj 97)
10    RB    Larry Rountree III    (pick 198, proj 202)
10    QB    Davis Mills    (pick 67, proj 107)
10    TE    Kylen Granson    (pick 127, proj 225)
9    TE    Jacob Harris    (pick 141, proj 271)

The guys who lose the most value by doing reach-adjusted generic rookie rankings rather than ordinary generic rookie rankings are Josh Palmer, Kene Nwangwu, Dez Fitzpatrick, Tutu Atwell, Anthony Schwartz, Tre' McKitty, John Bates, Kylen Granson, & Jacob Harris.

You have Marshall very low on this list IMHO. But the proof is in the putting. 

 

[ZWK]

Is Reyes getting drafted in most leagues? I've been the one selecting him in mine so far, 4th round in one, 5th in a large idp league (was strongly considering surtain instead but you can get decent scoring corners off the waivers). I figure he's worth taking there but haven't seen much discussion about him.

Seems like a good late-round target - high ceiling, and we could learn a lot about him this offseason (which would make him either clearly worth rostering or droppable). Depends some on league format.

According to MFL, Sammis Reyes is being drafted in only 9% of leagues and 10 rookie TEs are being drafted more often. In Zealots leagues, he's being drafted in 18% of leagues and 6 rookie TEs are being drafted more often. So it looks like he's usually going undrafted (though those numbers might be screwy with him signing before the NFL draft, or with rookie drafts still in progress).

You have Marshall very low on this list IMHO. But the proof is in the putting. 

It's just generic rankings based on draft order (& projected draft order). So blame the NFL for letting him fall to 59. (My personal rankings have him earlier.)

 

[Tau837]

You have Marshall very low on this list IMHO. But the proof is in the putting. 

Putting? How does golf performanc relate here?