More stats on the top 6 quarterbacks.
Kevin Cole
adjusts sack numbers adjusts sack numbers for time-to-sack and time-to-throw to better focus on the QB's contribution to sacks. Willis & Howell look real bad, even worse than I thought.
Mark Wood & Nate Manzo have overall QB performance ratings for the
2021,
2020, and
2019 seasons based on an equal mixture of 3 advanced stats: PFF grade, ESPN's QBR, and a completions over expected metric which blends CPOE & CAYOE (
CFBNumbers also has takes a similar look at 2021). Their numbers agree with my less-advanced
QB production metric that this class looks pretty weak, that the best 3 seasons by these 6 QBs were Corral 2020, Howell 2020, and Pickett 2021 in that order, and that 2021 was Pickett's only good year. A few places where they disagree with my numbers: they are a bit higher on those top 3 seasons than my numbers are, with a wider gap between Pickett 2021 & the field. On the whole they are a bit higher on Willis & Strong, and a bit lower on Ridder. Corral & Howell look like the clear top 2 on the whole by their numbers - Corral has the best 2-year run, Howell the best 3-year run. Then on another tier it's Willis, Pickett, Ridder, and Strong in that order, with a gap between Pickett & Ridder (and there's a case for Pickett>Willis if you put more weight on best / most recent season).
Zooming in on the accuracy metric CPOE, based on the
CFBNumbers 2021 post, a
PFF post breaking down 2021 CPOE by pass distance, and a
2020 PFF post looking at 2019 & 2020 stats and the predictiveness of CPOE: surprisingly Carson Strong was the most accurate quarterback of the bunch by CPOE, with consistently good CPOE across all three years and across all distances in 2021. CPOE is generally pretty stable from year-to-year, but that was not so true of the rest of this group. Pickett shot up from worst of the bunch in 2020 to 2nd best (behind Strong) in 2021, also with good 2021 accuracy at all levels. Corral went in the opposite direction, going from best CPOE of the bunch in 2020 to worst in 2021, with bad 2021 accuracy at all levels. Howell had good accuracy in 2019-20 (up there with Strong) but dropped in 2021, though not as far as Corral, and he did manage to have good 2021 accuracy on short throws near the line of scrimmage but not at any farther distances. Willis & Ridder also had middling to poor 2021 accuracy but were good on short throws. For overall career accuracy based on 2019-21 CPOE, the 6 QBs rank: Strong, Howell, Corral, Willis, Pickett, Ridder.
Especially relevant for fantasy: Willis is the clear top runner among the bunch, then the trio of Howell, Corral, and Ridder (in some order), then Pickett, then Strong at the bottom not even outrushing his sacks.
So overall based on the numbers I've seen, it still looks like a pretty weak class with a top tier of Corral and Howell, in that order, and the size of the gap between them depends on how worried you are about Howell's sacks. At this point I'd say that Pickett & Willis are a second tier, order unclear for NFL purposes, Willis clearly ahead for fantasy purposes based on his running. Pickett's 2021 was good, but it was his only good season, and he was a 5th year senior throwing to Jordan Addison. Willis has 2 solid years and elite rushing ability, but has those sack issues. Then there's Strong & Ridder on the next tier, again order unclear for NFL but with the better runner (Ridder) having a clear edge for fantasy.
Based on tape watching,
Lance Zierlein is also not that high on anyone in this class; he's highest on Corral, Pickett, Ridder, and Willis (in that order but pretty tightly packed) & pretty down on the other two.
Mock drafts currently have it Pickett, Willis, Corral / Howell / Ridder, Strong.
So those are both lower on Howell, and they have Pickett & Willis together in the top tier with Corral. Which means that if I had an actual fantasy draft today, I probably wouldn't have Howell second and I definitely wouldn't have him a tier ahead of Willis & Pickett.
